 Public Connections. I'm Jay Fidel. This is Think Tech Hawaii. We're talking today about the evolving implications of Vladimir Putin's war. And it's very serious business. Let me introduce Dr. Carl Ackerman. He is going to join us today to examine these implications. Hi, Carl. Hi, Jay. Always a pleasure to be with you. A pleasure to be with you, Carl. And thank you for joining us today and taking the time. So here we have a perfect subject for a historian, social studies person, like you. To help us understand the changes, let me read this, that are being revealed, some of them already existed by the invasion of Ukraine, including, and I'll just list a few, the rise of Russia, if you could say it's a rise, and Russian brutality, and the blatant autocracy we have going on there. Clearly the resurgence of the Cold War, the fragmentation of the liberal world order, it's pretty serious already, the new role of nuclear, chemical, and biological warfare, and other anti-personnel weapons we're seeing emerge. The deterioration, and maybe I'm projecting here, the deterioration of Western Europe through the deterioration of the EU NATO and the United Nations and the US as peacekeepers in Europe, the global tolerance for atrocities, war crimes, genocide, advanced high-tech and hypersonic anti-personnel weapons, the new power of high-tech internet and media propaganda, all this is emerging, and of disinformation and destructive hacking, and the inability of Western democracies to deal with these problems. I haven't finished, those are only the few that are being revealed as Mr. Putin goes on and doubles down on his strange, brutal, genocidal initiatives. It is really in many ways in Europe, it's the end of Europe as we have known it, and ultimately it will affect the United States. So Carl, can you say why this is happening? Why all of these things are emerging when being revealed only in the past 45 days? We're in a faster transition, a more horrendous transformation than we've been in since World War II. Well, in terms of the quickness and our being aware of all this, of course, this is the internet generation, so that's an easy answer, but your other questions are much more complex, Jay, and let me go back to something that Thomas Friedman said in a recent article a couple of days ago in the New York Times and then kind of reinforce this, but what he said is that basically you have Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Putin is a war criminal, and so it's very difficult. Ironically, it's more difficult to deal with Vladimir Putin now than the old Soviet leaders, because at least they had a bullet bureau during the Cold War. So I think the current situation is worse than the Cold War, because we're dealing with a war criminal, and it's very difficult to deal with a man who knows no boundaries, because even the Soviet officials knew boundaries because they were a group in the collective bullet bureau, but Putin is very different. The other thing about Vladimir Putin, I was thinking about this today, is that in many ways this is a renewal of Stalinism, with Putin saying he's, as Stalin did during World War II, he restored the church even though the Marxists signed this dogma didn't allow for it, and Putin has maintained that he's Russian Orthodox. I probably doubt that, because, well I don't probably, I doubt that, because he was raised under the Marxists on this regime and probably has no religion whatsoever, because of course religion was the opium of the people according to Lenin, but what's interesting about Putin, and I always begin this way, is that he represents a tradition in Russian history going back at least to the 19th century and probably to Peter the Great, well most likely to Peter the Great in the 17th century, that Vladimir Putin does not like the West, he's a Slavophile, and when he makes comments, he doesn't make comments the way the old Soviet regime did against the United States, he talks about the West as opposed to Russian civilization, and this calls back on 19th century Russian Tsars, the deep notion of nationalism and orthodoxy of the Russian Tsars, he's really pulling the strings of Russian nationalism, and this is quite dangerous, so that the notion of internationalism, or working with the West, or not being fearful of NATO is out of the question, because only Russian civilization can lead the world. Lead the world into oblivion, I haven't mentioned all the economic effects that he is having, enhancing inflation, creating new inflation for us, creating supply line problems with oil and gas all around the world, he evoked all these sanctions, he didn't do them, it was done to him, but he evoked them and now look at the effect that these things are having, I mean ultimately there are a lot of observers indicating and finding, concluding that we'll be in a global recession, or worse, because of Mr. Putin, I mean I really don't think, I don't know the comparison with Hitler is inevitable, but I don't think any one single person has done as much damage to as many institutions and countries and people in the world as Putin, and it's only beginning, it's only beginning and there doesn't seem to be an end to it, he is going to double down until somebody stops him, and so far I don't see any way to stop him, he was quoted today to say, well the sanctions don't mean anything to me, I'm going to continue my initiative against Ukraine and in all other ways, despite the sanctions, it doesn't matter, so I think what you know