 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot-com as we are taking a look at both college basketball and the NBA today with Canada Barkley find him on Twitter At Lockie Lockerson getting thoughts on his process and how different those two sports are for him from a betting perspective My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire dot-com joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power egg dot-com and find it on Twitter at the power egg Ed Super Bowl 54 in the books and he read is a Super Bowl champion. Yeah, I'm doing great man Super Bowl Sunday was like pretty awesome. So we made some dinner with some friends. So we had some pork tacos with Some sauce that my friend made it's delicious, but basically my favorite thing to eat in the world that I make I'm in the game started and You know, I had I had two props at the no safety and and the most dirt under because you know when Eric Eager and J A's accurate and tell me they'd like something You know, that's that's something I want to look into and honestly those are like about the two least You know stress-free bets I maybe ever had in my life So, you know the offense was pretty good None of them were even kind of in the range of getting a safety And most there was you know, pretty, you know, he kind of just didn't get enough carries Even though he was he was pretty efficient when he did get the ball So and then Kansas City won which obviously was very much in question kind of even late in that game. Oh, yes So so it worked out on Sunday. It was it was a pretty good day. I have zero complaints I had plenty of complaints for the first three quarters But I I was watching it with a group of like 10 people and I don't think any of them watch football ever well, yeah, it was during the game and I am very nervous the entire time because I had I'd gotten Kansas City minus one And I'd gotten the over on their team total of 27 and a half and they're down by 10. I'm like Whatever, I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy the game. This is done. It's fine. Whatever and then they score Yeah, they get ahead and I'm like, okay. I was still pretty composed by that point No, but you had to think your team total was done though. Oh, no, no, no I I had resigned I was still I saw it some hope for the for the spread the team total I was like, yeah, maybe drop a lot there as a pick six or something That was like my one hope and then they gave the ball back and I was like well At least, you know, I got the spread and then Damian Williams who I also had a lot of in DFS Busts around the outside. I start screaming my face and everyone's like, you know, this dude is Deranged and I don't blame them because it was pretty deranged But it was a combination of an over on a team total that I had accepted was gonna was gonna die Combined with the major DFS interest I had in Damian Williams having life and he goes nuts. So I Think that that sounds sounds like a good night. I can remember a time I've gotten that okay one time when the Vikings had The music center the the Minneapolis miracle I freaked out because I'm like from Minnesota I'm not a Vikings fan like I'm from there and like I freaked out more there but in my sports watching life because of this team total I Happened to freak out and it was like kind of embarrassing But I also did not care because it was financially profitable. So who cares? Those other nine people need to learn that sports betting is legal and that's what's gonna happen when they watch things like the Super Bowl That's right Super Bowl is obviously fascinating because it is kind of one time nowadays that everyone is watching the same thing right and so, you know, I'm Obviously interested in football my Twitter timeline is all about the length of the national anthem and all that stuff And then my wife's on Facebook and everyone's talking about the halftime show but it's everyone's watching the same thing which is kind of cool and Might might be the last thing where we really have that right? It's just sports in general I think are like the last thing where we really have that so that's really fun We did a prop contest with the people at the party a lot of them were not football related He did pick the winner and the final margin of victory My sister did not trust me to time the national anthem She timed it herself even though I had my phone out because she is a very competitive person and refused to believe whatever number I had so I think that explains a lot about me and my family for sure We're gonna talk some basketball in just a bit with Ken and Barkley find him on Twitter at Locky Lockerson He is a co-host on you better you bet one of the staples as far as providing hosts here on covering the spread He also has a patreon page where he publishes his own college basketball and NBA ratings You can find that by going to his Twitter page again at Locky Lockerson I can find that there and subscribe to his patreon as well So make sure you do check that out only one podcast for this week So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast So you get our next one right when it is posted just search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And while you're there on Apple podcasts, please leave a rating and review as well before we dive into Basketball that we got a lot to recap from the Super Bowl and some props that were very profitable especially from JJ So let's break those down first covering the past All right, let's look back at what we had here on covering the spread for the Super Bowl only a couple of actually bets on the game itself I'd be over as mentioned on the chiefs team total at 27 and a half Whalecapper had the chiefs minus one and a half along with the over at 54 The over on the game did not hit but my team total did and whale hit the spread as well at minus one and a half So game profitable for player pop props my goodness JJ JJ Zachary So find him on Twitter at late round QB. He had Patrick Mahomes at 20 to 1 to score the first touchdown Mahomes almost scored right away And when he got to the 15-yard line, I thought of JJ. I was like, oh my gosh He's gonna run it in and JJ's gonna win it and then he got it on the option keeper So awesome call by JJ there. He also mentioned Jeff Wilson at 43 to 1 and Wilson did wind up being active So that that was