 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time Monday morning We got about 24 minutes to go until the starter trading your market saving themselves a bit overnight quite the sell-off on Friday coming off The hot jobs number three point five percent unemployment. You have the S&Ps We're about 100 points from where we were coming into that number 3762 is where I am on my chart at about 830 on Friday You accelerate into a price area above 3651 now Sunday night futures open last night man 7 o'clock You were down folks at 3618. Okay, so market saving itself a bit. We'll see where we open right now But 3618 you're talking about 50 points to the upside right now in terms of the acceleration Even in the last couple hours right check it out even in the last 45 minutes S&Ps up about 23 points 3666 Nasdaq 100 last night We were below 11,000 on a few occasions about 637 o'clock 7 30 as well. We're back 11,127 the Dow 29,000 481 Dow was below 29,200 last night Russell's positive by 7 we got Bitcoin 19,385 crude pulling back a little bit from where we were on Friday you accelerate from $88.89 we'll call it Friday morning up to 93 55 crude as we've seen the market pop a bit You got crude pulling back even just in the last few minutes. Look at the volatility going on That's the 905 a.m. Bar folks and we just traded down about 60 to 70 cents in the last three to four minutes alone We got action and currencies man. It is continuing goal continuing to struggle off $25. That's about 1.5% gold at 1684 Going back on a longer-term basis. That's a five-year weekly back to the lows of 2018 up to the highs of COVID August of 2020 almost made it back up to that level in March of 2022 this year 2078 was the high and you see where we are man chopping around near the bottom of that area Whether it's the lows of July of this year the lows that you spiked to back in August of last year or the lows of March of last year as well That's about 1775 to 1700. You did get as down as low as 1622 on gold Back to 1684 for the gold contract back to a short-term time frame and let's jump to notes and bonds And what do we got folks? We got lower price and higher yields coming at you right now And I'm gonna pull it up right now in terms of the yield on the tenure You talk about a pullback in price and an acceleration in yields 3.89% the yield on the tenure just that quick you see Friday's volatility But the move had already taken place man from Tuesday and a back this up 20 days for an hourly Not sure why we went all the way from 110 to half. We'll call it up to almost 114 Do we get a 114 print? No 113 30 was the high there Okay, but what you're still talking about three and a half points to the upside and just like that We've pulled back two and a half of those points back to 111 15 and then you put this thing on a daily I mean, there's basically no blip whatsoever. Just bouncing a bit off new lows We're getting lower price. We're getting higher yield this morning and let's jump to the Vicks volatility index quite a sell-off on Friday Vicks spiking back up near the 34 area and Just this morning. We're talking about 33 39 on a shorter term time frame There you see the acceleration overnight. We've backed off a bit as the markets have climbed But still always interesting folks when you have an elevated Vicks and you got a positive market now I just said the S&P is 50 points off its low last night So that's what's contributing to a little volatility premium in this market. Okay, even though we're positive by 10 We got volatility in this market as of Sunday night where we just traded off I just said 36 18 was the low Sunday night folks 36 18 to be exact the low Sunday night in the S&P So we're up almost 50 points from that price level. But anytime you have the Vicks is Elevated when you have a market that is positive not a Sign of strength in my opinion folks sometimes you will get a market sell-off on that open because the Vicks ain't lying man Volatility premium spikes up on people's back. We got a jobs number folks and we got CPI Coming at you this week. I think we get CPI on Thursday if somebody can let me know on the down But I think that's coming. We have Fed minutes maybe on Wednesday CPI on Thursday I believe not to mention earnings coming down the line as well And where are we gonna kick it off? Let's kick it off of the Amazon man. It seems like we talk about them enough on this program I do have some stock in Amazon and retirement account. No real active trades to speak of It's gonna be interesting to see how the sales season goes through them and it kicks off right now Haven't even pulled up Amazon yet, but I think they probably got what their deal day going on today, right? Starts at midnight tonight. That is the deal. So deal start at midnight. I mean look at their front page, right? Well, let me get it back. It's not even Prime Day. What are they calling it early? Prime early access sale quite a marketing point, right? Prime early access sale is what they're calling it. Come on explain for me Starts midnight October 11th and 12th. Now what I did see this weekend is Target, I think had some deals over the weekend. So they were trying to headline that Amazon Walmart kickoff holiday sales with massive deals expected. You talk about inflation squeeze Inventory inventory surge prompt retailers to offer steep price cuts. It's gonna be an interesting holiday season folks whether as a consumer Whether as a