what we have here is by the standard evaluation, a wild man, a crazy man who is in control and knows how to stay in control, the history has not seen anybody like this, it's just it's really remarkable, and I think the one thing that we ought to discuss Carl, is that when you consider all these things, these implications that are being revealed about the world and humanity and countries and you know the liberal or not so liberal world order right now, they are going to affect every man, woman and child on the planet, nobody is exempt, this one man has the the power, it's clear to affect the entire human race, thoughts about that, am I right, am I wrong, who is going to stop him and when? I think you're right Jay, going back to the very last comment you made about who's going to stop him, when you know David Remnick in the last New Yorker in his notes at the beginning of the New Yorker said something really apropos to what you're just saying, he said that you know Putin works by personal patronage, so the people that he has surrounding him are a not going to tell him the truth if it's going badly, that that is a war, and b, owe him for their wealth and their privilege, so that's you know you're not going to change him that way, and the only thing that's going to change I think Vladimir Putin is when Russians come home in body bags in masses and they just very may well, so you know let's, I mean we don't want anyone to be killed, Russian soldiers or Ukrainian soldiers, but you know the reality is going to hit the Russian people, and of course Vladimir Putin doesn't care really about the Russian people, I mean they're going to, they're suffering already in terms of economic sanctions, but you know he and his oligarch friends, well not so much as oligarch, his patronage friends I should say, are really the ones who are you know still gaining and really are not, are losing nothing, so that's really, that's really key. The thing Jay that concerns me the most, and I'll get into the politics just a moment, is the nuclear power situation, you know in Zapparizhia the Russian still control the largest nuclear plant in all of Europe, and we saw what they did at Chernobyl, they said to their soldiers go dig in over there, you know where there's nuclear soil, and so you know they're telling their own soldiers to do this, so imagine what's happening in that Ukrainian plant, so that still scares me, it's been you know at the very beginning when you and I talked from the very beginning I've always been very concerned about the order of the nuclear plants, because if the Russians have control we're in as we what we like to say in Hawaii deep kimchi, because they you know I mean I what I'm talking to students I often say have you ever heard of a you know something like a Volvo or a Mercedes coming out of Russia, of course not, they don't have good products, and they don't have good quality control with the exception maybe of the space station, even that's questionable, so you know this is a really this is a dire moment for the entire world because of nuclear power, and the Russians having control of the Ukrainians, nuclear power at least at one huge power plant, the second thing is that I you know one of the things that Vladimir Putin has done recently is he's appointed Dvornikov to be to run the show, and Dvornikov was born in 1961, and you know that's not pointed out by nose by most news media that means for 30 years you live in the Soviet Union just like Putin had a long history in the Soviet Union, and you know he went to a you know I think a military academy of Frunze in in St. Petersburg this is the military's man military man, but his record both in Chechnya and in Syria is killing civilians, so this is also very dangerous, and I think again going back to Thomas Friedman article what we can do to counteract this is number one support the Ukrainians in their diplomatic processes, I think President Biden has been exquisite in terms of his no-fly zone, because he doesn't want Americans and Russians shooting at each other, and being very cautious, although today he became a little bit more less cautious and called Vladimir Putin what he is is a war criminal, but on the highest levels that's a very strong statement, true but strong. The second thing Thomas Friedman said which I think was really good is that when we talk to the Russian people we make it clear that it's not the Russian people we're fighting against it's Vladimir Putin only. The third thing Jay, and I think this is maybe something that you brought up with your excellent questions, is what can we do the question is long-term all about this, and you know there always have been environmentalists who have said we've got to get off our dependence on oil, and of course with 30 percent of our oil coming from Russia before this conflict you know we in Hawaii have a dependence on Russian oil, luckily there are other places we can go to, but still 30 percent is really high before the conflict took place, so we have to go to alternative energy so that we're not dependent on Russia or any other country for oil production, and that's going to take probably some sacrifice among among the American people, but once it's done we'll be less dependent internationally and well our goal for that was 2045 2045 is 20 some odd years away we don't have that much time we do not have that much time and in the meantime the people in Europe are going to be freezing in the winter there's going to be a problem about generating