 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, company live from TFNN Wednesday morning, just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got some jobs numbers from the ADP this morning, a weak number, giving the markets a boost, a little bit of a reversal of the trends we've seen recently. You have yields pulling back a bit. We have markets in positive territory. The S&Ps, boy, it was looking dire last night, 3 in the morning, 42, 35. You were negative by about 30 points on the pre-market session, and just like that, we are 40 points. You almost were 50 points off of that price level. We get a bid, and interesting, that the market was already higher coming into the economic numbers. So, yeah, we're up by 10. The market jumped a bit on that jobs number, but basically holding on to the reversal that we got from 3 in the morning, we get yields reversing as well. Markets in positive territory, S&Ps up by 10. That's about 2.10 percent, NASDAQ 100, up right now, 57 points. You're almost 200 points off of the low of last night, NASDAQ 100, up 4.10 percent. The Dow, up 2.10 percent, just in line with the S&P, and the Russell, up 2.10 as well. So, Dow, Russell, S&P, up 2.10 percent, you get the NASDAQ 100, up 4.10 percent. Crude backing off. Now, let's jump to the dollar index before we jump around. Dollar index, you talk about a pullback here, okay? You had been up to 107.34 yesterday, you were at 107.20 earlier this morning. That correlates to the market action there, man. We finally get a pullback, and boy, it's a pullback. You're talking about 700 ticks, right? 700, in terms of going from 107.20 to 106.50, basically, in the dollar index, and you jump over to Crude. You got Crude backing off at 87.68. You jump over to the gold contract this morning, gold for the reaction that you're getting in that dollar index, just chopping around at 18.42. You were at 18.30 yesterday. You were at 18.31 earlier this morning. So, as we've seen the dollar index pullback, right, we've seen gold go from 18.32 to 18.42. You could argue that you might want to see a bigger move with the type of the move that we got in the dollar index, and we get to the main event, yields. Quite a reversal. We almost got a 105 handle, man. We almost got a 105 handle on the 10-year, I mean, yesterday during the program. Look, we were at 107.10 before we got a little sell-off towards the end of the program, and we almost just got a 105 handle, a full point and a half almost to trade it lower, but boy, you saved yourself. You're only back to where you were just about yesterday. Right now, you're talking about a 10-year yield, 4.74%, I think we were up to, what, 4.83, 4.84 was the high, something like that. You've got the 2-year right now at about 5.09. Now, check out the move on the yield curve. The 2-year, 5.09, we're down almost 6 basis points, mammoth move. Let's jump to the 2-year for a moment. That is a mammoth move on the 2-year, folks, because to get a move on yield, that's 6 basis points. On something that has a duration that is much shorter, like a 2-year, you have to have a dramatic move for that yield to move over a 2-year basis. 102 to 108, you see the mammoth move as it gets back, basically, yesterday, Monday, and we've been talking about this 2-year backing things up to, yeah, let's put it on a 10-day, does that get us back? It does. That is Fed Day Wednesday. So, look where we are now. The 2-year, back to 108, we were at 101.15 before the Fed, two weeks ago today, actually. Yeah, two weeks ago today, the chairman spoke, rates are going to be higher for longer. We got the dot plot recalibrated a bit. We're looking for one more hike, and next year, they recalibrated things to show that their interest rate was probably looking at about half a percentage point higher than the market. All of that combined to quite the reversal. But look at the give back, just that quick, man, from this morning. We're at 103, we'll call it. We're at 10109 right now. We're only at 101.15 before that move. So quite a reversal, and let's get into the main event. Now, the main event this morning, but here's what to consider, okay? You're going to hear a lot of rhetoric about the jobs number giving the market a reprieve. It already got the reprieve from three this morning, okay? In Europe right now, you've got the DAX up about half a percent, you've got Calc roll up about six tenths percent over in Asia, markets in the red in pretty dramatic fashion. You've got the Nikkei down 2.3 percent. You've got the Hangsang off eight tenths percent, okay? Shanghai barely in the positive. But this started at three in the morning. You jump over to the Euro-US dollar. As we continue this wrap up, before we get to those ADP numbers, Euro-US dollar, there's three in the morning, right? You get a move from 104.50, we'll call it. The low there, 104.50 exactly. Up to 105.20, just mammoth move. So that's what correlated. The move has held since we got the ADP numbers at 8.15 this morning. Let me find it. There it is. There's your volatility, the volume bar, of course, 8.15. And we're right back to where we were before that bar. So this move, just holding on the equities, you do jump to the 10-year and we are a bit higher, okay? So the equities, the indices, right where we were at about 8.15 coming into the ADP jobs number. Meanwhile, we have had yields pull back a bit, okay? But look where we were at three in the morning. Three in the morning, you