 Alright what's up guys this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list and we also go over indexes and other analysis so we tuned in last week we actually had a pretty slow week in the stock market there was nothing going on that was super crazy there wasn't big data sets or anything arguably the market was moving purely off technicals and levels since there wasn't really any data going on but we did have some pretty good setups last week AMD had a great Monday we're looking at calls on that eventually rejected off the price target we had also had shop puts and RCL puts RCL had a pretty good dump on Monday as well I think it went down as much as 3% and then eventually just chopped the rest of the week so you kind of had to be quick with that one and shop pretty much downturned it all week and hit our price target so pretty good week for our setups relatively slow week for the market indexes weren't really pointing to too many great setups or anything like that but we'll go into the indexes later this week is arguably the most important a of the month or it's at least going to be one of the most important days of the month and that's because we have the CPI we do have an inflation reading coming out this week and this is arguably the most important thing moving the markets inflation whether it's up or down it's moving off people speculating on inflation whether it's going up or down and also that ties into the Federal Reserve and how they are doing interest rate hikes and also planning to eventually pause or cut interest rate hikes so the markets all about inflation it's been all about inflation ever since 2022 arguably since 2021 since that's when it started actually going up but the fight didn't start until 2022 when the Fed started the rate hike cycle I think it was in March of 2022 so it's just been all about inflation that's why CPI is always the biggest data set probably will stay the biggest data set for a little while at least until you know calms down a little bit and gets back to the Fed's 2% inflation target so you can see Monday and Tuesday Monday September 11th rest in peace everybody who lost their life in September 11th 2001 tragic day for America hopefully the markets will be a little bit optimistic that day maybe feeling a little American and we can see some upside in the market Tuesday September 12th nothing scheduled now Wednesday is the big day we do have the consumer price index we have core CPI CPI year over year core CPI year over year and that's our big data set for the week that all comes out at 830 Eastern and then Thursday just our usual initial jobless claims we also have a PPI reading so this is the producer side of inflation and this is our inflation gauge for the producer side so this is the producer price index we have core PPI PPI year over year core PPI year over year also have the US retail sales retail sales minus autos and business inventory so this will probably a pretty big day as well probably won't move as much as the CPI but the PPI does have a chance to move us pretty well so two inflation readings back to back so this week can definitely be a big mover and the only thing that sucks about that it's coming out Wednesday is that Monday and Tuesday it could be a little choppy I mean you could see some you know pre-run-ups or some front running up into the data but we'll have to see there's really no way to speculate on that until we you know look at the technicals and see how the indexes are looking and then Friday US import prices Empire State manufacturing survey consumer sentiment so consumer sentiment always the most important on Friday so I'd really just pay attention to that Empire State manufacturing survey could move but it depends on how extreme the reading is I've only seen and moved the market pretty big maybe once or twice you know in the last year or two and then consumer sentiments usually I mean it can get pretty volatile and the thing about it is that it's mid-session so it's 30 minutes after the bell rings it's not pre-market so you will see that mid-session volatility 30 minutes after the bell rings though that's for the data this week most important CPI second most important PPI third most important probably gonna be consumer sentiment or maybe retail sales but yep that's our data this week and then for seasonality we're looking at Monday before September triple witching NASDAQ down 14 of the last 23 so NASDAQ has been down 14 of the last 23 years but you can see that we do have a bull icon for this day we got the Dow at 57.1 S&P as 61.9 NASDAQ at 57.1 and these are probabilities for the chance of the market rising so looks like the S&P has the highest probability of rising that day on Tuesday we do have another bull icon as you see here so historically bullish day just like Monday but Tuesday you can see we have another bull icon similar to Monday this time we have Dow at 71.4 S&P as 71.4 NASDAQ at 61.9 so we have higher probabilities this day on Tuesday then Wednesday another bull icon so we got three bull icons in a row which is showing that you know there's three historically bullish days in a row expiration week 2001 Dow lost 1370 points so 1370 points and you can see the probabilities we got Dow at 66.7 S&P as 71.4 NASDAQ at 61.9 and Thursday all neutral nothing crazy you can see the Dow in the 50s S&P in the 50s NASDAQ a little bit higher in the 60s and then Friday is a triple witching