 Well, hello all. This is Jasper Loller, Mark Analyst with CMC Markets. Welcome to today's webinar. And so we've just got the risk warnings on the screen here. I'm sure you've all read it by this point. I'll flick to the next page. And that's that about done. Okay. Well, for this week, really it's mostly all about the earnings from the U.S. We've probably got 200-odd companies that would be worthwhile watching, just releasing their earnings in the next four days of this shortened week. Some big ones later in the week, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook. So if you're trading these individual shares, obviously these earnings announcements are absolutely key. Generally what's been happening so far is that I would say if the earnings released to date, probably 70% of companies have beaten expectations. That makes a lot of sense just in that earnings expectations have been revised down somewhat just because of the poor weather that we saw in the U.S. And so that's kind of affected companies, not even just in America but internationally too, who have business in America obviously. Earnings expectations have been lowered down. The investments are lower. And so then naturally it's just a bit easier to beat those lowered expectations. So the key thing that we should be looking for in these earnings reports, whatever company you're following, there's not even so much about the earnings beat that obviously you probably don't want to be buying into a stock that's missed earnings. But not even so much the earnings beat but the forecast for the second quarter and for the rest of the year because there is some debate both in terms of company performance and also just economic growth in the U.S. particularly. Also China as to whether growth is going to pick up from being a bit slow in the first quarter in kind of pick up or whether they're going to continue to sag after this kind of recent surge we had in March. So looking at what these CEOs from these different companies have to say about it gives us a good indication. In terms of economic data I would say the kind of key information we just mentioned was probably going to come from China again because the U.S. it's starting to look like things are picking up given the last couple of non-farm payroll reports etc. Generally in line with expectations close to 200,000 jobs created things are looking up a bit in the U.S. whereas in China things are distinctly slowing down and probably something that you're going to start hearing from some of these CEOs in these earnings reports which is going to feed into these stock markets and these indices as a whole is maybe revising down growth estimates in the Asia region as a result of this slowdown in China. It's not all just about the U.S. growth even for U.S. companies. These international companies the biggest growth area has really been China and if that's slowing down that's going to impact their profits. Aside from that we have, I mean China kicks off the manufacturing PMIs later today I believe that is sort of early hours tomorrow perhaps and then we also have the French and German manufacturing PMIs this week the German IFO and the UK retail sales I believe. Now I'm going to dig straight into some of these kind of key charts here something I just created was slightly on a longer term basis and by the way as always if you had any questions or anything I was discussing or anything else obviously feel free to pose that question. Ideally just a private message to me because I seem to get those a bit easier. So just having a look at this chart that I had. If we have a look at the chart forum here. Okay here we go. I'll go straight to it. Generally why I advocate when it comes to analyzing the charts and designing in your trades for the day or if you're trading longer term it's just starting with these longer term charts and this is a chart for the German 30 you know the DAX and what we can see here is fairly clearly a longer term uptrend as it has been with all these global stock indices for the most part maybe excluding China perhaps maybe India. Price has been moving pretty high and but of late we've been trapped in between this range pretty much in between 9000 and not quite 10,000 and more like 9000. 730 I would say is the kind of key level that we've seen these kind of small Wix candlesticks touching on there and so that will be the key going forward but a couple of reasons I think perhaps we're in for a break of this range rather than a break of this trend line is just looking but here I'll annotate it on the chart we haven't had a weekly close below this trend line that's touched these two lows here here we didn't even touch it, here we are touching it so obviously the trend has decelerated a bit obviously because we're going this sideways range right now but it hasn't managed a close below there I think that might be quite telling the other thing there will be similar indicators there will be similar signals in different indicators something I use the RSI you'll notice that these large corrections that happened corresponded with a dip below the RSI 40 level and that level has been holding in these most recent corrections and it has again here now it's not to say that this can't turn down and break down below there but that was the touch we've seen and now we've got this trend line which perhaps you can see better on the daily RSI but this looks like it perhaps might be breaking above which can sometimes be a leading indicator of what's going to happen with the price RSI is also holding above this key 50 level so when RSI starts coming up against 60 and this old high and when the price starts testing if it does in fact test this sort of 9,730 type area if this RSI has already broken I think the tendency is going to be for an upside break that said we started on this long term timeframe we dropped down to the one day chart we can see we really are still just stuck in the sideways mode and we'll see in a minute the US markets have had a five-day winning streak it's not been quite so impressive in European markets the DAX noticeably but we've had three winning days including today and somewhat corresponding with this trend line that we had longer term and you see this gap here I think would be quite important the price reversed pretty strongly off 9,100 didn't even get down as far as 9,000 which was this 200-day moving average so a few indications are suggesting there's probably quite a strong movement and a potential breakout going forward that said I think we are still in range and this 9,730 area typically when you're in a range market the high probability that you trade is to start selling towards the top of the range and to be buying around the bottom of the range so that's obviously just assuming the range is going to keep going we have