not avoided But he did get some action doesn't really matter because JJ hit at 20 to 1 on the Holmes anyway So that will totally work. I also had George Kittle at 9 to 1 to win to score first That one did not score there JJ actually hit the over or hit the other two bets. He had as well He had the over on Damian Williams rush attempts at 12 and a half He had 17 there so got that one pretty easily He also had the under on Rocky Moster. It's rushing yardage total as did you at 77 and a half as did Dr. Eric Eager So JJ is 2 for 2 on knocking it out of the park You're uncovering the spread with his player props as far as Dr. Eric Eager He had the under on Moster's rushing prop 2 so Both them and you were spot on there Other props from Eric a couple unders from Sammy Watkins is catch prop at 4 and a half He had 5 so over by 1 there the yardage prop with 67 and a half I thought that Eric was right with both those Oh, but the over did hit on those and then he also had Diba Samuel over 54 and a half yards Diba finished with 39 receiving But he had 53 rushing So if you liked Diba and were able to find his total yardage prop as opposed to just receiving You would have hit there and Diba gets a lot of rushing volume like two carries per game or so So I'm receiving alone that one did come a bit short but still really just an awesome Super Bowl all around it and It's nice when things play out the way you expect them to because it doesn't happen all the time Yeah, absolutely. I mean at one point in the middle of the third quarter. I mean Mahomes is having his worst game ever I mean, we're kind of looking at somebody's throws and I mean, they were they were pretty bad. Yeah, and then he ends up winning the MVP So I find it. I think you should have an MVP. What did you think you should have an MVP? I did personally but well all the all the people that Vote for this are clearly reading all the analytics guy saying that running backs don't matter We can we can take joy in that fact. Yeah But yeah, definitely Prost to JJ and Eric for for the most sort of thing Like I I don't want anyone to think that I originated that at all. Yeah, I trust those guys. I I looked up some numbers You know, just see what is you know, what his yardage tools and his carries were and it was like, yeah This this seems this seems very Like a recency bias type number and it became pretty evident I would say Thursday that Tevin Coleman is gonna play Because he was a full practice on either Thursday or Friday. I think it was Thursday So if you knew that and were aware of that Tevin Coleman, they like most it off the bench Tevin Coleman is gonna get the first carry. He does pretty much every game I think Matt Brita did once but it was very profitable. So Cheers all around on the Raheem Moster one The other thing that closed on Sunday was I had the cheese today to one to win the Super Bowl from the preseason that was the week after I believe Andrew Luck retired because I thought it was a good time to dive into the ASC futures market because of You know luck taking out one team I thought had a decent chance to contend in the ASC so that led to Betting the Ravens to make the playoffs betting the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl and I think it was betting to Sean Watson To win MVP. I think those were the three that trickled down from that. So I think overall just looking for Changes in the landscape that occur You know late in the running where you can find and it's not just like for one team The ripple effects of things are pretty important didn't work with the Sean Watson But I worked with the Ravens and with the Chiefs I had the Packers at 17 to 1 to obviously that one did not work out But and I felt bad because it was like I was the only person reading for the Packers When people I follow on Twitter, but hey, I'll take the cheese today to one still no complains No, but I mean I like the Packers this preseason. Yeah as well, right? I kind of talked about Aaron Rodgers getting back to his usual self all these high draft texts in the secondary Living up to the potential and even one worked out. Yeah And I can't wait to see what the books open the Packers win till next year. What do you think it's gonna be? So I think that there was enough pessimism around the Packers from a betting perspective this year Where I wouldn't be shocked if it's kind lower than we expect. I think that's the way I'd phrase it. I Don't know. What do you think I would say 10 and I would look I would go immediately under 10 I was gonna say nine and a half Just because like The Vikings are still probably gonna be good. I mean they've got some really bad cap issues but yeah, I would expect it to be around nine and a half maybe but I'm sure those will come out probably like when do those come out usually usually after the draft, okay So we'll have to see then At least at least it starts double digits. If not even slightly higher. I mean they were 13 and three There's gonna be a lot of that You know the Rams. I think the Rams were nine and a half this year, weren't they? Where they 10 where they 10, okay? Yeah, I can dig it up. But yeah, I don't know It'll be very interesting. I think that we all have teams. We've kind of flagged as far as like teams We want to monitor From that perspective, so we'll be talking about that plenty once those are posted And if you want to get in on the action check out the Fandall sportsbook in place your first bet today If you lose Fandall will give you a refund of up to five hundred dollars in site credit This is sportsbook.fandall.com for more details terms and conditions apply must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800 gambler Let's bring on Ken Barkley now again find him on Twitter at Locky Lockerson And make sure you go there and check out his patreon page to check out his college basketball and NBA ratings He is a co-host on you better you bet We're gonna pick his mind about how his NBA numbers work his style is a better and a couple of teams He's watching from a futures perspective across college basketball Covering the present Let's bring Ken Barkley here into covering the spread to talk a little bit of basketball finally getting a reprieve from all the football We've been discussing for the past decade. It feels like I can welcome to the show. How you doing today? I'm doing