 Welcome traders to the final live analysis session of 2020 with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and you can see the screen, the welcome screen, just have a Y on the chat box. Good stuff, okay. Before we jump into today's charts. As always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. And most importantly, with regards to today's session, any views expressed by me today are solely mine. They're not indicative or representative of those of tick mill UK or tick mill Europe limited. For those of you here for the first time, just a brief introduction to myself. From university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years, learning ropes. I left with some colleagues and went on to co found and successfully exits a consulting startup post a merger late 2004 I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands. So it's not a day training or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. And after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, the beginners luck ran out. And as the market phase change, I began to average down into losing positions, essentially give back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hits. This was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. It was at this stage that I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track records, working with my mentor for about 18 months to two years. And during which I, it's not just my technical game with respect to research and developing a trading strategy that sees my personality extensively back testing that strategy and forward testing it and underpinning it all with a rigorous risk management approach. And certainly during that period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial games to becoming purely process oriented. So, what does that actually mean? Well, it means that stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. Once you become process orientated, and you have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading simply being a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or strings of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know that my focus on excellent execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered annual profitable returns since 2008. The performance figures you see on your screen are since 2013, and they represent my managed account service because since 2013, I've been managing investor capital via a managed accounts service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentored over 100 private traders of all experienced levels from competing offices to trading in the form of CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content webinars and live presentation content or range of topics from market analysis to development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert, providing market and trader analysis on a daily basis through the tickmail blog. You can actually sign up to receive updates with respect to my analysis through the blog on the particular platform. My other passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called fxcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading time at fxcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing firms capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those who are interested in learning more about what we're doing at fxcareerswap, there's some contact information on the screen. And if you want to follow up and I'm sure the guys will provide you with whatever information you require. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. And now let's jump into the charts and start do something a little bit different start this week. So the charts I'm going to share with you are provided by CityFX, their technical team, and there's some interesting observations here and we're really looking, you know, on the much higher times. You can see on the screen represents each candle represents a year is worth of data. What we've got here are basically yearly candlesticks. Now, obviously, you're not going to necessarily be focused on trading the candlesticks. But it's important to have an understanding or certainly be aware of where we are from a much, much bigger perspective because that can help inform your trading as as we go into into the new year. And certainly an interesting observation from City is that we're sitting on this yearly trend line that's that's held now on three occasions. And we're actually about to post an outside reversal a bullish outside reversal year in the euro dollar. And I note that in under similar circumstances if you look back here in 1985 that that outside reversal candle was actually the low for for a number of years and led to a move higher over 105% in in the euro dollar. And so, currently we're trading a little bit higher than the one 2140 on here the this slide deck is about a week old I think but the observation still valid and certainly we want to see where we close because if we close at or above current levels and this is just giving credence to this this outside reversal and and could be the start of quite a significant trend move in terms of the euro. And obviously the inverse to the euro is the dollar index and on the screen you can see the dollar index going back to 1971 here, and you know the cycles. The dollar has a tendency to trade in, and certainly in terms of secular bear markets in the dollar which, you know, it's conceivable that we are entering one that these bear markets have a tendency, or certainly historically, have have a seven year increments. So we could be in the first year, it's feasible of a seven year cycle in terms of a down draft with respect to the dollar index. Also notes here on the year of this is the yearly chart again, we're getting a big outside reversal candle in the dollar index, and we've got the stochastic rolling over as well and looking like it's going to negatively diverge. So this again adding weight to the idea that that we could see a roll over here in terms of in terms of the dollar dollar index so closing at or what again this when they took this screenshot this is we're training in 1974 training below 90 now, in terms of the