had arguably one, two, three, four, five touches at the bottom of the range one, two, three at the top four possibly you could argue so at some point it's got to break out one way or the other and so a couple of technical indications perhaps suggesting they could be to the upside again if that is a longer term chart it's not to say it's going to happen in the next day but a shorter term if the momentum is higher given the last three days action we drop down to a four-hour chart here we've got the 200-hour, sorry it's 204-hour SMA and it kind of corresponds with this little breakout area here so that would probably be the first area the price would come back down to test more reliably would be this which you could see is pretty much a reverse head and shoulders on this four-hour chart starting with this strong reversal candlestick there so the projection for that that's pretty much almost on the money for 250 points so if you're adding 250 on top of here you'd be looking at about the 9600 that's how long right? which kind of makes sense that prices would start stuttering a bit around this previous high so then some correction might be expected down to perhaps this area has been quite a strong trend so maybe even down to the breakout of the pattern okay, let's have a look at the US markets now you can see we did have this RSI various divergence between the new highs made in the S&P and a lower high made in the RSI but arguably that's played out here in this correction that we saw and we've come back up again and we're retesting this high and we're back above the 50 in the RSI and there's no particular indication that we shouldn't keep on pushing up to test up to 1,900 again if we drop down to the low chart you can see it it looks pretty similar to the durability that we were just looking at and not quite as clear a reversal pattern on the downside but again this 204 hour average perhaps we'd be expecting something this was kind of a strong breakout so this was the area that people would have had stop losses and stop buy orders and so that was kind of the active area, the breakout of that which triggered this large move so back down to there, just low, 1,860 ahead of 1,850 might be an area to look at if not, I had this long term level based on the 1 hour chart slash that you can see this strong candle here and the breakout of this area would also be important so depending on how conservative you're feeling about this this recent move higher you can either choose to buy higher into it obviously the high probability of the order getting triggered but higher exposed risk because obviously the price could move all the way back down to 1,810 and it would still strictly speaking be in this kind of range mode they could even drip a bit below, still be in a range and short term still kind of hold somewhat of an uptrend now let's just have a quick look at the Dow, that looks pretty similar but yeah again you can see with the indices we're stocking this in this range but we're pushing to the top of it now obviously we're not at the top of the range yet so the fact that the RSI it does look like it's sagging off but that's not to say it can't pick up and push into this the top of the range around the sort of 70 level that we've seen the last couple of times you can see sideways range in price, sideways range in RSI so assuming the range is continuing this is kind of a high probability sell area high probability buy area but just looking at that DAX chart that we were a longer term at some point there's going to be a break out and the bounce that could be to the upside so selling as you do get it to this area not necessarily a bad idea but looking for a move all the way back down to the bottom if you believe that longer term break out is going to happen targeting this kind of area might not be so wise okay I'm going to flip over to currencies start with the euro now again starting this kind of longer term I mean this line is a bit messy here we don't necessarily need this but I'm seeing this as a kind of longer term wedge type pattern which would sort of suggest a move lower and to answer with you that's almost got to happen at some point but right now what we're looking at generally, fundamentally which is why you're seeing things like the Spanish five year yield lower than the US five year yield it's just because of the difference in rate expectations in Europe the ECB have recently been moving towards quantitative easing and in the US they're obviously tapering their quantitative easing program stopping it so one is obviously moving in the direction of these one central bank is moving in the direction of easing the other is moving in the direction of tapering off so generally speaking that would be pointing towards a stronger dollar and a weaker euro so that would be when this longer term wedge pattern would start to play out as you see that even lower rates in the euro zone and quantitative easing and reduced QE in the US we've really been kind of chopping around this 138 level and it's going to need some kind of impetus to get us out of that and this week it could well be the PMIs are about to see out Germany and France tomorrow perhaps because what we have been seeing is a bit of a while things have been kind of taken a bit higher in the US we've seen a bit of a what you might call a plateau in German economic data and mostly just off the back of you know Germany's a big exporter and they export a lot to China and a lot to Russia and obviously China we've just we've discussed there's things some sort of growth and Russia as we all know are seeing some problems at the moment that's the situation in Ukraine I mean hopefully it will remain contained and won't affect markets and won't break out into some wider conflicts but there is the potential to do that and it's already hit Russian companies pretty hard the Russian stock indices, MySex is down pretty strongly on the year and any companies that are doing a lot of their business exporting to Russia you've got to believe it's going to be impacted especially if we see some tougher sanctions from the US namely but also the Eurozone on Russia so Germany obviously are not too in favor of these sanctions which is because it's really going to be doing not been doing their own business any favors whereas obviously US may be less directly impacted by trade with Russia they have their own supplies of oil whereas Germany is dependent on 30% of the oil from Russia 30% of their exports go to Germany that doesn't sound quite right but it's definitely one of their top export destinations so they're obviously not as keen so it remains to be seen whether those sanctions actually take place I tend to think they probably won't on such a large country like Russia unless Vladimir Putin really steps things up and tries to annex