 After two long months, NASCAR is finally back this weekend with the Darlington 400 out in Darlington and it's starting off a span where we have four Cup Series races across 11 days. And there could be even more up to that. So it's going to be a pretty wild ride these next couple of weeks. We're with you here on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast to break them all down from a fantasy perspective individually. So today we are discussing just the Darlington 400. We'll have a separate podcast next week to break down Wednesday's race. We've got USC. So a lot of things popping here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Let's dive in and break down Sunday's race. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That is right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down Sunday's race in Darlington. I'm recording this on Thursday morning, which means we don't know definitively where each driver will start. However, we do know tiers. We know roughly where they'll be, which we'll go through in the track breakdowns. We're going to discuss that, which means these are actual recommendations. Whereas usually when we record the podcast, I don't know where anyone's starting. That's all hypothetical. Today, we actually kind of know roughly where drivers will start. So hopefully a more informative podcast even than usual. As mentioned, though, we got a lot of stuff coming up here the next couple of weeks here on the DFS feed. Tomorrow, we have a UFC podcast with myself and Austin Swain breaking down Saturday's UFC card to get that. Also, our future NASCAR podcast. Make sure you are subscribed to the Heat Check Fantasy podcast on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Radio.com, you name it, we are there. So make sure you are subscribed. Also, rate and review the podcast if you like what you hear to help us out in return. Before we dive into the track breakdown for Sunday's race, Fandals Sportsbook is now available in Colorado. But what's a sportsbook with no sports? Well, it's Fandals Anything Book, Fandals' newest free game. Each day, you will pick one free prop like the weather, stocks or anything. Pick it right to win $5 in site credit, then play against Marl. Play Fandals Anything Book free only on Fandals Sportsbook. Must be $21 plus, max bonus is $50. Visit Fandals.com slash audio for terms gambling problem call 1-800-522-4700. Let's take a look here at the track breakdown for this first race in Darlington and discuss strategies for NASCAR DFS this weekend. This is the first race back after a long layoff, a two month layoff, which is going to give us a super unique set of circumstances for DFS. We'll start with the basics first. And the basics are that there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to what we're going to see this weekend. And those unknowns impact roster construction, especially if you're multi-entering for tournaments, which is the route I'd recommend for NASCAR DFS. Normally, when you're multi-entering for tournaments, we can have pretty concentrated exposure levels in NASCAR because the fields are so small. So you want to try to keep things tight so you can benefit if your core goes off. And that should still be a goal of what you're doing here if you're multi-entering in tournaments. But you may want to have lower exposure limits due to the lack of data that we have. NASCAR prudently has canceled practice, which I mean it should because it means teams don't need to bring backup cars. They're at the track less time. They're out in the open less time. That's good. But it does rob us of one avenue of data. And there are essentially three pillars of data in NASCAR DFS, practice, current form, and track history. One of those pillars is gone. We have practice data for every single race last year. So it's a pretty unique circumstance here. The first laps they will run in two months will be under green flag conditions in Darlington. They will have an extended caution early on to allow for wholesale changes, but things could get bad even before that. Drivers will likely be pretty conservative, but things could get wonky. And there's extra randomness involved because of that. And when there's extra randomness and less certainty, we want to safeguard ourselves a bit in DFS because we're gonna whiff. We need to make sure we are accounting for the fact that we're going to make mistakes and we're going to pick drivers who crash or just don't do well broadly. So if you're multi-entering for tournaments, it is wise to spread things out more so than you usually would. You still don't want to get too spread out, but there is less certainty here and that should impact our lineups. Also with no practice, you will want to learn more on what we... You want to lean more on what we saw in the first four races this year with a couple of caveats. The reason to lean on current form here is that current form is always going to be our best data when it comes to prognosticating for NASCAR DFS. Last year in Darlington, the current form section of my model actually did test better than the practice data. So current form is always good. But it's also the only four races we have seen with drivers in their current cars. So it's even more impactful than it would be normally. The Cup Series goes to Darlington just once every year. So if you want a three-race sample on track history, you're going back to 2017. Almost half of the field in that 2017 race will not be racing this weekend. Only 10 of the drivers in that race are still on the teams now that they were on at that time. So track history is important. It does matter. But it's a tougher sell given the change over we've seen in