 What's going on everybody it's Stas here and welcome back to another video. So in today's video we're going to be doing an overall market update taking a look at the Dow Jones the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq we're also going to be talking about any trades that I made today as well as some stocks and ETFs that I'm personally watching and looking to trade here heading into the month of October one in particular that's looking very good on a technical basis and I'm sure a lot of you guys out there have been paying attention to this particular stock if you do follow pharmaceutical companies and stay tuned here in a couple of minutes we'll go over that one stock in particular and drop a comment down below guess what that stock is I'm sure you guys can probably guess and stay tuned again and you'll see if you were right so if you enjoyed this video feel free to go down below hit that like button consider subscribing if you want to see further content involving the stock market and investing in the stock market and trading in the stock market this is the channel for you and let's get right into it guys so the SPX the S&P 500 the 500 largest publicly traded US companies ended up closing the day today down $15 and that's a pretty good close for the S&P considering how red it actually was at the bottom of the day and we'll take a look at that here in a couple of seconds but overall guys we closed above 2950 which was that level that I was talking about in the discord group chat today which is linked down below in the description box by the way 100% free of charge and I was talking about how if we work to close below 2950 today heading into the weekend that was going to be very negative for the S&P right there's a lot of negatives right now there's a lot of bearish really technicals that I'm seeing like we talked about in yesterday's video but this one would have put it into a complete disaster mode in my opinion and if we just draw out some technicals here some support and resistance levels we'll be able to see you know if we were to close below 2950 today you know next week we could be running down you know to 2900 flat and just because we didn't close below 2950 that doesn't mean that we're not going to run down there I still think there's potential but it's a decent sign for the bulls that we did that's all I'm trying to say that we did close above 2950 but anyway some upcoming levels of support like I said 2900 if we draw this one out here we have about 2850 that's a very strong level if we go down a bit more probably 2800 flat and now we're getting very deep into the 2700 so overall if we break 2950 guys we could be heading down to 2900 and then so on as I've listed here you know with these trend lines right and if we zoom in a bit onto this 20 day one hour chart you guys can see like I talked about in yesterday's video if we were to get rejected by this 50 SMA that we closed right under yesterday if we were to get rejected and continue to run down my thesis of this overall head and shoulders pattern it's going to be pretty much um um still in play right and for those of you guys that don't know what I'm talking about I talked about this in yesterday's video overall here what I'm seeing on this four hour chart maybe if we zoom out a bit to the one year one day you'll be able to see it because I did draw it before the video this is what I think the SMP could potentially do here based off of what this trend is showing me and this trend and this pattern that I'm seeing here is a head and shoulders pattern right we have the left shoulder here we have the head and now this could be the formation of the right shoulder especially if we break 2950 and then continue to move down and break support after support and kind of complete this little trend drawing hypothetical hypothetical scenario that I do have right here you know that could be the full-on formation of the right shoulder and for those of you guys that don't remember last year during the October to December period we sold off very very aggressively and not saying that history is going to repeat itself but it's interesting to see you know if something similar happened to last year we all know these tariffs are kicking in if we get more tension in the trade war negative tension this can definitely rock the markets if new tariffs get kicked in guys you know and you know we obviously have tariffs coming in here over the next couple of months that are already in place you know this can send down the markets in a snap of the finger right we've seen it many many times in the past and looking at that intraday chart like I said guys we sold off very very aggressively and this is actually the time period where I traded the good old ETF or an ETN rather that I trade all the time which I'm sure you guys can guess as well and you can see we actually got down to that 2950 ish level we broke below it very briefly but again we closed above it which is a good sign for the bulls out there going over to the Dow Jones industrial average here guys very similar big sell-off we broke a major support and we ended up closing on a nice little strong note thanks to the bulls out there overall down $70 today down .26% and if we zoom back out to this four-hour chart you can see very similar pattern happening you know in the Dow just like the S&P and that's the head and shoulders pattern we have the left shoulder here the head here and this could be the formation of the right shoulder if we break the 180 SMA support here and ultimately break that $26,600 level of support as well if we break that my really my thoughts of this head and shoulder my not really my thoughts my really technical analysis is still going to be in play if we do this right let's say we start to break out and do something like that and hit all time highs obviously the head and shoulder it's going to be extinct at that point that's not really going to