go from 106 basically to 106.25. So you move 25 ticks coming into that number and we're only five ticks away now. I'm trying to emphasize that we're going to go over the ADP numbers. You're going to get a lot of focus ahead of the jobs number on Friday, rightfully so. But this move is its own move outside of that economic number, okay? All right. Now, let's get into that number. Where are we? Here we are. U.S. firms added 89,000 jobs. These are private payrolls from ADP, fewest since early 2021, weaker than all estimates, annual pay growth for workers continued to ease. Continuing to ease. That's going to be happening. Private payrolls, 89,000, they put up 180,000 in August. Where are they? Leisure and hospitality, man, right? Financial activities a bit higher, 17,000, monthly change in employment, construction, higher by 16,000 on the negative side, manufacturing, trade and transportation, professional business services down 32,000. Now this is all ahead of the jobs number on Friday for pay numbers, okay? We've been talking about these, still big numbers, man. If you stayed in your job, you saw almost a 6% median pay increase in September from a year ago. If you changed jobs, you got almost a 9% increase in the median rise in annual pay. Both of those numbers, the weakest since June of 2021, no, even longer, yeah, even longer, yeah, about two years. And large firms with at least 500 employees cut 83,000 jobs, second largest decline since early in the pandemic, all regions except the South added workers in September. And we get the non-farm payroll number on Friday, they're looking for 155,000 in September. And we got that jobs number, they talk about the jobs number, there's a lot of rhetoric about that jobs number and how it might not be the most accurate representation of what's going on in the economy. Nonetheless, the market reacted yesterday, right? And you're getting a little bit of a recoil today, but yeah, we're still talking about some lofty yields. And I pulled it up this morning. Five-year ladder this morning, 5.16% your yield over that five-year ladder, 5.16% the yield on a five-year ladder risk-free, FDIC insured. You got to talk about it because it's out there, 5.16%. I imagine that may pull back a little bit tomorrow if yields persist where they are today. But stay tuned, folks. We're coming back. Talk to our man, Kevin Inks from the Schwab Network Fast Market. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018, and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn, and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter, Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our Community of Traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. It's going to be an interesting day in the markets. As it's Wednesday, we're coming into the non-farm payroll numbers on Friday. Quite the reaction yesterday to the jobs number. We got that number at 10 o'clock right when I got off the air, and kaboom! Markets traded lower in dramatic fashion, man. You go from $43.15 down to a price point yesterday. We were at lows of $42.52. You're talking about almost 65 points off of where we were trading. As I enter the program on those job numbers, your job openings going up, indicative, I should say, of a strong economy. What do you get this morning? You get a weak ADP number. You're still talking about wage growth of 6% in the same job, 9% if you're changing jobs. Those are waning a bit, but boy, it's just like inflation when they say it's waning a bit. We got a long way to go. You still have people, if you change jobs, making 9% more than you were making the previous year. Think about that. If times were really tough, man, you're not allowed to just pop to a different job and make 9% more than you were making a year ago. If times are that tough, the median pay increase is not almost 6% right now. It's easy to say that those numbers are going down as in they're decelerating, right? It doesn't mean they're going down at the rate that we need them to go down to. They are lower, but here are those numbers, 6% staying in the same job, 9% changing jobs, dramatic numbers. We get wage numbers tomorrow, excuse me, Friday, we get wage numbers in the non-farm payroll number. One of the numbers that people are looking at in a big way as well. What are we going to talk about? Let's see what we got pulled up here. I've got a few good articles to talk about this morning with some of the action going over. We could talk about bonds. Let's talk about rates as we're talking about a 30-year mortgage rate, top 7.5% for the first time since the glory days of 2000. Higher rates send MBA mortgage-backed asset home purchase index to the lowest since 1995. 