consumer facing higher costs in inflation as a consumer that's going to be seeing Steep price cuts because of in inventory levels by some of these retailers out there And we have Amazon trying to join the party with not only an Extra Prime Day, but they're squeezing in an early access sale in October ahead of Black Friday in November, right ahead of the December holiday Acceleration as well tech gadgets to sporting goods massive online discounts best go out bargains likely in late November That's Adobe talking about a report today Walmart already touting deals on computers toys air fryers this week Amazon They're gonna begin their early access sale Got to love it man It should be called on Offloading excessive inventory sale except basically what it is and targets weekly Black Friday deals have started I saw something they were advertising it deals through the weekend something like that Estimated online discounting and select categories. You're in the market for a computer folks. How about it, man? 2021 was the number in yellow 2022 is what you're gonna see this year computers 32% online discounting electronics 27% Furniture embedding the lowest number there, but that's still at 11 from basically nothing sporting goods is gonna be at 17 appliances Right appliances what happened to the days of appliances can't find an appliance not this not the situation right now, man 18% discounts apparel television toys 22% Online holiday sales from November 1st to December 31st projected to be 209.7 billion anyone here something crazy It is tough to quantify the wealth of some people folks, but when you put it that way Bezos Mosque Every single holiday sale and just think about the money you money you spend personally Over the months of November and December for the holiday Especially if you have a big family if you're an extended family depending on who you're buying presents for right? Holiday sales for the entire months of November and December are barely gonna be worth the worth of Somebody like them and that is just an obscene amount of money point point made That pales in comparison to last year's 8.6% gain So it's gonna be up 2.5% from a year ago, and yeah, it pales But boy you push that over two years and that's more than 11% and that's not even A compounding from 2.5 on the 8.6. That's just add them up. That's an 11% gain over two years Big numbers folks. All right folks day two. We'll talk a little bit of housing when we get back Mortgage rates housing and talk a little bit of earnings coming up this week as well. Stay tuned folks. I'll be right back Vista gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the mount Todd gold project This to gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve This to gold has all major permits approved and has retained C. IBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accreted Transaction this to gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC Vista gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence this mathematical principle is responsible for Everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market to stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at Tfnn.com when you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts Videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking expect notifications from Larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today Tfnn.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing it number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge Every day it is mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at Tfnn all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today Tfnn educating investors Tfnn has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours The Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational Community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We get the S&P's up about 12 points right now 3665 right where we started off the program. Let's jump around to some currencies right now You get the dollar index climbing yet again. We were at 113 overnight. We're just under that number right now at 112 99 You put the dollar index on a daily Continued strength folks higher highs higher lows making a run towards the upper portion of that trend line making a run towards About the 115 area 114 77 the prior high and that's a daily You're only going back to September 28th on the dollar index pretty well intact channel line to say the least man You jump over to the euro-us dollar Inverse of that chart just bounces up the top portion of that channel on euro-us dollar at 97 You make a run to the bottom part of that channel line man talking about 93 well within game for the euro-us dollar pound is its own animal man Pound us dollar right now. You're talking about 110 That tail I think that is real up until about 104 or something like that Breaking again below the channel line really not intact after that acceleration to the 105 104 area Maybe we see parity in the pound not out of the realm folks We were just at 138 back in November We're at 110 right now and we got a jump over to the end because you talk about a move That's why gold's getting hammered today right near the highs of 145 89 That's a daily look at the climb over the last four days alone You're at 143 52 were up two full points to 145 48 and so much for any type of pressure or Intervention or that or thereabouts over in Japan man as the yen right now pushing 