great guys Pleasure pleasure to be on with you and it's just sort of funny like you know I think usually when when people host a show you bring on an expert in a field to you know You hold them up as like we should learn something from this guy. I honestly think there's a very real chance I might actually end up learning more from both of you on the topics We're gonna discuss then you're gonna learn for me not with basketball for me. I can guarantee you that I am very In front about the fact that I don't know jack about basketball So I know Ed does but for me, this will be a learning experience So don't maybe sound, you know too low here You know, we gotta make things look a little bit better for sure But first of all, how is your Super Bowl? Ken, how things go there for you? It was it was profitable and and it was profitable and I didn't even bet on the game I didn't have the side or the total or any of the kind of like really basic derivative markets I made a lot of money on inside information on entertainment props was a big thing and just the network of people We all kind of half know or sort of get tips from or whatever There was some really obvious free money stuff that was out there So that was fun and then I had a sort of a game script for the game I thought where the Niners were clearly like their points We're gonna be distributed early in the game and the Chief's points We're gonna be distributed late in the game because of how each team has played so far So Niners to score first like you know Chief's live coming back a little bit that kind of stuff that stuff all ended up working really well, too That's awesome. Well, congratulations and starting or transitioning more fully into the basketball season on a good note here So Ken this first time we've had you on the show So we got to get a feel for you as a better, you know, what type of better Are you we've had a lot of numbers guys on here But obviously we've had some people who like try to use going against the numbers to their advantage, too What would you describe your method as a better for basketball? Sure. Absolutely. That's that's a that's a really really good question I think one of the things I try to do is bridge the gap between People who use solely intuition and people who use solely master than you know modeling or numbers or you know Computer learning all the machine learning all that kind of stuff where a lot of times the people in the in the qualitative side Are like I could never do what the number of people do and it's it's like the barrier to entry is enormous And so for those people I try to kind of be like no no no It's actually like not so difficult Here's some ways you can use those things to help you create your own kind of market ratings for stuff and figure out Where the prices are and all those kind of things and then for the people on the other side that are like 1 million percent Math driven with no intuition or qualitative whatsoever It's kind of like alright guys like clearly you're the more advanced members of the class But there are ways where just like sort of methodology that's not based in numbers can also be really helpful So I kind of like to go back and like my background is in verbal basically entirely and not math And I've had to learn the math So I try to feel like I'm the go-between between those two things so in the in the markets that I handicapped so basically You know I got my start doing a lot of futures and a lot of low-limit props Which I think a lot of people who are in the space that's how they started right you find Super super soft markets and you try to take advantage of them as best you can and I did that and the problem with that is it scales Even worse than everything else, which means once you get really good at something You're never ever ever gonna be able to bet on it and if you do it's for like a dollar So I you know I kind of exhausted a lot of those resources and then basically it was like alright It's time to move on to to bigger game right and try to really beat some of these things that the best of the best Try to try to beat on a daily basis and obviously that's much more difficult But it's also a lot more fun to try to solve that puzzle. So that's for me NBA sides college basketball sides in terms of the two things going on right now I also try very hard to beat a lot of the college football markets pre-season wise I've had incredible success with those wind totals futures, etc And so trying to kind of keep getting better at that too But for just right now NBA sides college sides and sort of a mix of I always think the best handicapping is Intuition and math kind of combined into an opinion So that's sort of like my approach and do you still go pretty heavy at the props as well? Yeah, I well, I mean You know you're constantly, you know, I think what people maybe don't realize, you know Obviously people who cover a gambling space casually or you know, I always see reporters from a certain sport be like Oh my god, you can bet on that like I'd get ten million dollars down the limits twenty dollars We aren't gonna get paid out from whoever you're betting with so like the props props are no different You know what? There are a few markets I'm really interested in trying to beat and I you know I sort of I go back and forth on whether they are beatable or whatever So I think of the of the props that I'm still allowed to bet on I wouldn't say I necessarily have any edges That I love all the all the edges that I gleaned and everything are sort of exhausted at this point So kind of completely agree the the combination of math and actually Intuition and watching games is the way to go you offer the math side on a service that you have on patreon Oh, you're doing both MBA and college basketball seems like something you started pretty recently Can you give us just the basic details behind what goes into your numbers? Sure? Absolutely So in I'll start by saying I think you will find for being the same sport This is this will sound crazy. I think you will find two markets that could not be more different Than NBA sides college basketball sides and here I'll just sort of explain what I mean by that So my college basketball approach is really really straightforward. There are whatever 300 and some odd teams. Let's say 352 something like that After every single