 Great and we're live everybody welcome back to digital asset news or as we like to call it live DCA with friends of the show Ben from in the crypto verse and James from invest answers gents. Thanks for coming back yet again Thanks for all of us. Oh, yeah, this is gonna be good. I'm gonna tell you right now So we're gonna go over a bunch of stuff first of all We're gonna talk about the ETH merge lessons by the room or sell the news and this what's going on behind the scenes Also, I'm talking about the macro as I think it's pretty much hard to escape and the big question is are we on? Track for deflation and how dangerous is that James gonna answer that one from his buddy Elon Musk? Also, let's talk about follow the money because I don't know where the money is going But it sure as heck isn't traditional markets or crypto Lastly is now the best time to sell before it gets worse and should we be shorting and then lastly lastly excuse me Did I miss anything? Are there some bullish undertones that I didn't think about is the Fed gonna wake up? Is there gonna be a ceasefire in Ukraine? Long-term outlook and timeline, so let's jump into it and before we get started Of course James's channel and Ben's channel the links in the description Also, you can find James over a patreon and Ben's got a great website in the cryptiverse Which I steal from all the time so first questions first ETH merge lessons by the rumor sell the news and we can just see right here Obviously you guys have both done a couple of videos on it. They've been fantastic Thank you so much and over the last 24 hours not too great seven days Even worse and then if we take a look at sound of money is deflation really going on here And as we take a look at the supply sense the mergers actually gone up and then also decentralization verse centralization The key metrics exchange outflows we can see that our inflows into exchanges bitcoins at plus seven fifty six and the inflows for Ethereum is plus one point two billion we can say even clearer here on the crypto quant chart, so Where does it go from here? Where are we going in the short term then? Let's start with you my man Well, you know my general opinion on it the last two videos I put out on a theory on one right before the merge one after the merge and really my my general outlook is that It was a huge buy the rumor sell the news event I kept thinking to myself and telling people, you know If like all of the eyeballs in crypto were on Ethereum at the merge So it's like whoever's going to buy it is probably already bought it You think back to twenty one like Bitcoin and stock to flow like, you know, it was a very Big hyped up moment once everyone starts watching something it kind of makes you wonder Who's gonna who's gonna keep buying it after you know after after we get this major event? So my general outlook for Ethereum's valuation has not really changed. I think that the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation It actually I believe it just put in a lower low and it looks very similar to me as the Bitcoin USD second Distribution phase in 2021 So we had you know, we had bike off distribution for Bitcoin USD in 2021 We had the same thing for ether Bitcoin that finalized early this year And then in the second half of 2021 We had Bitcoin a secondary distribution phase and then I think we just had the same exact thing on the ether Bitcoin pair And it's interesting is the Ethereum dominance is it basically peaked at the same level it peaked at During sort of like the dead cat bounce back in in 2018 the Bitcoin dominance is sort of bottoming at the same level of bottom That in 2018 I know everyone thinks this time is different but you know when you when you look at at the macro headwinds that we're facing right now and Regulatory concerns especially regulatory concerns and then also I mean I you know with regards to Ethereum I mean I will continue to say that I'm a huge macro bull on it But I'm not gonna I'm not gonna just blindly say it's gonna go up when we're in a bear market. So My general outlook is that you know, I think that there's not a great chance the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation is It's gonna be going higher anytime soon. I think it's more likely to go down And ether USD. I mean look we have our regression band down below That's where we as I've said before right in the in the bull market or from the regression band the bull market is born But in the bear we shall return and and currently the fair value of ETH According to the regression. Is it like, you know, 650 bucks or something? So my general thoughts are that it's a fairly bearish outlook for Ethereum over the next like three to six months same with ether USD and ether Bitcoin and And just to briefly touch on your deflation or the you know, the Thing that you mentioned, right? Look, I don't think that Ethereum will be truly deflationary until after we get back to a bull market because remember the more network activity The more that the more ETH that will be burned. But right now No one cares about crypto, you know No one really cares about it. No one's really using it. And so right now I think that a place to narrative is sort of dead upon arrival But in the next bull market once we're once we're cooking again I think you'll you'll see that narrative play out and and Ethereum will go soaring once again Well, shoot that makes sense. I like that build the bear scenario and then hey I gotta tell you if $600 comes in a play for Ethereum, I'm all about it. James. What do you think man? Yeah, well, you know, it's kind of goes as well everything that Ben said I completely agree with and What people are doing is, you know, everybody's front-running the sell the news thing Everybody's kind of expecting that with pre-run happened at top dot A week or ten days ago and then started selling off But the big problems remain and said there's a hundred times one Ethereum 2.0 post-marriage where everyone to call it ain't fixed. It's still slow as heck gas fees aren't gonna drop There are definitely some huge centralization problems right now Which we can go into without being too political But the two-note issue has a problem and also people are kind of Shanghai for 12 months, you know validators, it's not easy for them to Unload so they're kind of locked in and so that a lot of interesting stuff is happening But you'd like to talk a bit about the big concern right now. I think the big story is Gary Gensler right after the merge he comes out and immediately There's a target on the back of Ethereum, you know When he said on Thursday staked cryptocurrencies I think what's the effect of may be subject to federal securities regulations, right? We're