145 pushing highs that we have seen on September 22nd and it gets all of that back in terms of the acceleration this thing dove down to 140 on the news that there may be just even some a hint that intervention could come into things in terms of the wording over there that and It just closed it all back to 145 50 on the dollar yen and as excuse me as I said gold contract Continuing to struggle man to say the least and let's jump to notes and bonds because that's going to be the next Conversation we're gonna talk a little bit of mortgage rates where they can talk a little bit of yields Look at the moves man from 140 to 111. That's the 10 year. There's your 30 year You want to see something decisive folks? You see where that you see where that? Back in August touch 146 on that channel line. Well, you know what that channel line is folks. Keep your eye on it That's a trend line. We'll call it not exactly a channel line a trend line going back to the year 2000 Colton and O'Brien reference for those they get it Going back to the year 2000 folks now since 2000, right? The Fed has been an active buyer of treasuries. This thing was at 191. You're at 125 Long dated treasuries a big risk obviously with what's going on everybody saying if you don't want rate exposure go short Right short term keep it short. Yeah, if you're a long-term man 191 to 125 my goodness, right? Even some of the funds, right? No, that's not it. What was I oh? Maybe no, no, that's not a TLT. Excuse me. That's what I want to pull up Yeah from 180 to 100 TLT. That's the I shares 20 plus year bond fund 180 to 101 man just huge moves now Let's tie it to the fundamental factor going on here now I had talked about this phenomenon a couple weeks back Bloomberg kind of rejuvenating the article but it's worth rejuvenating the point folks the most powerful buyers and Treasuries are all bailing at once I brought up the yen ahead of this because it's important to see where the yen is trading at to understand Why it may be tough for the yen in everything going on Japan as well Stepping into by US treasuries with the yen that is so weak right now Fed foreign governments commercial banks all stepping back more pain for bond investors Maybe in store amid a buyer void the biggest void potentially could be the Fed But it goes beyond that from Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments to US commercial banks Where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt most have now stepped away And then of course there's a federal reserve So a few weeks ago they up the pace that it plans to offload treasuries to 60 billion dollars a month that is 120 billion dollars in a year folks that is three quarters of a trillion dollars in a 12 month period That they would let roll off the balance sheet as opposed to right taking that money when that Bond or note expires and rolling it back into a demand and buying kind of back No, they're just gonna let it roll off now as Bloomberg states if one or two of these usually steadfast sources of demand We're bailing the impact while noticeable would be Little caused her alarm, but for every one of them all it wants to pull back is an undeniable source of Concern now you want to talk about some numbers. Let's get into some numbers, man The Fed represents the largest loss of demand the central bank more than doubled its debt portfolio in two years To an excess of eight trillion dollars Now that includes mortgage-backed securities, okay, and that could fall to about five point nine trillion by mid 2025 she's talking about almost three years from right now They would reduce it by two trillion dollars if officials stick with their current roll-off plans What's happening in the economy by the middle of 2025 folks with where we are that is anyone's guess man You start going on three years Just tell me where we're gonna be six months or 12 months from right now And that one is hard enough and here's the quote I want to get to since the year 2000 There has always been a big central bank on the margin buying a lot of treasuries. That's a credit Swiss group analyst Said during a recent live episode of a Bloomberg's odd lots podcast now We're basically expecting the private sector to step in instead of the public sector in a period where inflation is uncertain is As uncertain as it has ever been we're asking the private sector to take down all these treasuries that we're gonna push back into the system Without a glitch and without a massive premium Could it happen yes, you should be asking yourself that quiz same question too though folks We're pushing 60 billion dollars of treasuries into a market We have Japan stepping back you have some companies stepping stepping back and you have the ability for the Fed to need to keep raising into the future Right now I would say their estimates I talked about a little last week or a little bit rosy in terms of What the market is pricing and what may happen because right now the market's pricing in 75 50 in a quarter right 75 for November Probably 50 basis points in December and then they're pricing in one more 25 basis point cut next year. I would argue that With the jobs numbers we're getting an unemployment continuing to drop to 3.5 percent market still adding 260,000 plus jobs We get the CPI data this week folks watch out for that CPI data because it is Continuing to run hot and if it continues to run hot Is the Fed really gonna pause after December