 Welcome back everybody to another crypto stream. Hope you guys doing great without further do Let's get started and closure blah blah blah. You guys know what about Everything is educational Don't really want to waste time Let's get started yesterday pretty much when slightly as intended slight slight variation on Entry because we didn't really get the raid that we were looking for on the stops But still nevertheless it did go down We're looking for at least I mean Potentially just grabbing it all the way here before going down But instead it just was happy just closing at this at the high here Look at Me and there is that section that we're looking at here There was that spike the highest point So it'll create stops for itself here again. You can see it's a kind of mixed bag. It's not holy sort of Longs or holy Short and said it again, it's just a mixture of the both We're getting you sort of coming in that we're looking for longs to be added around the same positions As the previous set as a previous sort of highs So in that essence is sort of pretty much when As well as you could have hoped As you can see just doesn't even come close and just keeps these guys on edge But even still here's another sort of Weird things that that it did Where we swiped down I mean sure yeah, you could have jumped in here, but again, it's not really sure of Finalized in terms of going down at this point That sort of comes in around this area here when we get that swipe and even much later at this sort of second leg here and As an extension this sort of push here. So as you can see it's a lot A lot later for the confirmation and the actual sort of trade Even though we did have the right bias coming in saying. Oh, yeah, we're looking just to go down after take on these stops or Illiquidity increase in longs and We can compare it to ears because I think that's the main Reason and why it did not do What we wanted it to do we're doing this this This there we go as you can see when we sort of open it's Spy sort of spikes itself high as you can see here creates a high here already at this point here and You could have just waited and missed this here entirely And just waited for this one and no one would have blamed you and just said, okay, just match high with high I mean you could have come in here because again, it's a nice little double top It's sort of safe to say, okay There's essentially to come down if you did sort of come into it again. No real goods Stop placement here The only real good stop placement would be this Entry here because then you'd have a really nice sort of stop placement here If you entered into any of these sort of bars here But looking at it They are again the same thing here You got a nice little entry here stop placement here still could have leveraged the entire move or at least 8% of the move but Seeing how tight the stops were that 8% of the move would be relatively A lot more profitable because then you can expose yourself to more risk I use the term risk loosely here because again, it just means you stop to wall a decently wider and Any entry prior to then would have been sort of a very long stop at this sort of point here So it'll have been a very sort of wide Area you'd be looking at to try and enter Again, I'll be all the way here so you can see how waiting can Be really good and just sort of give you that extra sort of Brett, let's just say of okay You're waiting out. Sure. Sure. You missed the quote-unquote perfect entry and you can't flex on On everybody say, oh look, I got the absolute top and whatnot But again, it's just it doesn't matter if you get the absolute top. All it matters is good good entry was good to find risk and From there everything just falls in line Again, so and You can see as this goes up as this sort of hangs around just thinking to yourself That's exactly what we talked about just a raid on these stops coming in Adding long volume here because we knew this was a split split majority Down the middle where we had a decent amount of shorts getting stacked in the pre-markets During asia and london or more mortal asia But after the fact it sort of cleared that out added sort of the traders to go long then Pushes them back down under Very nice. So Now we sort of have monday sort of defined now now a lot A lot better in terms of identifying highs and lows for the week. There we go. There's monday highest point This monday's highest point. That's monday's lowest point And there it becomes there lies our 50 percent. We can sort of clear out that last week The week before last Getting an influx of liquidity coming in again You do expect some retracement to get similar story to what we had yesterday Where we're just trying to clear out the shorts that we stacked Stacked here as you can see a lot of people came in just panic sold or shorted. So Generally speaking it's something that's easily Said to be retraceable just because it needs to be Uh, because otherwise you get a bunch of people going short and then it becomes less profitable the more further you go down Looking at things now again. You got you got short short short cleared out longs short Clear them out partially here Partially here again same thing Again, you can see every time they clear these guys or a majority of these guys out because they come in either too late or They come in just Looking stupid really considering how early we're moving in now fast. We're moving uh Uh decently not not not fast, but we're moving a decent amount We have a lot of time in our on our hands before we sort of fully set this set this out Uh, so we're trying to look for uh Where it would if it did go higher where it Logically sort of conclude itself And again, we sort of maybe give her a buffer around here Uh If it hits these stops it sort of maybe finds itself a bit higher just around the vicinity here And then we can sort of mosey along back further down And we talked about this on