 Thank you and welcome to the CMC Markets Monday weekly webinar with myself David Madden market analyst at CMC Markets The time is 12 15 on Monday the 31st of July I'm just going to leave the risk warning to sit here on the screen in front of you You better before I'm sure and if you especially if you are a regular Viewer or a listener to our webinars. It's nothing you haven't seen before but compliance Prefer that we run through the risk warning screen before we actually proceed with the webinar itself So I'll just leave this on screen here for a number of seconds before we kick off the actual webinar So thank you very much for paying it for Already through the risk warning. Let's actually kick off the webinar itself properly now As usual because of long time we go through is similar to what we normally do We live a quick discussion a quick chat about what's happened over the weekend And then more importantly, we have a look at what is due out for the week ahead And then after that we've been the bulk of the webinar looking at the most popular markets and What also what price movements could we see for the next few trading days? So that what taking a look over the weekend what we saw out of China was we had some better than it We had some what we had some manufacturing numbers out of China Which came in slightly below expectations and showed that in July the manufacturing sector in China grew per crew at a slower rate What that means is that the markets are interpreting this as it's not amazing news that they came in slightly Expectations and it's not fantastic news that it showed it showed as the slower growth rate But nonetheless we have seen a push higher in the price of high-grade copper and in the back of that We also seen a positive move in mining companies So you like severe Rio Tinto out of a gas to the Chile the Chilean mining copper mining company Basically building Rio Tinto and the American have all done quite well out of that Also over the and this morning what we witnessed HSBC at some good first-half numbers Major British Bank with a very much a far Eastern focus HSBC posted but better than that posted a rise in first-half profits, which came in ahead of analysts expectations on top of that their common equity tier one ratio rose For the in the last 12 months compared to the first half of 2016 Which basically tells us that the banks of equity is in a better shape now than it was back then granted It wasn't a very good shape back then it's just even in a better shape now and to prove Just how much of a strong financial position HSBC are in they've actually managed to go up and out a Two billion dollar share buyback scheme to hope hope to complete by the end of this year Keeping in mind. This is July is only back in February the HSBC embarked on a one billion dollar HSB Share buyback scheme So close to show you how confident they are that they managed to improve their liquidity ratio Which essentially is a test should we see a major downturn in the economy? Unemployment rises bad loans take up asset falling value How would a major bank hold up under that? hypothetical scenario And HSBC are in such a strong position that only have they increased having proved their liquidity positions They've managed to actually go ahead and actually increase a bring in a share buyback scheme only a few months after and also another one Also this morning. We saw some data out of the of the UK broadly speaking it was mixed in terms of the Number of mortgages the amount of mortgages that were pumped out the money supply and also the actual credit lines to UK consumer confidence to the UK to the UK public By an energy was mixed more wages the number of individual mortgages came in slightly for low expectations, but if you actually take a look at the actually the amount that was actually That was actually put out In the time period it actually did actually increase looking at look taking a look at Eurozone data the CPI numbers The both the CPI and also the core CPI and the unemployment numbers If you want to wonder where you can find economic indicators on a platform go to mark a pulse fourth option down market calendar I'll give you a rundown of the major economic indicators And what I came in that first is what the previous month was and also what versus what they were expected So turning our attention here to the consumer CPI numbers from the Eurozone Give it a 1.3% the headlight number in my expectations unchanged on the month Looking at the unemployment unemployment dropped from 9.3% to 9.1% and bearing in mind I did also see we were expecting a decline to only 9.2 so that given that I expected on that front Turning our attention now to what can we expect for the rest of the trading week? So on our website under the news and analysis section you could see here We get a breakdown you can turn our attention to the weekly earnings calendar start winning week commencing the 31st of July 2017 so what are the big things they would watch out for a week ahead of us well tomorrow We have the third quarter earnings from Apple We've also have the first half update from BP We've we've a reserve Bank of Australia have a rate meeting to be honest We're not really expecting any change in their policy on Thursday. We have the bank of the great decision No change is to be expected but bearing in mind At the last meeting three of the bank of the members voted to raise in to raise interest rates that be adding on top of that Currently Forbes one of one of one of those hawks has now departed So we could see that falling back to on two of the of the members Voting for a raise in interest rates on Friday We have a update from rollback of Scotland and also Friday being the first Friday of the month We will also have the US data of the jobs data the non-farm payrolls So let's have a look at how the markets have been for me major markets have been performing throughout the morning session So starting off with the footsie 100 bearing in mind we did have Quite a poor finish to last week on the on the footsie 100 So you can see now we have pushed higher in early