 Hi, my name's Leon Roe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comm and welcome to this week's applying demand forex and gold fundamental and technical analysis if you're new a warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally very warm welcome to you and don't forget to like subscribe and share press that like button You know it gets the quality content out and helps the algorithm is really a free way to say to say thanks for the content that I put out and If you are thinking about joining Trading 180 enrollment closes on Sunday the 17th of October not to open again for 2021 the next moment will be 2022 and if you are sitting on the sidelines I highly advise that you were really kind of considered joining and really joining and getting a trading mentor and the question I would ask you is what high-level skill? Can you acquire only watching videos if you've been watching videos for the past year or two and haven't seen the results? There's a missing link right between just watching videos and actually being mentored and mentoring You know gives you guidance nuance feedback I give you nuance feedback and support via discord the discord trading group chat and give you personalized video responses as well as weekly group mentoring Q&A sessions where we have You know the guys come in and we all basically have a discussion about the week's events from technicals and fundamentals and whatever you want to discuss From a trading perspective also as well mentoring holds you accountable, right? And you hold me accountable. So enrollment ends for 2021 Sunday the 17th of October, please on the 18th of October Monday if you were sending me emails asking, you know to come in Unfortunately, that's going to be it for the year. So Yeah, I just want to get into that. So let's get into the the I guess the fundamentals in the upcoming week on trading economics Slightly different this week because they haven't really updated their their their normal week ahead So we have to kind of go through the calendar. So this week. I think the important News events really are keeping on China. Obviously, we want to see GDP growth rate year on year that's important because if the consensus or the forecast comes out Or the I should say the consensus comes out less than thoughts Then the really the go global growth and I guess global recovery is kind of slowing down And it kind of affects everybody. There's more of a risk-off sentiment When it comes to China because China is really the world's economic engine and really for the for the world to grow China has to grow. So it's always worth keeping an eye on Chinese the Chinese macroeconomics We've got lots of speeches this this week I think on Tuesday. Yeah, we've got governor Bailey speaking for the pound We've also got the Australian RBA minutes as well We've got Fed Dali speaks, etc. So we've got loads of Of speeches really about You know the the economy and what the central banks are looking to do with monetary policy Wednesday, we've got inflation rates, which is always important because central banks are looking at especially the Bank of England are going to be looking at inflation rate as I Guess an indicator as to why they should be hiking or you know, holding rates, right? We've got the European central bank some more speeches there And I think Christine Lagarde is speaking. We've got inflation rate year-on-year for September as well Canada inflation rate as well. So lots of inflation Reports and again, like I said, inflation is really important Because it really kind of one of the facts that determine whether what a central bank is going to do with their monetary policy Thursday, we've got the annual report for Australia New housing ADP employment change. That's going to be something maybe keeping an eye on again more speeches in the US and Also, I think it was it Thursday. Did we have I thought we had a Christine Lagarde speaking this week, maybe not or maybe I've missed it But yeah, so we've got some speeches or speeches anyways, and then we've got again governor Low Speaks Friday we have retail sales not necessarily anything major and Yeah, I think anything Towards the end of the week. I don't think there's really anything that that that pressing to be fair There is a footage for the Japanese yen as well with something to keep an eye on is balance of trade as well as that helps To determine the direction of GDP so some decent news coming out But it's really more to do with the I think the next coming weeks is whether the you know The Fed are going to taper and we're going to get into really the dollar and the pound and the euro in the Detailed Technicals and fundamentals. So as we always do let's start off on the US dollar index and the US dollar index Is a measure of dollar strength against Basket of currencies like the euro the pound yen major currencies and from technically what we've seen is prices really come up to this this major Or cut a major hyper clear obvious high from September 2020 and we've you know seen obviously the 94 areas the 9450 has been An area where the market has probably seen that as being a bit of an expensive area for now The Federal Reserve are looking to potentially taper this tapering on the table But if you want to be a buyer with a dollar you want to really have some perspective You don't