 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good boys I'm gonna go over some of the trades that we had up here remember I was recommending selling the S&P here on a 382 retracement on Monday And we got a real nice 382 retracement there at 63 and then today Hold on Microsoft is making new highs on the year and I have to turn off that beeper Otherwise, it'll drive me nuts. There's probably going to be a few others because as usual I've had a tiny bit of trouble with the yeah, we're right up against that new highs now in softy That's where we are Anyway, let's just talk here about the silver because I think this is a this to me is a trading opportunity You'll notice here. We had the a b cd coming down here Listen, I'm gonna draw this in I want to show you some of the tools that I use here Most of yous have seen them all but we're gonna show them to you again. There's your a b leg right there There's your cd leg coming in right here, and then we have another a b leg right here and a cd leg Coming in right up here at 24 95. The high today was 2504 so it's went about seven cents of where we are Right there now all I'm going to do now. I've had a request to go over what I do when I'm looking at these lunar cycles There's a program in ensign that draws the cycles from low To high okay, and you see that's a that's a 12 day cycle Okay, now all I do is when I see high to high again said, you know watch for stuff like that And I picked I picked the middle one I could have picked either one figure around 12 11 or 12 days, and I just move it over here And you'll see that should be coming in either today or tomorrow. I could if it was 11 days It was today yesterday was the full moon So what I did was I think I I said we should go short here at 2 4 9 5 I didn't put it in because I had you know I had the what do you call it they had all the alligators in the swamp were coming out at the same time I started out with the trade in the S&P, and I just give it to you right I gotta do one thing at a time here. I stand Harley will be our guest anyway All I'm doing now is I'm going to convert this and you'll see here that ensign gives you the Possibility of looking at half cycles or the moon phases see it half cycles It would do this you see I do third cycles you could do all that stuff if you wanted to but that doesn't help you at all Okay, so what all I well it maybe it helps you here's the moon phases Okay, now I want to get rid of that and I have to get rid of this because I can't just I'll get it out of the way because now I can see the full moon. See there's there's a new moon right here one day off the high There's a full moon nothing see right in the middle of the cycle nothing happens right there There's the full moon right here one day off of the high There's a new moon day right off of the low There's a full moon Right has to be right in here because it's got to be halfway through There's a new moon right in the middle of the cycle just a little bit of a pullback And then we have nothing there and then there's a full moon right here right on the money There's a new moon and here we are at a full moon with a big ABCD up into this level right here So this is why I think this is a cell right here to 495 remember. This is silver Okay, now look what's look what's happened to gold folks gold is going gold is a rocket ship. Look at this We've got gold up $30 today and silver's up just a tiny tiny bit See we're sitting right there at the 1.27 expansion of the whole monthly range So that's a little something but let's like but anyway, let me get back to this how this thing operates Okay, get back to this silver because see now what you do is you can go back and test as far as you want to see These are usually within one day. Now. I also do a day count just like I said here I count the days up when it adds to the lunar thing. Then yes, that's what I do I know this is a winning trade here folks. I can tell you why All I know is it's a 10 cent risk. I can't log into my system. I don't know what's happened I I I don't know the losses that I've taken I take it. Well, I the breaky We had a $900 profit in the S&P ended up making nothing Okay, then I lost $300 in the British pound getting stopped out right on the high Canadian dollar is down $220. I lost $30 in an absolute beautiful trade in ABCD pattern in $250 in crude oil. I'll just show you that one right there is where we were I did this ABCD Right there got stopped out right there. There it is right there So I did that one and then I did one other one The total losses were not that much the one that did do okay Of course was the one we were watching yesterday Which was the wheat and you'll see the wheat there was the week we were looking at you remember We were watching this level right here and we were watching the December remember because the December was different Let's get the December up because that's that's the one that gave us the Information that we wanted to see so that will be W which would be right here. There's a December We'll get this up here and you see what we did today Look at this we went and we made within a half a cent of the exact same low yesterday 527 and one-quarter and the low today is 528 and now we're trading 13 cents higher up here at this level right here in just a matter of minutes the problem is boys and girls I Put my stop back here at break even at 458 in the March and so I ended up have my stop right here Okay, instead of putting it right there where it was yesterday. I changed it and guess what? A way it goes for 13 cents. These are airs trading airs and when they happen, you know, there's absolutely You know, what are you going to do? You just got to move on to the next You can see here the British pound how much it's moved since it hit that exact number just a minute ago So anyway, that's what I'm going through looking at some of these things here Today getting back to the stock market and we'll get up here if you remember