 So let's talk about one of the wildest, craziest weeks I could remember in a very, very long time. You had a lot of darts, bazookas, grenades, and everything else in between pointed out to trade. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of theAxisandTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody's doing great, right? Hope everybody's doing great. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. Hope everybody was having a great weekend and hopefully your life is working out to all your happiness and all your wish, wants, and desires, and hopefully again in the day everybody stays healthy so they can enjoy another day. As I always say, any day above ground is a good day. So let's talk about one of the wildest, craziest weeks I could remember in a very, very long time. You had a lot of darts, bazookas, grenades, and everything else in between pointed out to trade. If you guys remember, just kind of a quick history lesson. We lost a 20-day, we got to the 50-day, we lost a 50-day, and we had a three-day dead cat bounce, which was very, very, which was very orderly, very ordinary, nothing really crazy about it. And then the day that was leading up to NVIDIA's earnings, we had this really aggressive rally, right? You could see this really, really aggressive rally and we touched the 50-day moving average and always like somebody asked me on one of the videos, hey, Dan, I thought you said it was a dead cat bounce. Yes, it's a dead cat bounce until we reclaim the 50-day moving average. Any bounce in the market below the 50-day supply is a dead cat bounce. Anything above the 50-day is deemed bullish. And we got to NVIDIA's earnings on Thursday's session and NVIDIA blew out their numbers, right? NVIDIA really blew out the numbers, authorized $25 billion buyback and the queues after hours were way above the 50-day moving average. If you guys remember, I recorded that video on Wednesday that NVIDIA saved Christmas. Obviously it was tongue-in-cheek, but it was a scenario that NVIDIA, because of its earnings, because it really destroyed the top and the bottom numbers and authorized that buyback and gave great guidance. The queues were like $3 above the 50-day moving average. The problem with that is we didn't close above the 50-day moving average. If you know what happened on Thursday, we literally gave it all back. Literally gave it all back and we never closed above the 50-day and the candles that ran up on the dead cat bounce, the one channel, the one channel that gave it all back on Thursday negated three days worth of buying in that dead cat bounce. That's how we start the week. We really start the week. We'll talk about that in a second, but the volatility didn't stop there. Everybody was waiting for Jay Powell's testimony to Jackson Hole. Again, he really didn't say it. He really has not said anything in the last year. We know the ramifications. The Fed is monitoring inflation. They're not happy where it is. They're always ready to act. There's always more rate hikes on the table. It's the same language. It has nothing that materialistically has changed in the last year, year and a half. The market really reacted to that volatility. The one thing I always talk about is being prepared on both sides. Every single video, we talk about that. Even though we have a game plan, we believe the data is going to play out like we want, but we always expect that X factor, the unknown. That's exactly what we got on Friday. The only difference is we were prepared for a nasty poem. We'll get to the individual pivots in a second, but you had to think after Thursday's really aggressive, disgusting sell-off, giving back not only the 50-day moving average on the cues but taking down and golfing three days of a dead cat balance. You knew that there was going to be more violence and stored. We talked about this at morning strategy at length. We expected volatility. I expected it to be in much more scalp-oriented, aggressive situations. We waited for that poll. Jerome Powell stopped speaking. We got that poll, and then we had this nasty rally back. If you traded Friday's session, and I think I could speak for everybody who traded in the webinar, the moves are phenomenal. When the pivots confirmed they were phenomenal, but boy, oh boy, if you didn't take your money, $1, $2, 50 cents, 70 cents, whatever it was, the snapbacks were ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous, and it really does show you that you can't just trade one way every single day. Usual days that if I like a pivot, I'll sit in a pivot. If stock goes down, whichever way, let's just use it on the downside. If stock goes down a dollar, I'll take some off. If stock goes down another dollar, I'll take some off, and keep a runner and hopefully get some measure potential. On Friday, we talked about it. Take your money. Take your money. Use break even as you stop because if you didn't, boy, oh boy, the market just took you, put you in a blender and just diced you up because that's how aggressive it was on both sides of the market. I continuously remind the new traders if you don't understand the levels that the importance of every single level of every individual stock that you're looking at, including the Qs, the spies, the IWM, we'll get to them in a second where they are starting the week, you're going to be trading blind. If you don't understand where these supply zones are or I still continuously see random people talk about, well, why do you have all these lines in your chart there and they're irrelevant? I'm doing this nearly a quarter of a century. Trust me, they're not irrelevant. The fact that you think they're irrelevant is the reason why you're