 Super Bowl 56 is coming up in just a couple of days, which means it is time to finalize your bed slips and get ready for Sunday's game between the Rams and the Bengals, which is what we are going to do here today. We're going to run through all the top props for Sunday's big game and let you know where you can find some value based on the odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is covering the spread, our weekly sports betting podcast over on the FanDuel Podcast Network. My name is Jim Sodus. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com joined here by three outstanding guests to give their takes on Super Bowl 56. Of course, starting off with Dr. Ed Feng, my typical co-host here, over on covering the spread. Ed, happy Super Bowl week to you. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Looking forward to talking about the game, talking about some props, talking about the excellent in-game decision-making that Sean McVeigh will display in the second half of this game. Never wrong, right? Never done anything to drive us crazy. That is for sure. Our other two guests are today. He can't get the warmest in our game, so it'll be tough. Exactly. Oh, I don't know. I don't know. Well, we'll see about that. He might test that theory for sure. Ed Jinkstone, Ed Jinkstone. Yeah, exactly. Are all of the two guests? Yes, exactly. Second half, Moneyline, Cincinnati Bengals. Are all of the two guests for today are JJ Zachariasin and Ryan Williams. You'll of course know JJ from his time. You're at FanDuel in number of fire, but JJ's got some new kicks. He's over at late-round.com and late-round fantasy. You can find JJ on Twitter at late-round QBJJ. Welcome back to the FanDuel Airways. How is the new gig going so far? It's good. It feels like I'm like, you know, it's like a family reunion going on. And I'm back home, hanging out with my boys. Yeah, I'm excited. I'm excited to be back, excited to be talking about this game. I think it's a good one. I've seen some people say it's like a boring Super Bowl. I think it's a really exciting Super Bowl, personally. A lot of narratives, but then on top of that, there's some really interesting matchups. Yeah, I mean, it's exciting players, which is kind of all I care about. Like Aaron Donald is fun. Joe Burrow is fun. Jamar Chase is fun. That's all I care about. So that's a good time for sure. We can't forget that it's a pit versus pit Super Bowl, with Aaron Donald going up against Tyler Boyd, folks. It's a very University of Pittsburgh Super Bowl. Do you not have a pit? Why don't you have a pit football helmet behind you yet? Why is that not there? I know, that is weird. Maybe I'm kind of waiting to see what happens with Kenny Pickett in the draft and maybe I'll have like a little picket shrine on one of these shows once that happens. Put that Patreon money to good use. We also have Ryan Williams here. You can find Ryan on Twitter at ryanallandzender.com. W, of course. Know Ryan, the host of our Monday Night Football Streams. He'd be on there with me breaking down Monday Night Football. Ryan was also with us Sundays regularly to get set for the each slate of NFL. Ryan, appreciate you having you on today. How you doing? Yeah, man, we're doing well. We're doing well. It's fun to be here with the boys, as JJ says. It's just a fun slate to dissect. And I'm usually talking single game slates with you, Jim. So we got another one here and all the props in the world that you could possibly ever want. Fantasy goodness here on The Fandals Sportsbook. So we love getting after it. It is going to be a blast. What we're gonna do for today, we're gonna go through basically kind of like market by market and let you know where we are finding value based on the odds over at Fandals Sportsbook. Of course, if you are a new listener that says our weekly sports betting podcast, call Cover In The Spread should we have each and every week here on The Fandals Podcasts. And Eric, we of course are live on The Fandals YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, and Twitter pages as well. So make sure you subscribe there because we have live streams often on these channels, Breaking Down, NBA, DFS. We of course have some betting streams as well. And of course, check out Cover In The Spread by searching for Cover In The Spread wherever you get your podcast. Also gotta let you know that with the NFL season down to just one more game with the Rams face and the Bengals, the big game going on this weekend, Fandals giving fans an exclusive way to get in on the action. All customers will receive a risk-free same-game parlay for the Super Bowl. All you have to do is go to The Fandals Sportsbook and opt into the promotion. Place a three-plus leg, same-game parlay on Super Bowl 56, taking place this Sunday. Your parlay must be three-plus legs and have final odds of plus 400 or longer to qualify. If your wager loses, you will get a refund and site credit. Head over to The Fandals Sportsbook today and place your parlay. The big game must be 21-plus in present Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana in permitted parishes only, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia, must wager in designated offer market, bonus issued as site credit and is non-throuble and expired for just seven days. Restrictions apply so you term that Sportsbook.Fandal.com. Gambling problem called 1-800 Gambers at Fandal.com slash RG in Arizona, 1-800 Next Step or Text Next Step to 533-42 in Connecticut, 1-888-789-7777 with a CCPG.org slash chat that's in Connecticut in Indiana, 1-800-9 with it in Louisiana, 1-877-770-STOP in New York, 1-877-8 Hope NY or Text Hope NY in Tennessee, call the red line at 1-800-899-789 or in West Virginia, 1-800-gambler.net. I can see JJ smiling, I can see no one else to do those reads. Congratulations to you on that. Let's dive in here to Super Bowl 56. Super Bowl 56 and start things off with the top level because how we view this game as a whole will influence a lot of things from a prop betting perspective. We think the Rams are gonna cover that's gonna lead us to different props than it would be if we think the Bengals are going to cover. And I wanna start things off here with you. We'll get the Rams' four point favorites over at Fandal Sportsbook. They are minus 1-98 in the money line, total is 48 and a half. What do your numbers say at about this game? Yeah, my numbers have the Rams by five. I kind of see a similar game as to what we saw in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco. I just simply feel like the Rams are better at throwing the ball. And it's not that the Bengals are bad at throwing the ball and they are better than San Francisco 49ers at throwing the ball. But the Rams are second when I look at adjusted passing success rate. Cincinnati was 11th. We all know that they're very explosive with and Joe Barrow is accurate. And that Jamar Chase guy turned out to be a pretty good draft picked. But he does take a lot of sacks. We'll get into the pressure a bit a little bit later. I just think the Rams are better at throwing the ball. So we could kind of see something like we saw in the NFC Championship game. Similar to the Bengals stick around. And maybe even have a lead in the second half, but Stafford and Cup. And despite Sean McVeigh's awesome decision making, I think they come back. And when this game, I bet Rams minus three and a half when this first came out, I don't think it's getting back there. I'd actually like to talk to John Sheeran why he still has this number at four. It's four and a half some other places, yeah. Yeah, I think a lot of other places are at four and a half. He's sticking pretty, I feel like when I've looked, I think Fandall went to four and a half at one point this week. It was four and a half earlier this week. It was four, went to four and a half earlier this week. And it was back to four, I think Tuesday morning, Tuesday morning or Monday afternoon, I think. So, you know, I mean, Cincinnati is a respectable team. Can they win this game and be one of the most surprising Super Bowl champions ever? Sure, of course they could. But I just don't see that happening. I think the Rams get this done. And it probably cover. So Ed has bet the Rams. JJ, what about you? What are your thoughts on the traditional markets of this game? Yeah, I agree with Ed in terms of liking the Rams, but I think the line is fairly efficient. So I'm not really keen on necessarily betting the Rams side. I'm actually looking at the over-under here at 48 and a half. And I talked to Ed earlier this week because I went on his show and we talked about this a bit. And I feel like I'm kind of on an island with this because a lot of sharp people are on the under on this game, but I'm on the over in this game. And I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that, you know, Ed alluded to the fact that the Rams are