 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's a plan demand Forex technical analysis if you're new welcome, and if you're returning welcome back And I hope that you had a great trading week last week. There was a lot of opportunity in the market, especially Buying the US dollar. So hope some of you out there managed to catch a few pips off of that And if you are new, there's some more education material and the links are in the description box below on the website and and some other stuff as well. So Please check that out. Don't forget to like subscribe and share If you like this content as well so looking at the Fundamentals getting into fundamental analysis and we know fundamental analysis is you know The reason and sentiment and risk off sentiment and risk on sentiment is why markets move. So this week ahead We have the minutes from the Fed and European central bank policy meetings and that would definitely be keenly watched as it's an indication of What the central banks are thinking in regards to their monetary policy Whether they're going to hike hold or more likely to cut rates and we're in the European central banks case It'll be more adding stimulus alongside US inflation rate. That's definitely going to be important Jolt's job openings and producer prices UK monthly GDP figures it's going to be important the UK is going to probably be struggling In the lead up to brexit as there's probably going to be no Real new investment things are slowing down anyway You know and you can see that in the data if you've been paying attention So UK monthly GDP figures and trade balance Germany industrial output and foreign trade That's important for europe china inflation and trade balance always important trade balance Is an indication of how well the country is doing as far as gross domestic products and china inflation is quite important as well Japan machinery orders Australia consumer and business morale investors will also react to Fed Chair pals and the and sorry semi annual monetary policy report so Some important data and just a little bit of a I guess a recap on what's happened from last week the Here's a here's a piece from market watch and says it's a hallucinatory. I think I said as you pronounce it hallucinatory. Yeah To expect a Half-point Fed rate cut now Right, but economists still expect a quarter point reduction. So why is that important interest rates an interest rate cut? will The aim of an interest rate cut is to cheapen the currency And to kind of maybe get ahead of any kind of economic slowdown so Due to the fact that we had a good non farms solid jobs report right And in the circle it says it removes any chance at the federal reserve will cut interest rates by half a point in next meeting But they will probably get caught. They'll probably Cut a quarter point, right? And you can see that in the actual fed watch tool cme fed watch tool Which is the probabilities of the frmc rate moves with the cme fed watch tool so I guess this gathers the data from the financial institutions and what you know where they're placing their their money in their bets There's a hundred percent chance of an ease even though this has changed. They changed on friday to a bit of a Small percentage of no change and it changed back to a hundred percent ease So there's a 95 if the market thinks that there's a 95.1 chance of a 25 So 0.25 a quarter point cut and a 4.9 nearly five percent chance of a 0.5 percent cut so a deeper cut is now probably off the table Depending on obviously data is data dependent. So the u.s. Dollar isn't out of the woods yet if they do get a positive CPI number Month for month cpi is on thursday Um, it's expected to be at zero if it comes in at maybe point one Again, or even point two if there's a there's an uptick inflation month for month and even on the core Then um, again, I think that the probabilities will definitely decrease Even more when it comes to a point five percent rate cut so with that being said and uh, um I guess fundamentals sentiment out of the way. Let's look at the technicals and starting off on the us dollar index And so from last week, um, we already know that the dollar strength in the Dow Jones dollar index is just a measure of uh, the US dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro yen and the pound as well as the Australian dollar and This week we've had some decent news. So any kind of, um positive price action What you would have been looking for as prices came down into this demand zone This demand zone as you started the week is looking for, um, you know, if you're looking for buy trades on the dollar any other dollar crosses then, um you know looking down into lower timeframes and uh Basically getting some sort of confluence with the dollar index as it's going higher You can pretty much look for buy trades on any of the dollar crosses. So looking into you know this week um, price did I don't think it actually touched that supply zone. They've nearly pinged off it. Um But if you are looking to potentially short The dollar will take advantage of maybe some sort of profit taking or maybe even some um, some negative news if the news comes out this week And inflation for example, isn't great or worse than expected then you could see something like this happen this week And then what you would do is you just go into any kind of uh, uh, us dollar Cross And then look for some sort of uh, uh, sell trade From a buy trade perspective what you're looking at is probably I'll do a demand zone from there Um And uh, if prices do come back down to here and start to put in some positive price action Then you'd be looking for buy trades on any of the dollar crosses As confluence if not, then you're looking at you know, this this level a bit further down here For any again, uh buy trades on any of the dollar crosses. So now moving on to the dollar yen dollar yen last week Pretty much we were in between this demand zone here prices started to turn up as you see Prices kind of reacted off it this week and then ended up putting back to this zone So there were some sell trade opportunities here into the week as price came up into the supply zone This