 Okay, this is Think Tech. I'm Jay Fidel. This is Keeping the World Company We're going to talk about the power of the arsenal facing Israel and the world There are weapons coming from far away Sometimes very close and if this show is as fun as I think it's going to be we're going to make a musical out of it, right? Dean Rosenfeld our esteemed guest and Tim Apichela our co-host welcome to the show you guys so And what we have is you know you watch a war or a couple of wars we got and You try to learn things you learn things not only about what's happening in the war zone But you learn things about what's happening in the world as the world relates to the war zones and in this case We should have been surprised. We are surprised that Hamas has very advanced weapons. They somehow acquired With Iran's help and funding and Iran makes some of those weapons They make kits so that Hamas can make weapons itself in the tunnels We have weapons coming from North Korea. We have weapons coming from Russia, you know the You know the the rifles are what are they? What are they? K-47 a k-47 is the weapon of choice and and all kinds of you know grenades and Missiles and mortars and all that and this is this is not The kind of weapons that terrorists have customarily used This is we're in a new place here a new dawn if you will Where weapons are coming in that are way beyond what terrorists used in the past Then they're coming in from all over the world modern sniper rifles high-tech sniper rifles Paragliders RPGs magnet bombs one way attack drones mini subs landmines anti-tank missiles long-range missiles that I mean really long range that from Hamas in The guys that can strike hypha and even a lot which is on the Red Sea in the south So we have a huge increase of the Variety of weapons the high-tech quality of weapons and I guess they have enough money to buy or build those weapons Maybe some countries supply them with the weapons and it's a new time. Isn't it Tim? well as we discussed in a previous show is really the advent of of drone warfare and Drone warfare really isn't that expensive Those produced in the United States are very expensive, but China and Iran can produce them fairly cheaply and export those and they are exporting them And so there's there's the wrinkle right there is your ability to hit a target and be miles away and not leave much of a signature and Get away and so yeah, it's a new day Yeah, and I was telling you that you know in think tech here. We had a show about drones back in 2015 2016 2017 and the drones were fun they were a kind of toy that you could buy at a toy store and Who could think that the drones could turn into weapons and they have turned into formidable weapons Sheen, you know, have you been watching this? Are you are you following exactly how deadly these weapons can be the drone weapons? Not any more than the ordinary citizen I am not an expert on arms and weapons, but I I can talk to you about proportionality Because that makes a difference Every war is on almost every war now is hybrid because it's not only what plays out on the ground But what plays out on the airways and you have seen how quickly? proportionality has become a big issue in the Gaza war now they are saying that the Israelis first came in with bombs that were way too heavy for precision targeting and There will be a reckoning after this war with both sides and one of the things that Israel is now Vulnerable to in terms of the war on the airwaves and the screens is proportionality well, you know that you really wonder there they are flying their their jet fighters Over Gaza, do they really need to if they had the most modern technology and they could because they're technologically, you know oriented And they have arguably to have the money to buy any kind of weapon then perhaps it would be more precision wouldn't it and You could have guided missiles that would you know hit a target that's very small And avoid all this collateral destruction and damage and so Probably in the future after this reckoning you're talking about Jane We will see the emergence of weapons that are very focused And drones will be a big one. Well, it's very ironic That one of the perceived problems in Ukraine is that we're not giving them big enough bombs And in Gaza, they're using bombs that are too big. This is what is being said now Israel should have access to more targeted precision weapons. It's very advanced Technologically and it has the United States on its side and if anybody has access to weapons, it's the United States We are look we are the most powerful nation in the world militarily We worry about China and Asia Pacific China is a midget compared to us right now And they're scrambling to be a parody with us. Yeah, Tim. Let's talk about cost If I have a I don't know what at f-16 Or an f-35 Flying out there. That's that's hundreds of millions for each one. I think And then if I have big bombs, those are expensive But if I have a drone which is precision or a missile that is precision, it's cheaper, isn't it? Isn't the cost of these weapons that can be used by Hamas and other terror organizations in fact by anybody Isn't the cost going down, you know and drone warfare is the great equalizer Let's look at what Ukraine was able to do against Russia's tank invasion and he completely decimated it and Thanks to drone warfare. Now, did they have that in place before the invasion? Yeah, I think they did because remember the United States was working with Ukraine for years and years basically