 Sam, if you want to just do a quick introduction, I'm just going to quickly sort the description out. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Hi guys. Welcome to our live feed for the next hour or so. I'm going to cover the data. We'll have a little preview ahead of that and we'll run through the charts, what's expected, some areas to be aware of, and also we'll go into a bit more detail following the release as well, welcoming the end of the week, end of the month, and ahead of the US cash open as well, 2.30 UK time, so an hour after the release could be an interesting period. So before we go live and any questions, please do fire away for those that are on Ampify Live, you've got the Zoom, Q&A, you've got the chat function, so please just fire them along whenever myself and Ant will be with you for the duration, everything's set up pretty well, stocks hitting those lows, knocking on the door. I mean, if you looked at Twitter this morning, Ant, it would be Armageddon out there, not quite though. Yeah, that was the main talking point. So the latest podcast, The Market Watch, we put out just a short while ago and Piers and I were having a chat about that, and it's always just so interesting, obviously it's in the media's interest to play up, it's like it's the doom day scenario, this is it, the correction is on, we have a toppy, this is it now, and it's just way ahead of itself in my opinion. So hopefully, the briefing that I do in the morning, hopefully people were able to listen to that, and one of the things I was trying to suggest here was that, look, this move that we've been seeing this week could have some more legs to run, but if you're looking for the Fed then to buckle, and this is kind of like the market be the Fed challenge, and I just don't see that really playing out. The whole, I think a lot of what's happened has been driven by a number of different factors, I was talking about as well this morning with some of the guys about these hedge funds are a trend following, and this has been broken out, if you have a trend following strategy then a breakout of a yield in the 10 years we've seen beyond that of then the pre-pandemic levels, it's going to create, it's going to exacerbate market conditions and I think that's largely a large portion of what we've seen, and there's so many people of course, who you and I know who are like have been plowing into equities at these levels over the last couple of weeks, just getting really brought up into this whole I want to invest in the stock market mantra, and the market then comes off as it has done 5%, 6%, 7%, and that feels pretty painful then at that point, whereas ultimately you and I know in particular yourself being a perma equity bull that if this market comes down and even now, I mean, well look, let's start there, with this S&P, where would you feel comfortable with a correction if taking place, or not even a correction, a further deeper pullback where you would want to just look to re-enter and build back into that more medium long-term position? No, I'm waiting 3600, so just above your 35, 92, I guess if I were to be really specific that would be the area I like, I like the look at that, I think that would be about 10% from the high, I think that's good enough, I mean, to be completely honest, are we going to get 10%, are we going to get 10% low of these highs? I'm not completely sure, but I like it there, and I think that's a good sort of value area for the next leg to the upside. I regretted on the first of Feb, that 3656, I was waiting for 3600 and I didn't get in, so the following 300 points were hard to take watching that, but as things go, what comes up sometimes does come down, and it looks at the moment like we can do that, but 3800, such a big, big technical area where, look, we have an inline or poor data release today in terms of not beating those expectations, and why isn't this now the low for the next few weeks? It could be, couldn't it? So 3600 is what I've got my eyes on. There's some individual stocks I like the look of as well, but really I'm just waiting to see what happens, 130, and then of course it's the last day of the week as well and month, so I'm keen to get involved next week onwards. Yeah, and I was having a look this morning, just what's in store, I mean, obviously this this PCE number coming out is definitely of interest, but then you've got next week, you get all the latest ISM manufacturing, non-manufacturing, you've got payrolls, you've got stimulus, kind of like D-Day, let's get this through now, this Biden bill, so there's a lot of factors there that could promote an extension, possibly of this kind of yield focus or it's not going to go away anytime soon. It's interesting coming back to the intro day that things like if I look at the S&P here and the T-note just underneath it, I mean we're just poised, it feels like that's just a classic range, right? I mean it's a big, big range for some extent, we're talking about 40 points here, but it has been respecting that, that bottom side of that is also that low you can see from what beginning of the week or 23rd, and T-notes here, if you think about it, this is a yield story that's driving these movements and that's moving the equity market and look at how quiet T-notes are right now after that day yesterday. I mean it's definitely, I mean this price action's got to give right in either direction at some point, I mean it'd be very unusual I think given the context of this week that we're just going to sit here and just see it out in a very tight range around the pivot, so yeah definitely if that breaks out to downside, let's say this PCE number is particularly high for example, then that obviously would feel, found the flames of the short-term perspective of inflation, but like we've got the squawk on and for the figures, they made a good point and it was look, the Fed have been clear, right? We've had this, we've had the semi-annual testimony this week and the Fed have said basically that we ain't going to do anything, we're just going to stay where we are and this goes into the analogies that Piers and I were talking about this morning about look, the market's just got to have this little semi-shakeout and the Fed have just got to survive that shakeout and then just go on because ultimately this inflation, the belief that we have many on the street is that it is temporary of nature, it's not going to be long-lasting and the Fed are looking, the Fed communication is, they're looking through what is inevitably going to be a pickup in inflation over the next period ahead in the short-term, so again I'm not looking at this data as like, oh my god the Fed, the Fed have got to pull the trigger now, it's nothing like that, it's more about does it feel the psyche currently dominating investors' minds in the short-term, which is this kind of inflation focus and so yeah, if that does happen, obviously if yours move higher with equities, I mean I was looking in the briefing, Sam at the NASDAQ, you know you said about the S&P but I think the NASDAQ on the daily chart as well as looking interesting at these lower levels which is around that 12, 727, I have the brief flirt through it, it failed to sustain the break though but that's obviously quite key for today because a break substantially of here which has held up price for the best part of the last several weeks means then that surely we've got to gap down pretty quick, I mean that's only a 2.6, 2.7% move to get down to there. Yeah I mean that's what that off the highs now is that nearly 10% isn't it off the of the highs I guess you could you know the as common a word is yielded at the moment is the word rotation, so you know that's why I guess we're under a bit more pressure there as well then the NASDAQ but yeah key level there, the Dow, I mean the Dow Jones was at an all-time high yesterday, so yeah I mean I was looking at the Dow shape, I mean check that out. Yeah incredible isn't it, but then you can take out yesterday and the day before, yeah I mean you're exactly right I mean actually if you just yeah eradicate some of that and take that you know kind of area here 31, 170, it is range bound largely but yeah that was pretty explosive on the prior session but you know this is it's similar here I mean that looks pretty pronounced but it's the same kind of deal in the FX market at the minute looking at Stirling on a daily continuation, I mean forget looking on a 30 and on a 90 minute and thinking okay that looks for February okay fine that's a bit of a pullback but we're still up massively from where we were at the beginning of Feb, we were all the way down here at 135 handle so it doesn't look that frightening right in perspective away from the intraday which looks like that when we sold off it looks pretty one-dimensional but then if you look at a daily I mean look look where the pound was we were at 126, 127 only at the end of set we've gone all the way up to a 143 type area so yeah I mean I don't know about you but I still feel pretty bullish the pound yeah I do I mean look the weekly candles on those currency pairs that look horrendous right now but the monthly looks okay on the pound and I think those 2018 highs the 144 area I think does come in does come in for the pound so you know there are some big areas of support for pound related products I mean look there you go 13760s looks like a really nice place to maybe get in again so maybe we drift lower before that next leg higher today could move things obviously in the dollar space quite a lot but yeah overall I'm still still bearish the dollar against these these main pairs okay well look I'm gonna switch the score gone we've got about a minute to the data now so yeah just quickly guys call PCE index the month-to-month expected 0.2% year-in-year expected 1.4 can you hear that all right Sam the score minute now for the state of the U.S. a bit louder ideally 12% month-to-month consumption is rising 2.5% month-to-month the PCE the month-to-month is rising 0.2 to the core metric and the year-in-year seems going to 1.4 from 1.5 after we dispatch for that we'll have a look at the demand's goods the components for that and then the economic producer prices it's about 10 seconds about 10% for the personal income to wait for the consumption yeah it's context that 10% against a expectation 9.5 if this may be delayed from wise and getting that data so just while waiting the advanced goods trade balance looks like 1.5% for the PCE year-in-year also look in the trees at 1.3% from a prior revised up 0.5 export to retail in the trees down 0.2 their core PCE year-in-year 1.5% that's the expected 1.4 so just 1.2 expected month-to-month the year-in-year core PCE at 1.5% versus a prior revised down 1.4 that's been a ticker in those core inflation metrics meanwhile looking at the