 just three races left in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season and this one being the final one at a 550 horsepower track, the final two at Martinsville and Phoenix, very different races we have this weekend. But I think that the strategy we had last week for Texas will be very similar to what we have this week in Kansas. So kind of an easy week in terms of how we wanna play things from a DFS perspective. Let's let you know what that strategy is, who fits it best and which drivers to target on FanDuel for this weekend. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDuel podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Here to preview Sunday's Hollywood Casino 400 in Kansas from a DFS perspective. Lock is set for 3 p.m. Eastern on Sunday and we'll be going through a tier by tier breakdown plus a breakdown of how to fill out lineups for this week's race based on the salaries and scoring over at FanDuel.com. Before we dive into that though a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast because NBA and NHL are both back which means Tom Vecchio has you covered each and every weekday here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast be breaking down the main slates for both basketball and hockey. Those go up every morning. The Friday ones already posted right now. You can find those by searching for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. Of course, got our NFL podcast for week number seven already posted as well. UFC coming up later on today. PGA each week, NFL twice a week. So a lot of good things here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well. Hey football fans FanDuel is giving you the chance to bend on week seven of the NFL season by placing a risk-free same game parlay. All you have to do is go to sportsbook.fanDuel.com or download the FanDuel Sportsbook app place a three plus legs same game parlay on any weeks of the NFL game. If your bet loses, get a refund and site credit. Max refund is $10. Bet on week seven of the NFL season with FanDuel by heading over to FanDuel Sportsbook today placing a risk-free NFL same game parlay must be 21 plus and present Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. Refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund $10 restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanDuel.com same game parlay available for multiple sports in all states on mobile and web. Gambling problem call 100 Gamber visit fanDuel.com slash RG Connecticut won't call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it. For confidential help in Michigan 1-800-270-7117 in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-899-7789 in West Virginia 1-800-gamber.net or in Arizona call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-42. Let's get into the track breakdown here for Kansas and it's gonna feel pretty similar to last week despite some key differences. It is a shorter race and that's the main key difference here between the two tracks. The race on Sunday is only 267 laps. That gives us 6.7 fewer fanDuel points for laps led which could lead to a more back centric approach in theory but that's not really the case because it's still 26.7 fanDuel points for laps led which is quite a bit and the fast drivers are out front. So if you want lap leaders you need a front centra approach which is what we had going into last week and that did pay off at this track last year because it was a similar setup there was no qualifying so the eight playoff drivers were out the front of the field. Two of those playoff drivers were in the perfect lineup and both of them started within the top four spots. The first two rows gave you two of the five drivers in the perfect fanDuel lineup. So the two playoff driver approach worked there and that was how we broadly wanted to play things last week. That's the baseline for this week too with a slight caveat and I'm gonna phrase it as two playoff drivers or William Byron being one of those guys in there. Byron is not in the playoffs but he's gonna be fast this week. He ranks fourth in my models projected average running position for this week. He could very well lead laps. He could very well win. So I'm gonna lump Byron in to that dominated group. I want two playoff drivers or Byron in each lineup to soak up that lap slide upside that we do want here in a still relatively long race. And I think in this format that is the correct way to play things. I'm also not expecting to get place differential out of my value plays because if you look at the top 21 drivers in my model only one of them is starting lower than 21st. So like it's basically the starting order is what it is. That is Alex Bowman back in 25th. There are some guys who are viable starting deeper in the pack but the most obvious plays and to me the best plays are all kind of closer to the front. Last week the perfect lineup had nobody starting deeper than 24th. Three drivers started inside the top 12 and I wouldn't be shocked if we get a very similar outlook once again this week. Finishing points matter a lot. And to get them this week you will likely need drivers at the front. So I'm bracing for them in building lineups with value plays like we're gonna be looking in the teens, looking around 12th or so. I think that is a necessary evil for this week. As with last week we've got good data to look at here. There have been eight races at one mile track so far this year. Four of those have had similar banking to Kansas including one race in Kansas itself. Five of them had low tire wear similar to Kansas and that does include last week's race to Texas. So a very similar race recently during the playoffs. So we know who is going to be fast and that should give us more confidence in using driver starting towards the front of the pack. If we know they can get a top 10 because they've proven it across these races then it doesn't matter as much if they're not gonna get us place differential points because the value of those finishing points is so high. So to me it's a pretty straightforward race this week. You want to playoff drivers or Byron per lineup. You wanna emphasize finishing points with the value plays. You want to be comfortable using value plays