day so you have multiple securities expiring on this day looks like Dow up 11 of last 18 down 7 of last 10 and you got the Dow at 61.9 S&P at 57.1 NASDAQ low at 42.9 so it looks like Monday Tuesday and Wednesday all historically bullish so we'll have to see how that goes this is honestly the last week historically where it kind of runs up and then after this week for the 16th and so on so forth is when the market starts you know getting a little bit more bearish historically I showed you the season ax chart after the 16th is when it's you know starts getting pretty pretty hefty to the downside historically I don't have the season ax chart this week because season ax did close down the S&P for free users again and I don't have a subscription with them so we'll have to wait until they open that back up I just don't use seasonality that much so I think it's pointless for me to get a subscription for it so we're just looking at the Almanac here and you can go get one of these on Amazon every year they sell probably for like 30 or 40 bucks and it just gives you a calendar just like this gives you historically bullish days historically bearish days whatever you want plus like little quotes little fun facts and plenty of more charts and data within it it's not even just a calendar there's just a bunch of stuff in it so go check that out look up stock Almanac there should be a new one coming out this year probably before Christmas or something they usually get the new addition towards the end of the year so and now let's go ahead and get into our individual tickers we're starting out with LUVs this is Southwest Airlines had a pretty bad week last week this week we came to close down six percent you can see it's negative six point oh two percent airlines just had a pretty bad week overall but now LUV here is pulling into a pretty big drop-based rally demand zone on the one week time frame so this is a higher time frame setup so you might want to be a little bit more patient with this one if you're going to swing trade it you're definitely want to buy 30 to 60 days out just be safe because any drawdown and since you're kind of going counter-trend it's been in a downtrend for a couple weeks now you do want to buy time on it in case there is more drawdown risk there's really no way to know if there's going to be more drawdown risk you just have to take that safety precaution buy some time on it be a little patient because it may dip into demand just a little bit more before trying to bounce but we could see a nice little pop on Monday it just depends on how the future is opened up other you know the US dollar is going hopefully the US dollar will start falling back under some serious levels because it broke out last week and it made the markets a little bit shaky so LUV here I'm looking at calls obviously since we're pulling into this big demand zone first price target probably looking at this little 3087 and if we go to the daily chart it'll make a little bit more sense you can see this 3087 right here was a previous just a short-term bounce zone and it actually back tested off this wick right here on this daily bar you see is actually up there and it rejected all the way down here closed down here if you know to read candles this is your high this is your clothes this is your open this is your low so just want to point that out this big wick was actually off this 3087 which is also this little previous support here so that probably be the short-term price target but this is a one week demand zone so it could you know dip just a little bit lower you want to be a little bit more patient with one week supply and demand zones just because they're on higher time frames and they're a little bit wider than they would on a just a regular one-day base candle for a one-day demand zone this is way wider than it you know normally would be so you just gotta give a little bit more room sometimes you can see Friday's clothes actually pretty good I mean it didn't close weak or anything and almost looks like you know you do have some buyers that showed up down here and pushed it up you know into the end of the session it's not quite a bullish hammer but it's got you know that lower shadow wick which means there is just a little bit of by pressure and it could be given a signal that it could pop up here so we'll have to see if you're day trading you're just gonna need to make your risk off point you know a little bit tighter you're probably gonna have to do that on an intraday basis rather than using you know one-day levels as your stop loss or risk off level so you got two different ways to look at it swing trading you know you can use the levels a little bit more on the higher time frames and then you know day trading you just got to adjust as price is moving even almost as premiums are moving because if you're day trading you're likely doing the shorter term contracts you might just have to use premium price and also just short term levels intraday rather than using these that we look at so that's for LUV looking at calls hopefully you can get a bounce off this demand zone let's look at this slow stochastic real quick it looks like it's trying to curl up it's not confirmed yet so this is actually still negative if this can curl up they could probably pop up into this 9 EMA you could see it's actually resistance right here prior also resistance over here so this 9 EMA is a pretty good