 Okay, very good morning Monday 22nd of February. Hope you had a fantastic weekend If you haven't already done so feel free to join our community on and fire live comm if you access a free trial You can get full Unlimited access to all of the portal content including the live stream that goes on throughout the day with myself and the rest of the team but looking ahead to What's in store not just for today, but this week and also Summarizing some of the major things to be aware of for the weekend press I'll kick it off with the overall sentiment at the market open this morning equity index futures a touch soft But fairly moderate move yields again on the front foot So UST notes have come under a little bit of pressure Having seen a very marginal gap down overnight and just trended down in the US 10 year in Asia Pacific trade So down 10 ticks Elsewhere gold up around 13 bucks and back towards a fairly key Level of the course of the last I'd say four weeks of trade that we've come up to have a brief look at 1793 which was that area of support and resistance through 16th 17th of last week which when we broke down price We've got quite heavy there in the other metal and that was also support areas back in the fourth and the fifth So and we've had a retest and rejection of that so far this morning, but worse keeping an eye on the upside levels Otherwise just sticking with metals briefly copper has been Seeing a pretty awesome run of late Initiated at the end of last week continued in the overnight Asia pack session the general Sentiment around the progressiveness of the kind of global economic view about the future Because we've had some really stellar data in the US last week Accelerated vaccination rollouts COVID situations improving just generally in the likes of the US for example and more stimulus coming so Definitely copper here. You can see has sprung higher in the last two trading sessions on a monthly Just to give it a bit of context. We haven't traded this high in copper prices In nine years or so and any breakout of here, which was where we're at at the moment We've seen a bit of a short-term rejection was also the 2008 May high we'd be looking up at around this 2010 2011 high around for 54 if we continue any higher Otherwise Crude oil is in a bit of a short-term range At the moment to find by 6029 at the high to 5880 at the low It's moved a little higher in Asia Pacific trade We'll talk about some of the update on the weather conditions as we go through the news in a short while As eyes continue to remain on that the normalization of temps if you like in order to get facilities and infrastructure back under way And then in the FX markets the dollars actually pretty flat this morning So not too much to speak of near-term Technicals just quite interested to see here the dollar just bumping up a touch actually as I speak and so you're a Cable just having a test down And around what was the late a late us low in the futures here 140 is the pivot as well So an area of near-term support just being tested here in cable moment You can see just trading a little heavy on the breakthrough there Downside level here if we remain this way directionally in cable I'll be looking down at this level here as a target at 130 982 the price Could well drift there and find support around that area technically Likewise, it's definitely a greenback story. There's not a great deal new coming out of the UK We'll talk about the lockdown roadmap in a moment But not a great deal of market moving information for the UK and Europe So definitely driven by the the US dollar for the time being in the euro Just looking at this pat price pattern at the moment that's been holding in some of the short-term price activity We're just having a test on that lower side at the moment So quite interesting to see how we perform here key level on the downside if we did start to break down lower Probably be looking around this 120 303 and a half here We should encapsulate some of the price moving in the second half of last week But overall currency is not too busy If anything just a touch of dollar strength just coming in as I've started the briefing here And a bit of continuation here of equity weakness To boot but look, let's get stuck into some of the headlines and talk about a few different things first off Wanted to mention the COVID-19 situation in the States and It continued to report declining new coronavirus cases Hospital admissions and deaths at the weekend. So all of these main charts pointing While daily tests at the moment still to be tracked They have dropped off quite a bit and a lot of people saying that's because of the adverse weather conditions that've been experienced in the states Meaning that's just been difficult to conduct But otherwise cases hospitalizations and deaths here on the the red going right have all continued to decline at a fairly rapid pace and actually Just having a look at some of these numbers here and a few different charts the US has now vaccinated over 60% of people aged 75 or above and almost half of those aged at 65 to 74 Two bars you can see on the right hand side here And obviously this is particularly important because this older demographic obviously is the most vulnerable to the disease And if we start flipping this over to here Analysts suggest that we could then see deriving from these numbers COVID-19 deaths continue to plummet in the coming weeks and the reason for that is as those aged 75 plus So really these two blue bars here have represented about 60 percent of all