dollar index so again adding weight to this idea that we could be in for a decent like lower here in terms of the dollar index. Next chart is the Bloomberg Asian dollar index so it's the dollar versus basket vision currencies. And again, you get the picture here getting a big bullish outside reversal candle. And you can see the last time we have one of those in the late noughties. This led to further upswing in terms of Asian currencies versus the dollar. And now is a chart of the Australian dollar. And you can see for the pin bar aficionados amongst us that we're putting in a pretty decent candle there in terms of in terms of the odds are actually trading a bit higher now, just coming off the 70. We have 76 now in terms of the Australian dollar. And what we can read in terms of the this price action is, as they know here that there's the possibility now of of an extension through 2021 25 and then 8950. So we can chart some women in terms of targets but there is the potential that we are entering now a bullish phase in terms of terms of the Australian dollar. And this is underpinned by the Australian dollars counter or favorite proxy really for Australian dollar strength and that's the copper market. So we have a lot of conservation here and the similarities in terms of price action where copper printed its lows in the late 90s early noughties and big run up we got you can see the similarities in terms of the price action here so if copper is going to take off. If we're going to see a bullish extension in terms of copper, then we can expect that to take these commodity currencies with it so the Aussie and the Kiwi would would be benefiting from from such a move. The next chart is Bitcoin and the implications of this chart are as they say here relatively straightforward. If we, we've taken out these price now we're trading all new all time highs in terms of Bitcoin, and you can see, even in a basic fashion that that if we trade just within the channel here that the scope for for Bitcoin to elevating value quite significantly. This is, this is a, an instrument that I've only restarted tracking this year with the, what once we've got the institutional involvement in terms of the options market futures and options trading on the CME that added another level of liquidity to to Bitcoin. And so it's trading in a far more technical fashion now, but certainly we can see the scope here with a breakout to trade into the top side of that channel. So that's one to keep an eye on. And, and here we have the S&P 500. And we're going to post a bullish outside year on a close above the 3248 trading above there at the moment, and you can see the implications of these, these bullish outside times of the S&P where we can see quite a quite a decent extension higher and even if we just look at the basic channel here, we can be trading up towards 7500 in the coming years so again watch where we close come the 31st but it's it's looking pretty bullish outside reversal, which should then see prices extend into next year. Last but not least, the NASDAQ breaking out and you can see on the screen here, the implications of the NASDAQ breaking out where we could actually see a decent run higher in terms of, in terms of tech obviously this year. With respect to COVID we have seen money pour into the tech market in terms of this work from home thesis, and obviously tech has benefited significantly from that. But there could now be a meaningful rotation higher in terms of the technical setup as well here, as, as you can see on the screen. So those are just some charts to keep in mind, you can, you can look at these through the recording which should be posted to the TITMO blog later and screenshot these to have as reference. So, in terms of where we stand let's check in with a few of these charts, key charts, the dollar index sitting right at the S3 and this internal trendline. So we're watching, see if we can hold here in around current levels. If we fail to hold the S3 and the trendline, then look for a move to test the equal legs so and I say equal legs what I mean is that we have an equality objective versus this structure, which would see us trade down into this 8742, sorry 8742 area. Well, the thesis I'm working with at the moment is that we could hold we hold here at the S3 January seasonally a very strong period for the dollar. And if we can hold these in around current levels, I think we could see a call back back into the 92 area for making that run for the 87. However, we can't hold the current support the 8975 area and watch for a test of 8742. We've got the euro dollar, obviously the inverse of dollar index sitting right at its yearly R3, 122.49 straight into that area, and we have the trendline just above coming in at 123 so I'm keeping a very close eye on those levels. The next minutes can hold the 8970. I expect a potential for a bit of a pullback here in terms of the euro dollar, and not, not suggesting that we're going to see anything sizable here but certainly we can get a retest of the 120 from above. And then that could be an opportunity to, to look to engage on the long side, targeting the quality objective for the euro at 12860 sterling. Obviously we're, we're seeing some benefit from the, the Brexit news music is, it's pretty positive at the moment, and I've been looking for a move into 137 initially any pullbacks then into to hold the 134 135, because what we have with sterling in terms of an equity objective versus this structure would be a target of 147. And if we just look at the last leg up here this was the post Brexit. And we can see that we have an symmetry swing target at 138 40 so pay attention to how we trade in that area. If we do extend and we get the Brexit deal. I think we are setting up somewhat here for a by the rumor sell the fact type trade. So we're looking at this 138 139 area to a narrow we can see a pullback. But like I say, whilst we then hold 135. We really want to be thinking about tests of 140 143 as the, as the next upside objective in terms of sterling. So let's jump on to the daily timeframes here now. And just take a look at the technical setups as I see them developing. I think we're in the