 The NFL Divisional Round is here and we got four pretty fun games on tap for this weekend and some pretty fun DFS slates to discuss as well What we'll do for today is go game by game breaking down our thoughts on the key DFS plays then those games and break down our top Priorities across the various slates over on Fanduul.com welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast That's right here on the Fanduul podcast network and Fanduul research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fanduul research Joined here as I am every Thursday by branding in Dula check him out on Twitter I could do a 13 find his work at Fanduul research where he is a senior managing editor Brandon Divisional Round is here How you doing today? Good trying to stay warm still. It's been been quite cold. I know that was a little bit of a storyline for Last week's playoff games not quite so much this time around, but I'm still cold So I'm gonna complain about a little bit. Yeah, the Andy Reed Mustache I duplicated that the next morning because the weather from Kansas City came here to Chicago I see you have a Chicago hat on and it wasn't snot on his mustache I want to make that very clear if you think it was snot You have not lived in the Midwest enough because your snot freezes in your nose Before it actually runs when it's that cold So it was like condensation from his breath that was frozen on his like mustache and like I've I When I walk the dog I get that so like Andy Reed is in a lot of ways like got a similar build You know, he's my spirit animal. We both like cheeseburgers like I I may not be a future First-Ball Hall of Fame coach, but I do feel like at least on a couple levels. He and I are kindred spirits Yeah, I got I got no comment here, but you know who is your NFL comp like who's your NFL head coach comp? Who is the most I? Thought oh You're a little Mike McDaniel leaks. He's very dry I mean, I don't think there's another one. You don't take things too seriously, which is good. I think it's a very positive for you I think it's a very positive thing for him. You're smart. He's smart. Okay, so you're Mike McDaniel I'm Andy Reed. Well, we picked two of the best coaches in football. So we're being very flattering of ourselves here But hey, you know What else are you gonna do on a Thursday? Well, we're gonna go ahead As I said, I don't really give off like coach vibes or And like football vibes. So I think McDaniel is The biggest outlier in that sense. I don't really know if there's even like I think that's a close second I don't think there's a close second. I think that's accurate So there really was no other competition there and like, you know, I gotta go for the build gotta go for the facial hair for me I gotta go at the cheeseburger lover. So that's I wound up on Andy Reed We're gonna break down this this all four games across the divisional round We'll go game by game But we'll also put time stands for when the Saturday only discussion begins and the Sunday discussion only begins if you're listening on this On the podcast feed go there to find time stands if you want to skip ahead to the Sunday section If you're listening on Saturday, those games have already locked so check out the episode description for time stands for when the Sunday Portion begins also, we do still have our fan dual research free play for this week two more weeks Actually, they're probably simple one too. So a couple weeks to get some potentially free cash over at Fandall research go to fandall.com a slash research and find the Post on the home page that has a link to the free play for this week and every week So fandall.com a slash research to get yourself entered for this week's free play Do not forget to check out the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Not just the NFL show for two more weeks But also we have our PGA podcast talking both betting and DFS every Tuesday Believe we have lock coming up right now for the American Express But for next week check us out Tuesday there Austin Swim also talking at betting and DFS over on the UFC side of things And of course Tom Vecchio with the daily ISO for NBA DFS every weekday all right here in the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed you can also find the PGA NFL heat checks and the daily ISO over on fan dual TV plus And of course NFL show live on the fandall YouTube page every Thursday at 10 a.m. Eastern Shout out to all of you watching YouTube as of right now when it comes to the NFL playoffs You got to win one game at a time when you bet the NFL playoffs on fandall one game can need a lot of wins Fandall America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line and spread And then there's all sorts of prop bets like quarterback passing yards or who will score the first touchdown plus every day There's an NFL game Fandals giving all customers a no-sweat same-game parlay That means when you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday You'll get bonus bets back if your SGP doesn't win Make every moment more with fandall an official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in president select states Minimum three leg parlay required refund issued as non-modrable bonus bets Which expire seven days after receipt max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restricts his applies see terms that sportsbook dot fandall calm fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler What was a fandall comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-42 in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1-800 9 with it in Indiana 1-800 522 4700 in Wyoming, Kansas, and in Kansas go to ksgaminghealth.com Louisiana is 1-877-770 stop in a Maryland MD gambling health at org and in West Virginia Go to 1-800 gambler net Let's kick things off here by talking about the first game of the weekend That is the Houston Texans at the Baltimore Ravens right now fandall sportsbook The Ravens are favored by nine and a half total in this game is down to forty three and a half in large part because there is some Weather for this game currently 14 mile prior wins in the forecast for Baltimore on Sunday So that's one key thing to know for this game is that there is potential wind impact in this one Injuries for this game mark Andrews gotten a full practice Wednesday Meaning he'll likely be good to return from his ankle injury this week based on the initial timeline for Andrews I think it's pretty fair to expect that he's limited here But I would bet that he does play they also assigned Dalvin Cook to the active roster Sounds like he'll be active to make his Ravens debut What could be more delightful than muddying the Ravens back? He'll leave it a bit more the Browns or the Browns Texans place Noah Brown on IR. That's why I said it and they played the jobs last week He's on IR so no Noah Brown Robert Woods still limited this week with his hip injury didn't play a ton last week even with Him being active for that game and with Brown leaving early John Metchie is the guy who played a lot of snaps but now Metchie limited the first two days with a foot injury He was not on the injury report last week So it does seem like this is a new ailment for Metchie So Brandon let's begin things meet more holistically here How are you viewing things as the Texans go on the road to face the Ravens in this game? Well, I like the under for the Texans game last week and that didn't exactly pan out But I'm there again this week and this is a low total already Lot of reasons for it one the Texans while they're a good offense have basically over performed based on My model which just looks at underlying data and tries to project out your team's points per play based on that underlying data, but You know when when CT Stroud for as good as he is when he's away from his home stadium you kind of see Some issues under seven yards per attempt in outdoor games QB rating 85 Compared to 8.8 yards per attempt and a 108.3 quarterback rating Indoors his passing touchdown Rates so basically the percentage of his passes their touchdowns under 2% outdoors almost 6% indoors like You would you do a good job of adjusting for when teams are moving indoors or moving outdoors but you know Otherwise, it could be just look at opponent adjusted numbers Stroud looks phenomenal He's had one of the best rookie seasons in that capacity that frankly, I remember just from a pure passing standpoint, but With that in mind. I am a little bit nervous about the move outdoors. So I'm not necessarily thinking this one is the highest scoring game of the weekend. What are your thoughts? I agree with you. I talked about the under on Monday when I did there Tuesday when I did the first look podcast It was 45 and a half at that time. I now have 43 and a half as being right on the number I 43.7 so Got the under when it was at 45 and a half I think it's about right now based on my numbers after accounting for the wind and all the stuff you alluded to as well and I think For that reason of the quarterbacks on the Saturday slate I strad is QB4, you know, we were on stroud pretty heavily last week We said that he was a guy We were most likely to use in a single line up for that Saturday slate despite the matchup I think this is a different set of circumstances because I'm much higher on the game environment for Packers 49ers and then there's Lamar Jackson. So to me I prefer both guys and the Niners Packers game over Stroud and obviously Lamar too. So Stroud I think it's QB4 and even on the two game slates as much as it breaks my heart I'm probably not gonna get there. Are you kind of in the same range there for the overall quarterback discussion? Yeah, I think we're on the same page there really like Lamar feel fine with party but then you get to into the You know the underdog quarterbacks. I am probably gonna lean Jordan Love. I agree not every time but I might Like yeah, it's it's close. Basically what I was getting at is like it's not gonna be every single time But it's gonna be pretty close Fandalsports book has odds on the highest scoring team for the weekend the Texans have the longest odds at plus 2900 Green Bay's 17 to 1 as the next lowest or next longest odds, so Expectations are I think justifiably down. It's it's really hard to look at Stroud Look at Nico Collins and just sort of like Bump them down a ton. Mm-hmm, but I think there are legitimate reasons to do so and so for that reason I do have Stroud as QB4 can't really envision playing all four quarterbacks on a two game slate, so CJ maybe we'll see you next week. I'd love to see him next week I think yeah, that'd be a lot of fun but I just think that I respect the Ravens defense a lot how Adaptive they are and I think that's an important conversation too because when we're talking