pass efficient, their pass efficiency is pretty strong. They should be able to move the ball. You know, there's not necessarily a matchup that I'm like overly worried about for this Rams offense. And I think a lot of people are understandably and naturally looking at the Rams d-line going up against his Bengals offensive line. That's just not good. Like it's not a great offensive line and it hasn't been all season long. But, you know, the Rams d-line obviously has these studs and they have Aaron Donald, arguably the most dominant defensive player of the last half decade. And then you have Von Miller that they added, you know, halfway through the season. And there are two guys that can obviously step up to the occasion and just go absolutely nuts and completely ruin this take that I'm about to throw out there. But the Rams numbers, if you just look at what they've done in terms of pressure rate, they've actually not been that good at pressuring quarterbacks. When I say not good, they've been a below average team at pressuring quarterbacks this season, despite the personnel that they have. Joe Burrow though, he's in this interesting spot where, you know, even against Tennessee, against Kansas City, he wasn't pressured at like some absurd rate. It's just that Burrow takes sacks at a really high rate when he is pressured. But going back to what the Rams do on the defensive side, if they do what they've done all season long over the larger sample and they're not able to necessarily get to Burrow, like I think it's sort of expected in this game, then all of a sudden you can see a scenario where Burrow has a little bit more time. He's able to move the ball a little bit better. And these are, you know, at the bottom line, we know that offenses drive scoring and how games go down in the NFL. And at the end of the day, these are two offenses that have well above average quarterbacks, really good wide receiving groups and pass catchers. And I'm gonna bank on that as opposed to banking on defenses stopping these guys. So, you know, sometimes it's really that simple. So I like the over in this game. You know, I don't think it's gonna be like a shootout, but you know, I do think that this line should be probably closer to 49 and a half 50 than it is at 48 and a half. Okay, Ryan, I heard you sounding like you were in agreement. Is that with the over here or the overall thoughts from JJ there? Yeah, more so the over. I mean, it's so exciting to get the over on this matchup. I mean, and you know me, Jim, like I hate rooting for Unders, like just in her role. It hurts, man, it hurts. In every other way, shape, or form. And like JJ was saying, like we have two explosive high powered offenses here. I mean, literally when you're looking at the props market, like there are, I mean, say what you want about OBJ, but there are four guys that at wide receiver position that could go for a hundred yards in this game. Like there's just so many ways that this game could go bananas, like from an offensive standpoint that 48 and a half that we're getting is just absolutely incredible. And I think that we might see it move by a hook, half a point as we get closer on as people are betting this, but maybe it even goes down. I mean, like JJ is saying, like so many people, sharp bettors are talking about the under in this game. And like we've looked at the trends over the past couple of Super Bowls and the trends of the way the NFL is going with it leaning to an offensive game. And it's just not what we once knew for the Super Bowl. And this is going to be an exciting one with explosive weapons on both sides. So I absolutely love the over here as well. I'm glad you guys are on overs because I have a lot of unders later on. So I'm glad you guys are having fun. Well, I am like going to be stressed the entire day on Sunday. So you're living life better for sure. We're talking about some individual markets here in a segment, but first, JJ, I want to go to you because we've had you here on Covering the Spread to discuss your player projection process for a full season. A single game is different, but obviously there are some overlap. You've talked about how you have like a top-down approach, projecting out plays, pass-run ratio, et cetera, et cetera. What can we take from that overall process of building out like season-long projections and apply that? What overlap is there between that and a single game player projection? Yeah, I think a lot of people, especially when it comes to player props, they look at raw data instead of rate stats and market shares. And so whenever you're building out projections, you're looking at market shares as opposed to, like let's look at Cooper Cup for instance, you say, oh, Cooper Cup averages, what, 11 targets a game or whatever it is. And so therefore he's going to see 11 targets again in this game. Well, you have to overlay that notion onto what your team level projection looks like for this game because there are often times where you're facing a team that runs at a slower pace and then that's gonna naturally bring your total number of plays down with your offense. And so those sorts of things can happen. And if you look at this game in particular, there are two teams that have been in neutral game scripts. If you're looking at just when games are plus or minus six points and have a six point margin, both of these teams have been pretty pass heavy this season and the Bengals especially during the last a month and a half or so, they've really leaned more on the pass because there was a stretch during the season where everyone was yelling at Zach Taylor for being as conservative as he was. And he's still being conservative like on first down and such. But so when you have teams for instance that are naturally gonna throw the ball a lot, there's another reason why the over is kind of attractive to me is that when you have teams that when games are close, which is project projects to be close, when you have teams that are gonna throw the ball a lot, that slows the game down in terms of allowing you to run more plays because it stops the clock during those incomplete passes. And so you're really looking at it from that top level approach as you alluded to Jim where you're looking at plays run from a team and a projected plays run. And then instead of saying, instead of delegating and say, oh, Cooper cups gonna see 12 targets and OBJ is gonna see eight targets and Van Jefferson is gonna see six targets. You look at how they divvy up that pie typically and traditionally regardless of game script. And then you say, oh, Cooper cup usually has a 32% target share OBJ 25% target share. And you can take those target shares overlay that on top of the game and all of a sudden get more accurate target projections, which then, you know, spill out into how many yards they have, how many touchdowns they might have, et cetera, et cetera. So it's really, really important to look at things from a market share standpoint as opposed to a raw volume standpoint. And one thing you mentioned there that I think is key for how I'm viewing this game in a lot of ways is the Bengals being passive. You think the thing that sticks in our mind is Tony Romo yelling at the Bengals the entirety of the chiefs game saying they're being too conservative. And they were, they were, they're early down first half pass rate that came as 57%. But over the past five games with Joe Burrow it's 66%. That's a very high number. They have been passive. It's been about 70% in three of those five games. So although like the Romo thing is like constantly playing in my mind, they have been passive. And I think that's important to keep in mind as it will dictate that we review some other props. Okay, let's dive in here to this game. Let's start things off with Ryan. We've got a lot of markets here for this game. You can bet which team will score first that right now the Iran's are minus 130. Bengals plus one away. You can look at which team will score last. We can look at a lot of different things. In the scoring markets, Ryan, where are you seeing value right now over a fan of sports? Yeah, well, I mean, let's talk about just the touchdown scores. I mean, Mixon is plus money to score in any time touchdown. And this dude has like taken over the backfield pretty much. I know people were tilting their face off last weekend with Samajipi, Ryan, getting that screen pass and breaking it for a touchdown there. But like no running back is seeing carries in this backfield. Like Chris Evans is a special teamer now. Samajipi Ron's only coming in on pass catching downs. And even then we've seen Joe Mixon have 15 targets throughout this postseason. So they're bringing him in there. So I love Joe Mixon props this week. Probably not his rushing prop straight up, but his rushing receiving prop is absolutely stellar. I think his receiving yards prop was 25 and a half