 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Axis of Trader.com nightly wrap-up show if everybody is doing well. So we're going to start off the update by a very profound statement. I forgot what the guy's name was, but the head global equities chief of Goldman Sachs says that he's forecasting now that the bull market is over. In a related story, water is wet. So let's talk about the market. First and foremost, I don't want to belittle how serious this corona thing is. I don't want to do that. You see news now really getting aggressive. School closings, countries going on lockdown. I think Trump is speaking today. It's such a long day. I can't remember all the information I promised us today, but there's a lot of stuff going on. And the last thing that I want to do is belittle the situation. The last thing I want to do is emphasize what is happening. Again, this 30,000, 300,000 financial sites, you can go on Twitter and everybody will give you their opinion of what's happening. Again, I want to speak from the trader's point of view. That's it. Again, I don't know what the bonds are doing. I don't know what the yields are doing. I don't know what the inverse correlation of anything is doing. We want to know how we can be safe, how we can prosper, and how we can move forward and stay in business. And the one thing that it took me, going back to the mortgage mess, and again, I can't really compare the mortgage mess to what we're seeing now. Because remember, right now we're at a health risk. During the mortgage risks, you could still go outside. You could still go to a bar. You could still go into a crowded movie theater. You're not thinking of your life. Yes, it was things horrible. It was financial Armageddon on the table. All of those things. Yes, yes, yes, and yes, but you weren't going to die from it. There wasn't a cause of harm to your family. If you get sneezed on by some random stranger next thing you know, you infected everybody in your family and everybody in your block. So it really is talking about apples to oranges and how the dynamic structure is. One way there was an end game, right? If the government didn't bail everybody out, again, life as we knew it possibly would have been over, and I guarantee you, we would not be having this conversation today. You could say what you want, the liberal approach talking about, well, they shouldn't have bailed them out. Okay, then, again, move on. But it's different. It's different right now. And a lot of things from the trading aspects right now are a lot different than back then. It took me basically from 2007 to about the early part of 2008 just to kind of figure it out, right? A little bit just try to figure out what was working, what was not working, try to like get into a rhythm. Because remember, nobody ever saw banks go out of business. Nobody ever saw insurance companies, reinsurance companies go out of business. We didn't get that. We were never exposed to that. So we learned a year, year and a half later, we learned how to adapt to it. It's taken me now about, I would say about a month, really a month, month and a half to really start getting a stronghold of what I see is working, where I see the value is. And I know right now what not to do. Okay, just based on my experiences from the mortgage crisis, the Lehman days. And the hardest part is to find out what works. But the hardest part is also to let go what doesn't. And I've been talking about value on gaps for the last month, month and a half. Forget about the news now. Again, we know how bad it is. We're going to take the news out of the equation. We're only going to talk about gaps right now. So I've been talking about now that every rally is not built the same, every gap up is not built the same, but every gap down is. And the reason why I keep on saying that is nothing goes down in a straight line. Okay, there's always areas of the market that every single day will give you that very, very aggressive title shot, right? That one shot, that a boxer, even if they're losing a fight, they can get one shot off and take down their opponent. And this is constantly a constant every single day. We get the big gap down, ranges form, right? Because there's always dip buyers, no matter what their program or they are, whatever the case may be, artificial manual, there's by programs. There's always by programs and you always see the futures at any given time of any interval, give a spike, 100 points, 150 points, 200 points. And the ranges that are confirming that were developed the candle before, they're getting the dollar, the $2 or $3 or $4. Let's talk about the individual pivots in a second. What I see working also, right? So that for the first part of the day, no matter how bad the news is, we're constantly getting that volume flow to the upside, right? And you're getting