what since 2014 as far as trying to fortify their military and keep a complete invasion from the Crimean area to into Ukraine so It's a great equalizer. It's pennies on the dollar and You know in the early parts of the Ukraine war They were using, you know, basically I'll use the name radio shack radio shot type of drones that you could buy for a hundred and fifty dollars and You know attach a single Ordnate to it and drop it down a you know down on top of a tank And it seemed to be somewhat effective a hundred and fifty dollars versus a United States drone Which is I believe if I remember the number, right was in the neighborhood of 20 million Yeah, true. We still have them, but you know what it did not as useful anymore and It will probably have better ones in the future This all reminds me of the story of zaps Lattapur. He was of I think it was a four star admiral in the Navy And he was a fire and he got to be very senior because of what happened in the first Gulf War What happened is he went to the he was stationed here He went to the radio shack you mentioned In Kailua and he bought a dish Okay, and he put the dish on the fantail of his ship And every morning they would have a big meeting of the aircraft carrier in the Gulf And he would be ahead in terms of intelligence of anybody else any of the other admirals in the room Why because with the dish he was looking at CNN and CNN was telling him more than the guys in the room knew and People were very impressed with that because it was creative and it used consumer technology And I think there's a crossover between consumer technology, especially high-tech things and and and weapons and War systems, you know and and and that that brings me to AI You know because we're talking about AI all day long on think-tank We've had many many shows about AI and I don't know how maybe one of you guys knows how But I think AI is going to change this paradigm also and the next time you look these weapons I've just read off will be all the more powerful all the more precision Than before using AI What do you think Jean? You've heard of DARPA The organization that brings together brains in the civilian sector. I know somebody who works with DARPA who's an academic and They're they're always way ahead of anything we get in the news and years ago. They were talking about AI and When we have a new technology Traditionally historically what happens like my dad was a radar man in the South Pacific is It goes first the military and has a military use. That's how computers were used to and then later after the war There's this big technological bump in Society because what was used in the war that was tested and bound to be Useful then becomes commercial commercialized So, yeah, I mean the military and DARPA are all into sorts of things that we don't even know about that Yeah, they'll do the dual use development of military Hardware and it can be used in both both those Sectors and we have that and sometimes you don't know so what I what I get out of this Tim is that You know these weapons are Not only for terrorists and not only for Hamas that you need to have weapons like this on both sides and Hopefully in that way you avoid the big klutzy expensive Nuclear weapons at the same time this may be redefining war What do you think well with every war? You find out very soon what technological advances have taken place, but between the last door and the current war You know, I'm thinking of World War one where You know the lining people up in a line That went the way of the Dodo bird. It's you know machine guns change that whole technology of warfare Then we you know, then you went into trench warfare with World War one and the advent of airplanes and tanks really changed the battlefield So that certainly wasn't in place you know years earlier in the in the Civil War course and then World War two You had the advancement of radar and all all sorts of proximity bombs in the air You know each each war brings its own advances. So to answer your question. Yes It's a new again. It's a new game. As I said drone warfare is a cheap solution for Taking advantage of this of the side that doesn't have a lot of resources and a lot of money to for weapons Manufacturing they can they do the best they can with These low-cost type of weapons Yeah, and there's more in the pipeline I remember a few weeks ago there was some news about the Israelis and it's not the first in the country that has designed these things Israelis had designed a laser beam that could shoot things out of the sky. I Don't think they've used it yet, but it's it's probably not too far away from being deployable But I want to go to something that's on the political side of warfare and I I see that play out right now between Hamas and Israel and that's the warfare of public relations and you know growing up We all you know experienced, you know physical confrontations on the playground and throughout your Childhood and there was something called the sucker punch And what that was is when someone went up to someone and the other person wasn't aware and Smacked him right in the face and then ran off and saying oh, oh, you know, he's a bully He's gonna beat me up. I can't defend myself and it usually worked Unless the other guy that got hit got a hold of them and once he got a hold of them the sucker punch defense didn't work So well, but I see that play out right now with Hamas They went into Israel they sucker punched them and now they're playing in front of the camera that you know