 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. I'm in a crazy mellow mood until about an hour from now that I drive to my son's basketball tournament. That's going to change very quickly. Anyway, hope everybody's doing great. Hope everybody's having a great weekend. A lot of stuff going on the market. I've always maintained this. Everybody tries to convince you, especially during this social media craze, how intelligent they are, how much they know, how savvy they are, where things are going to go. And I'm going on my 24th year. And the one thing that I've realized years and years and years ago, and it's pretty obvious, I'm an idiot, big idiot, probably as I self-proclaimed myself, the king of the idiots. And because I am the king of the idiots, I found out a long time ago what's important in trading and what's not. So if you're an investor, investor and a trader are two different things. It's like, you look at a zebra, you look at a racehorse. Yeah, they kind of look alike, but there's a big difference. One's a zebra, then they have a mule, then you have a racehorse. They're kind of the same, but they're way different. And each of them has a function. If you're an investor in the market, things like knowing that FOMC hiked 75 basis points, they're probably going to go look for another, what, 50 to 75 in September. I think these are important things as an investor, right? You kind of want to know where interest rates are. You kind of want to know, at least you want to be in the know where the GDP is and the CPI and the PPI and the ABC and the LSD, whatever the hell your drug choice is, right? But if you're a trader, your only mission is to take information based on technical analysis and apply it to the next day. And the most important parts we've been seeing now for the last several weeks is sentiment and technical confirmation. And again, if you've been watching this channel, even for, let's just say the last six, seven months, we would pretty much sell by us. And again, this is the whole point, guys, this is the next time it falls into your lap, you understand, you don't have to fight somebody, honest, right? The 50-day moving average is super important. Nothing good happens below the 50-day moving average. Usually nothing bad happens above the 50-day moving average. So you can see here, once we lost the 50-day moving average going back into March, we had a big, big decline, very aggressive decline, periods of time that we did rally, but ultimately only to lose face right back at the 50-day moving average until last Friday or two Fridays ago, right? On 7.19, we finally reclaimed the 50-day moving average and started this cycle the higher. Yeah, we had a little bit of retracing back to the 50-day moving average, but we held that 50-day moving average. And if you're coming from an investor's side, you might have your doubts, right? Is this the lows? Is this just the dead cat bounce, right? Dan, what do you think about treasuries correlating with the inverse effect of gold and crypto and my dog's poop? Okay, maybe that's important in your life. When you're a trader, all these things mean nothing to me. The fact that idea that the second quarter GDP came in negative last Thursday, cool, right? That's CPI and PPI are going to be available for next week, and this one's talking and that one's talking, cool, right? We're traders. The most important thing we need to know is what happens next, the highest probability of what happens next. And if you are a trader, then you get it. If you're an investor and you're having this conversation that you should be having with another investor with a trader, number one, we're looking at you like you have 12 heads, like you're asking this, where do I think the PPI is going to come in next week? I don't know what a PPI is, right? I don't get it. I'm not supposed to get it. I don't want to get it. I've been doing this for 23 years. Somehow I still, I made it to this point. I don't need to get it. It's like for all you guys who watched Married with Children, remember that old show, Married with Children? Kelly Bundy was studying for sports trivia. And the more information she got in her brain, the less she retained, that's me. I'm Kelly Bundy. The more information I get, the least I get. I don't want it. Okay, I don't want it. The only thing that matters to me is, here's the data. We need to get to above supply, buyers clean up sellers. We go higher. Here's the data. Here's demand. If sellers clean up buyers, we go lower. And if you're sitting there right now, for the last two weeks, and you're worried about the PPI and the CPI and the LSD, and this, this, this, and the other thing, everything that you cannot control, literally everything that you not control that you're sitting there, you know, sitting there putting so much time and effort and so much energy trying to discuss, well, I think the Treasury is going to be two point basis pump. You're really missing a really wonderful effect here. And that's called a very aggressive bull market. And the most important part is this bull market has only been around for two weeks. That's it. We've been selling off for seven months. Before that, we rallied for seven years. And the greatest part about this is it's only happening for two weeks. Again, is it going to go straight up? Absolutely not. We've seen this big move up retracement back to the 50 day moving average, big move up. But the biggest clues, and that's the most important part you want to get as a trader, you want to get as many clues as possible. For us this week, you could clearly see where the sentiment was. You had Walmart pre-announcing really bad earnings, right? They