starting near the front of the pack. Like get bowman for sure but like a lot of your other value plays will not be massive, massive place differential guys starting back in the thirties. To decide which place differential guys you want and which drivers you think can lead laps lean on the one half mile tracks put extra emphasis on the mile and a half tracks that do tire wear. I also do like to look at those with reduced banking. So Homestead, Kansas and Vegas those three to me do stand out quite a bit. So it should be a pretty big blend overall this week. I feel pretty good about the approach and feel pretty good about my tiers for this week. Speaking of those tiers, let's go tier by tier now brace based on the salaries over at vandal.com and break down my favorite drivers for this week. The elite tier on vandal is Kyle Larson at 14.5 through Chase Elliott at 12.5 and Larson has some minor complications this week. He's gonna be fast. We know that for sure. But he's already locked into Phoenix. So his team can afford to have both eyes on Phoenix as opposed to focusing too much on this week. And that's why I'm not quite as high on him this week as I was last week. I will still put him first though because we know he'll be fast. He has led more than 900 more laps than anybody else on mile and a half tracks this year. He has three wins out of eight races, point-paying races. He has won four out of nine if you count the all-star race in Texas. Sunday will also be the anniversary of the death of Rick Hendrick's son Ricky. And Ricky used to drive the five car had a similar pain scheme to Larson's. That is a narrative and I don't like doing things based on narratives but I don't think they're gonna slack off this week. So they might even be able to win even if they do slack off because of how fast this car is. So I'm gonna still put Larson first but like my confidence in him putting him first is just a smidge lower than it was last week due to motivation, the fact that they may be focusing on Phoenix just a smidge lower but do still like him quite a bit for this week and he is number one for me. I'll put Denny Hamlin seconds ahead of Kyle Bush and Chase Elliott. Hamlin seems to excel most at these mile and a half tracks with lower banking. I know Bush won in Kansas earlier on this year but Hamlin won in Las Vegas which was during the playoffs. He led 137 laps there. It seems like all the JGR cars missed the setup last week but long-term I do trust that organization even at these tracks. So to me, this tier is Larson first all by himself then that second tier is the other three guys. Hamlin will be second for me, Kyle Bush third and Chase Elliott will be fourth. The second tier is William Byron at 11.5 through Joey Logano at $9,800. And I've got two guys standing above the rest in this tier and I do like them a lot. Those guys are William Byron and Ryan Blady. Byron, we talked about him before in the strategy discussion. He ranks fourth my models projected at our droney position. His car was at least on par with Larson's last week. Like might've been a tidy bit past faster just couldn't quite make the pass there. The win for Byron this year came in Homestead which has similar banking to Kansas not the same tire fall off but similar banking. So I like Byron a lot. You can get him a 12 to one over at Fan Dual Sportsbook. My betting guy going up right now and it has Byron in there. I think that 12 to one, a good number on him. And I think he has a legit shot to outrun the playoff drivers here. So that's why he is the exception to this week. As far as Blaney, there are two things going for him. The first one is that he's in the playoffs and I do value that quite a bit but he's also tremendous at Kansas specifically. Blaney had three top buys at this track back when he was with the Wood Brothers and they're basically a Penske team but like the team around it, the team around the car is different. So I would still view it as being a tear down. He was awesome with Wood Brothers here. He's had a top eight average running position in eight of the past nine races at this track and that was when he was crazy young. I think he is a legit threat to win similar to Byron. I've just like Byron's speed a bit more recently. So I will put Byron first in this year but I'll put Blaney second. I don't think Blaney will be as popular as Byron this week. So kind of don't mind it as a turn of pivot to go with Blaney here. I'll put Brad Kezalowski third, Martin Truex Jr. fourth and Joey Logano fifth. Logano had more speed than I thought he would in Texas but I'm still a bit wary of him on this track type. Kezalowski I had written off a long time ago because of the team transition. I think he's actually a pretty good bet this week too at 19 to one at Fandall Sportsbook. I'm coming around. I've tried to lower him in my numbers but I can't get low enough to see him not being a value for DFS and for betting. So I do like Byron and Blaney a lot but I'm not opposed to Kezalowski at $10,000. I think that's a little bit too low for how well he is still running despite the transition next year. The mid-range is Kevin Harvick at $9,500 for Matthew Benedetto at $8,000. This year is where we find Bowman. He's the one guy who can get us some place differential. He's starting 25th at $9,000 and we can get to that with Larson pretty easily especially if we have either Byron, Blaney or Kezalowski as our second driver within the lineup. And I'd like to get to Bowman for sure. Bowman nearly got his first career win in Kansas a couple of years ago. He does tend to do better at tracks with heavier tire fall off in Kansas, isn't that but we did see Bowman finish fifth at Charlotte which is a similar track in terms of tire wear. So I'm on Bowman this week. I like him most for cash games. I think that he's a must in cash games but for tournaments, you know, there may be a pivot specifically Tyler Redick. I think that he's a good pivot here for tournaments. He's already 12th, so less place differential upside for Redick but he has been on a rocket ship recently. Redick has had a top 10 average running position and a top 10 finish in five straight races at the mile and a half tracks. He hasn't turned those into top end