I'm not sure if that's changed it out, but I love getting the over on that. And just plus money for the star running back is something that I always tend to equate to, especially with the red zone role that Joe Mixon has as they get down there, they're trying to give him the ball. So love that. Yeah, Joe Mixon a 44% red zone share for the Bengals in his full games this year. That's a very high number for a running back. That number was plus 115. The Joe Mixon any time touchdown, it's down to even money now. So clearly there are some people on Joe Mixon here. And feeling the same way as Ryan there. What about you JJ? What are you seeing early on in this game as far as the way you expect things to break? Yeah, so early in the game, there's some interesting data with the Rams and how they handled their drives early in games and how the Bengals handled their drives early in games. The Rams were third best in the NFL this season on first drives this year. And that's looking at yards per drive. So not necessarily looking at scoring rate there, but yards per drive, which is naturally gonna be a little bit more predictive than anything that's touchdown based because there's just more variants there. And then on first drives, the Bengals were seventh worst in yards per drive and they were dead last in percentage of drives that ended in scores on their first drive. And so you have these two completely opposite teams in terms of how they handle things early on. And I think this sort of plays into the narrative, right? Where Cincinnati has been coming back in games and there's this underdog story where they're just constantly coming from behind and having these victories. Well, it's probably because they're getting off to these really bad starts and they're digging themselves a hole and the Rams are doing the opposite. And we've seen the Rams think about both San Francisco or I think about the first San Francisco game or sorry, the second San Francisco game where San Francisco ended up going on that run and then making the playoffs where the Rams blew that lead. The Rams to me are in a really, really good spot to score first in this game because of that. Right now they're at minus 130 to be the first team to score, I believe. And I think that's, even though you're not getting as much juice there, I think it's very logical based on how these teams have started. And then the other thing that I really like here, the other bet that I like is to take the Rams kicking a field goal as the first score result. And that's at plus 350 right now. And the main reason I say that is not only where the Rams third best in yards per drive on first drives, but a lot of those drives really, what's the word I'm looking for? At a disproportionate rate, those drives were ending in field goals as opposed to touchdowns. Then you add in the fact that Sean McVeigh is not the most aggressive play caller, especially on fourth downs in the world. I do think that what I'm projecting here is the Rams score first, it's a field goal. They get off to a 3-0 lead and you get that bet at plus 350. So you get to fade Zach Taylor's scripted plays while fading Sean McVeigh's aggressiveness at the same time. It's perfect, right? It's perfect. With the Rams at plus 350, I like that. Now the one early scoring thing I like is the first quarter total, that is currently at 10 with plus 138 on the over. Now I think the push odds here are very high. So keep that in mind, it was nine and a half yesterday with even money on the over. I think at this current market, I'm okay taking it over here because I'm expecting a more pass heavy approach for this Bengals offense we've seen, which may combat hopefully the issues they've had in scripted plays because that does include a lot of time earlier in the year where they were a bit more run heavy. So I think I'm looking towards a scoring number early on, a non-full game market. I gravitate there, taking that first quarter total over 10, which is plus 138 over at Fandral Sportsbook. Let's dive now into the MVP market. And I can't pull this one up because I'm in New York and they don't like fun here. So I'm not allowed to bet MVP props at Fandral Sportsbook in New York. So Ed, we're gonna go to Michigan instead. The MVP favorites I've been told, because I can't, I can't look, are Matthew Stafford and plus 120, Joe Burrow had plus 230. Any value, neither of those guys for you, any value elsewhere in the MVP market, what are you seeing that I can't see? I mean, I think this market, I really like Matthew Stafford. I think there's a lot of things about narrative that have kind of gone against them. So for example, the fact that he's kind of reckless as a gunslinger and he threw a pick six in three straight games this year and you walk around the greater Detroit area and you'll hear lines, fans goes, oh yeah, that guy threw seven pick sixes one year, man. He's just a pick six machine. That's actually not true, by the way. But there is this narrative around him. And I just don't think it's true. I think he's a really good quarterback and I think they're gonna do some really good things in this game. And I just, I mean, I think this came out earlier when I was talking about my bet on the side, but I just think Matthew Stafford is a better quarterback than Joe Burrow. I think the Rams offense is better. I've not actually bet this market, but those, my numbers support that and I would definitely, I just think more towards Stafford. And it kind of depends on what the historical rate is of quarterbacks getting this award. But I would lean heavily there. All right, Ryan, you're in Illinois. Again, a more fun state than New York. What do you think of the MVP market? Any interest in a non-quarterback or what's your lean in this one? Yeah, I mean, I think Cooper Cup, if you think the Rams are going to win, I mean, this game just shapes up as like the Cooper Cup game. Like I really like the Bengals plus four. If they go to four and a half, four and a half, I'm taking that. But like just when you're talking about straight up, like he is so dynamic in this offense. Even last week, like if he has a game against San Francisco where he is just the catalyst of the offense, he finds the end zone twice. Like it's going to be so hard to not give this award to him unless Matthew Stafford goes out and throws two or more touchdowns or maybe he runs one in somehow to other guys. Because if the work is going to Cooper Cup, I think they're trying to give him this award. We know that the MVP award is probably going to be announced tomorrow and it's going to go to a quarterback. And they always try to make ends meet, right? To make amends for missing out. And he's been the catalyst of this offense all year. And I just don't see it the biggest stage of the game. It's at home. Like this dude is going to show out and we know he has the rapport with Matthew Stafford. So I just think when you're looking at the odds in Matthew Stafford's plus 125, I might as well just get some action on Cooper Cup at plus 550 because if Matthew Stafford is having a good game, the chances are that all of the work, if not most of the work is going to Cooper Cup. So I absolutely love that bet. It opened at plus 650. So kudos to you if you got that action, but I still think there's value there to be had. I will say that Aaron Donald at plus 1500, 15 to one, like I know that's enticing a lot of people, but that is just like, you have to be expecting not only this game to go under, but like no exciting plays are happening in this game. We're getting whatever that game was. What was it? Patriots in whomever? Where was 13? Patriots and Rams, of course, right? How can I, the Rams on the other side, of course. So yeah, if we get an ugly game like that and he forces a fumble against a couple of sacks, there's so much that he needs to do to get that. I've seen a lot of people talking about that better, getting action on that. And I just think that's kind of negative EV when you think about what all needs to happen. Ryan just trying to remind me of my son, Jared Goss struggles in the Super Bowl. How rude, how rude, how dare you? Absolutely. All right, JJ. Ryan Poo Pooed and Aaron Donald won. Can we talk you into Tyler Boyd MVP bet to get the pit love going here? You can't, but close to Tyler Boyd, if you're going to bet the Bengal side, because obviously that means the Bengals are going to win the game. If you bet the Bengal side, I'm going T Higgins at plus, he was plus 6,000 the one ever last time I checked. Main reason for that, it's just, I mean, the odds are pretty insane. First off, with it's 60 to one, but the reason I'm looking Higgins instead of like a Jamar Chase is because the gap between the two from an odd standpoint is just too large. T Higgins and games that he's played with Jamar Chase this year has out targeted him in 10 of 17 games. It wouldn't be shocking if