 Welcome again to the CMT markets weekly charting analysis webinar with myself Jasper Lawler. We have the risk warning on the screen. Let's quickly get through that and then we'll move on with the webinar itself. Okay. So I'm going to start the webinar off with just a quick summary of some of the economic events that are happening this week. What I did want to also kind of touch on is just, you know, we call this the weekly charting analysis webinar, so obviously a heavy emphasis on the charts and I'm charted in technical analysis and so I come at the economic calendar with a bit of a kind of technical analysis bent. Now there are different ways of trading the news. My particular interpretation on how to best use the news is just that, you know, I studied economics, but I'm not an economist by profession. I suspect most of you listening to the webinar are not economists by profession. And to be quite honest, even if you were, economists mostly get these forecasts for these economic numbers wrong. So it's very difficult to know what the direction of the number is going to be and be able to use that forecast of the economic number to correctly predict the resulting currency move. I mean it's not unusual at all for a number to be positive and the currency to react badly. Now I know that sounds a bit complicated and you sort of might think, well, why even look at the economic numbers? My take on it is that, you know, we're looking at the charts and we're looking at some of the key levels and patterns within the chart, the key trends as we see them. And it's these economic news events that are triggering whether a certain level holds or whether a certain level breaks. So they are important. We need to be aware of when they're happening to get a better idea of when some of these price breaks and price holds may take place. And so, you know, we can look at the forecasts and, you know, we can see what the results of these news releases are and, you know, and help us determine whether our initial trade idea is likely to be right or wrong based on what happens afterwards. Our trade ideas, you know, as we look at them in these webinars are still typically, you know, based on a chart, but, you know, when you're looking at these economic news, you're aware of when they are just to help make that actual breakout happen as I said. So with that in mind, not a busting lot happening today, a bit of a focus on Fed speakers. So we had Janet Yellen speaking last week and we had a couple of doves speaking today. Evan's being the most notable one, William's being another in terms of Fed speakers. Tomorrow, I would say probably the primary determining driver of the US dollar would be the consumer confidence. It's proven a bit of a difficult indicator in terms of predicting retail sales, arguably quite useless, but nonetheless, the market does react from it. The US is a consumption based economy, so it's important to look at that. We're expecting a fairly substantial drop. The last print was 101.5, now we're looking at 96.2, so that would be dollar negative. The number in itself, we're going to look at the charts in a bit to decide how negative the reaction is likely to be given the current situation in these different pairs. Not a lot going on in Europe. Probably the most important being the German preliminary consumer price index. So we've got Carney speaking as well on Tuesday, so that'd be important for the pound, perhaps for the FTSE, for the UK 100. And then we have German retail sales on Wednesday, expecting a bit of a slide there. German unemployment, pretty consistently good. German unemployment, the data not probably going to be a massive drive of the Europe. And then on Wednesday later on, we have the final GDP number for the UK. It's expected to remain the same at 0.7% in Q2. And then probably one of the more important prints on the day will be the Eurozone CPI data, which is expected to drop down to zero year over year. Core to remain flat at 0.9%. That's to be expected, the overall price has plummeted in the last couple of months. We've got Yellen speaking again on Wednesday. We've got the ADP data. ADP is obviously the first precursor to the non-farm payrolls. And keep in mind, of course, that we've got our special non-farm payrolls webinar hosted by Michael Houston. So if you are trading in and around the event, may as well log into the webinar and get a bit of extra insight there from Michael and also from Colin, I believe. Then certainly want to watch out for in the early hours of Thursday is the Chinese manufacturing PMI. China has been a primary concern recently. And these PMI prints have been increasingly negative. This one is the official data is expected to remain flat. The one done by Kiteson is expected to rise slightly to 47.2 from 47.0, but still in contraction territory. And on Thursday, we've got UK PMI. We've got US manufacturing along with most Eurozone countries later on the ISM manufacturing PMI from the US. That one's expected to slip back. The kind of general story here is that, you know, I was initially talking about the oil prices being a boon to consumers. You're seeing a bit of a lagged effect there. And the more the more primary effect is that it's hitting the oil sector and that part of the manufacturing base in the US. So that's why we're seeing manufacturing surveys starting to come off a bit. And some of the other manufacturing data from US after the dollar negative. But it's all largely going to be a buildup to the NFP result. Obviously, the Fed remained on hold in September. So we're looking at this NFP data to get a better gauge on whether they're likely to lift off in any of the