headline PCE that comes at 0.3 month-to-month parenting 0.4 and the year-in-year at 1.5% from 1.3 and meanwhile Canadian produce prices 2% month-to-month versus 1.5 prior year-in-year 4% versus 1.8 the raw materials prices up 5.7% year-of-year a big part of the month that's from 3.5% and the year-over-year at 6.2 from it made it 0.7 and as we're looking to know real price of action being seen after these data just to recap personal income rises 10% up for month, polls looking for 9.5% consumption rises 2.4% slight missed the 2.5% forecast remember this is likely to be driven by that stimulus check that Americans got at the beginning of the year the inflation gauge is core PCE at 0.3 that's a little bit above 0.2 forecast the year-on-year gauge however at 1.5 from 1.4 and as we mentioned fell likely to look through these data but we do believe that there'll be fuel for some of the hawks who are negotiated stimulus. Yeah just just jumping in there I just wanted to comment and you know equities in tea notes very minor tick up and for me that's behavioural this number is 0.1 higher than expected but people are so like inflation focused and hyped that actually 1.5.1 higher is actually a disappointment for those people and they're actually like hang about what 1.5 0.3 month a month against 0.2 expected which is the same as previous well that's let us down a little bit for people who are looking for this pending inflation surge and so I don't actually read anything into that data from a top-level macro perspective but from a behavioural perspective I think what why you're seeing a bit of an uptick here in equities is that people are waiting for this and people might have been positioned thinking that what if we get I mean top side of the range was 1.7 so what if we got 1.8 what if we got 1.9 what if the Fed got this wrong and inflation is actually already like poor PCEs going through the roof of course that's not the case and this is kind of pays he to the whole runaway mentality that the market you know it somewhat has exacerbated a lot of the market reaction the movement this week so yeah equities actually a little bit of a pickup the 10-year I mean look it's the it's the tiny movement but it's just come back off some of the recent lows and back up towards its pivot what do you think Sam yeah I mean I'm a bit gutted really I wanted fireworks a really good number and it's not that so look for me Tim just put a comment in our our discord room all-time highs next next Friday I agree I agree look I mean we've got data points out next week where the story can change but for this next leg lower and yes they've moved to be justified we haven't seen the data that that should should lead to that so I don't know I prefer the moves to the upside now I think interesting though to to watch gold gold's not having it you know this number for me should help gold push higher and it's not doing that just yet so I'm keeping a watch on that but yeah overall it's not a good enough number for me to be selling at market on stocks you know as always it's a trade what you see but I'm not selling so let's just have a look at some of these US indices then as they see a minor positive reaction so the S&P's just coming up to have a look at around the the high end of the range that was the overnight Asia pack high that was here and then you had the European open high here coinciding with that you've also got in the NASDAQ which has obviously been quite hard hit in recent weeks so we had a bit of a breakout I mean it did come back through there but then that was through late yesterday evening when we we just kind of sentiment soured into the close and then Asia followed through we're coming back up to that point now and you got the pivot sat above so how would you kind of view that level Sam yeah well I said I don't want to sell but if if I was bearish and I saw a good reaction around there that'd be an area I'm looking at so on the flip side the way I would look at this from you know more of a bullish perspective is well what happens if we break that level to the upside get a bit of confirmation above their you know 15 minute closes for examples above those pivot levels then I think we can push on yes we've got the cash open less than an hour away but this would certainly be a zone where we're coming into of resistance where the bears need to take control because we finished the week above those sort of lows from yesterday afternoon and previously on in the week i.e. the pivot level now you know it's a victory for the bulls regardless of us moving moving to the downside so yeah rips like slight risk on equity space but then yeah I think we need to obviously clear clear up those pivot levels and and that trade would come to fruition so if we can get some of the other guys on maybe just ping them the link yes peers will let me invite those guys on so yeah I mean the pretty pretty tame reaction overall I mean I don't think you could have expected too much else to be honest that different and so the open on Wall Street is obviously going to be important the equity market definitely has been a focal point of activity this week you know the NASDAQ had its biggest down day yesterday since October so it's going to be interesting to see how we can see off this this week so look Sam and I are going to be on for next hour or so at least because we want to cover through obviously keeping on energy products as we go through the next half an hour or so particularly WTI we can talk about a bit more detail then we'll we'll drill into some of the equity stories as well and have a look at that ahead of the NAISI Open yeah look forward to it look forward to it so uh sell the the latest podcast to me and I'm looking forward to listening to it sell the latest podcast yeah um last week was fantastic really really sort of put things in perspective for me so I'm looking forward to this one no pressure yeah I mean look let me while we're on let me just quickly flash it on the screen so people know because this is a relatively new thing um people you know people people asking for a podcast for a while and you know I'm not I'm not the biggest consumer of podcasts so finally got it got my act together and we've uh myself and the head of trading peers um so peers and I would normally have a catch up anywhere at the end of the week as you know when we're in the office in a non-pandemic time you know you nip next door but have a have a catch up you know outside of the office and we would talk about stuff that's going on in markets and we just basically wanted to convert that into a informal catch up at the end of the week via a podcast and so that's what this is and we released the latest one today so if you check it out the link I put into the chat but um if you go here this gives you a bit of a summary so we talk about this whole move um that's been happening in markets we talk about correlations we talk about what we think about the Fed and a kind of analogy of the Ferber method which I know any any father's mother's out there will be familiar with and then good to see I've got the main man himself because we talked a little bit about FOMO and we talked about it on we touched on it on the podcast but I know there's someone who who loves the subject of FOMO which is which is Will so Will how's it going? Yeah very good thank you hi and hi Sam yeah a bit dull on that back day for Elise I think someone like me who loves a bit of action would love that inflation figure to come out way higher than expected and then just got absolutely stuck into some movement but no not not yet and I agree with you guys that the path of lease resistance is higher um look about FOMO I just think there's I've the last time I saw this much new interest in trading and financial markets was when we started Amplify January 2009 and that's because every movement was covered in the papers everyone was looking at huge volatility and just a whole wave of people wanted to get involved I think the big danger out there when you know new traders seeing this type of volatility is feeling like they're missing everything right I remember I don't know if you saw a Davey Day trader on on Twitter talking about Game Stock when it went 100% two days ago and he's like who did who made the call why wasn't I on this right and then I think then instead of buying Game Stocks I think he missed it he then bought AMC or Nokia or something and lost a ton of money and actually that's so common with new traders and volatility in that they see everything that's happened and it's very easy to kid yourself that had you been there at the right place in the right time you would have taken these opportunities and and you try to start saying oh I should have got that I could have got this and not realize that and volatile markets that they're here to stay right there's so much going on at the moment if you miss an opportunity learn from it think about what you know at least your analysis was right but the main thing without any question you said to Anthony on your masterclass series what's the your guest name on Wednesday Bilal ah he was excellent he was excellent super experienced and he was saying the first rule for any new trader is knowing how not to blow up after that everything can be a slow progression of continued experience but I think what what we'll be seeing with this type of volatility is you know everybody expecting huge moves huge action all the time chopping and changing and I mean even just this week you know look at some of the stock prices this week like if you look at British Airways or Tui it's been up five percent down five percent up five percent down five even stocks like Royals Royce up seven percent down ten percent daily and it's just it's amazing to watch you know and I after this many years sort of learned to to just enjoy it and I'm not not not not to panic too much but I do think there's there's a danger I don't know if anyone watching this feels the same there's a danger of getting sucked in of being drawn into the action and then the critical point here is that if your timing is slightly off it's absolute curtains because you're going to be buying every high and selling every low and you're it's gonna you're going to be I don't know if anyone's experience that that's watching you'll be out of sync out of sync with the moves and then the harder that you start trying the worse it gets my favorite German word verschelem verschelem besserem which means trying harder and just making things worse in the end and everybody I'm sure knows that when you're out of sync right you just keep on trying so well I just guess what I want to to share on FOMO is if you're sitting back and watching and learning that's good right if you can think about what you're doing beforehand and then the opportunity rises and you take it that's good