eating a pro oversight stance in the wake of this big merge, which is kind of funny and proof-of-stake blockchains generate new coins for Inventors who pool their holdings take on the investment also the big concern with the massive concentration You know two nodes between I think it's Bitcoin Swiss and Binance have 56% of control so imagine the situation where our government was unfriendly and You know do what they did with tornado cash theoretically. It's possible to shut down the network Just thinking out loud so that is a big concern as well for people not raising alarm bells here or anything But definitely an issue for the chain right now Now you know it makes a lot of and I was thinking about this too because they were talking about shutting down dex's and like Can they really do that and they said yeah, of course they do that They did the same thing with everything that was tainted with tornado cash a touch Turned to cash went to the outflows and then once that happens later shut them down go No, sorry, so they're like like the dex's that run on ETH They can say well you got to shut down ETH because gotta shut down the dex game over and that is a huge concern I don't think they'll be that drastic But you know with the Fed coin stuff burying up as well in 2023 This is some weird stuff going on right now. Yeah, and you know what behind the scenes guys we were talking about adding in this this one section about Coinbase adding in a little a little piece to their app where they would allow you to go and to take a look at the difference Politicians and who is positive or negative for crypto I gotta tell you what Ben or what James just talked about doesn't make a lot of sense If we don't get if we don't be a part of the discussion They'll be run the discussion and then before you know it Gensler gets his way He oversees everything the CFTC gets what Bitcoin? That's it. So not a good plan. All right second one and this is I think the big issue This is what Ben was talking about on on both of his videos about Ethereum You can't escape macro. That's one of the big things and there's different problems that are going on We've seen a cooling of the housing markets. There's what the but I don't know what's that big of a coin This is from Redfin one the largest Realtors in the entire world just about and if you take a look at the median sales price over a year There's a little bit of a cool down But not much over three years if we take a look at it It's still looking pretty darn good and then over five years even more so number of homes sold over a year Yes, we're a little bit down But over three years roughly the same and of course there's another article which talks about Average home sale prices decreasing average and median just depends on how you want to dash that up or break it up Inflation has increased just a touch as we can see here on true flation also the CPI numbers came out Fed's gonna come out next week's turn 2021. They're gonna talk about the rates I think it's gonna be 75 basis points. Some people think it's gonna be 50 Some people think it's gonna be 100 I don't know and then of course the big question then I'm gonna start with you James about this Deflation is this the risk that we're having because really just comes down to a race at the bottom Demand goes down on Plymouth goes up prices go down and then you got these low asset prices But bank the other credit fees and so on and so forth and this actually goes to a tweet that your buddy Elon put out Elon warns against Fed says deflation incoming soon warning sizing a subtle north secret a major rate hike risks deflation James, where are we at here? Yeah, the the tweet you just listed there Spelled it out real clear as I wrote it, but I don't repeat myself But if you look at the deflation in the pipeline, I mean You know with the exception of maybe some food elements and some owners equivalent rent Lumbers down 60% copper down 35% oil down 30 35 to 40% iron ore 60% Everything is so far off its highs Baltic freight rates. I think are down 80% Gold is tanking. It's down nearly 20% silver down 40% So we are definitely seeing massive amounts of deflation Obviously when things spike up things mean revert and that brings things down fast and the big problem really is The consequences of deflation can be devastating because it catches everybody off guard Those with debt go underwater that works for both people with real estate Imagine you've got a million dollar mortgage and your house is worth 1.2 million now. It's worth 800,000 That was a big part of the 2018 2008 financial crisis Now the numbers you showed for real estate. Yeah, I expect real estate very very closely This industry has ground to a halt all over the world at the same time Those things that you're looking at do not reflect the true story I mean take The refi market dead New new financing houses are on the market now for 90 days instead of selling within a week before a few months a quarter ago or so Anyway, the deflation consequences are devastating As consumption tanks companies can't sell products nor reinvest everything just gets really bad really fast And the Fed is hopefully going to be aware of this. I did a video in July 2021 that expected deflation, but for it to be very short-lived Because the Fed will have to get us out of that, but they don't want that either That just smashes everything and the other problem we have is the strong dollar He's also smashing emerging markets around the world Which also drags the whole planet down Which is not good on top of all the other issues that the planet has right now today. So Yeah, well, that's a major fed hike. I mean Everything I look at, you know credit markets They they are teetering and I haven't talked about this for a long time Yeah, they can go to a fed funds rate of four and a half percent, but by that time it's Everything's destroyed. This is my take and I think they're smarter than that. They they they know And they they've got 300 phd's on staff Uh, hopefully fingers crossed Smart aheads will prevail within the government I just look at the numbers and what I would do if I was in their seat I got you. Oh, I got you man. I just never on never underestimate the power of groupthink. That's what I'll say and uh So so real quick. Ben. You're always tracking this the Dixie the strength of the dollar and things like that. Where are we at here? Yeah, I mean it looks like it wants to move higher Um, there was actually a period if you go back like a couple decades ago There was a period where where the Dixie went down and equities went down with it So just because it goes down doesn't mean that that equities can't go down with it Um, it just we we've been in a