 I'm an idiot, but I'm not stupid. And I've seen what happens when markets come in. Maybe the market rebounds this week. Friday was the low, and we're having a pure bias, long bias conversation two weeks from now. But until that happens, again, I'm not in the guessing business. You shouldn't be either. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccidentTrader.com. We can update show. Hope everybody's doing well for all you guys who are in the Northeast. We got hit with a pretty decent storm yesterday. They were talking about crazy numbers here, a foot, foot and a half. I think we got like five or six inches. Not a big deal, which is good, which is absolutely a good thing. The last thing we needed was this monster whiteout to kind of destroy our whole weekends. Hopefully you guys are staying blessed, staying healthy. The most important thing is staying healthy. And for all you guys who continue to put in the work, just again, have faith. Everybody starts out the same way. Nobody's born into this business. Everybody starts out the same way. Put in the work, put in the manpower behind the scenes. Whatever you put in, you're gonna take out of the market and there is no accidents. There's no corners. There's no magic formula. It's technical analysis. And that's the name of the game. And no matter how you trade, the one thing that we all have in common is these charts. And they all look exactly the same way, the same way I'm looking at it today. You're looking at it today and everybody else is looking today. The question is, are you trading in reality or you're trading in your reality? And that's kind of the most important part of which way the wind is gonna blow for your specific reality. So let's talk about the technicals, right? So when I looked at the scoreboard, I started charting yesterday as you can imagine, had a lot of time on my hands as it was snowing. And I looked at the final scoreboard and I go, the NASDAQ was flat? How's the NASDAQ flat? And obviously we had this really good aggressive rally because of Apple. Apple is the number one component and weight on the S&P and the NASDAQ 100. So you can see the powerful session Apple had yesterday really, really aggressively and not only had a really big earnings day, it reclaimed a 50-day moving average, right? This is obviously a good thing and it took up the market with it and it was very, very nice way for I think a lot of traders, especially bull investors, permeable investors, to kind of have that at least one good close so they can have something to hang onto going into Monday's session. But from the point of pure unbiased technical analysis, again, we always have to play devil's advocate. So here's kind of my take, right? So the questions always are because so many people have never traded in a bear market. Remember, there's been bear markets throughout the last 20 years have been very, very aggressive. Again, 2001 to 2003, 2007 to 2009 and that one big massive bear market from the March pandemic of the 2020. Remember that one, the worst month ever and all of a sudden April of 2020 was the best month ever but all jokes aside, most people have not traded more than two, three weeks of sell signals, right? Sell bias. And the first thing they ask is, well, is this the bottom, right? Is this the bottom? The market is oversold, is this the dip? Can I finally buy stocks? Guys, always remember one thing. And if you can't explain, if you can't explain technical analysis, the most simplistic purest form to an eight-year-old, to a 10-year-old, to a 12-year-old, then it's probably a little bit too complex. So here's the way I kind of talk about it, right? And again, remember, I'm not a bull, I'm not a bear. I'm a realist and opportunist and I trade on both sides of the market. It doesn't make a difference to me which side. So here's the question I have to kind of put it into the most basic terms, right? If a stock breaks out above the 50-day moving average, let's just call it the 50 because 50 is usually the most basic upward bias area that you can reclaim to the upside that will give you a very good sustainable move two, three weeks, two, three months, whatever the case may be. So if a stock breaks out above the 50-day moving average, it closes there and the next four out of five days, it's green, right? The stock goes up four out of five days. On the six-day, would you turn around and say, well, this is the top, I want to short the stock, right? It can't go any higher. Probably not, right? Think about it, most basic thing. Let's flip the equation, okay? The 200-day moving average is the mother of all support. Okay? So if we close below the 200-day moving average once, that's bearish, okay? There's no, I don't think even the biggest bull can turn around and say that's a good thing. So let's pretend, or we don't have to pretend, right? The next five out of seven days close below the 200-day moving average