electricity in various places in the US and elsewhere around the world we don't have that much time and you know you talk to the you know the clean energy industry and sector here in Hawaii they say yeah we can do it but you know they have to be incentivized government has to step up national government local government and people of course as you said they have to be willing to make a sacrifice and that is one of the very special things here are they willing to make a sacrifice do they understand the stakes and if they don't understand the stakes and they're not willing to look at the news you know the news and people are complaining already that gas is costing too much they don't link it with the you know with democracy and the survival of the free world and the liberal world order and this is really a mistake you know and he has got complete control over the minds of most Russians and that's extraordinary and that'll continue and they'll support him even when those body bags come down come back that that is my expectation here so we don't have any freedom you know democracy we don't we don't have that kind of mind control and the problem is that people are going to go I think in the wrong direction you want to see congress go in the wrong well when has congress gone in the right direction since Trump and maybe before Trump you know the problem is that we are going to soften in our support and this is what I worry about because if we soften in our support Vladimir has exactly what he wants and the other thing is I mean you know that these these changes like some of the changes that Trump elicited among his base in his four years in office turn out to be permanent they turn out to be you know changes in society and some of the things that have come up around Putin are likewise changes in society now he reaches down to a kind of base and and there's a you know there's an inclination to go right in Europe because of the migrant situation over the past several years there's an inclination not to care about the Ukrainians there's an inclination not to care so much about the liberal world order look at Marie Lapin it's very troubling in France and you have you know similar political processes going on in Germany if they back off the Ukraine protection where will we be then and I fear there's the real possibility that the changes that Putin has revealed the implications of his I call it success and it is successful he's redefined war as no leader before even Hitler he's redefined war war is mostly against ordinary human beings people killing people as fast and as brutally as you possibly can this is back to I don't know I would even say they didn't do this in the 12th century this is so primitive and he's doing it in full plain sight for all the world to see and the world hasn't stopped him yet he continues to do it and with that new general Carl as you said he will do it more that's the problem well you know what has not been mentioned in the French press much or you know that at least my analysis of it is that well well it's true Macron you know I'm 26 or something like that percent and Le Pen was like 21 or 23 I mean there was like I think three percentages between them you know the left candidate the socialist candidate also had like 21 percent so I think you know Le Pen was like 23 Macron was at 26 but so I'm not as worried about France as other people because I think those leftists are not going to vote for Le Pen let's hope they don't stay home they're going to vote for Macron and so that's I think that's good news about France I don't I you know I'm not as scared as I was you know years ago about Le Pen and one must remember that France elected you know not too long ago people like Mitterrand and you know sort of conservative remember this Jacques Chirac even if Macron wins what we have seen is the emergence of a right wing in French politics and that's not going to go away and that right wing is a political force in a democracy that pulls Macron away from defending Ukraine I think you're right and I hope that I hope that you know if and when Macron is is reelected that he will stick with the you know general NATO perspective and of course Germany you know a semi you know liberal to left person was elected after Angela Merkel so you know we're in good shape in in Germany you know I mean and I'm not I'm not even so concerned I'm not trying to put left against right because I think that Jacques Chirac who is more rightist in France would have probably well I think he would have supported what's being done with NATO and it's it's and I should I should say also that what really you know on the other hand we've been talking about things that are problematic but on a on a brighter note I mean look at how many people have been accepted by the Polish people Ukrainian refugees and you know it's not enough Carl me let me argue it's not enough and keep hearing them say you need to you support us with money we're running out of funds we can't continue to do this and over a month or two or three more those complaints are going to be magnified and the number of the number of migrants or refugees is going to be magnified it's not necessarily going in a good direction we can all be proud of them for now but the direction is not necessarily encouraging I well you know I mean it's difficult for any country I mean look at look at people in the United States three-action to our southern border I mean it's you know and the problems we have with immigration good