trading blind. Don't be naive. Everything's there for a reason. People who trade for a long time, they have these things at their disposal for a reason. It's not there for us to look smart. We're idiots. I'm the king of the idiots. I'm not, trust me, I'm not there to try to predict prices. I'm not trying to guess where the stock is going to be at the closing bell. I'm trying to get the most feasible data, the biggest feasibility study I could have for the day, apply that data with all these lines, supply and demand zones and make sure price action is confirming both supply and demand. That's why all these lines matter. I think the idea of being so egotistical and being so arrogant to think that you're trading two, three years, you have all the answers, you probably don't. You probably don't. You're in your first couple of years in this business. You're in your first inning of your career. Use people who've been in this business for a longer period of time as a reference plane. You need to make fun or question or use snide remarks. Just try to take in everything an experienced trader tells you. You don't have to agree with them. You don't have to like what they say, but at least take it for phase value. Maybe someday something will click and you finally rationalize that maybe your way is not the only way. I understand two, three years of being a trader is this really magic number that you have to understand everything, but you don't. That's the whole point. I didn't get everything until about 10, 12 years into this business. So use every single year, every single week, every single month as a journey, as a trading vehicle and really absorb what professional traders, experienced professional traders in the market is telling you instead of using your bravado to try to impose your will on somebody else. Trust me, another professional trader doesn't care what you think. That's the whole point. Everybody's there to be self-sufficient to take the data that they're seeing off the research that they find. So it's very, very important to soak it all in, be a sponge, and sometimes just watch the market from an unbiased point of view, even if your thesis is wrong, try to really listen and hear what the market is saying. So how do we start the week? We are below the 50-day moving average. That's not a good thing. The ironic part about starting below the 50-day, here's some numbers to start the week. The QQQs are still 36% in the green for the year. However, however, we start Monday $7 below the 50-day moving average. And also, we start $3 below the 5-day moving average. 50 is obviously macro. The 5-day moving average is the shortest term sentiment. So something has to give here. The problem is, again, like we've been talking about all this period throughout the 50-day moving average, the lower we continuously build the base, the higher probability that we will start eventually going lower again. And the only weird part about the setups going into Monday session, there's actually some pretty good setups, which is very, very weird. Usually, when you have a scenario that we are continuously building below the 50-day moving average, you're not going to have a lot of really good-looking or potential good-looking upside setups. But today, eventually, you do kind of here. So let me give you guys a couple of names here. Look at Tesla. I mean, Tesla's been absolutely great. Tesla's getting pretty tight here. You could see this whole channel here. You could see all these ridiculous lines that are unnecessary. There's a reason why the stocks hasn't moved up here because of all these ridiculous lines. So let's talk about it like you're talking to a three-year-old. Tesla needs to get above these little squiggly lines. They do because what's going to happen is if you see all this channel here, this is all distribution and supply. If Tesla could get above this supply and reclaim back the 20 and the 100-day moving average, it could actually wake up. The downside is, again, keep this in mind, it's still building below supply. So you have to watch both sides of the market. You have to watch the top of the channel here to reclaim back the 20. And you have to watch last week's lows if it reclaims back the five-day because if it reclaims back the 20, it actually has room going into the 250s. And the one thing that we actually did see for Tesla going into this week, we actually did see out of the money, out of the money, we think we saw 240, 242.5s, 245s, and 250 calls coming up for this week, which is very, very odd. But again, it doesn't mean it's going to do that. That's why we have to always watch both sides of the market. Look at a name like FSLY, right? Really? And this is a pretty nice-looking chart considering how the market is performed or underperformed in the last three weeks. This is a very beautiful chart. Keep an eye on this thing. This thing starts reclaiming back the top of this Bollinger Man. Maybe this thing can wake up here. Let me give you guys a couple of short names. If you guys remember, we've been, again, one of my favorite setups at the downside from a macro point of view is shorting stocks below their earnings lows to start the next leg down. Just a couple of examples over the last few weeks. We had Snapchat, earnings low got destroyed. We had DOCN, below its earnings low that got destroyed. We had Macy's below the earnings lows got destroyed. You kind of get it, right? On Wednesday, I started shorting urban outfitters below 34. Again, not a huge move yet, but you can see it's starting moved out. So the earnings low plays of working pretty well. Let me give you guys one for possibly this week if it starts to confirm its earnings low. Look