cut their forecast. And they went down, the market went down with them. And if you look at Walmart where it is right now, Walmart is literally, Walmart's literally 10 cents away from what was before it pre-announced, right? That's bullish. They're taking bad news, negating them and going higher. You had Microsoft this week, miss on top and bottom lines. They didn't care, right? They didn't care. The only thing they cared about is getting it above this top of the range here and pushing it through. And now it has room to 284, 285, right? That's bullish, taking bad news, okay? Not overthinking it, taking where the price action is telling you, telling you where the range is happening and confirming that range. That's bullish. The same day you had Google, okay? Same thing, missed on the top, missed on the bottom. They didn't care. That's where we are right now, okay? Stop overthinking if this is the bottom. Oh, it's going to retest the bottom. You're missing the parade. If you're sitting there for the last seven months before we claimed the 50-day moving average and talked about buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip. And now you're talking about the markets overbought. We're two weeks into a range that we reclaimed two weeks ago after a seven-month decline. How can we, again, we said this a week ago. How can you possibly think we're overboard? It doesn't make any sense, okay? So a lot of traders are going to be sitting there right now over the weekend and start looking at all these different things going in for next Friday. Even Friday is hotter than expected inflation readings, including the Fed-favored PC. What the hell does that even mean, right? Well, all we want to know is the market going higher? Is the market going lower? Is the stock taking out the range? Is the stock breaking down the range? Is it defending the range? What is happening next? What is happening in the next couple of hours with the option fall market? Are they coming in with short-term exploration, deep out of the money calls? If these, there are all checkmarks, right? And you know they're negating bad news. How can you sit there and call yourself a productive trader wasting your time of events that you cannot predict, okay? You're waiting for a possible event, a retest of a level that you have no, it's completely out of your hands, right? Who's to say we're going to retest the lows, right? Who's to say we're going to retest the highs? Every single day is based on the previous day's research. That's all it is. Once we knew we reclaimed 296.75, that was the green light. There was nothing else. I didn't care about PCE, RBE, anything in between. That was the key level. And once they started taking up stocks on earnings they were disappointing and going higher. What other evidence do you possibly need? So guys, especially for new traders, just I get it. The more you understand the better you'll be. You'll make more intellectual decisions. You'll make better adult decisions. But just keep this in mind. If you're a trader, okay, you're trading on a day-to-day basis. Yes, you might have an opinion going into this week. Like I have an opinion going into this week. Obviously we're bi-biased, right? We had a big run again. We go down for two, three days until we retest the five, 10-day moving average on a Bactus, of course. That's called a healthy market. But as long as we stay above the 50-day moving average, that's all you need to know. That's it, okay? We close above, continue to close above. We can continue to go bullish. And if we slip, right? And if we slip and we close below the 50-day moving average, then like the same conversation that we had right here, right? Then you rip out your buy button. Then it's not a buy-the-dip scenario. You've closed below demand. That's a sell signal, okay? So unfortunately, guys, I get it. Some of you guys are trading one, two, three years. You haven't seen everything. You haven't heard anything. You're still trying to find your way in this business. You're trying to still figure out if you are a day trader, if you are an investor. You know, what are you? You don't even know what your personality is. That's okay. That's fine. But don't overthink, right? Just don't overthink. Take technical analysis at phase value. Listen to what the stocks are telling you. Again, think about this guy. Just think about it. Microsoft and Google basically guided lower, okay? And they're exploding, especially Microsoft. That's all you need to know. You don't need to know where the Fed is going to be three months from now and where we're going to be three months from now. Prepare for Monday, right? One day at a time, one traded time, and just be open to everything, okay? The smartest guy in the room is usually not trading for a very, very long time. They're trying to defend their position with other traders that have not trading for a long time. To make sure they're right. Nobody cares about being right, okay? All we want to do is be responsible, is be fiscally responsible with our decision making and letting things play out organically and letting things play out technically. So again, we don't know what's going to happen with September with Feds. I don't know what the GDP, the third quarter GDP looks like. Okay? I don't know where interest rates are going to be, you know, 30 seconds from now. Control what you can control. Don't worry about the things that you can't control. Stop predicting. Stop waiting. Stop waiting. Take advantage. We're in a great, great bullish cycle as of right now. Again, anything changes. We could easily fall back below the 50-day moving average. But at least let the market do that for you, okay? Let