 And folks, head on over to the front page of TFNN. We're gonna talk to our man, Teddy Kegstad right now. We always talk to Teddy on Wednesdays at 40 past the hour, but we got a privilege. We're talking to him on Monday this week as well. We'll talk to him on Wednesday as well. We're talking to him, folks, because today is the last day that you can sign up and save 25% for the Tiger Forex Report on the front page of TFNN, folks. You head on over, you click that button. The important part, when you subscribe, folks, just enter code. I'm gonna show you real quick before we talk to Teddy. Enter code Teddy25, right in the promo code slot there. You hit add the code. That's 25% off, folks. It brings you down to 72.75. I believe, check my math, I think that's right. You save 24 bucks and a quarter every month, folks. 25% off, and that stays with you forever. And you still get a 30-day money back guarantee. So if it's not something you're trading with, it's not something you have the time for, you don't like it for any reason. You get a money back guarantee if you cancel. And best case is you stay on and you lock that in forever, folks. You're saving more than $24 every month for the life of your subscription. And Teddy, it's an interesting one. Before we get into the market, though, I gotta know, how is Lollapalooza, man? Oh, it was amazing, man. Metallica was only supposed to play for an hour and a half and they put on a full two-hour show. It was insane. I was so jealous, man. I was emailing Teddy on Friday, folks. He said, my weekend starts in two hours, man. I'm going to Lollapalooza. Said, oh, I gotta get to a live show again soon, man. It's like my favorite thing to do in life. I was jealous. That's great, you had a great time, man. Okay, and we jump right into it, man. So where do you want to kick things off? We got some action in the dollar. We got some action in crude in a big way. What are you looking at on Monday? It's great we talked to you on Monday, man, because we usually talk to you on Wednesday. So maybe you can walk us through how you start on the week and what you're looking at. Well, this is a good Monday to talk about because we had both a weekly close, a monthly close, and a daily close on Friday. Especially remember on Wednesday, anyone that watched when we were talking last week, I mentioned how technically the yen was actually setting up for a sell. Boy, did it really ever sell off. And then you have this whole take as far as the bonds as well. We talked about this head and shoulders pattern on the daily basis that, I mean, with this wishy-washy fed speak that's going on and saying how you have to follow, that they're going to follow the data, well, shouldn't you always be following the data? Like isn't that exactly what your job is? So what does that mean during other periods? You're having periods of introspection or something? I mean, I don't know what that means at all. So the market rates, the fact that it's being pumped up the way it is right now, we have a divergence as far as what's going on fundamentally. You have a fed that says we're still gonna raise rates but watch the data, and but somehow we're getting higher bond pricing. And that's definitely a reflection of what's going on in the dollar. But then you can also see where the extremes are. Like the yen sold off really big over the past few sessions, okay? So did the Swiss. If you notice how the Euro rallied versus the pound, the pound is rallying pretty strong. The Euro has only had a 50% correction from its last swing high to the past swing low of a couple of sessions back, okay? So that's showing how where the strength really is in these other currencies. And I think that as if the dollar still is under pressure, you're gonna see a more accelerated move and say the pound and the yen and the Swiss, but the Euro you're not gonna see as much of that, and the same thing with the Aussie and the New Zealand. So I think it's gonna be interesting to watch the bonds because if this is just a market correction and the dollar and the interest rate sector and even in the crude oil market, we should be coming into a bottoming area or a topping area in the bonds. So if we're gonna push this, we're gonna have one more leg and really hit the extreme or we're talking about a change in trend that could last a couple of months. I mean, if you look at the bonds themselves in the tenure put on a monthly buy signal, so now remember it's a monthly basis. So that doesn't mean you can't have a correction off of that move, but that could also mean that we if that's true, then we're gonna have a higher trending market for bond prices for the next like three to six months. That this doesn't make sense when you have a Fed that's supposed to be leaning on at least a half a point three more times before the year is out. So that's a very big question on what's going on right now. So I think people have to really keep those in their background and what they're trading when it comes to the different currency crosses. Yeah, it's pretty cool. I mean, the move in the note in the bond market, I got the 30 year up here and I'm monthly going back to think or assume it goes back to 96 I think and really the run higher looks like it started in 99, right? We're just literally almost still sitting at that trend line got a little below it, but a bounce as traders doesn't seem too outlandish when basically we were just trading in the 30 year, the numbers in the 30 year just bonkers, man. We're at 191 in March of 2020 when you got that acceleration, even if you just take where we were at the end of 2020 we're about 174, 170, something like that and we're at 144 still. So the moves have just been remarkable where maybe we do get some bounces within a trend but some of these bounces, the trend is just so large that maybe those bounces are a little bit larger than we used to with the trend intact, right? Yeah, crude is moving a lot this morning, man. What's your take on the marketing crude? We're coming down to another critical area, catching a little bit of a bounce in the last few minutes. We just had