 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We are just about 12 hours away from the semifinals beginning for the 2023 women's world cup We have got Spain taking on Sweden first and then Australia taking on England We're gonna break down both those matches and get you ready for both those matches and take a look at the futures market by talking to Dr. Ed Fang right here today. This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and fan dual research My name is Jim saw this. I am a digital media managing editor for a fan dual research joined here as mentioned by Dr Ed Fang you can find his work at the power rank calm and find him on Twitter at the power rank Ed we're a talk with Williams will come here in a second But first you spent the weekend in Vegas out at that bash. How do things go there? Things were great. That bash was a great event always great to renew relationships and make some new ones and You know spanking team did a great job throwing the vet It was out there in Vegas which helps which just had to be a lot of fun Yep. Yep. It was good. There was an outdoor Watch party swim watch party, but I you know it was like a hundred degrees. So I was inside You weren't roughing it out there So, I mean, it's it's actually not terrible. Yeah without the humidity like it Can't it feels worse in Michigan sometimes with the humidity But you know got protect my delicate skin from the Sun. So sad to see inside there are a lot of people Downstairs. Oh, yeah, I'm sure I would I would happily choose AC myself personally. I spent a week in the DR So I've gotten my fair share of like heat in now I'm ready to just live in air conditioning until we finally get to fall So I I'm fully on board of your approach just wanted to make sure That we got the the obligatory It's a dry heat mentioned in there as well We're talking about Everything women's World Cup year for the semifinals break down both those matches and take a look at the futures market Talk about some potential matchups in the final here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are not just talking women's World Cup We're also talking to me p.m. At Austin Cass. He'll be with us on Wednesday this week to break down match week two across The English Premier League find that right here on the covering the spread podcast feed also over on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus Hitting home run with $5 Dinger Tuesdays on Fandall sportsbook each Tuesday All customers will get $5 and bonus bets for every home run hit by both teams when you place a $25 to hit a home run way drawn MLB games The best part about Dinger Tuesdays is even if your bet loses Fandall will pay you $5 for every home run There's no better place to bet America's pastime than on America's number one sportsbook head over to your Fandall account or Download the Fandall sportsbook app to pick your home run hitter must be 21 plus and president select states bonus Issue is not a trouble bonus bets that expire in seven dates max bonus $25 Restrictions apply default terms at fandall.com slash sportsbook Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next step to 533 for 2 in Connecticut 1-887-89 7777 or visit ccpg.org sush chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 105 to 247 hundred in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana's 1-877 770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org We're calling 100 327 5050 for 24 7 support in Maryland empty gambling health org in New York 1-877 8 hope and wire text open why and in West Virginia Go to 1-800 gambler.net now. We're gonna dig into these semi-finals here in just one second But this is our final women's world cup show So I wanted to go back through the event as a whole and I wanted to ask you about Modeling this event out for the first time, you know We're the big takeaways for you that you want to carry into I guess 2027 the next time we get a woman's world cup Well, I don't think we need to wait till 2027 I mean, we'll have the Olympics next year isn't there'll be another year or before then and honestly like I think it it's Events that I really want to bet I think yeah, they're pretty interesting because it's pretty clear to me like the markets just simply aren't as strong and That's because no one follows women's soccer International soccer all year round. I'm sure someone does out there, but But you can kind of tell that these markets aren't as strong And I think there are a lot of opportunities in terms of lessons learned on the analytics side You know, it was pretty clear from the beginning that what I've done for the men Isn't useful as useful for the women when there's so many injuries the key players So it made me kind of dive into some player analysis, which is good and necessary in 2023 whether men women or Whoever is playing the sport? So I thought that was interesting and then just from a betting perspective I really enjoyed it in the sense that it was fun to Kind of not know anything to maybe knowing a little bit more than the markets I remember, you know, Matt McCaff formula of Circa was was on my podcast and he was talking about betting lacrosse or something he didn't know anything about and a Book put up some number and he's like, oh, yeah, you know, I'll dig it I'll do a couple hours of work and give you some action on that and Back then I was kind of like, yeah, okay, but you know, I mean that was kind of what it was like for this women's World Cup And I think there's a lot of value and opportunity there and it's part numbers and it's part Subjective stuff and and I think all good betting is a combination of both, right? I mean it literally can be, you know, I think for these types of like lower profile events and just not stuff that There are people that would bet on all the time. I think you can put in a couple hours of work And I think you can do pretty well and that's an opportunity You can't do that for the NFL, right? I mean, it's much better to lean on someone like me who's been working on a model for like a decade and and You know other people who watch every single snap I mean, that's that's the kind of effort you need to beat NFL probably not the case with these with these small events Yeah, and I want to talk to the player level. Go ahead. Yeah, small and bad events I don't want to like disparage women's World Cup because it is a pretty big