period of of last 20 years or so where that hasn't happened Usually when when the dollars going up equities are going down when the dollars going down equities are going the reverse way I still you know my my my thinking I know james is is is thinking that it would that they should Um pivot at like what three and a half or so for the fed funds rate Yeah, I like I still don't I actually don't agree with that I I think it makes more sense for them to keep to keep raising it and the reason I say that is is um Because you know, I look at at what happened in prior inflationary decades and I I worry that if they pivot too soon It's just going to to to make inflation come back like multiple times over the over the span of like five to 10 years Where they they they they cut back they pivot and then we just have inflation come right back I look what happened in in prior inflationary decades where that's exactly what happened um I think uh, I think pal has been pretty clear. He's he's quoted vocker a couple times I don't think he wants to go down as the next burns He wants to he wants to actually get inflation under control And I don't think you you can do that by stopping at at three and a half percent Not in any not in a not in a very quick manner, right? Sure So and and by the way, I think the markets agree with me and if you go if you go to um You know if you if you look at rate hike probabilities that are being priced in right now Not only a 75 basis points being priced in or predicted for this next meeting But I believe they're also predicting another 75 basis point rate hike in november right now So I mean that's an extra that's an extra 150 basis points Just over the next two meetings. So if we get that which is what the market thinks We're already at four percent and that's before the december meeting um, so I think the most likely path For the rest of the year is that the the fed funds rate will probably end the year somewhere between four to four and a half percent Is what I think um I could even I mean like it's not my it's never been my base case, but I I've said before I think that It'll it'll peak between four to five But it also is going to be as they say data dependent if inflation if inflation continues to go up I don't think they will shy away from going to to even five percent um We can call it financial armageddon. We can call it bear market. We can call it whatever the hell we want to but at the end of the day If if core if core cpi Is is moving higher? I think they care a lot more about that than then um, you know than our portfolios I just do But the point is they don't care about our portfolios the point is they themselves have a huge death bag Every time they increase That is denominated in a currency that they freely print Exactly, yeah, which would lead to more so to me. I was looking at like this Isn't it like like uh making a drink too strong like wow, this is too much vodka on this Let me put a little more uh A little more seltzer in there and then kind of balance it out with money printing and and and pulling things back Is that because that's how I kind of see them kind of working I think ben's right. They're they're going to take some some data dependent Hopefully they use the right data not the retro data and then james is right There's only so much debt we can go to and when deflation comes along Time to put down to put on the money price. There are benefits to um to them raising rates I mean, I I know we're all we all like to take on risk and we like to go buy risky assets, but You can you can go buy like a cd or something You can go buy two-year and get four percent apy and I know a lot of people might scoff at four percent or something But it's better than losing percent on altcoins, right? So You know, there are advantages to to higher interest rates like, you know money market accounts You might see them start giving out four percent We haven't even seen that really in my lifetime But this is this is what this is what like, you know, like my parents saw when they were growing up You know, they saw these higher interest rates So there are some advantages to to that sort of stuff because you can get like risk free, right? Where I'm not saying you should have your entire portfolio or even a majority of your portfolio But it can provide some security during during a bear market, you know, you're just like a fixed income type thing Gotcha, and historical debasement is 14. So Safe Dean Would say if you're not making for what he doesn't say it I twisted his words But if you're not making 14 percent, you're not treading water. You're sinking Right, but if the alternative is to just watch it go down and in crypto or the or the stock market I mean what you do what are you gonna do? And so this lead lead to the next thing, right? Because my question is this Where's this money going because it's not going into traditional finance We can take a look. I mean just the basics the s&p 500 if we take a look at just today 1.4 5 days 5.6 1 month 10 percent down 6 months 12 percent down 1 year 13 percent in 5 years. Hey, you're up 54 percent. That's a long time And of course nasdaq is the same exact thing and then we already know what's going on with our market So james, I'm gonna start with you. Where's the cash? Where's the money? Where's this going? Well, it's in that a lot of people have short-term t-bills Simply straight cash and money market accounts etc. There's over 3 trillion on the sidelines There's also billions draining out of European markets and emerging markets and flooding into Well parked somewhere. I don't know where all the money flow is but they're definitely leaving equities in the european markets right now To find a new home. So we'll see. I mean It's hard to say but there are a lot of people still waiting to deploy right now When that deployment happens is a function of that big lid on the jar of cash, which is the Fed They want to see them changing direction Sorry, do you think everybody's just waiting just kind of looking to see what happens and going? Okay, we got a trillions of dollars hundreds of billions of dollars now. We're going to deploy So the the deployment Ratio right now like if you consider a minus 200 to a plus 200. I think it's called the TMC It's at about 12 to 16 percent, which means most asset managers Based on a survey are sitting on a large proportion of cash They're not invested in the market right now. So again, it all goes back to I did an interview yesterday with larry williams and it'll go on back to when you know The the market stops going down when people stop selling the question is how close are we to that point? Now good question, which I guess so then I mean the same thing here