level is now touched once this is the second time So as a supply zone or a demand zone touches the more times it touches the weaker it becomes So you have to if you're looking at shorting this you have to believe that the Japanese yen is actually a bargain at this price and the dollar is going to get you know weaker Is it for you to be you know shorting this at this supply zone Also, um, the yen would probably strengthen due to risk off So if we're looking at updating the chart the moment right now, you're looking at potential shorts But keep in mind that we have had good job numbers um non farms way beyond, uh The expected number. So, uh, it was very positive Um But you're looking for a short trades at that supply zone if you're looking at buy trades You'd have to really be looking at this area here before looking at getting long Again Just keep in mind as well about risk sentiment So if risk is off meaning that There's a you know the china trade wars with the us starts to come into focus um Or there's some sort of uh narrative regarding the global economic slowdown then The japanese yen is also going to strengthen and if you know get that in combination with some sort of negative dollar news Then this could be a decent short trade But personally i'll be looking for some long trades either into this demand zone here or down here Into uh, it's lower demand zone. It's 107 is a nice level to look for some long trades um Moving on to the dollar swiss And the dollar swiss Was a uh, again, lovely lovely buy trade right here prices came down to this nice accurate demand zone here and again dollar strength Brilliant bounced off of that and continue going higher. So there was at least A good maybe from you know the 97 to 99 200 pips within the past two weeks if anyone took advantage of that well done um And again, you've to buy really the swiss frank and in order to kind of short this area You would have to really believe that the swiss frank was going to get Stronger and the dollar was uh, I was going to get weaker, but um Decent move to the upside now. Let's see If there's anything needs to be really updated and I think we can probably start to update this These demand zones here I'll draw a demand zone there. There's one here as you made a higher high Higher highs higher lows. This isn't drop base rally rally base drop. Um, This is uh proof of value supply and demand trading um And if you want to know a bit more about that, uh, there's going to be a link in the top right hand side And I'll explain more about the uh proof of Value concept in that uh in that webinar So what we're looking for for buy trades for the dollar is a pullback Into this area Here would be the first opportunity before looking at long trades And again, you can just zoom down into the lower time frame before Looking at long trades and again if that one doesn't produce anything Um, as far as any kind of price action, then You're looking at this area here For any long trades First shorting opportunities for prices to really come up to here before looking at some short trades there So, um That's a decent level to look for some shorts But again, you'd have to really understand that risk office coming into the market and the dollar Has got some putting some negative sentiment or negative data around it So moving on to the dollar cad And the dollar cad has come down into his own The canadian dollar has actually been quite strong recently. I think it's one of the only Maybe outside of the pound British pound that is not actively looking to cut interest rates. They're on a holding cycle at the moment. They've They've I think they're exceeding their 2% inflation targets. So they're in no hurry to really, um Cut rates at the moment. So last week, I think this is probably one of the best performing currencies um Canadian dollar So even though you had some us dollar strength the canadian dollar still was quite strong. So Positive news came up, but we ended up sending off a little bit Down into this demands and we're at the yearly Lowes right is this range here at the uh, 2019 lows and we've kind of pierced that but I think it's still decent opportunity to look for some long trades We haven't had a pullback in uh in weeks and I don't want to say pullback. I'm talking about a decent pullback to at least Fair value in in a few weeks. So I think this is a decent area this demand zone from where we are now probably down into this um 1.30 level For a decent uh buy trade on the us dollar again depending on the data that comes out The dollar is still number one regardless of what um, you know, uh Happens in the in the short term overall. So looking at uh The actual chart on the dollar CAD. Let's See if there's anything that needs uh, really updating I guess I can get rid of that matter of fact um Daily time frame is made a lower low So we've got Actually a supply zone right there um So I think anything from now regarding Buy trades is decent Lower zone would probably be a slightly better Um price, but I think here is decent So anything from now and look for some buy trades if you believe that the dollar is undervalued here um If you believe that the canadian dollar is still going to get you know go a bit lower Then you'll be looking at any kind of sell trades From around this 1.31 level on the intraday time frame If not, then this is going to be your next level to look for Short trades to buy the canadian dollar over the us dollar so Some decent setup something coming up this week on this currency pair Um Yeah, I think that's about it Looking at the new zealand dollar us dollar now And This week we had prices come up in fact This zone Apologies, it was actually drawn wrong It's meant to draw it from here. You know, even I make mistakes Um Didn't see that that was actually the last bullish candle before prices made new lows. So in actuality The supply zone started from here So, uh, we did come up into this zone here Right here and then actually pinged off it um and Again the dollar strengthening this week had an effect So if you did take advantage of this, um, well done, but uh, luckily for me, um, you know, I didn't necessarily Stay you wrong in this