process. Well we'll see if we can hold this. This is an area of completing this five wave cycle. If, if we don't, if there is no support there then you know that what I'm looking at is that 87 40. You can see we've actually now but this would be trading very technically in terms of a channel as well. We can watch the 87 20 287 40 area, if we can't defend these current, these current levels in terms of the dollar index. And like I said with your own really paying close attention to this 123 area. I believe I think that this is likely going to be an area where we see some profit taking. And like I say looking for a pullback then back into this, this 120 area as support sterling charts. So, like I say what 138 139 the trend channel resistance doesn't come in at the moment until 141 so if in lower liquidity next week less less participants in the market and we do get a deal at the last minute here, then we could see you know prices extend in a more erratic fashion that I'd be expecting the channel to hold we've got a bunch of these instruments are all trading within pretty well defined channels now. And I'm looking for looking for a pullback in terms of the Aussie here, we're just looking for that 77 cents level that's an equality objective versus this wave one, measured from our way for low so much how we trade at 77 in terms of the Aussie and then if we do, if we do see a spike higher 78 30s where the trend channel resistance comes in at the moment. Kiwi. We've traded through the equality objective in terms of the wave wave one quality measure for the Kiwi. I'm looking for a test of 72 on the upside here to see a pullback what you'll note with a bunch of these instruments is we're seeing some pretty significant divergence and like I say, these obviously really from from tomorrow onwards through to the beginning of January, the liquidity in these markets is going to be pretty dire. And so we can see moves get a little bit erratic like we saw around the turn of the year in 2018. So be very careful if you're if you're in these markets over the next couple of weeks. Because with the liquidity issues, we can, we can see some pretty erratic moves. The S&P 500. This one is just shy of the long term target I've been looking at this 3731 area. Now US stimulus is likely going to or they're going to try and pass something in the in the Congress. And I think we could be setting up for a bit of a by the rumors sell the fact that scenario where they cast the stimulus bill, and we, we see a bit of pullback in terms of equity so watch how we trade at this 3730 area. Now, again, if we extend through there, then the, the next upside objective is going to be the ascending trend line resistance which doesn't come in just shy of 4,000. 300 handles higher in terms of in terms of the S&P gold. Nice pattern setting up here in terms of golden corrected move into this trend line resistance at the 1950. Pay attention to how price responds they can be looking on the intradate time frames for our time frame see if we get reversal patterns there in terms of gold for a pullback. And then we'll see if buyers are actually going to step in here if we've completed the correction here so looking at ABC. So, if we, if we take out this trend line resistance we don't see any supply in the markets in around those levels, then we can expect gold to be breaking out through the 1968 area and this will be the initial first wave, obviously of a much more significant move in terms of gold. So really want to see how we trade at the trend line resistance, because we could have another leg to the downside here in terms of being a more complex corrective pattern. But at the moment, really pay attention to that that trend line resistance in terms of trades that I'm looking at the moment the one I'm looking at is this cad yen, looking for a move down to test this trend line resistance well as bearish rejection, the VWAP rolled over candle so looking for a break down through the lows here 1890 to see if we can get a move to test 8050. And what we've got obviously is this potential double top scenario here versus this prior high. And like I say you can see we've got some nice momentum divergence so price could see a more meaningful pullback we'll have to see how we trade at the trend line in terms of the cad yen. So with respect to the charts it's short but sweet today. Obviously we're heading into the holiday period, and I for one will be far less engaged in the markets over the next two weeks and will be coming back ready to ready to go for first webinar, first time session will be on Thursday, the 7th of January. Are there any questions really won't likely take a look at the charts open to taking requests I can see we've got Charlie the footsie. Let's have a look at the footsie. This again. Here we go. So again, with the footsie you're kind of in that same scenario with respect to sterling really. If we get say you know if there is a Brexit deal announced, then we can expect prices to to extend higher. So if we in terms of a measured move the next technical targets on a versus this prior swing would be 6800 the 127 extension of this of this prior swing. And through there, you could, you can actually be starting to think about the quality objective, which comes in at 72 41. So you want to see how we trade. Again, a deal, a Brexit deal announced, then you're going to see prices elevate. And you've got some technical targets to look out there the 127 extension of that prior swing then the 161 extension and the equality legs, the equal leg objective coming in at 71 62 and 72 40. If, if we don't get a Brexit deal, then you could be thinking in terms of this as a wedge and a failure. Would see us, see us pretty quickly trading back at 62 46 and then back into these prior highs and thinking in terms of 60 39 61 23. Does that make sense Charlie. Yeah, I'll, I'll take a look at that Charlie and come back to you tomorrow. Any other questions. Okay, if there aren't any questions, I will wrap this up here and thanks very much for joining these sessions this year and I look forward to working with you all in the in the new year. And I wish you all a happy holidays. Thanks very much.