if you identify an opportunity and don't take it and it worked out that it would have been great well that's good too because it shows your thought process is correct but don't beat yourself up thinking I knew that was going to happen and should have done it and enter because your timing will be off and in these markets if you're if your timing is off you'll end just a whole room of pain awaits you and then you know for you and I having you know gone through these kind of episodes of almost focused attention on certain subjects it's there's always there's always another big story there's always another kind of this is the one this is the thing and from my point of view it's yeah it's definitely good and this is another good thing from that that talk that I have with Bilal this week it was like look it's great to be involved in monitoring it and the markets day to day but sometimes you just got to take a step back oh yeah and then just look at it from a from a distance itself from it be objective and think okay so what is the broader trend and you know he did he did make a good point about the way that you you know people present research or findings and often people will show you what they want to show you look this correlation is really tight with this correlation which means this but actually they're trying to curate a narrative to what's happening and actually step out of it and you know they might tell you a different picture I think with FOMO and psychology though even before that it's more about self-awareness right because you can't take a step back and look at it if you don't know that you need to take a step if you don't know that you need to take a step back so even before that it's understanding yourself and actually quite enjoying the physical flags that you get so I had it when I was um and obviously looking at the VIX today Sam which I'm completely out of um you know and immediately that that that surge of emotion comes damn it I knew that was going to happen and then you almost the more experience you get the more you kind of then can look at it on that bigger perspective you know and not not necessarily laugh about it but say well look it's actually just back to where it was three days ago when you got out anyway so net net it's fine and not to take it too too seriously you can't be on every move you can't be on every piece of action don't expect to be but as long as you can learn from those that you've missed learn from those that you should have been in then then you're here for the long term yeah completely don't do that you'll blow up don't you agree Sam yeah completely completely I mean I got in the VIX too early last week so I took a little loss and and yeah you just got accepted you know just thinking the future I'm going to be taking these kind of opportunities and if you lose you learn from it so as long as you learn from every trade then like you said it helps with that longevity of being in this game yeah just um well because I know you're super busy one one chart I want to flash your way and get a comment on is this one hit me let's have a look this is the bitcoin future oh yeah so I've got here a bit of a a bit of a markup so this is when Tesla came in so this is going back to around eighth of the month and so we were trading below 40 000 we obviously got close to 60 000 yeah and now we've pulled back and I think it's been down as much as 23 24 percent from the initial high so what what's the current kind of pulse on this do you think in terms of price movement look I mean I think it could it's if I took my bitcoin off around 33 because I thought that was that was phenomenal I think even if we're we're back down to 30 net net over like a month view this is still a phenomenal bull run isn't it I mean it yeah it doesn't matter I think the danger with with bitcoin with some of these fomos is your timing on these hyper volatile products is absolutely crucial so whilst we're mucking around down here to be honest there's no particularly trade on on the long for me I think the longs might come back in once we break above that resistance level you've got 51065 that you've highlighted with the red bar until we get back above there leave it alone if we get back towards that sort of you know not even the 40s I mean even even around the 30 handle then then then you might be interested in buying a dip but um yeah for bitcoin for me this is the most important thing about this is you know Sam and you know Anthony it's not knowing when to trade it's every time knowing when not to trade when not to be involved and this is a perfect example do you remember Elon Musk's photo on Twitter that you shared with him being shall we say distracted by bitcoin Anthony right you remember that image oh yeah um so so so so now's not the time for that just just just leave it alone there's plenty of other stuff going on I think the danger is if you've been used to seeing 20 percent 30 percent pops and these wild moves for somebody that's been involved in involved in bitcoin now you know like trading gold is just going to seem so dull to them but so saying that this is gold on a daily chart and we had a flood with the November low there so how are you guys feeling about gold at the minute at these levels well well I mean as I've been saying with Tim I've been scaling out on my goal I could have got out I could have got out of my gold positions way better towards the end of last year certainly I did start to scale out and got tiny parts on now I just think I just think no one's interested no one's interested in the gold story it's not what people are looking at if people start to be interested again I'm interested again right but one of the things is about understanding markets it's all about understanding people and it's behavioural no one cares about gold at the moment doesn't seem that way to me I mean it obviously you know one of the things about gold is yeah it's a great inflation hedge on one side but is it it's not acting that way in fact it's more acting in response to interest rates and so yeah I think I think again gold's another one to leave at the moment you could expect yeah why not you know test down to the 1700 mark back to where we were in in June and actually if you then scroll out and put this on a monthly chart again that doesn't change the picture not really right you know if you push that down so can you see that would just make make quite a nice retest of that 1676 level I mean in the longer term doesn't change the picture too much but I'm not yeah I'm definitely not watching gold as closely as I was because I don't feel like other people are watching it at the moment does that make sense and it yeah it's quite hard to to do but it's just realising that you might be at the wrong party and this one sucks it's moved to another one I think you explained that perfectly well to me so I think that's right I think attention is elsewhere and and gold isn't the shiny object it once was right now at the moment yeah I mean I I just feel like it's um yeah attention is elsewhere but one of the things was one of the best pieces of research I read coming into this year was was just basically saying something along the lines of like this rally is phenomenal and potentially it's here to stay but at some point in 2021 2022 you might be better off taking some money off the table and I still agree on that at the moment I think these valuations are phenomenal but the volatility you know if you can't if you're in a large size volatility is going to hurt yeah large exposure and volatility a very sick trader make right and you all know that feeling that that rent I was actually speaking to um one of Goldman Sachs actually fantastic uh meeting I had yesterday with uh used to be head of trading at Goldman Sachs multi multi multi multi millionaire talking about investment in ed tech and projects like this and and he was talking about the need for anybody in trader to feel that deep interior of despair to feel that wretch and be able to deal with it and and that's true that is a learning process but you can you know you don't want to be going through that daily so in this type of volatility do you think you have to just try and be comfortable with the size that you have at risk and then when something happens this is definitely the way I'm playing at moment if something happens when something happens great I would I do want to be on it but yeah I mean stocks could go S&P could go back up to its highs or sell off 5% today either one makes sense to me when you in that type of market it's uh it's hard to call it yeah no no it's interesting the timing that you said about 2021 2022 and taking some off the table perhaps because I think that's a really interesting time horizon because for me that's when this whole stimulus we're out the vaccination is kind of done to a certain extent the reopening has occurred the economy's gone through a massive acceleration phase and then it's things start to things start to slow down a little bit because now the stimulus isn't coming left right and center anymore and that's been factored in that reopening phase then it's like well where do we go then and can then we're going to be I would say on balance higher inequities with where we are at the moment so then we're even further down that road and then what happens so that that will be further on a very interesting period I think as well till to come no problem biding biding your time but listen guys I've got to make a move enjoy the rest of the session yeah let's let's take a look at oil just ahead of seven minutes coming up until 2 p.m. London so we normally see a bit of a pick up in volume and yeah just wanted to have a glance at oil on the on the daily and it's just been on a on a tear really for for some time over the period of the last you know kind of month we've seen a decent breakout of price from what was then I mean look where we were kind of pre the full blown pandemic we're kind of trading here we broke out above there having found some resistance to price in the mid lat part of January then we've shot up and now we're at a level around 6340 which was the high that we printed back and do you remember that do you remember I can tell you where you were I can tell you where you were as well so this is when me me and Sam were sunning it up in in Tuscany and Italy at the time and I remember getting a couple of couple of messages people going have you heard the news the Saudi news and that was when the drone strike happened and we had this historical large gap up in prices and so that's that's basically where we're trading at the moment and above here obviously 65 then becomes you know very meaningful if we start looking at the last couple of years dated but yeah oil has been very bullish as has other industrial based metals like copper for example