really necessarily want to be a buyer at the highs unless you really believe it does should go to the upsides So any pullbacks into that zone? I think a decent buying opportunities, but you wouldn't be buying the dollar index You'd be buying any of the dollar crosses But there were some recent news US retail sales confirm Third quarter soft patch is over so a strong performance from retail sales coupled with surging spending on travel and leisure She's leisure suggests that the economy is Re-accelerating after the recent COVID related Slowdown this should help cement expectations for a November 3rd QE taper announcement from the Federal Reserve So there was some positive news around We sent positive news that should lend a hand to the Federal Reserve tapering bonds tapering bonds is a reduction in You know government buying government debt, but there's also The the view I guess by Alexandra Tansy that That growth forecasts not necessarily a view, but there are growth forecasts that the Atlanta Fed sees that the GDP may grow only 1.2% in the third quarter and the reason why it's basically supply chains and inflation There are some issues right so a few months ago the US economy looked like it was roaring back from the pandemic slump now a Recovery is starting to look like a grind not necessarily a you know Fault as far as any kind of slowdown or reversal as they say Here so none of the none of this means That the US rebound is heading into reverse says Nathan sheets newly appointed chief economist for city group Inc I think recession is too strong. He says but it's certainly softer So understandably, you know things don't go in straight lines just like you know economic data doesn't go in a straight line right there's a bit of pullbacks and also as well One of the one of the major culprits I guess is missing jobs of the economy watches have also been flummoxed flummoxed if you don't know what that means It means I think that confused and perplexed. I guess by the labor market. They They are more Sorry, there are more than 10 million open positions But the pace of which they're being filled has slowly has slowed sharply in the past two months Virtually every economist survey deserve surveyed by Bloomberg overestimated the number of new jobs So it's not that it's it's it's a different type of problem, right? Because you've got lots of jobs, but people aren't filling those vacancies. That's very different from a usual Downturn where you would have loads of people who want jobs, but there's not enough vacancies, right? So the the economy is there. It's just that the for some reason Americans are not taking up the jobs, right? So there are positives to be had out of that. Yeah But um, ultimately the US dollar I think Buying the rumor I still think that the dollar is still a potential buy But obviously waiting for you know deeper pullbacks, right? This is more of a bargain We know this was a bargain area or known as a cheaper area because prices made new highs When prices start to come back to this area here That's the first area that you really want to understand or want to look for a buying opportunity Unless prices do make higher highs and then you're waiting for a pullback into that higher low But again, I would probably wait for a bit more Confluence on the dollar if we do get a bit of a pullback as we head towards November the fifth Which is only a few weeks away from now So you could probably see the dollar start to set off a little bit as it has been quite extended Recently and I say extended but it's been bought So I think for me looking for a pullback on the dollar if you do want to get short on the dollar Then you know this week or into the you know foreseeable future for whatever reason then You know, yeah looking at short trades right now is is is you know technically is is okay But really the path of these resistance is to the upside, right? We've been calling this for ages since June matter of fact We've been saying you know by really kind of buy dollars or we've been looking at buying the dollar Moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen is screamed higher than waiting for a bit of a pullback and there is some Pullback coming. Hopefully there's a demand zone there. It's still on the high side I'm don't really like it too much When you consider, you know, the move that prices made in this kind of parabolic fashion for me I prefer prices to really kind of come back if it can to these To if it can come back all the way down to this 11 Area this one 1150 area that would be a brilliant buy or I think the first area to probably look for buys is here But I just don't like the fact that it's really at an expensive area when you consider How the obvious higher highs higher lows, right? Those are the obvious ones I'm not keen on buying that the US dollar at 1 13s I'd really kind of prefer it to kind of come back down to the one 1150s and For those of you who are you know who are in the mentoring group You would know that the fundamental analysis spreadsheet that we use has really been talking about the Dollar yen one of the stronger pairs you can see right here Strength divergence ranked number six Where number two is really you know a buy and eight is really a sell eight being the Japanese yen is the quote currency The base currency is the dollar and it's