forthcoming months. As you probably know, October and November not too likely. It's the December meeting where they have a press conference that would be the likely timing date. Given that Janet Yellen recently said that most FOMC members are still looking at a 2015 rate hike. So end of the year, like I said. So what December is the end of the year? So, you know, that could happen. But it depends on data. I would honestly say that probably doesn't largely depend on this NFP data. But every little bit counts. And, you know, we'll likely see some dollar moves flying around. Expected, you know, last month was quite a big drop beneath 200,000 down to 173 for non-farm payrolls. The consensus forecast on an economist now is 202,000. So back above 200,000. You know, I think that, you know, if it came in a long consensus, that would probably be dollar positive. Obviously, anything above consensus you'd assume that would be positive for the dollar. Okay. Got that all out of the way. Let's have a look at some of the charts here. So I think we're going to start just with in the UK. I've got some of the, you can see it's a sea of red today. One of the most noticeable insane examples is Glencore. That was down as much as 27% just today. So my condolences to any of you who hold any Glencore stock. I hope you, you know, if you follow along these charting webinars, you would have known to cut your losses a long time ago in Glencore. But nonetheless, the whole mining sector getting pretty smashed. It's down to the Anglo-American down 7%. All of these mining names in trouble. Shell cannot dry in a drilling project. So BP and Shell down pretty heavily. So the put see as a result is down. The UK 100 down wasn't in the cash market down over 1%. You know, as we trade it in our different opening times, that's around, you know, just under 1%. So, you know, these global indices are all looking fairly similar. What you'll see is that the, I would say the order of weakness is that the Germany 30 looks the weakest. The UK 100 looks the sort of in the middle. And the US 30 probably the strongest. And I'm just basing that on the recent trading range. Now, I've just drawn this level in here based on this, you know, this little retracement peak, which is seen better on the four hour chart as a possible area of resistance. Because I'm still sort of seeing this break of this low, which as I mentioned hasn't actually broken in the US 30. This break here is generally negative for the UK 100. And I would be expecting the market to roll over before this line and before this peak. Obviously, back in and above this peak, you know, this has proved to be a false break. And then we've got another break to deal with on the upside. So that's possible. You know, this could turn into something akin to a double bottom. It actually would be a pretty much a double bottom in the Germany 30 was in a second. But just based on the longer term trend, you know, it's not the greatest trading conditions at the moment. It's pretty choppy. But you know, I'm looking at this. I'm defaulting to assuming that this big drop is now consolidating before another big drop. That's the way I'm looking at it. A break of these highs tells me I'm wrong and I'll be looking the other way. Skipping across to the Germany 30, as I mentioned, looks very similar. But, you know, we actually dropped right down to that low. August 24th low is the one that we're dealing with in most of the equity markets. All these moves have been pretty correlated, as we've mentioned before, because of the sort of global concerns about what's happening in China, et cetera. So it counts pretty nicely off this low. Back here a couple of times. It hasn't come right down to this December low. It certainly could push down there again and get a little rebound off that. But I suspect now, after these couple of balances, if we were to push back below these 9,300 area, that would be looking pretty negative for the Germany 30. It was difficult to kind of forecast what, you know, to see patterns before they happen. But the way I'm looking at this at the moment is there's a drop, you know, a pullback and, you know, kind of the beginnings of a rising trend line through here. And that got broken. We're back down at the lows. So this could be a double bottom. But at the moment I'm looking at the fact that we got oversold and we're coming back off the oversold area for people looking to to fell back into the drop again, and assuming that we're going to drop back down through these lows. Wouldn't necessarily want to be going short just yet because we have had a bit of a reaction off the low and we are pretty down far from that peak that we had earlier on the 9th of September. So a bit of a week following through from this pattern so far. I could get another couple of jabs down here and we'll get a better picture as to whether we're actually able to form a base. One thing I've mentioned here in the chart forum is we've not actually gotten to an oversold position yet. So I don't necessarily construe that as a positive. I'm looking at it as the idea that maybe not enough people will be encouraged to buy in because it's not oversold yet. So that could mean there's more downside to go. Looking across to the US 30, there's the same range, same sort of false break up near the top and the resulting drop. But we have recovered off the base of the range. This was Thursday's move in and around the comments from Janet Yellen. But if you didn't catch those, after failing to lift rates at the last meeting, Yellen then came out saying that they are still looking for a rate like this year. That was the crux of it. So that's been kind of