if we're looking over a weekly period because of this whole growth prospect picking up because of generally a perception that economies are going to reopen and when that happens then things are going to fire up US data has been very strong similar is coming someone and so forth throw in then a deep freeze nationwide across America that happened last week and as much as that's thought out the idea here that you know things like OPEC even if they do reintroduce a degree of production which offsets a little bit the depths of their supply cut they're still supporting the market at this point and then there's you know Tim one of the other traders here talks about a lot is the chronic lack of investment in the US shale production and generally that's going to put a squeeze when demand is going to explode as we go through the reopening phase so yeah definitely there's reasons here with the world and you know just to be clear in terms of the news flow this morning this US intelligence report about Khashoggi that's going to show that basically MBS had him taken care of as much as that sounds pretty sensational it really has no consequence I don't believe in terms of the price of well look at the price of all today it's done the opposite then if that was a theoretical move and you were thinking wow that's going to really flare up tensions between the US and Saudi it's funny that Khashoggi is in the news today where we're exactly the same that day incredible yeah it's funny how these things work out but yeah look the Biden administration is just bedding in there's been a really good TV documentary that was being on I don't know if you caught it it wasn't last night the night before and it's about Trump and his presidency and there was a three-part series and the last episode was about Asia so it was talking about the trade war with China and the nuclear situation with North Korea and then what Trump was doing it's really fascinating because it interviews all the right people McMaster, Lighthizer like all the main movers and shakers and it gives you an idea of what it was like to work with Trump which it's on BBC so yeah yeah I think it's on BBC and it sounds like horrendous because Trump would just like you know shoot from the hip a lot of the time without real credible kind of I guess strategy behind a lot of decisions but the long story short Biden administration coming in if you think about the news cycle that's been happening of late you've had Iran and this whole idea about what are we going to do with sanctions the return to nuclear 2015 kind of a barma-led agreement is that going to happen so that's that's really its head again you've got China the US military naval ships flying down in Taiwan across the sea war game exercises flexing the muscles so why do countries do this I mean it sounds pretty provocative action but actually this is what you do it's it's kind of like me going for a meeting with Sam and I've never met Sam before and I want him to know that I'm a serious player so I just make noises so he knows that I'm coming at it with some serious you know with serious intentions and so we negotiate in a slightly different way I mean this is just a nature of what these countries do and then you throw in the Saudi mix so at the moment you've got Iran he got China of which I must stress Biden's approach is the same as what Trump was doing because China is a credible long-term implications in terms of what the US has got to do in order to somewhat get along with or control the inevitable superseding of power in the end to China and not that that's going to happen anytime soon but that is their number one competition and trade partner and then number three you've got Saudi so if you think about it there's Iran China and Saudi all yet really Biden needs to sort out in terms of what's the policy stance and relationship he's going to hold with these people and at the moment it's all kind of talking tough flexing the guns and the muscles at the moment with China Iran kind of the same and then with Saudi the relationship is going to if anything be much more sensitive now that the US are calling them out in terms of what we already know right this it's not it's not rocket science to know what went on with Khashoggi but how do they deal with that you know the Saudis this is where the relationship comes in the Saudis have got vested interest in the US stock market they have ownership on large multi-nationals they have an arms agreement and military alliance with America in a situation where tension is rising in Iran it's not just like oh you killed this guy that's it the relationship's off there's a lot of of layered kind of understanding to this relationship and you know why does a conservative Islamic nation have such an alliance with a Christian nation like the US well it's a relationship born out of need on various different levels and so you know they've got the black stuff that we want as far as America concerned and geographically sat in a very sensitive area that would help militarily control that region and they also buy a large degree of our arms and then on the flip side you've got Saudi who have a non-existent military force in a hotbed of activity for confrontation with their historical enemy which is Iran so there's a lot of stuff there that Biden needs to figure out and really show his hand and you know when I think about all these things beyond you know the narrative which is the vaccine which is the dominant factor for oil and commodity prices right now which is this growth pricing in at the moment there's so many things there that I think I do think that oil I do think the oil goes higher I think it goes well let's put some calls out there while we're here let's let's not beat around the bush get the daily charts up what we all you think it is in like target before it starts to come down for a bit or yeah yeah so we go 65 no problem so then read let's have a look I think 70 is is a good enough area I think for yeah I think that I mean and then it's 75 so we're 70 though do you know you know so but then if you go 70 what's five more bucks between friends um it I mean Tim in the chat has just said oil is going to rip forget 65 70 is happening yeah I think definite well I say definite nothing's definite but I'm I feel strongly about 70 bucks there's the beyond 65 which I think will break and that will be meaningful given the multi-year significance of that level when we get to 70 I think then it becomes a case of not going 75 plus then breaking out above this 2018 high I think then it's like okay where are we at at this point in time I guess you've got to think about timeline when is this going to happen I think ultimately you are going to get this massive acceleration of economic growth really take hold because at the moment the market yield move we're seeing is pricing in that happening when that actually starts happening and actual economy activity starts picking up and subsequent demand for oil you know planes can fly again the people can go on holiday and do stuff goods can be manufactured and exported sold and bought because people have more confidence and there's stimulus sloshing around still um then yeah I do think we we get to a period where we kind of consolidate now what that range might be well 75 65 or 65 provides a bit of a floor once we get through it yeah and then that will see us through then for the months thereafter that's probably how I'd see it at this point I asked um a question on my my instagram and twitter and it was will oil ever go negative again and I personally think people were just having me on by saying yes but it wasn't it wasn't a clean sweep of of nose you do you can you see that happen in again um well if it's happened once it can happen again what's the probability that happening I'd say it's very small um I if you have to think about then a lot of that move was to do with things like um what is it USO and the oil ETFs related to then their position holding in certain futures contracts and how they had to roll out of contracts because they're all kind of concentrating in certain areas and so beyond the kind of um full infantry situation being at at cushing and stuff like that where there's no storage and so on you have to remember it's kind of like I can't remember who I spoke to they were talking about the comparisons or parallels with the taper tantrum of 2013 it's like the same with oil and what's happened in April of last year or May whenever it was and it was now that that's happened don't forget people are now aware of what to look for and that it has happened before so the first time something happens obviously the movement and reaction effect is amplified comparative then to when it happens again that whole kind of you know once you see and hear something multiple times doesn't matter how dramatic it is it becomes then normalized and so I think by the time people start clocking on that okay for whatever reason there's a there's some sort of storage issue whatever catalyst might create that let's say I don't know we have another renewed pandemic on the back of a mutation or something like that um then I think then the appropriate things would happen too quickly and ahead of time to allow what was then a panicked situation where people were bailing positions at the last minute because they had to which then subsequently resulted in that negative price so personally I think it's very hard to see it again um not impossible as we've seen right yeah so well let's have a look in the chat then is there and we've got the open 25 minutes yeah that's it with the chat it will never happen again yeah I don't disagree with that I mean in terms of probabilities and then look I mean imagine 365 days ago someone says to you you know what I reckon all it was going negative you look at them like what what work do you know what I said that when when uh Bernanke first said we should do QE everyone was like what and because because I was talking to um uh some new traders early in the week and it was uh particularly when they you've not been exposed to markets that long and you you kind of make the assumption that yeah QE is just normal it's just normal and it's yeah you're right it's it's hard to factor in you know when people talk about negative rates you remember when that was a thing now it's kind of bedded in as just part of the toolkit yeah now so I definitely do think that you know markets and particularly central banks and the like are very good at being creative in finding other ways and means beyond what's available now that in the future might become new ways to to try and manipulate the lending environment or liquidity whatever that might be and then and then it becomes yeah you know when I started my career it was so easy all right it was just like oh GDP is strong retail sales