a 92 handle. Now we got a 94 handle. What's your action on crude? Even this morning down decent. I know it's under pressure. It's right now. I think it's just a little bear trap. I think it's testing support, but it's basing. I still am bullish on crude. I don't see that it's not gonna skip back. I could see crude easily get back above 105 to 110 in a heartbeat. So I'm not comfortable at these levels. I'll tell you what, I'd be very cautious trying to sell the crude oil market right now. In fact, I wouldn't even take a short trade in the market at all unless you're maybe going out. As a technical trader myself, I agree. It's pretty much at a pretty critical area in this area. You can pick 10, 15 areas on this chart basically that you could have bought at this area and it's bounced or held going back to almost the better part of this year. And the bonds in the tenure are influencing crude too. You realize that as interest rates, remember we talked about this months ago about what was helping to drive the crude prices. If the Fed raises rates, the cost of carryover for crude goes up. So right now the market rate, even though the Fed just raised three quarters of a point, the market rate has actually gone down. So that means the price the cost to carry over for, and you gotta realize we're coming in, there's always rollovers in the oil market and the spot prices and stuff like that. So every month that's a big reflection because as that comes off every month, that's gone. Now you have a new interest rate. Well, financing for oil right now is cheaper now than it was two, three months ago. That's a great take then. So that's why I think you're getting this suppression in crude price. It's artificially being suppressed because the cost of carryover is being decreased. So I mean, it's just like the cost of gasoline locally. I mean, if the federal taxes reduced plus also certain state taxes, okay, the price of gas has come down, but that's only because they're not paying the taxes. The price of gas didn't come down, the taxes were removed. So that's where that pricing, and I think I'm looking at in that same perspective. It's a great point. I mean, the cost of capital, right? The interest rate, I mean, we talk about it, my dad always says in the show, it's like, what can you buy, right? And that translates to everything, man. Even companies themselves, Apple's got a four-part bond sale out there today because interest rates are low enough that they can push out that paper, man, and use that capital as opposed to the $180 billion in cash they got on their books. So the Fed, back to the Fed real quick because you made some great points, man, and I completely agree, they should be data dependent. I think what, you know, the market's taking all the optimism there and we got like 20 seconds to, you know what, maybe we can bring you back, all right? Do you have a few minutes? Perfect, let's jump in. Let's jump into the break, man, because I want to get, because we get the jobs number on Friday, we get CPI next week and if it's data dependent, let's have a little conversation about those two numbers. Folks, head on over to the front page while we're on break for three minutes, check out the Tiger 4X report. Teddy's got a new issue out this morning and we'll be right back to finish up the show. Welcome back, folks. And we got markets picking up in August, right where we left off in July, you get the NASDAQ 100, climbing a solid 150 points from the lows we got just in the last half hour. We're above 13,000. You're positive by 32 points right now and the S&P's trying to make it right now, S&P's negative by just seven points after being lower by about 35. So, Teddy, talking about the fundamental news, we get jobs numbers on Friday, we get the CPI next week, the Fed said they're data dependent. What are you looking for? Because I've been talking about maybe we see, you know, they just become so important if the Fed is as they should be data dependent, it's all up in the air. What are you looking for for those numbers, whether it's jobs and then CPI next week and how that might shape the movement in these markets? The numbers, I mean, this is something we've been talking about for almost a year, right? Said as we move forward now, the main economic numbers are the biggest thing to watch now for the whole economy and all the markets you trade. Without a doubt, jobless claims and unemployment. And it was funny over the weekend, I was listening to some of the shows and I love to speak how especially those who are basically following the government being, don't worry, they know what they're doing, everyone's panicking, whatever, saying, you know, well, yeah, now we know we're in a recession. Well, we've all known, everyone knows we've been in a recession for more than two months. You didn't need the data for that, you know? So, but the one thing I think you have to watch is definitely unemployment claims and unemployment because they were saying how, well, we're at record low unemployment. Well, okay, that's what we are right now, but the question is, how long can unemployment stay as stable as it is with a contracting economy with high inflation like this? The layoffs have already started. You've already seen it in the financial sector over the past two months. We're chased and a whole bunch of other places started already getting rid of people from their lending departments and all kinds of banking sectors. So, if you're doing it in white collar jobs, what happens when it starts trickling down into the other sectors of the economy? It's gonna start to, that'll ripple effect will be big. Now, I don't think it's gonna be a big uptick yet and it may not even have an uptick this month, but I think unemployment over the next two to three months for sure is gonna start to go up, especially on claims and also the CPI, it's going higher, inflation is here. CPI goes higher, watch out folks and the jobs. Yeah, Amazon, Amazon lost 99,000 workers last quarter, man. Teddy, thank you so much, man. We look forward to talking to you on Wednesday. Sounds good, I do too. All right.