 We've had two polls that have shown a considerable drop for the Labour Party, both the Roy Morgan poll and that was preceded the News Hub poll, have showed a considerable drop in support for Jacinda Ardern's Labour Party. And Jacinda Ardern said that she's not concerned about those polls, and that's just the arrogance of them showing through. What we've seen though is that the ACT Party has managed to hoover up a good amount of support, but also there's three and a half percent support there for New Zealand First slash Winston Peters as well, which means that he's on the cusp two years out from an election of being re-elected. It doesn't take much to get to five percent, he just needs to peel off another one and a half to two percent from the Labour Party, which he'd be easily able to do, especially if he comes out and says to people, you know, it makes a pitch that, you know, are you missing the handbrake yet? That's all he needs to do really, and with the extent of the stupidity that's going on with this government at the moment, it's a valid argument to make and he could easily peel off two percent from the Labour Party just on that pitch alone. I think ACT is probably topped out, maybe they'll eke another one percent out, but where they're getting their votes from is from the right wing of the National Party, and so the next group of block of votes that will split off will be those centre voters that are looking for an alternative government, and that's when National will cash in. So that's my view on where we're at at the moment with the polls. Now, I don't believe they can, there's a thing in government called inertia. It's the same as getting listeners to change from listening to news talks, ZB to listening to another radio station, the inertia of the audience won't move, and in politics it's different. It's that if you make a policy change today, you won't see the effects of that policy change for at least two years. The Labour government's made huge policy changes, particularly around housing, around child poverty, and all of those indicators have got worse for the government, not better, despite their changes. And so anything they do today to try and arrest that decline in the polls is not going to bear fruit in time for the election, and actual fact it'll probably get worse for them before the election. Now, I think they're on a slide, and even now, even just two percent for every couple of months by the wayside for the Labour Party, then they've got a real chance of being tossed out. And bear in mind in 2017, they became the government from second place. So National doesn't actually have to get in front of them, they just have to be slightly behind them in second place, and the other parties like New Zealand First and Act will then support a change of government. I believe they are. They've basically chopped out all of the wet wing. Most of them lost their seats at the last election anyway. What remains are towing the party line. They learnt their lesson very, very badly at the hands of Todd Moller and Matthew Hootin and the other paratroops that thought that they could govern the National Party from a position of standing in a puddle. It didn't work. And Judith has been studiously making sure that the team are firing. You're starting to get people like Nicola Willis getting real good hits on Megan Woods and housing. You're seeing Chris Bishop starting to make inroads around discussions around the vaccine roll out and all of those sorts of things. Infrastructure is in an appalling state and we saw last night with the power brown outs that the energy policies are now in question. And New Zealand is waking up to the fact that these policies sound great as a sermon or as a bumper sticker slogan, but in reality it means that you've got no power that you're shiver at home and cold. We're sitting on acres and acres and acres of coal reserves in New Zealand. We've got some of the largest coal reserves in the world. And we're importing millions of tonnes of Indonesian coal to fuel our power system and to cover the gaps. It doesn't make sense that we're importing coal when we could use our own. I'm sure we could deploy new technology that would make coal a lot cleaner. That would be a whole lot cheaper than trying to exist on fantasy dreamlands about wind power and solar power and all sorts of other nonsense about renewable power. Bottom line is, is everyone wants renewable power until the power goes out. Well, there's never an election tomorrow. There's always an election campaign. Currently, Labour and Greens hold the poll position, but only barely. If there was an election campaign that started tomorrow, then I think you'd see a different outcome from what the polls show the position is today. Because Labour's got no successes that they can claim. They've run out of excuses now. They've been in power for four years. They can't claim that it's nine long years of neglect anymore. People just won't wear that. The COVID effect is worn off. People are frustrated. Businesses are still seriously recovering from the impact of the lockdowns. And sure, it stopped COVID spreading in New Zealand. But I'm unsure as to whether COVID would have spread anyway because of the way that we live with separate dwellings and lots of space between us. Huge rural population as well. I'm not sure that you can compare places like Italy to New