Oh, you know, we're we're just a small, you know Refugees country that can't defend itself and look at Israel with all its technology supplied from that by the United States and we're being decimated and We're just a victim here. Well that has played out quite well for Hamas and I think we need to recognize it for what it is. There was a sucker punch Well, I think it's deep in history gene. What you know, what about the notion of false flag, right? Isn't that a predecessor to the sucker punch idea? Anything goes and a hybrid warfare now We played out the usefulness of nuclear weapons in war Once we'd be developed them to a certain point and too many people got them now We're sort of at a weird parody We're not parody, but parody Where We can use them Geopolitically for mutually assured destruction to avoid the ultimate weapons and now we know more about The earth and connectivity and the impact and we know that any city hit is not going to survive There's no place to go So we turn to Now we have that one of these historical terms where we don't go forward in Powerfulness with our weapons, but we become more cagey and How war is presented false flag sucker punches becomes a very important weapon We have the weaponization of information and they always say the pen is mightier than the sword. Well, it's true And it's happening now So it's not just that you have cheap drones Accessible to any terrorist movement or state no matter how big or small It's how you present the information is Tim aptly said with the sucker punch. Who's your audience? Who sees it? Who hears it? What's the ultimate narrative? Hmm three things come to mind listening to you guys just that to throw it into the the hopper here Number number one you talk about clever approaches. Think of kakovka dam Where, you know, it's just a few Dynamite charges and they wrecked agriculture in that part of Ukraine It was the Weaponization of the environment the weapon the weaponization of agriculture effectively What a terrible thing to do didn't cost them very much at all and it hadn't been done before very clever stuff The other thing is that the Ukrainians, you know had this plan to blow up Russian ships and they were relying on Elon Musk's low low altitude Satellite system for the internet and he he decided all by himself That he didn't want to see them do that So he cut off at the last minute he cut off the internet And it was a night attack. They couldn't see they couldn't they couldn't locate the ships They wanted to blow up and so their whole fleet wound up a fleet of small boats of motor boats The whole fleet was disabled as a result and I saw a video on this It was really interesting because they were begging him. Please turn it back on and he refused And so what you have is is is the internet as a weapon both pro and con and finally I want to say that there's been footage released recently of the Body cams and that some of the terrorists were using at the time of the massacre and in Gaza near Gaza and and That's a weapon, you know, it's not only, you know, the public relations battle the hybrid war It's the fact that you you you develop you keep you edit you change whatever you know use Use the magic of AI on that video. You can tell any story you want and you can do it with body cams that fit on your helmet or on your shoulder and That's a weapon too, isn't it? So we have all these hybrid weapons feeding into the ordinary kinetic Weapons, you know the classical weapons and in a hybrid war and all of those things play together So that the one who was most clever against the spoils comments Tim again, you know each Technology brings in different tactics of warfare Again, if I were to go back in history look at our own conflict with England and you know, 1776 Guerrilla warfare was seen as a barbaric way to fight and conduct a war on the field Yet, that's how the United States basically had to Prevail and most of those conflicts with the British loaders So they're outnumbered outgunned and so hiding behind trees was more Inventages than lining up in the line every each and every time and Getting getting shot down getting decimated Simply the United States didn't have the manpower. So no different here guerrilla warfare and urban warfare are tactics that Can decimate a stronger force Look at Fallujah with the United States. That was a horrible cost in toll on American troops And I suspect Israel right now is experiencing that in Gaza urban warfare issues, so Okay, well, let me let me go to Eugene, you know, we have what appears to be it doesn't take a lot of research Figure out we have a global arms trade that has gone Recently that has gone to totally global proportions And if you if you go and look it up, you will find you will find the names of the arms dealers Even though their countries may outlaw arms transactions They're on the web and once you get the names, you know, you can find them and you can make deals So I suggest that it's not only the fact that there's more action going on But you know, there will be more action because it's easier to find these people and make deals with them and Transfer the money Cryptocurrency, what have you and and buy arms and have the arms shipped in clever ways to whatever battlefield you want You want to supply seems to me that what we've learned in the Israel war after that matter the Ukraine war Is that there's a global trade like never before you agree? I have no way to measure that no data or evidence on which I can base it I'm sure there are Entities