supportive because maybe the Fed are not so scared about global growth. So we're holding this 16,000 level on the US 30 at the moment. But I think you've just got to, even if you're trading short term, you've got to just keep in mind the fact that we're really between these 16,000 as the daily support. With I would argue probably the more significant level being the 16,700 level with these peaks and this being the false break. So break down below 16,000, and naturally you'd assume we're heading back down towards firstly the 15,000 to 17,000 kind of area, but ideally back down to this level in the 15,000, 3,000, 40,000 hot vicinity. And again, similar to the DAX, we had a kind of rising trend line and a break stuttering around at the previous level but then assuming a continuation of the trend. Over to the commodities now. Gold was faring a bit better, it was holding up early on but it's getting a bit of a beat down now. Largely because of some dollar strength but also because you could see that the mining companies and the metals space in general is getting pretty beaten down with silver down with 3%, copper down pretty heavily. And some of the others that are not so liquid like iron ore so down. So this is the way I'm viewing gold, kind of pulled the chart out a little bit here. This is the daily chart. This is our downsloping trend line which it looks like we've got a break from and we still could have the following day we just have a little bit of a pullback closed above the line as I have it. I basically, I know that we've had this line since and I know we've got this line here which we could kind of draw through these things and I think that's playing part of it. It's all part of the same zone. I consider this the kind of bigger, bigger play trend line and to my mind there was an inside day where people kind of, you know, paused the thought after the breakout. Today's action is quite negative for me. Today points to me towards a false breakout of the rising trend line and so we basically, you know, kind of in a nice uptrend where you get a push higher, a pullback, a push higher, a pullback to the previous peak and a push higher again which really corresponded quite nicely is what happened initially. It's what happened on Friday and then you wanted to see a move back up to the 200 day moving average but that hasn't happened. We've fallen off quite a lot. Next obvious support is the previous low but I'm sort of suspecting we're dropping back down to this rising trend line again and, yeah, feasibly lower. You know, at the end of the day we're below the 200 day moving average and the weekly trend is basically sort of sideways. We've put in a higher low which is a positive and so, you know, while above that there's still scope for an uptrend developing and a base put into gold but I suspect we're probably dropping back down towards the back down towards the 1-100 mark again I suspect. Just purely off base of today's action. Again, we could hold this low but that'd be worth watching around this low depending on your trading style whether you're looking for some sort of short-term oversold indicators or a daily pattern confirmation on the candlestick. So, you know, whatever you use to trigger your entry just have a look in and around that support. You know, maybe you buy right out of the support if that's your trading style. To me that's a significant one. If we can hold that, you know, we still want this little short-term uptrend intact and we could push back for another breakthrough that defining trend line. Over to Silver. But again, I think what's happening today is quite a negative one for Silver. We had seen some signs of bullish divergence with higher lows being put in on the RSI while the Silver price was chopping around in this range but, you know, the fact that we just really haven't managed to sustain above 15 and dropping quite substantially below it today down to sort of one-week lows suggests to me that, you know, we've got a sort of failure swing here in the RSI matching the price. Looks to me like, you know, we could still hold the rising trend line but I'm sort of seeing a sign to look like maybe we're going to break it now and that would suggest to me that we're pushing into perhaps down to 14 again and perhaps lower another six-year lows in Silver. Again, always just keep in mind where we are. The low, the 200-day moving average commodities are pretty weak so, you know, just by default your short trades are going to have better odds than your longs. Unlucky if you time it in a stronger correction your short trades, obviously those are going to go wrong but, you know, you can just generally see looking at this chart, even though it's a bit sloppy below that 200-day moving average there's better scope. There's more red bars than green bars to put it in a really simple way. We're still pretty bearish on Silver. Just taking a look at Brent this time around. They're both down similar amounts today both in a pretty similar position. What we've got here was a decent break of a declining trend line. That could have been the trigger for a move back up to the highs again you know, like a kind of pennant type break that could have been we could have been right back up there with the same kind of velocity that we saw that initial move. That hasn't happened. We fall into a sideways range and to me, that probably suggests more weakness than strength that we may get another push down to the lows again and try and base out from there perhaps because, I mean, this is a strong move and I'll be surprised if we just immediately drop through that. I mean, again, it's a bear market rally so the bear market rallies