they utilize Jaylen Ramsey quite a bit on Jamar Chase in this game. I don't know if we're going to see like straight up shadow coverage, but I'm sure we're going to see Jaylen Ramsey on Jamar Chase more than we will on T Higgins. That could open things up for T Higgins a little bit. And if he's seeing more work or if he's seeing equivalent work to Jamar Chase, you just need a little bit of touchdown fortune to sort of shift the narrative to go to T Higgins as opposed to Jamar Chase. So I think that the reason I like Higgins so much is because if the market is saying, I don't remember what Jamar Chase was exactly at, but if the market is saying that he was at like plus 1,500 or plus 2,000, 2,500, yeah. Right, that compared to T Higgins being a plus 6,000, I mean, it just seems like too big of a gap to not try to take advantage of that when realistically, you know, I think it's like more of like a 55, 45 proposition between the two guys and who out produces who. And with Ramsey, they've not used him to shadow for most of this year, but they did during the playoffs against Mike Evans when it was very clear that Mike Evans was the guy you had to stop. And T Higgins, he's awesome, but like the guy recently has been Jamar Chase. So if they were to use Ramsey in that way, it'd be more likely to be on Jamar Chase. And that leaves T Higgins versus some more vulnerable cornerbacks for the Rams. So I think that that line of thought is valid. And you could also think about that with the receiving yardage props too. I think that could translate that department as well. If you're looking at a Chase under, maybe I'm not going there first, but you could think about that or Higgins over as well. Yeah, and I should add too that on the Ram side, because I think the Rams are gonna win. I am on Cooper Cup, just like Ryan is. I think that, you know, if they end up winning this game, you know that Cooper Cup is going to have a monster, monster game, so it's kind of tough to get away from them. Absolutely. Okay, let's go to the touchdown scorer prop. Ryan is on Joe Mixon. I think Joe Mixon is also very enticing, but shorter now than I'd like it to be. But I think there's still some value there if you've not gotten it yet. Ed, let's go to you. We can bet anytime touchdowns, first touchdowns, multi-touchdown games, Mixon's also shortened there. He was six to one. He's now five to one. Where are you seeing value in this market, Ed? Yeah, I mean, Jim, this is not really a market that I'm getting into with the touchdown scoring. So I'm going to take a pass in this one. So we'll talk a little bit more about quarterbacks later. All right. What about you, JJ? What do you see in this one? All right. So here's a take for you guys. Okay. This is a little take. Sounds good already. I like to have a little fun with it, with, you know, first touchdowns. Why not? So I already alluded to all the stuff that I talked about earlier, with the Rams being in a lot better position to score first than Cincinnati, based on how they handled their drives and their first drives. So I think the Rams are going to score first in this game. I do think that the first points will be a field goal, but maybe it's a touchdown. Maybe even they take a 10-nothing lead against Cincinnati. So if you look at the Rams side then, the obvious go-to would be a Cooper Cup. But I think it's fine if you want to bet Cooper Cup for first touchdown. But I'm also looking at the exact same logic that I just used with the MVP discussion with Jamar Chase versus T. Higgins. And I'm looking at Van Jefferson versus OBJ, right? Van Jefferson, since OBJ got to LA, Van Jefferson has nine red zone targets. OBJ has 11 red zone targets. Van Jefferson, within the 10-yard line, has four targets. OBJ has five targets. That includes the playoffs for the record. So they're being utilized, not far. I mean, yeah, OBJ gets utilized more heavily in the red zone and closer to the end zone, but it's not that dramatic. And if you look at what's gone on in the playoffs, yes, we've seen a lot more production from OBJ and Cooper Cup than Van Jefferson, but from a routes run standpoint, Van Jefferson is right there running just as many routes as these guys are. He's just not being targeted at high of a rate as he was in the regular season, which is partially variance, but partially because obviously OBJ and Cooper Cup are just better. But the fact that he's on the field and running routes in those 11 personnel sets, which they run so much 11 personnel, we know that Van is going to be on the field often in this game. On top of that, Jim, no Tyler Higbee. There's no Tyler Higbee likely in this game. I haven't seen a report yet that he's officially out, but if Tyler Higbee's out, that's just one fewer passcatcher, reliable passcatcher that Matthew Stafford can look to. So I am on the Van Train first touchdown score. Let's do it. Van Jefferson, 16 to one at the end of the sports book to be the first touchdown score. He is actually, he has longer odds than Kendall Blanton and Tyler Higbee. Yeah, that is where we get a little outrageous. Also for like single game DFS, Van's salary is $1,000 lower than Blanton. That's pretty wild too. So people hating on Van. And here's the other thing with Van too, is that I think a lot of it is just recency bias space because in the playoffs, he just hasn't seen. We've been hurt, but he's had two weeks to rest now. Cause he had that shoulder injury and then the knee injury, but he's had two weeks to rest. Exactly. He played through the knee injury in the conference championship. Two weeks to rest. I think that if you're trying to get in on Van Jefferson, there are reasons to make that a logical play. Yeah, exactly. That's exactly right. Okay. Ryan, you mentioned mixing at even money for an Anytime Touchdown. Anything else in here for you in this market? Let's Anytime Touchdown. So yeah, the Van Jefferson call, absolutely incredible. Love that JJ. That's gonna be one that I'm going to have to be enticed by. Yeah. I mean, everybody feels kind of appropriately priced. I do. So I think we're getting Daryl Henderson back I think you're right. In some capacity, right? Yeah. It seems to be the trend, but I don't really know how much he's gonna play or whatever. I do like Sonya Michelle to plus 240 to have an Anytime Touchdown. I mean, I get, listen, I stray away from bringing up Cam Anchors because I'm following or connected to so many people in Dynasty who like will throw picket fences and torches at my house. You're gonna get blocked on Twitter about Cam Anchors. Like immediately. I am, but you know, and I think that he's a great player, but the facts speak for themselves. Like they run a committee here and how many times have we seen it pretty much since Todd Gurley's been there back? Like these, they're just comfortable with running the hot hand, running the best guy out there. And Sonya Michelle has looked great. I mean, resurgence from when he was at New England, like he has the trust of the offense and he holds onto the football. So like if things aren't going the way for Cam Anchors early in this game or what have you, even when they get in the red zone, Sonya Michelle seeing work. So I love him at plus 240 to get an anytime touchdown in this game. Yeah, the Dynasty players Ryan is alluding to, please mute the rushing prop section when we get there and pretend I'm not talking once we get there. With Sonya Michelle though, back in the conference championship, Michelle played 14 of 18 snaps from 12 yards from the goal line and in. So he was on the field when they were near the goal line. And that was true even when Cam Anchors was healthy. He missed the second quarter due to that shoulder injury, but none of those snaps near the goal line occurred, or sorry, that's four out of six from the 12 and in in that time, none of those were during the second quarter when Anchors was getting checked out with his shoulder. They just preferred Michelle in the high levered spots after Anchors lost those two fumbles versus the Buccaneers. I think that's legitimate. He also came in a lot on third downs, which means the shells gonna be on the field, probably gonna play 40-ish percent of the snaps. I think plus 240 is pretty interesting. I actually was gonna bring that one up two rides. So I think we're on the same page here. I like that for sure. Okay, let's move now to the passing yardage prop. Ed, you said you might like some stuff over here. We have Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford, both slated for 36 and a half passing attempts, minus one and six in the over for Burrow, minus one, 14 for Stafford. The yardage favor Stafford, 281 and a half to 276 and a half. Where are you seeing value over here, Ed? Yeah, Jim, I'm disagreeing with you on this one. I actually like Burrow under his passing attempts. This has been a very common one with Adam Levitane over at