be the head and shoulder pattern because we're breaking to the upside but if we dump here guys that's going to be very very good for the head and shoulder theory and we may be going back down to $26,200 if we break the $26,600 support and if we zoom in a bit 20 day one hour here guys I know there's a bunch of jazz going on with these trend lines but if you look and see we're still getting rejected by that 50 SMA we actually broke the 180 SMA support here as well we hit a lower low today we're about to see a bearish cross here on the hourly chart which is pretty much when a smaller simple moving average in this case the 50 SMA crosses below a larger moving average which in this case is the yellow line which is the 180 SMA so if that ends up happening guys that could trigger even a bigger sell-off and then we could definitely be dumping to that 26-2 level that we just talked about so going to the NASDAQ guys biggest drop no surprise like I talk about on the channel all the time when we see a red day out there typically not always but typically the NASDAQ has hit the hardest in terms of a percentage loss here out of the three major indexes the S&P the Dow and the NASDAQ and that's no different today we were down 0.9% here down 70 points and on the 20 day one hour chart you can see we hit a lower load today downtrend is still intact based off of what I'm seeing here in the past two weeks of the market you know the moving averages they're acting as resistance levels both the 50 and the 180 SMA if we zoom out a bit to the 184 hour chart you guys can see this one's well in the process of making that right shoulder like I mentioned in yesterday's video this one's way deeper in the process than the S&P compared to the S&P and the Dow Jones one positive thing that I saw today for the for the bears out there is that we broke 77 roughly I bet I would say 7730 ish which is that support level which was an old resistance where we saw a triple top so that's good because that means we're on our way to the next support which in this case is 7500 and that would be a gap of about 1.6% to the downside so this is something very possible guys this right shoulder completion here we may sell off right to 7580 7600 at that point the R size going to be very very oversold some bulls might come in we might see a bit of a breather there a hold on that support we may see a bit of a pop a rejection at that resistance and then ultimately a dump and then a break below 76 would really just complete that right shoulder and at that point if I draw out some levels you know we may be going down to 7450 which is the next support that I am seeing at this point so if we go to the one day you guys can see we did get a lot lower from where we are now we got to about 7640 and then the bulls took over but we didn't close above the resistance right we're still treating it as a resistance at around 7720 7730 so overall guys that's what the markets are looking like right now I think the markets are a lot are going to see a lot more selling in my personal opinion right I was looking at a bunch of put options for SPY right now I'm thinking about maybe placing a risky trade not really a risky trade because again like I've mentioned a bunch on this channel guys I don't do options like day trading like I like I day trade stocks ETF swing trade stocks and ETFs I mostly do options when I hedge against my long positions maybe a couple of times per year and one thing that I've really set to myself and promised to myself is that I do want to get a bit more involved with options on a more regular basis so now that I think I have this whole theory about the SPY SPX going down I could be completely wrong guys do your own research don't take this as being 100% correct but now that I have this theory in place a lot of things are happening in the next couple of months that I think could drag down the markets I may put out a put option play here and of course I will let you guys know which is going to lead us to the second portion of today's video which is the trading update and I'm sure a bunch of you guys can probably guess again if you left that comment down below earlier let's see if you can guess it but I did or let's see if you guessed it right if you guessed TVIX you are right TVIX is what I treated today this is a volatility ETN goes up whenever the VIX is going up which had a very good day today VIX was up 7% a dollar 15 and that is the volatility index right when the markets are rocky typically dumping volatility is going up and what goes up when the volatility goes up and the markets are going down TVIX right if we pull up TVIX you guys can see if you time this absolutely perfect if you had really a time machine and you can go into the future and see okay it peaked at 1512 today and you got in perfectly at 1328 you could have made a nice little 12% well not really little that's a very good profit right from the bottom to the top that's around a 12% gain but of course I don't have that time machine guys so I did not make 12% but if we go back to the SPX like I said I did enter TVIX not after this dump but as we started to try and recover here and we started to get rejected by that 50 SMA on the SPX that was telling me okay this is not looking to break out here right overall on the hourly chart we're getting rejected by moving averages that's very clear right we didn't break out this morning over the 50 SMA that gave me the notion that the bears are taking over right then I go to the hourly chart or the month or the day chart rather and we can see the big dump and even on the intraday chart we're struggling to get out of those moving average resistances we hit that lower high here we started to dump this is when I started to take a position in TVIX very very simple guys this moves very quickly so let's say you make 12% you have $10,000 in the trade that could be a 200 $100 $200 profit right if you have let's say $5,000 