30-year fixed rate has climbed 32 basis points in four weeks. That's just in four weeks. These things, it just keeps going, man. 7.53% for the week ended September 29th. That was report out today. The index of home purchase applications fell 5.7% to 136.6%. The lowest level, there it is on the bottom part of this chart. We'll blow it up since 1995, man. This one only goes back to 2020. Look at these mortgage rates, man. What are we talking about? Look at how it dips under three, right? I mean, you had a long time to refinance it anywhere between, even call it under four, right? A long time, man. And boy, I mean, we had a lot of technical traders out there. The trend is not your friend here. OK, mortgage rates are going up, man. If you're a momentum trader, this trend has not reversed in any way. And applications are going to run hand-in-hand with that, all right? I mean, it doesn't mean you don't have to be a rocket scientist to take a look at a longer term chart and understand why. Now, it's remarkable. This is the 30-year. OK, the 10-year does not go back that far. The 10-year only goes back to 2002. We got a little 103.20 out here. The way we're dropping, folks. Nothing's saying we can't hit there. And what I keep talking about on this program, and it was a lot easier to talk about, actually, right? I mean, we started having this conversation, maybe at the beginning of last month, beginning of September or so, when you had the 30-year at 121, we're now at 111. And the point I was making was at 121, that's only about 35 days ago, you're basically buying at highs in the 30-year anytime before 2008. Now that's changed to at 111. But still, I'm going to put a chart, I'm going to put, check this out, OK? I'm going to put a line on here of where we're trading at right now in the 30-year. And this is the entire 30-year trading range. It's the trading range for the 30-year bond, OK? The entire trading range for the 30-year bond from the years 1996 to 2008 over a, 12-year period, you're near the upper boundary, OK? And boy, if you want to back it up from the period of 2003 to 1995, and that's as far as it goes back, it's going to be even worse when you go below that, OK? You start getting 80s-error inflation in this chart, and you're really going to look like you're still buying at the highs here. So context is important in everything as you go forward. Quite a reversal. And yeah, bonds are going to be in focus, man. Look at this momentum, right? I mean, we had a channel line at one point on a short-term basis in the year 2022. You break back up. Let's see on Fibonacci level where we got to. Yeah, look at that, man. Those 3A2s, right? It looked like it. You break out of the channel line, you get to a 3A2. And if this is an E to B, C to D, man, and where can you start this, right? Where does the trend start? Let's just say we started in March of 2022. You go from 160 and a 117. What's that, $43? Boy, that would take you to 90. So check it out, right? That's just your A to B from March of 2022 to October of 2022. You get a 3A2 retracement, and then you form the C point at about 134. Brings you to about 91 if you get that full extension. And where is 91, man, right here, right? I hadn't even done that before. And that's just the A to B, C to D. You see it on a longer-term basis. All right, now that might not be the natural A point of that acceleration, but that's almost the most conservative if that's your B point right there, right? I mean, you want to get wild. You could say your A point's at 167 instead of 160. You add 7 to that, and that's bringing down to 84, which would be below where you were trading at in 1994. Wild stuff across the board, no matter what. But mortgage rates are up to say the least. Okay, where else are we going here? Yeah, we're going to talk... Okay, we've got two articles to talk about. No, we'll talk about it right now before the market opens. Let's make sure we'll check in on the markets. S&P up by about 7. Okay, this one is talking about insurance rates. Okay, Wall Street Journal article out when? Earlier this morning. Yeah, out this morning. I was reading it before the program. Homeowners flock to last resort insurance policies. I've been talking about this in the program with citizens. I own a duplex in Tampa, South Tampa, somewhat off Bayshore, not in a flood zone. Okay, so I'm fortunate there where I'm just about a block and a half away from Bayshore but the way that my altitude, the topical nature, I'm high enough that I've got some altitude to my property where I'm not in a flood zone. Okay, so this is not some high risk flood zone property. I'm at like 15 feet in Tampa, which for Tampa folks, if I have trouble for a flood, man, Tampa would really be in trouble because it's such a low lying Bay area. I'm pretty high, especially for where I am in South Tampa. But I've talked about that it's a duplex. Each side is about 800 square feet, total square feet, 1,590 square feet. Each side is a two bedroom, one bath. So in essence, it's a single family home neighborhood and it's grandfathered in as a duplex. So you can't even rebuild a duplex in this neighborhood. Okay, so it's essentially a four bedroom, two bath, 1600 square foot home in a single family neighborhood, which is somewhat how it's insured. Okay, the private insurance rate that they had that I was paying as my insurance rolled over this year, $7,360. Okay, I may be off by a few dollars, but $7,360. The citizen's insurance rate, the prior the state insurer of last resort, $1,200. Now there's some risks to that, but not when you're going from 7,200 from 1,200. We'll be back for the open. We'll talk some insurance, stay tuned folks. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the Euro dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive he just hosted, Forex strategies, and fundamentals what is behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive he just hosted, Forex strategies, and fundamentals what is behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30 day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis, and it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern. For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Just one second, folks, welcome back. We're back for the open. I'm communicating as I'm doing this. We get the markets positive by five. I'm jumping into it. One moment, I apologize, but this one's an important one. All right, thank you. Okay, we have the markets positive by eight. Let's jump into the 10-minute chart, folks, on the S&Ps. S&Ps positive by nine. Nasdaq 100 positive by 56. Dow positive by 49. The Russell positive by three. Let's check in on yields as we kick off the trading day right now. The tenure, up by eight ticks. We were just above 107. Little bit of a pullback right now as yields are in focus and we're gonna talk a little bit of insurance. So this one's out from the journal this morning. Bunch of cool information in here, but I don't think it does a perfect job of accurately representing what is going on as somebody that's been dealing with this myself. So as I mentioned, right? I have a duplex. It's a 4-2 home for 1,600 square feet, 7,300 bucks, folks. I bought this property in 2013 or 2014. 2014, I think, I bought this property. I mean, you're talking about up until four or five years ago, I think the insurance was like $1,400 a year, okay? It went up to 18 and went up to 23. It went up to 24, it went up to 36 and then boom, it went up to like 72, okay? So I go to citizens and you have to almost fight with these agents for them to get you a citizens quote because they're not getting the same compensation as an insurance agent going to the insurer of last resort as that they are going to a private insurance company. So a lot of them say they don't even offer it. Either way, find the right agent. Okay, this is in Florida. They talk about what's going on in California. There's stuff going on in Texas as well. We're not the only state, but boy, I understand what's going on in Florida because it personally impacted me. So I go to citizens and you're talking about $1,200, from $7,200, okay? Folks, you run that scenario over two or three years. I'm saving $18,000 to $20,000. I can buy myself a brand new roof without even insurance at that. I can buy two roofs practically at that price. Over three years, the type of money you're saving, okay? So they have some anecdotal people in here that they're talking about, okay? But this is the quick, you're talking about a California fair plan and then they have the Florida citizens. So the California number is in green. The Florida number here is in, we'll call it gold. These are last resort plans, okay? More than 30 states have some form of a last resort plan for people who can't get coverage elsewhere. And listen, to qualify for citizens, and I'm gonna try and find this out at the next break. They should have more information in here about the pure facts of what it takes to qualify for citizens, the type of differences that you're seeing and the policies that the private insurers are offering. I am not in a flood zone, okay? Now, what this article also talks about is, a lot of times the people who are going onto these last resort plans are the people who are the highest risk, right? Cause private insurers don't wanna insure them. There's less of a market for the highest risk policies. Therefore, those policies most likely to go into those last resort plans, but that's not the case everywhere, man. Florida has quite a deal going on, which is why, since 2018, you've seen a million people get added, a million. Now that's the number of policies, folks. I think there's only 23 million people in Florida. Let's see, 21.78, yeah, and 2021. So we got 23 million people in the entire state. And meanwhile, we've added a million extra policies. Now those policies are gonna probably include two, three, four people, and in certain instances, even more on some levels, okay? California has accelerated as well, but nothing to the degree of Florida, especially when you look at how big California is, okay? And as I said, I understand Florida a lot more than I understand what's going on in other states cause I've been living it, okay? Now, they talk about it here, the surging number of last resort policyholders who by their nature tend to be higher risk. And that's true when I'm telling you in Florida, it's not the case, okay? I have a property that is not in a flood zone. I think I'm in the second zone, but boy, there's a dramatic difference in being at a 15 feet foot elevation versus being on the shore in a flood zone, okay? There's so many houses that are in flood zones in that first zone of zone A, whatever they call it. They're calling it a slow motion train wreck. Well, that's that one, that one I agree. Insurers are concerned they'll have to pick up the tab if the California fair plan can't meet its claims. Now this is where things get real, man. You know there's a possibility, okay? That eventually we might have a storm. We've been very fortunate in Florida so far this year, but that's not always gonna be the case. So here, Florida in particular, Floridians with citizens policies could get hit with a surcharge of up to 45% of their premiums if the plan is wiped out by a big storm. Here's the kicker though, folks. I just told you the numbers. 