monday how uh, we've got a really big sort of news day coming tomorrow and that sort of means we're looking at this uh with fated breath uh just because uh We're building a tunnel shorts prior to a news release. So we're looking to stack We're stacking shorts. So uh retail are selling so we're looking As a trader just to be in the inverse sort of trades just to sort of look for potential entries for longs Maybe average it down prior to the wednesday Uh, and if it ends up going higher on the tuesday, we sort of Let sort let that loose in terms of uh potentials because again, you could always reverse the entire monday move and just Grab everybody along and just call it a day But that's something it rarely does so You're looking at this and just saying okay A lot of shorts already coming in tuesdays already trading low and it looked it's sort of Set setting pace to do the same thing So you're probably looking for further down Humiliation of more shorts down here by retail So you're looking for maybe wednesday to be a very bullish sort of offset, uh to the rest of the week In terms of today, I don't think we have nothing major coming in uh Imports uh a sporing Friday it's tuesday Uh, there we go 10 o'clock job openings Decent, but this just 10 o'clock again That just lines up to when you'd ideally want to be entering anyway. So It's nothing major. There we go There's that massive flood of liquidity and goes up to that area We're looking for and already sort of finds itself back down Uh as as you can see a bunch of stops hit a bunch of sort of uh Market buys coming in and that's sort of Where you'd say oh, yeah, that's definitely looks like stops got hit So it stops getting here It just means market buys and those market buys instantly absorbed and it's now a sort of We've done it a bit earlier than intended, but we still done it nonetheless Uh, so you're potentially looking for it to sort of mellow out now Trade within here if it tries to reach for higher again next sort of area You want to look for is targeting above this area? Maybe even above here back at around the 50% maybe Uh of that monday if it trades all the way back here, that's sort of Where we'd come in and say, okay. It did a deep retracement. I can definitely pull this back And and from there you're definitely looking for a short no questions asked here You're probably looking for a short Some questions asked Here around here you're sort of no question asked shorting just because it looks more appetizing It looks more appealing. They pulled it back this far just to sort of see the white of the eyes in comparing it to uh spot Uh, we can see again all that panic selling people start coming in just that out break out buying here So that's that's always nice to see uh correlation with those guys to break out buyers as well as sort of shorts getting liquidated in terms of uh Bullish arguments, I don't Very few to be made uh again the only sort of uh One would sort of look at is an internal sort of test and under sort of this area here So if we sort of clear further out break Break this top here or you've I mean even this one to some extent We come back and in and around here and hold this Again and can't break sort of the range on the uh The new york range so you have to do it before a set date. So it has to be coming down before open Uh, then that would be your only sort of recourse for a potential long Up until again 50 percent sort of re uh reshacement fill Uh, and you're being very cautious about longing. Uh Here just because uh I don't know. It just doesn't look right Doesn't sit right because we don't have many confirmations for that Sort of look at where uh, yes is that again did Obviously so this exact same spy. So it did everything that spy did As you can see that's that liquidity clear that we talked about after clearing out each uh, longs that were trapped here Accumulated some shorts here Then clear these guys out again added more here So cleared them out once cleared them out twice hadn't Had enough volume then down it went Now we're sort of coming in longs getting trapped push back down again It looked exactly the same as of bitcoin. Uh, it's sort of trying to push for uh in some arguments, uh To be made up for just a bit higher, but not too much Uh So essentially looking for that to uh, sort of hammer it's way back down Double what i'm here. It's always a nice thing, but it's just trading back into this point. So it's a nice little internal Uh test of liquidity Now this is a boring part c this stream is only need to be 15 minutes and i've already sort of Discussed what i need to discuss But we'll monitor it see if anything changes whilst we're here Uh, we'll sort of flip through some news. Uh, see if uh, they've They've given us anything, uh, of note. Let's sort of put this to the other screen Whilst we look at news so i can monitor it simultaneously I'd expect to raise interest rates again this week. Perhaps last time it's cycle I don't know I'll be bullish for the next cycle not with the next cycle. I mean i'll bullish for the next sort of uh next time they, uh announce interest rates decisions not the one that's coming up but the one after Just because then it'll speed the confirmations like oh, yeah, they're not raising anymore because It's expected again things don't go always expected Federal reserve expected raise it's benchmark interest rates by another quarter or percentage On wednesday in what could be in what could very well be the last interest rate hike of this cycle economic success 25 base point move to push the Fed benchmark, uh 5% where it's currently at 5% which is again what everyone's full casting And that's the numbers that is priced into the charts. So then that becomes uh Where you set your anything above and anything any number above that is Very bearish anything below that is bullish anything At at that price. It's just it's going to be uh price action based Don't