let's see how good my math is here off the top of my head guys if you have $5,000 1% of $5,000 is 50 bucks right you make 50 bucks on a quick TVIX trade and trust me guys these TVIX these volatility ETNs they move quick they move very very quick because they're leveraged right this goes up like crazy you can see here in the snap of the finger guys it went from 1330 up to 1430 and again if you had that time machine you would have made 6% which is a lot more than that 1% that gives you $50 from 5,000 so let's say you made you know the whole 12% from the bottom to the top you could have made 1200 off of 10,000 but anyway I started to get in again right around this 12-1230 time period the markets were very volatile at this point and I pretty much just scalped it off that 50 SMA like I typically do and off that EMA so I got in right on this little dip right 1415 I believe I sold off like 1438 or something like that grabbing around grabbing around a 1.4 1.5% profit and guys I get a lot of questions on the DMs on discord you know should I hold these over the weekend you know should I buy these and just hope to get like 20% 40% by holding it over the weekend and the truth is guys with these they're very very volatile right because you know we're up 10% one day the next day we're down 20% up 10% up 7% the next day it's very up and down and if you get caught in something like this let's say we got a tweet about the trade war being fantastic on Monday right and that sent the markets flying temporarily TV IX if you were to hold it from the from the Friday before you'd pretty much be bag holding at that point because this would be down 5-10% a lot of the time because when the markets go up the VIX gets crushed most of the time right and really TV IX goes down so that's why it's very risky I think if you're up on a Friday if you're up two three four five percent on a Friday just take the profits you know why I don't get why people are scared of leaving money on the table it's okay wouldn't you be wouldn't you feel better at night that you locked in your profits and you can reevaluate the situation on Monday to potentially get in and who cares if you left money on the table people are leaving money on the table every single day this is just unrealistic to grab all of the money out there right just something to think about guys over this weekend so really that's it for the trading update right and I don't want to keep you guys too much longer the truth is this next week I'm watching the markets in very very really scrutiny right I'm going to be watching the markets closely because I want to see are we going to start completing that right shoulder on all three major markets right I'm not looking at this point to swing trade a lot of stock except for this one in particular right that we're going to get into now but the truth is guys I'm looking to trade most of these volatility market ETFs like TVIX, SPXS, UVXY, SQQQQ all of these ones that we talk about and the one stock in particular that I think is looking good right now and if you guessed it you guys can probably know what it is it's going to be ATV guys ABBV ATV despite the market selling off this one's been doing quite well over the past couple of days you can see it's gone from $64 in the beginning of this month all the way up to $75 overall this trend right now why I'm liking it a lot is because we're breaking out of the moving average resistances on the four hour chart very obvious right we're making higher lows higher highs we're getting a bullish cross based off these moving averages but the one thing that's a bit alarming here although everything's looking good on the four hour chart excuse me is if we zoom out a bit to let's say the one year one day chart we're getting right to that resistance at the 180S May which has been a resistance over the past year and uh at this point right over this past year which is a bit alarming right and it's looking like we might test this this upcoming week so this could be an opportunity either to get a breakout on ABBV which would be great for a swing trade but if you're into put options or potentially shorting a stock this could be a good opportunity if it does get rejected to go down so this is a stock that I'm not necessarily looking to specifically swing trade it I'm looking to either swing trade it or play the put option if it does get rejected and that's something interesting here because it could really go either way and if you're not a profit on the upside or the downside either way you can make money on this and I think it's setting up nicely but we just have to see what it does this upcoming week right at this level under the 180S May so ABB definitely one worth watching I think there's a lot of opportunity either to short this one or go long on it if it does break that technical level so I don't want to keep you guys too long I already know this video is going to be uploaded very very late I doubt a lot of people are going to watch it because it is going to be uploaded late but if you did watch it and you did stay till the end I really appreciate you so so much you don't even understand you guys are truly awesome so if you enjoyed this video why not go down below hit that like button if you stuck this far just go hit that like button let me know down below in the comments what are your thoughts about everything and leave a subscription or rather subscribe to the channel you don't leave a subscription subscribe to the channel hit that notification bell so you're notified every time that I do make a video and join our discord chat and our facebook group there's over a thousand members combined in those two platforms all of those are linked down below follow my personal instagram at stop surface if you want to see more day-to-day stuff more my life stuff like that everything again is linked down below so I'll catch you all in the next video thanks again for watching peace out