are up right so rates go up and then it goes bad and rates go down it was just kind of quite binary but obviously nowadays it's so much more complex about you know it's good bad it's bad good it's bad bad how bad is bad does it mean like more QE and if so what's the composition of it what's the you know what's what's the average bucket of the maturity they're targeting what's the capital key in the eurozone what's then like the Lisbon treaties parameter threshold and all this stuff like it is more complicated now than than it probably was I'd say yeah but simplifying it I think with central banks you know when when the hits the fan then they just do what's necessary and I think you know we're we're not out of the pandemic yet and so I don't think there's any reason for them to change course right now and you know Europe is case in point you know Europe is so far so far behind in that respect to the vaccine and the reopening that you know there's definitely no way the ECB could start making any type of noises at all anytime soon anything other than adding a more stimulus whatever shape or form that is what do we expect at the market open on Monday yeah there's Chinese official manufacturing non-manufacturing PMIs coming out the weekend how important are they I don't I don't think they're massively important China data was the Chinese data was like on fire for a quite a period it softened a tiny bit recently but it's still expansionary in most of these readings so the data there's been pretty solid you remember I think it was earlier this week maybe Tuesday Asia pack session I think the Chinese equities had like their worst performance in six months or so so it was almost at the point as well in China where too good means well hang about are they going to stop adding liquidity are they going to start tightening policy and that caused their market to just have some temporary downside that was was quite heavy on the actual session but over the weekend you know that there used to be a period you remember Sam where at the weekend you were kind of like oh what might happen with the virus over the weekend we don't know but that ship has sailed yet because the trajectory of viruses has become a lesser concern now the the idea about mutations remember that was a thing probably eight 10 weeks ago maybe three months ago when the first one happened in when Kent in the UK and then South Africa Brazil that's also I think that ship has sailed to a certain degree because what was the greatest fear was a dramatic mutation rendering vaccines redundant hasn't really materialized and so it's hard to see that happening again could it yes will it low probability so you're willing to look beyond it so that's not much of a risk anymore over the weekend the Chinese data don't think as much of a risk really I think it's about then this current narrative of yields spooking people and equities coming under some pressure and perhaps then room to come off a little bit giving it reason to come off some of these elevated levels I think this might persist not necessarily from Monday open but four next week and I'm quite keen to see the ISM data and payrolls what does that look like I mean if payrolls is good and ISM is very strong then it could get quite interesting because does it because the Fed aren't going to say anything so if the data gets really strong the Fed are still not are still backing off just playing cool well then the market is going to continue to be a little bit I think negative and it's psyche of yields will move higher and that will trigger then some further spell over so kind of looking at next week as a whole rather than anything specific over the weekend to be honest yeah I mean it was it's funny you say about the whole weekend risk you know they're gone at the times of worrying about the virus initially I mean there's literally a year ago to the day I think it's the 26th or 24th of February where it then gapped lower the 24th to the 26th the first real big one of the year and it obviously it never came back for where it didn't come back for quite some time but they were just fascinating times in the markets weren't they and yeah I don't I don't see a massive like I don't I'd be very very shocked to come in Sunday evening UK time and there'd be a gap higher or lower in in US stocks right now but a year ago it wasn't surprising I mean it was like opening like limit down wasn't it in US on Sunday evenings which is incredible incredible yeah just having a quick scan on the chat make sure my um audio's on yeah just having a look at the pound sort of breaking out back up to near its um sort of 140 region little break of that previous resistance area euro up to the previous low so a little bit of a relief following that data I mean the S&P still range bound isn't it and on that high you've got the open 20 minutes 18 minutes away so probably not worth getting too involved on that tea notes if you've mentioned there is is contained gold I have to say if the if your own pound push on and gold doesn't then I think we're in for a big move next week to the downside in gold if it just can't catch a bid with other markets which it's struggling to at the moment and how and looking at tea notes price on the the longer time frame you know it is where it was really a year ago give or take how how um how low does it come before it becomes attractive again do you think well this 132 in the 10 year was a big level this was yeah really prior to the main episode of pricing in what was going on at that time and then the shakeout obviously in the big equity route that we had so yeah I mean look we're only two points off that from current price at the moment I mean if you were just blindly looking at this technically you'd be thinking well yeah why is it not going to get down there at this point so yeah there's a bit more scope here and that's what I'm saying about perhaps next week could be quite interesting given the setups here because as we were looking at with some of the S&P and as that charts what you'd be looking for is a synchronized break of these key kind of longer term levels to then see another little leg to what we've had this week then then you know not only do the dip buyers come in in in the stock market I think people will start fading the yield move as well in in the fixed income market as just one thing I've learned over the years with markets remember the guy who was he had a really good way of saying it but generally markets always overstep on the initial interpretation of information they always overprice and that's what's really quite a common behavioral element of markets it's like markets love taking a crumb of information and then generating an entire end outcome and sometimes they can just get you know one step too far so yeah just having a look at the pound though here let's just quickly jump back in and I was looking this is the pound on a 30 minute looking at the sterling future and I had a couple of things marked up there from the briefing this morning yeah you know initially well this fib was from I was trying to capture just basically the February rally so going from the low to the high and the market kind of did respect that to a certain degree initially this morning had a bit of a bounce and then came back back up to that rectangle which was looking at which is the highs and the lows and and yeah they came back down again since that point we did have some comments out of Haldane I know Haldane gets a lot of grief on Twitter from certain people which will remain unnamed because he's a he's a fairly vocal chap he's like the the UK version of bullard at the Fed and he came out and he was talking up this idea about if inflation goes up it could be a little bit hard to control but I think context is quite key he has been very much more so on the hawkish side of the MPC for some time so him making those sorts of comments I think is not unusual he's also been very open to stepping away from the majority and being quite outlier in his view so I wouldn't make assumptions that any of the MPC share his thoughts at this point but interestingly look the pounds just recovered a little bit and we're just coming up to that kind of next area that could be quite interesting to look at which is kind of here so looking around 139 82 just above that then would be the 382 retracement on that move as well so would you be keeping an eye on that for the rest of the afternoon yeah definitely I think you've got the the key levels marked up there for the pound I really do I think it's it's one way you can understand the little push higher we've had following the data break of the technical resistance at 39 50s and yeah we just had a 30 pit pop if you like up to the next area where people would take profit so now it's almost in the midst of you know probably no new trade to be taken to the upside anyway unless it can get back above you know 39 82s then 140 comes in but on in regards to the medium longer term I'm still yeah bullish on the energy complex and energy intel reporters suggest that sadly parent code has begun commissioning its jazang refinery which is at 400,000 pounds a day according to sources it's going to mean a bank level energy intel parent code has started commissioning its 400,000 jazang refinery according to sources yeah that's not a market moving comment I mean it's just sadly commissioning a refinery so yeah no consequence for today's market press I did see some news on Twitter earlier let me bring it up did you catch that about their paid premium service yeah I did yeah quite a lot I mean it had a good day yesterday didn't it yeah that yesterday um although trending on Twitter earlier was RIP Twitter it's two people love a freebie though don't they they do that's it yeah I mean do you know what and we actually you might not even remember this but I remember I'm going to say two years ago talking about getting in on Spotify and it's one of my big regrets not having got in at the time and that's I think 20 odd percent off the high at the moment and I like it I think it's it's a it's a by the dip and I'm just slightly annoyed that the data today wasn't better so we just had this whole rotation push as well and the yields and stops come lower to get in and so yeah I feel I feel like that's you know going to go to 600 and it's 300 or so yeah Spotify was one of those that just kind of stumbled into I think I got into Spotify very early and you know as complex as you can make investing sound sometimes you know whether you want to do some sort of deep dive financial balance sheet analysis or you want to talk about you know deploying a top down macro approach and identifying sectors and sector value and all this sort of stuff I just use Spotify right and and so does pretty much every single person that I know and actually most people that