event But in terms of exactly in our specific fear is fear. It's not a sport That's as well covered from a betting perspective I would estimate the player level side of things you talked about how You want to factor in more player level stuff Do you think that's something you may factor in more to your men's side of things or is your knowledge of the men's game? Great enough where that may not be as necessary Right, I mean, I certainly did factor it into my World Cup analysis, which led me to fade Argentina a lot which Didn't work out so well. I still think it was a pretty good take I mean, I mean, we know how great Messi is and you're seeing that all over your social media feed these days I still don't think the rest of that team is very good I was obviously wrong for the duration of the World Cup They played well enough to support Messi to win that World Cup But but for sure I mean, we do need to we do need to rely on that in 2023 and I will continue to do that in soccer and Football and everything else. All right Well, I'm looking forward to applying that in the very near future as you mentioned The Olympics just around the corner So we get to dive back into this world once again Next year as well But before then we got to talk about the semi-finals which began actually not too far from now We got Spain taking on Sweden that is going to be early Tuesday morning right now This market has been all over the place Spain is currently the money line favorite minus 188 Sweden's plus 152 about 15 or 20 minutes ago Ed Sweden was down to like plus 138 So they shortened quite a bit and then apparently Spain took quite a bit of money because it did shift back to minus 188 there So a lot of action on this market. We've seen some movement towards the under currently two and a half goals under I think is minus 200 or so somewhere around there So movement towards Spain most recently moving towards the under I want to talk to you about this game because These are two teams even high on this entire event talk about them the futures market and stuff like that How do you see them stacking up against each other here where it is to your favorite teams now having to go I think Spain's the best team in the tournament. I think I've said that for a long time I'm still not backing off of that Sweden is very good. They could certainly pull the upset But I I just think the Spanish women are on another level the market movement is amazing I mean, I'm pretty sure I saw on Fando over the weekend Spain minus 212 to advance and when I looked at this morning I think it was one minus 188 this morning and look I'm dead in Spain because I'm hedging out my Sweden future So I had to do that and like I you know, I ended up getting minus 170 over at Draftkings ended a betting it there for because of the better price and It looks like I caught the buck like I think I did that at the perfect time because it's back to minus 2088 It was a 20 minute window. I think we're as minus 170. Oh Great. Well, I got minus 170. So um, I don't necessarily think there's value in that if you're not hedging out of future I I can't really it was interesting. I did run the numbers on this and they Massively favor Sweden. I don't think the past history of the Spain team can can kind of remotely capture the the level of play that they're at right now But yeah, I mean, I expect Spain to move on. I really do think they're the best Sweden is great But yeah, I do like Spain here Now you mentioned how you would not have at Spain if you weren't hedging out of your Sweden futures again 16 to 1 25 to 1 on them earlier on from this tournament If you were looking at this market at plus 152 for Sweden Would that be long enough to tempt you or do you think that that? Properly encapsulates how good Spain is. I think that properly encapsulates it if it went No, no 160 one set plus 160 170. Maybe that would be interesting for them to advance Sweden is good, but I kind of feel like it's it's kind of spot-on. I mean, it's it's a it's at least in the right ballpark Okay, so that is the money line markets for this event any other non money line markets that catch your eye for this game it No, no, I've not really I haven't looked into that too much Although I do want to talk about a Spain future when we get to that part of the show Okay, so we'll circle back to that in a second But first let's move on to the second semi-final that is Australia taking on England This one is early Wednesday morning for us here in the US and currently Australia plus 124 to qualify for the final Whereas England is minus 152 the total in this game pretty similar over two and a half goals was plus 162 under is minus 225 So very low scoring game expected once again Ed. How do you see this one playing out England versus Australia? For sure, I think this is there's a lot of factors going on here for me England's a better team and and they should be favored. Remember Australia is gonna have Homefield advantage here. So you kind of have to factor that in when you kind of just purely look at the numbers You know, it has England around two and three to advance roughly 6870 percent to advance that is with home field This is not the same England team that has produced all those numbers or there's definitely some stars that are not there From even when they won Euro last year Also when you think about England in this term it is really tough to tell And partially like when you look at the XG analysis, we've talked about expected goals We talked about how it's more predictive than current goals but it also has its flaws and One of its flaws was in the last game against Columbia When you when you simply when you open up I actually get the the women's woke up newsletter from FB ref And it's really good because it kind of tells you the XG for the game gives you a little synopsis And it tells you the XG on all the goals and you see oh England point eight five XG on their goal to score That is completely false in the sense that What happened was the goalkeeper kind of fluffed one and the ball she could she the Columbia goal Keepers should have had this ball. She just missed it the ball squirts out and squirts in behind her and the England player taps it in so point eight five XG There's in no sense Did England create a point eight five? Opportunity they were probably better team the game but so you know when you look at the