based on flipping the chart around from a stock breaking out of the 50-day moving average, four out of five days, that's bullish. So now we have five out of seven days closing below 200-day moving average, okay? So that's kind of my point. Charts are the not subjective. They start a trend, okay? Those trends could last for a couple of weeks. Those trends could last for a couple of months. We don't know, we're not fortune-tellers. I'm not in the business of trying to guess. But what I am in the business of is trying to gather as much data as possible. So I know for a fact, when a stock breaks out, right? Here's the 50-day moving average. When a stock breaks out above the 50-day moving average and starts reclaiming higher prices supply, it's a runaway trend to the upside. So when the stock, or in this case an ETF, closes below the mother of all defense levels and puts in five out of seven days of downside action below support. And that's my point, guys. You don't need to guess, okay? You don't need to guess. You don't need to try to convince yourself the stock is cheap, a stock can't go lower. It can go lower, of course it can go lower. Now again, Monday morning, and ironically we'll get to this in a second. I actually think there's a shot of a day two rally going into tomorrow, I'll talk about in a second. But when you look at the dynamics of something, the biggest picture, ask yourself the same question in a fair, reasonable, unbiased way. If a stock breaks out above supply, is that bullish? If the answer is yes, well then you have to ask yourself the flip question. If the stock breaks down below support, is that bearish? So if you close your eyes and close your ears and start hitting your feet and start throwing a tantrum, right? It's not gonna help you. It's either bullish or it's bearish. And sometimes you gotta take a step back to really look at somebody else's point of view or just look at the technical point of view and make a decision. Now again, here's another question and I get this question a lot. Well, it doesn't matter. It's a great company, okay? I don't care it's below the 200 day moving average. In five years, the stock will go higher. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. But the question is, are you trying to convince me that it's the right thing to do? Are you trying to convince yourself? Here's a case in point. Let's go back to the internet craze, right? Let's take a look at leaders in the internet craze. So here's a chart of Intel, okay? We're gonna go all the way to the internet craze, right? So here's the internet craze. Internet craze, again, by the way, only lasted 15, 18 months. Don't think for a second it lasted five years, 15, 18 months. So Intel fell below the 200 day moving average. This was 21 years ago, okay? Below the 200 day moving average. It was Intel. It was the mother of all semiconductors, one of the leaders of the technology space. Oh, it's a gift below the 200 day moving average. It's a gift, it's a gift. It's free money, it's free money. It hasn't, this has been 22 years guys, okay? This has been 22 years. This is Intel, right? Intel is nowhere close to where it broke down during the internet craze. Look at a company like Cisco, right? Cisco, same thing, okay? The leaders, networking stock, okay? One of the leaders of the internet craze, okay? This is a gift, this is a gift. This is 22 years that Cisco hasn't recovered. So my question is again, there's plenty. Corning was one of the leaders, right? Corning was one of the leaders during that time. There's a bunch of names. It doesn't make a difference. There's a bunch of names. Corning, look at Corning, right? This is one of the greatest high flyers, look at Corning. Corning is down probably about 85% in 20 years. So my point is, are there going to be companies that are gonna survive? Microsoft survived, Apple survived. You can turn around and say, well, Dan, Amazon's gonna survive. Yeah, probably well, probably well. But you can't be naive to think that if a stock is underneath the 200 day moving average, it automatically has to go higher because traditionally, you believe it has to go higher. Nothing has to happen, guys. And that's the most important thing. I'm not trying to scare anybody. That's just kind of the reality. You can go through chart after chart after chart during the internet craze, arguably, the greatest boom of anybody's career. And you kind of apply it to now the last five years. A similar boom. So my point is, if 85, 90% of the companies didn't survive that first pull from the internet craze is, well, why do you think your random stock that you just bought underneath the 200 day moving average that you're trying to convince somebody else, well, don't worry, it's gonna come back. Yeah, maybe it will, maybe it won't. But my question is, if you think the stock is gonna be higher, okay, why not wait till it gets above the 200 day moving