game every night. I adjust each team's rating. It's a pace neutral rating in the market so it does not it's not affected by the total of the game or anything. It's just a pace neutral rating and After each game every team plays I adjust their rating based on not one bit what happened in the game But only what the closing prices were at sharp sports books create a consensus Like that's so if I made a game six and the market closed at pinnacle eight Then the correct answer was eight and I was incorrect and I need to adjust my ratings Accordingly, it's basically like the market efficiency hypothesis that people are familiar with that basically whatever the market said That was the right answer and my thing was not the right answer. So I need to change my ratings right away So my college approach is really just that and then some small tweaks for like really high profile injuries and those kind of like That's the only part where I'm really paying attention night-to-night to what's going on So a couple examples recently would be Xavier Simpson for Michigan when he was suspended and then played You know, you would see you know a big adjustment there It was about three and a half points to Michigan's rating and then Cole Anthony for North Carolina when he plays when he doesn't play We saw in last night's game. Once it was clear He was gonna play the market was very interested in North Carolina or at least, you know Books are interested in lowering their price on that game. So, you know, I'm making some adjustments there But really it's a very robotic Automated process and that's kind of how my college ratings are created And I only bet over nights with those and the reason I do that is that I'm not putting a lot of effort into Watching every game reading knowing a lot of sort of deep angles that exist out there I don't have the time to do that I do have the time to play soft over nights for low limits and beat those You know at basically about like 55 56 percent since the first couple weeks of the season when my ratings were kind of getting adjusted for each team So like that's my approach there It's simple, but it's also effective and then in NBA, you know, my approach is Sort of that plus a lot more things. So the ratings aren't gonna win you any money like in college I feel like having good ratings you can just beat over nights and that's that an NBA You can't it's just impossible and one of the reasons it is is like first of all Like the availability of information is very interesting. Everybody has access to the same stuff So I think there's sort of an agreed-upon spread for every game just using ratings Like there's no you you're never just gonna make money. I think in NBA sides just okay Well, I make the game 12 and it's 13. So like I have this much edge. That's how much I should bet Like NBA is true unpredictable. There's too much other stuff happening. That's not just what is the difference between the teams That's sort of like my hypothesis. So I spent a lot of my energy on Okay, like what's in the number and what's not in the number So like are all the injuries in is all the fatigue in are all the short-term indicators in are they not? Okay, then like this side is valuable or not or whatever. So I come up with a lot of sort of different metrics there I don't have a sort of a long-winded explanation, but I think that just sort of illustrates the difference between When you bet college sides, I think the approach can be simpler but still effective NBA To me, it's like though. It's like my white whale like if I can ever figure out how to solve this in a meaningful Hey, I think it'll be super valuable because it's it's that difficult. Yeah, absolutely I feel like in the NBA There's so many more type of player adjustments that you have to make with rest and everything else that's going on Luca Donchich being hurt now How much of that type of stuff in terms of rest player absences? How much is that automated versus? You're just kind of making your own adjustments in your head. Sure. That's a really good question So again one thing I like to do is Because I I feel like I can approach a lot of these markets with a lot of humility I can sort of also approach them with the understanding that if the market thinks a player is worth a certain amount Especially a star player and I think it's different. The market is probably right more often than not It's not like if I think Donchich is worth seven and the market says he's actually worth like four and a half Which is probably the right answer like the markets probably like, you know I only need to be proven wrong so many times before I'm like, you know what market like you got this You're all over it. I understand and with the with the star players in the NBA I think there is sort of agreed upon values That are very you can almost just have them be automated when you're making your new ratings So like I have a grid of ratings for all teams. So I have like my current rating for that team I have the rating that they were in the preseason Which is just derived from their closing win total and therefore like what the net rating would be for a team with that Win total so if a you know a team has a win total of 41 then their net rating would be zero something like that So, you know, you just use the wind tolls. That's how you start So I have those but then I also have a little tiny adjustment things though So if you know for the Raptors if Pascal Siakam is out and no one else's here's what the new rating is if Siakam's out And Gasol's out and you know Kyle Lowry's out. Here's the new rating for Toronto So I have all these like derivatives of that that I just kind of keep handy so that when I look at the injury report It's all mostly automated like oh this guy's out this guy's out. That's the rating LeBron's out That's the rating. Oh LeBron and Anthony Davis now. That's like 11 point adjustment. So Very automated. I think the market has a good idea for what those guys are worth because we consistently see it Game in and game out when guys miss games you see the same adjustment over and over and over again That's at least what the market thinks that guy's worth now You can argue whether that's true or not and it works the same with fatigue What's a back-to-back worth? What's a back-to-back at altitude worth all those kind of things? But I