the market do all the heavy lifting for you and stop guessing. Stop being smart. Trade the price action you have and not the price action you think you want or you think you're about to get. That's it. Pretty simplistic thing. Other than that, King of the Idiots. That's just my opinion. Other than that, let's talk about the tape. Super aggressive action. Again, we had literally earnings all over the place. The only ones that really disappointed was Meta. You know, as far as price action goes, everything else, Apple went nuts. Still like Apple, you know, going higher. Amazon went nuts. Still like it going higher. You know, you have names like example, like Roku. And I said this, you know, why was Roku different? Again, nobody knows where Roku is, okay? Unless you physically have a Roku. I don't know this Roku. Like I don't know. There's no reason for me to have a Roku. What the hell is a Roku? Right? You have all these smart TV. Like what is a Roku? So is it, look, is this a name that might go to $30 or might go back to $200? Who knows, okay? But the stocks that are irrelevant, the companies that are irrelevant, those are the names that are kind of being disgusted, right? And kind of thrown to the wolves if they have bad earnings. But companies like Walmart, companies like Apple, companies like Microsoft, they're getting the benefit of the doubt because this is a macro global issue and not just them. So a really aggressive market. NASDAQ up, you know, nearly 5% for the week. You know, if you've been watching this broadcast this week, I mean, Pivot's everywhere. You know, you have Tesla just went absolutely nuts. It looks like there's one more day. Maybe you could push this 9-10 level before it gets a little bit of a breather. Stocks are coming out of ranges all over the place. And that's the key right now. You know, you don't want to, you know, concentrate on the names that already had the big runs. Like Microsoft, the only value you have now is waiting for a dip. You know, is Microsoft probably getting to 284, 285 this week? Yeah, absolutely. But look at the run it have, right? Right now you want to concentrate on these names, right? Names like NVIDIA coming off the tight channel. Names like Airbnb, right? They're coming out of a tight channel. Names like Google who finally reclaimed the top of the supply. And this is the highest level of close for possible move to 1920, right? You want names like this. You want names like Square. Like, you know, again, I want to check where earnings are in a couple of these names. But you want to, again, you want to get tight channels. Because again, if you're going to be wrong, be wrong at levels that you know are significant. That if those levels get rejected, get out. You know, get out with a skinny. Why buy, you know, why buy Square up here and have this when you could buy Square here and possibly get a paper cut, right? So again, it's the theory, again, if you've been watching this for a long time, it's the theory of jump out of the first floor and not out of the tent. It's very simplistic as far as just understanding dynamics. And again, keep this in mind. We've been only building above the 50-day moving average for two weeks. So it's not like every stock is overbought. Yeah, Microsoft is a little extended. Apple is a little extended. They'll probably go higher. But again, we want the ones that are coming out of deep consolidation, big areas they need to reclaim. And if they reclaim those levels, then, yeah, then they could turn into Microsoft's, the Teslas, and the Amazons because they're coming out of, they're coming out of a channel and they're coming out of a channel in a very, very good, strong, organic market. So let's talk about Friday. I mean, it's pretty simple. Look, you see a lot of people pounding chess and trying to explain to somebody that they're doing something magnificent. We're in a bull market, man. Anything that comes out of a channel is going to run. You're not doing anything special. Your foundation was built in the last seven months when you were sell bias and you were selling every single rally and getting rejected at every single area of supply. That's where you made your bones. This is kind of your reward. This is really all those months of putting in tireless hours of charting, of going behind the scenes, of backtesting, all that stuff. This is your reward. This is what a bull market looks like. So don't sip your own Kool-Aid. Especially don't sip anybody else's Kool-Aid. Nobody's doing anything special. This is just a very aggressive bull market right now. Is it going to end one day? Who knows? Is it going to keep on going? Who knows? But enjoy it, right? Keep focus on the day-to-day on a chart to chart. One trade at a time. That's all it is. It keep your feet grounded. Because if you start sipping your own Kool-Aid, man, it's going to end really, really bad. Just ask all those people from 20 to 21 that were just... And as soon as the market went into bear mode, cash is a position, bro. Cash is a position. Okay. Cash is a position. So anyway, let's talk about Friday's session. A lot of names came out. Ranges, a lot of names continue their ranges. And a lot of names that just closed above their ranges. And I really still really like on going into Monday Tesla. Again, Rockstar, it came out with earnings earlier in the week. Early last week, put in the high of 842. Retraced. Again, it took out 825. It took out 842. The earnings highs. And here's the big number right here. 850. 