finishes but if you get a sixth place finish for $9,200 starting in 12th, that'll go a long way. I think having Redick and Bowman paired together is preferred if I can get there because I do like both a lot but you know, you're probably gonna choose one in your Larson lineups and if I had to choose one for tournaments I'd be at least tempted to go Redick. I'm not saying I would but I'd be tempted by Redick there. I think the Bowman is a better cash game play Redick at least on par with him for tournaments. I'm gonna rank this to your Bowman one, Redick two. Kevin Harvick three, Harvick has been fine. He's not the fastest guy but like he's smart and he can make things work either way. So I would put Kevin Harvick third, Christopher Bell four, Kurt Busch five, Matty Bennett six, Austin Dylan seven. I wouldn't cross any guys off in this tier. It's a pretty good tier overall but I would prioritize Bowman, Redick and then Harvick after that. The value tier is Eric Elmerol at $7,700 through Eric Jones at $6,500. My favorite guy in this tier, Bol, straight up and after adjusting for salary and before adjusting for starting spot is Chris Buscher. He is $6,700 and starting 21st. He ranked 17th in my models, projected average running position straight up like that doesn't account for salary, starting spot any of that, he's 17th. He actually was close to a huge race in the first Kansas races here. He tried to use strategy to get, he did use strategy to get the lead at one point when there was a tire in the infield. NASCAR didn't throw a caution though and it kind of hung Buscher out to dry. It's kind of rough hang for them but Buscher did still rebound and he finished eighth which was pretty incredible honestly. He was also eighth at Charlotte, another low tire wear track. So Buscher will be in my cash game lineup. I can tell you that right now and I'll be heavy on him for tournaments too. I think he is a rock star level play for this week. After Buscher, this tier is pretty thin. Thins out pretty fast. Daniel Suarez keeps finishing well but doesn't have the best speed yet. Similar thing for our Jones. If I had to pick two guys down here I like outside of Buscher, I would go with Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain. Briscoe, a lot better speed recently in this package. He had a top 16 average running position in both Vegas and Texas. He also has three straight top 15 finishes on the mile and a half tracks. So warming up to him, I've been impressed with Briscoe's speed recently and I'm okay with him for sure. Chastain is mostly because he's starting deeper in the pack. He's starting back in 24th at $7,500. I haven't liked his speed in this package at all this year. His best run was in Kansas for what that's worth. Worth a 16th place average running position there. 14th place finish, I will use him but again, I'm not super enthusiastic about him. I prefer Buscher potentially prefer Briscoe as well because I think the speed has been better. So I'll go with Buscher one, Briscoe two, Chastain three, Suarez four, Eric Jones five, Eric Amarola six. I might regret putting Briscoe above Chastain. I might switch by Sunday too but like I kind of think that I need to go Briscoe first. We'll see. But just not super enthused about Chastain's speed on these tracks. The punting tier I think is better actually than the value tier outside of Buscher. We've got Bubba Wallace and $6,200 on down. Couple of guys here I think are super usable. One of them is sorry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Apologies. He's starting 28th at $5,800. He predictably keeps crashing but when he finishes, he finishes well. And like the odds that he crashes aren't 100%. So, you know, you account for that for sure but like if he finishes, it'll probably be a pretty good finish. He has four top 13 finishes at the mile and a half tracks this year across eight races which is more than you can expect out of someone at $5,800. So, you know, put a lid on the exposure to safeguard yourself in case he does what he does but I think he's still worth it. I will keep that beating my head against this wall and seeing what happens. I also do not mind Bubba Wallace at $6,200. He's starting 27th. He was in the same crash as Stenhouse last week which is very painful for me because I had both on a good number of lineups but Bubba's had some speed on this track type. So, I will go to him as well. I prefer Stenhouse by a smidge over Wallace. I would also consider Michael McDowell at times at $5,300 but I think it's mainly Stenhouse and Wallace for me. Not a bad tier overall. I do like this tier a decent amount relative to the tier above it. Again, outside of Chris Busher. Let's finish up here with the picks to win for this week. Last week went well. The win picks were Larson and Byron, both those guys ran up front all day, finished one too. So, high standards. I have a hard time pivoting off Larson and it's just picking straight up. So, I'll go Kyle Larson. I know it's boring but like he's at 28% to win my simulations. Who am I to say no? So, Kyle Larson, the win pick above $10,000. Below, I'm gonna go Tyler Redick. I love the speed that he's had. I think that if one guy is gonna like burst up and get a win from down there, I think that Redick is the most likely. He's just been so good on this track type recently. Kansas has some overlap with Homestead based on the banking of those two tracks. So, to me, I think that he does great out pretty well. So, again, the win picks for this week, Larson and Redick above and below $10,000. That is all that we have here for today on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast. As mentioned, make sure you check out all the other good stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, week seven NFL preview, NBA NHL via Tom Vecchio, UFC via Austin Swain, PGA once again next week. Lots of good stuff. Hit subscribe and while you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fanduel Podcast Network at Fanduel Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your DFS lineups or in your pets and we'll talk to you once again next week for Martinsville, the second to last race of the year. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.