Establish the Run. Their models think that the attempts for Cincinnati have been just a little bit too much. We'll talk about, you know, they have been throwing the ball a little bit more on early downs. I was actually looking over at RBSDM a little bit earlier today. And they were at one point significantly below league average passing on early downs. They're actually above average now, a little bit more recently. I guess I just don't trust Sactailer either. I think that he might go back to running Joe Mixon a lot. And yeah, I had the under on Burrow's pass attempts. I think it was 38 and a half against Kansas City. And he was at like 11 at the end of the first quarter and all my friends are looking at me like, what are you doing, dude? And they're like, I hate betting it under. And then we get a little bit later in the game and it won. It actually won because he only had to throw two pass attempts in overtime. But yeah, I'm actually on the under here. I understand some of the data against it, but yeah, that's one I have with Burrow. He was at 37 after overtime. So you won it despite overtime by an attempt and a half there. So Ed is on the under for the pass attempts. I think you had 38 total. Okay, so you actually got about that. Okay, yeah. So you squeaked under there, although honestly went to OT, you should have won it anyway. I by all right should have lost that, but you get a little lucky. They added some explosive points towards the end. It was actually really fun. It's actually really not fun cheering for these under pass attempts. It hurts. Because you're like, oh, that was incomplete. Oh, that still counts as a pass. Luckily sacks don't count as pass attempts too. So as the ran out can generate a pass rush, that can potentially help as well. Yeah. The reason I like the over here for this one is in part because we talked about how they've been more pass heavy recently. Also they've been pass heavy despite playing a lot of games outdoors. They have played only two games indoors the entire year and passing efficiency tends to increase when you go inside and they're playing inside for the third time this year. Maybe that incurred to Zach Taylor to be a bit more pass heavy. Obviously I'm putting faith in Zach Taylor, which is... It's a thing. We'll see how that goes. But I think that we'll see how the Bengals play this one. JJ, what about you? We talked about how your process revolves around a top-down approach. What are you seeing in the passing props here? Yeah, so the other thing to keep in mind with this game, so let's just pretend that the Bengals go into this game and they are worried about the pressure. Because I think that even though the numbers say that the Rams haven't generated that much pressure, I think it's only logical to think that the Bengals are aware of Aaron Donald and Vaughn Miller staring at them on the other side of the ball. And so as a result of that, I could also see them taking more of that West Coast style approach, getting the ball out quickly, not only that, but the Rams allowed a 15-plus air yard throw at the 26th highest rate in the league this year. So they did not allow a lot of 15-plus air yard throws. There were a lot of throws down the field and there were 24th and completion rate allowed there. So they were also very good at stopping those types of throws. So if we're not seeing as many chunk plays like we see out of the Bengals often, then all of a sudden we could see those shorter attempts convert a little bit more and then go with that approach a little bit more. So I'm in this really weird spot with these passing numbers because I could actually see a scenario where the over hits on attempts, but the under hits on yards. And the passing yardage number for Joe Burrow, he's actually hit that under 10 out of 19 games this year. The Rams have allowed more than that in eight of 20 games this year. So I mean, from a matchup standpoint, just like what they've done cumulatively across the season, it looks good for Burrow to hit the under there, but I'm just intrigued by the over from a pass attempt standpoint because I think strategically it just makes sense. And the numbers sort of bear out in terms of just how the Rams defend the pass. I was gonna see if I could same game parlay that, but John Sheeran said, no, no, no, you dummy, you don't wanna do this, these don't correlate well. Yeah, exactly. That's the thing that's very awkward, right? Cause usually you would not want a same game parlay, something like that, because of volume thing and you want more volume, but I really could see a scenario where the under hits and passing yards, but the over, maybe Joe Burrow gets like 40 pass attempts just given their approach in this particular matchup. We don't have a responsible gaming in terms of like not betting outside your limits. This is a responsible gaming in like, okay, Jim, don't be an idiot. Don't parlay this together. Yeah, don't parlay it together. Yeah, I appreciate that. Yeah, thank you, John. What about you, Ryde? Passing props, anything catching your eye there? Yeah, so I mean, talking about the bingo side, let's talk about the Rams side here and Matthew Stafford who is at 281 and a half for his passing yard prop. I love this to go over. I mean, when you're talking about what his numbers are at home here and just him having to force the ball or pass the ball and what I said about the running game is that it really can't be trusted. You're loving what the Cincinnati Bengals have done during this postseason run. 83 yards to Josh Jacobs, but they were able to contain a banged up Derrick Henry to take that as you will, tread with a grain of salt. But I mean, still it's Derrick Henry. And then last week, it's the Chiefs, Claudette was there and mixing, or excuse me, McKinnon, but those guys really didn't run as well either. So I mean, if we get them containing Sony, Michelle and camp makers and a banged up Daryl Henderson, like I love Matthew Stafford to just take the ball into his own hands. And if this is a competitive game, which we'll talk about some fourth quarter props probably later on, but I think it'd be a competitive game throughout. So we know what he does. If it's close in the fourth quarter, he's gonna be slinging on early down. So love getting it over on that one. I'm excited for the end of this, Ryan, because we talked to, we have a spot where you can talk about a prop you want. You've already said you're gonna talk about a kicker or potentially talk about a kicker. You're talking about fourth quarter props. You're gonna have some fun. I'm looking forward to that for sure. Let's slide it over to the receiving yardage props and stick with Ryan on this one because I think that there's some interesting that dynamics at play you were talking about Odell, how he has that upside. I didn't think he did. He made me look very silly for that last week where he had over 100 yards for the first time with the Rams, 62 and a half. This number has been all over the place. It was 64 and a half. It went down to 61 and a half backups at 62 and a half now. A lot of movement there. So clearly interesting in the Odell markets. Ryan, what are you thinking here on the receiving yardage numbers or receiving props in general? Where are you seeing value there? Yeah, I mean, if I like Stafford to go over 281 and some change, I gotta like these props here. On the guys, I think that the tag on Cooper Cup is going to have people straight away 105 and a half. But I mean, like, okay, I'm happy to take that. You know, only 110 on the juice. But I mean, when you're looking, then you go down. Okay, so Odell's at 62 and a half. He said that in back to back games. I mean, his first 100 yard game since I think he was first in Cleveland, I think. In 2019, that was his first 100 yard game since then. So he's definitely getting up to par here. He should, he'll go against a tougher matchup potentially, but I still like him to hit that over prop. And then JJ, you know, bringing up the Van Jefferson thing, I thought I was gonna be the only one talking about Van Jefferson, but I do like Van Jefferson for the longest reception at 17 and a half. This is a number that he's also hit quite a bit throughout the regular season and a couple of times in the postseason as well. So love, love getting action on that. And what's hilarious about this is it's juiced to minus 122. You know, so he's the favorite to hit the longest reception of all these. And then you're looking at his total yards prop and that's 33 and a half. So I think it's interesting to get some action on those props. And I don't want to steal JJ's thunder, but T Higgins, I'll give the floor to him on that, but 69 and a half. If you think that he's going to, you know, get on the other side of voiding Jalen Ramsey coverage. I think he's, he's apt to hit that more often than not. Let's do a JJ here. Van Jefferson over 17 