 Cymru i wych yn y ddechrau Cymru, sydd yn y ffynishio'r ddechrau i ddechrau'r ddechrau, a'r ddechrau'r ddechrau sy'n ddim yn y ddechrau cyffredinol. Wel mae'r format yw'r thymau arwain, mae'r cyfnodnod yn drwy dŵr cyfnodwyr ar y eu cyfnodd. Mae'r eich cyfnodd, os yw'r cyfnodd honno'r cyfnodd yng nghyd-fyrd ac yn ysgoledr yma. Mae'r ysgoledr yn apio. Mae'r ysgoledr yn ysgoledr yn 2021, yna i'r ysgoledr cyfnodd a'r ysgoledr cyfnodd ynghylch. a bywda'r ffordd o'r analys o'r cyfreithio'r cyflwynisi awddento'r cyflwynisi. A'r cyflwynisi awdd Scotland段 iawn llawer i'w cyflwynisi awdd IntoTV sy'n rhynau Ymgwrs ddim yn edrych y ddiweddio ar y Covid-19, ac mae'r cyflwystiaeth i gyffredin i gweithio'r cyflwynisi. Rhaid, yna'r cyflwynisi awdd yn gweithio'r cyflwynisi awdd nad oedd y cyflwynisi awdd o'n cyflwynisi awdd ar gyfer gweithio'r cyflwynisi awdd. So Stuart, rydym yn ymlaen i gael. Rhywodol, rydym yn gallu i'r madyn yn ddylocir yn y ddwyg, dyma'r ddrech. Mae wedi bod yn ymlaen i'r lleidol. Mae'r llwyddiad yma, Stuart Napier. Mae'r ddweud i'r ddweud i'r ddweud i'r ddwylo gyda'r anolidau yn y Gweithgawr. have not been there for nearly three years now and in that time quite a lot has happened but also not happened in the sense that Covid suspended the abilities to carry out our face to face interviews and the Scottish crime injustice survey field work was paused. But the results I'm going to present today can mark the end of that adjustment process and these are the first set of results that we have since Covid, so just to give you yna'r bwysig o'r arddangos ar y srfeno, os yn ystod am gweithio. Felly я'n dda i'n ddim gweithio ag yw'r gynhyrch squaddiad. Erw nesaf am ddysgu femkin ar gyfer se Auntie's, fe gweld pan nhw'n ei gwybod arweithio llanff�byddol oherwydd eogel gw'r bwysig o'r ddysgu ar fy hwyl, ac e'n rhaid ato gwythiadtyn i'w ddefnyddio yn ei ddweud. Pwy o'r arddangos ar y srfeno, ond mae'n lleol os ymlaen o'r bwysig ar y tafnod, A oe'r ceiswch ar dda, nid oes rydw i'r cyfrifio cyfloghau 10 oes yn cyfryd 15 oed, i'n gwybod yr unig o'r gwirio cyfloghau o'r cyfrifio cyfloghau o'r 100,000 oes gwybr hwnnw. Felly, o'r cyfrifio cyfrifio cyfrifio o'r cyfrifio cyfrifio yn cyfwilio cwbl yn rhan o'r cyfrifio. The structure and format will be familiar to many of you in the sense that the SCJS is a nationally representative survey of adults across all of Scotland, and in the latest sweep we conducted just over 5,500 interviews. We measure two broad categories of crime, which is violent and property crime, but third will be coming with the next release, where we'll have the first results of our fraud module. I should just note that when I say violent crime, this refers to non-sexual violence. The separate self-completion section is where we do gather data on sexual offences, as well as other more sensitive topics like partner abuse, drug use and stalking and harassment. We also ask respondents their opinions and attitudes towards many crime injustice related issues, such as the police. So, a kind of timeline of recent results published in 2021, the 1920 SCJS was the last pre-COVID survey, which was the end of a four-year continuous run of releases, and was still the most recently available data until a couple of months ago. During the time where COVID restrictions were in place and face-to-face interviewing was suspended, we launched a telephone survey and we conducted that to fill a data gap left by the suspension of interviews. But once we were getting the go-ahead to resume our fieldwork, the 21-22 SCJS began in November 21, with the results being published at the end of last year in November, of which most of the findings today will focus on. And right now we're still conducting interviews for the following survey, which we'll be wrapping up just in a couple of months, and we'll cover the 23-24 period. So going straight into the results of our latest survey, the main overall headline finding is that we continue to see a long-term reduction, both in the volume of crime scene as well as the prevalence of victimisation amongst the population. We estimate that just under half a million crimes were experienced by the Scottish population, which represents a decline of over half since the start of the current form of SCJS just over 15 years ago. Similarly, a smaller proportion of adults were the victim of a crime, with a prevalence rate of exactly 10% estimated, which is again down by over half since 2008-9. But as we all know, crime is not experienced evenly across the whole population, and these findings tell us that we saw higher victimisation rates for younger people at 15%, disabled people at 13%. We also saw higher victimisation for people living in the most deprived areas and those living in an urban area when compared to the relevant comparative group. So this long-term reduction is reflected elsewhere. We see that SCJS and CSCW track fairly closely over the long term, and now pretty much in an identical position with the latest findings. I think, in fact, the results that CSCW published a couple of weeks ago also found a prevalence rate of exactly 10.0%, so definitely very similar pictures on both sides of the border. If we look at what types of crime were recorded in the latest findings, we again find that the majority of crime detected is property crime at nearly three quarters of all crime. Within these categories, we find that the most commonly seen type of violent crime is minor assault, followed by attempted assault, and we see much lower prevalence for the more serious types, such as robbery or serious assault. In terms of property crime, it's a bit more evenly spread amongst different types, with vandalism and other household theft found