or bad you know I'm not trying to make it a trial statement here but I mean I think it's difficult when you have you know millions of people across the year border two million or so four million and that's very difficult in terms of you know in your economy I'm not sure what the long-term effect of this would be you know 20 years 30 years in terms of adding to the population growth and also to you know building you know infrastructure infrastructure let's talk about Ukraine itself okay you know because Ukraine is clearly being devastated the people are being killed by the tens of thousands now Mariupol is evidence of that and brutally and Abuka is evidence of that and the the buildings we can see on television every day 24 hours a day the world can see these buildings all the institutions all the infrastructure being destroyed and you can say well maybe we can put Humpty back together again we'll go in there we'll make investments but the problem is the country is being destroyed you need people you need culture you need the connections that make a society and he's wrecking them I don't know if we've ever seen this before not in modern times you're an historian maybe at some point in human development before you you know you could sack a city that's that was the you know sack a city you can make you rubble out of it which is what he's doing the new kind of war the problem is it is opening a possibility for other tyrants to do and it's not just him there are people moving to the right all over the world and they say to themselves well this is a new definition of war a new definition of brutality of using the weapons of mass destruction let's all do it this is the way we deal with the neighbors who trouble us and then you have the end of the liberal world order you have an illiberal world order and he's inventing that for us I think that Putin of Vladimir Putin's trying to I think the response on the part of the west and on part of the you know heroic Ukraine fighters um and you by the way Ukraine is not perfect and there were problems with corruption before this all started so I don't want to paint you know a completely rosy picture although it's hard not to think of you know the president president Zelensky as being you know extraordinarily heroic um and I think that that's the way he should be um thought of but I think Jay that um that the response actually may have a limiting factor um on you know China's wants of Taiwan and um you know that the North Korean dictator and other dictators around the world are um looking at the situation saying oh my goodness you know this is Russia one of the most powerful countries on the earth and they're having problems with the Ukraine and I think you know people have you know asked me in the past you know why did Vladimir Putin so misunderstand what was going to happen and I you know he was using the Czechoslovakia 1968 um Hungary 1956 playbook and you know he didn't realize that people who have tasted democracy and tasted the free economy um you know they don't want to go back because they realize that you know controlled economies and you know countries that don't allow freedom of expression uh don't normally prosper very much and um what's interesting to me is that even if you talk like about a Marxist son in this country like um China you know one of the things that China has done is you know freed up the marketplace I mean the politics are still totalitarian but they freed up the marketplace and so that's why China's thriving I mean you have all these independent entrepreneurs doing business so um it's it's you know I don't think it's entirely as bleak as um one might think uh there are terrific either there are problems but let me go back to the United States for a second because here's my analysis which differs from most people on the block um and that is while we had January 6th while there has been you know um you know Tucker Carlson and and people from Fox News who have been um you know uber conservatives um I think that a lot of Americans even those who voted for Trump or may have thought that our elections were um not good have been sold the bill of goods but they still believe in the constitution and the reason they're fighting is because they think that something was done immorally about the election so they still believe in elections they just didn't think it was a fair election because they've been fed this information by um uh sources on the internet and sources at Fox that are basically telling lies yeah but inherent inherent in their belief in that regard uh is is um is the elevation of Trump himself if they believe there was something wrong with the election they believe he should still be president that he is a very good president kind of you know and I think there's a lot of people in this country are still wedded to that idea well we will see we will see um in the next presidential election but I think you know um a lot of independents aren't comfortable still with Trump and you know I think if you ran again as the republican candidate he's going to get beat you know especially if he's facing Biden again I think he's going to get beat even with inflation but here's something that happened the other day in the senate uh the senator from Missouri is named um Josh Holloway is that something like this holly josh josh holly thank you thank you for correcting me josh holly well um our senator from hawaii brian shots took him to task and uh i took him to task about the ukraine and said