really been like this for quite a few months now Where the dollar has been well ahead of the the Japanese yen and you can really see what's been happening, right? You can see what's been happening on the Charts right over the past about zoom out over the past it's the beginning of the year matter of fact So the fundamental analysis spreadsheet has not stayed us wrong, right? It's literally just been buying on the dips yeah, so So yeah, let's Let's just basically continue to buy on dips I should say it's not financial advice But I will continue to buy on dips if risk off starts to come into the market Let's say there is you know some fear uncertainty and doubt that comes in then the yen should be the one to actually Buy but you want to see really kind of proof of value Yeah, it's a proof of value meaning that you want to see price prove that there's some supply here And then a pullback into that supply zone before looking at getting short But only in a risk-off really environment the path leads resistance for me. It's still to the upside Moving on to Dollar Swiss again dollar Swiss has pulled back a little bit into this zone We've seen a reaction over the past couple of weeks. I'm waiting for a probably a bit of a deeper pullback to be fair Maybe down into this 91 area I do like but for me again the path of these resistances definitely to the upside even if it came down to this 90 area That would be actually fantastic by I think Definitely not buying the Swiss franc anytime soon But if you do want to be a buyer right now, I would say probably now is a decent opportunity But I do think in the lead up to The Federal Reserve decision to taper I think the dollar might start to start to sell off as traders start to take profit From around these areas get a bit of a pullback and then you know as they do announced tapering Then you'll probably see a bit of a buy but again We need the data to support a narrative for that meaning that we need some economic data to to support the the tapering right But again in a risk-off scenario the Swiss franc would be the other one to buy and I think this area here is actually this 9350 area is a really nice Cell Set up but just fundamentally I wouldn't necessarily look to take that moving on to the Dollar CAD dollar CAD. I think it's probably the analysis from last week Yeah, I was saying I wanted to be a buyer of the CAD against the dollar and you can pretty much see what's been happening Right, I think the Canadian dollar has strengthened as well on the back of a rising oil prices or oil prices I think reached 85 right so the Canadian dollar Doing really well plus they had some great economic News when it comes to when it came to jobs. So I think any pullbacks into a supply zone is going to be a Really nice trade not necessarily the trade that I'm interested in But if you are looking at trading this pair, I think that area there is really nice for a short nice technical analysis Short if you're looking to buy the dollar against the Canadian dollar for whatever reason then this demand zone here should be a decent buy Looking at the New Zealand dollar US dollar and the New Zealand dollar really has been the buy and Lots of traders in the group have been looking to buy and I was saying that I really did want to get Sure, I'm longing this from a technical analysis perspective if prices did come down here That would have been a really really nice buy. Unfortunately. It wasn't again Just understanding that the RBA are hiking rates Yeah ahead of the Federal Reserve that gives you a really nice Advantage when it comes to buying the New Zealand dollar Many of the guys have made some decent profits on the New Zealand dollar matter of fact. In fact, let me bring up screenshot so this week RM in the group managed to get a nice 11 to 1 on the New Zealand dollar yen from a few weeks ago and it finally hit and well done to RM and Many other traders have been trading really well and buying that New Zealand dollar based off of again Just understanding fundamental analysis again New Zealand dollar being the really the top trade the New Zealand Swiss and the New Zealand yen top divergences and those have been the really some some great trades this year So, yeah, just looking to Continue riding that trend So against the dollar, you know, Parfoli's resistance should be more to the upside Again a pullback into this demand zone should be Decent for a potential buy if you can get one, but who knows right up for me I think like I said, it's not necessarily interested in this pair per se But if you the Parfoli's resistance, I think is definitely to the upside But you've got two strong currencies competing against each other So it's not really a pair that I'm particularly interested in you're looking to get short In fact, that would be a decent short trade Actually is quite a nice technical zone. You've got a supply zone as well as a bit of some some Confluence there with support and resistance right so that's decent as well Moving on to the Pound dollar so the pound dollar very interesting the pound is a bit of a conundrum I think there's a lot of stagflation talk around the pound meaning stagflation meaning that Economic growth is kind of slowing off, but inflation is going higher, right? And that's a problem because you want GDP to go up with Inflation so that the it