about this two game Saturday So I don't want to stick with the Texans here to kind of honestly polish them off pretty fast I think they're a pretty easy team for at least for me we've got Devon Singletary checking in at a value salary of $6,400 and The reason focus here on the value guys opposed to Nico Collins 87 is because of this guy right here Christian McCaffrey $10,800 and That is tough to get to even if you don't go Lamar Jackson. It's tough to get to so we have Singletary 64 Collins 87 and then you get down to Robert Woods at 53 and John Mechie at $5,000 Mechie has mentioned is banged up Xavier Hutchinson would be the next guy up for them If Mechie were to be banged up and then Dalton Schultz the salary is $5,800 So I want to ask you Brandon. We're low on the Texans in this game from an offensive perspective How willing are you to use the value plays here in Singletary potentially the past catchers in order to get up to Studs like McCaffrey on this two games late Yeah That question basically comes down to how high are you on Christian McCaffrey and what are the odds that you know as you would phrase it he burns us and Look, we're not getting anyone else Frankly, there is nobody else Maybe you could argue Kyron Williams this year had a similar role to Christian McCaffrey. He still has just an untouchable role So it's a matter of Can you see enough to justify in these guys to get to McCaffrey because you really really want to play him I think you could probably justify that I will say like Devon Singletary is gonna be an almost every optimizer that you look at this week And I think it's justifiable based on You know what what his role ultimately is? 75% snap rate last week 70 scrimmage yards 13 carries three targets Presumably I mean he ran almost 50 he ran 55% of the routes For this team if they're if they're trailing like there's at least a path to Production through the air at that salary. I think it's reasonable It's for the other like the past catchers a Little bit harder to justify because Nico Collins just soaks up So much of the targets You know 32% last week and then it's kind of just Shuffled around from there you could make a case for certain players But in terms of routes if you look at the receivers and tight ends from last week You know And it's not like Noah Brown played most of the game or something he played I ran four routes Metchie had a 68% route rates Schultz 59% I know that passing overall was kind of down, but There's a lot of unknown and there is a lot of risk. I do though think that If this is the only way to get to McCaffrey It just comes down to how badly you want to play a McCaffrey and so maybe we circle back To these value plays but as standalone plays no They're not really plays that I'm looking to I'm not eager to roster anyone here because I think there's a Relatively cap ceiling in this matchup and I know we don't say floor But you know, we don't know who who's going to get targets or run routes really right? And I think that the better question is do any of them have a ceiling yeah for the value plays to And I'm not sure if they do now with Metchie. He's I prefer much preferable woods He ran a lot more routes than woods last week 15 routes from Etchie eight for Bobby trees Metchie has had a 61% and 68% snap rate the past two games And it's taking a while to break out like even when woods and Brown were banged up earlier on this year He wasn't getting a ton of snaps So I think that's a bit discouraging But Metchie was a second round pick coming out of Alabama and then missed all of last year So he was undergoing cancer treatments and then came back this year And it seemed like kind of a slow ramp up for Metchie, but like there is talent there. So Same as you, you know, would I use him as a standalone play now Can I justify him as a route to get into McCaffrey and in In asking the same question, do I care enough about McCaffrey to do that? Yeah, I do. So I think it's very likely I have Metchie and McCaffrey in my primary lineup for Sunday. I think that's where I said when on this one Yeah, I was basically gonna gonna follow it up where look There's nobody else on the slate You could you could say Lamar you could say Nico if you're not worried about the match up You can say Debo Maybe I uke but you know McCaffrey is the guy. Yeah salary this such and the fall off after I uke is precipitous Yeah, so then the flip side as well You know if I uke and Debo have a good game because we like Purdy and it doesn't all go to McCaffrey You still need those players, right? You're not gonna get all of them. Obviously, but Yeah, it comes down to like I think the best way I can phrase it is I would not really consider Metchie I'm barely considering him on the two-game slate on the four-game slate this week, right? I don't think that he would be in the player pool. Yeah, I mean then you add in guys like Josh Reynolds 61 is not like a true value play But you got Jameson Williams 53 Khalil Shakir 59 Justin Watson 5000 I think all those guys great out better and like they all have their flaws But I think they all great up better than that she does for the four games late Yeah, I mean Baltimore also like if you're in the camp of it only takes one or anything like there They're the toughest team in terms of yards per target a lot on downfield passes so passes traveling at least 10 yards downfield We got wind moving outdoors where we've seen shrouds numbers drop a lot Again anything can happen in one iteration of a game, but the the sort of long-term expectations here are that for me Passing is gonna be at a little bit of a premium And you know, I guess the other side of the ball which we'll get into and here in a second is Baltimore has a tough rushing matchup But I don't think that's gonna force them into a lot of incompletions and give Houston a lot of plays either So right but maybe you have a different read on that. Nope Let's talk about the backfield here for Baltimore to begin with of course. No Keaton Mitchell here Melvin Gordon release a Dalvin Cook sign to the active roster We know that Dalvin is cooked, but I also kind of think that Gus Edwards and Justice Hill suck I don't think they're like great talents. So I Think that cook will have a role in this game Especially because like if we had heard an hour and a half before lock that hey Dalvin cooks active That's kind of cool Where he'd been elevated from the practice squad and stuff like that it'd be one thing But they both signed into the active roster and we got a chef to tweet saying that cook will be active that to me says he's gonna have A non-zero snap rate in this game doesn't mean he'll be a lead back where I can use it 45. No I'm not gonna consider Dalvin cook. Does it lower my thoughts on Gus Edwards and Justice Hill? Yes, so I Know it's a good spot I know we saw Jonathan Taylor run really well against Texans defense despite the fact like he said they are a good overall rush defense I just don't know if I really want to do it So I'm gonna have Gus Edwards, but it's going to be like obligatory and I'm not gonna like it I'm not gonna actively seek him out. How are you in the backfield here for Baltimore? I Mean, yeah, that's how I feel about these guys on a on a full slate Yeah, if you look at the two-game sample without Mitchell, but excluding week 18 The snap rate's been basically split 50 50 We know Hill gets more of the targets, but Edwards has a 26 percent overall red zone share So that's the you know carries and targets versus the whole teams carries and targets 9.7 percent for Hill Usually I'm fine siding largely with targets But not in this case because of the matchup and because of what this offense is and fact that they're favored Would I be surprised that Gus Edwards scores twice not at all? No, it's just a hard salary at 6900 to sort of Make him a plug-and-play Type of options. So where does Edwards sit for you? Among all the running backs, I guess I got three questions here if I can remember them all Where does Edwards sit for you on the two-game slate? any justice Hill and a Conversation we need to have for both of the two-game slates. Are you trying to force in a running back flex? I don't think I'll be forcing in an RB flex But I think I'll get here based on the initial builds You can go McCaffrey Aaron Jones Devon Singletary if you use Brock Purdy a quarterback Which I think is probably gonna be where I'm gonna go But that to me says that Gus is my RV for on this slate. I don't think I'll get to Hill I used a larger sample. It's the games with Gus and Hill both fully active But with Mitchell not having a role. So before we got hurt to there are five games there 57.9 yards per game for Hill, which is actually not terrible 6.7 carries 3.3 targets 13.8% red zone share, but like that's not a lot of touchdown equity You know, I think like he could have 60 yards and get you 6.5 or 7 fan dual points. So Probably not gonna get to Hill. I Think it really is about those three three and a half if you want to make Gus a half running back here I'm very receptive not having running back in the flex like if I want to dump off a single pair I don't have a dump off of Aaron Jones or if it's a non-McCaffrey I'm probably gonna have only two running backs to jam in you know guys like Niko Debo IU etc etc but I'm a lower on the Ravens backfield for sure Let's talk about the past catchers for the Ravens and Mark Andrews I think back this week, but I also think likely to be not a hundred percent based on what the Twitter doctors say they've never been wrong before so we'll put full stock in that I got say flowers seven thousand Zay to me is very interesting because In the games with Andrews and with Odell Beckham playing Zay's target share goes down to twenty one point four percent It is twenty four point seven percent With Lamar without Mark Andrews So his target share goes down, but he gets a lot more deep work like they allow him to kind of be a more vertical wide receiver But it didn't really translate if you remember earlier on this year Zay would constantly be like six thousand dollars We'd use them and then we'd regret it so I I Think seven thousand has been high for the full slate for Zay. I don't view him as a priority I don't honestly view any Raven other than Lamar as a priority Despite the matchup. I'm going to use some of the lower sour guys like Beckham but like I Think they're just really spread out and we're not getting a ton of Salary compensation to account for that. So to me Lamar is the only real priority. I'm fine. He's in Lamar naked Like with no stacking partner as if at quarterback. How are you viewing the past catchers here? Yes, similar to you where nobody really really stands out to me and we have George Kittle at tight end in The in the game we're