some really good value trades. That's why I talked about yesterday that the market, despite the market rallying 1,000, 1,200 points, whatever it was yesterday, I just couldn't get going. And it frustrated me because my plan to the downside was playing out perfectly and I still couldn't get that wave. But I also talked about in the video last night that if we could just get another gap down open, I think we'll get some better value in today. And that's exactly what we got. And again, we'll talk about that in a second. But the one thing that you really have to do right now, and again, I don't care what type of trader you are, you have to open your eyes. You really do and see exactly for what it is. I think a lot of traders are still in that bull market concept that you can trade everything, right? You can trade everything. And again, yes, there's some ridiculous groups that are getting crushed and they're getting some good moves back and then they're getting crushed again. Again, the airlines, the cruise ships, the hotels, right? Anything to do with travel and leisure, they're getting smacked. But the most important part is what people have to understand is, guys, we're not anywhere near a bottom. Just remember that. Here's my point, right? Here's my point, okay? The 9-11 really lasted, the really hard trade of 9-11 lasted about probably to the middle of 2003, from 2001. The mortgage mess, the really hard, hard part of the mortgage mess really lasted about a year and a half. I know it was a two-year run, but about a year and a half. So there's nothing for us to suggest, okay, that we just came from a two-year monster run, guys. Ridiculous. This is a two-year monster run in the Nasdaq 100, in the S&P 500, in the Dow Jones Industrial, right? A two-year monster run. We've been selling now for a month, okay? How arrogant do we possibly think that a two-year monster run all of a sudden sets a bottom after a month worth of selling, which we don't even know, and unfortunately we don't know this, but we don't even know, okay? How aggressive this still can be. Again, some doctor came out today talking about this is much worse than the flu. We don't know that, okay? But he's talking about 500,000 people, a million people could die. Crazy stuff. We don't know that. So again, how can we play, and again, speaking strictly from the trader's aspect of it, how can we turn around and say, well, this is the bottom. This is the bottom. We're a month in after a two-year run, and now we have a tremendous bearish catalyst behind us. So before you start talking about putting some money to work, some long-term plays and all that stuff, remember, look where we came from. For the market to really get bad, okay? This is not bad yet, okay? We're still in the middle of the range. This is a monthly view of the NASDAQ 100, the QQQs, okay? We're not even in the middle, excuse me. We're not even in the middle of the range of the last run-up, okay? For us to start thinking, to even have a notion for a market to hold, the Qs need to get all the way down to 160. Now again, I'm hoping it doesn't, right? As much as I'm comfortable in my approach right now to the market every single day, I'm good with it. But again, for majority of you guys who are trading very, very short period of time, don't have the experience. The last thing you want to do, or at least I want to see you guys do, is get into a market that's been the last for a year, a year and a half, two years, and you're kind of turning yourself into oblivion. But the reality is for the market to hold any type of support and test levels that we put in two years ago, unfortunately it's going to have to need to get down to this. Now, hopefully there is going to be some sort of solution, temporary solution. Again, as Trump said, we have the most brilliant scientists, doctors all over the world, knock on wood, I hope they come in and they do a phenomenal job and they get a cure or they get some sort of remedy and everything kind of flat lines that we could go on with our lives, but we don't know that. So the only thing we can prepare for, okay, we can't prepare for the future. We could take precautions, right? We could wash our hands. We could sterilize. We could, you know, like today I ran into the supermarket. Okay, ran into the supermarket. I saw the aisles. They were cleared. They were cleared. And the joke was why people running on toilet paper. And I go, well, let's see. There was no toilet paper. And the guy taps me on the shoulder and he goes, we just got a little shipment in, right? They literally put out 15 boxes, right? I took six, just in case, right? And they were gone. They were gone. The people who were around me, all the 15, the 15 packages, whatever they were called, they were gone. Maybe there was 20. They were all gone. So people are scared. People are starting