can support rate hikes But I think that the pound Parfoli's resistance is still to the downside Although there are strong rumors around Still that the Bank of England hiking this year. I don't personally believe it, but to bank officials push back on talk of imminent UK rate hike so Kathy Mann and Silvana ten rero See reasons to wait and the markets increasingly anticipate higher rates by December So two of the banks Bank of England's policy makers signaled They're in no rush to raise interest rates the first sign of a pushback against market expectations for a move by the end of the year so You know, they do have you know some some doves and hawks They're they're a bit kind of middle of the road when it comes to undecided as to The majority but for me, I think I think they're just trying to talk up the pound I don't think they can actually do it. I could be obviously be wrong But I think regardless of whether they do or they don't they're stuck I think it will even if they high crates. I think it may hurt the economy and And I think that the pound is is a short regardless So it's a unique situation not something that happens, you know every day every week even every year But you know when the stars are lying to go short on a currency pair whether the bank hikes rates or not is Is there so if prices don't reverse from now? I I fully expect this demand sorry the supply zone to be really the limit of the move so For me not necessarily the best trade fundamentally, but there's a lot of bank analysis That we that and research that we have in the group that are basically talking about, you know HSBC are talking about and Barclays are saying, you know that the pound is a bit on the expensive side bit fair value They're looking to short as well and lots of other banks as well and analysts. So There's a lot of confidence there and I don't know where that no one knows where the turning point is Of course, that's not our job to necessarily know the exact turning point No one can predict the future, but it's our job to understand where to par for least resistances, right? So if we understand that this was brilliant if it's not then this is looking like an even better bargain or better place to short the The the pound against not just the dollar But against some of the other strong currencies like the maybe the CAD or the New Zealand dollar Anyways looking towards if you're looking to actually buy the the pound then If you're looking to buy the pound and you're looking really for a bit of a pullback, right? You need a bit of a pullback into this zone before looking at getting long Euro dollar Euro dollar I We were discussing this in the room and we were saying that You know, I think the 117s are gonna be a really good area if prices can get up there to you know Continue shorting the dollar. We do have a supply zone here, but I'm I'm unsure about if there is a decent setup You know, there is and it's a decent downside potential then I think that's actually okay But ultimately we could see a weakening of the dollar as we get towards and if you know If the dollar index matter of fact is actually at its highs and is going to pull back then you probably can expect The euro yen to actually weaken up and up to an area where Banks and financial institutions feel that this is more of a bargain to buy the dollar against the euro The euro is really kind of lagging behind When it comes to understanding Monetary policy, you know guidance whether they're going to high crates or hold rates, but they're still really looking to hold rates and which Opened to ECB flexibility, but wary of train changing tools often So the ECB are expected to decide on post crisis policy in December. So ultimately They are behind the curve. Yeah, when it comes to, you know tapering or anything like that or even looking to high crates and That's really been reflected in the In in the charts. So if we do get, you know, a bit of a trade setup here It's a decent, you know short But I think the best area for short trades is going to be around here Again, if you are looking to buy the euro there is some demand here But not strongest area of the money matter of fact is decent because it's taking that level of Supply so, you know decent demand here if prices do come down and then look for any kind of buy trades there It's okay. Not necessarily the best on the daily, but on a lower time frame. That's going to look actually quite strong So that 1515 to Four level is probably the limit potential limit of the move to the downside Especially as we're in this waiting period between whether the Fed are going to taper Or not Moving on to the euro yen and the euro yen look at that euro has been even though it's been a week against the dollar the weaker currency Is is the yen at the moment and anyone who's been shorting the yen has been in definitely some great profits and again as I say You know a lot of times. There's no technical analysis level that's going to stand in the way of Fundamental analysis and risk sentiment right because ultimately the price Reflects value and this is obviously seen as an absolute bargain price And so traders are not looking to take profit here not looking to take profit here There's no reversal. So if you were looking to short at these areas you know in a risk-on environment or You know just buying the the