I know pay for Spotify now it's not like they're free being it I mean I remember I had Spotify for quite a long time when it was free you just had to put up with an advert every now and again and then they brought about the the payment mechanism to monetize it because they went through this big acceleration of membership at the beginning just just get it out to everyone for free now remember people were saying the same or RIP Spotify can't charge people for this but yeah obviously it was trading way lower than what it is now and it's one of you know with that sort of thing I mean I just don't even I don't even look at it I need to yeah I just guess like I mean what what's going to happen what they do either go up or someone buys them out and just like assumes them into their own ecosystem whoever that might be but I guess they're beyond that point now because they're quite big but you know there's a question here talking about stocks someone was asking about you know the growth stocks is this is this the end for them in the near term and again it really does depend you know with investing rather than trading it's really about your time horizon what are you looking to get out of what you're doing I mean if you're if you're thinking oh growth stocks apple yeah it's going to come off now it's bad time for apple it's like well yeah sure I mean they might weaken a little bit in the very near term in this environment where the NASDAQ's getting hit 3.6% yesterday but is apple not not going to go up by the time that we go through the next even couple of months I mean of course it's I mean I say of course most likely it will so yeah your time horizon is key I mean again I've got some apple from a long time ago and apple's just a slow burn just let it ride I'll see you in 10 years kind of job unless something crazy happens and you know I saw your I saw your Instagram poll and it was like Amazon or Apple I mean I don't both I mean it's not really one or the other I mean look if you're if you're going to be picky about percentage points then sure I you kind of like the breadth of the model that say Amazon might have but I guess for them from an Apple perspective you know Eddie was talking about this before in a few weeks ago when Tesla are investing in Bitcoin and Apple are investigating a wallet for these types of things and some sort of coin exchange and yeah there's interesting stuff on that side that perhaps could be another evolution of that company but I don't I just think again this is that mentality of like the stimulus check retail trader coming into markets fresh and just thinking right who do I buy then and then just that's it they're in they're in right now it doesn't really matter about and they want they want you know this is the interesting thing about the the kind of anchoring of what I think is quite interesting now with a lot of the kind of demographic who might be more entwined with that whole Robin Hood and Zero Commission it's just like I mean if you're trading game stock right and that's the first stock you've ever looked at and your first trade earned you like a hundred percent and you did it in like three days I mean where do you go from there you're going to be like unless I'm getting an absolute rush thrill of ride of my life and returning a hundred percent then where do I go from here and then you say oh yeah why don't you park it in ETF and get not nine percent the S&P on an average basis you'd be like what over 12 months yeah joking yeah I mean one of my good friends is he loves the penny stocks and penny stock twitter is fantastic it really is everyone just pumping their ideas and you know I'd love it I absolutely love it looking at it but yeah it's if you look for anyone listening and wanting to start out it's absolutely the safest place you know get in ETFs that you believe in and and then you can go about learning about the rest but yeah game stop is if that's your first one it's probably the the most unhealthy one to have got in in that respect because everything else is going to seem like a come down from that but that had obviously another couple good well really good day what was it two days ago to or evening two evenings ago yeah yeah it's got everyone excited again then yeah I'm not I'm going to say no comment well look I mean I am I'm really proud of myself because I didn't get in and I knew that I wanted to I knew I had people messaging me that AMC is going to do the same and I knew if I got in I was going to lose because it's just not my style it's not my approach and thankfully for you know I was justified but even if it did continue to go higher and higher and higher so what so what I think that's my way of dealing with it yeah cool well we've got the open five minutes um then we'll we'll stay on for just a little bit through the open and then see how it opens up is the S&P frozen or is it um it's literally just meandering along that high isn't it okay that I think it'd be an interesting open if you put the S&P on a 240 if we are to get above the the pivot level and some of those previous lows and also what was let me just this this sort of region here and you see those two previous highs if we if we close the week above that I mean that's that's a big win for the bulbs really and I would say we start on the front foot next week on the flip side if we go and test that immediately in in the open selling pressure starts and we finish the week near the lows then yeah I think we can continue down I think that's a really really key level I'm super interested to see how we've closed the week and of course the month as well in and around that and you know we're not far from from there now and that's going to be a big psychological level yeah T-notes just literally doing nothing that's just uh it's like alarm bells when you see price action like like that which you know in the context of things the 10 year having a range of four or five ticks in any normal situation would be perfectly fine but you know that it is getting squeezed a little bit through the course of the day with pivot yeah and and and if it does break those lows and gathers momentum and you know you'd imagine we get a similar kind of move to what we had yesterday so I think it is it's going to be certainly interesting seems like at the moment that the pce disappointment for the inflation balls has uh it's just enough for relief for the time being but obviously I think we've got to wait for the open to really make more sense of it I mean Stelin you've just asked a question should I buy the Tesla dip I don't have a chart in front of me but I do think it comes a bit lower so there will be a dip to buy in Tesla but in my opinion it's not right now jokovic still still not getting the love he deserves in your opinion Sam he's not I mean like I'm I prefer no doubt I do feel a bit sorry for the Novak I think he shows his frustration is quite clearly that he hasn't got that that love I mean Federer's probably the most popular tennis player isn't he that backhand and um his way of carrying himself on the court all of this has it's got in many admirers like yourself well no no no I'm Tim Hemlin don't you yeah but no he hasn't and if I was a betting man on who's going to retire with the most grand slam I probably would say Novak and then yeah I feel I feel a bit sorry for him but then he's had a couple of you know Mr. Minas in his career most recently recently the U.S. Open in the summer wasn't there something with Australia and he was saying about something about the Covid thing well yeah didn't want a bit of trouble yeah he hosted a party hosted a party and if Nick Curios is is is having a go at you for something then you know you've done something wrong uh curious yeah I wouldn't I wouldn't I wouldn't bite with Curios no you just got to just just let him do his thing and or just say something point blank like when you win a grand slam something then you can talk then you come talk to me otherwise not interested yeah absolutely you know in tennis though it's interesting you've got a couple of young young players that are getting better um but just shows how good Novak Roger and Raph have been to still be you know smashing it out out there okay probably open okay yeah if there's anyone new joining the feed then you know we are global macro traders so you know if you're a U.S. based stocks trader and you're kind of looking at some of these small cap stocks and just looking at the the order flow data and just trying to pick up you know a couple cents here and there in and out of different stocks that's that's not how we trade I think wrong with that way of trading of course it's just that we're we're global macro cross asset kind of base strategies so we'd be looking at outright positions based with that at the forefront of the decision making kind of process so um yeah much more placed to talk about some of the big themes like that so a bit different from perhaps that single stock centric focus yeah so push up session highs and initially out the gate NASDAQ S&P yeah keeping a watch on those those pivot levels um yeah it's always you know you know me and I prefer the wait 15 minute approach just because those initial spikes higher or lower can be reversed so quickly and people will absolutely trade the open and do well from it if it's their approach their edge and they're consistent with their reward and risk but for me yeah I prefer to wait to see what happens 15 minutes time and then you know go to check after the US cash activity open it was constructed open for the cash indices typically for the NASDAQ which is of course up by around about the cent as you want to come in which Steve would have been alluding to over the course of the morning and not only of course of the morning over the last few months as well so tech stocks doing pretty well on the bottom of our energy lagging looks like it's taking it's huge upon the crew complex where it doesn't have price down around about 80 cents at the moment but that was also one of the laggards likely the function of those yield moves that we're talking about sound for the rest of the session nothing specifically scheduled by way of major events will get the final Michigan print for February at the top of the hour to get okay going to shut him down there's a question for you general question we're looking to enter a trade do you have any rules indicators that used to confirm that entry yeah absolutely and so if I was to look for a trade say on a shorter to medium medium term outlook I want to be well first things first I want to know what's going on want to know what's going on so in the morning I'm not really looking to get into a trade till till after eight so for me I'm looking at the news what's driving the market in the calendar and watching the briefing really so and a lot of my decisions come