average, right? To start buying it? Like again, every company trades. Every company will go up, every company will go down. But most companies didn't deserve to be up where they were to begin with a couple of years ago. So my question is, why do they deserve to get back to those levels? And again, maybe they do, maybe they don't. But the prudent thing to do, the prudent thing to do, if you think Amazon, for example, is gonna go to 5,000, it probably will, right? It probably will. Why not at least wait till it reclaims the 200 day moving average, right? What's the difference? What's the difference if you're buying the stock above 3,100 on a closing basis? Or you're long the stock at 2,879? Here's the difference. Above 3,100 on the 200 day remount, the stock breaks his whole downtrend. If the market continues to go lower, maybe it will, maybe it won't, okay? Amazon could go to 1,700 and still be okay. And the question is, what happens first? Are you going to be right? Or are you going to stay solvent? It's a very, very fair question, okay? It has nothing, again, I don't care. Anybody wants to buy stocks at any place, it's your money. You don't got to convince me. You don't have to write in the comments, well, this is a gift, you don't know, yeah, it's cool. That's cool, I'm an idiot, remember that, remember that. First and foremost, I'm an idiot. But I do know, okay, I'm an idiot, but I'm not stupid. And I've seen what happens when markets come in. Maybe the market rebounds this week, Friday was the low, and we're having a pure bias, long bias conversation two weeks from now. But until that happens, again, I'm not in the guessing business, you shouldn't be either. God doesn't care about your position. If you sit there underneath your desk praying every single day that your stock keeps on going lower and lower and lower, I give you my word. Again, they're kids born into third world countries, no running water, into disease, into tuberculosis, into everything. God does not care about your position. I've said it before, and I said it again. It's all about technical analysis. It's all about the closing basis. And if your stock is meant to go higher, doesn't it need to at least reclaim supply? It's a very, very fair question. When you sit back and analyze what charts are for, the directional bias where they can go, it's all in front of us, guys. It's not a trick. Nobody's trying to convince you of anything. You want to buy stock below the 200-day moving average? God bless, right? It's your money, you earned it, you deserve it. But again, you have to live what happens next. Maybe you're right, maybe you were wrong, or remember, we're not in the maybe business. So let's talk about the week. Fantastic ranges to the downside. Really good, even to the upside. Even before, Tesla was basically the whole week for me. I was all over Tesla. I mean, it's my favorite stock anyway. It's been a phenomenal, phenomenal stock. After earnings, before earnings, Friday, there was breakdowns, there were breakouts all over the place. So Tesla, you're probably going to see a lot of really good action in the next couple of weeks because now that earnings are out of the way, everything is going to be exaggerated. The average true range is going to be exaggerated. But we still have a full slate of earnings coming up this week. Tuesday kicks off another batch. You have AMD, you got Google, you got PayPal, you got Starbucks, Gilead and General Motors and UPS and MSTR and match.com and all that stuff. And you got Facebook and Qualcomm and Spotify. And then you got Amazon and Snapchat throughout the week. So you're going to have a lot of guidance. You're going to have a lot of guidance. You're going to hear a lot, see a lot of noise through the technology space. And it's really going to give us a pretty good glimpse of what happens next. And I won't say this much. As much as we are seven days below the 200-day moving average, at least to the bull's credit, you turn around and say, well, this is the first close, first close, above the five-day moving average, taking out the previous day's highs. That's actually a bullish thing. No matter where we are macro-wise in a bearish cycle, that's actually a bullish thing. So if you believe the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply, well, now that we had the highs close in this whole formation, why can't we rally, have a day-to-rally for Monday, right? Have a day-to-rally for Monday and have a maybe a nice extensive move because everything's so exaggerated all the way back to the 10-day moving average. That's on the table. So ironically, going into Monday, even though we're still seven days below the 200-day moving average, and I know to have a risk-on scenario for macro, we still have to reclaim the 200, but again, it's baby steps. We're not trying to predict the future. I don't know where things are gonna close on Monday. So we're just