NASCAR the past couple years. And with no practice either, current form is going to be our best outlet. There are a couple of notes within current form though that I think we should keep mind of when looking back at that data from those first four races. The first thing is that there have been two months since the last race. And although they have not been on the track, teams have still had time to adjust their cars and their setups since Phoenix. They've had Zoom calls. They've had some time in the shops the past week or so to get things ready. Teams that were bad early on may not be bad on Sunday. So that's worth keeping in mind. Not a lot of time to change, but there has been at least some time. We've also seen only one race at a track that's even mildly similar to Darlington from a shape perspective that was in Las Vegas, another intermediate track. The tire fall off there though, not as great as it is in Darlington. So even that one is not really a one-to-one relationship. So it's still going to be our best avenue for data. Current form isn't perfect, but it will be our best outlet. But it's just another reason we'll want to be a bit more conservative from an exposure level than usual because we don't really know how this thing is going to shake out. That's the data side of things. Qualifying procedures are also pertinent here. They're going to set the field for Sunday effectively based on owner points. The full order should be set sometime by Friday, it seems. And the top 12 cars and owner points will be the top 12 starters for the race. We just don't know the order of those 12. The order of those 12 will be set by a random draw. They'll do the same thing for drivers starting ranked 13th or 24th and owner standing. So we at least have an idea of who will start where now. We just don't know the specific spots yet within that lineup. And starting order will be important. And that's something we should always account for, whether it be DFS or betting. But we don't need to target drivers for DFS in any one specific starting range. There are 293 laps in Sunday's race. That is 29.3 Fando points available for laps led. And this means we should emphasize finding drivers who can lead laps. We do want to try to get those drivers in our lineups. They just don't necessarily have to start up front to do that. If you look back at last year's Dullington race, which is the only one we've had in this current arrow package, there were three drivers who led at least 75 laps. One of them was Kurt Busch. He started fourth. That's kind of what you expect. A guy closer to the front being more likely to lead laps. But the two others, Eric Jones and Kyle Busch, started 15th and 33rd respectively. So as long as your car is fast enough, you can make up ground at this track. And it also helps that because there is some elements of a random draw here, the drivers who start up front aren't necessarily going to be the fastest in the field. That means we have freedom with our studs and our mid-range plays to kind of go where we want from a starting perspective. If you really like a driver, you can use that driver if he is starting first. Obviously, because there are a lot of laps to be led. But you can also still use that driver and count on them to potentially lead laps even if they wind up starting 12th instead. Place differential drivers will also be in play too and we'll touch on a couple of them in the driver breakdown. So basically, let's go with the drivers you like the most. You think will be fastest on Sunday. For Sunday, you don't need to sweat starting order all that much. And it does matter and we want to find place differential drivers, guys who can lead laps. But Darlington is a place where you can pass and the starting order may not be predictive of the finishing order as much as usual. So a couple of advantages are there in giving us freedom to not, you know, force ourselves to roster drivers in any one specific zone. The only difference I would say is with value plays because there I would prefer them to start further back because we get points for place differential and Fandle. So using drivers starting further back gives you more cushion from a finishing perspective. Let's say there is a driver who starts 20th and finishes 12th. That driver will score more Fandle points than a driver who starts 9th and finishes 9th. And that's assuming that they don't lead in the laps, finish on the same lap and stuff like that. So for value plays, I do want them to start a bit further back because it gives me more wiggle room in case they don't get a top 10 finish. There are two exceptions to this trying to find a value place starting further back who I'm okay with. We'll touch on them in the driver breakdown. But for the most part, I want most of my value plays to be in position to pick up some place differential points for me. So recapping strategy here for Dollington. I would lean on current form and what we saw those first four races and at the end of 2019 at similar size tracks, I would spread out my exposure a bit more. You still want to have a tight core, you know, keep things at least semi tight, but maybe loosen up a little bit just to account for the randomness we should expect to see on Sunday. I would emphasize laps led because that's certainly important. There are a lot of laps to be led, but don't force yourself to roster drivers who are starting at the front in order to get those laps led. As we saw last year, you can lead laps and further back and that gives us some freedom when it comes to where we find those laps led. Finally, look for value plays further back if they are there. Got a few options close to the front as exceptions, but