short term price target if you're not gonna use this 3087 but this 3087 is a pretty good one as well but I definitely you know use the one-day moving averages they work really good as you see right here pretty good resistance off the 9 EMA so just go ahead and add that to your chart you can use a 21 I'd recommend using the 9 the 21 the 50 and the 200 and you can use those as price targets if you don't have any clear levels just regular price levels use the moving averages as price targets that's for LUV looking at calls all right next we're going into another higher time frame set up you can see I'm actually looking at the one month bars on this one each of these bars is one month worth of data and the reason why I have to do that is because this support goes all the way down to 2008 in November and also 2009 in March this big 21 28 level we're looking at WBA Walgreens by the way I didn't mention the name before sorry about that it's pretty well-known name a lot of people pick up their you know prescriptions from Walgreens just been a company forever I feel like they're not gonna be going anywhere obviously they do have some competition coming up with Amazon if they're gonna start selling you know prescription drugs online that does give CVS and Walgreens both a little bit of a disadvantage and some competition if people are just gonna be ordering their prescription pills online and I feel like that's kind of playing a role along with just crappy CEO and lots of just negative press releases from Wall Street media so this thing's just been getting slammed so this is a contrarian trade arguably it could just be a long-term by shares and forget about a type of trade they do have a 8.73% dividend pretty good yield maybe a little bit on the higher side and with higher you know dividend yields that does kind of bring in a little bit more risk but this is a pretty good support all the way from 2008 all the way from 2009 so I'm looking for a bounce on this obviously with a monthly bar closed like this it could just dip a little bit lower before trying to bounce and you might want to wait for something to form here first before you know trying to buy the knife you can see the one week right here just four straight weeks of selling as well so this one we bar should close down you know six percent as well just like L. U. V. L. U. V. last bar closed down six percent this is also down six percent from last week though they're shedding a lot of market cap that just been getting slammed but just watch this 21 28 level I showed you all the way from 2009 we can even name it 2009 support send it over to the right here everybody know what it is and you won't forget and I'm guessing 20 flat is also going to be a psychological level just because it's an even number and so easy easy psychological level to remember so people are definitely probably going to be looking at 20 as a risk off area as well so if you're going to try to trade this maybe just be careful under 20 if it keep by here and it dips under 20 might be a good idea to you know start taking off some risk or just be careful make sure watching it closely because under 20 you know it could start flushing pretty hard most importantly watch this 21 28 the 2009 support because we're coming right up to it on the one day you can see we have to go just a little bit lower to tap it and it looks like a may fit for some reason it doesn't gap up or something on Monday it's probably gonna try to dip a little bit lower so maybe you could be a little bit more patient with this one if you're buying shares for the long term it doesn't really matter where you buy it if you're gonna end up dollar cost averaging this and you buy it let's say once a month and you're buying on red days or really buying on green days as well you could buy wherever dollar cost averaging is gonna kind of level out your average and maybe to where it doesn't really matter where you buy because you're buying once a month and it's if you're buying the same quantity gonna give you a pretty solid average since you've been adding in all different types of places so I'd recommend doing some research on dollar cost averaging before trying that strategy but it's definitely worth a look so I'll be looking at causing this as well I would be willing to go 30 to 60 days out I'm not sure about day trades on this one just because I mean it's pretty oversold and I've never really seen the options on this one I'm not sure how the options chain looks I'm not sure if it's likely I don't know if there's a lot of volume and open interest and you want to see higher volume and open interest if you're gonna day trade options makes it easier to get out the spreads aren't as wide and you know you won't get shafted by the market maker so make sure you're checking that if you're gonna day trade this but if you're going to day trade this definitely wait for some type of reversal signal because this is still in a free fall but if you're swing trading really close to support this general area just watch for a bounce WBA here looking at long shares especially for the dividend like I showed you but also willing to get some calls as well 30 to 60 days out and like I said if you're gonna day trade wait for a better signal though it's for WBA looking at calls looking at long shares alright next we're going into Mara so this is a crypto play this is gonna move with Bitcoin it's gonna move with Ether