45% of my premium would be like a $500 surcharge on top of my $1,200 policy, bringing me to $17 to $1,800 for my premium. And meanwhile, the private insurance rate for my property was $7,360. Bananas, okay? And what I think is so unfair is that this is where you get some of the quotes. Policy holders are much better off being with a private insurance company than citizens, not only for better coverage, but to escape the potential tax that can happen. And that's a Florida, a former Florida insurance regular. Well, Lisa Miller, I would agree on many occasions that actually the market is so out of whack right now that you can get dinged with a 50% premium and I'm still saving 75% off of what I pay for private insurance. Now there's a couple differences there. I have a back shed area, external standing entities are not covered as much to their differences, okay? I am not an insurance professional. I'm not an insurance broker. Contact your insurance broker in a big way, okay? There are differences in these policies and in order to qualify for citizens, the private rate has to be X percentage above where you'd be paying. As in, you're only able to qualify for citizens if the private insurance alternative is X percentage above where you're just, they feel at least that you're getting priced out of the market which is why it is that last resort. Now, the politicians got to solve this, right? Well, how do they solve it? Well, one thing is that maybe citizens shouldn't be as cheap because maybe they're really not covering the insurance rate for a property in Florida right now. State lawmakers and regulators going back to the article are taking steps to try and reverse the influx into last resort plans by moving policy holders back into private home insurance policies, okay? You have California's dealing with this as well. They have wildfire risk, has threatened the ongoing stability of the plan. Texas is mentioned, okay? Texas Windstorm Insurance Association which covers wind and hail losses for certain coastal properties, charges homeowners 20% less than the rate needed to cover the underlying risks. An report showed, an official report showed but the plans board appointed indirectly by the governor voted to keep rates unchanged the fourth time in the past five years. There has been no increase, why? Because politicians control the rates on certain plans. Now listen, this goes deeper, okay? But in certain areas they do, but check out how hard it is to get people off the rolls. In this spring, the state offered 31,000, this is Texas they're talking about, okay? Of its 200,000 policy holders, the chance to switch to a private insurer and just 46 people accepted the offer. I don't think it was a good offer if they only got 46 out of 32,000. Florida also charges insufficiently high rates to cover the risks in its last resort plan. We're gonna talk a little bit more about this folks. We're also gonna talk some Amazon when we come back, all right? We'll talk some insurance, we'll talk some Amazon. Talking about using algorithms to raise prices shouldn't be too surprising. Markets positive by 50. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com, educating investors. Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on U.S. large-cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS? Directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs. Direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit DirectionInvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. tfnn has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigeresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of tfnn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks, we have markets in positive territory. We have the S&Ps up by 12 points right now. We jump over to the dollar index. We got the dollar index pulling back from the highs of yesterday, 107.34 yesterday. We're backing off to 106.68 to talk about some of the market action. Let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegsdatt. Folks, you can read Teddy's Tiger Forex report. He puts it out new issues every Monday with updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check it out under the newsletter tab at tfnn. You can subscribe for $97, comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. Teddy's got some great insights in there as he breaks down the market action. And of course, don't forget about the webinars. Teddy is done. We have the archives available. He's got two up there already and we got some more planned in the future as well, but you can reach those right under the services tab whether you're talking about capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads or Japanese candlestick pattern stock and option strategies with our man, Teddy Kegsdatt. With that, let's jump into it. Teddy Kegsdatt, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Boy, where do we start off, man? I guess, how about some yields? Why not? Because they're driving some of the action at least. We got some good action today, as usual, when we talk to you, but what do you think about the yield conversation, man? A little bit of a pullback today, but boy, yesterday, quite the acceleration. Yeah, well, we're definitely pounding these new lows in the bond and tenure markets, that's for sure. But this is what we've been talking about for the past few months. We're trading at levels that we should be at right now. Right now, the interest rate market is looking for fair value. I think it's starting to find it. So I think that the media sensationalizes things and the public may not like where things are at, but that's because they're accustomed to a fantasy that was a complete illusion. And now I think people are starting to realize that