to prepare. But the one thing that we can't prepare as traders is playing them as Clio, looking at our magical crystal ball and say, well, where is the market going to be in three weeks? Well, where is the market's going to be in two months? You can have an educated guess and you can play worst case scenario. You could play devil's advocate. You could play best case scenario, but things progressively are starting to get worse. We have to be adults about it. And again, prepare our families for whatever the case may be. Working from home, washing our hands, sanitizing, whatever the case may be. I know schools are closing. I know universities are closing. I know countries are closing, right? Countries are closing. Italy is out of commission now. Lockdown. So we need to know what's going to happen in the future. For now, we have to use common sense when we're trading. You don't need to trade anything for size. If you think for a second you could trade size in this market, God bless you, you're a better human being than I am. Today, for example, I traded Tesla. That's all I traded today. And Tesla was so strong in the morning. The moves out of these channels were going $5 to $7 in a matter of minutes. Now, again, looking back in and saying, wow, I wish I had full size. Okay, if my aunt had a pair of, should be my uncle. If, if, if, if it doesn't pay the bills. So you don't need to be that gung-ho, that gung-ho, arrogant, alpha trader that needs to catch every single monster move. Just grind it out, guys. Keep grinding out that whole derogator mentality. You don't need to step up to the plate and hit a home run. The home runs are if you're taking bets overnight. That's a fact. So if you're betting on the downside and you get a futures down a thousand, that's a home run. If you're betting on the upside and you get a futures down a thousand, well, you just struck out very, very aggressively. So if you are going to look for a home runs, it's going to be in the overnight market. Again, I'm not smart enough to guess. Yes. Do I believe we're still going to go lower? Longer term? Yes, I do. Anything could happen tomorrow. Can we still go down another thousand points? Like, right, we went up, we went down 2000 points a couple of days ago. We went up 1200. We went down 1200, 1300 today. Can we wipe out, you know, wipe out, we already wiped out yesterday's gains. Can we still go lower tomorrow? Yes, yes, yes. Can we up a thousand points? Yes. I'm prepared for everything, but the most important part is we need to think common sense, right? We're not supposed to, you know, forecast what our reality wants to be. We have to try to figure out what our reality actually is and make really good choices. So going into today, again, I had an open mind yesterday. I just kind of lost interest. I was very frustrated. I think somebody commented on the video and said, Danny, you seem very frustrated today. And I was. I just couldn't understand why. I had a great plan. I couldn't execute yesterday. But I also knew today I thought it was going to be better value, especially if we gap down. And again, you know, again, what we say every single day, it's momentum and values only as good as the next day's starting picture. And we saw a lot of really good value today, especially in the morning. Okay, especially in the morning. And, you know, again, here are my comments in the morning. Value is to the upside. Again, same game plan. Okay, wait for the channel to form. Pay, you know, wait to the form. Confirm patiently. Take the initial cash flow. Right. Use the second entries for safety. Again, for all you guys that trade pivots, you understand what that is. And again, use break even on all runners. And I joked around, obviously, if you don't know what a second entry is, shame on you. You should watch the workshops. But again, that's where the value was. So we, you know, we looked at a lot of names. You know, we looked at a lot of names that potentially could have reversed on day two. RCL never happened. DAL never happened. APT was a big move. Okay. For all you guys who took APT, that was a really, really big move. 1030, 1050 again to play on the whole corona thing. Here it goes. APT. You know, here was the 1030, right? Here was the 1030 spike right here. Here was the 1030 supply. Once it started building above 1030, it exploded. I mean, went to $13, really, really big name there. RCL, there was a pivot on RCL, but it didn't go 52, 83. There was a pivot there. I'll show you in a second. Dallas never made it up there. So here was, I was watching Tesla and just Tesla, you know, in the last three, four gap downs, Tesla was down 30, 40 points. And I was watching Tesla pre-market and I go, it's only down 12, 13 points. It's not going down. And I watched this area here, right? I watched this area here and I go, 640, if it builds and