at Cargill. Man, look at that setup, right? Look at that setup. Cargill got blown up on, well, it's actually Cargenius. Somebody's like, Cargoo's. Somebody's like, call Cargill. Don't ask me why. But Cargoo's got blown up on earnings and now it's been just going sideways for a month. Again, it doesn't necessarily have to confirm this week, but watch this thing below the earnings lows. If this thing starts losing the earnings lows, it could start a really aggressive, it could start a really aggressive multi-move down. So keep an eye on that. AFRM, AFRM had nice earnings, had really nice earnings. Keep an eye on this thing for this week. It doesn't necessarily have to do it on Monday, but keep an eye on it for this week for a potential continuation from Friday's move. Really, really good move on AFRM on earnings. So that's that as well. And Disney, right? Disney had this really aggressive move down, had an inside day on Friday, basically rested. It was down three and a half on Thursday up 80 cents on Friday. Keep an eye on Disney this week. If this thing confirms Thursday's low, this thing can get hit as well. So let's talk about some of the pivots on Friday. Again, we just sat there. I know I didn't want to buy anything into strength, again, because when you have this much volatility and you have a potential violent event as Jay Powell testimony, you're going to wait for this guy to shut his lips and wait for the next measure, next moves. And we were ready, man. We were definitely, definitely ready. We had a bunch of pivots to the downside. And again, here we go. We started up one by one UPST. Again, not all of them had major moves, but you could see the violence and especially how aggressive the market was. So UPST 29.93, if it builds below, can flush. Here was UPST, right? It took down to 29.93. Traded down to 29.30s. This is the lowest close in the whole formation. Still looks lower for this week. TDOC, nice move, 47 move on a $21 stock. $21.92, if it builds below, can flush. It was TDOC. It took down that 22.90s when oiled down. This is a fake print. I never got the 21.20s. I know I covered it. I covered, my lowest cover was about four or five cents from the lowest. I know for a fact that income to 21s. But nice, you know, nice move there. And then the rest, I got stopped that break even. Tesla never got down to 228. Q's, 361, if it builds below, can flush. You could see the aggressive nature of what happened here. Check this out. Just to give you an example how really aggressive Friday was. So they lose, they lose right here, this 361, right? They lose this 361. They go down all the way down to 358, right? You see that guys? Loses 361, goes down to 58. And if you didn't take on the way down, OK, or use break even as you stop, Q's reversed and went all the way back to 365 and then gave back $2 on the close. So the violence on Friday was, if you didn't trade on Friday, it's very, very tough to put into words. AMD, I don't think you put in a big move. AMD, 187, if it builds below, can flush. I didn't trade AMD. I think it only, yeah, it went down $1. I didn't trade AMD. If you got it, good job there. It only went down a buck. I thought it went down less. Amazon, 3115, if it builds below, can flush. Here was Amazon. It got down right to this 3050s, which is the 100-day support. This is obviously the line in the sand. Amazon starts losing 3050s this week. It's going to go lower. Again, not everything was a big move. Meta got killed. I traded Meta twice. Meta got absolutely killed here. 286, if it builds below, can flush. I mean, went down at one point, down about 10. It lost its whole range, lost a five-day moving average, got really, really hit. Let's see what, I know Nvidia got hit as well. Nvidia, Nvidia's 36880, if it builds below, can flush. That's an understatement. Nvidia, ever since it came out with earnings, just has, you know, it's basically sold off from roughly almost 520 pre-market to only 550. So I'm going to 70-point sell-off here. Watch this in Nvidia for this week. I want to watch this thing below the 10-day moving average if it starts violating Friday's lows. So that was a big, big move on Friday. Disney, we're still watching, didn't confirm. And that is it. So incredibly aggressive, violent day. Again, if you look at all the indexes, the queues begin the week. Below the 50-day moving average, not a good thing. Needs to get above back. Again, we need to close above 371. Nvidia did a great job, got everything there pre-market. And just the market never closed above and the bulls failed to reclaim the 50. But we start below the 50-day moving average on the queues. The spies, we are below the 50-day moving average on the spies. And the Russell, they just never rallied. The IWM guys never rallied. Right down this area here, okay? It stopped at the same area. Guys, write this down for the IWM going into this week. 181.60, that's the line in the sand. If the IWM starts losing 181.60, I mean, they never rallied. The Russell never rallied. So, you know, this thing starts losing 181.60 for all you guys who trade ETFs. This thing could really start escalating down. So guys, awesome. Thank you very much. I really appreciate all your help, all your support. If you're brand new to the channel, all we ask you to do is like, share, subscribe. Give us a thumbs up. It'll help the channel grow. It'll help to spread the word of unbiased technical analysis. Guys, have a great, great, wonderful week for all you guys who are joining us in the live webinar this week. Look forward to meeting you guys. Look forward to working with you guys. And hopefully, everybody is there with God's help. Guys, have a great, great Sunday. Take care.