for the most part, we want our value plays to have a little bit more cushion may finishing perspective and there are some who can give us that for this weekend. That breaks down the track breakdown. Let's move here to the tier by tier driver breakdown starting with the elites on fan dual that is Kevin Harvick at $14,500 through Brad keselowski at $12,000 and all five drivers in this tier will start within the top 12 spots. So it's kind of pick your poison. Which driver do you like most? And to me in this upper tier, it comes down to Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano. Both those drivers have a blend of track history and current form. Harvick does rank first to my model and he is tied with Kyle Busch for the shortest betting odds of the race. Those are both good things. He has had a top 10 average running position in seven straight Darlington races. He has six top five finishes in that time. He also had a good number of laps in the first four races this year. Harvick had some troubles at times leading laps last year. Wasn't an issue to the first four races and I think that's encouraging. He also had a third place average running position in Las Vegas but Logano won that race. It is one of two wins for him so far this year and the other was in Phoenix and he doesn't have a bad track record of Darlington either. He was second in 2018. He has three top fives the past five races in Darlington so the current form is there. He's been good enough at Darlington for us not to view him as a negative there. To me, I would say that Harvick and Logano are neck and neck for my favorite driver in this race. But Harvick costs you $2,300 more than Logano. So once we account for salary, Joey Logano is my favorite driver in the upper tier on FanDuel for this week. He's plus $750 to win. I actually like him at that number as well. So Joey Logano to me, the number one guy in this race. I do think that Brad Keselowski, Logano's teammate at Penske is a light version of those two. He's $12,000 so both the Penske drivers and Harvick are intriguing to me. In this upper tier we also have Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. They're a tough pair to read because Joe Gibbs Racing really struggled the first four races even though Hamlin won at Daytona. But they've had two months to tweak since then. I think that if any team benefited from a long way off it may have been JGR. It also does help this races in Darlington. And if Joe Gibbs Racing is going to bounce back anywhere it's going to be here. Joe Gibbs Racing or affiliated cars have won five of the past seven races in Darlington. I'm going to have those two guys ranked below Logano and Harvick because I saw them do well early and they've done well enough here. So I'm going to pick those guys first but it's really hard not to buy into Joe Gibbs Racing. So if I'm ranking out this tier, Logano won, Harvick 2. I'd probably go Bush 3, Hamlin 4, Keselowski 5 as far as the way I'm viewing them for this weekend. Let's move to the second tier on Fandall that is Chase Elliott at $11,700 through Jimmy Johnson at $10,000. And I mentioned that I'm willing to buy in to Kyle Bush and Denny Hamlin on the rebound. But I think that if you want to buy low on Joe Gibbs Racing Martin Truex Jr. is pretty easily the best way to do so. Now the thing that's different with Truex from Bush and Hamlin is that he will start outside the top 12 because he is outside the top 12 knowner points. So Truex will start somewhere between 13th and 24th. So that's bad for him from a betting perspective. But it's good for DFS because you're going to get some place differential juice with Truex that safeguards you in case the JGR cars continue to struggle here in Darlington. But he was also I think the best Joe Gibbs Racing car early on. He just didn't get the finishes to show for it. His average running positions, the first three non Daytona races were eighth, ninth and 11th. He just had really bad luck that forced him to finish poorly which is why he's outside the top 12 in owner points. Truex is a good driver in Darlington. He won here in 2016. He led a bunch of laps in 2017. So if we're looking at this thing straight up and not accounting for starting position or salary, Truex actually ranks fourth in my model behind Harvick, Bush and Lagana. I think he is a high floor due to the place differential upside and a high ceiling way to buy into Joe Gibbs Racing off their early struggle. So yeah, I don't mind Bush and Hamlin. But I think if I'm trying to buy low on JGR, Martin Truex Jr. is the best route at 11-5 on Fandall. The rest of this tier is basically the Hendrick cars and Ryan Blaney. Note the Hendrick drivers. I drank Chase Elliott at the top. He had really good speed early on. He has won three stages already so far this year. Nobody else has won more than one and Elliott finished fifth at Darlington in 2018. I'd put Bowman ahead of Johnson just because Bowman was so fast in Vegas and Fontana. Fontana was another high tire wear track and Bowman just ripped up the field there. So I think that Bowman is up there with Chase Elliott ahead at Jimmy Johnson. Ryan Blaney kind of similar to the JGR cars where he's tough to decipher, but it's just flipped from what we were talking about before with Truex, Bush and Hamlin. The current form for Blaney is elite. He had a top four average running position in both Vegas and Fontana, the two most similar tracks to Darlington we've had so far this year. So Blaney could have conceivably won all three of the first three races. Based on that, he is a threat to win here and I think his betting odds may be a little bit too long at 22-1. The problem is that he's pretty bad