think what you see in the market is every time that instance comes up It's about the same sort of point adjustment in terms of the spread Interesting and I think that that makes a lot of sense. You just having it on hand So you can try to adjust before the markets adjust those things and having that I mean essentially be automated there Now one thing you mentioned is that you like to bet sides a lot and you like to bet them overnight In the NBA, we're getting close to the all-star break and I play a lot of DFS Which means the all-star break is like the boogeyman It's this hated thing that makes me want to just die at all times because there's a bunch of dudes who just rest randomly Yeah, does that impact your process from a betting perspective at all? Yes, it does and I should be I should provide more clarity to for based on a point that you said So college I bet over nights like I literally I will I'll bet over nights. I'll go to bed I'll never think about the spreads almost ever again until maybe right before the game And I'll see if there was steam or something that that made no sense that creates new edges that sort of pop out the other side NBA I'm waiting as long as possible to make my bets and that'll be that'll sort of set off alarm bells I think for anybody who bets over nights as like why on earth would you wait until the market was like it's most Robust and efficient to fire into these like what could you possibly be thinking and what I'm thinking is I would rather trade Accurate player information for a more efficient market only in the NBA like it's the only I have talks with people about this all the time And we are convinced like the NBA is like, you know Neptune and we're all playing the other sports are on earth You know, it's just like everything behaves differently The right time to do stuff is different that you know the availability of information the value of that information It all comes out before the game like I want to know everything and also the efficiency of the spread like from again ratings With your ratings like I'm gonna be able to with my market ratings Which is just based on my closing spreads the you know the previous games I can predict what the openers are gonna be within like a point a half point on almost every game Like there's no mystery there Like I know what the opener is gonna be and there's not a ton of steam in the NBA That's not driven by injury news Something doesn't just get steamed for no reason if a number moves like you know, I'm looking at like spreads right now So like Charlotte's playing Houston tonight like that number should be X but Capella is not playing so it's gonna be X Like there's no or why I guess so there's no there's no mystery there Like we all know what the number is gonna be so you you can't beat the spread By just knowing the answer to that question like you can in other sports So to me that means there's no problem in waiting like the numbers always gonna be an accurate reflection of Who's playing that night and what they're worth so I don't I can't try to get ahead of that I don't have better information than the people who do that and there are people who do that who try to you know I think LeBron might be out tonight at the second that I hear I'm gonna hit the market with that news before everybody else does like I can't do that first of all I have kids and a job and all that stuff, but I also You know like I can't be on Twitter all day and have access before everybody else So it is it's a it's this really really weird juxtaposition with college and NBA College I want to be the absolute first person in like I want to be in if I could just call the bookmaker before They put out overnight so I would call them and just be like can I bet into this first NBA? Could care less about what information is under the market because it's almost always being interpreted correctly So does that mean you bet for at the NBA? Do you bet more heavily on games that have a lot of injury news tied to them? It that's I think that I don't know if there's like a simple answer to that question So I don't think that's how I would separate big bets from small bets. I would say there are situations I would say for anybody who's sort of been paying attention to the league Milwaukee would present this Situation where an injury happens to a key player There is a like correct adjustment for that player So that would be Yanis the correct adjustment for him in the market seems to be something like four and a half points Okay, like that all makes sense Except that when he misses games the team actually just completely obliterates everybody So there are times where I will actually be hoping that he does not play in certain matchups in certain situations So that I can actually get a way better Milwaukee number because I'll have all these indicators that point to them being valuable that night That have nothing to do with whether Yanis is playing or not on the other hand. There'll be some teams where when they don't play guys I'm like at a total loss So Boston would be one of those teams because their replacements are excellent in almost every Position and their ability to develop a game plan, especially with time off is Incredible and it you are sometimes you don't see a drop off whatsoever for fatigue for injuries or anything So it's really at that sort of a team specific answer I think but there are there are situations where I'll bet injury games for a reason. There are also situations where I'll pass the reason Excellent in college basketball. Are there any teams that you're looking at that have been really profitable for you any teams that kind of stand out Like singularly profitable teams, that's a really good question probably Probably not Baylor has been a fascinating team I think for anybody who bets college basketball this year because their opponent takes money For basically about three weeks in a row their opponent has taken money in every single game that they've played in and I haven't been in on all of those I think the movement in a lot of cases has been justified, but I've been on Baylor a couple times in that stretch I think they've been a team that has just consistently exceeded market expectations to the point of almost Driving people mad the produce. I mean Eli the producer of my show that on is to convinced that