What do you think things are flowing to and then this is something that we mean me ben and james talked about before Which is I think when ben says cash is king Remember it's dollars is king not so much like here or something like that But then the same thing here or something different Yeah, I mean I can speak for myself and and say that you know I've just been I spent a lot of this year just like stacking cash I I've missed out on a lot of a lot of bear market rallies for sure But I also I also just sort of admit to myself that I'm not like I'm not really that skilled at trading those types of things um So I'm sort of just okay missing out on them with the general expectation that Like I might miss out on the counter trend rallies, but I'm I'm still getting right them the the more major trend of of Down, so yeah for me. It's just basically been um, I've just been you know stack. I think cash is king This year and more specifically as you as you duly noted and I often forget to note that it really means the u.s. Dollar I've got a lot of people that you know, they stacking euros and and Not only I mean their their purchasing power has gone down even respect to the u.s. Dollar Um, so that that's hit a lot of people pretty hard. So yeah, I mean cash remains king. I think Uh for for at least a few more months And you know, I I do think that I think if you look at history a lot of times the stock market will bottom about two thirds of the way into the recession and Arguably we're already Almost three quarters into a recession like, uh, you know like q1 q2 and now we're we're almost through q3 Let's assume that this recession could last out until like mid to late 2023 potentially Then you know like we could be seeing a bottom on on risk markets here in the next like three to six months I mean it could come as early as the end of this year Uh, or it could it may maybe we kick. I mean if you go back to even bitcoins prior bear markets We had one that didn't even bottom until q1 of the following year back in in 2015 after the 2014 bear market So I think yeah, I think cash remains king. That's where most of the money's going I mean you can hedge with other things like, you know, there's precious metals I mean actually the energy sector has done has done pretty well. I think a lot of money has Oh, yeah, everybody in the energy sector. I'm not I'm not necessarily saying that it's like the best play at the moment Um, but I don't know. I mean, I know a lot of people are calling for like a commodity super cycle Uh, which I mean we know we know where we're super cycles generally end up Um Yeah, I I think I think really if you can just stat cash and and be patient You're going to really appreciate yourself for doing so. Um Next year, okay that well that this kind of goes into the next question and Ben I'm sorry with you but It's you pretty much already said it but is now that is he kind of said it But I just wanted to question is is now the time to sell before it gets worse because you were talking about a theorem going down to $600 And I think there's some other videos you've done where you think that it could go down Uh, as far as the total market cap decrease from there. Is there any other options? Should we just sit and wait? Should we be shorting? I'm not offering any financial advice here. Um, good choice. I'll say that I I became bearish on on this market With you in fact, I think you would um, and I mean we were we were on this show talking about how it looks pretty bearish and um You know, I it took me a little bit into Q1 to really commit to that like commit to that stance like I was sort of on like kind of going back and forth on on what I what I really thought but um after after putting in higher lows and and especially with the rejection off the 200 day at 48k Like I I'd basically seen all I really needed to see to To sort of so I mean I I think really the time for me to sell was was back then um, I I do think I I do think that And I've been I've been preaching this for a long time and so far it hasn't happened Um, but I I do think that alts need to go down a lot where there's not only with respect to the os dollar but with respect to bitcoin as well And I think that the narrative that will fuel that will be the regulatory concerns for the altcoin market Right. We have to we have to consider this that if if altcoins are deemed securities That's not necessarily a bad thing. We we trade stocks all the time right and stocks are securities but the problem is that There there might be I mean in the I'm not trying to just spread flood right but in in the united states There might be some questionable things related to can us exchanges List these things on list them You know think back to uh when when the sec filed a lawsuit against ripple a lot of exchanges were D-listing ripple or xrp in the united states, right? They were temporarily delisting it and what if that is Like tip of the iceberg as to what is is about to happen in the altcoin market So i'm just I just want people to think about if if there are regulatory concerns coming Those regulatory concerns from from that perspective aren't going to affect bitcoin now the the ban if there's you know If there's proof of work fun, you know, that could theoretically affect it but the the the regulation on on Things like proof of stake or or just in general like are these things securities if they had ico's that kind of stuff Like that that kind of stuff I think can can really cause a lot of fear very very quickly and and lead to the next leg down in the in the altcoin market And more specifically like the alt bitcoin pairs where it goes back to back to bitcoin I know everyone says that the bitcoin is done and and that it's It's never coming back. I heard the same thing four years ago like the exact same thing I heard four years ago and it went back up So either this time is different or we're just setting up for the same exact thing that we saw Last year market. Yeah, perfect and james. I'll get to you I'll always say this about the the ripple thing is that if the exchanges they say hey We can't list anything that that's a potential security. That's the whole market and every exchange will just do bitcoin That'll be it But there is one thing that makes me makes me think now What a genius move it was for sam bakeman free to put a bunch of money into robin hood Well, now it makes sense because like well if exchanges go down I can't only list so much crypto at least I have my hand into this one Which is equities and I can figure out how to do everything with securities That makes a lot of sense to me and also if anybody doesn't know as I understand it There's a leak that just came out that said that ftx