folks? It's gonna be December in 50 days Right time flies man. Okay. It is gonna be December in about 50 days 50 and It's tough for me to understand that the Fed is basically gonna be done with their hiking in 50 days Maybe they throw one more quarter point on top of it when we have the numbers coming in that we do we get CPI this week? That'll be a big one man Not sure how the market reacts if those numbers are still running hot, which is a real possibility So then you go, okay, if they're running hot Maybe the Fed will have to continue to hike if they're not running hot Are they gonna not hike that final 1.5 percent over the next three meetings? No, I'm pretty sure they're gonna do that no matter what I'm pretty sure 75 basis points. It's happening no matter what It would take a monumental reversal for 50 not to happen in December in my opinion. Okay, so really all the risk is To the Fed having to be much more aggressive and much more hawkish than the market is pricing in That is the real point that the market is not pricing in an accurate risk to the Fed having to do more We're gonna finish this conversation up folks because you're seeing it in how these yields may play out, okay? We're talking about hedging costs Surging in tandem with the dollar. Okay 25 percent this year versus the yen. We'll finish this conversation folks We'll talk a little mortgage rates and housing as well. Stay tuned The time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded. 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We get the s&p's open We're up 10 points in the s&p to 36 63 nasdaq 100 hanging on to the gains up by six Remember folks that vix elevated right now from where we were on friday friday 32 39 Even where we were on friday right think about the sell-off we had on friday The vix spikes to only 32 we make it above 33 overnight because we did have the vix down to as low as 36 18 So more than 40 45 points from where we are right now to the downside Finishing up that conversation about notes bonds treasuries the whole deal Ten year down about two ticks right now jumping back to the article. I was talking about here Because talking about the yen right? Let's jump to the end real quick as I jump over because it makes sense folks If you're following everything going on with currencies yields, etc Dollar yen 145 56. Okay, and the part I really wanted to get to in this article. Let me find the chart I was just looking at it as well Oh, come on Oh, what's it doing to me? I'm getting Here we go Okay, forgive me for scrolling a bit. This is the chart. I want it perfect Uh japan investors shout out a us bonds by currency protection costs. Okay First pay attention to the blue that is our 10 year nominal yield Uh, that's the yield we quote it does in fact do it obviously real yields Okay, which then you're talking about inflation. Um, you're talking about hedging costs Okay, the nominal yield right now is pushing 4% in us treasuries Japan the 10 year yield we'll call it zero. It's not zero folks. It's probably a quarter point, right? We'll call it zero for all intents and purposes the 10 year yield hedge for yen investors Check it out in the red man. Yeah Negative 1% Yeah, they're not buying it folks. Why would you buy a 10 year hedge? In the us for minus 1% when you can buy a japan yield for a quarter point, right? Hedging cost is extreme. Now This is why japan is out of the market. Okay. I bring it up because it makes sense folks Think about it. They are out of the market. They're not buying treasuries. The fed is not going to be buying treasuries Okay, then you go into the fact they talk about in this article. It's not just them The dollar is causing big problems as they put it around the world Okay emerging market central banks have trimmed their stockpiles by 300 billion this year Yeah countries around the world that were running down their foreign exchange reserves Which have been in the dollar some of them to defend their currencies against the surging dollar in recent months Now i'll digress Well before I do that means limited demand at best from a group of price sensitive investors that traditionally Put about 60 or more of their reserves Into us dollar investments then you have banks they talk about banks Okay, one or two key buyers of treasuries has seemingly backed away And they picked up the slack banks that is not happening demand from us commercial banks has dissipated as fed policy tightening drains reserves out of the financial system Okay in the second quarter banks purchased the least amount of treasuries since the final three months of 2020 The drop in bank demand has been stunning as deposit growth has slowed sharply This has reduced bank demand for treasuries Particularly as the duration of their assets have extended sharply this year It adds up to a bearish undertone for rates as in higher rates potentially coming at you folks in a big way And the digression that i'm going to make folks as we have the market pulling back a bit You got s and p now flat to red you got nasdaq flat to red Anytime you see the market's positive folks and you see a vix elevated Now you know this move is nothing yet because we were down to 36 18 But always pay attention to that one man because it is a warning sign doesn't mean you're always going to trade lower Okay, and rightfully the market is pricing in more volatility premium When yeah, we may be positive by 10 points, but you were just