morning trading But we have managed to give up some of those gains yet again So as you can see here after hitting a record high in June for basically the last eight weeks two months pretty much non-stop The footsie has been broadly been pushing lower Now taking a look here We can see that we're off the lows of last week But same time you have to have it managed to kind of have it managed to kind of push back up North of the 50 day moving average at 7,450 if you can look here that we think it's quite clear that the momentum and this upward move here is Actually been waning or we've actually not going to swung to negative territory in terms of momentum So the next level to watch out for for the footsie is going to be to the downside support at 7,295 Which corresponds with the lows from late June Are going to be the levels levels to watch out for to the downside for the footsie 100 And should we move south of that we then be looking towards 7,200 itself Any rallied in the footsie 100 are going to be encountered In around this this place actually here of 7,439 up to the 50 day moving average at 7,450 This area here is going to act as resistance to any rallies I should be but we should be pushed north of that the next level to watch out for it's going to be the resistance From this level here in July In 21st of July at 7,515 It's a bit of a worst date over in Germany returning our attention now to what's been going on in the DAX The part broadly speaking Europe US equity markets are in better shape than the European markets and Which really now further to that and again The UK markets is in better shape than the calculated European markets The eurozone markets are definitely in a worse shape and especially that the chart is a bit more worrying about what we're seeing here in the UK Similar enough situation to the UK with the the Germany 30 the DAX went on to create a record high In june But has been pushing lower since then creating a lower low a lower high and then we're pushing down to a new lower low We seem to be kind of running out of steam to the downside here But the next level to watch out for on the DAX is going to be to support at 12,095 And then move below that we then bring the support at 11,941 on the cards And then should we move south of that again? Chairs you're looking towards a two-day moving average 11,851 Notice how as the market is falling off here We are seeing an increase in negative momentum as a negative momentum is still very much in the red at the moment But should we see any pushes higher in the germany 30? We could look to we could we could see fresh bought by Fresh bought selling and there's to be keep an eye on for this potential resistance level Is this this low here or from early july at 12,343? and then again also at the 100 a moving average at 12,435 And then you can see the 50 moving average sits in around 12,500 These are all levels to watch out for should we see a bounce back In the DAX bearing in mind the trend for the last number of weeks that's a couple of months has been to the downside Over in the united states equity markets are looking in a far better shape there Record closed for the Dow on Friday. It just seems to be kind of record after record for what's been going on in the united states Looking at the Dow here as you can see here It's been in a very clear upward trend for the last number of months for the Dow Jones And you could have pullbacks could find support in around the 12th 2000 sorry 21,800 region and also 21,700 region We can see that momentum is in a positive way Positive momentum is increasing so it can give us confirmation We can be more confident in the the upward move is going to continue Should we see any declines in the index or should we see any declines in the actual momentum itself? That's when you've got to get slightly worried But for the time being it appears that the we've seen a very popular strategy of buying the dips on the US 30 on the Dow Jones has been very common very popular with some traders Similar situation, but not as rosy for the s&p 500 It's been going on to last week. We saw a series of record highs being created. So that's the It's the same chart yet again. Unfortunately. Let's grab the s&p now Here we have it now Broadly speaking s&p is in quite a good shape Went on to create record highs last week But we did see a slight hailing up in the price of the s&p 500 towards the back end of the week What's also slightly worrying though is how we see a decline in positive momentum And this is when we're seeing prices hitting record highs But while the market is momentum is declining It could be an early indication that we could see a decent size reasonable size pullback When price from prices that are continued to push higher but momentum is going lower That's what's called a divergence And it's almost like if a runner is continuing on Running a 10 kilometer race and they're they're continuing to ratchet up a Increase in their distance from kilometer four to five to six to seven But the rate at which they're running at is actually slowing down So it's like we're seeing that in the s&p 500 the market has gone on to print All-time highs new all-time highs, but yet the rate of which is doing that is slowing down. So This could be an early indication that we could see Uh a reasonable size pullback in the s&p 500 bearing in mind the big picture is very It's very clearly pointing towards a solid upward trend So I would let this this would necessarily negate the big picture upward trend that we've seen It just means we could see a recent a decent size pullback At air is to be watching out for to the downside for the s&p 500 What would be two two thousand four hundred and sixty two thousand four hundred and fifty and two thousand four hundred and forty bearing in mind If we do see this in momentum turn negative We could be looking ahead more down towards the fifth day moving average at two thousand four hundred and forty for the s&p The nasdaq is in a pretty good shape not only last week It was going on a printing record and that's like 100 printing record highs not too