and a half for the longest reception or over 33 and a half yards under two and a half receptions. Cause that's the Van Jefferson special. It gets a 41 yard bomb, catches nothing else for the rest of the game. I think that's the, the, the one we could go with there. So Ryan, he did up for you JJ. Any T Higgins love? Where are you looking at here for the past catchers? Yeah, I like, I like both Higgins overs just for the, for the reason I talked about earlier. I mean, he technically has out targeted Jamar Chase and 10 of 17 games so far this year that they played together. You know, I, I, I don't want to touch a Jamar Chase bet here just because he's so talented. And I, you know, I could sit here and make an argument for an under, but I just don't want to because he could also have 150 yards cause he's a freak. So I'm going to lean on Higgins there and go that direction. But the Van Jefferson thing, man, he's at 33 and a half receiving yards is over under as, as Ryan alluded to, he's one of those types of players that can get that in one play. And it's, it's nice to, you know, we're not talking Jarvis Landry here. You know, it's, it's nice to have that in your back pocket where you're sweating it in the fourth quarter. Hopefully we're, hopefully we're not cause he's going to score the first touchdown, right? It's going to be a 41 yard bomb to, to Van Jefferson for the first score, but he's actually hit that number in 12 of 20 games this year. You know, they run a lot of 11 personnel as I noted the most in the league by far. That's sort of like the McVeigh special. It's what he sort of like forced and introduced to the league a lot more whenever he became head coach. And then no Tyler Higbee. I mean, I think it just is logical that Van is going to, like I, from a projection standpoint, the Van should probably see 12 to 15% of the team's targets in this game with, with no Tyler Higbee. And it, it has room for growth there too. And so I think as a result of that and in an efficient offense, going the over at 33 and a half just makes a lot of sense. So Van during the playoffs while playing with Tyler Higbee and while playing banged up, which he may be less banged up this time is a 9.4% for his target share, but he has 24% of the deep targets. Like he still is tied with Odell for second team in deep targets despite being banged up to play with Higbee. So I think that your projection, you know, 12 to 15% is probably correct once we adjust for those factors. Okay, Ed, let's go to you here. You were talking about some kiddo props. Two weeks ago, we were texting about that. What are you seeing for this one? So you brought up the kiddo prop. Let's, let's talk about that. So a couple of weeks ago, I saw, you know, we went over to fantasy pros, checked out their projections, saw that kiddos projection was over the market. And it's like, oh yeah, you know, I think, you know, there was this idea that he was hurt towards the end of the season and he was coming back off that. So, so I bet the over. However, what they didn't understand was that these projections, which are mean projections are different than what the market values should be. So, because the market value is more like a median, right? So half the, half the results should be over, half the results should be under as long as you're juiced in the same way. And so I was talking to Colin Davy last week and he was talking about the differences between market values and how means and the medians are different. And that got me thinking about some work that I did about a hundred yard rushers. So I did some work thinking, how do you get to a hundred yards in a game? And my hypothesis was that you get more carries towards the end of the game. And that's how you get into a hundred. And it turns out to not be true. About 53% of yards and 53% of carries happen after halftime. But when I looked into it, 40% of the yards for 100 yard rushers came from the top two plays. And so you're getting to a hundred because you're breaking explosive plays. And I've talked before about how explosive plays tend to be pretty random. But the more important point here is that explosive plays really make the mean higher than the median. Those explosive plays really kind of stretch that out. And so to look at Kittle's projection and to think that was immediately and over without going to a calculator, like the univated prop calculator and calculating actually what those odds should be was a mistake. Ignoring Jim Sonis' advice on it also was a mistake. I learned my lesson. No, I didn't bring it up for that. I brought it up because it meant you were looking at receiving props. You didn't have to say what happened. You had to say what happened. I was an idiot and I tried to redeem myself. Anyways, over on the blog there's an article called The Right Way to Look at Super Bowl Props. So anyways, go check that out. So what does that mean? So anyways, I applied that a little bit here. So I got a little bit smarter. I actually have a little bit on Cooper Cup under 102 and a half yards that was kind of based on this analysis, good looking at fantasy pros doing the calculator. In general, when you talk to pro sports betters, they have a lot of unders in these games. And Cooper Cup under also I think correlates with my van Jefferson over. Thank you, J.J. Zachary recent. And then also I have a little bit of a J.J. Zachary recent thing for this game too. I actually took a little bit of T. Higgins under because he's had a lot of yards the last two games. And this is a J.J. two years ago, really like Raheem Mostert under his yardage shuttle for the Super Bowl. One of the easiest bets I've ever had the pleasure of watching. One of the more fun under bets to ever watch in the Super Bowl two years ago. I think there's a little bit of, I think T. Higgins is a talented player. I mean, it's hard. I mean, this guy's a second year player. And yeah, so anyways, I have a little bit of under there. A lot of the projections are under, a lot of the mean projections are under 69 and a half. So I took a little bit there, which kind of goes with my, I don't trust Joe Burrow as much and I think he could get Zach part of it. Yeah, you mentioned Colin Davey. He wrote a post up about like the process of, why that matters, projections and stuff. He used the example of like Zach Levine assist props. That's over at Bettscope. If you search for Colin Davey on Twitter, you can find that over there. It's a really good piece. Like I recommend reading it because there's a lot to learn from it. Yeah, it's really, it is very good. I would just say like, you know, there, please go check it out because Colin's great. But there the, like the difference between the market and the mean is like, like a half an assist. Yeah, like for some of these yardage props, they differ by like five yards. Jamar Chase is 10 yards off. Yeah. I mean, it's 80, I think his projection is 86 yards at Number Fire. Okay. So like, I mean, like- These distributions are so wacky for football because of those explosive plays that just be cognizant of it. Yeah, for sure. So go to the power rank because that's where Ed wrote a piece about that for football from that perspective as well. And check out Colin's work with regarding to basketball props there. As far as my stuff here, we're gonna start off the bummer notes on the receiving props here and go with the cam makers under two and a half receptions. It's minus 174. So sorry if you want a plus money prop, we're not gonna play that way right now. Minus 174 under two and a half because of the role Sony Michelle had on third down during the conference championship. But again, this is before cam makers got hurt for the game. Michelle played 14 of 18 snaps on third down. Acres played just three. So yeah, cam makers could get no way down pass. He got a couple of those in the divisional round, one from Odell for like 40 yards, but two and a half receptions, you need three to go over that. That seems a little rich for me for a guy who may not play on third down. So I think that I wanna go acres under two and a half at minus 174, which leads me into the rushing props. Let's go over there at FanDuel Sports Book and start things off with Ryan. We've been talking about acres, talking about Joe Mixon. What are you seeing in these markets over at FanDuel? Yeah, I'm gonna cheat a little bit because I kind of alluded to this before when we were talking at the beginning of the show and the rushing and receiving props happens to be under the rushing tab there for those who are looking for it. And you're looking at Joe Mixon at 87 and a half. He's gotten 100 total yards in consecutive games here. I do think that they will try and get him going for all the conservative talk that we're talking about Zach Taylor. That comes to the benefit of Joe Mixon, like getting him the ball, trying to get him the ball in space, hopefully