down to 36 18 and 36 24 overnight, right? But be careful of that one as we have an elevated vix and a positive market We come into and what happens we get a little bit of a sell-off The digression talking about okay is that Now trump was one of the worst offenders out there, but he's not the only one folks and you're going to hear it again Okay, people love to promote that they don't want a strong dollar Okay, because it hurts companies that are selling things overseas folks Think about what is going on in america right now if you live in america and think about what's going on You just saw japan What's going on there? They have a A real yield in the u.s of negative one percent right now because they have to spend so much money to hedge their weak currency Okay, we're seeing it happen whether it's in commodities Right these currencies that rely on commodities folks I know it's easy to think like especially in the u.s Where we rely on so much business from overseas right our companies are international they're selling goods overseas And we may see an earnings problem in the stock market Okay in this coming year because of The fact that they are selling goods in And a currency That is super strong causing their earnings to be a problem when they're collecting currencies They're too weak right you collect a euro that's weak the market cares about how many u.s Dollars you make in profit it doesn't care about how many euros you make now those companies can give numbers which are Currency heads or whatever they call it right currency fluctuations aside. This is what we would have made without them That's not how the world works though folks Okay, and you are seeing the benefit of a strong dollar think about it this way It's my opinion Okay, but think about it this way because this is literally the reality of it We have a system where we print paper And we assign that paper a certain value as the united states of america sounds so simple This is the way it works. But when you hear the logic of wanting a weak dollar, man We as a country we print paper And then other countries pay us through that paper In the long run folks you want that paper to be worth more than what the other country is printing their paper for You want that to happen? That's the currency that we keep our savings in right? It is a one world economy folks Okay, and so it's very easy in the short term to say well if you trash our dollar all these Um all of these companies would be able to sell their dollar their their goods all overseas, right? Yeah, that's not the case folks because we're seeing what happening. You need commodities to do things, right? Chips are becoming a commodity. Okay. You don't want a weak dollar, man We're seeing the play out these currencies are in a big problem You see the yen going on right now now we got rising yields But why do we got rising yields man? We have rising dollar Why do we have rising dollar because we have yields because we can actually raise yields because we have a Strong enough economy right now to handle raising yields out there So keep that in mind and remember over the long run, right? It's like I have kids man You want a strong dollar folks? That is the the you know The pinning of our economy. It's the pinning of our savings the pin pinning of what we keep all of our wealth in Of course, you want a strong dollar and you're seeing a play out right now, man That chart on the yen folks that should be a wake up Because you want a weak currency Go buy some yen, man The people in japan are in big trouble right now folks and you're seeing a play out Now when you talk about How this is going to play out for interest rates though and mortgages It's like a eighth level thought process of where this market goes now mortgage rates They slipped to 6.6. This is almost like a real estate show folks, but guess what? I forget whether it's teddy keg stat or a man kevin hanks one of them. Okay Uh The three things you want to keep your eye on right now folks You're talking about yields. You're talking about the dollar, right? And uh, i'm losing the third one, but anyway mortgage rates 6.6 percent the first drop in seven weeks You see a little bit of a pullback home loan cost still near a 15 year high Now bloombergs got a great article out this morning. We'll tease this as we come into the break Uh, doesn't mean the market's gonna crash though Does not mean that folks There's a lot more going on in this market right now and a lot of it having to do with supply and supply Nobody's gonna be selling their house folks when they get a three percent mortgage And you got to get into a mortgage at six and a half percent if you want to do one if you sell your home We'll be right back You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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We get the s&p's holding up right now up by two points at 36 55 nasdaq takes a dive on the open 11,040 right now we get the dial up 136 right now and we jump over to the yields Why not as we got a little bit of lower price right now you get the tenure Approaching about 3.89 percent right now the yield on the tenure trading down about five ticks right near the lows that we have Of friday so jumping back to mortgage. Okay And the headline from bloomberg is here's how weird things are getting in the housing market And yeah, there's a lot of levels going on folks and part of the points that they make here. Okay Excuse