and you can see we're pulling into a big drop base rally demand zone just like I showed you on L. U. V. just your classic drop base rally and this is this is a big rally bar so I'm guessing this demand zone probably pretty good considering the imbalance on this one daily bar right here not only that we do have a test one test two and this would be test three for the trend line if you moved it over to this right here it'd be considered a test for as well but I have it from this week low to this week low and that's putting our trend line all the way over here so this could just be a test three but you know we'll say it's either a test three or test four doesn't really matter either way it's testing the trend line you'll have a really nice demand zone like I said this imbalance right here this one day bar is huge so I'm guessing something happened down here lots of institutions maybe added and there's a great run up here went up almost 30% so this is a huge buy imbalance so we'll definitely watch this zone you can see it already kind of reacted to it just a little bit ran up into the close a little bit but still closed down you know almost 12% so did close very weak and you got to be careful with that especially with the typical you know Friday down Friday down Monday or up Friday up Monday you know that Friday sentiment can continue into Monday and it's pretty common it's a very common pattern and you'll see it a lot but on the spy or Kiki Q or really any of the indexes so you want to be careful with that but either way really nice demand zone here also really nice trend line so I'm looking at calls on this risk off is super obvious on this one it's just going to be under demand zone low probably about 1015 or so or just a one-day close under the trend line so make sure you draw this trend line make sure you draw this demand zone if you're watching if you're newer just go ahead and add it if you don't know how to draw supply and demand zones definitely go watch my crash course on it I posted a free crash course on it just go to our YouTube and you'll find it or it's in the discord to search up supply slash demand you'll probably find it so that's for tomorrow looking at calls obviously you want to see a nice little bit in crypto I don't really care to track crypto or trade or anything but this is a really nice demand zone and you got the trend line so I'm hoping we can see a little bounce on this at least and make a good day trade not sure about swinging crypto overnight it trades 24-7 makes big gap ups and downs so you got to be careful with it if you did obviously you want to buy time on it if you're going to hold anything overnight if you have 30 days at least on your side you know draw down risk isn't as bad because low 30 30 days to two weeks is when the theta starts getting bad and your time decay starts rapidly increasing so you want to be careful so that 30 plus days is a good threshold to go by so that's for tomorrow looking for upside looking for calls maybe swings we'll have to see all right next we're going into the indexes this is my favorite part of the videos that we do because indexes obviously have huge influence on how individual stocks move as well so we want to be able to read the indexes and other things in order to see how individual stocks are going to move as well everything is tied together so last week we're focused on this one week supply zone I'll zoom out to the one week real quick I mentioned this was a rally based drop zone I mentioned is a pretty good one obviously this is a pretty heavy sale imbalance on the one week the only thing I was surprised with is that we actually rejected this right away I was expecting to go into a little bit more consolidation last week or at least pull into the moving averages and we did pull into the moving averages but we ended up breaking some of them you can see we broke below the 9 and 21 I mentioned we could look at dip buys if it got down to the 9 and 21 combo or this back test level I said the same for QQQ you want to see you know look for upside at the back test level you didn't want to look at it up here because QQQ was also at supply so we got that part right I was just kind of expecting it to stay a little bit more consolidated and it broke down pretty well within three days I mean we didn't sell off too heavy maybe about 1% but it did react to the supply that we mentioned so I definitely know it's a little bit more cautious trading long up here just because the supply was so close and we're a little bit overextended over the moving averages and as I mentioned before if you get too overextended from the moving averages eventually it's going to come back up you know kind of like a mean regression it did it down here got very oversold below the moving averages came back to them got overextended over the moving averages came back down to them it's just all about reading the market and how you know extreme it's moving and a move like this down here this is an extreme and a move like this up here this is an extreme this is a pretty big gap between price and the 9 EMA so likely you know if it gets extended like that there's a good chance it's going to fill back down fill your you know your in-balance candles like this big buy in-balance candle was you know pretty destined to get filled eventually you just got to figure out when it's going to do that so for this week we actually don't really have