when we were looking at the stock market I said to sell that 382 retracement back. That was right there Okay, and then the market came down stopped exactly at the 786 and what else did it do a Bcd I mean just and I saw it happening and I said well I'm not going to take the profit there because I think this is going to be the really big one Okay, so I moved my stopped here and look what happens boom Goes up didn't take it out. So this means that this is still valid. It did not take that out So I think it's important that we pay attention to that. I don't know whether the Dow Jones did it or not But that's it. Let me get back here and show you a couple other things it from from just from historical purposes Oh the Euro because that was another one that I didn't do the Euro yesterday if you remember because we had that Possibility there was your 61% retracement, but we had that three drive pattern here So your a bcd your three drive pattern it 109942 and it went to 100.008 So it was off by about 16 pips and now that's you know, that's where we're sitting here right now We went above the 61% retracement on the year. We did not do that in the British pound Okay, now here's one when someone sent this to me today. I just said you've got to be kidding me Look at this in the GLD folks Look at that 382 just absolutely spot on in the gold at ETF and look at all of these gaps Let's just take a quick look at this where we are. We're getting ready to take new highs out All right, let's take a break here eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight. We'll be right back Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 finishing it number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with Anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien Renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom Publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or Just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to market insights today Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new Subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to TFNN.com Right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN educating investors Currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe Which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Keg stats Tiger 4x report Teddy Keg stat breaks down the 4x markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures 4x stocks and options Teddy releases his weekly Tiger 4x report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs Including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar Swiss dollar yen as well as many more And he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year t-bonds as they both influence 4x markets Tremendously when you sign up for the Tiger 4x report you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60 minute webinar archive He just hosted 4x strategies and fundamentals What is behind the Tiger 4x report for all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger 4x report subscription today? Visit the front page of TFNN.com TFNN educating investors toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Okay, folks. I want to walk through this silver trade with you here The high that we made yesterday was two four nine three, okay the high today was Two five oh four, so it made a higher high by ten cents now You can see we are trading below it here at two four nine two Now look at this move right here. Look at the move in gold folks Gold move thirty three dollars to stop exactly at the one point two seven on the long-term chart from the November high Or excuse me the October high to the November low stopped exactly at one point two to the exact tick folks The number is two oh four four and it stopped the high was Two oh four four point one. Are you kidding me? You can't make this stuff up. That's why silver is a good Short in my opinion. We know for sure that the risk is very very small Okay, your stop would have to be right above there. See that's your number 2504 so you were at well now you got to risk a little more during this last break here We had a little bit of a rally here that wouldn't have made much difference three or four cents But I would really like to do that I can't even log on to my system why I don't know but I'll find out when I'm when I'm done here In just a little bit. Okay now the next one. I wanted to double check here Is a couple things here on the to see if the other markets made new highs So let's go here and we're gonna look at the Dow Jones and see if the Dow Jones made a new high on this run And it did you can see here. We made a higher high today. We'll put the 13 minute up. Wow. Look at that Hi, we had look where we are. We're driving 34. We already dropped 150 points off of that high It did make a higher. Oh made a sharply higher high 1.618 expansion of this whole move so S&P did not do that, but the Dow Jones went where to go to Exactly 1.618. So we got that covered now. Remember I said to sell the Russell because That was the weakest. That's what you're supposed to do, but I'm not smart enough to follow my own instructions So that's not even funny actually. Here's the here's the Russell and we're gonna put the hourly chart It probably made a 382 would be my guess. It didn't even do anything today Look at this. This was the high we made a few days ago. It's it's been going lower and lower We went down all the way to the bottom here and we'll see what the retracement was on the way back I can tell you it's 786 with a relatively good duff There it is right at the 7-8 percent retracement and now it's going down. It's a perfect example Sell the weakest that's the easiest way to do it just like the coyotes They go for the animal that is having trouble. They don't go after the large grizzly bears That's very very grizzly bears. That's a good Freudian slip, isn't it? Okay Now the last one we want to look at is the Nasdaq which has been the leader of pack