is the leading bidder for the auction of voyager So we'll see that actually works out. So james. This will be this is your wheelhouse, man Is it time to sell and should it would be shorting? I think that'd be the bigger question Yeah, people are just so bearish and they're sitting on the sidelines, but if you just take a simple Simple chart and as you guys know I trade wherever there's money and but you know 90 days ago was the 16th of june and Since then tesla's gone up 43 percent. Okay, so What I would advise people is, you know, if you're just obsessed with crypto things things move in cycles crypto Had all its teeth kicked in And then it was stabbed in the stomach And then somebody cut one of the achilles. I mean it's bad It has been really ugly and now we got the regulatory cloud hanging over it and everything else But chase alpha doesn't matter where it comes from even You can even scalp crypto because one of the beauties of cryptos. It's very volatile. So it has these very predefined ranges And trades 24 seven. So if you're stuck in a full-time job, you know, sometimes a lot of action happens at eight nine o'clock at night my time But again, there there is always I don't want to quote jim kramer, but there's always money to be made somewhere It sounds really cliche and that's what I'd say, but just You know, it's looking at the market with a big lens saying yeah, it's death and destruction. We're all going to die No, that's not that's not how you don't you don't sit out and wait for things to turn around It's always been my opinion because by the time you see things turning around Where you would hear the sentiment change. It's too late. The train has left like as I mentioned 90 days 40 percent tesla a lot of other things are way up off the floor. Look at ethereum Even though it's down around close to the kill zone That I believe I mean that that's been so volatile from the bottom of what 900 straight up to me 2000 back to nearly 1400 there's a lot of A lot of volatility that can be played here. So again, just understand the cycles and the movements understand what's hot what's not And you know follow follow the money keep a close eye on where things are Yeah, and that's those are all good points and you know what you said about, you know, when things shift It's already too late. That's why I watch both of you guys, you know, and especially what what ben was talking about I was like, look, I mean if we take a look at the history and where things can go If the if the 600 dollars is not out of the question And uh, just goes to show you that's there's a lot of different There's a lot of good information out there. He's got to look for it And before we get to the last one I just want to ask everybody who is in the video First of all, thanks for stopping by we do appreciate it If you could start to answer your questions in the chat Then I'll pick them up after this last question and we can roll from there and got here early So the last question and james, since you're up, I'll start with you because let's be honest It's a bullish question bullish undertones Did we miss anything? Uh, the midterm uh potential election bump. Maybe the fed wakes up and says wow We're smart. We we we totally mess this up. Maybe like a cease fire in ukraine then also for everybody There's a link in the description This is the midterm election year stock market performance since 1962 And you can see right here in the middle part before the midterm s and p 500 and then Three months six months and 12 months even nixon's day the one from negative 14 to 13 negative 30 to 20 jimmy carter ron regan crush it. I think the only one did kind of bad was of course Barack Obama when the 2008 financial crisis, but james, what did I miss? What did we miss here that we for the bullish undertones themselves? Yeah, it's an interesting question. There's a lot of ways. I'm just going to answer it the way I feel sometimes, you know, if you talk if you talk about Uh, certain things like um, you mentioned ukraine potential ceasefire. I tracked that very carefully There's a lot of cracks that are appearing in the trust of Putin a lot of dissidents are Dissidents are popping up everywhere in russia. There's a guy on cnn from st. Petersburg. I don't watch cnn, but somebody shared it with me Um, like this is stuff that is unheard of You know, you have gary kasparov your buddy there ben out there very Yeah openly Criticizing putin, you know back in the day he'd be stung with one of those little umbrellas, but Not anymore. I think I think there's a lot of cracks and also The russian army's on the back foot and then I'll hear all these Russian people say no, they're not they're still strong as that but no, it looks really really bad the ukrainian Method of warfare is really effective really working. I don't think the russian soldiers have the heart. So from that perspective, that's good Energy supplies are beefing up in europe. That's good. She is questioning putin That is good. Recession is here the the fedex news yesterday That clearly fedex are kind of like the canary in the mind because they Have the finger on the pulse of exactly how much stuff is being shipped around And that's an early warning indicator. Yes, we're definitely in a recession But a lot of this bad news is factored in so it doesn't take a lot of good news to turn things around And um, so from that perspective, you know q4 historically is always a good quarter Again, we're close to the bottom. We hit the bottom. I think june 16th We're kind of halfway between The bear market rally and the bottom right now For many many assets in fact or some are just bumping up against tops like I mentioned tesla and others. So I think it's It's always darkest before the dawn We have all the darkness right now. I think a few rays of a few rays of sunshine will only help things And I'm talking from a equity market perspective. Mostly. This is a lot of unknowns with crypto But you know, you got people like sam bank when freed plug in the holes As you just mentioned trying to keep liquidity because he knows He's he's invested billions in the space. He doesn't want the whole thing to blow up That's why he spends a lot of time in dc as well lobbying and lobbying works politicians like those little brown envelopes What no way. Yeah, that's crazy. All right, it's a perfect one ben. What do we got here? And did I miss something bullish? I don't think you missed anything. It's pretty pretty gloomy That's right. It is I mean, it's it's not exactly down only you do get bear market rallies The bear market rallies are the few rays of sunshine that I guess come through the clouds, but still a lot of clouds I I From a fundamental perspective it it would