anything crazy again this week we're mid-range like I said last week or you know in between this resistance and this low so this is all mid-range it's not really near support it's not really near resistance right so we may have to go off the moving averages you can see we have the light blue 50 EMA bounced really nicely off of it right here also pulled into your 9 and 21 combo right here and you can see it kind of whipped off of that actually so it reacted to the 9 and 21 on Friday on the one day just a tad bit and close under it in order for this to break it would really need to get under the one day 50 EMA it's going to be under your light blue dots and in order to you know go higher or kind of go back within the uptrend you're going to need to start closing back over your 9 and 21 combo so that's kind of what we're working with this week and we also need to get back over that 4458 back test level which is this level right here if I removed the moving averages you can see it a little bit clearer this is the big back test level it kind of bounced off it right here nothing crazy and then open below at the next day and once we popped over it on Friday it was actually pretty good upside I could show you so once we got over the 4458 right here really big body imbalance and then it just kind of you know stalled out and we had a pretty choppy and crappy day on Friday the rest of the day was just awful the price action sucked there's a bunch of wicks yeah wicks wicks wicks wicks and just total randomness lots of price pinning on Friday likely due to options expiration so this 4458 it's going to be important focusing on we need to get back over that as well like I said the moving averages is going to kind of be a waiting game we want to see the one day closing either over the 9 and 21 combo to get us back higher or we want to start seeing it close under the one day 50 EMA the light blue dots in order to break structure and go lower so you may need to wait for a signal on that before trying anything on the spy or the spx if you want to be sure and if you want if you're more of like a trend trader and you know you want to be able to guess less and just kind of go with the flow you're going to wait for that one day close over that or the one day close under the 50 EMA you can see we're trading in between them so that's why you want to wait and not only that like I said we closed just briefly under the 4458 we want to get back over that so you got mixed signals here you know you're still holding your 50 but you're under your 9 and 21 that's why you want to wait for him you know to get over one of them you got slow stochastic here negative so that's not really good we want to see that cross back up if you want to see the market go higher obviously escalators aren't law and there's nothing to just abide by but it's an extra piece of you know momentum that you can read and you can see once we got a crossover over here momentum is great and once we got the negative crossover right here on Tuesday is when we had that two day little sell off so the crossovers work pretty good obviously you can get false signals like you get a couple right here but once you get a really nice one it can definitely help you read the market just a little bit better but you want to pair it with everything else like your levels your moving averages supply and demand zones everything don't just use it by itself so this for spx just want to see one day close over the 921 combo your green and yellow or you want to see one day close under this for a signal just kind of in between need to wait for that signal all right next we're going into qqq so last week we were focused on the supply zone so last Friday I'd already got an an initial rejection off of the supply zone so we knew for a fact that is somewhat you know responded to this it also filled this little gap that it had right here you can see the gap ended right here and it started up here so it basically filled at least halfway maybe not the craziest gap or anything but it did fill up and run into that supply and once the gap kind of closes and it's been filled a little bit and it runs into supply there's a good chance it's going to go lower so I think I mentioned qqq looked a little bit better for downside because it actually tapped the zone and I mentioned if it pulled back into the 372 85 this little area right here is where you could try to look to buy the dip and if we go down to 15 minute here and let's look at once it pulled into the 372 85 look at this really nice bounce off that on the 15 minute so this made a really nice day trade and all you have to do is just mark that back test level and pay attention to it and that's why we cover them in these videos because we we just try to cover the most important inflection points we want to look for the levels that are more extreme or prices reacted to the most extreme 372 85 was an extreme you know previously is a big sale and bounce candle and you can see once we pulled in it right here nice little dead cap bounce off of it and then you can see once we got under it pretty heavy gap down and then once we got back over it right here big buy in bounce candle ran up into you know this little Wednesday resistance and kind of chopped around so you can see the extremes you got a pretty big bounce pretty big pop over it another big bounce off it right here so that's why you want to mark these one day