about to talk about next I Don't anticipate a huge role for mark Andrews as of Thursday morning That could change and we could get a chefty tweet or a palace a say like yeah, he's good to go They'll be a have his full role that's different Yeah, and like it's not the same I'm not saying like this is the case But like Sam Laporta seemed very unlikely to play early on last week played 80% of the snaps like It's possible. It's also possible that Andrews comes in For red zone work. It's about four or five high leverage targets. I think that's possible I wouldn't like count out Isaiah likely if especially if you're building Lamar lineups just to sort of differentiate a bit I don't know why likely just doesn't have a role whenever Andrews is active He seems really good and he produces whenever Andrews is out But it's a lot of sort of if then or like what if Conversations which you have to have on a two-game slate. There's no way around it, but Yeah, nobody's really a priority other other than Lamar and so my question to you is you're building You know, you already hit on this but you're building one lineup for the two-game slate is Lamar able to be in it Well, first of all, would you want him to be in it in a perfect scenario and then secondly? Do you think it's even feasible based on the how the rest of the slate shakes out ideal world? I would use Lamar, but we're not in an ideal world and I know I want McCaffrey more than I want Yeah, so I prioritized McCaffrey above Lamar and I do think you have to choose one or the other for this slate Yeah, it's really really difficult to build Unless you're I mean That's where someone like Justice Hill comes into play like he'll a single Terry McCaffrey I Think the guy here is Odell Sure. Yeah, we talked a lot about Odell this year where When he was healthy, he was a very productive wide receiver in terms of earning targets His yards per round number was pretty good The problem was his snaps are always very muted The question is and typically I do this thought exercises running backs But does Odell's role expand now that we're in the playoffs My lean is toward no just because I think Rashad Bateman got kind of healthier as he went along He still wasn't good at the end, but like Like I mean, I love Bateman. I just it was a rough year. So like I Lean towards no, but I do think there is scenario in which Beckham's role expands now that they're in the postseason So I'm willing to use Beckham at 56 I think of the of the skill players for the Ravens Beckham's probably the guy I'm highest on How are you reading him any interest in Bateman stuff like that? Yeah with Beckham like I definitely understand the case. I understand like a realistic path to some sort of Upside he's got a 14.2 yard a dot same as Rashad Bateman. He's average 2.4 Downfield targets in his and all of his games in 2.21 yards per out run Which is probably just the best metric that you could look at which just accounts on a Obviously on a per-route basis, but also gets targeted on 25% of his routes. Yeah Even if his role doesn't expand he's very much in play at 5600 if it does happen to expand You know, there's a path to You know being in the the perfect lineup for the full weekend. Honestly, yeah The question though is how much are they gonna throw? Are they gonna throw a deep a ton? Especially given the weather Yeah, given the given the weather but again tough rushing matchup Do you have data on like what Baltimore generally does when they face tougher rush defenses? No, okay Well, yeah, you tend to have will you tend to have? Which which defense is get run on yeah or less than others So the Texans defense faces a 53% pass rate, which is about the average the Ravens face a 56% pass rates on early downs, which is a bit above average So I think we'll see more passing volume out of the Texans than the Ravens That's also in the case of the Ravens all year like they haven't they've been good enough for them It had to like chuck it 40 times. So yeah, I think that's why I'm okay with Beckham Like not actually prioritizing but it's kind of knowing the way the slate breaks down Like it's similar to Mechie and I prefer him over Mechie Like will I use him if it allows me to get to McCaffrey? Yes, I'm okay with that personally Yeah, and just last thing about Lamar. I think he's phenomenal But and this could change in playoffs, but I feel like he's always content handing the ball off for touchdowns Yeah, he's like he's an unselfish player and I hate him. Yeah, like he should be more selfish like come on man So that makes me feel a little bit better about going with Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey Alright, so let's talk about those guys and talk about the second game on a Saturday That is the Packers at the 49ers right now fandals sportsbook Niners are nine and a half point favorites total in this game is 50 and a half right now weather issues There could be some drizzle during this game and wind speeds are six miles per hour They were four miles per hour yesterday eight miles per hour Monday So I think they'll settle in probably somewhere around six with potentially some rain in the forecast this one But not enough to be a concern at least for me Injury snowed here AJ Dylan did not practice either Tuesday or Wednesday due to his neck injury I think he's trending towards sitting once again, and then Jaden reading Christian Watson limited again They both played through their issues last week To an extent they'll play but they're not a hundred percent right now The 49ers key pieces are all healthy Trent Williams good to go Christian McCaffrey good to go Etc etc. They are full go for this game So Brandon overall thoughts for you with the Packers taking on the 49ers out in Santa Clara Yeah, so I kind of view this game the same way as the the total and the spread That puts it in a much higher tier than Houston and Baltimore for me Just prefer a lot of plays a lot of routes to this game. We're talking It it's so weird with Stroud and Lamar, but this is closer to a to QB game Even though my favorite QB is another game another one see just route like I'm more likely to build stacks of party and love It's a little that's what's a lot easier To do that for each of these guys, but I don't know Like the 49ers are such a dominant team when they're clicking that this could be a route, but I think Green Bay is Pretty good. I think Jordan loves a lot better than I think he even still gets credit for so How do you see this one playing out because I could see it going sort of one of two ways I don't I don't think the 49ers are gonna get blown out like the Cowboys did though And I think that the one of two ways is either the Niners win running away or it's a total shootout Like those are the only two routes that I see for this game. I do not see a low-scoring game here I've bet a lot of unders on big games this year. I took the over on this one But when it was a 50 I've got a 52 1.1 right now with the wind speeds at six miles per hour. So that's a big part of and like That's even with like I I think that the Niners I think we see a lot of points here And I think that the Niners are justifiably big favorites But that does not lower me on Love and the Packers because I think they're efficient enough passing to still put up Fandal points even when they're down big like we saw that with the Cowboys last week Like they were down huge but they still came through for DFS because they're efficient enough passing when when they're in a super negative script They can still move the football. So that to me is why this game is the premier game of The two-game slate and you could make a strong case for it being the premier game of the four-game slate as well Is what I would say here. And that's a big part of why I view McCastry McCaffrey as being a legitimate priority across this slate. I want to make sure I can get there because I Think he's gonna have a great role in the playoffs I think this game will feature a lot of points and I think the Packers defense despite some Impressive showings recently is one of the poorer ones that is still live in the playoffs So I like McCaffrey and I think that for like one lineup on Saturday I am very likely to pair him with Brock Purdy as the quarterback. You mentioned the two quarterback game I agree. I think that that applies to Jordan Love too. So How are you viewing Brock Purdy as far as the overall quarterback landscape for the two-game slate? He's my QB two behind Lamar, but also the most likely quarterback that I'll play He's got numerous stacking candidates including Christian McCaffrey who is you know a pretty good receiver So it gives you a lot of different variations in the in the you know the lineups where you're not playing McCaffrey or you're building a core and You move away From McCaffrey out of sort of obligation because there's gonna be a pretty narrow path to the players You're on to get McCaffrey in your lineup Swapping to a Purdy stack protects you in the sense of like hey, you know McCaffrey has 130 yards, but no touchdowns and Purdy throws for three and but you have like Naturally if people are trying to play McCaffrey, they're not gonna be able to play Dibo or IU right as much more as easily so Purdy yeah, he's been You know early on in this season He was the kind of guy who commanded an offense with multiple pass catchers and I put him sort of in like the Matthew Stafford bucket of he's got a lot of guys in play, but I don't really want to play him He has some upside though. Yeah, like like that's that's that's the biggest change probably for That's one of the that's also it's one of the biggest changes for any particular player I've had all year. Why did not expect Purdy to have Burnable ceilings. Yeah, so I'm into I'm into Purdy He has really taken advantage of matchups against past the offense his 20th or worse 283 yards per game An absurd 10.7 yards per attempt with an 8.8 yard 8 odd. I know he gets the screens to the house Conversation going around him a lot, but just been really really good. Yeah He does have some chucking in them, too Like there's a little digaff in him and like I like that for a quarterback And the upside discussion for Purdy shifted. I think on full slates When you talk about a four game slate or a two game slate even like that's a different discussion even where you don't need You know 30 point ceiling to be viable and I think he does have that So I think that Purdy to me is like you said the quarterback I'm most likely to use if I have a single lineup for this week Jordan Love. I think is my QE three Very okay getting there just because again, I think that he's been efficient enough where I can Expect them to still put up points even if they're down the 49ers ranked fifth against the past based