are just they are strong by nature as I'm just on short covering but to me the fact that we haven't been able to kind of push strongly out of that break of the defining trend line and just stuck in a horizontal range suggests probably we're going to break the bottom of the range and head down to the lows again and again got the support of the downtrend low to a moving average. Over to the currency market worth mentioning at this stage I've only just seen the note that can't see a chart. Was that just at the start that you were saying that when I was jabbering about economic numbers? I assume it is. I think this screen is being shared. I hope it is. Yeah, I'm assuming everyone can see the charts I'm putting up. Okay, good stuff. Switching over to currency as I mentioned. Let's go to the euro. To me at the moment the weekly chart just says more than the euro. The daily chart is a real chop fest but the weekly chart as I see this is a triangle pattern and I'm not so inclined to connect these two peaks. Firstly, it's only two peaks and you could maybe connect as low unless you tried that but to me it looks like a couple of false breaks higher from the triangle pattern. There's no real statistical edge from that. False breakouts just mean there wasn't the willingness at that time. It's not to say that we automatically can roll over the other way. It just means we go back into the range but which way we get the next break. It's really anyone's guess and so this is again down to risk management and your trading technique. This is the pattern to me that you're watching. It's just a matter of waiting for that break and trading the initial move out of it. That wouldn't have served you too well with these two or waiting for a higher close for the day or the week and trading that break out or just buying and selling in the top of the triangle. We're getting towards the end of the triangle pattern now. It's almost not a triangle anymore because we're just past two thirds of the way through. This is only so long and this pattern is going to hold out. I suspect we probably could get a move back down to the kind of what would become a horizontal range support in the sort of 108-20 kind of vicinity. Worth noting on the if we got down to the daily chart the one thing I did think was quite sort of instructive is that we have been holding that 50 level pretty well for a while, 50 level that sort of indicates typically what you deal with in an uptrend. That acted to support what we're talking about here, maybe three times I suppose and then we broke through it and now it looks like we've bounced off and we're rolling away from it. So we've got a bullish candle on Friday but that RSI would suggest that we're actually dipping down into the sort of 40 vicinity which could suggest a break about 111 level which would take us quite nicely down to 110 which would match almost this low here and the rising trend line. So a little cluster of support there which could work out but I think kind of a little bit more downside to apps from here but again it's a choppy chart. The best trade will be when we finally break out and get some defined trend and because this hasn't been going a long time what I would advocate is not quickly taking your profit because the move out of this pattern could carry quite far. Now we're getting into the end of the webinar here so what I was starting to say before I think was that if you had any extra charts you wanted me to have a look at then just send me a quick note now. Cable is interesting. So we're basically at the bottom of this trading range so this is a possible long trade, possible British opportunity where we currently sit but we have had a break through the bottom of the range it hasn't sustained but Friday was still down on the day so not a particularly strong reversal and again we're in that situation where we're not actually oversold yet on the daily chart so only so many buyers going to be coming in here and I think arguably what the stronger pattern is this trend line kind of hit four times, five times is it and then broke, came back, touched, rolled over with pretty significant dust though and I suspect that maybe we could at least drop it down to this previous low here and then maybe back down to the 150 round number which is psychologically important but also was a cluster of resistance back here in March so not a great time to go short obviously because we're right at the bottom of the range scope for going short if there's a bit of a bounce to me especially towards the 200 day moving average but who knows from here because we are in, you know, it's a pretty obvious trading range isn't it so there are going to be people buying in I just don't know how far that can carry us given the downside momentum or we've been down one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight days in a row today closed as it is so that's a bit rough for the pound over to Dolly Yen brilliant trading if you're a range trader at the moment you know, if you're just known to buy and sell at the top of this range how many times could you have done that? Eight, ten, nice range trading looks very similar to the equity markets you'll notice you know, there is a good correlation between the Dow and Dolly Yen and so yeah, it's holding this range at the moment and so buying to the bottom of the top of the range well you can and look for the direction of the breakout but it's choppy and obviously everyone's paying attention to this not to miss the Yen but equities Yen has been kind of dictating the direction of equities a little bit but I suspect they'll both eventually go the same way one way to, if you are just