reclaims, it could spike. Okay. It could possibly go right to green. This was my first trade of the day. This exploded. I mean, Tesla absolutely exploded. So here was Tesla, right? Here was Tesla. Here was the 640, right? I said there's a shot. It gets to 655. Why 655? Because if you look at the top of the range here, the highest level of supply, it was 654, 28. And the damn thing exploded. Here was the 640, just absolutely exploded into the 655 level. I actually entered it twice. The first move was about six, came back in, went down like $2, $3. And went red to green. I took a red to green the second time and made pretty much four or five in the next, the second round around. So it was a really, really good move. I was very, very happy about it. Again, watching order flow, very, very key, especially on gap downs where you get the value. And then things started getting really, really aggressive. Netflix 360 area needs to build again, second entry. Netflix I missed. I forgot why, but I missed. Here was the 360 on Netflix, right over here. Right over here. Somehow I missed it. Maybe I was watching Tesla. But Netflix took out 360. And again, you don't need $12 in every trade. $1, $2, $3. If you get these moves, these are big, big moves. So 360 took it out, went all the way up to 363. In a matter of a minute, minute and a half, big, big move there as well. Again, what you're right now, you're looking for is cash flow. Amazon 1864 needs to build. Here was Amazon. So you can see, right? So you can see, here's 1864, right? 1864 went to 1871, same candle. Again, as much as we all thinking about those all bull market monster moves, you're not going to get them. You're not going to get them in the same interval when there's a bearish scenario. You're looking for cash flow. You could always buy these things back. Cash flow, break even on the balance. Cash flow, break even on the balance. That's my formula. That's what I think I figured out about a month, month and a half ago. And this is the formula I'm riding with. So it's very, very important to me that I'm watching the same things over and over again. So that was good. Apple never got up to the 280 level. Big move, big move on Tesla. Big move on Tesla, APT take on the way up. Obviously never got back up to the 655 area. And then we started talking about cruise ships, right? Steve Mnuchin, there's a report out there meeting with the cruise ships later. And again, that was the report. Nobody knew if it was good or bad. That was the report. So I put them on the channel here and I wrote, hey, watch RCL's sneaky area 50 needs to build. Look at what RCL did, right? For all you guys who did take the trade, here was RCL off to 50, right? Here was, excuse me, it was right over here, right? RCL off to 50, sneaky air entry went from 50, went from, excuse me, I'm sorry. I'm in the wrong place. I'm in the wrong place. I apologize. Here was the 50s. I knew it looked crazy. Right, so here was the 50 right here, 49.94. It took out the 50, went right to 51. This is a matter of what? A minute, if all you guys were in it, I didn't take this trade. It went what? A minute, minute and a half for a dollar move on RCL. CCL wasn't as good. CCL I put into the channel. It needs to rebuild 23.50. This wasn't as good. It went from 23.50 to 23.70. It came right back down. Again, apples to oranges, but again, not every single stock trades exactly the same way. NVIDIA never got up to 258. APT new highs, good action. I said good action so far. Keep on taking on the way up. APT monster, ZM got right to 114, never confirmed. This was definitely the biggest move in the afternoon. 630 held twice if it builds below it can flush. 630 on Tesla, it got smashed. Here was the 630 right here. Here was the 630 right over here and it got smashed. Went all the way down to 614 before the rally. Again, going into tomorrow, again, if we get a big gap down, the value will be to the upside. If we get a gap up in it, when I mean gap up, I'm not talking about a thousand point gap up, that's going to completely screw up the day for me. If we can get a gap up of two, three hundred points, two, three hundred points, things will be much easier because then the value will be to the downside as well. Citibank, for all you guys that took the Citibank Scalp, 51 support, any close gets more. Citibank went from 51, 51 to 50. I like the pivot there below 50 tomorrow. So going into tomorrow, guys, again, same game plan, nice and calm. Again, when not trading because the market is open, we're trading because we get value. Stay safe. Do what you have to do to take precautions. Keep your family safe. Well, God's help. I'll see you all tomorrow. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault, where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. 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