on number fire schedule adjusted metrics They do face a ton of passes though in large part because of script But also they are not enough my favorites in this game. You can't run on them a bit. So like if it's a neutral script I think that's why you can see a lot of Aaron Jones here and I you know, I think that'd be fine But Jordan Love I think will put up points if they are down. So I Don't like using three quarterbacks on a two game slate, but I think you can justify all three. So if I am setting like betting markets right now, I'm like probably 75% likely to use three quarterbacks across the Saturday slate, which it it feels really gross But I do think it's fine for this week specifically Yeah, and love hasn't faced a ton of top ten past the offenses, but he's been good in them 272 yards per game 2.3 touchdowns per game point three set point three seven like all three drop Minnesota, Chicago and Dallas are playing good football before Point you have a point three seven EPA per drop back over opponent expectations. So that's absurd again That's a four game sample specifically. Yeah The Dallas game fits in there, but not the others there recently, but like he's he's good. He had that Hot start and then hit a lull and people kind of gave up on him myself included a bit She's the underlying data wasn't great, but everything else since then has been pretty phenomenal and he's got Multiple past catchers. Yeah problem is got too many He's got too many and they're all basically hurt They're hurt, but they're all like good when they're healthy. Yeah, like like if it were like, oh, they're all hurt You know who cares? There's no upside. Yeah, et cetera, et cetera Then like you can just like ignore and move on like it's a Patriots like who cares like I just I'm not gonna worry about it But like they're all good Looking back to last week during the wild card round route leader was Romeo Dobbs and he made me look like a dummy Because he was just posterizing dudes 16 routes run for him six targets Tucker Kraft ran 15 routes the three targets to take in wicks was next up 13 routes run Or only two targets, but one of those was deep Dobbs at three deep targets Obviously Jaden Reed was kind of he's been doing the same thing all year where he is only out there for three receiver sets and Kind of in and out of the lineup the snap rates ever super high But he's electric when he gets the ball in his hands just didn't get the ball in his hands in this game outside of punt return. So For me It feels point chasey and it makes me hate myself But I do think Dobbs is the preferred guy here as far as the past catchers go His like yards per route run numbers were pretty bad before last week, but then 151 yards there three deep targets So Dobbs salary 61 probably makes him my preferred guy I might rank wicks too just because I'm so like Desperate for salary and I think he's played well enough to like keep that role But like I do worry that with Watson a week further removed from his injury and Reed being very good Maybe wicks does get squeezed think Dobbs now less likely to get squeezed So I don't know. I think Dobbs is number one. I have a hard time identifying who is two behind him I think it's wicks, but I'm not fully convicted in that Yeah, Dobbs has to be one. He's gonna have the safest role, especially after what he did last week That's not gonna go away. And if it does, I think there's a lot a lot of questions to be asked But the expectation based on the spread is that there's gonna be extra passing volume And it is a misnomer that passing volume is how you get fantasy points of quarterback need efficiency but again as you pointed out You know the 49ers have faced a lot of passing and in this sense like Jordan love can still be efficient because He's an efficient quarterback, so I'm not worried about that. I do expect the passing volume though to be up And to sort of flow not through Dobbs, but again have him with the safest role his underlying data last week really good stuff 42% of the team's air yard 16.1 yard a dot for downfield targets, which for me are targets traveling at least 10 yards downfield two in the red zone and And you know you talk about his yards per outrun or target per out numbers. They're basically sort of average and You know, I I was always higher on Dobbs than you a prize fact that have him on some dynasty league But yeah, I've got reading a bunch of dynasty league, so that would actually make sense. Yeah, me too me too Yeah, I'm like tied to this this offense a lot, but yeah So yeah Dobbs is number one Based on salary It's it's feel it feels weird to like I don't I don't even want to say write off Jaden Reed But based on salary it feels safest to go with Tantevian wicks is also like really good This has to be the Packers like long-term plan though is like we're just gonna draft a bunch of guys in like The middle rounds and then eventually they're all gonna hit at the same time and then we're gonna have too many of They've taken that approach with with a bunch position. They did a tight end this year with with with Kraft and Musgrave They did it running back and Aaron Jones years. I think that was the Jamal Williams year, too They were both in the same draft class. I believe like they've done this for a while and it's like it worked So like why not, you know as far as Reed goes. He's hard to get to the calf re I know that five hundred dollars does not seem like a lot, but it is on this slate And so McCaffrey plus read is tough to get to in a non-McCaffrey lineup I do like the idea of getting to read because of the fact that he burned a lot of people last week and We know he's talented And he will be out there for three receivers that's what they may have more of if they're in a negative game script So for a non-McCaffrey lineup, I do like him quite a bit I just think I'll have McCaffrey and so It's more so Dobbs slash wicks slash Watson there. So I Would like to get there in my non-McCaffrey lineups. I just know that realistically it's not super easy to do So what about the tight ends for you? Musgrave 51 Kraft 48 low salaries I'm actually surprised Musgrave salary is higher He had that broken play touchdown last week But it was still craft you ran more routes 15 routes for craft compared to six for Musgrave both guys had three targets. I Still lean craft over Musgrave personally, but I also prefer just getting up to kiddle if I can So I don't know what's your read on these two guys or are they just total scratch offs for you? Oh Oh scratch offs in terms of lottery tickets or scratch off and write off. Sorry Not in terms of taxes, but just write it off. Yeah, so that's what we all do Yeah, I think we have to have a conversation more about kiddle too because it's really easy to sort of say he's the guy we want to get to but is he He with McCaffrey like really Makes things tight you can do it, but you're using Metschi and Odell I think yeah, yeah, but you are and then and then the follow-up is like, okay You kind of have that one lineup. I Like to sort of be able to pivot and change things around from my core lineup I don't think I can do that because there's basically like one lineup Maybe swapping from Purdy to love with the same lineup, but like yeah, that's that that's a that's a bit tougher So I think we have to at least be open to these tight ends I Think I'm with you though more where I liked what I saw Or I'm just gonna kind of trust what I saw last week with Kraft Yeah, having said and his his routes have been really high And it was same two weeks ago, too when it was Musgrave's first game back It was still craft and like he's played well. So I think that's he's really good blocker I think it's fair to keep him out there still yeah 78% or 79% 71% routes with Musgrave back with Musgrave at 15 and 29% So like he's working his way back. I'm sure but the the safer bet is craft Let's talk Aaron Jones. His role is amazing his salary is $7400 is still pretty low. It's a tough match-up But Jones in the game so that at least a 50% snap rate. I'm trying to make this like as Tepid for him as possible just 50% snap rate We're not going cherry picking like the most recent games But even in that sample, which is a seven-game sample 18.6 carries per game It's 3.7 targets 108.4 yards and scrimmage per game and a 42% red zone share He has been a featured back when he's had a 50% snap rate or better Probably no age you don't this week. So from a role perspective Aaron Jones Goes nuts from a match of perspective kind of tough and the spread is not ideal. So I Would like to get to Jones on my main lineup and I think I will Where are you on him at 74 all things considered? Well, I would I would assume that if they are trailing like we you know, you can just scroll down a little bit for the targets He's got a game of five targets four six six five five like Aaron Jones getting targets is Opt very very understandable and yes a smart way to play football. So The question though is I think ultimately look the over a hundred rushing yards and four straight If he gets you a hundred scrimmage yards, but not a touchdown at 7400. Are you happy with that? That's like kind of what you got out of James Cook last week and no, you wouldn't be happy with that. Yeah, um, but His red zone roles are really good. Yeah, and if we're expecting points Like I want to get to Jones he might honestly be So we know the biggest priority is McCaffrey. Yes I Other names that might be in that like conversation in terms of positional priorities would be Kittle Lamar I don't really know if there's any receivers who I would put in that on the two game slate Like is is Jones like the second guy you like are you more willing to like Remember to your priorities. Um, McCaffrey one Kittle two Jones three for me. Okay I'm not gonna argue that. Yeah So he's a high priority for us then he is even with the spread being where it is I do think that Aaron Jones is the right way to play things for The two game slate and also a consideration for the four game slate is not as big of a priority They're given. There are some good mid-range running backs on sunday Let's talk about the 49ers side of things. We of course do have Diba sannual brendan iuk george kittle I talked about McCaffrey already and we know we want to get there But realistically we're not going to get there every lineup. So in a non-McCaffrey lineup Who is your biggest priority between the other three in the big four? I mean it has to be Kittle based on the conversation. We just had the positional Well, this is a non non-McCaffrey lineup. Just keep that in mind But that's part of why Diba on a uker lesser priorities for me is because I'm assuming I have McCaffrey in there Yeah, and he really I mean you can you can make it work, but you're gonna