trading one of these if you're trading just the U.S. there to, if you're trading just Dolly Yen sometimes it can be useful to see if the other one's doing the same thing it just gives the move a bit, the breakout a bit more validity if both are acting the same way a little request here for Euro pounds yeah, so I know much more to say on this I suspect that the equities were in bearish mode and that this bearish drop off is going to get followed through but it's not to say we could still get that continuation of this move after a push higher in the example of Dolly Yen we could get up to $123 again which is that previous low which was holding a price of that before the huge drop down so we could get a push up to there before rolling over and continuing this so just pick your stronger levels for where you want to take the trade base and where you think things are heading I tend to think things are still looking fairly bearish for equities in Dolly Yen Euro pounds and yeah definitely in the last few minutes of the webinar here we've all got a little request for Aussie Dollar Two a lot of discussions are false breaks today I guess that's a part of trading but here you can see this range in Euro pounds which is brilliant it's a difficult art form in trading is being multi-disciplined I don't necessarily advocate it because your mind will just get confused if you're trying to play breakouts and you're trading off the top and bottom of the ranges sometimes you just don't know which one to go for so it's a good skill if you can trade both if you've been going for breakouts now recently has been a rubbish trading commission so if you're range trading great if you can do both well done I tend to look for the trends I look at these ranges as opportunities for the next trend but accept that there probably is going to be a couple of losses during these range trading conditions but if you are a trend trader these range conditions that you're paying to keep just make sure you're there for the breakout when it does take place that's probably worth pulling out for a long-term perspective on this we're obviously hugging that 200-day moving average so this is really do-you-don't-you territory we're also in the top of this trading range it sort of looks like the Euro in general across a few different markets has put in a bit of a base the Fed didn't move the Bank of England are waiting for the Fed to lift rates they haven't lifted rates yet inflation is almost nothing in the UK there's no real justification for raising rates except this idea of looking through the drop in oil prices but eventually the central bankers they all want to keep interest rates low and they've got their excuse at the moment with oil prices causing low inflation so I think that's getting reflected here in the fact that the Bank of England probably still isn't going to raise rates anytime soon so maybe the pound is losing some of its luster and the Euro's basing against the pound possibly basing against the dollar as well so that being the case this could well be a bull flag and looking for an upside breakout we can't be sure of that looks to me more like a continuation than a top I think we've just got time here for the Aussie dollar this has been, talking about ranges and trends this has been the one to be trading for the trend this has been great trading and you can see on my side I've put in the I'm going to catch myself out here I've actually put in the 50 FNA just in order to capture the overbought get a better idea of the overbought conditions within what is actually a faster trend when it's more choppy range conditions it's just kind of confusing for me to have that many moving averages on the screen moving average to me is helping you when there's a trend when there's not a trend you don't need it I think there could of course be a base in the Aussie being formed I think we're at a pretty long-term level aren't we if I even put out what is it a weekly chart no it's not enough we're kind of in around of course yes the 0.70 round number so there's certainly scope for the Aussie debate here but we have pretty much broken this well okay that's as far as we can but yeah that's a massive long-term rising trendline we've broken below it still got plenty of room to go potentially in terms of monthly oversold we are in oversold territory and we've already had one little false break out of the oversold so we've conform a little double bottom in RSI push back above this rising trendline back off the 0.70 level I think we're looking better for a substantial move back up to maybe even 0.8 just look how many support factors are lining up here but in short term we are down we are still down I'm looking at a tweezer top here at the trendline false break at that peak the benefit of hindsight is looking back at Australia's a lovely trade I'm not going to put up the chat for him to see if I've been pointed it before it happens but yeah for me short term still in the bound trend and so you know certainly in the bounces here in Aussie dollar but aware of the fact that we're at this a couple of potentially pretty significant support levels so if we start to see a push back above this peak again this sort of zone that we formed here and that 50 day moving average first signs that that support level could be starting to hold and we could be on to a big long trade big break out the other way so that's the end of the webinar here we've went a fair bit over time so sorry to those who already had to skip out get back from your lunch break but I hope that was useful good luck trading with us this week and we'll see you again next week thank you just for all the signing out