you know you weren't for this initially and nor was trump um and uh speaking of donald trump you know anyone who wants to vote for him should think about his foreign policy he got vladimir putin completely wrong and uh you know i mean in the words this is you know as the world knows now this is this this man is a war criminal who is someone who believes in absolute power and believes that he can bully other people in in regaining territory and so um and by killing people and by killing civilians and by killing his own people in terms of russian troops so I think that um brian shots in the on the senate floor said hey this guy wasn't originally for the for the ukraine and apparently this uh the senator from Missouri was trying to say oh we should be giving them more when if when at first he was against the against giving the ukraine weapons and things like this so I think if we have more people both republican and democrats calling out the far right people um in the united states and and debating them and saying you know what what is this all about and uh not only just on on on political issues like the ukraine but allowing people to love who they want to love um in terms of um gay and lesbian rights and you know people um you know cross gender and things like this I think these are all issues we have so many issues we have so many issues that have to be that have to be challenged and of course the ukraine I in some ways I think the ukraine has made people more democratic more wanting to support you know you don't bump into many people in the united states uh even on fox who want to support uh Vladimir Putin and so uh this is a change and so the the I think as president to linsky has said he's inspiring people across the world to rethink their democratic principles so that's the good news jay well I wish I could be as optimistic as you are I I don't think we have time people are dying by the thousands every day the country is being wrecked and in in the wreckage of the country in the devolution of the country to rubble um what is happening is our uh morality uh our liberal world order is being changed and uh death spots all over the world are seeing Putin's success and it is appealing to the flaws in humanity and the question is and I put this question to you how is this going to wind up um we have so many factors working at the same time and then when I see you know for example that ridiculous um confirmation process of Katanji Jackson um the other the other day I say this is how Americans spend their time um on race on racism don't we have more important things to do the world is burning as you know you were in the program yes well you know global issues the world is burning in there and they're playing with issues that are simply inconsequential um you know that are that are wrong direction and so I worry about the American government I worry about the American people I worry about Western Europe and its ability to protect the liberal you know world order and I worry that that Putin is doubling down every day not going away he's continuing to do this he's controlling the minds of the people in his country uh he's using every brutal weapon at his disposal do we have the time uh shouldn't we be focusing on protecting the world order instead this is a crisis and I and I I grant you there are things happening in this country that may be encouraging in some ways but can we attend to the global issues um can we um focus on protecting the liberal world democracy or are we going to get all caught up in this kind of Trump argument that we've been having and and I worry a lot about that well you know going back to your um first statements here Jay you know I mean the Supreme Court justice that wonderful woman has has been confirmed and while you did have people like Lindsey Graham just being ridiculous as he had already approved her lunch so either he was either he you know he um hadn't done his homework in the in the previous confirmation or he was grandstanding I think it's the latter and um you know you can listen to him but you know you should listen more to I mean I think people in general should listen more to people like Cory Booker who you know talked about what it meant to have an African-American woman um nominated and then confirmed um uh for the for the Supreme Court and my point is this is such a ridiculous debate yeah well we got Nova slavery and racism already do we have the time and opportunity in a transformational world to have to deal with these silly silly arguments by Holly and the like these silly Trump arguments when you know it's burning and and I you know I worry that we are not going to be able to handle world leadership we can't be the city on the hill we are no longer a place to which everyone wants to go for freedom and democracy this is what I worry about and and Trump has set these things in motion you can track so many of them to him and you can track Putin to him he unleashed Putin in so many ways and now now we don't address it we should be addressing it on all fours well I you know I agree with you the overall picture is that we have had a recent upsurge in you know right wing politics but I also think that there are some geopolitical things going on here too and you know when we had our burning issues a wonderful symposium with just you know really eloquent and thoughtful people on there you may remember that the woman who represented India said look we're going to have hands off this situation from an Indian perspective