in Darlington. He has never finished better than 13th. His best average running position is 14th. He did lead 50 laps and finished third here in the XFINITY series last year, but that's really it after looking for good track history. Again, though we're dealing with small samples when it comes to track history and Blaney was so good early on. So I think that when I'm looking at tiers within this one tier itself, I'm going to put Blaney in the same blob as Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. They have great form and the track history does not bump them up. So I think that I'm going to put those three in the same tier. I'm going to rank them within that tier, Elliott 1, Bowman 2, Blaney 3, and then Jimmy Johnson 4, but Truex is ahead of all those guys and my clear favorite within this second tier. Moving to the mid-range on Fandall, that is Eric Jones at $9800 through Eric Almerola at $8000. This is where we can find some really good potential place differential guys and I think it's a good tier overall. So I'm trying to potentially be a bit more balanced in order to get more drivers who are within this tier. There are four guys on this list, Jones, Kurt Busch, William Byron and Clint Boyer who will all start in the 13-24 range. Eric Almerola is the one guy at the front and I do think he is an option, but he's not my favorite among cheaper plays starting near the front. So we'll talk more about that in a second, but for now let's rank that middle range. Eric Jones won at Darlington last year. That's obviously awesome. He has a top nine average running position in all three races. He has done it Darlington, but he was among the JGR drivers who struggled early on. So there is some risk there with Eric Jones given the slow start to the season. Kurt Busch also has elite track history similar to Eric Jones and he was running better before that layoff. Kurt Busch had a top six finish in Fontana and Phoenix. He had a top nine average running position in three straight Darlington races and he's actually ranked sixth in my model. I think that's a little high. I would not put him that high personally but it does show how well Kurt Busch grades out based on the track history and being at least decent in those opening four races. Jones is seventh in my model but the form worries me there too. So both Kurt Busch and Eric Jones grading out well in my model some reason to be a bit more skeptical of them but I do like them at their salaries for DFS. William Byron is 9,000. He is the only Hendrick driver starting outside the top 12 but he had an eighth place average running position in Las Vegas. He also had a tenth place average running position in Darlington last year. That's really good and we know the speed is there. Boyer also ran well in Darlington last year. He just wasn't as good early in the season as these other guys. So to me I think anybody in this tier is fully viable but if I'm ranking them I'm going to put Kurt Busch at the top. He's a veteran at a veteran track where there's a lot of tire wear a lot of slick stuff going on. So Kurt Busch number one for me. I'm going to put Byron second and Jones third. Then there's a drop off to Boyer and fourth and now I'm a roll of fifth. So to me it's Busch Byron Jones at the top end of this middle tier on Fandle but overall I really do like this tier and want to be in here pretty regularly and potentially shape my roster construction around trying to get guys in this range. The value tier on Fandle is Matt DiBenedetto at $7800 through Tyler Radick at $6600 and DiBenedetto is starting near the front of the pack which means I would not go there in cash games because there there's a lot of risk but I am interested for tournaments. DiBenedetto finished eighth in Darlington last year despite being in really bad equipment he had a 14th place average running position he's had speed so far this year including a second place finish in Las Vegas so this car is good as DiBenedetto showed there Paul Menard who was in this car last year finished ninth in Darlington one spot behind DiBenedetto so among the cheaper drivers starting up front DiBenedetto is my favorite I'd mention that I like him more for betting than for DFS because his odds are pretty long and he will start up front but I think that he is in play for DFS too just make sure you are accounting for the fact that it is a risky move to use DiBenedetto I just happen to think he's worth that taking that risk every now and then among those starting the middle of the pack I do dig both of the Roush Fenway Racing drivers those are Chris Buscher and Ryan Newman Buscher is kind of like DiBenedetto in that he ran well at Darlington even before he was in decent equipment which he is in right now Buscher had a top 14 average running position and a top 13 finish each of the last two years in Darlington now Buscher hasn't really had a ton of speed so far this year but he has managed to finish well and that's valuable Newman is in his first race back after that scary scary wreck in Daytona which is honestly incredible that he is back already but he is back and that's good there could be some rust though because he hasn't raced since Daytona he had a very scary injury there so there is risk there but Newman is good in Darlington he had an 11th place average running position in both 2017 and 2018 I'd rank Buscher higher because he's not coming off as long of a layoff but I'd consider both these guys so I think both the Roush Fenway drivers are at least intriguing in this middle range I also want to quickly mention Tyler Redick at $6,600 because he will start outside the top 24 but he's been really fast to open the season he had a 14th place