they have to come out from that spell. Yeah, it seems like there's been a dramatic repricing. And I'm not sure it's slowing down just yet. We got quite a reversal from three in the morning last night, but boy, on a longer-term picture, not really that big of a reversal considering where we've been and where we are right now. What do you, do you have an opinion of the tenure in terms of where you think it might head to? I know you talk a lot about the 30 year in the Tiger Forex report as well, but it seems like, you know, everybody loves talking about the tenure. We're hearing people out there saying 5%, mortgage rates going eight, but do you have a number out there for the tenure? Is that just gonna be dependent on where we go with the Fed or do you have an opinion on that one? Well, actually I'm looking at the next couple economic numbers because right now we're starting to stretch the extreme for the yield curve. Okay, it's from the long end to the short end. So are we due for correction? Absolutely. I mean, the volatility we've had over the past two weeks, let alone the past four to five weeks, has been pretty, pretty extreme, you know? So when you start to push a trend like that, you got to realize that we're in a bull market for yields right now. So we're pushing the highs from the short end to the long end of the curve, okay? So as we're doing this, we should have some sort of pullbacks, you know? Now we're already, we already know that expectations are pretty much built in for as how much the Fed is gonna raise rates over the next probably six months, okay? So let's just say that that is somewhat reasonably right, that it's gonna be a quarter to a three quarter point hike over that period, okay? That's pretty much factored into the market consensus already. And once again, we're starting to get to fair value. So can we see a little bit higher uptick in yields over the next like couple of weeks or so? I think it's very possible. I wouldn't say that we should try and pick a bottom. I mean, like over the past two weeks, there's been some good reasons to fade the yield curve and you'd be very hard pressed to try and even get a bounce out of that, you know? So I wouldn't try and catch a falling knife with it. I do think that we're gonna see a little bit of a retraction in yields, you know? I mean, you gotta realize we're coming off of the end of third quarter. Now we're into the beginning of fourth quarter. October, we're gonna see what happens with the equity markets, you know? I mean, but right now I think you have, all these markets aren't extreme. Gold has been tanking. Oil finally is getting a little bit of a pullback. Obviously yields are hammering, you know, through new highs, you know? And I think that that trend is gonna continue. I mean, look at the dollar, how strong it's been. I mean, all these markets are trending so severe. Should we have a pullback? Absolutely. I wouldn't get married to any pullback. I'd be looking more for trend trades, meaning like trade the bounces right now, look for that than trying to, you know, go fade the trend. I'd be very careful fading the trend right now just because momentum is so extreme. I appreciate the take and the analysis and I agree with a lot of it. And when you say, you know, fading the trend as in, in the long haul right now we have rates that are going higher and we have a dollar that's going higher. So is that, you know, the trends that you're talking about when you say that? Correct, correct. Absolutely. Right now until we see a reversal of the Fed, I mean, okay, could we set a top in the yields over the next like, even like week or so? Absolutely. I mean, look at how far, look at how far the yields pulled back just over the past six months. You know, I had been talking about it for, you know, four months ago, five months ago, you look at these interviews, I was saying, hey, we need to take out the lows of last fall, you know, just to be even close to fair value, you know? I mean, we were so much trading at such a discount. I mean, relatively, I remember it's an inverse relationship, you know, that people thought they keep thinking that's the normal. Well, that rubber band effect is gone, you know? And I think you're going to see less and less of that. So right now, yeah, I would look for the bounces and when you get the bounces, expect a decent pullback in yields, but I wouldn't get married to them. I'd be very cautious, especially like, look at the numbers. And if we still see low unemployment for the next three quarter or three months going into the end of the year, that's not what the Fed wants. They want higher unemployment. If unemployment starts to even look like it's down ticking, well, then you might start to see the Fed lean on, we're going to have a full basis point hike over the next like six months or so, versus just a half a point or so, you know? And then also look at what happened with where the yen is at too. We're at that 150 mark. There's a lot of talk about intervention from the Japanese bank coming in. Is that going to happen? They haven't said anything yet, but they are pushing that level. Is that going to really interfere with the dollar overall? Not too much, you know, in the short run, it probably will with that currency relationship, you know, but if the BOJ does raise rates and if other central banks raise rates, well, it's very good chance that our Fed is not going to stop raising rates. You know, are