 Okay, hi guys Anthony here. We've just got initial jobless claims coming out shortly, so Definitely, I'm interested As much as you are to see how this comes out and this does come after what we saw last time which was this of course Which was US posting record Laos. This was the graphic from last week You remember a record figure and it dates back to going to the you know the 1960s Basically since the data set began and you can see the quite incredible Jump that we've had here Interestingly, you know in terms of layoffs obviously the unemployment rate Skyrocketed in the global financial crisis. We had a deep recession However, it was much more graduated in terms of the the feed-through effect in more nationwide job losses across America as compared to say a new immediate existential threat given it's a Pandemic health crisis meaning an immediate amount of jobs just halted or people laid off meaning there's an incredible jump Unprecedented in this sense the question mark for me now is about how does today's number come out? Expectations for three and a half million. We've got a range about one at the low Up to around five and a quarter at the high as I've said in the briefing this morning I've heard some people talk as as fantasy for those 10 million. I think that would be I'd like to say that's crazy talk, but who knows? I mean definitely from a market impact point of view the closer it gets up and towards that type of figure kind of North of six going towards seven eight million. Certainly the more violent and aggressive that initial knee-jerk reaction will be for sure But yeah couple of different things then to have a quick talk about for one Let's just talk about from a trading perspective Couple of the charts and one is I just want to refresh your memory about how exactly the S&P 500 Reactive the last time we had the jobless numbers now This is the S&P over the course of a kind of a week's activity and you can look at here on the far Left-hand side. This was the last US jobless claims number. So I've just shown you the graphic and obviously you'll remember Quite vividly. It was a really is a bad number in reality obviously mass layoffs leading to a massive spike in people Applying for for benefits in America However markets skyrocketed after that because it wasn't as bad as people have feared now what what kind of more concern with now is about Where do we go? To from here, and it's about the consistency on these elevated levels of which this jobless rate might last and that leads Me on to this and we just jump here now a lot of people talk about You know the v-shape or u-shape recovery I just really wanted to touch upon that briefly because beyond just this initial reaction We're going to see the reason why it is quite important Not fun payrolls is a little bit. I guess it's going to reflect some of this this initial jobless situation We've had over the last two weeks, but only a very small portion So yes, the job decline in America in payrolls tomorrow be almost a consensus estimate of nearly negative 300,000 but that number is probably going to get way more significant in the following month's report given how the reference period is set for when they conduct The data set so here then Understanding all how consistently and to how high the jobless rate is and things like non-farm payrolls Consequently the unemployment rate, which we'll see tomorrow is going to determine then what type of shaped recovery Do we see because this was a great? Kind of sentence or two that I saw that really hits the nail on the head and explains this the key determinant is This the the shocks ability So let's say the coronavirus to damage an economy supply side and more specifically capital formation when credit Intermediation is disrupted and the capital stock doesn't grow the recovery is slow workers exit the workforce skills are lost Proactivity goes down the shock becomes structural Yeah, so this is where we're reacting to these data points because we're thinking about What is the shape here of this recovery and the and the depths of the phase? We're in now which is the immediate aftermath will then define the type of recovery We're likely to see in how structural it is so here that this case study is looking at Examples of the global financial crisis now Canada are actually averted a recession They managed to perform a v-shaped recovery in this instance. So that's that classical Kind of immediate hit but immediate recovery. You then start looking at the u-shaped recovery Which is kind of an immediate withdrawal or immediate decline in interest rates and QE as we had 2008 2009 2010 and so on but then a powerful but more graduated recovery And then you've got someone like Greece in the European debt crisis In the fallout in the early 2010s era where they've had kind of an L-shaped recovery They've just never really got back to where they were as you can see here Pre-crisis growth trend is a million miles away from where the actual growth trend is as of now 2019 2020 And so the question mark will be however Consistently and how bad these numbers are will we see more? I think a v-shaped recovery now is Probably lesser believed from a consensus viewpoint They u-shaped possibly let's not forget. We've had an unprecedented large Fiscal stimulus injection by nearly every government in the world particularly in the