average running position in both Fontana and Phoenix he was also running really well in Las Vegas before he wrecked late in that one Redick finished third and second here in the past two Xfinity Series races now moving into cup and I think that Redick especially if he draws really poorly would be an awesome awesome value play at $6,600 talented guy coming up from the Xfinity Series decent equipment we'll start in the back that's kind of all you want so Tyler Redick I think one of the better value plays on this slate and he's not the only RCR driver that we like speaking of which let's move to the punty tier which is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at $6,400 on down and in this tier is Tyler Redick's teammate Austin Dillon I think that Dillon is lined up like Redick to be one of the best value plays on this slate the reason is that Dillon is only $6,200 and he's starting here between 13th and 24th but he's been good in Darlington he finished fourth in 2017 he was 10th last year and he had a 10th place average running position in 2017 as well so not a fluke he finished there he was also really good in Las Vegas 13th place average running position there he finished fourth so that's all really good and that's why I'm intrigued by Austin Dillon I would be a little bit turned off if Dillon were to draw right at the front of this range and start about 13th but I'm still gonna have quite a bit of him at $6,200 just because the finishing upside is is so good for someone who is this cheap so Tyler Redick and Austin Dillon two elite level value plays especially if we can get them at the bottom end of their starting tiers there are a couple of drivers in this punting tier ranked outside the top 24 who I would consider one of them is Christopher Bell at $6,000 he's had a really bad start to the year but he's driving the car that Dibin Adedo took to an 8th place finish last year and we know that Bell has talent just haven't seen it quite translate yet so between the rookie drivers I would rank Tyler Redick ahead of Christopher Bell even though Bell is $600 cheaper I like Ty Dillon Austin's brother at $5,000 Ty finished 13th here back in 2017 he had a 20th place average running position in Las Vegas that's not that bad so Ty Dillon at $5,000 intriguing I also mentioned Ryan Priest because Priest was not as good in Las Vegas as Dillon was but Chris Buscher who was driving this car last year Priest switched teams the same team Buscher finished well for this team last year Priest finished 22nd but that was his first time at the track at any level since 2016 so you would expect some drawing pains and he now may be more familiar with the track between those guys of Austin Dillon Christopher Bell Ty Dillon and Ryan Priest we should have enough value to pepper that middle tier middle tier starting in the middle of the pack that 9,000, 8,000 range that I really liked I think these guys give you the ability to get into that tier more often so I'm very willing to go with these drivers especially if a guy like Priest starts super far back or if Redick starts super far back we're gonna have flexibility and I want to use that flexibility to get into that middle tier as often as possible that does wrap up the tier by tier breakdown for today so let's finish here with the win picks for the first time in two months it feels nice to pick some winners here once they get into the podcast if you are a new listener the way this works is I pick one driver to win who has a salary of at least $10,000 on Fandle and one driver who is below that and we're gonna go with a couple of veterans for this weekend the first one is Martin Truex Jr. because I believe in the bounce back for Joe Gibbs Racing and I think that it kind of goes back to what we discussed before you can still do well in Darlington even if you start a bit further back so I'd expect Truex to be a great place differential guy but I also think that a win is within his range of outcome so I'm gonna pick Truex as my winner at the top end below $10,000 we're gonna go just a bit below with Kurt Busch $9,400 really good track record in Darlington he was pretty solid over the opening four races especially the final two races and we know he can do well on tracks that have a heavy tire wear so Martin Truex Jr. and Kurt Busch the two win picks for this weekend as mentioned we are back once again tomorrow talking some UFC with Austin Swain to get you set for Saturday's card so make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed to get that and our upcoming NASCAR podcast Tuesday morning is when we'll be recording the podcast for the Darlington 500K which is coming up on Wednesday there's an Xfinity series race on Tuesday to don't believe any DFS on FanDuel for that but potentially some betting which you can check out there for sure if you have any questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the FanDuel podcast network at FanDuel Podcast big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today and chopping up some clips for the FanDuel Twitter account thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in I hope you are healthy hope you've had you know as good of a quarantine as you can have and hopefully things have gone well for you and your family we get to watch some live sports again and it's been a really rough couple of months but it's nice to get at least some semblance of normalcy once again this weekend which we will get at Darlington via the NASCAR Cup series so good thoughts going out to all of you good luck with your DFS lineups and your bets this weekend we'll talk to you all again on Tuesday this has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire