 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe, currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's fundamental and technical Forex and gold supply and demand analysis if you're newer one welcome to you And if you're returning unequally one welcome to you and if you want to support the channel and get the quality content out there And help support it then please don't forget to like subscribe and share with your fellow trading colleagues So trade 180 process Is really to apply fundamental Analysis to establish our directional bias and then apply technical analysis supply and demand strategies to time our trade entries risk management And established profit targets, so we use the best of both worlds to take the best trades, so let's get into the week ahead in the calendar and and Looking at trading economics the week ahead saying it was going to be a busy week With the US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and jobs report taking center stage Also attention will be given to corporate results of the dismal earnings from Amazon not really too concerned about that elsewhere The Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australia will be deciding on interest rates and I'll guess I'll go into some of the Negrity I guess So in the US to Fed is expected to deliver a half-point rate hike on Wednesday Which would be the first such move since 2000 the year 2000 22 years ago and to work confirm plans to begin shrinking its nine trillion asset portfolio by 95 billion a month in June investors will watch the clues on the rate hike trajectory And that's really important to curb price pressures that are Four decade high meanwhile pressures sorry markets see non-farm payrolls increasing by 380,000 the least in a year But still pointing to strong hiring momentum while unemployment rate is seen falling to 3.5 percent matching February's 2020 Pre-pandemic rate, so there's that going on elsewhere in America key data to follow include Canada employment figures trade balance And then we've got Mexico Brazil Central Bank of Brazil not too concerned about that in the United Kingdom The Bank of England is expected to high crates for the fourth straight meeting by 25 basis points to 1% as inflation hit a 30-year hire although some officials are concerned about the growth outlook and that's very very important as cost of living pressures Mount also important data Following include Bank of England's monetary indicators, so let's see elsewhere in Europe Retail trade in the Euro area is forecast to be unchanged for a month earlier in March But Germany sales are set to increase for the second month while industrial production is expected to fall for the first time in Six months as factory orders continue to drop and that's obviously important for the the growth of the economy, right? So the unemployment rate probably hit a fresh record low on the blocks economy while Germany while in Germany It was steady at pre-pandemic lows So they've got some positive data a little bit positive data out of out of Europe in Germany Germany being Europe's powerhouse But other data to follow include Eurozone business climate producer prices And then you've got the central bank in Norway and the Czech Investors also followed the OPEC meeting on Thursday So they are Expected to stick to planned output increase. Okay, so that should potentially support commodity prices even though EU moves closer joining the US and the UK and imposing a ban on Russia crude imports right in Australia this is obviously going to be important as well the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely increase borrowing costs by 25 basis points of high interest rates After first quarter inflation rate hit a two decade high of five point one and the labor market remained historically tight So folk focus on sorry will also be given to the RBA's forward guidance, which is seen Being brought forward so that the benchmark interest rate reaches one point two five percent at the end of 2022 So pretty much all central banks at the moment or the major central banks probably apart from the Bank of Japan And the Bank of the Swiss National Bank are our hiking rates at the moment. So Yeah, we've got some or looking to hike rates at some point. So Yeah, some some positivity and really how you kind of trade this is is by understanding who's hiking more and first Versus who is lagging behind. So at the moment for me, the Australian dollar is is a buy The US dollar is still a buy even though, you know, we're waiting for pullbacks on some of the pairs Canadian dollar for example as a buy New Zealand dollar is a buy and the rest are pretty much Cells the pound is a bit of a unique one But we'll get into that as we get into the charts So let's get into the charts and starting off as we always do on the dollar index Now on the dollar index, this is some of last week's analysis looking for really a pullback on this On the on the dollar index as far as it being a Measure of our dollar strength. So Looking to buy the dollar you were really kind of looking for, you know, some sort of pullback But prices just kept going higher, right? So not say that we were gonna buy the any the dollar index Because we would really buy the dollar yen dollar Swiss for example, but But yeah, prices just kept going higher and this is what happens when you have I guess strong monetary policy when the dollar is leading the pack But we did get some interesting news last week and that was that There was US stagflation fears on the rise, right? So there was a surprise GDP contraction at the time At a time when inflation is running at 40 year highs and inevitably lead to more talk of stagflation Particularly with the Fed set to hike interest rates aggressively. However, major trade and Inventory swings must decent underlying domestic demand with cute second quarter activity set to be much better So although the headline number end up being very disappointing very very disappointing The the market is pretty much looking past it there actually because when you think about it, you know The it I think it had probably been I wouldn't say priced in but it had it was definitely a surprise But I think the market were like well, maybe it was just a bit of a blip, right? And again looking at you know, whether whether it's the beginning of a contraction trend, right? and gonna lead to a potential recession or whether it is just Just a Bit of a blip, right? So, you know GDP falls but derails these are a details offer reasons for Optimism and again the second quarter growth should rebound. So the market is You know factoring and actually a second quarter should just you know This should be basically like a pullback these numbers and the Fed is like a still set to hike by 50 basis points in May So it hasn't derailed the the feds hiking It's still hiking aggressively So, you know, you can see GDP levels versus pre-COVID trend and although this was a bit of a pullback in the future We still have potential growth. So the market has looked past it hence the reason why you're seeing I guess on the On the DX why you're seeing the dollar index, you know Strengthen where a lot traders would have been getting short on that on that news and in the group I did say to the guys that I was looking to just wait and see and in fact, let me see if I can find that conversation Yeah, so here was the 28th Thursday 28th of April and I was talking about talking to some of the guys and here were some of the comments You know about buying gold for example, we're getting the financial advice, but You know when the the stagflation narrative, you know came out. I was saying that you know this Another negative court would obviously put the US in the technical recession Which would then mean all bets of a rate hike out the window, but let's see how the story develops Yeah, so a lot of traders would generally start to jump in on bad news based off of You know just go into Forex factory and say and sell or buy and you know trading 180 We don't trade like that. That's how everyone else trades, right? We don't trade like that and You know we made obviously smart decisions not to just get involved emotionally and looking at the headline figures Because there would have been a lot of traders selling that dollar and as you can see They would have been caught on the wrong side of the market and as I said then it could be a blip a massive one But still temporary, right? So I did you know kind of warn and I was saying to kind of hold fire with with the guys and not to You know get involved in that trade just yet and obviously you could see what ended up happening Technically, you know prices end up going higher obviously And but obviously they stick and still come down and I'm hoping that it does because I'm still a buyer really of the dollar In many ways angled But I really want a deeper pullback on the dollar So let's see what happens. So so yeah, the dollar not not great But let's see what happens, you know with the economy and what the the market is already priced in So I do think that the dollar is definitely due a pullback It is you know very expensive at the moment. So any pullbacks to Any kind of demand zones as confluence on the DXY is you know, what I really want to get involved in so let's see What happens there moving on to the dollar yen? That dolly end just hasn't pulled back has it look at that crazy, but let's see There is a demand zone there put the first demand zone that I probably may look to get involved in Here because in fact the upside from there was around about 431 pips so prices, you know prices pulled back. That's a decent pullback For me to that zone into that 127 round number 128 somewhere around there and see what potentially could happen in that zone Yeah, so I do think that the again the dollar is quite expensive. So if that that zone does fail Then again, I'd have to probably over wait for a demand zone to be produced Or if prices can come down to that one two two one two one area then that would be an absolute You know great buy I think a buy an opportunity on that dollar Dollar yen definitely not buying the the yen although there is risk off Concerns the market seems to be a bit more focused on the fundamentals rather than putting their money into safe haven assets moving on to the Swiss dollar Swiss and Again looking at the dollar Saying I say in this last week that you know why even though you can get Supply zones If you're trading against really the the fundamental analysis then you're pretty gonna get in love getting caught Just going short for no reason or just for a technical reasons is the reason why a lot of traders end up getting you know Losing trades right personally as you can see from last week I was looking for a pullback to try and get long Of course, no one can predict the future We have to wait for you know prices to come down obviously prices went to the upside And we have to just wait for a pullback to get in that a better price, right? So Unfortunately prices haven't come down to getting back involved in this in this trend But so if they do then that for me is gonna be a decent buy if you do want to be a buyer of the Swiss franc for whatever reason but fundamentally I say fundamentally probably more to do if maybe the dollar You know being a bit Expensive and probably some sort of profit-taking then I would personally, you know, I wouldn't rely on a level You know his zone that was Back, you know, 20 years ago, so 20 years ago. Sorry 2020 May 2020 not 20 years ago I wouldn't necessarily rely on any kind of zones that were two years old. I would rather For price to prove that there is supply there and then a pullback into that zone before looking to get Shorts if that was the play of course and but it's not for me. So Moving on to the dollar cat dollar cat is a very interesting one I am Looking potentially a session really delete that I am potentially looking at a trade But it's further up at the highs. It's around here I do think that there is a scope for a potential downside around that area here. So Currently not too interested But if it does come up above that around that 130 cent one, you know $1.30 Area then I probably may look for a short trade in that in that zone To get shortened by the Canadian dollar You do have in fact this was a Was hidden demand right here So there was an opportunity to get involved in that Last week when prices came down into that zone and went to the upside But if we do get again prices come up into this area here Very interested in that You've got two central banks that are looking to high crates Which should lead to what is known as a value auction to be fair Prices even though if you if you zoom out on a daily timeframe chart You can see where prices have been in this What people would describe as a bit of a range But it's actually an auction between the 129 and the 124 So I do think the highs around here are decent for a potential short trade And again the guys in the group probably get a bit more analysis on that was it probably but they definitely will but For YouTube just know that you know this for the meanest decent area to look for short trades and I'll And there are several reasons why which I'm not going to get into in this Video is free video Dollar New Zealand dollar US dollar soap New Zealand dollar did sell off The US dollar generally does typically strengthen in a risk in in risk-off environments or you know in his global turmoil and commodity currencies like the New Zealand dollar won't necessarily stand a chance. So what you've seen is really a strong sell-off and There was no there was just no demand at those areas, right? So zooming out again, I'd probably say For me, there's levels, but nothing really interesting To get to get long on I'd probably wait for proof if I was looking to trade this pair Which I'm not proof of demand and then Pull back into that zone. Whether you want to call it a double bottom I'm not really inclined to call it that there's certain setups that we use in trading 180 technical setups to to determine whether there's a strong demand or strong supply. So Once I see that type of setup or once I did see that type of setup That's where I'll be interested in going long technically, but fundamentally this pair doesn't really interest me But if you are interested in continuing, you know, the short trades here really is where your first opportunity is to get Short and continue buying the dollar if you haven't taken profit already Moving on to the dot pound dollar pound dollar. So the pound I was saying last week you can see the analysis Last week that I was looking for a pullback into that supply zone and for Prices to go to the downside, which they did but they just didn't pull back right to that area. I was looking at that Thinking. Yep. I do want to get involved in that but unfortunately there was none again, so strong trends just really strong trends this year has been a a year for for really volatile price movements if you consider the pound Sorry Consider the pound dollar was moved currencies generally move In a year probably around an average of maybe about seven maybe five to maybe eight percent I think so far we've moved around. Yeah, something like nine percent So that's definitely above the average. So from basically the high of 2022 to the low of 2022 we moved at nine percent, which is again quite a quite a move In in comparison Probably the pound dollar there moved around seven percent from 20 the lows of the highs of 2021 Yeah, about seven about seven eight percent. So we've definitely moved, you know, a Quite a large amount over the over a short space of time and we still got another, you know, six months seven months to go so For me anyways pullbacks Into zones that 130 area is going to be a very nice zone looking at any kind of long trades again I'm not keen on on using 2020 Areas to look for buy trades. I'm not looking to buy this anyway Put his door looking to sell it But again looking at Where we are from a fundamental perspective You've got rates and effects are waking up to a less hawkish Bank of England reality So the markets are expecting too much tightening from the Bank of England and are slowly waking up to the less hawkish reality And I've been saying this for a good maybe month or so that I was looking to short the pound and you can see What's happened with the pounds against various currencies? This means guilt's will struggle to follow treasury and bundles higher and the curve should price out hikes So Sterling has started to react to the weaker consumer demand and barring a very hawkish surprise Risks look skewed to the downside. So again You know, this wasn't hard to see You know again we're using the fundamentals to predict, you know medium to long-term trends And that's what you know, we consistently do it trading 180 and you can see that also as well recession risks sparks UK Market jitters ahead of Bank of England decisions So retail stocks the pound and Sterling junk bonds have all slid money market bets Money markets bet the Bank of England will have to pivot to rate cuts basically meaning That it might not hike as much as they were signalling maybe about a month or two ago Which then causes a revaluation of the pound So the UK markets are sounding the alarm of a potential recession piling pressure on the Bank of England to balance curbing Balance curbing surging inflation what we've protecting growth. So that's what's known again is stagflation So with that being said Any pullbacks for me on this are definitely selling opportunities Moving on to the Euro dollar again. You're a dollar continue to sell off We got in up here and took profit round here and It's looking for maybe a deeper pullback, but it just didn't come so it is what it is again But there's opportunities always opportunities to to buy getting another strong trend to the downside of pullback to that zone for me is definitely a Said that he definitely but it's a me. It's a nice opportunity to get short again continued shorts Although the euro at some point We were debating in the room in the discord group whether the euro or when the euro is going to be a buy and I think there was Obviously a pullback is due at some point, but I do think that I Think that the euro is going to be a buy when we see some economic growth and talking about the euro zone So again also recession fret hangs over Europe's fragile economic growth So it's not looking good in Europe either, right? So growth of zero point two in the percent in the first quarter was less than expected Economy is vulnerable to fall out from the Ukraine war so geographically where they are they're being them They're being really, you know affected by the the Russia Ukraine war So euro zone recovery from the pandemic is already showing signs of flagging even before it meets the economic storm clouds Heading its ways danger of a recession loomed interview this week after Russia halted gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria offering a Fortaste of what the region might have in store, but even without energy rationing such a move might provoke that outlook Looks ominous Underscored by weaker than expected growth reported Friday So economic growth not doing too well And so that's prompting that the ECB rate high possible, but not likely in July Yeah, I'm so European Central Bank rate increase in July is possible, but not likely says Vice President Luis D Gwendoz said so there's you know There's no reason why and an end to net asset purchases shouldn't happen in July Gwendoz told the Spanish newspaper in an interview published on Sunday But rates will rise after that and may happen within months weeks or days July as possible But that's not to say it's likely and this is the read really the reason why so with that being said if you go back to You know the euro I think It's probably a pullback due on a daily of course and but I think that there are some definite opportunities to get short within that zone if not The high probability is going to be up at the highest Aussie dollar Again, there was no demand there, right to commodity currencies weren't on doing great But prices have come down into the other zone here in his one just above it now with the Australian dollar and RBA look into high crates. I think prices have come down to a decent zone to look for potential buys But they're not against the dollar, but technically it's decent You also have You also have supplies and sitting right on top of that demand zone right there So if you do want to continue to get short and sell the the Australian dollar Then that's really the zone then you've got a decent demand zone in fact I'll pull that down to maybe there. Yeah decent demand, but I think they've put it a better area would be down at that 70 cent area 70 cent demand zone Personally, I'm not really interested in this currency pair the Aussie yen Aussie yen came down into this decent zone a Nice pullback entry before potentially moving higher if the Australian Dollar of the RBA start to high crates I think it's probably been priced in for now But any pullbacks into this zone and possibly a potential stop-hunt below there was going to be nice If I support that 85 area, I think that's going to be absolutely lovely to a great zone to buy To buy or just above that that would be as known as a CPR the 86 area For the guys that know what a capture pain relief is so Yeah, I think again the Australian dollars still a buy. It's just where you want to buy And gold gold gold gold so gold again a bit of a mixed bag I do think gold is a buy overall But with the dollar strengthening for now in the next couple of weeks it puts pressure on gold But I do think later on this year with inflation still rising. I do think gold is a is a is a continued buy and There is where is it now? So it's right. Where is it? Where is it? Where is it? Where's it? What about the gold? Did I put that gold? article here is so Bloomberg WGC gold remains resilient amid heightened Uncertainties the gold generally does well in a risk-off environment. So World Gold Council CEO a pack ex-China Andrew Naila says global says global gold demand excluding over the counter OTC in the first quarter rose 34% on year thanks to strong ETF flows. He speaks with Yvonne, etc. So there's you know, there's a definitely interesting buying gold To protect obviously against inflation. So I do think that there was an opportunity Opportunities to buy gold especially as it comes down deeper into these zones for a nice potential upside. So We have that again, I think The if the dollar start does start to weaken and then it you know growth starts does start to you know Stagnate and potentially not grow as much as in the second quarter I think gold is definitely gonna Say definitely, but it's likely to go higher and probably reach the the highs the all-time highs again And even beyond that right because there are forecasts projecting that anyways that brings us to the end of this week's video Again, don't forget to like subscribe support the channel and I hope you have a great trading week. Take care