because Russia and India have been close allies in terms of economic development and we can't afford to do that and I I understand that geopolitical position I mean I don't agree with it but I understand it and so and there are you know African nations also that had received you know support from Russia in the past and one of the from the former Soviet Union and they they abstained but you know I think that where you and I Jay are coming from is also you know at what point do you take a moral position I mean at what point do you stop appeasing people like Vladimir Putin and you know I mean I think our president Joe Biden has started to do this and I would I would take another I would take another attack also both on the right and on the left is that sometimes our news media gets focused on you know Joe Biden's son or Jared Kushner and their business deals and things like that and I I you know Jared Kushner recently has been in the news because of his deals with Saudi Arabia and his investment company and I I think that's really a you know 10th 11th 12th degree importance one of the most important things is saving the Ukraine and getting people through the you know our houses of Congress who are being confirmed by the Senate in terms of good people and I think to a certain extent both on the left and the right I'm not going to you know bash either one of them today but you know of course the right wing has been doing some pretty atrocious things recently as in as I use example of Lindsey Graham and you know Lindsey Graham should be better than that I you know it's just you know his his comments during the hearing I mean there's no excuse for it he was just being childish and and grandstanding but it's a test of democracy isn't it right well here's the thing and we need to get our act together here's the thing it used to be and I'd like to go back to these times when you know a president nominated someone for the supreme court they may have different views than someone on the left or on the right but if they if their jurisprudence is decent and they haven't done something really awful in their lives and you know you shouldn't go back to their their childhood and say oh they threw up or they were five well that's ridiculous they should be approved the president has the right to I'm afraid those days are over car you know I well I'm hoping we can get back to maybe I'm an eternal optimist Jay but I but let's go back to the Ukraine for a moment and I just think you know seeing these Ukrainian people in this you know today there's the report on this like 75 year old grandfather you know helping to push back the Russians you know and it's you know unfortunately for the Russians you know the Russians are always you know alluding to and Vladimir Putin to the to World War II and you know they will again on May 9th but you know victory day for them and for the world you know unfortunately that the Russians are the Nazis now and so they are committing the same sort of crimes that the Nazis committed against them and it's it's tragic and I want to my final comment to you Jay unless we have more time and I would love to talk more but my final comment to you is lucky enough or for me my father was one of those airmen that flew into every theater of World War II including flying he had clearance to fly over the Soviet Union and what happened was that the when the Germans bombed they would bomb buildings and leave the infrastructure up so that they had to tear it down and then rebuild but the good news for all of this is that the Soviets did rebuild the Japanese did rebuild the Germans did rebuild and you know in terms of the Japanese and the Germans they're thriving economies they're you know doing well and both countries you know as far as I could see here are committed to peace and I think Prime Minister Merkel was the was the one that was most accepting of immigrants that were non-white immigrants and coming into Germany despite the fact that she received a lot of heat for that and I think you know I think there's a lot of really quite decent people left of the world and we're watching the Ukrainians you know as as you might say from that you know from the World War II fight the fight the good fight and you know it's it's it's demoralizing getting up and turning on the television and seeing you know Ukrainians dying every day but they are fighting back and they're being very successful and as going back I'm going to start I'm going to end where I began what Thomas Friedman said is we have to continue to support the Ukrainians not only by giving them weapons but to support their diplomatic measures because they're an independent country thank you Carl Carl Ackerman a historian a teacher at Punahou school for a lifetime joining us as he has on a number of programs to try to examine this transformational course that we're on right now and we'll be back with more and and we'll see how it evolves and we'll see if his just his optimism is justified we'll see Carl okay Jay I just want to say you continue to be in my book the world's one of the world's greatest mensch and for those of you who don't know that word it means a really good person it's safe to you Carl thank you so much thank you thank you so much for watching Think Tech Hawaii if you like what we do please like us and click the subscribe button on youtube and the follow button on vimeo you can also follow us on facebook instagram twitter and linked in and donate to us at ThinkTechHawaii.com Mahalo