me We're in uncharted territory. Okay, they talk about yeah rising yields are of course going to impact things Okay, mortgage rates have shot up crimping affordability, but at the same time There are very few four sellers and therefore very little inventory. Okay And the quote is they say a lot of these statistics that we use to forecast things like housing activity And by that we mean home sales or housing starts our levels that we either haven't seen before Or or we've seen them. We haven't seen them for decades. Okay the listings of existing available homes Okay, these are existing. They're not new. They're people who have a home And they're in it and they're going to sell it Okay, it was never lower than it was earlier this year We've been been increasing just a very little bit off the bottom for the past three months I wonder what's going to happen to that number now that the mortgage rates are even continuing to rise continuing And what do you now have a little bit of a pullback in prices potentially even if you're talking about one to two percent They think it's going to keep listings tight which will keep home prices more supported now that is a very general term Okay, it could be more supported and it might drop only 15 percent as to 30 or it might drop what 20 as opposed to 30 or it might drop five as opposed to 10 Whatever that is, but here's the kicker right and we all know it But keep it in mind if you solve this equation folks You will make a lot of money because what's going to happen in real estate is going to determine a lot It is it's just such a big market Current homeowners in order to sell their home in a lot of instances would have to take out a mortgage That might be 300 points higher than their current mortgage now. They say 2 to 50 or 3 Folks the mortgage rate is 6.66 percent Yeah, there's a lot of people that are in mortgage rates over 4 percent There are a lot of people at mortgage rates under 4 percent as well folks. So you're talking about almost 300 basis points They're just not going to be willing to sell their home at the lower price point That might be more affordable for the first time home buyer. It's not going to happen, man um Yeah, and we got mortgage rates at almost 7 percent now Um and housing affordability is deteriorating rapidly. Yeah, I would say so when you add in the payments folks, you're talking about Almost double sometimes the payments what you're paying And then I've been talking about it on this program that we have an insurance crisis going on in florida, man Hopefully the census gets control of it because it's going to be made even worse by hurricane ian now Uh, and it is a severe deal folks. I told you I got to get a citizen's quote. I got a quote from my Four bedroom two bath. Okay. It is a duplex each side is a two bedroom one bath It is a total of 15 90 square feet Looks bigger than it is each side about 800 square feet a two bedroom one bath 800 square foot apartment in a beautiful single family home Um neighborhood in tampa. It's grandfathered in so it's really just single families not duplexes It's a fortunate property in there the insurance bill that my renewal company sent me folks Was 7300 dollars for that property 7300 dollars for that property for a duplex Uh, that's basically a four bedroom two bath home for all intents and purposes. That's only 1600 square feet Okay, you don't hear about it if you're not in florida folks if you are in florida You're hearing about it because you have to pay the bill if you're a homeowner you're seeing that bill Get a citizen's quote. I'm going to I've heard some great stories of citizens that really reduce things I'm talking about reducing it folks by like 50 60 70 percent sometimes Some people talking about because some of these numbers for renewal that the insurance companies are sending out Are just bonkers because they're ready to pull out of the whole state And hopefully they don't because we're going to be left with citizens. And then what happens? every single resident in florida is going to end up paying for the insurance debacle of privatizing Insurance in the state of florida when we get hit by hurricanes folks It's basically what's happening right now because the market is such a mess Because it's rampant with fraud from trial lawyers because guess what lawyers are usually politicians So politicians know lawyers So it's very difficult to solve the problem in tallahassee right now for all the elected officials in florida Because they get a lot of money from lawyers and lawyers are the ones that really are benefiting from the broken system of insurance um running up costs for Litigation that really should not be taking place That's its own deal man. But guess what that's a big problem as well But this market folks there is going to be a steep steep supply problem And what's going to happen when we have a big supply problem, right? Um And yeah, they put it people are locked in at their current homes at these lower rates folks So what we're already seeing we're anticipating going forward is that the inventory the listings of existing homes available for sale All right It was never lower than it was this one the inventory of single family homes is lower than it has been in at least 40 years Okay, inventory is in there folks They're going to be a big battle right now with inventory and then you tie into that rent Okay, and then you tie into that where mortgage rates are