from what you say so I want yeah I want to and the reason I do that is I'd like to follow the trend of the market so if there's news that's come out overnight then you know I need to be thinking does it mean that now the market's going to come back lower or are we continuing that is there any key data point speakers that are going to come out during the day that I now need to be aware of and maybe can't trade so that that will be once those box of tips then I'll look at the charts and put them on say the daily chart to look at any key areas that we're near a 240 time frame as well will be sort of the minimum level that I would trade off so I'd like to see for example I'm looking for a long I'd like to see an uptrend over the last at least few weeks I'd like to see a break of a key resistance level confirmation that we've closed above and then looking for that there's sort of the retracement back into what was resistance now support with a good risk reward and now what makes that easier for me is one experience but also you know knowing what key levels are longer-term levels are looked at by more people you're going to get a better reaction of of those so yeah I start with looking at the bigger picture the key daily levels and then are we going to continue the trend is there anything coming out today that means we aren't going to keep going higher is there anyone speaking is the risk reward good and I decide my risk reward based on the levels that are on the chart I know some people will say look I'm trading a five to one and that means I have to miss out some some potential key levels just to back up the stats for me it's about you know what is the chart telling me is there a weekly high near okay well I'm going to book a bit of profit at that point so yeah that's you know the basis of it and it's obviously you know going to be still some discretion in there like for example today I'm not going to get into a medium term position one because the data to it's the last trading day of the month I'm going to wait to Monday for a new week new month before looking to get in anything new and it's just I guess understanding the calendar for the week weeks months but yeah I like to follow a trend with a technical reason to get in a technical reason for my stop which invalidates it which I accept before getting into the trade and then technical reasons for my targets where the risk reward is is better than two to one thanks Sam there was another question in regard to I'm not sure how the age of this person but just to to take it off talking about bachelor programs around Europe would you suggest to someone observing markets for two years now and train developing strategies for six years one year I'm actually passionate about economics macro micro was thinking about doing economics and finance so well I guess I've tackled this two ways one if you're a student and you're just thinking about what discipline to study at university yeah I'd say majority of people would study economics or something finance related it's not a prerequisite though to work in most roles if you were going to work in a more technical based role like research or some kind of quant based role then it's going to require probably mathematics engineering those kind of numerical based disciplines could be very good crossover in terms of what colleges or programs to get into you want to aim for as best as one that you can possibly go at you know we have a different arms our business which which has technology to identify talent based on performance which is the way that big institutions want to go down now in future but ultimately big institutions still generally recruit from a small catchment of universities similar in different geographic regions so a select handful of schools in the UK or in mainland Europe or in the US it's a similar kind of thing so if you get into those great if you are older and you know you want to just up your skill level and it's just about trading then you know joining communities hopefully like Amplify Live can offer that you know we have live streams every day we've got you know lots of content we're adding I think today I've got at least three or four videos I need to upload from conversations that we've had over different things so with that obviously academic qualification and your ability to trade have very little correlation I would say it's so psychological and you know Sam's got a new group of traders so Sam is our you know head of trader development and he's got a new batch of people coming in next week to undertake some of our training so quite keen to see what the background is of the new bunch really. Have you got any insight yet as to anyone unique in terms of their circumstance like any sportsman or you know head pilots obviously given the pandemic? Yeah I think we've got a couple of pilots again this group then see a couple of people in the chat now Oliver you're terrible don't worry I'm sure you're not there that's starting so yeah we've got a good mix of people as usual from all different backgrounds, ages so yeah I'm really looking forward to it you know it's set up nicely isn't it not just you know the markets now but over the coming weeks you know I'm expecting it to be super interesting as we just see the NASDAQ push through the down not really biting towards it SAP doesn't know where it wants to do, T-notes hanging on that bottom trend line but yeah I'm really looking forward to it and yeah we start Monday Monday morning yeah just keeping an eye on gold here just a bit of a retest down at that S1 on the daily pivots which was the low we printed straight away in the futures at the market kind of entrance in Europe and obviously on the daily that's that kind of longer timeframe we're looking at at 62 which was the November low so is it same case here for you from a technical perspective to close today? Yeah really interesting when we close the day and you know that little bit of dollar weakness that we had from the data if gold couldn't push on that then yeah I fear for it if we would close the week right now then I would I'd imagine we we we have a decent downward move next week to be honest to begin it and from a technical point of view as you can see you've got your the rectangle marked up that is a key support point and has been a key level going back to last year so for us to psychologically close the week below everyone's seeing that so yeah does not look good for gold right now but there's still time to go before you know if it snaps back finishes above 1762 1770 you know if you're looking for a reason to get long false breakers is one of those reasons that's quite funny I was just seeing Ahmed's just said in the chat he's taken a quote from one of my notes in the morning and it says quote Anthony Chung two weeks ago when markets are quiet it never really stays this way for long so keep your powder dry yeah it did feel like we went through a period of it was getting too quiet you know just through my experience you know markets do not reflect that consistently for too long a period it's almost like it almost becomes self-fulfilling in a way it's like we go the longer we go through these stretches and when you start getting people put up the dates of like it's been 24 days since the vicks did this or the s&p had a change of that you know it's coming from a behavioral element so yeah it's quite it's quite funny I would have said that but yeah you can check out my Twitter handle if you want to get a morning note I put it out very early UK time kind of around 6.45 in the morning kind of prep you up for the day ahead I don't know if you covered this or not Fred was asking Sam about execution do most swing do mostly swing trading and getting stung when trying to get in on a retracement so looking if you look at anything like the RSA RSI is moving averages VWAP for confirmation to take a trade or if you've got a rule set up for yourself yeah and each person will probably give you a different answer to be completely honest but it's it's what works for you and if you're using a move in average you want to make sure that move in average works on that product that you're looking at and you can you know back test it you can review how well the 100 day moving average reacts when it gets hit and same with Fibonacci and you know RSI and whatnot so any any tools that you use before you put them on you want to have a little scoop back scroll back on the screens to make sure that they do work I like to keep it quite simple if it's the first retest of the market of a level sorry then I'm happy to to get in straight away I'm obviously looking at the the calendar the news to see what actually is this just a little pullback to get long or has the trend changed and gone if it's a multiple if it's a second third test of getting in then you know a way to see how we close in and around that level before pulling the trigger as such but in terms of other tools that that could be used there are so many aren't there and that and that's why if you are to go down that route you just want to make sure the one that you're using works and has been respected and you can see that people are also looking at that the 200 day moving average on stops works because people talk about it and previously we found support there will we find resistance if we're below so um yeah for me I'd keep it quite simple when I do my analysis on a Sunday on the currency pairs I add a moving average and type around the different ones the 100, the 200, the 50, the 10 to see are we near anything but have we also respected it in previous weeks or months if we have then I need to have that on it's like with the pivot levels that you see on Amazon these screens now I think they're great because they they're mathematically calculated for you you don't you don't put your own pivot levels on and decide where they go like we would with a moving average everyone that has pivots on sees the same level it's like with the markets the highs and the lows people that trade the markets can see the high and low but with other tools it can be relatively tricky so you want to make sure that it works even with pivots like for example in oil you can see yesterday the low was the pivot point the high today almost was the pivot with you know found a bit of support on the s1 in previous days as well the r1s and the s1s have been okay so I would have them on and consider them but if you know other technical tools aren't working aren't prospective then I'm not looking looking to have that on either just keeping a half an eye on that gold top right chart it's flirting again that s1 yeah banging on there isn't it um yeah quick question Sean uh you noticed that we offer an accredited level six diploma training financial market analysis how much do you think this would help building a more competitive