yen Again, you would have got slaughtered, right? I say that to the group all the time You have to understand why you're buying or why you're shorting or going long Currency doesn't make sense to just look at a level and just say alright, then well, you know, that's you know The level that you should short at fundamentals come first. So with that being said With this parabolic move, there's probably going to be some profit taking here me personally It's a decent if I'm buying the euro it probably would be against the Japanese yen I'd have to see some sort of pullback and then a move higher and then a pullback before looking at getting, you know long proof of value really before Understanding that I really want to be a buyer of the euro. I think this move is definitely gone For now. So but if you do want to get short on this This is going to be the the area to look for any kind of short trades at the one three two Fifty level currently zooming out. Yeah, the yearly high is here as well So we are at the really the kind of the highs of a range You know, so this is where the range is we're coming to that Expensive area on the euro. So any kind of pullbacks to at least fair value I think I would look for probably a bit of some buy trades Moving on to the Ozzy dollar and Ozzy dollar really I think has been supported by higher commodity currency prices Due to supply chain problems, but ultimately I do think at some point the Australian dollars should roll over against the dollar and Because they are behind the curve monetary policy wise and Yeah, I do that's my that's my bias So decent potential buyer right now or just above that area So anything from now 74s to 75 round number would I think would be a decent potential sell trade until the I Think until the RBA come out and a bit more hawkish and there's data to support the narrative It's very hard to buy the the Australian dollar Against the the US dollar right and as bad but as bad as the the Australian dollar is There are worse currencies and we'll see that when we get on to the Ozzy yen But for me, I think the power for these positions is still probably to the downside So again this week if you do get any Entries to the downside and you want to be you know in this pair then that's probably decent this area here It's actually quite decent for a potential short trade not really on my list of things to trade though and Going to the Ozzy yen and again Ozzy yen Seeing again the commodities rise oil rise Zinc I think it was was rising. We've just literally blown through these levels, right and So anyone who's missed out on this move again, you'd have to really kind of wait for either a pullback and then something like that Yeah, in order for you to get kind of long in here So you need to wait for a higher high higher low Whatever prices will come all the way back down to these 81 levels is it remains to be seen, right? But I think the Australian dollar is potentially a buy at some point. I just Now do you think is undervalued to a certain extent not yet? But I think if they start to turn their economy around I think Australian dollar is a fantastic buy from a commodity currency perspective lots of upside potential and Then moving to gold now gold again strong stronger dollar means a weaker Gold right means weaker gold prices. So we did have price come up to this nice supply zone and sell off this week but again, if if You do see The dollar start to sell off then possibly gold starts to go higher We've got level here as well of demand so if you are a buyer of gold that's decent that's 17 57 area is decent for a long trade But again for me gold I'm probably looking to trade it Extreme lows or extreme highs right and extreme low and extreme high would be something like this where we get You know we've seen loads of touches Here and I'm waiting for probably some sort of manipulation below the market Or we've got a nice area here and maybe something like that where we see prices go above that and then come back inside So for me It's a bit middle of the road I've really haven't got an opinion on on on on gold if anything if I'm if I'm bullish if I'm bullish dollar then Then I'm probably gonna be bearish on gold But not looking to trade gold at all to be fair But I know there are gold traders out there and are there are times to trade gold, right? But for me, I'm not looking to trade a gold This point unless inflation starts to really get out of hand and there is a definitely a change in sentiment From the Federal Reserve and I think if the change in sentiment meaning that they're more dovish Then I think gold is going to be a really really really nice buy At any kind of demand zone. Anyways, that's it for this week. Don't forget that you've got You know the enrollment closes for this year 2021 and Sunday the 17th of October If you're on the fence again about getting a trading mentor and this isn't you know One of those trade rooms where you don't speak to the person literally you will speak to me You can ask me questions and I will get back to you create videos for you We have weekly analysis videos where you got you get to the opportunity to ask me questions about pretty much anything And I really am a trading mentor not what a lot of other Trading groups claim anyways guys take care speak soon and until the next video. Have a great one