 So the question is really what defines Bitcoins stock to flow and Manu did the black box approach So he was looking at treating Bitcoin like a block black box and only looking at the output the Bitcoin blockchain So he mentioned you need a full node and can get all the data from the Bitcoin network Don't have to download it from somewhere you get it on your own full node and you look at what comes out it's the blockchain and Another approach in engineering or reverse engineering is the white box approach that you don't look at the input and the output But you just look at the inside of the engine and I would like to do this little Experiment with you and help you Doing this or showing you that it's not so difficult So there's many ways to do this one approach is to look at the source code, which is on github. I think not everybody heard of github or Probably not everybody here ever used it. So I will give you a bit of a feeling or it looks like so lots of very functional that's why I hide Or I blend it and only show you the important parts So actually bit cop github is like a Facebook for developers where people can meet and exchange instead of cat videos they exchange software code and One interesting thing about the Bitcoin project and github is test 678 contributors right now that it's people contributing to the code base of Bitcoin core Not the whole Bitcoin ecosystem because there are many other Bitcoin Implementations, but this is the main one Bitcoin core. So just for a comparison when what's app sold to Facebook? They were like a 50 people camp company, but Probably 10 developers serving Around a 1 1 billion users Bitcoin as a Bitcoin cores a significant amount of contributors. The other one is the the license It's under the MIT the Massachusetts Institute of Technology license, which is the most open license Which means you can do anything with this code bait. No patents. You just have to mention who you Used that code from Another thing interesting is the Number of watchers on this project so whenever somebody changes a single line of code in this main project 3500 people get an email about they are notified about that change so they can watch it inspected and we have Around 25,000 forks of the software already. This doesn't mean that every of these forks is a Cryptocurrency we can see in the wild. Yeah, I can fork it and then I have my own code base to play with just under my account but it's a very popular project and many cryptocurrencies are Mainly a Bitcoin code with a few modifications Okay, so this tool GitHub allows you to dive into the source code and What I would like to show you is there's a file validation Where's the validation happen and if you scroll there in line 2200 there's don't get scared. Yeah, I know Nobody's a on not many are your developer. That's why I make it really easy But there's a function. It's called get block subsidy and this function is executed every time there's a new block and the block needs to be validated if if there's the amount of Bitcoin in new Bitcoin introduced as is valid and And here's the first the harvings is calculated. That's what's manual mentioned That it takes the current height so today I looked up the euro at 600,007 something that's the block number that have been about More more than 600,000 blocks found already and validated and it's divided by the called subsidy harving interval So, what is it? There's another fire. It's called chain pyramids parameters height The non or the not so important things there you can see it Yeah, the subsidy harving interval for the Bitcoin mainnet is defined as 200,000 so every 200,000 blocks Bitcoin is a new epoch in a new era in the beginning when the height was one one divided by 210,000 is Zero if you round it to an integer number. Yeah, so in the beginning there was the There was no harving epoch but since we are in 600,000 now beyond the second harving epoch and This is the subsidy which is allowed. So it's 50 multiplied with coin coin is defined as 100 million I don't show this here. So one Bitcoin is 5 billion that 50 Bitcoin is 5 billion Satoshi 50 times 100 million, but Since we calculated the harvings before It's a bit weird operator in C++. It's called the right bit shift You could also Write the same line as we divide the subsidy the 50 Bitcoin by the harvings multiplied with two So we have the new subsidy with every harving epoch. It's just It would get a problem in a problem with a division by zero in the first epoch that why this is a very geeky But a more convenient line To explain how to write this Yeah, and then what's the last thing for the stock to flow is we have the 10 minutes manual mentioned So here it's in in seconds 10 times 60. That's the target for the space the time space between the blocks should be 10 minutes and the difficulty is adjusted every two weeks which if you do write the Timespan by the spacing you get to every 2016 blocks the difficulties Difficulty in Bitcoin should be adjusted either up or down what I want to show you with this exercise that Bitcoin almost doesn't deserve the word cryptocurrency because in the money monetary definition How much money should exist it's a high school math or even maybe every 10 year old who has Some some basic reading and and computer knowledge can start looking into this and So it's not like people have to think Bitcoin is this magic high crypto Cryptography internet money where only a few people can understand it and validate it Whenever there's a new Bitcoin release for instance We know our company we don't download the binaries or the machine code Which is provided by that project you can do that in GitHub but we download the soft code and just look at the differences to the Previous version and and compile the Bitcoin software for own takes a few minutes of an hour Depending on your machine, but there's no need to trust somebody who develops this code and future generations who learn like basic Programming like language like we learn a foreign language They can see that and verify for themselves what the code is But what guarantees that this code