during on this whole thing I'm just verifying this myself To see where we are because I'm going to have to re-enter this thing probably Later today or tomorrow. So here's the Nasdaq. Look at the Nasdaq. It didn't do anything folks There's our high that we made back here the other day Okay, we didn't even make an a look at this. We didn't even make an a b c d to the upside here Let's see what our retracements were from the high we made back here on Gung-ho sunday or gung-ho thursday whatever that was all we did was we couldn't even make a 61 Percent retracement back and look we're we're giving it back That's why you know you got to look for a place to get short this because we're going to have Some type of a correction from this level how big it's going to be. I don't know but uh, all I know is that uh, when we do get Through this time period of the holidays and we get into january folks. We we're going to have some volatility This is nothing compared to what you're going to see here in a few weeks. I I really strongly believe that I I know i'm a bit tired right now, but I can see it happening And uh, when I see things like you know this move here potentially here in silver That's the kind of thing where you get really good One other thing you might want to check is if you went down and looked at the slv I don't even if I still look at that thing anymore. No, I don't let's get that get the silver the one that they look at the Slv that's the etf for silver And we'll get the daily up and see what it looks like probably has gaps all over it All right, there's where we are with the silver Okay, here's where we are. Look look where we are here in silver folks We've got gold Above these highs. Okay. Here's where we are in silver the same thing. There's your a b cd. Let's just measure it and see where we are. There's a b b equal cd Right there. Look at this Silver cannot even make a higher high than yesterday Shut the front door and raise the rent. This is the slv Uh, it matched it. It looks like Yes, it matched the high at 2290 or 2282 right now, which happens to be Looks like the exact 786 And there it is right there if you believe in garly By golly, you got to look at this folks. Let me show you something right here if you can buy this a b cd pattern Right there which matches up with this a b cd pattern right here Okay, then you got to sell this one Because that's a perfect a b cd and not only that it's still a bear market That's nothing more than a long-term garly pattern Stopping exactly where it's supposed to be Which is right there your risk on that slv would be 20 cents But if you're doing the futures your risk has got to be about 10 cents, but we'll see You know that your risk has to be right here at 25 25 13 so you're risking 20 cents and the profit potential on that if it's a high Is going to be substantial So that's uh something that we want to keep that, you know, very very very close eye on Okay, well now we'll take another look at I think we covered everything that I wanted to cover for this with the Of all the trades that we did, you know the total amount of dollar wise folks It was not a very much. It wasn't very much. I mean it was uh Probably a couple grand which is you know far less than 1 percent But the problem is when you have six trades going on and you only can you you end up losing on four Of the six and then break even on one and uh have a small loss in the third one So you're basically looking at five out of six losing trades and then they've reversed in your favor That's what we call a very very tough day And so this is why instead of drinking water like I usually drink today This is schmerinoff's finest and if you believe that I still have two shares of the brooklyn bridge This is just aqua regia folks. There's nothing more wait. That's air clerk. 100 clerk acid. This is water Stand harley will be our guest giving us some good dates here And if he's got some good dates in the stock market today, that's another reason to think You know, that's what we're looking at right here In the s&p because the s&p did not make a new high Nor did the nasdaq nor did the rustle it was only the dow Jones That made that and that was due to one stock that I know for sure Which was Boeing and it's probable a few others in there because that's what we're watching now If you're doing this professionally what you should do now and I'm not trading the rest of the day folks I am finished. I might not trade again till 1230 How does it joke anyway watch for a 382 retracement up here 4561 that was where I would look at it again because Nothing's really changed. This is all Federal reserve bs for mr. Waller one of our favorite fed governors. We'll be right back eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight with mr. Stan harley gold report As a precious metal gold is still king It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market The u.s. Futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom o'brien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xAU hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy cell recommendations The gold report New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom o'brien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all He's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets That he's tracking expect notifications from larry on market movement You need to act on at any time first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours And now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigresses for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den You can look over the shoulders of tom o bryan and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs And join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas Interact with other tigers and tigresses as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Even at night and on the weekends the tigers den at discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv That's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Okay for back folks We have stan harley in the house with a beautiful christmas red shirt on my golly looks like santa claus himself How are you doing stan? Ho ho ho. How are you doing larry? I'm good still living to dream. What do you got for us today my friend? I got a glass of schmerz off here to join you. Yeah, right now if I drink that stuff I would be I can't even drink wine anymore Hey, i'm due north of you Oh, that's right. You're in arizona today. Yes. I forgot Yeah, I came up to california See the new grand baby spent a few days there. Oh, I'm in arizona Family, we have having a good old time. The weather is here. It's just gorgeous One of our very very favorite folks here that we don't get to talk to very often He's a very very famous trader. He's going to be moving up to Cave creek it looks like I won't mention who it is until he moves up there But uh, he's uh, he's been he's traveled all over the world. Anyway, tell us what you're looking at my friend You've got some of the best dates that we have in this program. So they've they've done pretty well. So tell us what we're looking at Absolutely What I thought I'd do is start out show the show the stock market here okay let's uh, let's take a look first at the weekly data and uh, this is sort of a continuation of the theme that I've been talking about for some time on the uh on the weekly chart we tend to get dominant lows about every 33 to 34 weeks over the long haul it's closer to 34 weeks In in the last couple of years it's expand or it's contracted just as goes to to about 33 weeks But over the long haul it's 34 weeks, which is eight months Both of those numbers 34 and 8 Have to be happened to be a part and parcel of the Fibonacci series. No surprise there and the most recent low in this cycle occurred on october 27th, and we've been powering higher since that day And uh on the air here with you. I was suggesting that uh, that would be a backup the truck moment That I thought we would get a rocket ship advance out of that low and uh, with very little hesitation And uh, and a blink of an eye we'd be a new high ground and that's that's still what I'm expecting Stan I I don't correct my guests very often But I have to do this. Okay. I I owe it to my readers and my listeners You just mentioned that you thought it was going to go up with very little Correction, uh, there was no correction. Let's correct that. Okay. I mean, it's been straight up I mean it's been straight up 22 22 trading days Yes, uh And I think this is a blow-off top in the making Okay, and uh, I think we are fast approaching what is going to be a Secular market peak that could stand for some time. I think it's coming Um We've got a couple of months before we get there and I'll talk about that here in a couple of slides But uh, yeah, I think this is going to be one for the record books Uh, playing this from the long side for the next couple of months. I think it's going to be uh The way to go for alongside investors. I think folks that try to fight this thing are going to be are going to be missing out But the path of least resistance is northbound in my judgment We've got to take out the uh, the summer highs as you can see on the weekly chart We're getting close to that july 27 slash august first peak Um, I think we'll uh, we'll chop sideways here for a few more days and I've got some charts I'm going to share here on that but in the blink of the eye I think you're going to see a record high ground not in all market indices But uh, but some it's going to be a diversion top in the making Well, let's look at the daily data Um, this is current through just a just a short while ago Uh, we are uh doing a little hesitation now just shy of the summer highs to be expected Uh, as as as a market approaches a former high You've got a lot of people that want to get out essentially where they got in So all those folks that bought in in late july early august are hitting the sell button right now Uh, so we've got a little bit of sideways chop. I think it's probably going to carry forward for about another week or so But uh, I see between now and the next week Sideways chop more sideways than than down But any give back at all I think is a gift for alongside investors What I've shown here on the screen and this is a continuation of something I've been talking about with you and any viewers for months The dominant lows have been coming in nominally at 53 trading days Sometimes 49 and sometimes a little bit more that cycle expands and contracts A couple of times it has expanded by 1.5 But then it falls right back to its regular heartbeat The most recent low on october 27th Mark the latest low in the 53 day cycle And my regression analysis points to the next recurrence in this pattern for Mid to late january And I think the cycle is going to invert at that point in time And it's probably going to coincide with what I think is going to be an important market high Wow, looks pretty good to me This is uh, this is a magnified view of the s and p 500. I ran this off. Uh, just as you can see a little over an hour ago Uh, the 53 day lows I've marked here with purple vertical lines And then what is interesting Is we've got a Fibonacci series expansion ongoing in the pattern of highs notice, uh, not Fibonacci what I really meant to say was a lucas series expansion The lucas number series are a little bit different from the Fibonacci series. They're all related Lucas numbers are simply the Fibonacci numbers multiplied by the square root of five Um, so lucas 76 to find the high we saw back in february of this year Doubling of that is a 152 That defined the high in early may Then the next lucas number in the series 199 coincide to the day With the uh, with the high and the down on august the first of this year And just a couple of days prior to that the s and p picked out Assuming the pattern continues The next lucas number in the series is 