uncommon Very kind of in line with what's been going on in the united states Similarish looking chart and really in respect to we can see a going the market is going on to print new all-time highs Be worrying slightly worryingly. We are seeing a decline in in positive momentum So it could be an indication that this bull run is sort of running out of steam Kind of honest last legs not to say the market is going to completely turn over I have a massive crash just that we could see a reasonable size pullback But they can a bigger picture the long-term view is still very much to the upside So the bigger picture is that bulls we've been looking towards kind of 6000 level We should be see pullbacks We could see them in this this this price would be the first one to watch here at 5,848 and then 5,800 self and then we look into words 5,700 should we see a reasonably reasonably large Pullback in the nasdaq 100 Turning attention now to what's been going on in the gold market Gold had a decent finish on friday given what was what has gone on in the us The us growth figures the figure the growth figures for the united states in the second half came in at 2.6 percent buying in line with market expectations But in the first half in the first quarter of the year of the growth was originally Declared to be at 1.4 percent But that was then revised low to 1.2 percent when traders saw that it took the pick their cues out We're we're less likely to see a rate rise from the federal reserve In 2017 another one from the federal reserve in 2017 going into the meeting traders are already We're very much just Undecided whether we're going to see another rate hike from the federal reserve this year on the back of that They're becoming more even in decisive and and and there's actually there's actually now There's actually now kind of a quite large quite large debate Are we going to see another rate rise from the fade this year a lot of traders out there in the market? Don't think we are and that's been reflected in the upward move in the price of gold So as you can see here gold has been in a fairly consistent and steady upward trend For the last about three weeks It's running through this trend line here Which if you if you connect the the low from december with the lows of may we can see here that it was That it the trend line was broken and I was going to run back up into that region here. So Surely you're going to continue to move north of that The next move the next ever to watch out for and gold is going to be 1280 And then we're looking towards the june high which is also the 2017 high of 1296 Any moves lower in the price of gold we could be looking to get support in rather 50 day moving average Which comes into play around the same price as the one-day moving average at 1250 and then below that We'd be looking to we look toward this price here at 1240 three per gold Notice how as the price of gold is pushing higher We can see a fairly steady increase in positive momentum It hasn't it hasn't really made additional gains on the gains it made from The 21st of july 10 days ago, but notice how while the price is moving higher momentum is also going to ever so slightly creeping higher as well That's a gold market covered now. We're keeping with the commodities team We will now have a look over what's going on in the old market bearing in mind on friday The baker who's recount report showed the number of active rigs in the united states increased by two to seven hundred and 66 rigs granted in percentage terms. It's a very very small increase in in in recounts But it's just something to be to be mindful of rigs and and rig counted in the in the in the nights from the baker's use report Three reports of the last in the last month four out of the top four Total of four showed that rig counts has been rising in the united states Given what what has gone on in the price in in relation to opec and Saudi Arabia's pledged to curb their their oil exports Nigeria has come into the fold and and I stated that they would actually volunteer voluntarily comply with the coordinated production cost that opec have Also alongside some non opec members on top of that And there's been a wider call within the opec countries opec members to actually comply with the Coordinated production cost because once after it's announced in late may there wasn't a whole lot of of Um of people of countries and member states complying with it throughout june We saw a major sell-off In in june, but then we see all bounce back and now we see a continuation of the market pushing higher So we keep for looking at price action on on brent here We can see here the next step of the watch off board of the upside is going to be the 53 dollars barrel 53 dollars per barrel mark and north of that we've been looking towards the high from may Which comes at this price here at 54 55 roughly and then north of that again traders are then going to be looking towards april high Well 56 55 Notice how as you can see here We've seen that the price of oil push higher it's managed to take off various oil supports Currently now acting resistance Moves north of the 50th moving average the 100 day moving average is providing support here at 50 dollars and 47 cents And then it's taken it's moved north on friday of the 30 moving average It's obviously quite a bullish indicator in itself any any pushes lower in oil and the uh any uh moves lower We could see support coming to play at the fifth at the 30 moving average at 21 Sorry 51 62 and then below that at the one of the moving average at 50 dollars and 49 cents As you can see here the last few sessions have shown an increase in price and also an increase in momentum So you can more confident of that that the kind of momentum is with the bulls Turning attention now. We're going to see a very similar looking chart for wti Given that the two largely move in step with each other Similar situation here last friday wti the price of west texas intermediate crude went north of the 200 day moving average And now we're still holding above that level so any pullbacks in wti could find