Yeah, the sales are going to dry up folks. But guess what? Available supply is also going to dry up because people were willing to sell their house when they could get into the next one at 4% right that was part of the run-up People were able to take advantage of the steep acceleration the market has seen because they were able to get into that next home If they wanted to at a similar price Um for a mortgage that is for a similar price. Maybe not the same exact price They're selling it. Maybe you got a $400,000 home. It goes up to 750. So you know what? I don't have to live there I'm going to pocket the 350,000 and I'm going to go move somewhere else for x period of time It becomes not as easy of a financial transaction even in your head, right Where you know if you get out of that home number one You got rent prices that are still continuing to climb. Okay, number two You want to buy that same exact home? And you're buying it at a mortgage rate of seven seven and a half percent, man Which is going to just blast your payment through the moon So that is going to disincentivize people from selling Which should help prop up the market to a certain degree now We take that one step further folks to cpi. We get cpi this week. Okay cpi I gotta get the exact statistic because shelter which takes in rent, of course and mortgages Shelter costs. Okay. I think it's about One third or 30 percent of the headline cpi number the number. I do know is it's close to 40 percent of the core number Okay What happens with those prices is going to be a huge determinant folks and no matter what happens We are going to see a lag in rental prices climbing because real estate has shot up in a big way Even if it plateaus or pulls back a bit rents still need to catch up So that's where I keep going. What's going to happen man when we get the cpi Especially the core number now I bring up crude here because crude has been no help man What if we have rents pushing the core number higher? And what if we just get a rebounding crude to around 100 to 115? That would push the headline number up. And what would that mean folks? That would mean that we'd have cpi running hot As we come into the beginning of next year when the fed's supposed to stop hiking That's the one that stopped for me folks because right now I see cpi running hot There's no way around it in my opinion And what happens when it's running hot is the fed really going to pause and say we started hiking in march of 2022 We're approaching march of 2023. We're going to pause and let things play out It's possible. Okay, because they will be in a restrictive policy rate at that point But if the cpi is running hot man, and I see this market running hot because I don't see the real estate market collapsing To the point their rents aren't going to be raised for the next year or two. Stay tuned folks We'll be coming back. We're going to talk some earnings when we come back We'll get out of that housing market. We'll talk some jp. 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We got the crew contract spiking up to 93 64 We give up a quick dollar there to 92 56 you talk about some volatility man. These are five minute bars folks We just traded up a dollar and 20 cents and down a dollar in the last what 20 minutes of trading in that Crew contract s and p's rolling over we're now negative by 12 You're now negative by about 20 points on the open nasdaq negative by 90 Dow barely hanging on to the gains but all the markets trade lower on the open We get the gold contract continuing to struggle up by 20 up down 26 dollars. We jump over to currencies dollar index 1 13 58 Let's see how that yen is trading right now. We get the dollar yen one fifth 145 58 Climbing towards that overnight high at 145 66 and I think the high on the yen is just shy of 146 Yeah 145 89 made uh september 22nd. All right jump it around to some of the banks So Who do we got here? Let me pull them up in terms of who we're talking about we get Oh, come on. I'm pulling them up as we we we got jp morgan and we have Wells vargo. Let's kick it off with those two because I think they're friday morning morning Jp morgan you're up by about half a percent today. We jump over the analyze tab We take a look at the earnings tab. Yes, they are. They're going to be out with their numbers october 14th I did have this up Had it all pulled up and my screens are not quite Cooperating in terms of where we are right now Oh, forgive me folks Okay, we do get jp morgan. So they're out friday. We got wells fargo. I believe they're out friday as well Yes, they are we'll jump around as we finish up the programs. We got delta airlines They're out with their numbers on thursday delta priced in about a buck 55 move We also get pepsi. They're out uh, tuesday tomorrow So pepsi tomorrow delta on thursday wells fargo and jp morgan on friday earning season is here folks As I mentioned, we also get fed minutes this week And we get cpi data thursday morning at 8 30 in the morning. We'll finish up on the airline Why not delta airlines? We'll take a look at the chart. Let's put it on a daily You talk about a struggle put it on a weekly. Yeah chopping around man 29 34 higher crude prices possible recession s and p's negative by 10 folks stay tuned We got live programming all day folks basils up next We've got a man steve rhodes At 11 fast market at 12 larry at 1 david 2 tom o brian my dad live at 3. Have a great monday everybody