total XG if you kind of take out point eight five it's pretty equal very low scoring game and So yeah, that's not a perfect measure either when you look at England's XG in this tournament Which actually overall hasn't been particularly good so Yeah, it's a tough one from from a lot of different angles. I do not I Don't know if there's any value in this game. I Think it's probably price pretty right But but I do think That okay, so so here's kind of my biggest perspective on this look I've said that Spain's the best team. I went through I watched England For their last game against Columbia England's fine. They're not as good as Spain Well, the futures market is telling you is that so Spain is more likely to advance through the semifinals in England, but England is still the favorite slightly Which tells you that if Spain meets England in the final England's probably gonna be favored and that would be as wrong as favoring Japan over Sweden which we talked about last week. That would be massively wrong in my opinion So if we do get a Spain versus England final, I Would jump on it immediately. I think it'll go towards Spain But you probably you can probably get Spain a positive money to lift the cup and that would be a really good bet So they're currently plus 175 to win at all before their game against Sweden Do you think that match with Sweden is evenly paired enough where you'd rather hold off on betting Spain to Win the whole thing knowing based on the markets There's a good likelihood you get can get Spain at, you know, even money plus 110 somewhere around there to win the whole thing Assuming they do advance Yeah, I'd probably wait for that. Yeah, I mean, I don't I don't see a ton of value here I mean, I like Spain and Sweden. I think I mean Sweden England I mean probably same thing for Sweden England final, too I think I think there's probably gonna be some value there I think Sweden's been kind of underrated by the markets this this entire tournament I think England if anything is going to be overrated, although they will have Lauren James back So she's the woman that stomped on someone In the Nigeria game she was out against Columbia. She will be out again against Australia I'm not sure how much of a difference she makes but But yeah, I think going against England in a final is probably It's probably the better That then then then then this right now and it sounds like based on the way you view things where if you get anything on Spain plus money like like even money or longer It's not like anything to you there would be enticing enough for you to buy in just because you think that Spain is a better team versus England heads up, correct? Absolutely, and I and it seems like you're gonna be able to get plus 120 plus 130 sure which Is is is a good bet? Okay, now let's talk about the futures market here quickly too because you've talked about how you're hedging out against Sweden with the Spain match And I'm guessing that there are listeners to listen to you when we had you on the show and talked about Taking Sweden futures. Would you be doing so via the futures market? Are you doing so via the Spain match specifically? How are you handling that? I mean you kind of mentioned what you're you've done But what is your thought process in getting there embedding Spain? Specifically in this match against Sweden in order to hedge a bit on your Sweden futures It's just that I think Spain is probably gonna win this I mean, I think they're a better team They play a really nice brand of attacking soccer It was actually the opposite against Japan That I talked about on the last show Sweden was the underdog and even though I had those futures I pretty heavily bet Sweden advance in that game There was a ton of pressure Jim because I told that to a lot of people at that bash and there were a lot of sports Better is a lot sharper than me that like went and in bed it and so for the first 30 minutes that game when it was roughly even I was like, you know, there was there was just pressure going on there But it worked itself out Luckily for me So yeah, I think it's a completely different situation with Spain. I don't know what I'm gonna do in the final Yeah, I should Sweden advance. I guess I don't have to think about that yet, but I Think yeah, that's kind of my thought process behind that I mean, it'd be a good problem to have right having to decide what to do a Sweden if they got there Right. Yeah, it's good problem to have. All right. Well, that is our final time talking women's World Cup for this year But Ed next time we talk to you gonna be week zero of college football Are you ready for college football to be fully back? Give me that actually had kind of a busy summer Yeah, kind of Yeah, no, I'm mostly ready. I haven't really looked through too many games yet, but I will before then and Looking forward to to getting cranking. Love it. Well, Ed It's been a delight to talk to women's World Cup with you throughout this entire event It's been a pleasure as always looking forward to talking college football with you as well in the very near future People want to find five Nuggets Saturday all your other work. Where can they do so? Yeah, check out all my work at the power Inc.com. You can sign up for my free email newsletter Will you get five Nuggets Saturday, which is my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics? Also, I'm kind of on a heater with the podcast right now Football analytics show had Bill Akaneley on last week had JJ Zachary Senon and got a couple more really good guests over The upcoming weeks. So check that out wherever you get your podcast. Yeah, Bill Akaneley JJ Zachary Senon I used my football analytics show mug on Saturday specifically saw it and I was like, okay This is this is the day for this. So what else could you need? Bill Akaneley JJ Zachary Senon me using your mug without telling anybody I think that's all you need to grow All right, find that on the football analytics show check it adds work at the power rank and find them on Twitter at the power I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J I M S a NNES. You can also follow Fandall research at Fandall research We are back once again tomorrow talks and baseball here on the show and against BPL coming up on Wednesday Enjoy the first semi-final coming up tonight. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network