neutral I think uh, they were very well done enough to cull the monster inflation Have they done enough? I don't think so Trading and derivative markets have bought uh odds, uh in the quarter point great hike greater than 8% roughly where it's been for a week If you don't want to hike uh, they should have I mean that's not really how they work I don't think yet guys We're definitely gonna raise it so Don't even bother don't even bother going going uh long it's going to be raised. Okay guys Like they announced that Uh, the feds in street quite a missy will meet on tuesday. Uh, that's meeting now. I get That calendar Uh No, it's not kind of didn't show them whenever they meet today So error charts will know Charts will know uh where to price something because It always says Bonds and stock market want to believe the feds is going to uh come to the rescue here opium Since the 80s the fed has cut in pretty quickly at the first sign of economic slowing This time the fed is going to follow a different playbook Like the recession given the inflation is higher than it should have been in Then it has been rather in 35 years harrick said We really want to go back to the 70s and 80s to understand what they are Have to go back to 70s and 80s Let me go that far back. I don't think trading if you have that data Let's not look for it. Let's not waste time Uh Allaman agreed that the markets are misreading the fed markets believe that as soon as the economic Goes into recession fed will go it's going to untighten. I don't think that's the case Fed is quickly then inflation could raise ugly head again. He said That's true. You don't you don't want to fast sort of uh Sort of post saying i'll get caught everyone just fit from saving not spending to just balling out because again, it's In a ball but Recession is needed uh every now and again just because it just resets the status quo uh And then sort of uh put people in a hole that they can't get out of and those people uh Then just gets left behind It was a nice little liquidity clear of people So to say I know that sounds grim Uh sonium uh men's skin head of you say macro analysis why uh Care where you're from she said that He has penciled in the recession uh later this year The stress in the banking sector and subsequent pullback uh of lending will trigger the downturn. She said uh Yeah, uh sounds like I know it doesn't sound like we're 2008 levels yet, but getting there getting there a milder session Oh instead of being a great different recession is going to be a mild Bloody hell Reports from the recession ahead So guys stock up on all your non perishables and your bottle caps uh recession times is coming Uh Paris said he's expecting one of the mildest recession on record his unemployment rates going Up to 5% currently from 3.5 Uh, it's not a bad outcome. This this is an economy that over short and needs to come back to normal Uh I don't think unemployment rates that high I mean we're already kind of sort of uh in You know in the market where it's I don't think it's more favorable towards employees, but there's certainly an abundance of uh jobs Uh to the point where they're hiring child labor Uh, so Sure, if we hit recession we cut spending a bit more Uh, but I think where we're at now and and we we've cut spending a decent amount. So I don't don't think we get five percent. Uh maybe just a half point because I think the main things the main things to buckle at yeah, you know I can see where five percent may come from is if small businesses and businesses that took uh silicon valley bank uh out Like uh, so people who took uh loans out with them and had collateral with silicon valley bank Because it's mainly sort of newer startups that did that. So maybe that that's where the shortfall of employees will come from And still five percent seems a bit high For a mild recession Um, that's one thing for a mild recession seems a bit high Uh, economics think that uh, this will call the economy in a way equivalent to 2225 basis point rate hikes Uh, that's one reason for the talk at central bank that is done raising interest rates I don't think fed uh goes on Probably more permanent sound sounding pause uh until they feel like a slipping into recession Until then there'll be more basis towards tight bias towards tightening I don't I think then the next one will probably not be a pause. You'll still continue then I mean We're not slipping into recession. We're showing signs right now, which I could be slipping I mean, but we've been showing signs since Well after covid we didn't really cover. I mean those that sort of increase in gdp for a bit as everything healed, but then it just got budged completely Parson Fighting congress of the raising uh, us debt ceiling. She said we expect the fed to be more cautious in the face of this This kind of in 30s resistance. It comes from the top of ongoing concerns about the banking sector So again just just basically Bank screwed us again They always do please Whilst looking at that. I mean Bitcoin sort of just developed a bit more short. You can see it's just going Uh, it's just doing what it what he needs to do. Good morning, bro slept in slept in today It's just doing what he needs to do. I mean this could be seen as sort of a nice little bullish retest here and we felt it coming down within this sort of vicinity Uh, this could stretch itself a bit longer again. We've got that first point down pat We've got that first point down pat. Um, this is the summer room But we have it There you go. Oh damn. I'm so good at eyeballing stuff, aren't I? uh, but Over here, this is just coming in filling in this uh, so okay. No, yeah, don't know just vibing. Ah, that's a good thing, man I mean, uh, yeah nothing too much is happening just yet, but It could be it's just could run back the same thing It just depends on what this ends up doing here Uh, again, we're looking for this pushing out here again. It just