that are following that and informing governments and it's part of intelligence There's so much more going on below the radar now Then we will know until it all comes out if it ever all comes out But what's really interesting to me is that with the advent of the fourth wave of religious terrorism in 1979 which was the year of the Iranian Revolution We have sort of converted to more Low-tech in a sense. We've limited ourselves. We've put more rules around warfare even though it doesn't seem like that We are not using Even small nuclear weapons. We've taken that step away not only small nuclear weapons But new peaceful use of nuclear energy is now Something we stepped away from to address climate change So we are not using our the great scientific breakthroughs of the 20th century in either weapons or peacetime Now think about that. What then do what proliferates? We drop down and suddenly we have this great to new technology Cyber technology and we're using it in space. We're using it in anti Missile missiles that Star Wars that we didn't think would ever happen during the Reagan time We're using it in drone warfare in seagoing Drones that that Ukraine itself has developed We're changing the whole face of warfare and in so doing all of a sudden we're seeing casualties mount amongst civilians And and the big question to me is okay, so we're not bombing cities with nuclear weapons Okay, we're not using them on the battlefield But what's happening? Is it actually true as it appears that civilian casualties are going up and why? Well, that is really an important question if we have so much precision in these weapons How come so many civilians are getting killed as that is really a chilling thought But I saved one very important area for now And it is the United States First of all, we are a big arms dealer And if you look at the list of you know publicly listed arms dealers You find a number of them are in and operating from the United States And you know that has been the case for a long time Just as we have a big arms industry We have a lot of weapons dealers here and and it strikes me just a thought it strikes me that all those Assault rifles okay that are being manufactured by our friends in the NRA Those rifles may not be staying here. They may be shipped overseas Because they're worth a lot you pay one price to buy it here mail order What have you however you get it and then you ship it and I think there must be some people doing that in any event We are a big arms dealer and we have arms dealers That's one side of it. The other side of it is that if you recall in 9-11 there was nothing sophisticated at all They just flew airplanes You know, they they took control of airplanes and flew them into buildings and thus had The result they wanted But in the future There are all these other weapons that I have listed that terrorists can use here Who knows if we're really secure and our borders to prevent that? So what I'm asking is that how much of a threat is that how much of a threat did he see that as? and and What what is the concern going forward? Oh, I don't think he would have taken to the airwaves if he didn't have data to support his claim that There is the increased heightened threat of a terrorist attack as a direct result of the United States support of Israel We do have an open porous border border and it's not even a matter of them bringing weapons across the border It's a matter of get them obtaining weapons here, you know domestically in the United States all terrorists has to do is contact one of the You know white supremacist group and I'm sure there's a whole cache of weapons that would come their way So it all can be purchased right here and right now Yeah, I think it's it's something that Americans need to keep an eye out for in the old saying if you see something say something Be a you know backpack bombs or or whatever The director of the FBI is is very serious about this heightened threat now so Jean, you know you said we stepped aside the world and in part anyway, those countries have Except North Korea. I suppose I've stepped aside from rhetoric pressure to a rhetoric of over nuclear weapons And it's not as likely that we would have a nuclear Conflagration especially the regional war because we have all these other Smaller or high-tech more precision weapons as we have seen But what about chemical warfare? What about germ warfare? Have we stepped aside from those things too, you know a decade or two ago It was a great concern and there was plenty of press over it We haven't seen much about that, but you know, maybe a an aggressive a terrorist would try that now. What do you think? well right after 9-11 by the military and the government whereas extremely concerned about the use of biological weapons and chemical weapons and There were some questions posed to academics about that one of the problems with biological weapons is they have blowback You can't control them that easily. They can blow back on you So they're not an efficient use unless they're used like in a subway system like on Shinrikyo That terrorist group in Japan use them Where it's limited and targeted? So let's put Biologicals aside for a moment. You have to be pretty stupid to use them unless you're looking for total martyrdom Chemical is another story You can attack of water supply and water is becoming a weapon in today's world the The limitation of clean water the limitation of water period we have seen this in the Gaza war So one way they're easier and better ways to strangle