322 And that falls into the mid to late january time period And assuming this Series of lucas counts and their doubles Coinciding with significant market highs. I think the pattern is not going to fail us. I think it's going to once again I'm working on an important high and I think that could be a very important high So what i'm saying is between 16 and 26 january With the middle the middle of that falling somewhere around the 19th Uh might might be it If we get closer and closer to that date I might refine that a bit. I might even change my mind altogether. That's certainly possible. But right now It's looking like uh, that might very well be a very very important market high I think it's going to be a divergent market high larry. That is to say You might see the s and p go to a new high. Maybe the dow. Maybe the naz Maybe non the transports Maybe not the new york composite. I don't know what what combination Of divergences will occur. It's way too early for me to say but normally normally most Uh cyclical market peaks tend to be characterized by some type of divergences Where you see a fewer number of stocks And yes, I'm on the benchmark. It's going to new high ground. I think that's what's going to happen We're gonna we're gonna pay a few bills here stan So stay with us and we'll be right back with stan harley the harley stock market letter folks stay with us, please You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Introducing tom obryan's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading tom obryan renowned for his expertise In the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted Stay ahead of the game with tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox Whether you're a season trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence Ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to tfnn.com and subscribe to market insights today Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30 day money back Guarantee for all new subscribers. So you have nothing to risk Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game Head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders Who have already experienced the power of tom obryan's award-winning newsletter market insights firsthand tfnn educating investors Biotech is booming But for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade labu or labd Directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs Visit direction investments.com slash biotech today An investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz The back folks talking with stan harley of the harley stock market letter and he has certainly been telling us Some great stuff through the years. So please Keep going stand Well, thank you larry I I heard you talking a little while ago With the view that we might see an expansion of volatility coming real soon. I I respectfully have a different view. I don't think that's going to happen Um, I think what is more likely to occur is we're going to chop sideways In a fairly narrow range with very limited volatility as opposed to an expanded degree of volatility and uh, that's typical of what one see and uh, and I'm in a Initial move off of a 34 week cycle bottom And I think this move off that 34 week cycle bottom It's going to have some degree of prominence because it is evolving into what I'm expecting Expecting which I'm saying I think will occur is going to be a blow-off time Here is an indicator on the screen that I developed a number of years ago Uh, nothing really novel about it. It's it's merely a computation of rate of change Uh One thing I think a lot of technicians don't understand is they will Assign numerical values to their indicators without a lot of thought But as it turns out depending on the Number whether it's 9 10 14 21, whatever number one chooses um To get the right Wave form is dependent upon the cycle that's in play at that present time But cycles vary so How do you get around that seemingly? Astronomical a possibility of having the perfect indication well You can't but there is a way around it and my way around it is I Take the same calculation across multiple time frames. I've chosen three I've been doing this these three numbers 7 14 and 20 for a couple of decades now There's nothing scientific about it other than it seems to work And and and I don't say that with with a smirk or anything. I'm just saying that uh As one gets experienced in the field of technical When it develops a tool of indicators and oscillators I think we all get fairly familiar with their variance nuances Overall market cycles up and down. We know when they get to extremes We know when they develop divergences kind of get a good sense of them But what I've done here is I look back 7 trading days 14 trading days and 20 trading days Subtract the two and divide by those numbers and I get a measure of price velocity some call that Conflictation rate of change some say momentum. I don't like the time momentum. I'm an engineer I like price velocity. Well long and then I smooth the raw data with some exponential moving averages Where am I going with all this? Well, look at the red dots and the green dots Representing seven day and 14 day price velocities. They're coming downhill right now But price is not going downhill price on the daily chart is even sideways So in a bull market if we see Price velocity coming downhill But price is going sideways, but not down that has profoundly bullish implications And I think that's what's going to happen here I think these dots are going to kind of head down here for the next several days and early next week Price is going to just essentially chop sideways and a fairly narrow band with low volatility And then next week you're going to come in one morning The futures are rocketing higher and away we go and we start powering northbound once again So you really think that the the volatility is going to slow down after the first of the year No, what I'm saying is