Zealand, maybe in parts of Auckland you could do that, but the rest of the country you can't. So I don't think that the government is standing on solid ground. I think that they think that COVID is the answer and they'll be desperately hoping there's a Delta variant outbreak that allows them to lock down and bring that fear back into the population so that the so-called sheeple, the dull-witted amongst us who do everything that they're told to do will dutifully comply with dear leader as she speaks from the podium of truth. And the simple fact is that we haven't had daily brainwashing from Jacinda Ardern because we haven't had any more lockdowns or anything like that. So I think they're standing on very, very shaky ground. Well what it will look like and what I want are probably two slightly different things. I actually am hoping that we end up with three similarly sized parties being able to join together to form a coalition and I think that would show that MMP actually does work if we had, say, ACT in New Zealand first of about the same size and slightly behind national in terms of size. I think that MMP is a failure when there is one large party and one small party or even a couple of small parties, but the large party can dominate using, you know, divide and conquer. I think if we had three evenly balanced parties forming a coalition that you would see a lot more stability and you wouldn't get these radical lurches that we've been seeing and that's what I'd like to see. I think it'll be pretty close to that. I don't think you're going to see national at the levels they had under John Key. I think those were artificially high for unknown reasons really. I mean, if you look at the philosophical background of John Key, you really stood for nothing. If you asked anybody in the street what had John Key achieved, about the only thing they say is, oh, well, he saw us through the global financial crisis and I always reply to that and you don't think Michael Cullen would have done the same thing. So I don't think that John Key was that special. I've seen a lot of politicians in my life and he's certainly not special. He certainly has no core beliefs. He's basically a pole-driven fruitcake and he believed in his own immortality politically and the only thing that saw that dented was his insistence on pursuing a flag referendum. I told him to his face that it was going to fail and he told me that, no, no, I'll convince everybody, I'll talk about how great it'll be as a marketing strategy and it'll work and I told him he was wrong. So I think Jacinda's in the same position. She thinks that she's immortal politically. She thinks that she can explain her way out of any of her particular problems that they're facing at the moment. Their non-delivery and housing, their transport disasters, the failure of the vaccine rollout, the abject failure in child poverty, they've got no wins. They've got nothing that they can take to the electorate and now whenever they make a big promise like, for instance, the cycle bridge in Auckland Harbour, everyone's going to laugh at them and say, well, how do we know you're not going to reverse that because it becomes unpopular? How do we know you're just not going to be able to deliver it? So I think they've got huge problems in terms of credibility. If they say we're going to promise to put rapid rail to Toweronga, everyone will laugh in their face. They haven't delivered a single thing. Even the train from Hamilton to Papakura is an abject failure. You've got carriages parting ways on their 40 kilometre an hour trundle up the tracks. It takes two hours. It takes one hour to drive. So why would you take the train? It doesn't make sense. And nothing they do make sense. I'm in line with what Bob Jones has said and we published his article on our side. And he believes firmly that we're going to see a change of government at the next election. Now, what that make up will be will depend on the election pictures that they make. But I think National is solidify. You know, when you look at the polls, it always pays to look through at the polls through the lens of the other team. So Jacinda Ardern's team are arrogantly sitting there on the high side of a think about polls as a river, a stream, if you want, through the electorate. And you've got one party on one side and one party on the other side of the stream. Labour's on the high bank and they're looking down at the low bank and seeing that the flood waters have come through and, you know, nationals knee deep in a bit of mud and stuff like that. And but what they're not realising, they're not looking down at their own bank and they can't actually see their own bank from where they're standing. Whereas nationals looking back at them and seeing that that river, those polls are actually undermining the the the bank that Labour is standing on and every little bit of bad news chips away a little bit more of the bank and a little bit more of that and a little bit more of the bank. And then eventually you get a slump. Now, we saw the start of that slump nine percent over nine percent in one poll. If they get another, you know, two or three percent, four percent, five percent slump in the next set of polls, you got a real problem. And that bank is now collapsed underneath Labour. And the chances of them being able to scramble back up onto dry ground very slim indeed.