isn't changed so it we figured out okay stock to flow worked until now According to the model because the model is actually Programmed into the code. It's not like we did this covered something. It just verified as Barney I mentioned that the the stock to flow In reality is like it's programmed and for some reason the market price or market cap is following that so Bitcoin has over 100,000. We call them first-class citizens. That's people who run that code I just showed you on for themselves at home at work on their computers and Actually anybody can change the code, but what happens is that you create like a new species Yeah, I can change the code. You can change the code after I showed you where To find it and that's actually exactly what happened in the last 11 years that a lot of Different forks or Childs of Bitcoin were created, but whenever you create a new child of Bitcoin It's a single fish which is out there alone and Nobody from the Bitcoin fish farm will talk to that Child so Bitcoin isn't technology where you can change the code But you can only change or fork yourself off the network But you cannot force everybody else in the network to accept your change or force people into that Change because everybody has the software on under their own control and Doesn't need to follow you so, but this would mean that any cryptocurrency which is modeled after a certain Stock to flow schedule and released as a cryptocurrency should follow the the the market cap should follow that and The question is we see it right now only with Bitcoin and what makes sure that in the future The market really keeps following Bitcoin and not tomorrow another cryptocurrency or in a year So here to the audio top 2400 coins And what we can see is that From all the coins of what we manually you only did it for for litecoin But none of the other coins and I guess there are many who have like a similar algorithm like Bitcoin in there They are not Following the Bitcoin performance. They are all trending either to zero or to Stabilizing as Manuel mentioned it to the Bitcoin value so the black one is Bitcoin and then you have the plot of all the other ones and litecoin is probably It was created in 2000 1311 I think probably it could be named. Yeah, probably the yellow one is litecoin So that's the reality and This is the the Conclusion I come with is that technology doesn't matter for for cryptocurrencies The parameters don't matter the throughput doesn't matter because they have many cryptocurrencies suit Said we have higher throughput more velocity more transactions Is not driving the value even convenience? Yeah, because many projects say okay Bitcoin is The first one, but we know how to make it nicer Talking about the adoption now that we have the better user interface more convenience for the user all of this doesn't seem to matter and We figured out that Bitcoin has eight unique Eight unique properties where it is the leader in all of these areas, so I cannot talk about them in detail now This would take a bit longer quite a bit longer Regarding the openness you already I gave you an example in the beginning that everybody can look in the code It's it's not super complicated. Anybody can join the Bitcoin network Anybody in anyone in the world. It's the the borderless characteristic It's a decentralized project. There's no leader even Bitcoin cores not the leader defining the path of the project It's a distributed network where every node has the same roles as all the others It's a permission less network You don't need to ask anybody for permission to change it or to innovate on it to join it it has censorship resistance properties and The what what you will realize of the fears in the spaces everybody writes this into their white paper that they have these properties but Only the green ones here openness borderless distributed Can be a design choice so you can design your cryptocurrency to be open or you can design it Okay, I want it to be closed I wanted to be a borderless or I wanted to be it while it only within my country You can design it to be distributed or centralized Even permissionless you can say I can introduce KYC mechanisms to my cryptocurrencies or not and censorship resistance. I can also implement something like blacklisting whatever But the other properties like decentralization immutable and trustless or spontaneous emerging properties So you can copy Bitcoin, but you won't copy these eight properties Maybe the first one, but then you will have a greater week a lot greater weakness on trustlessness immutable the tea and decentralization and I I explain this That Bitcoin has something like a firewall and that's the the time and energy that goes into the network to protect it so We can see this in numbers the Bitcoin hashrate so the mining power is at around 100 extra hash per second right now you can imagine this like Deflector shield in Star Trek that you need to have at least and an attacker would have to add at least the energy of the force field which protects the Bitcoin network to attack it and This is not something you can design in the code. It has nothing to do with the code so Here we can see this in another number that Time multiplied with energy right now. It would take 400 days the Computing power of the Bitcoin network if the Bitcoin network would stop doing what it does and try to rewrite the blockchain It would take 400 days to do this But of course if an attacker Even if it has the same amount of energy available and the hardware So it's not only the energy, but you also need the mining chips Which have a stock to flow and in the production of the mining chip factories You it would take the attack of 400 days to get to the point where Bitcoin is now But Bitcoin keeps doing for 400 days and is already 400 days ahead again So you would probably lead at least twice the energy and computing power Bitcoin consumes right now to attack the network and it's you can Think of the other fork of Bitcoin here's Bitcoin cash which has only a resistance of like I think it's 37 days right now so If the other cryptocurrencies