seem like The market is especially the crypto market will have another leg down now if everyone Always did what was the most obvious. I'm sure it would not always work out. So yes, so it does exist a chance that the bottom like the bottom is in and You know, we're only going to rally from here I think it makes more sense to put a much heavier probability on Um more downside though, even though even though there's always I guess there's always a chance anything can happen right, I mean the fed could pivot tomorrow and And we kick the can on inflation down the road for for someone else to deal with in in a few years But if if he does what he says he's going to do and if he does what I think he's going to do And if crypto basically follows the same bear market path that it has always followed in 2014 and 2018 When we didn't even have recession concerns really not not to the same degree We did not have this the same issues that we have today Then there's a likely chance of another leg down and I I think investors are preparing for that I think it makes more sense to prepare for that than to than to prepare for you know, some Billed va I don't know just some some rally, right? I'm not saying it can't happen and I'm not saying I don't have any crypto I do have some But I still think cash remains king and And once we get through sort of what I would consider to be another leg down Then we can start talking about if that's the bottom Okay, because I think the question for for me the question really isn't a 17-5 the bottom Although I there's always a chance that it could be right like I'm not going to say that anything is impossible I think the bigger the bigger question that's going to divide Most investors in crypto is is the next bottom The bottom because the next bottom will actually be more in line with what most people would expect For a crypto bear market to look like in terms of taking about a year from the peak Seeing a certain percentage draw down from the all-time high The next bottom will be at that range and at that range all of the indicators will flash because right now like I think like 60 65 percent or so maybe or something like that of the indicators already say, you know There's a good chance the bottom's in Another leg down You're essentially going to have all of the indicators from from bitcoin's history saying that the bottom is in like if bitcoin goes to Like 13k or something like that All the indicators are going to say the bottom's in and I think that is is going to be the bigger question That we have to ask ourselves. Is that the actual bottom? And because there's going to be a lot of evidence for it to be the bottom The only the only That point I think will will just be how bad Does the recession get and does the does the recession merit? A lower low beyond that I think will be the the big question we ask Well, it's like you say, I mean we've never gone through this 2014 2018 We didn't go through recession and of course there wasn't so much debt as much as there is now So I got three things for you. First of all, where do I get that shirt, Ben? What's a few trillion among friends? That's a good shirt I must admit Um my website or store. Not into the kipiverse.com. Oh, you shill. All right, and then also So so don't worry. I've only lost money on merchandise I'm playing I'm playing somewhere else in kansas Perfect. So so ben and james. I mean they did paint a somewhat bleak picture But in the long term, I think it's going to be good just remember We did talk about recession quite a bit But how long do recessions last right 18 months roughly around there and then in between these gaps right here You can see there's a lot of economic growth. So the question I have for everybody really is this and we'll get into questions Is uh, is this such a bad thing if we do bottom out? What if bitcoin really does go to 16k Or 13 whatever it else it is and a theorem does go below 600 around that Is that the worst-case scenario if you could actually accumulate for two years? And we talk a lot about accumulation And I do that a lot of my channel to dollar cross average and so on so forth. I'm not a diamond hands person I think that's dumb Moving forward as we get into more of the other bullish tones I would like to talk more on my channel not these guys They could do what they want to do but about selling because I think that's the missing some of the missing parts We forget because people were so hesitant to talk about it, but it has to be done. I think that's just me in my opinions all right guys, that was great and uh, let's that concludes everything for the News and everything we did let's do a little q&a and get the heck out of here And there was a lot of q&a. I was starring them behind the scenes. We can get you then going Crypto golfer 10 watching eight likes. I think that was the original one. That's okay This one rip crypto. Okay, beardy one raven noodles I'm short eath Uh, big buys it. This is big buys ahead dca when the dji goes below 19 five You know, I don't really know about that. Dolly jones doug jones industrial Yeah Here's one. Yeah, that's a big haircut. That's a huge bear cut bear cut ben is awesome Investments is awesome. Hey james, you're the best. Okay. I just want to prompt everybody's ego. Okay Here goes the questions. What do you think of inflationing 10 percent? Is that possible? We're very pacific inflation Okay, so that It's not going to be sticky on the way down. We're already seeing that it is declining It's not declining as fast as it went up. That's the issue. So there is some stickiness, but we're way past Mr. Cho peak inflation Yeah, jang cho always has good questions. How about is oil is a major part of inflation? I mean, I think in america, we're running off some reserves. We're pumping that out But what happens in the long term, especially this winter especially for the european countries Can we see that that go take off especially in the uk? Well, you got you got some of the big wall street centers that are kind of heavy oil They're predicting 160 dollar oil But right now I think it'll gravitate, you know between 160 bucks 60 bucks is kind of like the floor level for oil I think in this day and age Right now it's way down off the 120 down lower low 80s So I think yeah, we'll see it all depends really on what opac does If much they reduce and where the russian oil actually goes And what the us does if the us have to take their Reserves back to where they were that's going to cause a lot of buying But I think I read somewhere during the week that they were looking to buy at their price target They got a limit order in at 80 bucks a barrel But with that type of volume that they need to purchase that will