COVID deaths and 65 plus have represented about 80 percent of all deaths So here goes the the thinking that if you can target like we've done here in the UK Which is the older more vulnerable group? The kind of priority groups then that that takes care in the US case by terms of death rates 80 percent of all of the deaths that have happened so far in the history of COVID-19 and so Here then we could continue to see some fairly and would be very welcome drop-off in this daily death rate If that can can happen, of course So some positive signs there of course and in the UK we've had similar as well If actually if I just quickly pop to my Twitter account. I was sharing some of these At the weekend so just to quickly show you a number of vaccinations now in the UK is kind of heading up to around 17 million So we continue a pace at this point On the the targets for kind of late March mid April ahead of the self-imposed end of April deadline for the next target Of the priority groups to be hit the number of infections continues to decrease So on a seven-day rolling average down over 20 percent Deaths down nearly 30 percent over the same period if you were looking at the UK So some some some positive signs there But what I would say is that positive signs on that front and this isn't just an isolated thing This is one of a number of positive catalysts at the moment is what perhaps is making equities trade a little heavy Not just today, but over the last couple of sessions The the equity markets struggle a little bit to continue to plow on to new all-time highs And we are in the future as you can see here if you're looking at the Nasdaq in the center chart If you're looking at the S&P here, we're retesting loads that we were printing back kind of on Thursday of last week So equity weakness here tends to then lend its hand to a bit of risk-off sentiment that could bill Support the greenback if that does then and some technical levels here in the euro and sterling to watch On the on the downside Quick look there some of the other news stories sticking with the kind of domino effect then of COVID and talking of the UK This is what we're looking out for later on today And it is the idea then that ahead of the UK lockdown roadmap Which we're going to get unveiled later today a senior minister said last night that the UK government would take a cautious approach to easing the lockdown with restrictions lifted every few weeks to judge the impact despite a significant Acceleration of the COVID-19 vaccination program as we just saw in some of those previous Graphics so the idea here being I'm going off data not a dates Which I guess is a bit of a reverse strategy from what they were doing at the beginning Which was putting out these pretty Aggressive timelines and pretty much failing to hit them nearly every single occasion So as much as there's some internal Tory difficulties with Boris managing this strategy It's probably the most prudent way to do it in order then that you're not falling short of expectations persistently So slightly different approach Aside from schools most of the real people know is not likely to be con or is likely to be concentrated in April and May Because if you remember with those priority group listings We're looking at the FT last week all the priority groups are likely to have been done with their first dose by Easter So kind of early April time and so therefore most of them more Significant reopening is probably gonna not be with us until at least another month or two At this rate in time in terms of the timings for today This is what the the timings look like the sign-off is with key ministers said to have happened yesterday We'll go to a full cabinet today Parliament to be informed at 3 30 this afternoon and then a press conference will be held at 7 p.m. tonight presumably with the Prime Minister on national TV and That's coming from the telegraph newspaper. How market-moving is this for cable? I don't actually think it's either Outright initially positive or negative the fact that we are and any adored the Longevity and the strictness of the current UK lockdown has had an obvious impact on Containing the virus to a certain degree as we've just seen we've seen Positive developments in terms of case rates declining subsequent pressure on on the hospital infrastructure and deaths, which is all good However, that does create further economic damage But I would say that that's just a kind of afterthought the more near-term driver of markets is still how quickly these vaccines going How how quickly can we get the next priority group done and can we start then seeing some more? Reopening around those timelines as we said in April and May so I don't actually think the roadmap in itself is a Particularly big deal today. I wouldn't be looking at it to be a real significant catalyst for sterling If anything, I think it allows the market to have a fairly constructive view That's if anything supportive for pound about what the future looks like over the coming months It's kind of the light at the end of the tunnel kind of idea that in combination with the vaccines I think and Ultimately for currency markets a lot of that's going to be derived from the dollar reaction to power on Tuesday But if power does tow the line continues to push back against this kind of reflation yield worry and says that look We're going to remain Accommodative and loose policy for the foreseeable future Well, if that keeps the green back down And then I got no reason to think that this this pound