levels and you want to pay attention to the most extremes and this candle right here was extreme and this was the high of the candle that's why this 372 85 is so important so this was a little bit different we're not above the 372 85 we're actually closed just a little bit under it we need to see a pop back over it in order for me to feel like it can run back up why the moving averages here see how those are looking we're actually over the 21 here just briefly under the 9 so the 9 and 21 combo is holding it went under right here briefly and ended up closing right here and then it popped the next day so the 9 21 combo is working pretty good holding up as it should for an uptrend but we do need to see it over that 372 85 first if it starts getting back over that on the shorter term time frames you go look for upside and then if we get a one day close back over that even better because if there's a one day close that's going to be over the nine which is your green it's going to be over your 21 and it's going to be over the 372 85 so that give you a good probabilities to go back up towards supply but if we start staying under this 372 85 and start closing under the you know one day 21 EMA obviously that can take you down to your 50 and also this little demand zone right here get rid of these real quick this is a little rally based rally demand zone and that's going to be from august 29th so just a little bit ago this is a huge buy imbalance candle though just from filling up this sale imbalance candle but big big buy imbalance nasdaq was up 2.18% that day so you definitely want to pay attention to this if price can get down here definitely start looking to scoop up you know look for calls or look for bounces at this area that's going to be right at let's call it 367 you can just call it 367 flat and you could even mark that if you want if you don't want to draw the demands you know just draw a line at 367 flat setting alert wait for it to get down there i look for a balance because it's definitely possible if we got down there of course i would definitely way rather buy down here at demand then you know try to guess in between this area but like i said if it can get over the 372 85 get over that and have a one day close over that level i'll feel really good about some more upside at least you know for this week because after this week is when the seasonality starts getting a little bit weaker and it's usually october towards the beginning of october when you know the market historically will start rallying you can find some good discounts you'll see that broad pretty much that broad market rally on a lot of things so for qqq here it's going to be the waiting game just like the s&p you want to see that move over 372 85 you want to see a close over it tolling the 9 and 21 combo good if it starts closing under the 21 which is the yellow not a good sign and probably start heading back down to your demand or the light blues right here which is the 50 EMA so just wait for that signal over 372 85 and you could look for some upside slow stochastic negative still so that could be another good signal to wait for if you want to wait for that to cross positive that's always a good sign it can kind of help you hold your trades a little bit because you know that the momentum is positive at least on the short term all right next we're going into iwm so last week was much much more clean cut and the reason for that is because we had that 189 24 level marked let me get rid of these moving averages so we had this 189 24 level marked and then we also had this supply that we were focused on the one thing we wanted to see was either iwm gave over 192 or get back under 189 24 mentioned if we can get under 189 24 that you'd have a pretty good chance to start shorting and there could be a flush and they would try to make that shoulder that we've been looking for the past couple weeks i was looking for it to get made at the 189 but it got just a little bit over that but either way i still made that second shoulder finally now if the head and shoulders does want to play out it's obviously going to break the neckline and the neckline is kind of hard to figure out what it is here it might be under like 180 or so just because it kind of like trends a little bit right here if you really wanted to find the neckline i'd probably just go with 180 flat that's the most clear cut way to do it you do have these demand zones as well if you wanted to wait for it to get under 178 even that could confirm the head and shoulders and that that could go lower but the head and shoulders is not confirmed until it breaks the neckline that's just a heads up so the fact that this shoulder was made you got the head and this shoulder was made it's only speculation that you know this could go lower because your head and shoulders pattern like i said is not confirmed until it breaks the neckline and the neckline is going to be like 180 you know maybe 170 i would probably bet on 180 if i can get under 180 that's definitely a good chance it's going to just flush the demands and it's going to go lower likely to you know this 170 area 169s and that's going to be the 2023 lows from march so i hope that makes sense we had the 189-24 just from over here we wanted to see get under that before trying to go short obviously we could have just speculated inside the supply and expected it to reject but you don't really know there's