to be the most common here. Focusing a bit more on violent crime, as with all crime, it's seen a long-term reduction over the last 15 or so years, both in terms of the volume, which is down by 58%, and the proportion of adults estimated to have experienced violence is more than half, and it's now down to under one in 50 adults. In the last year, by having an interesting finding, we saw a statistically significant reduction in the prevalence of violence, so the proportion of people who had experienced it, but not the volume of incidents estimated. So this suggests that perhaps with violent crime it's becoming even more concentrated towards high volume repeat victims, rather than being more evenly spread across the whole population. In terms of the profile of these incidents, we see that the vast majority feature a male perpetrator, and in over a third of incidents, the perpetrator is under the influence of alcohol. And just under one in five, it's reported that a weapon was involved, and in the most recent findings just under a third came to the attention of the police. This may appear low, and it is a bit of a reduction from previous years, but I'll pick this up in more detail in a few slides. Looking within groups, this is a similar story to all crime. We only find one difference when it comes to violent crime, and that is that younger people are more likely to experience violence than any other age. You can see the graph in the top right showing the change in violence prevalence for 16 to 24-year-olds, and over time it's reduced by nearly a factor. A similar reduction, or no reduction at all, has been seen in the other age groups. This may indicate a generational effect when it comes to how violence is experienced. We can see a similar story in terms of the perpetrators of violence, and noticeable shifts can be seen in the age profile. 15 or so years ago, the peak age group of offenders was 16 to 24, but now the proportion of offenders is gradually increasing with age. So it's quite a radical shift in the profile of offenders in the last 15 or so years. So whether or not this does indicate a genuine generational effect is quite difficult for us to say. We could still do some analysis to determine if violence is typically perpetrated and experienced between people of similar ages. Straight away this might seem like quite an insurative finding given that in nearly a third of cases the violence was experienced. The perpetrator of the violence was the current or former partner of the victim, and many of the other commonly seen categories are someone known to the victim as well. Moving on to look at property crime, a similar story to all crime, given it makes up the majority of all crime. We see long term reductions in both the volume and prevalence of property crime, falling by more than half again since 1989. The same groups as all crime are the ones that are more likely to experience property crime, so that's younger people, disabled people, people who live in deprived areas and people who live in urban areas. One of the other main modules we ask about is perceptions of crime and safety, and kind of echoing the long term reduction in crime detected. We see long term reductions in crime and how people perceive the crime rate in their local area. So people continue to perceive the crime rate more positively, with a higher proportion of people believing that it's either gone down or stayed the same within the last two years. But it's still processed that people are a bit more negative about crime nationally compared to crime in their local area. In terms of feelings of safety, again a continuation of a long standing scene trend, where people are feeling more safe, but at the same time there does remain quite a significant gap between males and females in terms of how safe they feel. So like I said I was going to move on to talk about crime reported to the police. So the last few slides have kind of been a continuation of previously seen trends, but a couple of these areas have changed quite significantly from the previous findings. So the first that I'll talk about is the reporting of crimes to the police. And as you can see in the 21-22 data we found a sharp drop in the proportion of crimes that came to the attention of the police, which is now down to the lowest figure in our time series since just 29% of crimes being reported to the police. At this point it's just a one-off result, so whether or not this continues remains to be seen. And we'll monitor this going forward to see if this is just a shock to the reporting rate or it will continue in this way. But a couple of reasons that we might exercise caution when looking at this is firstly, while it's a great thing that crime is decreasing overall, it does mean that now we have fewer people to actually interview who have been the victim of the crime. So our estimates are based on fewer or less data, and it makes it more prone to fluctuations and a bit more volatile. The second reason for caution is that we're not seeing a comparable drop in police-recorded crime in Scotland. If there was such a significant drop in SCGS crimes that were reported to the police, we would see a similar size drop to police-recorded crime. We're kind of seeing that police-recorded crime is pretty steady over the last couple of years in Scotland. One reason that this might have happened is that people behaved different during the pandemic. So a reference period for these results does cover time periods where COVID restrictions were in place. We kind of have two sources of data to look at that. The first is the telephone survey and also these findings. But both of these indicate that COVID restrictions were not