support at the 30 moving average at 40 49 dollars and 44 cents Below that we could see here that the one of the moving average provided support Last wednesday at 47 dollars and 74 cents And then of course if you would see quite a large tracement We could see support coming to play at 46 dollars and 34 cents at the 50 day moving average To the upside because seeing as that momentum is clearly to the upside for for uh for wti 50 dollars is probably the big kind of psychological number to watch out for And then we'll be looking towards bulls to be looking then towards the may high of 51 dollars and 66 cents Then of course 52 dollars per barrel and then north of that again bulls will be looking towards 53 dollars and 56 cents Turning our attention now to the major currency pairs The euro versus the u.s. Dollar has been a very solid upward trend for the last all all way throughout 2017 Where we are getting very very close to august august kicks off tomorrow And bearing in mind at the jackson hall symposium mario drake is due to to deliver a speech in which is in late august And it's widely speculated that mario drake the president of the european central bank Is going to talk at very least lay the ground worker to talk about The european central bank potentially may be Reducing the size of their bond buying scheme which currently lasts which is currently at 60 billion euros per month The speculation that mario drake is going to lay the ground work for that to be reduced Not to say that he'll actually call an announcement and a reduction immediately Just he could potentially prep traders in advance The ecb are altering their language of ecb are Contemplating changes to their monetary policy or the bond buying scheme This is our language we need to look out for But the euro versus that the u.s. Dollar has been in a very clear and and consistent upward trend throughout 2017 buying the pullbacks Has been the a very popular strategy with traders on this particular currency pair for the last number of months The 118 level is to the upside is going to be the next big level to watch out for Seeing as it coincides with the 200 day moving average here should be Moved north of the 200 day moving average and beyond that the next big psychological number to watch out for is they're going to be the 120 Mark on the euro versus the u.s. Dollar and any pullbacks we see in this currency pair We keep looking for support at the in at the 117 region and then also below that 116 16 and then south of that again in the 114 79 area Taking a look now at the pound versus the u.s. Dollar bearing on mine It's going to be a big week for the pound versus the u.s. Dollar this week Seeing as as you have an update from the bank of England on thursday And with the non-farm payroll figures on friday amongst other economic data but those are by far If you're trading this currency pair, you do need to be very much aware of what was a of those two big economic events We were comfortably above the kind of 131 level at the moment traders looking towards the the resistance At 131 59 and then north of that we've been looking towards 132 Any pullbacks in the pound versus the greenback could find support in around the 131 region and then 130 47 and then below that again in the 129 77 120 129 region itself It hasn't been in as a as a solid a consistent A solid and consistent upper trend As the euro versus the u.s. Dollar, but what I can say is that it has in broadly been pushing higher throughout 2017 Pound has been gaining ground versus the dollar throughout 2017 Looking at now euro sterling because of all this speculation that the european central bank is going to Look to these talk about potentially tapering the size of the multi bond buying scheme The euro has formed quite well and of course this is the two feed each other feeding each other We have some we have some we've seen a decent recovery in the in the euro zone Which is brought about this increased speculation of the of the european central bank Potentially reducing the size of the bond buying schemes all the way throughout 2017 Particularly from april onwards. We've seen decent economic indicators out of the euro zone And it reflected here in the actual upward move in the currency pair So a similar situation we've been looking towards 90 cents to the upside for the euro versus the versus the british pound Any pullbacks we've been looking for support in this price action here just shy of 89 at 88 91 And then we'll also be looking south of that again at 88 88 Sorry, yes, 88 80 With the next support ever below that again, and then we've been looking towards 88 32 for the euro versus the british pound North north of 90 cents. We will then looking towards the october 2016 high of of 90 basically 90 50 will be the next ever to watch out for beyond 90 cents. Sorry 90 90 pence For the euro versus the british pound having a look now at the US dollar versus the japanese yen For the last basically 12 12 july it's been in a fairly clear it's this is going to downward trend And as you can see the price and a grinding lower here because the perception is the united states isn't going to raise rates again in 2017 That's that's a large portion of traders believe given Especially in light of the lower of the revised gdp numbers for the first quarter of of 2017 So we're pushing lower In the uh in the dollar versus the japanese yen We can see that momentum is clearly in a negative side with no indication That's going to swing positive anytime soon We're currently at 110 55 on the dollar yen So the support here at 110 30 is going to be the next level to watch out for to the downside And then below that we've been looking towards 109 and 108 region here Should we see any kind of pullbacks? In the uh the dollar versus the japanese yen We could be looking for resistance in around this this price action here Where they put the 50 moving average and the 180 moving average sort of coincide with each other Which is in the kind of 111 50 region and then it should be moved north of that We could also see the the 200 a moving average acting as As a