no way to really know until it actually breaks the level and once they got under the 189-24 this daily came it was huge this was down two percent that day and then it was just straight selling the rest of the week so the supply worked out really good and the 189-24 flush worked out really good but for this week we now made it back down to the demand where previously we were looking for bounces and we got it now we're back to that same zone so naturally since we're at demand here i'm going to have to assume that it might try to hold up here whether it's short term whether it's medium term i have to assume that this little area right here can bounce whether it's going to be right here at the 184s or whether it's going to be you know more towards the demand zone low at the 180s or the 181s this is a demand zone it's a pretty strong one it's proved that from this little bounce right here this is a nice little rally we're back to that same spot so iWM this week i'm probably just going to look for a bounce i'm not sure if it'll run back up to the 189 though just because it already made the shoulder so i feel like people are going to be a little bit more skeptical now that the second shoulder is made that could bring some pressure and it may be a little bit harder to bounce but i do feel like you know this area it's going to make an attempt at least because this demand zone is pretty good obviously it already had you know one decent bounce but you know the second bounce can be just as good as well it just depends on sentiment you definitely don't want to go short right here if you want to just a summary of what we're talking about for this week i definitely wouldn't look at it short right here just because you have really nice demand it's a drop base rally demand zone and like i said bounce pretty nice prior already rejected super hard already broke the 189 24 the 1809 should have been your entry if you wanted to go short now you're going to want to wait for the neck line to break or you can start looking at you know some short term bounces here for day trades at least so that's for iWM be careful at this demand zone if you're short i'm personally going to be looking for a potential bounce of this area even a fish's short term all right next we're going into the VIX which made it into our video title last week i believe it was title VIX and DXY at major technical levels or something like that forgot what i named it and that ended up being the case so VIX pulled into the 13 flats in the 1273 area i mentioned you know you don't want to look for the exact levels all the time i've mentioned that in multiple videos so i think i mentioned last week you just want to pay attention to the 13 flat area and it actually gapped up monday before it even gave you a chance to blink so it gapped up seven percent and closed at about 14 14 flat but the thing is even though it ran up here you can see that the VIX had lots of wicks lots of rejections and no really major close back over a level so you got to close here on monday 14 you got to close here at 1440s and then you have a close here at 1440s again so we never got actual close over the 1460 mark which is these lows right here and we never got to close over 1553 either which is the level we've been focused on for weeks this is probably the most major level to get over once it gets back over that volatility has proved to increase pretty substantially on the short-term basis it'll ramp up very fast and also it'll ramp down very fast as well once it gets below that and you can see once we tap the 1553 really big rejection candle and then it started heading back to the lows so we closed on friday this friday just a little bit higher than last friday closed at lower 13s last friday closed at 1380s this week or this friday so since it rejected that 1553 and it's back under this 2021 low i kind of have to assume that it might just go back to the 13 flat or the 1273 area we'll just look at 13 flat to 1273 as the zone to look for i just wouldn't be biased i wouldn't wait for the exact 1273 to hit look for the 13s as well like the lower 13 and then you know stretch it down a little bit to 1273 as well just that you know that zone in general should be looked at and it proved that because it closed there on friday and literally gapped up you know the next trading session on monday seven percent so i'd expect volatility to have back to the 13s or so just because you got a big rejection at the 15s and just kind of play it by ear once it gets down to the 13s again i would definitely look for it to either hold up maybe repeat what it did prior or start looking for that break under the 1273 but your 1273 is your maximum low so it absolutely have to break under that volatility to go you know much lower once it gets under that or if it does ever get under that the market can definitely scream a lot higher this 1273 is huge it's your double bottom support even if it can get under 13s that would be great as well so it's pretty cool to see that it you know ended up reacting to 13 flat and you know this general low now i feel like it's just going to head back down to it again i mean there's really no signals here indicating that volatility is going to go higher you got a rejection off the 1553 we've been looking at for weeks you got you know clothes back under this 2021 low so it looks like it's just going to fill back down again do the same thing just