 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Four more games lined up tonight across the sweet 16 in the men's college basketball tournament a couple of games set up for the elite eight as well We're gonna break down those today by talking to Riley Thomas of Fandall research getting his thoughts on Friday night's games and a first look at the couple of games on Saturday Then later on I'll dive into NASCAR enrichment for Sunday in a Sunday night race on Easter Sunday for NASCAR as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here is mentioned by Riley Thomas check him out on Twitter at underscore Riley eight He is a writer for us at Fandall research Riley. Happy Friday to you. How you doing today? I'm doing great. How about you? I'm doing great Would have been better if some games had broke a different way for me last night as far as like bracket stuff goes But fun games outside of the Yukon games, so I'm not gonna complain too much about that Yeah, at least your brackets still alive mind's done. It was alive until Arizona decided to go full Arizona. That was Like I think I deserve that though. Like that's that's on me, right? Like that's my own fall bird for trusting a team that can do some, you know dumb stuff occasionally Yeah, I got burned by them. I think it was last year and never again. I'm done with them I understand that that's me next year So I'll consult you about like how to cope with that next year before I fill in my brackets So I know in advance what to do with that We're gonna do the Riley's break down the four games for tonight and they look all pretty fun Honestly on paper, so break down those and then we'll look ahead tomorrow Illinois Yukon and Clemson, Alabama Get Riley's first look at those games and see where is he's valued Fandall research But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We were here every weekday Monday through Friday Breaking down college basketball talking NFL talking NFL draft coming up They Kentucky Derby just around the corner and of course plenty of other sports as well Get that as it is posted by subscribing to Covering the spread wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify you can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and over on Fandall TV plus Now Riley, let's dig into the first two games of the night That is NC State taking on Marquette where Marquette is a six and a half point favorite and then Gonzaga Taking on Purdue that would be a fun one too where Purdue is a five and a half point favorite beginning with those two games Riley where you seen value for tonight a Fandall sportsbook Yeah, so actually really like a line for each of these games So starting with NC State against Marquette and really a kind of I guess boring tournament I was saying earlier not as many Cinderella's this time around if there's a Cinderella's NC State now what I label them as that I don't know because you know, it's NC State's an ACC team But if any game is going to get ugly tonight, I think it'd be this one I really love Marquette to cover the spread six and a half here I'm just really worried about NC State's guards for this one Of course their front court has been excellent with DJ Burns That is really become America's sweetheart with some old school ball and just the way he plays it's so different And then Muhammad Yara has been extremely underrated He's putting up over 13 rebounds a game over the last six games. I mean, that's just ridiculous but Their guards just have not been that great for NC State DJ Horn led them and scoring in the regular season He has not been good in the tournament so far. He's been inefficient He's shooting under 40% of his last two games and then Marquette has a championship level backcourt Cam Jones and Tyler Colick have just been so good. Cam Jones has made Nine of 23s in the tournament. So shooting over almost 50% Colick is averaging over 19 points and 11 assists So I am just at this point when you get into the later stages I just feel like guard plays so so so important And I think Marquette can really just run them off the court with their guard play And then they also have a great front court player and oh so a dig of Darrow, which is probably their best defender. He can He's a great passer So and I feel like DJ Burns is gonna be tasked with him and he could get really really tired on a defensive end because Marquette's big man has the ability to step out and face you up and pass and I could see that wearing out burn So I'm really on Marquette to cover tonight Now you're talking about Colick and I know there were concerns about him coming into the tournament But he has alleviated those concerns by playing almost every minute across the first two games And I feel like that probably just kind of changes the outlook for Marquette pretty drastically, right? Oh, yeah, I think, you know, we heard it a lot during the conference tournament week about how important he was And yeah, really, I don't think it's too surprising because just various metrics throughout season He's been one of the most valuable players all year, but I mean, he's just been yeah His playmaking especially has been just insane. They keep getting guard play like this Can anyone beat Yukon? Probably not but Marquette is playing like they have a chance to win at all if their guards keep playing like this All right, so Riley likes Marquette minus six and a half that is minus 112 right now Fandall sportsbook other game mentioned is Gonzaga versus Purdue Purdue a five and a half point favorite What are you seeing in this one Riley? So I have been I guess one of the only things when we thought out the bracket that looks kind of smart still Is I had Gonzaga lead eight. I can't come off it at this point So I guess my big risk tonight is going to be Gonzaga money line You know Purdue's obviously been scary They're winning. I think their their margin right now is 33 and a half points through two games But you know Gonzaga has been great too. They've won their games by an average margin of 21 points Just anywhere you look these have been two of the better teams in the tournament Uh Bart Torvik their efficiency rating is just for this tournament They have Gonzaga as the fifth best team Purdue was the sixth best team. So You know, this is about as good as it gets Something else I really like for this game too is the over for Gonzaga's uh team point total Which is a 74 and a half really like that because they've been averaging over 85 points per game They've been shooting over uh 55 percent. They're shooting 50 percent from three so This is interesting because I know Purdue has Zach eating the paint But I like Gonzaga's chances around the rim tonight. Um Both teams are top 10 in near proximity shooting percentage per hazel metrics Which is just you know layups dunk stuff like that But the difference here Is Purdue is in the bottom 10 percent defensively an opponent close to percentage according to Bart Torvik They're also bottom 20 percent in the nation in two-point shots allowed per game And Gonzaga also really likes to attack the rim They have a great uh front court with grand ek and torn watson They even have some depth with ben greg and braden huff So I think they have some bodies that could throw out edy and edy is going to get his no matter what But overall I just think Gonzaga is going to get their looks and if they if they can limit Purdue's supporting cast around the rim. I really like their chances. Their offense is red hot So I just I'm not coming off Gonzaga at this point All right I love it the team mentioned the Gonzaga point total over 75 and a half that is minus 104 and the Gonzaga money line Plus 188 right now any consideration for you for taking the plus five and a half to give yourself more flexibility? Or do you feel a strong enough for the conviction that this is Gonzaga's game To go for the higher upside playing at the money line I think it's worth taking the plus five and a half to um, I do feel very safe in saying this It's going to be a close game down to the wire. Um, just me, you know being bold and yeah really liking brad Gonzaga throughout the entire bracket process. I just I have to take the money line. You know, it's only right I love it. Okay. So Gonzaga money line plus 20 right now at vandals sportsbook Riley liking that one the night cap is duke taking on houston houston a four and a half point favorite there We've also got kraton taking on to tennessee that one should be a banger Tennessee a two and a half point favorite for that one What across these two games to you riley? So for these two games, I am a lot different than the other two I'm really not sure how they're going to pan out I'm nervous about taking any side for the spreads because I can just I can see it going either way for both of these games. So I'm looking at player props for these ones uh, so for duke against houston uh, of course houston's had one of if not the best defense all season, um And for them, they just really like to pack the paint guard the rim They're top five and pretty much any two-point defensive stat you're going to look at But with that said there is an opportunity to shoot threes here So I really like duke's jerry mccain to make three three pointers I know that's pretty bold, but he comes off a game where he Just made eight of 11 three point attempts. He dropped 30 points I mean, he's a sharpshooter. He takes over 55 of the shots from three Um houston's opponents also take over 40 of the shots from three mccain's made multiple three point uh, three pointers and four of his last five games So I think the opportunity is here for mccain to just Really just throw it up from deep and make a few shots tonight That player prop for mccain uh, three plus made three is a fandal sportsbook for the duke houston game Plus one a way to get three plus made threes for this one You mentioned there's a player prop you like for cretin versus tennessee as well What stands out to you there? So I am sticking with the uh, three ball tonight. I also like uh, baler shireman to make four threes So i'm getting even more bold here But the uh, the volume is here. I mean this this guy takes um Over 59 of the shots from three point land Creighton as a team they take over 48 of their shots from three which entering the tournament That was the second highest mark behind by you Um, so they're facing tennessee, of course another great defense They like to make it kind of ugly and physical But it's uh similar to what houston does they want to really pack the paint to fend the rim If you want to shoot threes go for it, um opponents are taking over 40 of their shots from three once again for uh, tennessee So shireman throws up a lot of threes and I think if creighton is going to Win this game. I think their path is just making the three ball again. I mean they made 15 three pointers against organ in the last game So we know they're not scared to shoot it, especially shireman and um something that's interesting We hear how great of a score adult connect is for tennessee, which he is I cannot wait to see shireman against connect, but his defense isn't uh, that good. Um, so tennessee has a lot of great defenders, but if there was two defenders to pick on it's going to be connect and Josiah, jordan james in the front court, which are both forwards. Both of them could see shireman So he could actually get some decent match-ups too. Um, they both have the lowest, uh, defensive Beijing performance rating on the team um, that is Josiah jordan james and don't connect and that's a stat per uh, evin maya great site with some player ratings and stuff like that, but um So I think he could actually get some good one-on-one match-ups as well and get some good looks from three tonight I love the boldness riley across the board for tonight Like an shireman plus 154 to make four plus threes for the krayton versus tennessee game That should be a delight to watch for sure and as mentioned, uh, the other one that Uh, other player prop and jeremy cain three plus threes at plus one away Now we do know the match-ups for saturday's games as well. These markets have not been up super long So probably having had a ton of time to dig in riley, but I did want to ask you your first look Illinois versus uconn uconn eight and a half point favorite and then Clemson taking on alabama Where bamma is a three and a half point favorite anything stand out to you at first glance for these two games riley Yeah, so kind of as I mentioned earlier connecticut is just They're they're terrifying right now. They can beat you anyway. They're they're smashing everybody. Um, they've been so good so I'm not really looking at anything for that game Really kind of worried for illinois too because as soon as taren shenan gets in foul trouble last night He has to exit the game their offense really kind of disappeared And meanwhile uconn is so balanced and can do everything so not looking at that game, but for clemson alabama I love the clemson money line. Um I think these are obviously if there was gonna be a surprise story at the stage in the tournament of these two teams Meeting I don't think too many people had them this far and I'm Really surprised by alabama as well because they have a top 10 offense before the tournament and they had a top Uh, or they were outside the top 100 in defense at kenpon and typically that's a recipe for disaster Baylor and kentucky were two teams that fit those that metric prior to the tournament. Obviously we saw both of them fail So at this point I mentioned guard play earlier You also have to be able to play defense and alabama does not really play defense. Meanwhile, clemson has been guarding at a really high level Um, that's a huge reason they were able to take out arizona Is is their defense and uh going back to evan maya We've seen a stat where clemson is really good against teams who push the pace and play fast Um, which alab Arizona was at alabama plays just as fast as arizona They score a lot So clemson has a history this season of really frustrating these teams that want to get out and run and score Also, uh, clemson's front court with pj hall and ean, uh, chefflyn They've been excellent and for alabama their defensive front court isn't very good We saw some good stops from grant nelson in that sweet 16 game against north carolina, but overall in the season He has not had great, um efficiency marks on a defensive end so, um I also by the way, I love that pj hall for clemson's getting his flowers He's been a great player for the last couple years. So it's been awesome to see him get those flowers, but um I just really like their matchup in the front court for this one I think they could get a lot of easy looks around the rim also just their ability to slow some of these fast-paced teams down Um, so i'm loving clemson for this game. I think they got it Uh, I love that both you and aiden codder who had on yesterday's show become believers in clemson He liked them plus seven and a half last night. So hey, they've converted all of us here fan dual research And why not run it back one more time clinton money line plus 132 where riley is looking across these saturday games initially That is riley thomas. Make sure you check him out on twitter at underscore riley aid find his work at fan dual research Riley have a fantastic weekend. Thank you so much for the time. That's always enjoy the basketball We'll talk to you once again soon. You as well. Thank you for having me on Alrighty again. Thank you to riley and thank you to aiden yesterday too for swinging by Talking some men's college basketball get them back here on the show before the end of the year two And talk about hopefully the national tournament the national championship Which is not too far around the corner We're going to get some NASCAR But I like the Richmond on sunday in just one second But first if your bracket is busted like mine now is say goodbye because fan dual lets you bet on every game Of the tournament whether you're betting on a big upset or a one seat It's time to go dancing on america's number one sports book right now new customers Get 200 dollars in bonus bets If your first five dollar bet wins that's 200 bucks to use on point