spike the price a bit So I think we might bounce back to 100 bucks, but it'll be short lived Man makes sense. Okay Ben is for you my man. Uh, what's the derivative of your logarithmic regression function? I don't know if you got that I mean, I I don't have it handy. No Okay, I could I I guess I could plot it. Maybe maybe I'll try to plot it for the next one or something Um, but I I don't have it like I don't have a handy right now. I mean the equation is just Uh y equals like 10 raised to the power a or a times l of x minus b where a and b are fitted coefficients So I mean you can take the derivative of that and get it There's your answer All right, how about this one thoughts on the 20 week sma across the 200 week sma Uh, where's the 20 week right now like 20 24k and the 200 week is that? Um, 23. Yeah, I'd have to go take a look at I don't know exactly where they are. Um Um Yeah, I mean they're getting pretty close. So yeah, I mean it'll it'll happen for sure. Um I think I think what's throwing a lot of people off this cycle are are the moving averages and I think the reason is is um Because we had a double peak cycle We sort of like we we basically had a six month period where Instead of coming straight back down like we normally do and the moving averages make more sense We got up for a few months So like if we had just come down Last summer like in summer of 2021 the 200 week was at like 14k back then like that would have made more sense Right, but instead we like we leveraged ourselves to to 69k and we kicked the can down the road half a year So I think the moving average indicate the moving average indicators are are starting to break down a little bit We've never seen the 20 week cross the 200 week have we? Um, I don't I don't remember that ever being a thing. I don't think they've ever it looks Yeah, they've never actually crossed before So I think this is the issue is that you're seeing uh, we basically had a double peak cycle where You know like the moving average in November Yeah, basically the moving averages were allowed to to to get a lot higher than they would have in any prior bull market When once you had that first major peak you typically just went down after that In a in a relatively in relatively short order like you didn't continue going up or staying at that upper range for You know a year I gotta say this was a very odd cycle. I mean from what it was before Hopefully it plays out a little better next one. We'll see are you both saying this time is different Maybe perhaps so you can look at the chart and see that 20 week has never crossed the 200 and I mean it's going to happen I think it's um, it looks like it's going to happen within a week or two so I mean in that sense it is this has never happened before Um, so that is something to consider. Well, there you go How about this one? I think this would this would come back to what we were talking about before as far as the validators Do you think institutional investors care about a lack of decentralization of e-validators? I'll just take this one first Uh, if I don't think anybody Let me phrase that It's amazing how people forget about decentralization when there's gains involved If if everybody cared about decentralization, I don't think binance coin will be a top five coin and I'll leave it at that What do we got here? You're dead, right rob? institutional investors care about alpha Many probably don't even know what decentralization is or an acav moto efficient coefficient is so I think you said it right I don't like I don't like to say that but it's just the truth. Unfortunately Uh Brett says I'm going to rewind that ben equation try to relax to my wife To lay in my to to sound smart. It's pretty funny Let's see this time. It's different because we were at the end of the fiat cycle Again, I don't think that we're ever going to or we're not going to get off the the dollar anytime soon I know a lot of the gold bugs will tell you that a lot of people in crypto will tell you that I just don't think it's going to happen next year I think of it. I mean all fiat collapses, right? And throughout history, I don't think uh, we're gonna have this at any time soon And and it won't actually collapse. It'll just be heavily reset Sure and more and more controlled So people will have money, but they'll be forced to do things with it that are against their will like spend it And even spend your message, you know I think they'll eventually pivot like I I do think they'll they'll turn the printers on again I just think we're further away from that than people think Well, they just issued a technically one trillion dollars between the IRA and the loan forgiveness program. So That's a trillion dollars. So the Printers hasn't been turned off What are you gonna come from? You know That's why I'm my shirt, right? What's if you chill you in a month? That's a good shirt I gotta tell you. Hey, here's one. I On my show, I don't like to always just do questions but comments that are a little bit on the on the fringe on the outside Bank loan classic. These youtubers push bitcoin so hard because they are trapped. So gentlemen, are we trapped in bitcoin? No, most of my assets If you look at my portfolio, it would be mostly real estate and tesla So but bitcoin is a fascinating topic because it's a hard asset and it gives people a chance To get ahead because it's so finite and so scarce And that's it's worth a fling. I was preaching to people back in 2017. Everybody I knew with kids I said hey buy one bitcoin per child, you know, $3,000. It might go nowhere But in 10 years or 15 years that could really be worth something. Give it a whirl. That's that's what's fascinating about bitcoin and it's completely decentralized and It is the truest hard money if you ask me That's what's fascinating about it. And once the adoption comes if metcalfe's law can exist or is real and things continue the way They are it'll be fantastic to watch your next five to eight years. That's what has me excited Well, that's what that's what some of the some of the big like the paul tuter jones We'll talk about like hey and ray dalio like don't put everything in a bitcoin But just get exposed to it and ben I think for you you're pretty heavy cash right now, right? yeah, i'm pretty heavy cash and Most of what I have in crypto is just um in uh in bitcoin And I mean I I think that it I think that's where you want to be if you're in crypto right now. I mean I've been saying it a long time, but we'll see We'll see where things resolve themselves over the next few months But yeah, I think cash cash is king right now I don't think bitcoin is king like how often have you heard me say like That that bitcoin is where you want to put