really a significant factor in why someone may have reported their crime to the police. So it's quite hard to estimate if COVID was really at play with this given the data we have available. But the suggestion is that perhaps it wasn't the main reason. Another reason we can look at is whether the type of crime that we've picked up has changed over time. We've maybe seen the biggest drop in the reporting for violent crime, which fell by 14 percentage points. Last week we discussed some of these findings with some academics. Susan McVie, who some of you may know are fairly prominent Scottish criminologist, suggested that this might be due to the fact that the severity of violence has decreased. Naturally people are less likely to report something that they perceive to be less serious. And we do collect information on how serious the victim thinks the incident was. And we do intend to look at this and find out if this was a reason for why there was a drop in police reporting. Interestingly, we did see a large drop in the proportion of violent crimes reported to the police with a female victim. And this nearly halved since the last survey, but the same necessarily wasn't seen for male victims. There was a reduction, but not to the same extent as female victims. We don't know exactly why this might be, and it would be interesting to hear from some of you whether or not your data or your research kind of indicates that maybe female victims of crime might be less likely to report to the police. But when asked why they didn't report a violent crime to the police, the most common given reasons for both males and females was that they either dealt with the matter themselves, they felt it was a private matter, not something to be brought to the attention of the police, or that they believe the police wouldn't have bothered with the incident, or either that they've had previous bad experience when dealing with the police. These last two points are quite interesting. Again, this is based on quite a small number of responses. This is something that moves about quite a lot year to year, but it did lead me to think whether people have started to feel differently about the police, and that may link in with the lower reporting rate. So that's the other area I'd like to focus on. It's a fairly complex question to answer around to what extent, if any, people feel less confident in the police from one survey source. But what we can say is that the SCJS proportion estimates in isolation have decreased quite consistently for confidence in the police. We see people answering that they're less confident in the police to carry out their duties and are less likely to think that they act fairly or engage well with the community. Now, as you can see on the right hand graph, most of these measures exhibit a sort of arc shape. We're confident it's peaked around 2013 before tailing off in recent years, and some have returned back to their baseline level in 2008-9. But this isn't really a unique finding just in Scotland and just with the police. I looked at the crime survey for England Wales and see that they have also found a decrease in some of their policing measures. And other sources in Scotland, such as the Household Survey, also find a fall in satisfaction with other public services such as healthcare, schools and public transport. So I suggest that it's not necessarily just a policing issue. There could be any number of factors that shape people's attitudes when answering these types of questions. There's been large socioeconomic, macroeconomic factors that affect budgeting of police, other public services have obviously had funding cut back in recent things. But other more specific things that we've seen over the last few years, things like the Black Lives Matter movement and other news stories such as the Sarah Everard case, things like this really bring policing into focus for a large number of people. Even if it didn't happen locally in Scotland, these things may still impact people's attitudes and that may manifest in how they answer these types of questions in a survey. But we're not exactly able to pinpoint the exact reasons for why these decreases have taken place. So like I mentioned, it's a complex question to answer. We don't always have a definitive answer to it. But it does serve as a useful reminder that there's always a lot of nuance and context behind these statistics. And producing and publishing them remain crucial in allowing these discussions to happen. So the impact of COVID, just to say that this did happen during some COVID restrictions, but this was the first back to regular uninterrupted publications to come. We did use a mixed mode approach to this. Sorry, I'll have to wrap up a bit quickly. In short, we believe that this mixed mode had a minimal impact on the findings. We did retain the national statistics badge and consultation with the statistics regulator. So we're still confident that these results were of the highest quality. But the next speaker, Chris, is going to speak a lot more on the work he did to investigate this impact. So just lastly, changes for the future. As I said, the next service field work is wrapping up. This features two major changes. Firstly, the partner abuse module has been updated with more of a focus on violence against women and girls issues. It brings it in line with new legislation to better capture instances of coercive control. And like I say, there's a new fraud and computer misuse module much in the same vein as CSCW. Beyond that, it all starts again and we'll be going back into the field for the 24-25 survey in April. So yeah, let's stop there and say thank you for your attention, welcome any questions.