did it a bit too soon Uh, so maybe one more sweep up before pushing it back down uh Again today's should should be a non-another sort of non-committal day where you just probably uh Just expecting it to build up towards whatever Benz ends up doing Because I hope we're putting all our eggs into that one basket that's that's gonna be a really nice little turn for us just testing it out and And to that extent and you can see And the reason here why we'd consider this a test is you can see how people Really, they just sort of short this into a believer and they see red and they and they get blinded by the red So we're coming back into those red candles and those Red candles will be so here and here and we're just building up more short And then we can easy just grab in for a double top add more But still holding the same bias as I did when I started the stream where we're just looking to run back what we ever did What we did on the monday where we're just looking for a liquid sticker check Uh Which is already done. We've already played our liquidity But we did it a bit too soon. So now we're looking for potentially a moment to break people's ankles in a fast little sweep Before pushing it further down because this still could find its way up to this area and end up being its sort of final sort of push essentially It's also yeah final hurrah Yep, grab everyone go long Everyone come All the boys will come But yeah Just bearish. I mean you can see how things ended up yesterday in our favor Uh And I expect more of the same wherever pushing down, but It's just to how far we end up pushing down and do you want to push? Really far down prior to the wednesday, which is because Uh, the further we go down the more short we get the more likely we are We are to just clear out everybody on the wednesday, then it just becomes a very sort of fast move Uh Fast move and that just it's sort of relatively unsustainable in terms of longer term sort of trends Uh, because we want sort of the longer term trend to be I don't want to say down, but at the same time I want I want it to be a bit more a bit further down Uh, just because then it sort of clears out everything in terms of uh perfectionists, uh, so if I mean if we can get the larger structure to again We've talked about this being an M large structure push all the way down here to clear that everything It just resets the cycle for a sort of push up higher but We have I think two weeks until uh, we get that historically, uh really bad Really abysmal, uh sort of trade, uh week, uh And I don't want to fault you as well as the data I want I mean we can do 10 years data, which will be 13 of january, that's 10 years data, you can see that's on the 20th week Grab as many data points as possible, there we go, as you can see abysmal, uh, two weeks, uh, coming up so It could be that in straights goes intended we clear out all the liquidity Yeah, we have one final sort of push Uh And we sort of trick people into saying oh we broke We broke range we grab all the liquidity we can do here and just have a nice little Oh I don't know if I call it nice, but I have a uh level where we just sort of punish everybody because main thing about is In terms of not going higher is the fact that if you see the short liquids, it's not really stacked To uh two hours sort of side where we're not going to get a lot out of it if we go up higher Rather would get a lot more if we continue lower and or just consolidate uh, just because Consolidating uh downwards will sort of let level people into that false sense of yeah cool It's going down. Let me let me trade that downwards that let me let me open up that short Grab options here real quick Uh Again, you can see where these longs are and you can see where Why I'm super sort of worry super bearish on that me Uh And it's done it again, hasn't it? Where people just never learn Uh Some of them these next to my surprise in the car for me, so that's short So there's there's that argument to be made where we swing up higher on the wednesday We're on we're just sort of pushing out all this Uh and grabbing as much as money as we possibly can out of these guys before making a beeline to under these guys and just saying you know what Thank you guys for free money Then essentially we're just looking for a v-shape recovery V Because then we have to make ourselves Uh a scarce and find ourselves all the way back here because this is all the way down at 360. That's uh, That's a terribly long way down. No That's all the way down here Uh I don't I don't know if if uh these are up for a target Or if these are just be uh just here as on the side of the institution because There's a lot of money, uh that they made as if we hang around here About the same time This is a long way to fall And I don't think we have the time for that. No Uh, but we can surprise ourselves push outs if we can push out uh consecutive weeks Oh consecutive weeks like this then maybe maybe but Generally, I think these guys get off pretty scot-free. Uh, if unless Why this time next week where we're already sort of making our way downtown Uh around here already sort of pushing out 380 as a number uh, then we need a sort of Course correct a bit then push back below then we can finally hit 360 uh, because again In one fell swoop that just looks uh I wouldn't say unplausible, but relatively so in contrast to just letting these guys just sort of say I have You know what? No one gets to have fun in the market I'm saying I'm saying that no one gets to have fun. We just call it. We just say everyone dies So those guys they look like our next sort of three mil or we now Hentle that in that 360 is where we have largest level of liquidity available to us in the next coming weeks and that becomes our sort of Point where we want to revolve around And it sort of works out was Bitcoin then that means we can finally achieve that 4500 and even lower Uh, but then you just mean