dislike a lot of the plays you you probably have I would this is this is a weird one because I want to say iuk because he's got in games with everyone active He's got 90 scrimmage yards a game 23 target share gets downfield work But the red zone role is not necessarily ideal and I always tend to prefer downfield work because it's more stable But whenever you're comparing him to Dibo Samuel on a playoff setting, you're just like They're gonna have plays for him. He's gonna do some stuff. He's gonna get carries. He's gonna have a good red zone role in that sample 18% of the team's red zone plays went to Dibo He's gonna get a red zone carry. I'm sure he's gonna get probably another carry as well. If not more So like if I wasn't comparing Brandon iuk to Dibo Samuel I'd probably say iuk But I think I have to go Samuel due to the sheer like yeah Torch the slate upside that he possesses melt your face off upside. Yeah Yeah, he has that And that's why I'm there too If you look at the games with all them healthy, which I think might have been the sample you were looking at Oh, no, I look at different samples. I omit the games where Dibo is like clearly like not healthy earlier on this year but in that sample 86.7 yards per game for Dibo and 83.9 for iuk so very similar there with a slight edge towards Dibo But in this is similar to the number you had 18.4 red zone share for Dibo and it's half for iuk so yardage slight favor Slightly leaning towards Dibo, but then the touchdown equity. It's like almost double for Dibo. So That's why to me an anon macafe lineup Dibo is a bigger priority and I think if I'm not going macafe I need to have one of Dibo or iuk in that lineup I think that's where I settle in on it You can I mean Look two game slates or a whole yeah one eye jack got to get the obligatory hashtag just play Dibo in there and I agree In on the caphril on us with that being the caveat, please read the fine print Yeah, just because it's almost impossible to to play both together But yeah, two game slates are you're gonna have some unoptimal plays I at least want to briefly ask you about defense just to see like who's a cross-off for you for defense, but You can play a purdy Dibo iuk and kiddle stack Like you get all three of them. Yeah You know The chances all three of them have huge games It's not it's not zero, but like you wouldn't normally do that on a full slate, but You know, you can kind of do it. So, uh, that's interesting as a pivot away from a caphril Sure, I think it could be. Um, I'm okay using any defense on us except for the Packers at 32 Um, I'll use the other three. That's fine Because the wind is high enough to justify the Texans I think and Derek Stingley is pretty good. Well, there's just pretty good So I wanted to go there. Um You can make a macaffery Dibo lineup work But I think you need to go with craft at tight end if you're gonna do that I think that's the the key thing here. So we both listed kiddle as being a priority Why what puts you there for you and then I'll give my reasoning as well uh, he's just frankly Phenomenal to me. I think he's like I don't think he gets as much opportunity as he is he would naturally on a different team but in the playoffs, um And in a game where I'm Way higher on this game than I am compared to the other game and I think that If Mark Angus plays he's not gonna do enough necessarily to separate but he's also gonna ding Isaiah likely I'm fine with like craft But just from a positional scarcity standpoint and a salary standpoint, right, you know kiddle can get He has run after the catch potential as we all know He just has that Man, I should have just found like $800 and played kiddle and sacrificed a little bit at receiver or something like that That's the big reason for me is the salary 64 to dollars for kiddle. I think that you can make an argument that he is $700 under salaried like if I were playing name that salary and kiddle, I probably had gone 71. I think um, and I think that That might be the biggest discrepancy on the slate like mccaffrey is worth his salary But I don't think he's under salaried where they do think kiddle is so in terms of like sheer value on this slate I think that kiddle might be the number one guy in that regard Packers are also 28th in yards per route run allowed to Uh tight ends and 28th and eight out allowed He could he could have a four target game 30 yards and they could still score you can have a four target game for 130 yards and three touchdowns to though Yeah, he could Um, this is this is different than just a FOMO like well, I guess I should play him out of fear. It's Boy, that salary is really nice. The matchup's there the game environment's nice. I have a hard time You know, I would be more okay No, I can't say that because it was honestly. I was gonna say I was almost gonna say do it do it I was almost gonna say I'd be more okay Like saying, you know what I couldn't get the mccaffrey, but I built a really good lineup with higher upside plays elsewhere Then I would like I'm gonna feel like a real idiot if I Don't get to kiddle enough and he has the game that I think he can Yeah, because of the other options and the salary. So that's not I didn't want to say it because uh Kiddle was less of a priority than mccaffrey, but yeah It's probably closer than I think. Yeah, I think that too. Uh, any other thoughts for you on the saturday slate I think we covered it. Alrighty. Let's move now to the sunday slate over on fan duel.com and begin things by talking about It's the uh the um, let's see here What's the the the cast off bowl? That's the word we're going with the cast off bowl Baker mayfield against jared golf my two sons dueling on the football field uh up in detroit right now fangirl sports book The lions are six and a half point favorites total in this game is 48 and a half There is no weather in detroit in case you were curious about that Injuries for this game sam la porta gotten a full practice on wednesday should be close to the full strength this week Which is good to hear chris godwin and chase edmunds both in his practice wednesday Godwin is a knee injury. It's a toe for edmunds. Godwin got a rest day on thursday Thursday, uh, well, no, I guess it was friday because they played monday So whatever the second practice the week last week for a knee injury I'd assume he's okay But edmunds was not on the injury report last week And that could be significant for ashad white if edmunds cannot go So I would keep close tabs on the chase edmunds injury news for this one What are your overall views of this game brandon and lions taken on the buccaneers the lone dome game on the slate Yeah, you got to you got to have uh Some extra attention to the dome game even though the other game on this slate is chiefs and bills lot sexier, you know but You know, I think they're there are at least questions to be had about tampa bay In terms of their offense They've gotten basically I'll just sum it up as lucky in a lot of ways according to like the data that I like to look at They've tended fate a lot Yeah, they've been very dependent maker mayfield like making s word stuff happen SHIT at I don't know whatever he's making stuff happen on laid downs Which i'm not sure is optimal from an approach perspective. I don't want to put the tag on the podcast on apple. So um, yeah, so like I kind of I kind of like Detroit here relatively heavy, but that's not to say that uh, I'm out on the buccaneers especially Maybe we should just start with with rashad white because he's someone that if anyone's listening to our podcast They've basically heard rashad white in our love section Week in week out But his role has been getting a little bit more diminished if you just look at his average snap rate From the buy to week 15. It was 81 percent But since week 16 70 72 percent Getting a little bit phased out especially with the passing game work, but that could as you mentioned Come back this week and at the salary like Boy, he could be he could be a slate he could open up everything he could be a sort of a core play for the four game slate, but um, where are you with I'm assuming white without edmunds is a more or less plug-and-play You might not be as high as I am on that but where are you with him if we get edmunds because The efficiency isn't what necessarily drew us to white. It was the volume and the opportunity So if we get edmunds there, I think there is a very obvious path to failure And I'd be looking to unders on rashad white like rushing plus receiving because it does seem like they like chase edmunds You know I Like rashad white more, but that doesn't matter like who cares what I like And it's also a tough rushing matchup against Detroit So he's gonna be dependent on getting work through the air, which he does really well Like he's he used to be a receiver like he's and you can tell when you watch him play Like this guy's very good at the ball in his hands, but like, you know, I don't want to be fully dependent on that to get yardage so If there's no chase edmunds, I prefer james cook or sorry if there is chase edmunds. I prefer james cook At 68 for the two game slate. I prefer isaac pacheco. Regardless on the two game slate I know shocker If there is no chase edmunds, I think that he and james cook are more on level footing I still would probably lean james white, but it's not Full full james white Sorry james collate. Oh my god Yeah, james white. Yeah. Oh, I don't know. I don't I didn't I didn't keep up with them, but um, yeah, hopefully some problem Yeah, I just wanted to ask because you know that should be like a screaming value to us But there's reasons why the salary is down and there are reasons why We're not just Plugging in white and going from there So what about the Detroit guys because I was listening about priorities on the slate and they didn't they didn't quite Make that list Um, I prefer pacheco again shocker over gibbs I think this matchup sets it better for gibbs given how good tampa bay is against the run last week We saw a lot of Montgomery which made sense because they were ahead for a good amount of that game Not like way ahead but like they were in a positive script and you can get the rams on the ground Bucking ears that's a bit tougher to do based on number fires schedule adjusted metrics the bucks third against the rush 20th against the pass so I think gibbs makes a lot of sense in 73. I would rank him below James cook and rachad whites Um, but where are you on? Uh gibbs the Montgomery in this matchup Yeah, I mean when you have two running backs in dfs on a full slate You don't really have any that we want to target very often unless the salary is right on a two game slate Even a four game slate. It's a little bit different Uh last week Montgomery with a 55 snap rate