head back to 13 flat so i just look for that level and then make sure you're paying attention make sure if you see it's bouncing aggressively off of that 13 flat or the 1273s it's likely volatility is going to try to bounce higher and you know the market will pull back on the short term but it's kind of got to play by ear respond you know to real-time price action and react accordingly all right and last but not least we're going into the dx y's this is the us dollar i think we closed right here last friday this is friday september 1st and we were actually under the 10440s and also under the 10470 so this is your 10470 level this is your 10440s rejection level and we ended up actually breaking over both of those if i show you this crazy back test here from friday this is the 10470s this is why you want to mark these levels if you're day trading and using the dx y and the vix as day trading signals and you want to see how the market's reacting on the short term you want to be marking these one day levels look at how this reacted to 10470s huge huge back test to bounce and this actually brought the market a little bit lower on friday so if you would have saw that this was holding it'd be a little bit more skeptical to go long and i was very skeptical friday actually i think i might have done like one or two scalps that day on futures but i didn't do any options that day just the the dollar and the yields they just were kind of sketching me out so i just kind of played it cool on friday the the price action really wasn't my favorite either but definitely mark these one day levels that we go over in every single video because they're pretty important especially if you're day trading because they do react to that on the short term and you can see the big wick from friday right there this one right here that was that same thing we just looked at that big bounce off the back test and that was that 10470 that we have marked right here so what we need if you want to see the market go higher you want to see more bullish confidence you want to see the dollar keep selling off like this it's down quarter percent really good so this is down 0.25 which is great that could send the futures higher and also send the market higher tomorrow if we stay under it but we do need to see it getting under both of these so you want to see it under the 10470s and we want to see it under the 10440s the reason why you want to see under the 10440s as well because this is a pretty big imbalance area or rejection area whatever you want to call it and that's from this wick high right here you want to see it under that 10440s and under the 10470s that i just showed you if it can't do that obviously this is a short-term support so this could hold just like this and it can march higher so that's why we needed to get under that so kind of assume that this is going to hold until you see it closing under those if you can start seeing closing under those you could definitely expect it to feel that you know buy and bounce back down and probably head back down to the 103s otherwise i showed you what you know what it did to 10470 on friday it could do that same exact thing so we needed to close under that look at 10470s as support right now and kind of assume that this can hold until you know until it proves you otherwise i feel like we can get a nice little bounce in the market i'm hoping so obviously if it's telling me otherwise i'll you know be willing to go short or you know look at puts or you know not look at these calls or longs or anything but i'm hoping we can get under that 10470s see more aggressive selling and then we can feel good about the market and then vicks also kind of flashing the volatility will go a little bit lower at least to the 13 flat mark hopefully to 1273 overall which is that low similar to last week definitely has some major technical levels right now vicks not so much dxy is at a more technical level this is a big back test area so we want to see either balancing from here and holding up that would be bearish for the market if it starts holding up and bouncing from here it's going to take the market lower more than likely if we can start getting some major closes one day candle closes under this that would be great that would definitely send the market higher i believe the reason why you want to see one day closes is because these one hour bars or even if you used a four hour bar the hourlies they can kind of fake out right you got a one hour close under it right here ended up holding and bouncing you got a one hour close under it right here ended up holding and bouncing so you want to see the one day closes the one day closes kind of give the best signal like you got a one day breakout right here that sent it up for a couple days bring it out you know one day break down and get a close that could send it lower and do the opposite and then you can see the 103s down here every close is holding it it's holding over it so that's how you kind of determine if there's strength at a level if it's closing above it or below it that's going to kind of prove your strength of the level so that's why you want to see the one day closes over or under and that will determine your strength or weakness so it's a video guys hope you guys enjoyed make sure you like comment and subscribe to our x-rays youtube channel i'm a way to get this chopped up edited and sent out i love you guys and i'm out