developed world America that two trillion dollar package from Trump. He's talking about a four stimulus package to UK's done it as well Germany now altering their fiscal kind of management of their economy and providing stimulus so The one thing I'd say is I don't think we'll get an L-shape it will we get a u-shape? I actually think we might get a a Nike swoosh kind of shape If I could add another one, which isn't quite as powerful as a you but not quite as bad as an L So again context is what I'm trying to provide here for these numbers. All right We've got about two minutes. So let's just have a quick look at the charts. So This is the S&P. Yeah, a bad number bad. What does that look like? Well, the range top end is 5.25 million so you've got to get above that for this to really break I would say this near-term range And that's going to be the kind of the daily low really since UK and Europe is coming to the market any move low below there and been looking to target the the initial late Asia session European entrance point at 2466 and then the bigger test of course would be this Sunday Sunday reopening low and also the low that was seen Late yesterday in the Wall Street session. So this is talking about a negative Development in that sense as well. I'd also be looking for gold to pop higher It's already been rallying going into the numbers and it's up 30 bucks But a bad number I definitely think we get up to that range kind of low up at 1631 here in the knee jerk reaction And then oil will probably fit in tandem with the with the number in a fairly correlated move WTI already up two bucks up around its highs. It's either going to be Low number it adds to positivity a bad number. Let's say jobless at six seven million This needs to come back down again. All right. We've got about 30 seconds. I'll put the squawk on So they'll call out the numbers now shortly Gonna leave my audio running So that you guys can hear everything Six spots six four eight billion six spots six four eight million That's above the top end of the range of six million for the initial jobless claims number Continuing claims. That's three spots zero two nine million three spots zero two nine million for the expected four spots eight eight two Four week average. That's at two spots six one two million two spots six one two million US international trade That's negative 39 spot nine billion cad trade balance. That's negative zero spot nine eight billion Just to recap my US initial jobless claims to be getting that Prince at six spots six four eight million That's what about the expected three spot five and outside of the top end of the indexive range of six million Yes, I just turned the squawk off for a second You can see equities now starting to look a little heavier You can see the Dax here on the left bit of a downtick the NASDAQ just blurs pivot and the support point that was holding through much of the European session Making the S&P chart here a little bit bigger so you can see that was that lower bound level That was same with the NASDAQ holding up some of the price action at 81 50 So they're with a downtick not massive at this point So the number again six point six four eight million says much worse than expected. It's not though Fantastic in terms of how bad it is and you know, there was talk on the streets few people talking about 10 million Definitely is nowhere near that but certainly It's almost double of what we had last week. So look it is it is a negative So gold session highs now you can see that gold just pushing up a little bit more up 31 now on the day Will this be enough? I mean the determinant factor here is I'd want to see equities and a correlated move start to get a little bit more traction But gold, you know fundamentally this is a supportive piece of information. So another push-up now 25 Coming up 25 26 now on the print. So yeah gold getting a little bid on the back of that Let's have a look at WTI crude. Yeah, not too much of a reaction there I mean, we're talking about indirect kind of correlated moves here I mean, it's more about that idea of a bigger broader impact on the economy by a higher jobless rate equating to a higher unemployment rate So what's just keeping an eye on does that provide a bit of a cap given the rally that we've already had? I mean in oil here Depends how brave you're feeling. I mean, you've got that R2 that daily high Might this be the cap that's needed now to see a bit of a pullback and reversal in price for the rest of the day Yeah, I mean a pretty decent risk reward I'd say you could look for an entry point around these levels with your stop-loss just above the previous high at 60 and look to Play the market back down And again, you're looking for more follow-through at the moment. It's a little bit There's a little bit a lack of appetite. It looks like to really drive it forward Given that, you know, everyone's obviously more bearish in there They're tilt to how they think the job situation is going to play out But yeah, you can see that the initial reaction makes a little bit of sense. Perhaps a little bit uncommitted When we get to the open on Wall Street, perhaps then things start to show their hand a little bit more definitively But as I said Hopefully that's a bit of a snapshot of just what's going on. I'll let you guys Continue with your day Hopefully that was useful