like we escaped this range from nothing And not for nothing, but generally so so We escaped this range was as if sort of sort of points where it just Ended up not mattering Sins are going up higher and in the short-term impulse I mean you have these areas for Wednesdays to sort of take out We have the liquidity here as long as it's sort of closing nicely here. We should be fine And in terms of what retail will look for is again Just just looking to draw this and you're just looking to laugh at people's face where anytime it comes here You can see how your breakout traders will come let this break line break And then we laugh at them because uh, they're stupid They got reverse on their faces And we did that so They got this one there And you just grab the other one back It's just like variations Uh, depends on how people draw I guess again This is why I don't like trend lines because there's subjectivity to it And you don't want, uh, subjectivity in a place, uh, where there's numbers Because mathematics has no place for subjectivity Only pulling its way down. I mean it's got some lungs here and here and there sort of Throwing a spanner in that sort of squeeze. So they're holding it out pretty nicely. So it might sort of Taylor itself well to uh pushing Pushing off this we'll see The main thing is when it pushes off rather than, uh, if it does Uh, because it just becomes a if it does it early It's more uh chances for us to push and reverse that back down to Seek for that lower point If it does it pretty late where It sort of holds off starts eating into it. Uh, it could then sort of just be about One argument we made for that long and Slim chance, but again still a chance So we never count anything out terms of levels. I mean, which is pretty much trading between them. Nothing so Uh Nothing to say other than that. I mean, it's just moving between these levels Playing pretty nicely. I do say so myself But we probably want it again, we already know that's uh, we Essentially our weak range is it will basically come out to the same because the distance between these levels and the highs how it works out But just sake of argument is There's where that is which ends up being Uh, just slightly different but again pretty similar where it's Within 25 sort of points where it would be here again, like I said, most of these things line up pretty nicely because Uh, because they're usually correct And that would be sort of where we'd look for liquidity. Uh, if we're looking to go up higher again It's a slim chance, but we don't we don't ever want to count out that possibility because If we do count it out and we get blindsided it just leads to impulse trading and that's never where you'd really want to be in life Uh So then we can create ourselves a nice little imaginary picture that okay between here and here Is where we can most likely capture the most amount of longs So if we do find ourselves here after sort of springboarding Uh, we could then look for a potential short up here rather than Uh, the sort of short impulse push That we initially may call for Again, that if it does take its time into building out that short So we split back to book map. It sure it does have a lot of shores, but again, it's sort of muddied with longs and uh, it's not very Clean in that sense and they've been sort of cleared out here and there. So to go up higher it'd require the What we're doing now, uh, which is an increase in, uh For people shorting You can zoom me out more. You can see how these guys got affected again. These guys are less so Important just because we can see that there's been attempts and successful ones at that to create these guys out so we look at our short term ones that haven't been cleared out or has but Not all of it again. We want we wouldn't count on all of them being cleared out We just count on the majority of them just because majority of them will parrot the same, uh, stop And that's why they're such easy targets And this is why you shouldn't follow other people's trades because if you have if everyone has the same stop It's just becomes free money and and the market will change just to target that free money because Who would pass up? Free money I'd be psychotic Especially if your business revolves around you, uh, making money I'm back here. Okay In exact same story with years. We're just looking for it sort of find its way down I think I think I think that ends it here Give a quick once of that gold. It's sort of mellowing out here after that's after those spikes, but Seeing it want wanting to come down. We might get that pushed down as As that interest rate comes in and hopefully if today goes down tomorrow goes higher for the general market and that's my sort of reasoning and that's my sort Just because I'm trying to build a picture for long term of where things will be And how it needs to sort of get there It's very usually set because they have to do They have to move money around and then moving money around is uh, it's not Complicated in the sense that they can't pull some magic out their arse It's more so that you have to do set things and in those set things It creates a fingerprint and it's usually the same thing so It becomes very easy to sort of say, okay, they need to do this this and the third to achieve broader picture that they're looking for And I think with that we can sort of call it a day Hopefully you guys have confidence enough to trade Today it should be relatively easy You guys have now sort of 15 minutes before the market opens before you see that influx of volume And before you see uh On and 45 minutes before them Before you can see any sort of conclusion to Where we may go for the day So take a break take a breather Get a get a thoughts organized Come back look at this smash the day And with that I will leave you guys to it So much for coming trade safe I will catch you guys tomorrow It's the most important day of the week Peace