won't remain Supported at this point if we look at the week as a whole but obviously that's contingent on Power going that direction, of course Okay, a few other things to get up to speed on just on the news perspective then we'll look at the calendar There's quite a few key events this week This was an update on the vaccine side Pfizer and by NTEX COVID-19 vaccine appeared to stop the vast majority of Recipients in Israel becoming infected and this is providing them the first real world indication that immunization will curb transmission of the coronavirus Otherwise bit of attention on the Iranian situation now that we've had Biden come in Iran's deputy foreign minister has said US needs to remove its sanctions Before talks can begin to revive the nuclear deal with world powers Iran as in terms of timings has set a self-imposed deadline basically of tomorrow Tuesday and separately to this So when I say that deadline, this is atomic inspectors will lose some access a lot unless there's some type of Arrangement brokered now We're not looking for a one-and-done deal to happen right now The things I was reading in the press at the weekend was more about the idea that they can just kind of roll things Over with the premise that both sides are willing to continue dialogue and there's a lot of back-and-forth The such a tricky relationship and geographic region to manage particularly coming how that Relationship was soured through the Trump administration that it's going to take a lot of time here So I don't think this is necessarily Again a good or bad immediate thing in an intraday environment for oil prices But it's certainly something that warrants watching going forward. The other thing here was about Iran they are set to attend the meeting of an OPEC plus advisory committee next month according to a delegate who chose not to be identified This isn't particularly Unusual Iran some other countries are not actually part of the group that would normally be in these meetings But they do often attend But it does go some way to show that perhaps the Iran is gearing up for a bit of an increase to their oil supply There are expectations that that's going to pick up and by the year-end Iran was going to be pumping Circa around a million more than they currently are at the moment But again, this could all be comprised of this part of this deal that the conversation between the US and Iran It will be happening not just this week, but in the coming weeks and months otherwise Yeah, what's the weather conditions? Because this was a real driving point in the energy markets last week I would say that a lot of that trade is kind of done As it was last week when we sold off very persistently through Thursday into Friday session We still remain relatively elevated Trading at 59 73. I did hear of Goldman's over the weekend they basically said that They're bullish with their forecast and brought forward this estimate and now see global oil demand to reach 100 million pounds per day by late July So looking at things like the speed of the vaccination rollouts As to become ever more bullish on prices over the medium term But this is one of the main things looking at the National Weather Service in America Temperatures are beginning to to moderate and as you can see here some of the key areas particularly around Texas Seeing some of the warmer spots as well allowing the facilities and just general infrastructure to continue to thaw out At the moment there are some reports of refineries restarting operations But there's others who because of more lasting damage It's still going to take a number of weeks to get back online So not too much visibility on this at the moment on a granular level But I'll keep you guys updated on Amphilive throughout the rest of the session But as you can see this morning, I wouldn't say it's having too much of an in broader impact on the price of oil for the time being And then let's look at the calendar then because it's generally a calendar driven Week there's a lot going on to be aware of and I'm going to run through it in chronological order So this morning and you do get the German iPhone number first thing on the docket Economists are expecting a rebound from a seven month low of 90 spot one But only marginally up to around 90 spot five here Again, ifo for any new traders is a forward-looking soft sentiment based survey Asking companies on the ground in Germany about their expectations Current conditions and what they what they kind of outlook is over the next six months period Given that Germany remains in one of the strictest lockdowns and having been rolled over several times in in the major Economic country in the eurozone be interested to see how that how that comes out a soft number Might only further fuel any recent weakness here We're seeing in euro on the back of the fact that dollar just picking up a little bit as well as I said Earlier Keeping on that euro level you can see it's just snapped through there So training a little bit heavy now and as I said, I've been keeping on around 121 oh three and a half as a downside level So definitely a dollar driven move here rather than those other currencies as I said, you can see that target now Cable coming down through that pivot 140 finding some support around 3982 will be key on a downside level They're in cable just while it's up that would be to the next area 139 53 encapsulating the highs that we saw back on Monday last week support on Thursday and Friday's price activity Okay, back to the calendar then finals things