you always have the risk that the Bitcoin network could if they wanted if they had an interest Spend a few resources to attack weaker networks and this is what Greatly contributes to the immutability and trustlessness that everybody who sees these numbers says, okay Bitcoin is really really hard to attack and with all the other networks. They have a weaker protection Because there is no real immutability in the universe. So everything is immutable even our son Which we think we cannot destroy but Someday a few million years it will be gun so in our universe. There is nothing like that But practical immutability for us humans is only defined in the maximum by the Bitcoin network And if you make a sacrifice on any of these eight properties They are the other ones will collapse So this 21 million market cap there will be never more than 21 million The most credible network which can fulfill this promise is the Bitcoin net So we can in terms of stock to flow or interesting for stock to flow we can Categorize two types of digital currencies. So one sound money. I would Call litecoin as well as Bitcoin Induces area may be something like Monero. So you can do the white box Analysis and you see in the code. Okay, it has sound money properties and you have easy money Maybe something like a theorem which doesn't have a cap and whenever they should make it more difficult to To print more money than there's a call and with six developers They know we delay the difficulty bump then as happened last week or two weeks ago Then you see there's politics involved which can Doesn't matter what's written in the code of a consortium of a few people can decide, okay We don't make it harder to print money like with Bitcoin. So this is the difference Yeah, make money printing money hard or ideally impossible and easy money is mainly to enrich the founders or The weird economic concepts behind these cryptocurrencies and there you can see stock to flow is completely irrelevant for easy money So if you're interested in easy money, why do you even care about stock to flow? The idea is to have a flexibility with sound money it Reduces the uncertainty about what money I mentioned the future stock to flow Easy money Increases the uncertainty about future stock to flow. So We only need to lock look into the candidates in the sound money area and they are the question is yeah It's clear that maybe something like light coin Or something like Ethereum doesn't follow a stock to flow maybe something even something like ripple Yeah, there were 100 billion tokens creating in the beginning. There is no stock There is no flow. Yeah, the stock is there from the beginning, but it was easy to print somebody just hit enter and then there were 100 billion tokens, but The market doesn't care because what's uncertain is the entity who has the majority of these token in which frequency They will really be a reason reason it to the market so You can imagine Bitcoin like a supermassive monetary gravitation object If in the area of sound money is only the hardest one will probably be able to reflect the stock to flow value in the market capitalization capitalization and I explained that if The value of Bitcoin would be below the stock to flow then somebody would realize Exploit that possibility that the value is too low and move money from the easier commodities Into that one and if it's something like in 2017 happens then the price overshoots the model value too much the reason is that you can never Consider money in isolation isolation, but also always within an economy and if something like in 2017 happens then the prices for the existing Bitcoin holders for products will be Relatively cheap because their money appreciated so much that their time preference kicks in and Purchasing decisions they had planned for the future can be fulfilled now, which will bring back the price of to the value Where it's reasonable so Money is special in terms of all the goods and services in the economy that there can never be a shortage of money, yeah, any amount of money is always enough not like with a car that Product production was planned to low and nobody can get a new car and has to wait for three or five years with money You will always find somebody who is willing to sell you just have to offer more if there's a higher demand So you can imagine Bitcoin like this black hole which is sucking value According to the stock to flow like we have in physics the gravitational constant sucking from from other monies in in its vicinity and since Bitcoin is borderless and globally everywhere then It's sucking value from all commodities which have a monetary premium in them right now according to this stock to flow model so The only thing I see what can happen is that Bitcoin explodes from within in the future that's something within the network which Doesn't work forever or not as we think now, but to cover against that You just have to learn Bitcoin and understand it goes then something like in 2017 when there was a split like two monies Almost identical Bitcoin cash only changed a little parameter increasing the block size from one megabyte to Four or eight don't remember anymore what they wanted to increase it to It would have looked completely identical from sound money properties But if you understood Bitcoin that with increasing the block size you would immediately lose 80% of the network because they're very old computers and within this 100,000 nodes that do the validation the decentralization property of Bitcoin would have been reduced greatly which would risk the the promise of the fixed market cap and This is something if you know Bitcoin if you learn Bitcoin you can anticipate or foresee in the future and something like this happens again, which one will probably be the the best decision for the network to move forward so I Can and only encourage you to to learn Bitcoin really and it's worth it The next opportunity will be this Saturday. So if you have interest we have a few slots available It's just six hours of your life to Get into this path of becoming a Bitcoin citizen. Thank you