they going to be the first one to stop? Very possibly will be. But once again, remember, they're looking for certain economic numbers that we really haven't seen a pullback in inflation like they're looking for, you know, and there's certain targets that we're still way off on hitting, you know? And if that trend continues, I think you have to still look at the fact that, hey, you know, a year from now we could be looking at mortgage rates at 10, 11%, you know, I mean, do people want to hear that? No, but that's a reality. And then I can see us pulling back to where we're at right now. I think we're setting, right now, it's resistance. Eventually it's going to become support, the area that we're at right now. Yeah, it's a possibility to say the least, man, as in we're almost at 8% mortgage rates, right? So people better believe that there's some risk to the upside, even though that seems like quite a number. Boy, 8% mortgages seem like quite a number, not that long ago. And we're basically sitting right there. But that's not that inflationary if you look at the levels we're at now. You know, over the past year and a half we've seen a huge jump going from 1% to 8% mortgage or whatever, you know what I mean? Like that's a huge jump. If we go from 8% to 10%, well, that's really, right? Mathematically, it's not that much of a percentage, right? What is funny though is that, and not funny or interesting, I was looking at some of the numbers and we all understand it. But boy, when you're compounding that type of interest over 30 years, right? You start going from an 8 to a 10. The payment that goes with it, you know, it's a bigger dollar jump from an 8% to a 10% increase than it is from a 6 to an 8, obviously, because you're only going from a 6 to an 8, you go from the 8 to the 10. That 2 percentage point is actually adding more, just real dollars to the payment, which it just keeps going, man. Can you hang with us, Teddy, for one more segment, man? Perfect, we'll keep talking about it, folks. I wanted to talk a little bit just about the Euro in there as well. Talk to some crude. We'll come back, we'll talk to our man, Teddy. We'll talk some crude oil to wrap up the program. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. The SOS, Bond's, The South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations, the Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at tfnn.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com. Educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. tfnn.com. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. We've got markets in positive territory, S&Ps up by about 12, pretty much where we've been trading for the entirety of the trading session so far. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Don't forget to check out Teddy's Tiger Forex report and the trading webinars under the services tab, folks, and I've got to talk a little bit accrued, Teddy. Quite the pullback from the recent highs. Sorry, I'm jumping around my chart right now. We are at $86.72, man. You back it up though. We were at $95 recently. What do you think of the action in crude? Oh, I love it, Tommy. You know, when we talked last week, we were on the highs, you know, and right now we're trading in that area, that 86 to 84 is where I'm looking for the market to pull back and stabilize. And then I think we're going to get a bounce and start heading back up to the highs again. I think that right now the trend is your friend, right? Any type of downside action, I believe, is definitely a correction and a break to buy right now. And especially the area where we're at right now, I would say that, you know, could we hold it for a couple of sessions or maybe even a week? Yeah, we might see some nice digestion. I think we'll chop around and still poke the, you know, test support a little bit. I don't think we're going to get below the $84 area. I think if you, the only way you'd see a turn is if we got back below the, you know, $77 range and I don't think we're going to be anywhere near there for quite some time. I see us stabilizing here around the mid 80s and then starting to poke back up to above $90.95 over the next couple of weeks. Yeah, the volatility is wild, man. And just I have it up on the chart here as you're talking about it, 86.70 right now, that high from August 10th on my chart, $84.89. And then interesting that high back there in April, $83.53. So both those areas potentially an area that it could trade to. Well, Teddy, I appreciate the time as always, man. I appreciate the conversation and we'll talk to you next Wednesday. All right. Sounds good, Tommy. You have a great weekend. You too. Folks, thanks so much for tuning in. Stay tuned. We've got a man Basil Chapman. He's coming up next. We've got live programming today. Don't forget to check out Mr. Peter Bruno with the Wall Street Money Hour. New program live from two till 3 p.m. Eastern time every market day. My dad, Tom O'Brien, he's back in the chair today live from three till four. And yeah, market digesting a little bit of a reprieve. We'll finish it up with yields. There's your tenure right now. We're still positive by 11 ticks. Yeah, well off. Almost a full point off of those lows. You talk about moves, man. Keep your eye on yields. Folks, thanks so much for starting your trading day off. Stay tuned. We've got a man Basil Chapman. He's coming up next. Have a great Wednesday. I'll see you tomorrow at nine.