was just more more to utilize But that was also the case in the first half 55 percent of the first half snaps You make a good point where this does set up script wise as more of a junior gibbs type of of game But even with the snap rate differential again 55 percent and 33 percent for the full game last week Because gibbs gets targets and because of the way that we value targets Yeah, their workload was actually about equal It was exactly and 68 yards in scrimmage and 16 adjusted opportunities each for both guys And adjusted opportunities for us carries plus double your targets because on average a target leads to twice as many Fandal points as a carry for running backs. So that's just the way that we do things But 15 target share the red zone role clearly belonged more to Montgomery, but It's hard to like ignore Passing game work and I don't necessarily anticipate even though their favorites that he doesn't Get that worked because last week he got four targets if this game does stay close You know, so there's more of a risk with gibbs It's not that Montgomery is inherently safe But gibbs also has a path to upside. So if I had to pick one, I would so probably just lean Montgomery due to the fact that They are favored pretty heavily. I expect this game to score enough points. His red zone role is good but gibbs is someone that It's a really easy justification to differentiate and I would probably consider building lineups for the sunday slate With enough salary to get the gibbs and then just duplicating that and playing one or the other Yeah, I think they're very similar. The reason I prefer gibbs over Montgomery is the matchup But also in the 10 game sample with montgomery being back 76.5 yards per game for gibbs 74.9 from Montgomery so slide edge for gibbs 34 red zone share for gibbs 28 percent from Montgomery. So it's slight edge for gibbs in both categories It's not a huge one But then you factor in the match if that pushes me more towards gibbs there I want to talk about the quarterbacks of this game because we mentioned that Game environment here is better than the kins city buffalo game I still think I like both quarterbacks in that game more than goff and bayfield Goff and mayfield though Um Is that egregious like is that stupid on my part to prefer the two cyborgs over the two Efficient passers who but who are indoors? Uh, I don't think it's egregious. I think they're all in play to some degree though uh Boy, we're gonna talk priorities eventually josh allen definitely Someone that you want to prioritize when you can but we'll get there in a second I think that this one Is a little less priority driven and a little more Which game are you stacking more heavily? Which game in that particular lineup? Do you think is the one to stack? Uh, and kind of build off of that. So i'm lowest on mayfield naturally. Yeah, but You know I would consider all four of them even though. I don't want to play all four I think make uh, I think mayfield is the qb4 though. So you almost said maker So it makes you feel better saying dayfield. I know you got me all all maker bayfield. Yeah, um But yeah, um, let's say you're building Like 10 lineups and you're picking a quarterback from this game. What's your split of golf versus baker 6-4? So that got that close then. Yeah, I think the question I'd ask you is mohomes or golf I love that we're asking this question by the way because it makes me so happy I I know, um, I don't I mean, I guess I can just get into some of the mohomes conversation because you know buffalo Second and adat allowed In that first matchup His adat was seven yards And in six games against teams that were top 10 and you know passing average depth of target allowed His adat was 5.9 yards Really efficient. All things considered 56 passing success rate 0.23 epa per dropback over expectation, but The downfield pass gets sort of erased here, uh, for mohomes I think that's going to happen again based on what we've seen trend wise against similar matchups I love mohomes. I hate I hate what defenses are doing to him. Um But yeah, man, it is close and I I might go golf Okay, like six out of 10 times I think it's close though. What about you? I prefer mohomes because of this number 41 rushing yards last week 53 two games before that He runs more in the playoffs and that adds a dynamic that we don't see like we saw it more this year I guess for mohomes, but like For a long time we've seen mohomes run more during the playoffs and I care about that So if it weren't for that, I would go golf But because that I go seven seven three Mohomes over. Yeah, I have 10 Yeah, I'm I'm Recanting what I said. I'm going mohomes. Also, uh, but it the fact that it's close is pretty wild Let me um Just gotta look at something really quick go over here. What is Patrick mohomes anytime touchdown? Uh Because he has not scored a rushing touchdown yet this year plus 600. Let's go You know, I that's that's my View of this is I think he's gonna run for a touchdown. Well, I'm not gonna run for a touch He's gonna run more than usual. Yeah, that's beneficial Now what are like, well, I guess we'll talk about mohomes more. I guess we should stick with this game Sure. Okay. Let's talk about the pass catchers here. Amon Ross a brown salary is $9,200 or she writes 78 Um, and then you get to um, well where she writes is not in this game. What am I talking about? Okay, so let's talk about the pass catchers in this game Both these teams are good against the rush which I think will funnel more work towards the pass It's another mark in favor of Golf and mayfields think we'll see a good amount of passing volume here It should be efficient because they're efficient passers and they're indoors So what's your read on the pass catchers here starting with the studs and then talking about the lower salary plays on both sides Yeah, I mean you look at Amon Ross st. Brown. You just can't nitpick it. It's a matter of What's your like sort of fear level? That's not I mean the salary I know that the gym's circling for anyone who's not watching closely Who's the bigger priority for you Amon Ross or Josh Allen? Which Josh Allen Which Josh Allen? I said, well, it's Josh Allen. Oh It's like the jaguars guys at home. No, no, I play. Yeah, I play IDP. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, could you imagine? Oh, oh green dots man green dots snap rate. Let's go I can't I I have full respect for your IDP analysts. I will never be one of you though. Good for you guys, you know Yeah, I don't yeah, I don't I don't I don't know. Um But um, I don't want to think about it anymore Since the buy for this team excluding You know week 18 with the port of leaving early Amon Ross st. Brown's got a 29 and a half target share 2.9 downfield targets per game 17 percent of the red zone opportunities in 38 percent of the red zone targets He's got like that just volume based upside that you love and in a sense I'm more likely to play that on a two game slate because He's I don't it's not the floor but The odds of him just getting Three targets for like eight yards just doesn't exist because it's not how he Or I guess I should say three catches for like 20. I think the key difference is you don't need a 30 burger That's yeah, it's basically it's basically what I'm getting at. Uh, if I Still ran like standard deviation numbers. He'd probably be one of the most consistent. Um You know wide receivers that we have or just frankly players overall, so I really like them I just don't know if I can quite get there because I want to play a lot of Josh Allen And while we talked about liking all four quarterbacks Boy, I I want to get to Josh Allen who would talk to or talk about later. I think that the biggest um priority For this game as far as pass catchers go is evans I don't know if I can get there with an Allen and that's kind of the key thing But like if I could play an ideal world, I want Mike Evans like I know you can watch last week and be like, oh my gosh, he kept dropping passes. This is miserable Like what is he doing? But that also means he was getting open And you put that indoors Mike Evans has had issues with drops at times in his past but also If I'm betting on Mike Evans Catching an open open target. I'm going to bet on him to do so versus against him doing so So it's kind of like a bet on regression for Mike Evans now the counterpoint here would be If we're looking at this offense from week 14 on which is where David Morris snaps run up, which is weird that I have to look at that but um in that time Chris Godwin's target share is 27% Mike Evans is at 21% in that time Evans has a 44% deep target here. It's just tremendous. Godwin's at 31% though, which is not bad Red zone targets do still favor Evans 27% to 13% so Although Evans to me is a priority because I want those efficient deep balls and I want his like Grown man strength. I do think Godwin's a pretty good play too. Uh, how are you feeling about those guys and any interest in David Moore or Trey Palmer here? Or k-dot and I guess I'm not going to use k-dot and I don't care what happened last week, but no He's in like every optimizer. I think good for them. You can I'll chase points of romeo dobs. I'm not going to chase points Talk about talk about some drops though But you still went for like 89 yards. I know miserable I think it's only in completions. We're all drops. Was he like eight for 11? Yeah How do you lose 32 to nine when the opposing team has like six impactful drops like yeah Uh, Detroit 31st in yards per out run allowed to wide receivers 29th and a dot that sets up for Mike Evans I think you make a really good point with trying to prioritize Uh, Evans as for like chris godwin I'm okay with it for sure. I've been higher on him in the past Uh You know, it's just by comparison He's like an all-monra st. Brown light now, but he's not the top guy in the offense So Again though, this comes back to How much you're stacking this game? I'm more likely to it's not like this It's not to say that I'm not playing godwin in a one-off or if I'm not playing baker, but You know, I think like a godwin evans baker stack is really appealing. Uh So I think I'm a little more game dependent with godwin than I am much more Much more game dependent than I am with evans. Okay, I agree that Uh, let's talk about the Detroit side as far as the value plays go We got josh reynolds the 61 and jemison williams at 53 reynolds had another good game last week I Dismissed him last week because I thought okay the target spike in week 18. They didn't need to win that game and it was uh His friend jarred golf trying to get him incentives, but then Revenge game last week and reynolds pops up in a big way seven targets 80 yards So I am more open to josh reynolds now than I was I still like