cv for a uni grad um yeah I mean look if you're a uni grad or a student it's all about um getting experience and then having increased knowledge about being able to talk about markets through live interaction of having taken risk and formulating and executing trade strategies so something which obviously you can't really do in a traditional internship in a firm where you're not really getting that hands on or without much responsibility or academically and in a theoretical sense so yeah for sure um it can help um definitely we've had some students do it before really depends on your career objectives um obviously working in financial markets there's a you know there's tons of different types of roles that you can do and we have a separate division called amplify me which I strongly suggest you check out if you haven't already done so where you can take part in some uh different types of training which is more like capital markets and then they do stuff like sales trading market making things like that could be um much more beneficial if you want to go in those areas but if it's training specific then definitely from a knowledge base at least you absolutely that program would would help um yeah we are the training we do at amplify is all accredited by the london institute banking and finance and our level six um certificate is the highest in the uk for any provider for training and financial market analysis so we're quite proud of that it just means that everything we do we're responsible for in that sense but you know just back to gold there you go so a little bit of weight just coming in uh in gold price so you can see it's just penting up there just kind of tapping away at that that low and it's just opening up now so 27 dollar loss now in the session and what do you reckon from here sam in terms of downside I mean that level yeah that you just marked on that's that's the point where I think you might even have a little short-term reaction but I think this is really key on on the daily close the weekly close and there could be a lot of room for it to go down um so then you're sort of looking what's that sort of 1730 ish I guess that that high that we let me just get the annotation this this sort of area here I think could be a point where we can get a bit of support but yeah I wouldn't want to be long and even on this 1750 area I wouldn't want to be buying here I think this this is a quite a key technical break and uh yeah I mean you just obviously got a bit of a pop there what's that done now 12 dollars in in the in the short space 47 no 10 yeah you can see how how important that level was on the break yeah had a bit of a false break initially just after cash open and then now under some some pressure just having a look elsewhere actually the equity open I'd say it's pretty tame all things being equal not too much at the moment though I guess interestingly that those top side levels of resistance are holding largely for now so it would have been a bit of a different scenario I think for the balls if we would have just exploded through that and then that that kind of area here and then as that kind of pivot and those lows and that previous high acting as a bit of a platform meant to help price stay above it but we've never got over it initially on that opening kind of drive on the cash market S&P as well with that range in the the pivot just above so yeah it'd be interesting to see I think you've got to wait for this to play out really over the course the afternoon oil just not interesting really right now and that's not really the focal point I'd say gold still session lows down 30 bucks now another three dollars there on that move it'd be nice to see the 10-year we're starting to trying to have a look on the downside here if that starts to break out then the asset class reaction is kind of set up then yeah T note lower equities lower now you see the S&P NASDAQ coming in little pressure here so dollars also firming up a tiny bit and this would be reminiscent then of the moves which we've been seeing in the last few sessions so firmer dollar pressuring metals equities off yields up T notes lower that it's starting to get a bit more heavy now and equities so almost like the the gold price was that first dominator to fall there yeah all all sort of you know as well you got to get the hour hour close in the few markets as well and these rejections up at these tops and equities yeah T notes can just push down a bit more you've got to imagine we're going to get a little bit of a drop it's got a question here Sam really important one here do you enjoy playing soccer or golf more cool if I was better at golf it would be golf but I'm not good are you are you good enough to tell us share with us your handicap or you rather keep that under wraps no I'm happy to I mean if anyone wants to give me free lessons they can my I'd say at the the privilege of playing in a long time and I've hurt my ankle back in September so didn't play that much so 20 20 is my handicap and I think it's probably a tiny bit higher now 18 holes for me is a bit too long I don't really have the the consistency to do well I can do well on some holes I'm an inconsistent fair weather golfer I'm shining and I can have a beer sign me up yeah yeah well you know I would like to just give that some context if you were a professional footballer so it gives you some some wiggle room for why you your your golf is not yet to a elite level soon come Lee I think do you know what I think it would be a draw Lee I think Leicester Arsenal draw Madison out it's going to cost you I think although if he's if he's available then I'd back you boys I would say all right anyone got any more questions at all at this point yeah just while we were addressing some of those questions I was keeping an eye half an hour under Chicago PMI number I mean 59.5 terms of the range for Chicago and that that's within that the bottom end of the range is 58 so a little bit soft but it's still a quite high number there actually let me see if I can pull it up on the the historicals and show you I mean this is what Chicago PMI kind of looks like in the grand ischema thing so now that number being a little bit soft and I mean you think is a real factor given the fact that you know it kind of just puts us on the level average of where we've been over recent months after the the dip and sharp increase that we saw given the initial lockdown phase we went through through the spring Q2 of last year just on the calendar you'd have University of Michigan coming up in a couple of minutes but this is the final reading for February so not expecting anything real focused on the on the back of that yeah equities still a little bit heavy here well so so when would the equity sell off become interesting when you're looking at a chart like this on the S&P so you've got to get through the bottom end of that range yeah I think it is important I mean that the people that put something up at those highs on the rejection range trade fairly to get above you can justify it and you know they're now thinking well how about those lows take a bit off but yeah I think it gets interesting like you saw with gold you know below that support that's when it can get more interesting you get that next push down and and whatnot but data like you said three minutes not expecting any fireworks there hour close ultimately the S&P is probably still in that range isn't it the Dow coming down to the bottom of its however but then as that you know since going back to 130s is unchanged so it's just perspective on it I think and unless the S&P breaks 3800 then I think it's okay I do have a question about forex flows on end of month do you know how to broad view on them see major banks of their own models yeah when it comes to that kind of month end generally I pick that stuff up from what the banks are circulating you know websites like zero hedge for example if if you were looking to get freely available content are quite good at that if there is any meaningful kind of month end sizeable flow that's expected or bias towards long short certain currencies like the dollar and the doubt they all pick it up I mean for myself given that I used to work a squawk company I still they very kindly give me access to certain things and they collate a lot of that information for me so squawk services can offer that sort of thing as well so yeah there's no I've never had a need to calculate anything myself I've always kind of drawn upon just resource gathering from from bank calls for that sort of thing so Philippe I hope that answers your question sorry that you've had to repeat it a couple times if we've missed it yeah gold another push 33 now on the session I did make the call Sam in the briefing 1700 yeah well I mean the rate is going it'll be a lot better yeah I was being a little bit cheeky just saying that I mean from a I understand what you're saying there's a couple of areas here the price might have a little response to on the decline but the ultimate kind of move here on the daily close then should next week play out as we've discussed earlier I don't see why we don't go down there if we get but we need to see that uniform move here what I'd need to see for for gold to hit that marker I'd want to see the whole market roll over like it did yesterday you know we get a big down day and but the t-notes got a leak that charge it's got to come from the high yield to pick the dollar up and just drive to dollar higher again if you're going to see a day where you're getting 70 80 dollar gold loss cool all right well Sam should we should we wrap it up with the the sharing on YouTube yep me stop the sharing so one just before you do that for anyone who is watching this on YouTube you know what there is no fixed schedule for us to do this just from time to time given the fact that you know if you do follow us on YouTube really appreciate that you know if you subscribe to the channel we're putting out lots of content every day obviously my briefing goes up delayed but we'll be up every day I do have some videos coming out scheduled for the weekend is coming as well so yeah that we'll do it ad hoc basis but if you'd like the live streaming the first priority is for the Amplify live community and once we we come off this live YouTube feed as well we're going to just continue on there going forward so yeah otherwise check out amplifylive.com and also don't forget if you're not already following it you can check out the latest podcast episode which peers and I peers being the head of trading we just had a fresh conversation this morning about mainly the topic we're looking at and talking about right now which is inflation and yields so it's definitely worth having a listen to that as well when you get a moment awesome thank you guys for tuning in catch you all shortly