in this team, if JJ's talking about if they do implement somewhat of a West Coast offense and try to just get the ball out quickly, that could go to him. We could really hit that receiving prop, which actually we didn't talk about that, but it's over 24 and a half yards there. So I do like that to go well over and kind of balance out his rushing prop. He's coming in at 60 and a half. It seems fair when you look at how things have been going, but I mean, this defense has really been stout against the run of late, really not letting even total rushing hit this prop in the Tampa Bay game. I believe there was only like 51 rushing yards. Most of the work came from for net catching it out of the backfield and just really stellar last week again against Eli Mitchell and Devo Samuel. But I mean, those guys are just so explosive, but I could see Joe Mixon possibly getting there. It's just not one that I'm gonna bet. So that's where I'm getting the leverages, the rushing and the receiving to balance it out. And that number has moved a lot. I don't know if people watching the stream noticed, but I jumped when I refreshed this tab and clicked on this because that number I think was at 95 and a half last week. It was at 90 and a half an hour ago. And I was talking, I was on the fantasy pros podcast earlier today and I said, keep an eye on that market because if it goes down more, it's at 90 and a half for that point. I said, if it goes down more, I'll take the over and it went down more. It went down three yards in an hour. So I think now it's gone too far. Looking at Joe Mixon, he's at 98.7 yards per game in his full games this year. Now we got to go through what Ed was talking about where the mean number does not necessarily mean that the median is going to get there as well. So recent games Joe Mixon, again yards and scrimmage, a 115, 105, 76 under, 86 under, 135, 60, 68, 54, but 163, 123, 110, 91. Like he goes over this number pretty often. 87 and a half to me, I've been staying away from this market. I think now is where you buy back in, get to 87 and a half on Joe Mixon. I think that's a good way to go. I also do like the cam makers under again, sorry, dynasty people listening, 83 and a half is the number for cam makers again because my concern with the rushing prop for acres, which is 65 and a half right now, is if the Rams go run heavy to counteract the approach that Bengals had during the conference championship game where they were dropping eight into coverage, maybe the Rams say, okay, you're going to do that. We're going to run. I'm worried that that could lead to it over an acres rushing prop, but the rushing plus receiving our prop gives me another route for betting against his third down roll. That's why I want to go there. So I think I like the over on Mixon under on acres. I think that's where I want to go with regards to the rushing props. JJ, what about you? What are you seeing on the, with the backs here? Yeah, look, I'm on all of the cam makers unders in this game. I love cam makers. I think he's really talented, but I talked to Ed about this earlier this week where when you're projecting backfields, you have to actually like place yourself in the minds of coaches because unlike wide receivers who are seeing volume based on getting open, they have to earn those targets that they're getting. Running backs just have to be on the field and the coach has to say, oh, we want to get him the ball, right? You just want to hand him the ball. And what we saw with cam makers, he has that wild card round where he looks really good coming off the injury and we're like, wow, he looks really explosive. They're probably going to give him the ball a lot more in the divisional round. And they did give him the ball a lot more in the divisional round where he saw like 96% of the teams running back rushes against Tampa Bay, but he also fumbled twice. And they were key, key fumbles in that game. And so then what happened? Well, he sees like half of the touches the next week. Only has a 3% target share against San Francisco going from an eight target share against Tampa Bay. And so, you know, there's something that you can actually pinpoint and focus on and say, he fumbled, the coaches took notice. They didn't utilize them as much in the NFC championship game. And then on top of that, Sonya Michelle has experience in these spots, right? And he's been very solid. He's just a rock solid running back. And so I think that they end up just leaning on Sonya Michelle, similarly as they did this past game against San Francisco. And, you know, it's just makes four camp acres and those unders to be a little more attractive. Yeah, I agree. It's a bummer, but I agree. What about you, Ed? Are you gonna pick up the vibe here and go some overs? Or are we just all in on the acres unders here? No, we are definitely all in on the acres unders. And one thing that JJ actually didn't talk about on the football analytics show earlier this week was, we didn't talk about Daryl Henderson, that he might be healthy. And just getting one or two carries, three, four, I don't know, could also help with the under as well. Yeah, acres rushing plus receiving is 83 and a half. The rush attempts is 16 and a half, the under there minus 130, rushing yardage 65 and a half with minus 110 on the under there across the board. Sorry, Cam, we'll bet on you for overs next year instead. Okay, Ryan, we teased it. We're open up the board. What else are you seeing in terms of good bets over at Vandalsportsbook? Yeah, real quickly here. I also wanted to talk about, and you're still on the page. So Matthew Stafford, over five and a half rushing yards. Oh baby, let's go. I want the guys to get behind this or laugh or get on me. But this is where it becomes fun because he's hit this in the playoffs. I believe in every game in the postseason. And this is a guy who seven times in the regular season rushed for negative yards. I mean, we're getting pretty much he was only taking QB Neals at the end of games and that was his rushing yards. But now we've seen him in the postseason. We've talked about, okay, everything's on the line. Like if Matthew Stafford needs to lay it out or get a first down or something like that, we could see this guy take off if Cincinnati's getting pressure. Absolutely love that. I think Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill have all hit this bet against Cincinnati. So absolutely thought that was interesting to get on that number. I wish they were giving us plus money on that. They're not. But something to monitor as we go into the game. But all right, let's talk about the game props here. So if you go into the Super Bowl, the Super Bowl props, not actually the game itself but you have to go on to Super Bowl 56 and go into the game props. We're talking about the fourth quarter. We're talking about the second half. I think we do see a back and forth affair. Will both teams lead in the second half? Is plus money on yes at plus 158? Both teams to have a lead in the fourth quarter is plus 280. And if you think there's gonna be a fourth quarter comeback, which just means the winning team trails in the fourth quarter at any point in time is plus 260. I think if we do get in competitive game, if it is a one-scored game going back and forth there, I love getting plus money on this game at the end of the game. I really don't see the Bengals being involved in the shootout or being involved in a block, but maybe it could happen. I think that if the Rams are winning big, we've seen Joey B, the comeback kid, come in and make things interesting as of late. That is where I'm really trying to get a plus in on the market there. And even for the people who are rooting for unders, hey, you can root for the under and just have it be a close game. This is not anything to do with touchdown scoring. You can get a field goal from McPherson or Matt Gay. And that's all I'm gonna say about the kicker props. Because they are absolutely inflated, Jim. They're inflated this week. I wanted to get some action on Matt Gay, but both of those guys are inflated. I think they're over a seven and a half points and they both have hit that, but it's minus 30, minus 130 or something. Too much steam on the kickers, man. What a weird Super Bowl. What a weird Super Bowl where people are hammering these kicker props and taking away Ryan's fun. Coaching decisions, man. Yeah, no, you're right. All right, Ed, what are you going with here? Anything else you're seeing of value? Yeah, for sure. So I'm actually really interested in these interception props. And usually you think about interception props and you think, oh, let's just look at a quarterback's interception rate and project forward. That doesn't work because interception rates are pretty noisy statistic. So a couple of years ago I did some work and found that it's better to look at a quarterback's bad ball