pieces of eastern Ukraine and then maybe Moldova and some of these other former Soviet block countries which I mean it does sort of look like that perhaps is happening but you can only assume that I think the assumption would default towards a lesser in the way of sanctions just because of the trade links that Europe has with Russia all that said with the Euro it's yeah we're going to be waiting for that probably that German manufacturing data happening later in the week and we may see a continued slowdown and that would obviously for the most part a slowdown in business confidence in Germany implying that they're going to be doing less business and implying that Europe might see slower growth you know that's generally going to be a bad thing for the Euro so we may see a move back down to test this trend line down here or this prior support and if this does give way given it supported the price a couple of times now this 13675 roughly also this longer term wedge trend line then you know that could spark a bigger sell-off so that's definitely something to be wary of we do have the 200 day the next supporting area and then below that this 13480 which essentially you could round off to the 135 that's kind of the main support for this kind of rate upward-sleeping range that we've seen in the Euro but as far as the yen now again longer term what we saw was this pretty weak candle the week before last coming off the top of this trading range and then unsurprisingly you know that was highlighted on that week the following week we saw a massive dump in the dollar yen and correspondingly the Nikkei but now we've seen a bit of recovery we've moved up over half of that move down and it remains to be seen as to whether we can in fact break out higher from this this kind of short-term triangle pattern or this kind of lower from this longer term trend line here at the moment it's been holding it and we're really kind of contracting within this range and hopefully it could be a good trade the background obviously is the consumption tax increase in Japan and the general idea is that this consumption tax, higher tax is going to weaken consumer appetite weaken growth in Japan and at some point the Bank of Japan are going to have to act and further ease policy and that would be basically involves printing a lot of yen and weakening the yen and that would be the impetus we would want to see to see dollar yen finally break out and hold this trend line and break higher for the time being then they haven't announced it and Koroda has been quite positive about the Japanese economy and its outlook into the third and fourth quarter expecting that the economy is going to rebound from this higher tax rate and the Japanese will just adjust so that speaks to not any more easing going forward they are already involved in a quantitative easing program but it would really need to be an upping of the ante of that program to see the dollar yen break out so it's really kind of dependent on government policy and that's why we're stuck in such a tight range that we don't know what that policy is yet so dropping down we can see this has been a bullish turnout in that we've held above this and you'll notice that the dollar yen these days looks quite similar to the Dow Jones industrial average and it just kind of owes to the link between the low rates in Japan that people use as financing to invest in riskier assets people kind of, it's like a carry trade people borrow cheap rates in Japan and invest either in US treasuries or in these days European debt hopefully I've got five minutes here let's have a look over at gold gold has been an interesting one this year for any of you guys that trade it got seriously dumped last week that day it moved I think it was $35 in the day you can see it here on this day it kind of made sense so we had this strong rally since the start of the year we corrected down just around half of that and it corresponded to these highs here it was kind of from this kind of breakout reverse head and shoulders arguably and so then we had a kind of steep correction down from there as mainly gold is trades higher when there's tension so the Ukraine situation helped gold and then also just as inflation hedge so whatever it looks like data is a bit weak in the US and perhaps the Federal Reserve won't be tapering their QE program as quickly then gold does well at the moment it does tend to look like the US are going to continue their tapering program generally speaking it's bad for gold so this is kind of the line in the sand at the moment this is still this kind of 50% retracement area and these old highs because just slightly confusing when the chart but you can see just about as it was approaching the 50% move of this moved down and that's what's with the corresponding with this strong momentum breakdown area the price dropped off the thing just above this 50% area at the moment so yeah really these lows are going to be key if you break that nothing really to stop you thinking that we can't just move because the final line in the sand would be the 61.8 really put to any hope that this upturn is continuing beyond that you're probably looking to retest the lows and then I tend to think that those those lows will hold just for sort of longer term physical demand type reasons there's still a lot of demand in China and India but it's really kind of a battle of the physical demand versus the paper demand slash supply of all the people trading the gold ETFs and the gold futures etc and short term often those speculative flows will outdo any kind of longer term reason for holding gold that's not to say obviously that one 180 can't break and that would obviously be I would imagine we would be sparked for a big sell probably down to a thousand dollars in outing and gold if you are a longer term long gold a break of one 180 you want to reconsider the size of your holding or whether you want to still be in the trade or not okay well the last thing I've mentioned just is that we have the entire section here on the platform so I made a couple of notes here just about some biotech stocks to watch for after the close today might be worth having to read to those when you get the chance if you're interested in trading any US stocks biotech stocks are what fuel this sell-off in stocks recently so their earnings are going to be of interest and then the other thing will be that I'm looking to add a sort of summary of the economic data to look at for the week alongside this video and hopefully in this inside section as well so you better see a quick summary of things looking forward I've got a couple of questions here and what I'm going to do is stop the recording and then answer these questions thanks a lot all Jasper Lawler Mark Analyst, CMT Markets for our weekly webinar thanks a lot