jemison williams because that salary is at 53 How are you feeling about these two guys in the context of the two game slate? Yeah, so again, if I look at like the post buy without the sort of adjusting for the porta Reynolds is at 11.3 percent target share 17.1 percent of the air yards a dots over 10 and a half yards 2.1 downfield targets per game Not a great red zone roll, but You're not going to get everything at a salary like this and over the past two weeks He's had single game target shares of 23 percent and 27 percent I don't know how you look at that in an indoor environment and just sort of Cross it off. I don't think he's like a true core play because This might not be as sticky as we would like for it to be but I also think that it's sticky enough to kind of assume that He will be in like my main lineup because of What I need to do to get to some of the higher upside plays and build around three Mid-range because every running backs basically mid-range on this slate Yeah to get access to three of them and not kind of overlook The obvious route of flexing or running back with a good roll this week. So I think Reynolds probably there I think we'll have to have the Reynolds and Shakir conversation. Maybe once we get to that Later game, but where are you with Reynolds? Um, I'm more likely to use Jameson Williams than Reynolds because 800 dollars and I know I know I know I don't need to tell you that but I should tell people that because I can't have some people know my My vices, um, but williams last week ran 26 routes Amanra and Reynolds bull friend 29. So he was right there and only two targets What? This catch rate over expectation on two targets was 41 and he's good. He's good. What do you mean? Come on? Um What stop come on get out of If you look at the game since their bi-week That williams has been fully healthy submitting the game. He missed in week 18 and emitting um Week 17 if you include week 17 his his target share would actually go up because he had three targets before he left But let's disregard that 10 target share for williams compared to 11.7 for Reynolds 27 deep target share for williams 23 for Reynolds. So I think they're just kind of similar And yet I'm getting 800 discount on williams Like for Reynolds for me It's a one game sample of improving because like I could not care less what he did in week 18 because williams was not playing I don't think that game is relevant as far as this. I think last week was it's like that's relevant But like I think it's a one game sample of him being Uh guy like a target earner were anyways against his former teams were revenge game narrative. Um But I can save $800 and go williams. So I'm gonna go williams over Reynolds And I like Shakir more than Reynolds too Uh, so williams earned a target on 16.1 of his of his routes Reynolds 14 and a half percent This is full season just for context 1.40 yards per outrun for each of them uh Reynolds Much more likely to get like End zone or red zone work again full season I would have to prefer him but the The point of the $800 Is enough that williams williams. Uh, definitely. I I just want to call him williams then There there was a similar ish. I I can't say similar. So that's very rude to him There was another former first round pick who was like known for speed and like d targets named Troy williamson He was like vikings like seventh overall pick like way back when I was a kid. Um I'm hoping you're not associating the two because that would be really no Sad It's his first name. Oh Yeah, that's where I'm coming from and I know like it's not like I can't remember it It's just like every time I say it I just want to like I gotta pause Uh, but yeah, he's very much in play and again another reason why like look, I I know I went back and forth on goff. I still might by the end of this prefer goff to mahomes because I don't necessarily anticipate uh a lot of downfield work for mahomes But goff's got Numerous pass catchers. Uh, we gotta talk about la porta as well. Sure. Uh, so let's move there But yeah, I think three receivers are in play for goff at least Yeah, I think so too. Um with la porta at 66 His role is really good. I just prefer can k to 62 and I think I prefer calcy at 71 as well So I think he's a titan three for me on this slate. Is that too low? Where are you on the porta compared to calcy and kade? Uh, I don't think it's like too low It it comes back to that's why I said this this slate is more It's not about who you prioritize so much as it is I think What game you're stacking and which way you're stacking it if you're playing like mahomes I don't know how you play in mahomes and not calcy Like at that at that rate unless you're saying mom's gonna run for two touchdowns and three touchdowns. Actually, yes, sure sure So this one's definitely more stack dependent to me But yeah, la porta very intriguing Because his role is just really good and the matchup Is actually really appealing to uh tampa bay 30th and targets target per route rate Allowed to the position 27th in yards per route run I think it's appealing. I'm it sounds like I'm higher on the porta than you are even if he's not 100% but he played a lot of snaps last week. So la porta or concade La porta I feel safer with his workload. Okay. I'll go concade in that one personally. Um They're finally throwing the ball down field to him. What a novel concept kudos to joe brady for unlocking The key to this entire offense Let's talk about that game right now and talk about the bills and the cheats right now at fan dual sports book Bills are two and a half point favorites. That line has held steady throughout the entire week Total in this game is 45 and a half. There is some potential wins game nine miles per hour slight downgrade But nothing too outrageous there Um, but to keep in mind this one is outdoors versus the other one is indoors I have total in this game at 45 A total for detroit tampa bay 47.8. So not a huge gap, but it does favor the indoor game At least based on what my model says Uh injuries to note for this week still no gave davis a practice on wednesday The knee injury that forced him to set out the wild card round I think he'll probably set out this one as well And then the bills linebackers are super banged up. Uh, seems likely to both bail inspector and terrell bernard missed this game So could open up some things for the cheats and who benefits from banged up linebackers Running backs and tied ends and you know, just more justification for me to use as a ficheco What's your overall view here of cheats versus bills? Yeah, similar to you were uh, I know what the total is but um, kind of expecting Fewer points than I do with uh, tampa bay in detroit We talk a lot during the season about second time around divisional matchups, which is not what this is But these two teams played relatively recently Uh, how do you tend to like factor that in? sort of rematches for teams in the playoffs Hmm, I don't really factored in I think a lot of people do Yeah And like look at that one game sample and I'm like I do that a bit I think every game this week is rematch except for packers 49ers Yeah, this one though stands out so much because of how it ended and because these two teams are like these two teams But it was just something that I figured we probably should have touched on uh earlier, but Yeah, my fear just my overall fear is like Again mohomes in that game Didn't throw deep a lot mohomes against teams that try to limit downfield passing Like I guess it's not that he doesn't throw deep it's that he throws so many bunnies that And then also throws deep which is fine But it's a lot of like Low a dot targets, which he doesn't throw deep to the right guys That's that's also probably fair Like if you look at um, I've got here the sample on them being Since they're bi-week emitting week 18, but factoring in the playoff game um Rishi writes has a 14 deep target share and travis calis is a 21 So when they do go deep, they're not going to those two guys. They're going to justin watson was a 30 deep target share And like that that does mean justin watson is in play, but it also means that you know When you're stacking mohomes You're less likely to get like a huge deep ball touchdown with the stacking partner you have with him Yeah, um now in that match up like kelsey and rice both had 10 targets Rice 72 yards and a touchdown kelsey 83 yards no scores But if they they did get some downfield work at least three downfield targets apiece, but the eight out themselves You know for rice in particular, but that's kind of typical for rice where he's I don't want to throw him in the debo bucket like he gets downfield work, but his eight outs are also really low um Which is just kind of peculiar to see I like both of them. Uh, I think the conversation needs to well you have rice here, but I think the real conversation is Can kelsey still torch us do you expect him to do that This week can he yes, he had 71 yards last week on 10 targets And 10 targets for a tight end is pretty tough to duplicate And the gap between kelsey's salary and the other guys I think we're considering here and leporta and kade is not that large So I do think that kelsey can burn us for not using him Uh, 21 target share for kelsey since their bi-week emitting week 18 21 deep 20 inside the red zone Uh, this past week. I thought his role was pretty good. He had another key drop there, which is annoying, but like and and again He will benefit more from the banged up linebackers than rishi rice will So if you give me one my homes lineup, I am more likely to have kelsey in it than rishi rice In large part because I think that the replaceability of rice with my gavons right beneath him is higher than it is with kelsey and the other guys I agree completely and It's not that he's due, but he hasn't scored in two four Six seven straight games. I think he scored plenty. But yes, um, like, um, it's been a bit since he scored a touchdown For travis kelsey. So waiting on regression on the touch the on the the football field at least You're not gonna Transition anything else. You're just gonna let that sit in the ether for a bit Yeah, okay. Let's talk justin watson then I figured you would just move on. I didn't think you okay anyway Um, justin watson's salary is $5,000. I kind of thought that michael hardman would get a roll up tick this past week and he did um He was on the field a bunch, but like it didn't go well and it seemed like he was not in the same page with my homes 26 routes run for watson versus 18 for hardman 18 for marquette's valda scantling as well And it's mentioned watson has a 30 deep target share So I think it's kind of one of those plunker nose and like put him in kind of things I prefer jameson williams over justin watson But I