rate. So that's essentially interceptions plus passes defended, passes defender, all those situations in which a defender gets a hand on the ball or jars the ball loose with a hit. And it turns out that bad ball rate, so the sum of interceptions plus passes defended is very sticky, almost as much as completion percentage. And so you can use that in this game. And so I went back and I looked at bad ball rate and Matthew Stafford has actually been pretty good over the last couple of years and he was particularly pretty good this year. He has been better than NFL average when you look at his bad ball rate. And that's something that gets really hidden in his interception numbers. I think he had a 2.8% pick rate this year. We already talked about the pick sixes a little bit earlier. And Joe Burrow, he didn't have a great pick rate this year, 2.7, but he actually had an even worse bad ball rate, 13.8%. And that is significantly higher than the 11% NFL average over the last couple of years. So when you look at the Burrow pass attempts, you can put together a quick little model of the probability that he's gonna throw a pick. And based on some pretty conservative assumptions, I think there's about, my number suggests there's at least a 60% chance that he's gonna throw a pick. So that means if you got to look at the price for what Burrow over a half interceptions is, but I bet at minus 130 at Bet MGM yesterday. This is probably my favorite bet of this game for Joe Burrow to throw a pick. His bad ball rate has been pretty bad. And oh, I should talk about Stafford as well. So when you project out Stafford, I'm roughly seeing about 50-50 whether he throws an interception or not. So that's gonna, it depends, obviously depends on the price, but you can find books out there that will probably give you plus money on Matthew Stafford under a half interception. Ed, you can correct me if I'm wrong. Did you not bet Jared Goff to throw a pick a couple of years ago in Super Bowl when he threw it on like the first play and you like won your bet like immediately? Am I misremembering that or was that something else? Yeah, that sounds good. I'm sure that happened. Sure, rubber staff. Okay, JJ, what else you see here on Fando Sportsbook? Yeah, I got another player prop for you. I'm going Jamar Chase over four and a half rushing yards. Oh, okay, okay. He's at four and a half rushing yards. He's averaged 0.4 rush attempts per game in the regular season. But what we see in the playoffs is players and teams getting more aggressive with their playmakers pretty often. And in the playoffs, Jamar Chase has seen three one and one rush attempts in three playoff games. So he's averaging far more rush attempts than the 0.4 that he averaged per game during the regular season. So if he gets one rush attempt, which that's the way they've been utilizing more in the playoffs, I think it's logical too. It's not just like a recency bias type thing. I think they're just trying to get him the ball, which makes sense because it's Jamar Chase. If he sees one rush attempt, he can hit the over on that one rush attempt. So I'm going to hit the over on Jamar Chase over four and a half rushing yards. All right, that's actually moved down to three and a half now, minus one 22. So the juices moved there too. Getting a free yard, but you're paying a little bit more juice. I think that that's a worthwhile trade off there for Chase. And again, if he gets one rush attempt, you're probably going over that number. Okay, we're going to finish up here by going around the horn and asking everyone if they had one bet to make on Super Bowl 56, what would it be? JJ, we're starting things off with you. You have one bet to make for this Super Bowl, which one is it? Van the man, Van Jefferson, over 33 and a half receiving yards. All right, we talked about that before. Assuming Van is healthier, Tyler Higbee, not being out that benefits Van. So Van over 33 and a half. Ed, what about you? What is your favorite bets for this year's Super Bowl? Ed, you're on mute. I like to throw a pick. I hope it happens in the first play and let everyone on Twitter know Yeah, I mean, the bad ball stuff is pretty predictive. I've been, it's been something I need to actually use more for some of these prop things, but yeah, I like Borough. It is now Canon that Ed did have that. I don't know if he did, but we're pretending he did have the Jared Goff one. No, I feel like I had, no, I'm trying to think about this. I feel like I had like maybe Brady not to throw one last year. That might have been it. That might have been it. Because I don't think we were doing this show with in that the Goff Super Bowl. That's true. Yeah, we were not. We did do it though, two years ago when someone named J.G. Zacharyson said, Patrick Mahomes is where the first touchdown at 21, and he did. So that one did happen. I know for sure. Van this year, baby, let's go. So Van at 16 to one, even more likely, based on the odds to be the first touchdown scorer. It's crazy to think about that. It was 20 to one, yeah. Yeah, it was insane. Ran an option to Darryl to Damien Williams, I think, and kept it and he scored. He had like a long run right before that and didn't score. I was like, oh man, I was thinking about like J.G. hitting this prop and then he hit it anyway. That was a very lucrative Super Bowl for me. Exactly. Okay, Ryan, high expectations set by these two guys based on their past track records in Super Bowls. So no pressure, but your favorite bets for the Super Bowl. My favorite bet, let's go with Cooper Cup here. I'm gonna go with Cooper Cup. I didn't talk about this, but Cooper Cup over eight and a half receptions at plus one 10, I believe it is. I just feel like it's shaping up for it to be a pass funnel for the Rams and he's gonna be a part of that. So I love getting action on his props and any ones that can get plus money on, I'm gonna take that. So over eight and a half receptions. And that one is one where you don't need him to bust off any long plays. You just need him to be here basically based on what we've seen so far this year. My favorite bet for the Super Bowl is again, sorry, Cam, under 83 and a half rushing plus receiving yards for Cam Acres. It's minus one 14 on the under. I just think again, the third down roll overblown, Darrell Henderson may be back here. I think he had those factors together and we do get an under here for Cam Acres. So sorry to be a buzzkill, but that is my favorite bet for Super Bowl 56. And that's all we have here for the Super Bowl 56 preview, a live preview on covering the spread here on the Fandle YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages. But if you want more prop talk, do not worry we'll be back here on the YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages on Friday with Jessica Gridiron and Brandon Candula breaking down our favorite bets for Super Bowl 56. Once again, here in these same places. Also again, make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. Ryan wanna thank you first to find Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W and check him out right here, same place to get all of his live streams. Ryan, good luck to you in Super Bowl 56, rooting for these running backs together and hope things go well for you. I appreciate that. No, thanks for having me. It was fun chopping it up with the guys. Absolutely. JJ's Acresons on Twitter at Late Round QB. You can check out the Late Round podcast or if you get your podcasts check out lateround.com. JJ continued, good luck with the good sites or with the new site. Congratulations on the new venture and good luck to you in the Super Bowl this weekend. Thanks, Jim, appreciate it. Ed, we talked about JJ and having him on your podcast, where people find that podcast and all of your work. Yeah, check it out at the football analytics show. I mean, JJ get all the way back to the Late Round QB e-book and being hired at Number Fire and the decision to go independent. So we spent a lot of time talking about that. We spent a lot of time talking about Sean McVeigh too. A lot of really good fun stuff. So it's a different kind of show than this. I mean, we clearly talked about the Super Bowl and JJ's take there, but a little bit more about the fantasy football world in this story. And you get good food takes on the football analytics show too. So that's always a plus as well. You can find Ed's work at thepowerrank.com and find him on Twitter at thepowerrank. I'm at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S, our DFS single game preview will be tomorrow, Thursday, 10 a.m. on the fans of YouTube page and up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. After that, but thank you all for tuning in. Good luck to you with Super Bowl 56. Have fun, enjoy the show. We'll talk to you once again next year. This has been Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.