stumbling back to any 20 moves higher and the one of the 200 moving average is at 112 18 As I mentioned we have a an update from the reserve bank of australia during the week uh tomorrow We're expecting on interest rates to remain unchanged But given that we've seen positive economic indicators out of the out of the australia and also co at the same time We've also seen some not so hard economic indicators from the united states We have seen the we have seen the uh a tremendous push higher in the ozzie dollar As we can see here looking at the weekly chart we can see here On friday it managed actually to trade north of the 200 200 week moving average Which is obviously something something's obviously in itself is quite a Quite a bullish indicator. We're currently back load below that level at the moment But the trend on the australian dollar versus the u.s. Dollar Basically, what's all all the way throughout 2017 and even beyond that has actually been very much to the upside It's once we kind of turn the corner from december 2016 onwards. It's been in a very kind of clear and concise upward trend Also, what I will point out though is that we are seeing a decline in momentum and it's a bit concerning that when you see Uh markets go out to hit multi month highs and multi year highs, but at the same time momentum is dwindling It could be a sign that the the bulls and the buyers are running running out of steam a bit Uh what we could see is you could see you have a pullback towards again at the 79 region Or we could we could see some support come into play At 78 78 itself or then down toward this price action here up between 78 34 and 77 86 So just be mindful I'll not only be probably aware that We've kind of ran into resistance at the tuner week moving average on the australian dollar But also that momentum is declining so that we could see a bit of a We could see some of the buyers and the bulls taking a bit of a breather And we could see the currency pair hand back some of the some of the ground data has made but Seeing us that we're at multi month highs and you know multi year highs We are the big picture is to the upside for the australian dollar So traders who are who are buyers of this currency pair will first and foremost be looking towards 80 65 to the upside Um and then beyond that we'll be looking towards 81 and then 82 on terms of the actual levels to watch out for The dollar card are the other other big currency commodity as uh has been in play recently given the Given what's been going on in regarding the perception that the united states isn't going to raise rates interest rates again in 2017 It's in a very much bearish move here for the last number of weeks and months All so you can see here that negative momentum is very much increasing So the outlook still remains to be very negative for the us dollar versus the canadian dollar This is not now it's looking at it. I'm a daily chart So we can see that the market is grinding lower And we can see a bit of bright we can see We can see here that there's quite a large positive candle here Um and we can see the market is kind of looking to kind of turn itself around on top of that Negative momentum is slowly but surely decreasing. So the rate of which the market is pushing lower is coming to Is declining? So this could be a sign of that we could like to see a bit of a turnaround in this currency pair I should we see a bit of a bit of a bounce back in this currency pair The initial level to the upside that we've been looking out for will be 125 76 And then we'll be looking towards the 127 region in around here 126 88 127 itself and then traders will then be looking towards this price this price here The uh the the low from the 7th of february at 128 59 But the big picture is still very much to the downside for the us dollar canadian dollar Just after a clock in here at the time it has just gone Uh, it's just gone 12 or 46. Uh, so If you've any markets you'd like me to cover that I haven't mentioned please feel free uh to shout them out I just also want to take this opportunity to kind of point out on our on our trading platform Whereabouts you can find our updates? Um, you could see here that on the chart forum, which if you go in from markup pulse And click on the third option down markup forum myself another analyst Will that will ask uh, we'll post our updates in terms of um, what we think what we think are look to appear to be Interesting charts. This is all going to be here on the chart forum. This is going to be this is updated Uh, several times a day every single day Here on the right hand side is our market insights So some of our news analysis gets put on the inside section. Uh, as you can see here, we got Some this this is the best place to look out for updates in terms of economic indicators So as soon as economic indicators come out here at 10 o'clock heroes on numbers They were then put up on our website on the on this at at um At six minutes past 10 So I just got to show you how fast we are at actually posting numbers In terms of economic indicators not all some of our some of our Our news updates get posted on inside all this one gets shared on the news and analysis section in here Some are actually on both. Uh, so you will see a crossover between the two Also, uh, seeing as you manage to sign up for this webinar Uh, bearing in mind, uh, as I mentioned, it is not the first Friday of the month is coming up Which means it is non-farm payrolls So in terms of what we can look ahead to other webinars, um coming up on Friday the fourth Of august this friday coming. We will be hosting our non-farm payrolls payrolls webinar It kicks off at Quarter past one BST bird of summer time quarter past one london time the number of the set obviously come out at half past the hour So please feel free to sign up for that Seeing as we've had no we've had no comments In relation to Up any markets that you would like me to look at I'm now going to end the webinar here And I would like to thank you for myself and for all of us here at CMC markets Uh, have a good trading week and best of luck