one, but um, it really wasn't drawn correctly and I apologize for that so To correct this chart I have to draw this You can see where I didn't I didn't zoom in properly. I thought that was actually, uh, a Bearish close that was actually a bullish close there I realized during the week, um, that that was actually a bullish close there So it should have really been here for the supply and uh Remove that and now what we've got is some supply Up into here So if we do want to take advantage of Any supply now you'd be looking for price to come up into this zone here before looking at short trades Buying the us dollar if you're looking at buying the new zealand dollar again right now You're looking at buy trades and uh some buy price action Again on the lower time frames four hour one hour, um, or whatever is your Trading time frame if that level doesn't hold then you've got a couple of uh decent levels down here or Down at the very lows even though the very lows are touched once twice already to be very cautious when um Buying down here should probably be subject to some sort of manipulation as the level is quite obvious And traders will be looking at buying here. So you probably get something like a manipulation before Um, you know prices move to the upside if the new zealand dollar is a bargain and consider the bargain down at these areas here Moving on to the pound dollar and the pound dollar This was a nice trade um Took profit down here from up here price actually reached the uh the profit target Um and uh again continues to sell off on the friday. So that was a as a decent trade Um right now we'll be looking for any kind of pullbacks into some supply zones. So The pound I can't say the pound really strengthening any um great amount Because the uk if you're not aware um is going through a leadership contested with a conservative party Which is the ruling government right now and uh while The uk is leaderless and there's a lot of uh brexit fears um It is uh, it's not necessarily great for the uk at the moment even though they're doing decent from a um fundamentally Fundamental perspective, but I expect that fundamental um Uh Data to kind of shift to the um To the to the downside so We've got a few new levels created levels here this week This isn't normally how I would draw um any kind of demand to be fair But it's just I don't want to necessarily draw a wide zone Of demand in you know when you've got supply there So I'm gonna just basically draw it here as there is some demand here at the moment You've seen prices pierce through but not necessarily touch the second Demand zone down here. So I'm gonna keep it like this for now There's a little bit of demand here and let's see what happens this week if you do want to be a buyer now It's probably the time Other than that if you're looking at getting an um advantage taking the budget over the immediate short train You'll be looking at this area here Again, just zoom down into a lower time frame like for example The four hour and then you'll be looking for short trades around here. If not You can zoom Out and get involved Around here around this 1.27 You know the start start that supply zone around here before Looking at some short trades if the dollar starts to look, you know get weaker and if not, um, You know the higher zone 128 level around here will probably be the really decent area to look for short trades But for now, I think the the pound is definitely a sell Dollar being a buy trade and just look for really pull backs into these supply zones Unless something obviously drastic happens with the the dollar. I can't see the really the pound Becoming strong if the pound does start to rally it pretty be only really because of market manipulation Like I said in this uncertainty leading up to brexit Looking at the euro dollar now euro dollar this week There was a nice stop hunt This week and here it was stop hunt a lot of people a lot of traders would have been Long here placing their stop losses below this level and you can see this candle takes out all the stops right here I pointed out to The traders in the in the group About this this potential stop hunt this week and here it was It was an obvious very very obvious level And uh, we wanted to be buyers of the dollar anyway Nothing positive really coming out of europe None at all And if you were chasing price then you'd definitely be caught out here and uh, I have been saying that this week And uh, you can see what's pretty much happened Change Some of this Actually affect I'll put that up to the highs there And we've got a bit of supply Include that all that level there So this week being a buyer potentially of the dollar depending on what happens We'll put it maybe look for some sort of pullback into this zone before looking at short trades and um, if you're looking at buy trades pretty much anywhere from now this week You're looking at a buy trade within this demand zone prices may pull back again We've got cpi coming out for the us dollar. Um, and also monetary policy statements, um for the For europe and if not, then you'll be looking at if prices do manage to come all the way back up to this 1.1 38 level then this is going to be where You should be looking for short trades to get some long trades From the absolute low of the you know price for this year is going to be Down here and it's 1.111 level So, uh Again, this is several times once twice three times So could see them in you know price come down here and see a manipulation before going to the upside um But in my opinion the uh, the dollar is the buy and the euro is a sell Uh euro yen Euro yen this week Did pop up Got massive spike and then prices went to the downside A little bit of risk off, I guess Um, the euro pretty much sitting off came down into this demand zone, but didn't really hold Touched the top of that that demand zone there and started to move up slightly So, uh looking at that chart Oh Look back Um, here we are so we're going to delete this Area here What I'm going to do is just create a Another that there for now um So yeah, if you're looking for any kind of sell trades You'll be looking for price to come up into here