everything in a bear market No cash is king in a bear market bitcoin is king in in a bull market and I mean bitcoin is King in in the sense of like it it leads the crypto asset class like so like if bitcoin is in a bear market The rest of the market the rest of the crypto asset classes in a bear market bitcoin to the bull market The rest of the asset classes in a in a bull market, but it's certainly not I think cash for me. It's king king right now. Yeah, and I'm personally I'm I'm pretty much resetting I'm heavy real estate and land right now because it's like one of those things that uh First of all it's a tax deduction, which is nice Second of all it can be an appreciating asset And then third of all no matter which way the economy goes if people want to do short-term rentals because they're vacationing fine If they want to do long-term rentals because they got kicked out of their house because they got evicted fine It for me people are always you need a place to stay. So that's why I like I like real estate a little bit better than crypto right now definitely One of the things well for that question regarding bitcoins, but the way And full to search the way my stuff is geared right now You've got to remember If bitcoin does a 3x ethereum might do a 5x and things like selana might do an 8x So structure, you know the the further you go out the risk curve, of course It's more risk, but there's also more return So so keep that in mind for this next bull run whether it hits sometime in 2023 or early 2024 But it'll be fun to watch and that's we just get to the other side everybody That's the message here And don't have all your eggs in one basket, of course Yeah, that's a that's a video for another time as we get to the bullish ones about allocation and diversification And just real quick shout out to the jarchy bergson held it Always giving away Memberships to the youtube channel for some reason. I don't know I keep having this on it's like two dollars For youtube they do kind of membership. You get absolutely nothing for it But it's just a little sticker that you get so jarchy They do I set it up a long time ago and then uh, I just never turned it off now. Here we are So don't worry. You don't have to have a membership. It's my channel or my website. They're both free, but uh, But you could have one you could yes, exactly. You could I could do this. It wasn't so damn lazy, but yeah Thank you. I appreciate it Oh, this is good one another one jingam chow the unemployment will probably rise to six to seven percent now Here's a question. Why and I think it's gonna be the one the last ones. We got to get out of here Why is unemployment been so stubborn? Is it because people are just doing gigs? Are they doing part-time? But it seemed like it doesn't really go up But anyhow employment probably rise to six to seven percent and price stability hasn't gone down Much of two percent five percent regional Will the fed put depression to kill inflation or pivot? That's a good question Ben Ben only start with you because ben's got the I I think I mean, I think it's a lagging indicator is the issue is one of the issues like I think unemployment's a lagging indicator Um, and then also it's sort of manipulated to some degree or maybe the definition of it isn't always the best because sometimes it might seem low uh for for for reasons like Some people just aren't looking for work, but it can go up. It can go up quickly If people are are really feel the tough times because of what the fed's doing It can go up quickly once they decide they have to go go back to work Or think about people who have retired who who maybe thought they were going to to to live off Some something right some of their some of their retirement and now and maybe in order to make ends meet They have to they feel like they have to get a job again just because you know, everything has just gone down recently Uh, and then also you I think one of the reasons it's it's been been so low is Or one of the reasons why like the jobs reports haven't been as bad is because some people have been getting multiple jobs Um, which which I think also makes up part of it But I I think that is I mean that's the thing like once employment once unemployment really starts to go up Yeah Then you'll then there's going to be a hope of the fed pivot and that's why I keep saying like the the Once the recession is probably about two thirds of the way over That's usually when I think the stock market bottoms By the way unemployment usually I think the stock market bottoms while unemployment well before unemployment peaks Because they're they're pricing it in I believe ahead of that so It almost seems like almost too obvious at some point and I and sometimes I'm like What am I missing if it seems like too obvious? But that's my my base case is that unemployment needs to go up for a while The fed will pay this but they're not going to pivot this year. I'll probably pivot You know anytime next year Yeah, so the the the problem with the jobs numbers as well multiple full ben you hit on a couple one Some people have two or even three jobs Sometimes they work six hours a week eight hours a week and that's considered a full-time job and that's a problem in addition Uh, they say about nine million people will be off payroll because they were doing summertime gigs Ah, yeah, yeah jobs that's going to change when they see the september numbers And a whole bunch more it's all it's all contrived. They they they say oh inflation is zero percent Like the president actually said that and they say all-time record job growth is like come on Like if they were all, you know $100,000 a year white collar jobs fair enough, but they're wage jobs You know two or four eight 10 15 hours a week and some people have multiple jobs and then doing uber on the side and everything else That's the problem. So again, you can't believe any of the government numbers Including cpi. Yeah, unfortunately that is the truth. All right. Well guys we're coming up on almost an hour here So I just want to say thanks again for stopping in and dropping some pretty good information here again Everybody if you want to look for james and ben you probably are subscribed to them because there's always overlap But links are in the description also for the patreon and for uh into the cryptiverse.com website And that's it for today. So guys, I think we're done unless we miss something Nope, nope. Let's do it. All right Looking to pull right I'm going to jump in the pool right after we end the broadcast But only for james and ben and then uh later on when we hit 100k i'll do it All right guys, thanks so much for stopping by appreciate it. We'll see you guys on the next one. Adios