this Incredible Baylor regression is just looming. It's just we've seen all the indicators or the identifiers And it's just it's gonna happen and it never ever ever happens and then last night Same thing happens and it takes this miraculous series of events They're playing Kansas State in Manhattan and the number closes seven bailers up like 12 with 40 seconds left Doesn't cover on this crate like missed free throws team scores the other way with like nine offensive read again Everything you could ever want so just I there is no team that I can point to and say oh I've won a lot of money on that team like I've been ahead of the market It's more like the small errors the market makes on all teams all the time That's like the aggregate of sort of how I profit in terms of a single team The one that's just interesting to me is Baylor sort of for the reasons I just said so let's talk more about Baylor here because right now they are co-favorites to win the Tournament right now over at Fandall Sportsbook. They're 10 to 1 same as Gonzaga and Kansas But there's only no team that kind of stands out right now a pretty flat odds across the board Do we need to stand out to you as being good buys from a futures perspective? Yeah, that's I mean That's a really good question. We're into that point of the season where you know I always think the the best time to bet this year has been a little different from what I'm about to say But I still think it holds so the best time to bet futures in college basketball To me is you want to be kind of like first in or last in so you want to bet the day the season starts Because you're gonna have information Detailed information about teams that the overall market maybe doesn't have so teams that are like 200 to 1 500 to 1 1,000 to 1 You know, whatever Baylor was before the year I want to say 200 in a few places West Virginia again like some of these teams that really either had bad seasons last year or People weren't necessarily expecting to be at San Diego State I guess is the perfect example of that you want to be first in on those teams at huge prices And that's the only team I would want to hold for a long time throughout the season because you could see I mean What San Diego State was like 125 and now they're 12, you know or whatever and that's there's big value there Because they're gonna be a favorite and you know probably their first at least two tournament games Maybe three hedge potential is now much easier like you're kind of buying that future those massive prices with the idea to hedge You're not even really buying them because you think the team can win the teams that can win are never like Dukes never going up It's just they're gonna be 8 to 1 they're gonna be 9 to 1 they fit the profile for a champion teams like San Diego State You need that buffer in there that you know You buy them early so that you can hedge out later then over the middle of the season All those opportunities vanish real fast because with Ken Palm with Sagerin with massy Peabody with all these systems that are out There we know who's good and we know who's not good and the idea that You know February 4th today that I could go out and find a 200 to 1 or 150 to 1 that was still valuable like There just aren't enough games left almost for that to happen There are a few teams that I think have big big big talent and maybe haven't achieved so a team like Ohio State would be a really good example of that They're got I think I've dropped them each of the last three games in my ratings But they're still 15th and there's still a chance They don't even make the tournament and they're my 15th ranked team So like they're a team where if they turn it around which I kind of think they will a little bit and make the tournament They're 65 to 1 right now They're gonna be a favorite in the tournament overall But a dozen teams with the way the market views them right now. That's interesting to me the only other team I would kind of identify as interesting and you know sort of Price versus maybe they can win would be Arizona is actually kind of interesting So Arizona has this bias associated with them My producer also has the same bias because their coach Sean Miller is perceived as like an atrocious in-game coach Or maybe just an atrocious coach in general or maybe a bad person in general based on how you guys play violations So like all of these things feed into an opinion of Arizona that they've consistently Underachieved when they've had good teams in the tournament and there's some truth to that There's also some recency bias there because early in his career Sean Miller was an incredible tournament coach when he was at Xavier Early in his years in Arizona. They had an incredible run to the elite eight won three times as an outright dog Like there are plenty of there's plenty of evidence over the body of his work that yes in a tournament game He's able to make you know, correct decisions The last thing I'll sort of say is Arizona fits into this what I call like the championship box So you look at you know Ken Palm these other models or these other projections You look at past champions. What was their profile like entering the tournament on sort of an offensive defensive? Adjusted efficiency level you you know, you'll have outliers Yukon the year that they beat Kentucky as a very high seed They're just sort of like they prove that this isn't a hard and fast rule They they broke every rule about what a champion should really look like and that's okay because we're not we're not saying things in absolutes We're just saying here are some teams You should look at that sort of have the profile of a champion and what you find is Teams that are not surprising that fit into the championship box would be a team like Duke or a team like Kansas or Michigan State or Louisville They all fit in the box right now Baylor actually also now fits in the box But the teams that you would be surprised about is Ohio State actually still fits in the box Which is kind of interesting and Arizona would be the last team that kind of fits in They have a very easy schedule coming up where I think their metrics will actually improve over the next three games They have three very easy games. They'll also be favored in every game the rest of the season That's I also like that. So, you know, they're hanging out 