850 needs to build. Tesla's Tesla. I mean, what are you going to do? Tesla is absolutely Tesla. It closed in almost 900. I think there'll be one more push into this like 9, 10 area before it rests. Okay. That's going to be the high before it rests. You can see a big, big move. Here's the area of a little bit of a goal line. So going into Monday, any dips into rising 60 minute support you want. And obviously, if it starts building above yesterday's channel, we could probably still get another 10, 15 points out of it. So let's keep an eye on Tesla for that last leg, at least in this interval, but phenomenal move. Congratulations for all you guys who took it. On the video, I really, really like going into this week. The longer it keeps on building above 8150, it should be good. This is the highest close into the range. This is the first, it kind of confirmed, it kind of confirmed right in the afternoon. So you can see how much room you have. I have to check earnings. I believe earnings are in a couple of weeks. I think they're in ninth. I could be wrong. But if NVIDIA starts building above Friday's channel, it has room to 87, 89. I really, really like NVIDIA still. Roblox, not a big move. 43 needs to build 44, 50 big level if it gets there. Only ran up about, I think we only ran up about 70 cents. Nothing big. Nothing big there yet. But you could see here, it took out this channel here. I still like the macro area here at 44, 50, but it only ran up about 80 cents. Not a big move there. Google looks great. This is the first close. You see this, here's more important notes. 1540 highest price into supply needs to confirm macro, 1540. The reason why 1540 was the highest number into supply, it was this candle here. You see it, right? It was this candle here that got stuffed into supply and then rolled over. So Friday finally got above this 1540. So this is the highest close in this whole interval here. Closed, you know, closed about a dollar higher. If this thing confirms Friday's channel, this thing has room to 18, 19. Remember, earning is already out of the way. I really like Google going into this week. Not a bad move on Twitter and that, you know, a little scalp on Twitter, not really my thing, but 40, 90, 41 needs to build. Again, with all the going on with Elon and this one and that one. Look, I still think it probably sees 42.5, 43. Here's the whole channel right here, this whole 40, 90 channel. Closed pretty much at the highs, went to 41.80. That was kind of our target. The only reason why, because it's that Bollinger Band here in the 60 minutes, we kind of knew it wasn't going to be a big move on Twitter, but it's so far so good. I still think this thing sees 42.5 this week. AMD exploded, 92.25 needs to build. Here was AMD, right? Here's 92.25 went right to supply here at 95. This thing starts building 95.96. I think this thing has a shot at 98 initially then like 101, 102. So AMD continues to look great check earnings. Just make sure you check earnings before you buy these things. Etsy never gave a second entry. Stopped right at 107. I still like it this week. Maybe just probably just rested on Friday. Yeah, like I said, 94.95 next stop. Stopped right at 94.80. Twitter, 41.37. And then of course, you know, Tesla, right? What are you going to do? 864, 868 next supply. It obviously hit both and extended all the way, extended all the way to in the mid 90s. Again, I think still think Tesla has one more shot around 910 area. Airbnb I still like triggered right into Friday's afternoon. 110 rejected two times daily needs to build and coming for the August 5th 112 calls. Beautiful close on Airbnb, right? This is the highest close in this whole formation here. Took out the 110 traded to like 111 and change. I think I think this thing expands this week if the market continues to be good. Meta guy set an alert on Meta. You know, again, I don't care about opinions. Here's the number, right? 154 and a quarter. That's all you need to know. You don't need them to worry about virtual reality, the metaverse, zock, schmuck, fuck. Excuse me, right? That's all you need to know. You just want to watch the bottom of this channel here, right? All you need to know. If Meta starts losing 54, that's all you need to know. You don't need to speak to somebody in your opinion and fight anybody on social media. That's it. 54. It's either going to break down below 54. It's not one or the other, right? That's what's cool about technical analysis. And that is it. So look, a very, very strong market, guys. Incredible, good action. Just again, keep this in mind. Don't overthink the tape. You're going to miss a great parade. Like I've been saying this for years. People are sitting there for hours at a time. Tesla sucks. Tesla is great. Tesla is the deliveries in Zimbabwe are light. The deliveries in, you know, Hungary are phenomenal. Trade the price action. You sit in there so many times, and it's just battling your brain about social, you know, about things that you cannot control with people you'll never meet. And it doesn't make a difference if you're right or wrong. Nobody's going to remember you, okay? Just keep your eyes on the prize, right? You're missing a good, you're missing good value by being pigheaded and trying to convey and trying to convince yourself that you're right. You don't need to be right. You just need to be profitable and you need to stay in business. Guys, God bless. Have an awesome week ahead. If you're joining us in the webinar this weekend, please use today to kind of go through the workshop. There's a lot of moving parts. We're the only ones to kind of trade this way. So it's a lot of stuff, a lot of moving parts that it's very, very important to understand. Guys, God bless. Everybody have a great Sunday. Have an amazing trading week and I'll see you guys on the video tomorrow. Take care.