So ifo today, but otherwise, it's a very quiet calendar That then leads us to go further into Well, don't forget this afternoon. You do have ECB's Christine the guard speaking 145 what would I look out for the guard? Nothing really too much to be honest. I think the ECB have been fairly Open and transparent and spoken frequently. I don't think we would be expecting anything particularly new here from the guard But nonetheless 145 London time fence bowmen of Ota Just half an hour before the closing Wall Street There's we're going to Tuesday. We get the latest jobs day to come out UK HICP final numbers and Eurozone, but these are again finals. So I'm like to be to market moving US consumer confidence on Tuesday in the normal all of the trees in the API The biggest thing now on Tuesday and arguably for the week is this one For any of those new to markets This is one of the major Speeches that power will give during the year outside of the uniform eight kind of normal rate-setting meetings During the course of a year. So he's going to be presenting this semi annual testimony This does actually come alongside the latest semi annual monastery policy report as well And given really the context we've had really rising yields on the back of strong US data Coven improvements vaccination acceleration Progression in Biden's stimulus plan. Don't forget as well. There's another stimulus plan for on the infrastructure side due to be Talked about as well in the near term beyond getting the current proposal of 1.9 trillion ratified in some shape or form So there's definitely Reason to constitute rising yields and this has got people a little bit apprehensive about future rates of inflation as well As we know and so this is why we're so keen to hear from power this week personally I see power largely reiterating the central banks commitment to easy policy the difficulty he has that as any optimism Which he's peers to a certain degree? Validated in showing in terms of his current view on things and what the future might look like particularly on the COVID and vaccination front It needs to be Timpered with a lot of caution because he definitely will not want to fuel the flames of this whole Idea that the discussion may be looming that the Fed might start taper on QE I don't think you'll want to give that signal not not yet So probably a reiteration of the idea that the virus is particularly uncertain in terms of Future developments and so on might well be used in order to just play down a little bit any underlying Moderate optimism he might he might show so as much as I I think power will navigate this with Probably minimal market disruption It is the single the biggest event of the week and it definitely carries the propensity to to move things considerably if he doesn't Do a good job of it. So definitely that's the one to watch three o'clock on Tuesday if you're gonna You know have a spot in your calendar if you're swing trading or if you're looking at medium term Trades, then you definitely need to be aware of that that event That will probably dictate them a lot of the week's direction in terms of yields equities FX commodities the full cross the board macro view on things He then does appear. I believe the normal routine the Senate Tuesday house on a Wednesday It's just a reiteration on the Wednesday. So Tuesday is the big one Fixing some fixed income supply coming throughout the week as well in the US just to be aware of So let's just move on HSBC also due to give a corporate update which I tweeted a preview of on the Ampli live Twitter account as well When you get a second to have a read Going into then Wednesday, you get new home sales out of the US pretty quiet in terms of UK and Europe You've then got the all-in-between numbers in the afternoon a Number of Fed speakers though. This is not unusual the day after power delivers a big keynote speech on policy almost the Kind of strategy from the Fed is to deploy a number of speakers after any big speech Just in case it requires any realignment of market expectations if what he says is interpreted if they feel Incorrectly so as much as power is going to be coming out again at the house You're going to have brain on Clarita both speaking both voters of some influence as well With on the board Clarita the latter speaking directly on the economy and monetary policy Then going further into the week on Thursday You get the Eurozone sentiment figures not really too much to worry about there more for consideration is going to be The second reading of US GDP expects to be just over 4% you've got durable goods initial jobless claims as well coming out and then going into Friday Well a number of Fed speakers as well on Thursday, and then on Friday you get the quiet Generally UK European session, but the core PCE price index so the feds preferred measure of inflation And given the particular focus on that subject matter at the moment That's going to be a key one to watch at the end of the week And then you'll also get the Chicago PMI the Michigan number is the final reading so not not too much to worry about there So that that is the week so plenty going on and do check out my Twitter handle I've published some full notes yesterday if you need to recap anything in greater detail Otherwise, just let me know if you have any questions for the community on Amphi live in a discord room Well, if you're watching this delayed on YouTube, then just leave me a comment I'll be happy to help. All right guys. Have a good session and a good week ahead. Thanks very much