your opponent if you're using smaller tight Weapons and using them more creatively you can attack their infrastructure their food their water and Yeah, I suppose you can contaminate their hospitals As long as there's no blowback or contagion you can do that So I'm sure terrorists can get very creative and by the way The result of this Hamas attack using four terrorist groups in the region. They all planned it together Is going to be a lesson for terrorist groups all over the world Not just America that they can get away with something this low-tech and This cheap as well and it can be so effective Yeah, including including people who are either Visiting terrorists or indigenous terrorists are right right here in the United States We could have another terror attack with lessons learned from what is happening in in Israel and Gaza And I guess the question I would put to you Jean in the fullness of history in the fullness of what is going on here I'm asking whether terrorism will come to these shores Oh, and a kind of a payback You know to our support of Israel We're much more on Alert than we were before We have means of counteracting this It's always possible when you have enough arrows coming at you that a few of them are going to come through But It's not necessary to attack a major power like the United States to bring it down all you have to do is use proxies and We have proxies and they have proxies and what's happening right now with what I call a Third World War is their proxies are fighting our proxies and that course the next step up is to attack us directly 9-11 changed the world. I mean we don't say this enough That was more bang for the buck than almost any attack in history in my gorg and We have to kind of sit back and absorb that and I think to a certain extent all of our lives have been limited by that attack We are now subject to a lot more personal scrutiny less privacy and a lot more Herocracy than we ever wanted. Are you saying that the the government such as it is Is keeping up with the risk proof is in the pudding. It hasn't happened since That doesn't mean it can't happen again or somebody won't try it. Of course, they will but usually you notice the people who try it now are lone wolves and The lone wolf theory and technological terrorism is is part of what we're seeing right now because they're kind of unhinged and They have no boundaries but you know terrorist movements are Unfortunately rational we had terrorism before this the American Revolution the Sons of Liberty were terrorists and Likud was a terrorist organization came out of her room and At the Mao Mao in Kenya, they were a terrorist organization that became the government So you see terrorism one man's terrorism is another man's freedom fighter They have rational Means of they they plan these things is this Gaza tax been planned since May of 2021. They told us that Well, that's part of a lesson too that you have to plan it. You have to get your friends together You have to develop your supply lines And so forth. I mean, this is all you could make a playbook Just repeat the playbook and I suggest the playbook could repeat be repeated here And it would be the same playbook It's called the management of terrorism. It is a terrorist playbook that I read many years ago And I was deciphering al-Qaeda you know Tim part of this is is Not just media, but it's social media and it's it's cell phones and It's you know, all the ways we can communicate with each other now It's interesting and one of the issues that Israel was dealing with in Gaza was cut off the communications because if you can do that, then you know you hamper your adversary At the same time though social media and other ways to communicate To allow the lone wolf the gene talks about to become a wolf pack a large wolf pack and you know to me I think that's that's in the wings that could happen. So we have a lot of the elements the ingredients for the development of another 9-11 using more sophisticated weapons using Coordinated attacks in various places remember 9-11 was in like what three places? and It was attempt at a coordinated attack. I think that would they would try that again and so Communications is very important in all this. What do you think? Oh? Absolutely And the thing about communications those surveillance is such a big part of that now. It's it's very difficult to avoid surveillance So you may even see communications going back to old school where there's you know There's a handwritten note passed off to the hand of another individual at least you're not being you know being being detected via Electronic surveillance the FBI direct continuously say our biggest threat is our domestic internal paramilitary groups and You know the proud boys comes to mind or the oath keepers groups like that So who knows? Who knows to what extent they they increase their terrorism Domestic terrorism upon the US government. So we have to keep our eyes open not just for Hamas or Hezbollah But we're gonna have to do as Christopher Ray suggests and that is Really monitor these paramilitary groups in the United States. Yeah, let me add a thought to what we're really talking about here is violence and weapons Where one person can have a weapon and the other person can't or doesn't Choose is not to and the person with the weapon is in charge And I am thinking of you know the trouble with for example Jonathan Karl in his new book About the world under Trump if he is reelected Because Trump would use the same principles on behalf