trying to go baby steps on the data. The data says Friday's close, whether it was synthetic, it was organic, whether it was robotic, the close is the close. The scoreboard is the scoreboard, and we did remount and reclaim the five-day moving average. So going into Monday, I actually kind of, you know, I'm gonna give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for like the first hour. That's it, okay? Because again, macro was still bearish, but I will give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for at least the hour. But I tell you one thing, if we get rejected at any levels of supply and we start rolling over, it's a very, very quick fix back to the downside. But again, based on Friday's close, we're just trying to trade day-by-day, channel-by-channel, interval-by-interval. I kind of like it, right? I kind of like it. So Apple, you know, you gotta give Apple the benefit of the doubt. Any week close on Apple, don't you have to buy it into rising 60-minute support? Right? If you're convinced the market's gonna go higher and this is it, that was Friday's reversal. Don't you have to give it a shot on rising 60-minute support, going red to green, taking out Friday's channel, right? And again, so if Apple's gonna lead the way, well, it definitely had a really good close closing over the 50-day moving average. You gotta like Apple, right? Microsoft also came out with pretty good earnings. You can see here, back-to-back days, it got rejected off the same supply, okay? So if Microsoft and Apple start leading the way and they start confirming above the previous channels, why can't Microsoft give up another, excuse me, give another four to five points to the upside to the next supply zone? Baby steps, right? Because again, if we're going to reclaim the 200-day moving average, it has to be baby steps. It's not gonna be one leap. It's gonna be little baby steps here and there. So there's definitely stocks that look pretty good and you definitely wanna go with the leaders that are making a case, right? You don't wanna go with the stocks that are down 80% in two bonds, like the NETs, yeah, they can bounce, but you wanna go with the leaders. You wanna go with the cash cows. You wanna go with the ones that are recession proofs. Apparently, iPhone did sell nine trillion iPhones, right? So you wanna go with the leaders and the Wall Street Darnals, darlings and institutional money flow that will attach. So I like Microsoft. I like Apple. If they start taking out the previous day's channel, that is a big if, and again, wanna get the bulls to benefit of that, but in my mind, I already know where we are and if we do get rejected, I'm gonna be very, very prepared for that as well. Look at Citrix system. Never went down. Look at this chart. How many charts look like this, right? Citrix looks really, really good. It gapped up, went sideways and it held through the whole sell-off, which is incredibly impressive. Yeah, maybe this thing is one or two days away from going. This thing looks really, really good. Even a name like Home Depot, right? Look at this thing. First close over the 10-day moving average flag. Again, nobody's saying it's going with 420 tomorrow, but if the market rallies a day-to-rally, why can't this thing go back into the 374, 375 level? So there's definitely channels I'm looking at to the upside if we have a day-to-runner, but again, I always play devil's advocate. I never trade with eyes wide shut. I'm always a realist and know where the big picture is. And if there's any trouble in paradise, right? And we can't reclaim Friday's channels. We're gonna flip the script and go right back down. And that's the most important part that we have to be prepared for, that we have to accept. And the most important part is if you are a bull, that 200-day is risk-on. 200-day, risk-off, 200-day, risk-on. Most important part, guys, stay patient, right? You don't need to trade every single day. You don't need to put your situation every single day, feet to the fire. We trade ranges, okay? We've been always trading ranges. That's the greatest part about this whole lunatic environment that's going up and down, up and down. The stocks that we've been always trading always give us the biggest, widest, average true range in the market. So when most stocks, most traders trade off daily charts and all the daily charts are all messed up, well, all the ranges are basically the key to kind of get it from point A to point B because you already know your measure potential with the bottom range and the top of range on full risk. So guys, have a great, great remainder of your weekend. I literally, it's 9.30 in the morning right now. My daughter has three basketball games today and my son has four. Don't even ask me how we're gonna get this done, but we will get it done. Guys, have a great day. Have a blessed day. Stay safe and stay healthy. And God's will, I'll see you tomorrow.