am receptive to watson At times how are you feeling about him in this spot? I don't have nearly as much interest. I think as you do based on what you don't want to use a guy with a 10 10% target share Since they're by no no and like It's not just that it's sort of the expectations. I would play watson more if I expected downfield passing to be there, but It is a big fear of mine with What teams force mom's to do and we already kind of saw it, you know in a sense Again, it's not that moms will not throw downfield. It's that he has a Very low a dot So he's going to have some shots, but if he doesn't connect on those It could be a lot of just horizontal passing and that might not be enough to separate Especially when you're looking at the other side of the ball in this game with josh allen So I know Going from watson to josh allen is kind of a transition there, but it's the same thing I don't like do you expect enough passing from the homes to make watson relevant? It sounds like you do Yeah, but I kind of am just a little bit worried about you mean enough passing or enough deep passing Both okay more of the deep passing like i'm not actively seeking out watson But i'm being realistic that if I wanted to josh allen 94 I got to save salary So you don't need to you don't need to play justin watson to do that With josh allen Yeah, that's probably fair. Um, is allen your quarterback one across the four game slate? I think the two games later kind of goes without saying Yeah, I would have to put him there. Yeah, he's just I mean It's incredible what he does Like the the ability to run Not just consistently, but to break long runs and then also honestly Bake out the fenders And like they're pick up first downs over expectation Like only he can at this point There are no other teams in football where you're excited when they have third and eight because third and eight means josh allen's probably gonna run He's probably gonna do some crazy stuff And like he's gonna get hit And like stopped and then Break a tackle from someone like a linebacker who's actually smaller than he is. Yeah Like he's so yeah Yeah, uh, my my number is definitely Like allen on the four game slate primarily You're gonna have more value opportunities. Lamar is close, but uh for me, it's gonna be be allen because While lamar seems content handing the ball off to any of 16 running backs Uh, josh allen gets those touchdowns lately. So yeah, I'm leading allen and that makes uh Him a true priority on the two game slate where and I think it's gone overlooked the tush push factor with them Like he's pretty bad at it. Um like I I think it's someone of like a massive like attention deficit issues I think he needs like something to like help him focus because like He's looking at like the sticks when he's trying to like do a tush push It's like just go forward man, and then the rest will figure it out. Um, so like just pay attention to the ball josh Uh, put your head down tush push. He like somehow like Summer solves through the air on a tush push. It's very weird. He's bad at it, but they do it. So like that's great so I think that part needs to be factored into uh with allen is that they will get tush pushes and some easy Short yardage touchdowns as well. Let's talk about his pass catchers. Uh, stifon dig 75 I assume there's no gade davis again this week Which means clear Shakira very interesting 59 and then also dalton k checks in at 6200 dollars looking back to last week, uh digs ran 30 routes Shakira in 28 though So Shakira 59 hundred dollars. Where does he settle in for you? How you feel about digs and kinkade as well? Sorry, you said digs ran 30 routes and kinkade or sorry Shakira in 28. Yes Did digs miss snaps or was he just banged up and then came right snaps He did get banged up at one point. No, I know I just Couldn't quite remember that but yeah, she's here. He's a weird dude. I don't know Just the three targets, uh, but an 88 percent route rate that just stands out relative to Really any wide receivers because even though we've seen A decrease in full workloads for running backs We've also kind of you don't get like 100 percent route rates very often or like 95 percent route rates very often for receivers. So 88 percent very intriguing even though it was only three targets You know you had the touchdown, but he's like a good player Buffalo seems to get the ball into the hands of like their better players Whenever they have players who can kind of do stuff So I feel kind of decent with Shakira at 59 helps offset a lot of the salary for josh alan And it also could just kind of protect you because like alan might run for two touchdowns and throw for two and Even if Shakir has 40 yards doesn't score. You don't really want that But the salary to get up to alan I think kind of makes it worth it in the correlation play. So I like Shakir, but where are you with digs? And someone we haven't really played all year. Yeah, I played him a lot in the miami game Which didn't go great. It was fine. Um, but It seems like they're actively trying to get in the ball more recently, which is good I think they've realized how big the downturn has been for him from a Workload perspective nine targets in that game against Kansas City or against, um Uh, but about Pittsburgh And it's eight out with six point nine Part of that could have been the wind because the wind was pretty high there But like they're willing to throw it out field to concave knocks and stuff like that So I think that to me says they were scheming up targets for which is is good But like would you rather go digs outdoors in 75 or mike evans indoors in 76? Evans Yeah, this is with the caveat that i'm gonna play a lot of josh and alan right, uh evans pretty often. Yeah, I agree with that too Let's talk about the running backs in this game. Isaiah pacheco. Sorry 7500 dollars I think the mckinnon had surgery. So i'm pretty sure he's not back this week He at least was not activated for practice on wednesday. So I think we'll get another week with no mckinnon here for the chiefs uh, james cook Checks in at 6800 dollars. I like both personally quite a bit prefer pacheco uh, pacheco my rb1 for this slate Potentially my rb1 for the entire weekend and james cook is right up there too. So I like both these guys a lot Where do you sit on these two? Yeah, sorry. I was trying to look into the mckinnon's the mckinnon stuff I don't think he's coming back. Um, I think he did have the surgery but uh Yeah, these two You know pacheco It's weird I probably prefer like pacheco as the route to the chiefs compared to mohomes because the alternative is josh Al and his quarterback pacheco is the bring back kind of thing like i'm more likely to do that than I think play mohomes, um More often than not i'm gonna play some mohomes lineups for sure like it's not Yeah, but pacheco his role really strong. He's really good. He runs like he's never gonna stop Um, I'm a little lower on cook by comparison. I know like you you said pacheco is your favorite running back of the whole weekend I don't know how much cook I want to play um, if i'm just being honest, I don't like I don't I just worry about like the touchdown equity sure and I don't love this game overall but pacheco by comparison easily to stand out But i'm not against playing cook with alan even though they can sort of cannibalize each other But they can't also double dip because uh cook in the games of joe brady as often's coordinators at 3.7 targets per game 15.9 carries per game. So I know the production is not been there recently, but it can be and the chiefs are gettable on the ground um, they're defense Based on number fire schedule adjusted metrics 27th against the rush So I could see cook being a really efficient piece in this game 18 carries four targets last week and that's a first round game They do filter in like latavius murray and ty johnson ty johnson's red zone sharing games that joe brady is actually 17 percent. Um, so like, you know Cook's at 26 percent. So it's not the worst But it's also not great. So yeah I like it more than you do and i'm okay with that but I think that these are the top two guys for me on The two game slate, uh pecheco one cook two Yeah on the two game slate, I think by default. Yeah, it's going to be cook is my second back I would go white overcook if there's no edmunds okay, um But his path to production is at least less blocked up than what we have for gibbs and montgomery I just think it's like pecheco And then I could sort of be talked into playing any any two of the four of gibbs montgomery cook and white in that lineup Just not really gives in montgomery together. Are you leaning towards an rb in the flex on the sunday slate? Yeah, I think that there is enough good workloads here where that's a lot easier to justify on the two game slate As in building out lineups. I kind of find if i'm playing macafery Um flex and receivers Yeah, that's her I can understand that I made one With um macafery plus single terry plus jones, but it would it involves some gross stuff that people might not be Yeah, it might not be into so I get it any final thoughts for you on this game or across any of the four games for this weekend Uh one more look defenses on sunday that's Lions at 44. Do you think you have the salary to get there? Yeah, but i'm willing to go Any of the four honestly like if I need to drop down to bucks fine. It is what it is. Okay I think i'm with you. Um But yeah, we we never talked enough about So there's really one defense we're not in on and it's the packers across the texans. No, sorry. Yeah packers, you're right Yeah, yeah, I mean like it is what it is. So just kind of let let your roster dictate where you go there I I'm going to jump down if it allows me to get to you all the fun guys because there are a lot of fun guys Across this weekend That is all that we have here for this week here on the heat check fantasy podcast But we are back with you once again next week on thursday 10 am eastern on the fandal youtube page breaking down the conference championship Two game slates make sure subscribe to the fandal youtube page Leave us a thumbs up if you like what you heard on this version of it as well And also find these shows on fandal tv plus and the number fire daily fantasy podcast for you brandon If people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? i'm on twitter at goodwill of 13 gd ULA 13 and i'm on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and you can follow fandal research on twitter Add fandal research want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your lineups across all the slates of this weekend. Enjoy the football We'll talk to you once again next week. This is done heat check fantasy podcast right here on the fandal podcast network