of government he would he would employ the insurrection act against the people and we would have some people holding weapons and other people not holding weapons and Then you turn everything upside down So, you know the old notion that you've been studying for your professional life chain about Terrorism I suggest we can have terrorism on both sides of this issue if we have a Terroristic government. Well, you're talking about something like the rise and fall of the third Reich Which I've been studying for a number of years and published a paper on in 2017 The rise of neo-fascism under the Trump maga banner and flag They're they're right from the playbook. We could accept each culture has its own way of Responding we do have basic human responses You know protect yourself protect your family then protect your community, etc. These concentric circles But we also have a set of What? My Stanford history teacher used to talk about the American character Do we still have enough of that left to make us an exceptional country that people are Dying to come to because they can have More freedom they can have any place else in the world to be themselves people don't surrender that very easily and You know you can still outwit guns with brains It just depends on how you use your brain Well, that that goes through my last question to you guys and that is the Israelis are clever They're into technology. They have things in the pipeline. They haven't rolled out yet They're dealing with problems that they haven't really seen yet. I mean seen before And they're capable of changing their plan changing their approach to things Tim, how do you see them changing their approach? If at all to deal with what they have learned over all these weapons that Hamas has brought into the tunnels. I think Again, I'll use the sucker punch analogy and that is the person who got hit Is going to make a statement. It's going to get a hold of the guy that Sucker punched him and make him pay and show the world that they're going to make him pay And I think that's that's Netanyahu's Modest operandi right now is to show the world that the Israel will not be sucker punched and this is the price You pay for doing such a thing how they change I think is Up to what kind of peace arrangements of chords that are reached or not reached and that will dictate how they behave Israel behaves and and all the other nations around Israel how they'll behave, but you know, how long do these peace agreements last for I don't know But it will change it the playing field will change It just depends to what degree Israel is going to extract revenge on Hamas and the Gaza area Well, that may be part of the change they may change their public relations policy They're rhetoric seeing what what is your answer to the same question? How is Israel likely to change given what it has learned? It's not easy to change the character of a country Israel has a record of Responding the way it's responding now banding together unifying Resolving brave differences coming together because they're so small I mean the narrowest waste in in Israel W. A. I. S. T. Is 12 miles From the enemy or presumed enemy to the sea So they can't afford not to unite and When people are scared they turn to the hammer or the sword and a bigger hammer and a bigger sword is going to produce the same Result, so I think what's going to happen isn't so much going to come I mean, I wish it would come from Israel But I don't know if the Netanyahu government will fall or stand it should fall and what will replace it? I don't know but no matter what side of the spectrum you're on when you're threatened physically You're going to respond physically in Israel to show never again. We are not going to stand down We are going to fight back. That's their attitude. That's their national character We admire them for it in some ways and we don't admire them for it in other ways What's going to change is what the other nations in the Middle East? You want to partner with the United States have peace and prosperity What they are going to do in this situation right now? They're not stepping up to the plate Jordan doesn't want to do anything Egypt doesn't want to do anything Saudi Arabia is looking for its own Best interest We don't know and the United States doesn't have the power to change either the UN is a helpless giant and So I suspect there will be a continuation After the war of an occupation by another government until the world screams loud enough and they have to somehow Concede something I'm gonna take that as your final comment Jean because we're running short on time. What about you Tim? Do you have any final comment you want to make? No, I think Jean did said it best I'd like to see the To see a wholesale change on how the Middle East conducts itself, but I think it'll be business as usual and genes correct I think I think it's gonna be a matter of occupation and You'll have skirmishes as the years to come like we've had seen for many years in the past I I only offer this one shot Wouldn't it be better if we could control the global arms market? Because every time you look at one of these hot spots and one of these places of war crimes and atrocities somebody is feeding weapons into that area and If we could just stop these arms dealers, it would be better. Okay. We're out of time. Thank you very much both Tim Abbacchella co-host and our esteemed guest team Rosenfeld Thank you so much for this discussion and I have decided we are not going to make it into a musical