the volatility or next several days is going to oh, okay next several days I can understand that yes And then we're going to hit cycle low, which essentially is going to be The apex Of this sideways movement That will serve to work off the overbought condition And set the technical underpinnings for the market to move higher Take out the summer highs and then uh And then the next goal is to Challenge the january highs from last year Okay, it makes good, but just looking at this chart You'd be naive to think that it can't challenge those eyes because you're just uh A baby's breath away from those eyes baby's breath away from the summer highs And then of course what I don't show in this chart looking back a little bit further in time are the january 2022 highs We're only right now, uh, larry. We're only five percent from the s&p's all-time high in january Certainly are yes, we did do another five percent from here. Oh my gosh. It could do that in a couple of days Yeah, well, we've done we've done three percent before so I think five percent is not too bad We've got those huge gaps in this move from october 27th and ppi cpi ppi. Yeah, we And I don't think those gaps are going to get filled anytime soon Okay, maybe next year, but not not in the short term That's my theory. We'll see where that pans out Uh, let's shift gears. We got a little bit more time here and if the music starts going and I fail to catch it just I'll I'll scream at you for these uh Hey Stan, I before I where I live where I live now I I told you my house in westlake sold for 1.9 million that I paid 33 thousand for 1966 But uh, that didn't make any but my house here in tuson in this little area where we lived near their foothills We haven't had a home for sale here in three and a half months And that's there's 80 homes in this subdivision and that's the first time since these were built in 1979 That there's not been at least three or four homes for sale and my real estate guy is He said the old people can't forward to sell it because they can't move any place else because to buy another house is 8% And I think that makes a case for it. Uh, yeah, and I and I think That phenomenon is present not only in the tuson area, but I think it's it's that way nation nation mind Uh, this is the case shiller data For folks who may not know just came out this morning. It comes out the last tuesday of each month And uh, this is the data for the national index Well, they got a little typo in there, but it's data through september 2023 And as you can see the national index Just made a new all-time high the the blue data points represent monthly Data points as reported by tation shiller and then the red Is an 18 month moving average of the raw data A simple buy sell indicator very very simple, but it works Take note of where the monthly data in blue crosses either above or below The 18 month moving average in red You've got a very simple but very effective buy sell signal in real estate And you can see so a months ago. We pulled back We kissed the 18 month moving average, but did not break below it So that's a day to instill northbound And indeed it is However comma Having said that Some Divertances are starting to pop up Here is data for the west coast market the los angeles market, which is I believe the largest in the nation Um Oh, I see yeah Note some divergence with the nationally has not made a new high yet has not made a new high Clang clang clang clang The professor is up in the front of the room stopping his foot on the floor. This will be on the exam Yeah Hey, we got it. We got a few people stay with us stan. I want to go through some more slides We'll be right back with stan harley folks a harley stock market letter stay with us, please another three minutes to go If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter You should try tom. 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Please continue my friend well, I thought I just emphasize the fact that I think we're getting some type of divergent structure in the uh in the case Schiller data And uh, I've been saying from some time that I thought this time period that we're in right now would be associated with a cyclical high in real estate And I think we're in the process of making that right now the national index Just with the most recent data went to a new all-time high But we're starting to see some divergences And you'll see los angeles metro index did not go to a new high in fact it didn't take out the high from a month ago So it's flattening out and it looks like it's uh developing a divergent market peak with a national index You can think of the case schiller data just like we do with the stock market Look for divergences We've got 10 of the major metro markets And as well as 27 regional major market indices with the with the case schiller data Compare that with the national data and uh And and and look for divergences and that will give you an indication while we're making the top now or the bottom now Real estate. I know uh, it's something a lot of people focus on even on this channel here on tfm Your your best friend because of the power of leverage Uh, but it can obviously be your worst enemy going the other way It looks to me like things are looking a little tommy Looks like an abcd pattern to me folks Okay Come low to high and there it is abcd. Hey listen Thanks for joining us my friend and have a wonderful holiday We're going to have you on again really soon before the end of the year, of course So be safe over there and travel safe back to uh, virginia. Okay I shall indeed. Yeah, sorry. I missed you this time if I had more time to get up there I would but you're leaving a guest tomorrow. I guess so we'll catch you soon. Okay Right Okay, thank you very much stan stan harley folks of the harley stock market better We'll see you folks uh on the flip side tomorrow with our guest is joey d napple Also a friend of stan harley. So we'll see you all later folks. Bye. Bye