spreads money lines You can even pick who's gonna win it all just visit fan dual dot com and bet on college hoops until they cut down the nets Must be 21 plus in president select states Fan dual is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc First online real mini wager only bonus issued as non withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt $10 first deposit required see terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem. Call 1 800 gambler Or is it fan dual dot com slash rg colorado iowa michigan? New jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois kentucky tennessee virginia and verma north carolina virginia and vermont call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 When iris zona 188 789 7777 Over the ccpg.org slash chan connecticut 1 809 within indiana 1 805 22 4700 visit chaos gambling health dot com in kansas 1 877 770 stop in louisiana Visit md gambling health at organ maryland 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia 105 22 4700 wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or calling it a 32 750 for 247 support in massachusetts or call 1 877 hoping y or text hoping y in new york Let's take a look now at some nascar in richmond for this weekend. It's a sunday night race for easter sunday for the nascar cup series and Not seeing a whole lot. I like as far as outrides to this weekend a fan dual sportsbook Most of the guys i thought i'd be on have relatively short odds So i'm staying away from there personally until post qualifying We do send to see tend to see some value there because qualify not super predictive Of the finishing order richmond given how important tire fall off is I do like a couple of top 10 bets though and they're within the same team Those two bets are chase briscoe top 10 at plus 320 and ryan priest at plus 320 a couple of steward haas racing drivers I think they're a bit undervalued for this weekend and briscoe's a guy tend to like quite a bit on short flat tracks Which is what richmond is he won phoenix a couple years ago He was ninth in the first phoenix race this year a couple weeks ago the same tire combination This week as they had there and he had a 13th place average running position in that race Now richmond is not the best track for briscoe of this track type But he's also not bad there He's at a top 17 average running position in all four races here during the next gen era He's finished 12th or better in three of those four races So my model has briscoe at 27 percent to finish inside the top 10 is implied odds at plus 320 or 24 percent. So I'm very okay taking briscoe A bit less value on priests. I got on a 24.5 percent again the implied odds are 23.8 percent. So it's slim I got pushed over the top though because of how good priest here Was here last year During the spring race He had an eighth place average running position and he finished fifth or that might have been actually the fall race But either way, I had a really good race here richman and that was his first career top five finish at a non Drafting track ever for him in his career And he did this with other short flat tracks too because he could have won martinsville I had a penalty that killed him He had a 15th place average running position in the other richman race as well in martinsville is not the same as richman but like It is helpful to see guys who can run well on the generic track type of short flat and that's kind of priest's bread and butter He was all right in phoenix earlier this year 18th place average running position there But I do think that the increased tire fall off should help him at richman compared to what we see in phoenix I've been on priest a good number of times is here and it has not worked out But given his strong run here last year, I will buy in the model once again I will say though that if you're not as sold on priest I gave a really strong consideration to know a gregson his team made a plus 340 I don't show value there by my model, but i'm really really close So if you wanted to go priest instead of gregson, I think that'd be totally fair I think briscoe is kind of the The one I feel is is more obvious between this group So i'm willing to go briscoe for sure, but if you can't quite get sold on priest I think that gregson's a good alternative So the ones i'm going with personally briscoe top 10 plus 320 and priest top 10 plus 320 as well But would consider gregson and plus 340 I just think steward haas racing in general a bit under value based on the strength they've shown Through the first couple of races so far this year Again, well the the nascar betting guide up on fandal research this weekend So we'll update that after practice and qualifying to see if any more value pops up But for right now sticking with just those two top 10 bets with briscoe and priest That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread big Thank you once again to riley thomas for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on the men's college basketball Sweet 16 for tonight and the first look at the elite eight four tomorrow tomorrow Follow riley on twitter at underscore riley eight. I am on twitter at jim saunas You can find fandal research on twitter at fandal research. Have a fantastic weekend everybody Enjoy the basketball. Enjoy the racing. Enjoy the baseball as well. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fandal podcast network