30 ish right now 30 to 1 to win the title I think they could get a really high seed They'll be a favorite over a lot of teams deep into the tournament. So I think Arizona is also a team that's kind of interesting Yeah, Arizona 30 to 1 right now if Andrew sportsbook and you talked about explaining recency bias would have been very profitable last year with Virginia So, yes, definitely something to check out for sure. That is Ken Barkley. Find him on Twitter at Locky Lockerson Ken Thank you so much for swinging by talking some basketball really appreciate the refresher here was fun to hear about your process And the way that you play things so differently across men's basketball in the NBA really appreciate it And hopefully we can get you on here again soon. Thank you very much guys would look forward to coming back anytime. Thank you Awesome. Thanks again Covering the future Big thank you once again to Ken Barkley for swinging on by and talking about college basketball and the NBA Be sure to check out you better you bet and his patreon page as well and Ed One thing that Ken discussed was how is and or is NCAA market? revolves around betting markets and closing lines and I believe we were talking about this on our March madness podcast back in The day, don't you have a model that is similar to that in some way? Yeah, absolutely. I take closing point spreads and I just for who everyone has played to get a set of market rankings I'm looking at him right now. Duke is first he has a second kind of the usual suspects What Ken is doing sounds a little bit more like a elo model because when you do something like that, you're taking results I mean you're essentially comparing like what the market said versus what the model said and then adjusting based on that So it sounds very elo-ish a lot of people use that model It's actually pretty predictive as long as you're actually using the margin With which you're wrong in that model. It can be pretty good and predictive So definitely an interesting thing that he's doing definitely definitely something I think it's worth looking at And we'll be sure to talk more college basketball in the future as well one final Thank you to Ken for swinging by for today and I always preach searching for the best value and betting on games and look no Further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire calm It's called odds fire It's the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated US market compare odds quickly identify the best value And even examine first-party fan dual data all in one place never settle always get the best odds Check out the experience for free now a number fire or dots fire calm gambling problem call 1-800 Gambler let's dive in now to covering the future Ed starting off with you more college basketball talk And it seems like things are pretty wide open. So what do you see across the college basketball market right now? Yeah, things are definitely wide open and let's just quantify it a little bit on my site You can go to the power Inc.com look at my college basketball rankings and here I take margin victory in games And I just for schedule. So this is the algorithm I developed. I think about 12 years ago it's kind of how I got into this world and Every team has a rating. So I'm looking at if you go to my site right now, you'll see Kansas is the top rank team They have a rating of 17.4, which means they would be about a 17 and a half point favorite against the average Division 1 college basketball team. So we are 88 days through the season If you look at the 88th day of last year, there would have been Six teams that had a higher rating than Kansas right now. Okay, so yeah, Duke Obviously a star studded. We knew Zion and RJ bearer. We're gonna be top picks in the NBA draft a clear contender Dominant team from last year Virginia was second obviously had a great team I'm both offensive decent as the side of the ball and they went on to win the entire tournament Michigan State was third And then it can zag a fourth probably marked fused most talented team ever Also a team with a bunch of NBA stars on there Tennessee was fifth and then Michigan Wolverines and John Milan's last year All six of these teams had a better work would be favored against this Kansas team right now So what does that mean? That means March madness is going to be even matter than normal When you look at last year, I haven't had a chance to quantify it You know this year in terms of win probability But last year Duke had about a 34% chance of winning the tournament. So about a one and three There's not gonna be a team that comes close to one and three to win this tournament when it breaks down So, you know, if you're gonna remember any one thing from this segment of the show It's gonna be a wild March. We'll be here to break it down But it there's a lot of parody and and there's no dominant team out there and that's gonna manifest itself, you know, usually I You know, you pretty much expect like 50-50 that one of the top two teams in terms of win probabilities gonna win No, not this year. That's awesome. I just more reason to be excited for March We are gonna discuss March madness here on the show Of course, we've if you've listened to the past Ted and I and Keith Goldner doing our Bracket breakdown that will be here on covering the spread this year as opposed to our DFS feed So we'll have that for sure. We'll talk more about Ed's numbers then and looking forward to any time We can have things a little bit wide open and not predictable I am always in favor of it Speaking of wide open and not predictable the NFL is overhead but this Saturday the XFL is launching up And it's gonna be volatile Addiction that I'm about to give probably gonna be wrong. But hey, let's have some fun There's value to having fun as a better to it doesn't always have to be just strictly about the numbers and I'm gonna keep some football in our lives a little bit longer I want to ride with the Tampa Bay Vipers at plus 450 to win the XFL championship And the main reasoning that I like this team is that their offensive philosophy is good and their quarterback is good And those are the two main things we actually have data for I guess we don't have a lot of data But we have that and their head coach is Mark Tressman if that name sounds familiar. He was at the Bears I believe in the Jay Cutler days and it did not go very well But he's someone who loves to pass and I like guys who like to pass and that's a big plus for me So I like Mark Tressman in general their quarterback is Aaron Murray My favorite starter in the XFL is Aaron Murray. So I like that He was if you look back at his numbers in the AAF last year Pretty putrid so if you want to put stock in that maybe you're less high on Murray than I am but pretty small sample I don't want to overweight that and in college. He's a really good quarterback He averaged 9.3 adjusted yards per attempt to cross his entire college career in Georgia he was a 10.8 as a junior and They've also got some good athleticism at wide receiver. They've got Jalen Tolliver. He is a 92nd percentile Dominator rating guy in college according to player profiler calm He's just 24 years old Daniel Williams is six foot two 90th percentile speed score per player profiler They also have Nick Truesdale at tight end and he was actually their first pick in the skill position portion of the draft And he kind of looks like a match-up nightmare. He ran a four five forty coming out of college But that was probably multiple pounds ago because I think he was a wide receiver at the time But overall they kind of look like a team that has length They've got speed got a decent quarterback and a quarterback and a coach who's willing to use all that so I am in on the Tampa Bay Vipers at plus 450 to win the XFL this year It's probably gonna go poorly But hey, we get some skin in the game here for the XFL which gets going on Saturday and any XFL interest for you What was the XFL? No, I'm just kidding Yeah, not yet. I mean if we should talk about a little bit more I have no plans on actually running any numbers on it But I'd be interested to see what all our analytics friends on Twitter have to say Oh, they're excited that the Twitter Twitter is jumping at the bit to get some XFL. Maybe that's just fantasy Twitter But there's daily fantasy for XFL too. So I think it'll be fun. It could again It could be really terrible. So keep that in mind, but it's coming up this weekend and I am Looking forward to it at least I guess I would say that and I want to go back Something you said in the intro you said you had pork tacos with a salsa for your Super Bowl Is this a secret recipe? No, you should be aware of no It's absolutely not a secret recipe. So you get a 10 pound bone-in pork shoulder You salt it liberally and you stick it in the fridge for 24 hours. Okay You take it out of the fridge and you put it in the oven at 225 Okay for about 17 18 hours until it gets to 192 internal temperature That's it It's one or 17 to 18 hours. Yeah, so how long did it take you to get to craft this 192 number? Well, I've done this many many times in my life I actually failed the other day and ate one at 182 and it wasn't it wasn't the worst thing I've ever eaten right the pork still tasted pretty good But when you get to 192 it just it just falls apart and all the fat is kind of melted into the meat Yeah, and then when you get to 195 it just it's kind of a little drier And it's just not quite as good. What kind of salsa we talking here. We talking Oh, I know is a Roja that my friend James makes and I mean it's it's amazing Like he roasts the peppers and then oh wow all I know is that he gets the peppers and roast them himself Okay, it's the it's the complicated like and he does that on his wherever girl I don't actually know the details beyond that except that I'm always just kind of begging him to to bring the Roja Whenever we did this and then it your salsa. That's a good side Yeah, yeah, that was pretty good and and I made the tortillas too. Okay from from corn flour Which is definitely better than kind of buying like I'm big into tortillas Yeah, so and I don't always have the time to make them, but I made them for Sunday So you have the sophisticated process down to the degree We had chili cheese dip It's not it's it's a whole recipe, but you have it down to the degree. I Know I was like, yeah, we'll toss some chilies and velvita some rotella and a thing. We're good Yeah, okay fine, maybe I do have it but but the thing is like I mean, you know, it's not It's not something that takes talent to do sure you just need a thermometer And you need to pay attention, you know, that's true with more cooking than people would expect I think yeah Follow directions which I sometimes can do not always successfully But that is definitely a key. So we're gonna have to try that out. I'm looking at your absolutely I'll let you know how it goes if it gets to 193 that that things that suckers fine in the the driveway for sure 193 is fine. Just shoot for 192. You have some leeway if you get to 196 It's not good. We're having a different discussion for sure That is all that we have for today and this week here on covering this spread big Thank you once again to Ken Barkley at Lockie Lockerson for joining us and talking NBA and college Ed, what's going on for you? Not the Super Bowls wrapped up over at the Powerac Yeah, I mean, I'm getting ready for more madness as I discussed and covering the future. It's a wide open tournament Which for me means I get to watch a lot more teams Actually play basketball because I think that's gonna be more valuable. So I'm working on that I'm planning on sending those thoughts to my email newsletter. So please go sign up for that at the powerink.com I'll also send you a lot of other Cheat sheets and stuff to fill out your bracket and march madness And and all the fun things i'm doing over at the powerink. Awesome. That is fantastic Check Ed out there and also follow him on twitter at the powerink. I am at Jim Sonnis j i m S a n n e s a lot of stuff going on over on the dfs feed for this week PGA XFL coming up later this week and nascar as well Should be a fun ride Find out by searching for the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big. Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer For keeping us on the air here today as always. Thank you cal and thank you to everyone for tuning in. Hopefully Ken's thoughts on basketball were profitable for you and can work out well Going forward to help you refine your process for basketball as well. We'll talk to you again soon This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network