and I do like this This area here this nice candle wick for supply, but again You have to believe that the Japanese yen is a bargain up here or that the uh risk is definitely off in the market before looking at You know some short trades here If you're looking at buying the euro This area right here This is this level has touched once already so twice is okay You know, it's one to one level is a is going to be put a better area and just just below Right, but when you start to again touch a few times That's when the there's really no more demand always demand The best time to buy um from demanded the first touch Right, so when prices created this demand zone moved up and prices came back down That's always the best time to uh buy not saying it's necessarily going to work out 100 But it's always the best opportunity to look for buy trades And same thing for example when prices created this supply zone here All this supply zone here. This would have been the first area first time prices come back into this zone nice Sell trade right there, which we did that to take advantage of this one as well um But for this week is pretty much where you are You're looking to need for a pullback into any of these lower end supply zones If you want to be a buyer of the euro You're looking at buy trades in that demand zone uh dollar And he always his dollar cutting rates this week um Got stopped out for break even on this trade and to short On this candlestick here and prices came back and before spiking me out um, and then non farms came out And uh prices continuing potentially to the downside it did touch this demand zone here Right, so there was a buying opportunity. You would have been a brave buyer really to buy right after an interest rate cut On the australian dollar But nevertheless prices did go higher taking out all the stops. This is where most traders would have been placing their stops clearly myself and you can see where you know Traders have been stopped out and then now Potentially we could be um, you know on the way to the short side an interesting article Um for a couple weeks ago was that black rock, which is I think they manage I think it was a six point something billion I think it is always a tree and I was keep keep getting the number mixed up, but they've managed a lot of uh Their their valued assets pretty much a Huge as a as a fund They are actually short the australian dollar and they see the australian dollar going down to At least zero point six five cents so If you're buying here at 70 cents, there's there's at least 500 pips if they're correct I'm looking at short trades On the australian dollar myself, but again, it's data dependent If the dollar continues to strengthen and the australian dollar continues to weaken, you know data-wise then this is going to look like a Very very decent trade and if the australian, you know rba Reserve bank australia continue to you know on their cutting cycle Then this could look like a very very decent trade all the way down pretty much if we're looking at it to around here the 65 cent level this demand zone here so Where does that leave us now if you're short Well done If you're not sure you have to probably be looking at you know any kind of pullback at the moment Or if prices continue to make lower highs lower lows so they make lower highs lower lows You're looking for pullback into the lower high. Yeah before Looking at a short trade that would be What you'd have to look for if you're looking for long trades again Buying right here is going to be where you'd be looking for In that demand zone right now this week if not it would have to be all the way down into the 68 50 60 40 zone um And finally the australian dollar japanese yen Uh this week we had again a bit of a spike up spike down interest rate cut And then prices have gone pretty much Uh bit sideways over the you know the thursday and the friday Risk is less off. There's always a risk off environment at the moment There are things going on global slowdown and things like that and the australian dollar Is is quite sensitive to risk sentiment as the In a risk on environment the australian dollar will do very well in a risk off environment The japanese yen will do you know quite well So it's always worth even if you don't trade this having a look at this currency pair to see Potential risk sentiment and you can see that there's been a bit of a pullback as well So risk hasn't necessarily been on the table or risk Risk off hasn't been on the table as much You know especially but donald trump as well and um And the chinese government and north korean government actually Seeing eye to eye on certain things or at least uh, you know come into some sort of um Um, I guess karma talks and less war rhetoric if you know, I mean The market has rallied When it comes to the australian dollar against the japanese yen up into the supply zone So there were shorting opportunities around here Let's go to the What was the yen So right now if you think that there's going to be more risk off involved then you're looking for really kind of pullbacks And then looking for short trades or even a short trade right now If you're looking for any kind of a long trade, we've got actually some Hidden demand right there Hidden demand So you'd be looking for By trades right here if not by trade in that zone there Put atop of that zone and then if not probably down into that 74 Round number is where you'll be looking for By trading again. That's with risk being on so you'll have to really kind of Think that the australian dollar is a bargain down here at the moment It's proven to be you know, this proof was the proof of value concepts Let the market prove where you know potential bargains are Yeah, and then when prices come down into this zone Look for you know potential bargain, you know prices again, depending on obviously the fundamentals and risk sentiment. So That's it for this week. I hope you found the analysis useful. Please like subscribe and comment share And if you have any questions, leave them in the Description box below and I'll get back to you as soon as I can Hope you all have a great trading week and take care