 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 12th of November 2018 And the time has just gone at 9 20 GMT It's been a fairly mixed start to the session here in Europe. Most European equity markets are lower The FTSE 100 is slightly higher this morning though The main news all of Europe this week is going to be Italy The Italian government and Brussels are sort of loggerheads over the Italian government Planned increase of the budget deficit. So essentially the European Union rejected Italy's initial proposal to increase the budget budget deficit So the ball has been passed back to Rome and they have until tomorrow to resubmit new budgets to the European Union and it sounds to me like the Italian government have no intention of actually changing or making any drastic changes to the proposals So that that is is the case If you have the Brussels if you want to actually pursue a punishment for for the Italian government in the forms of financial fines But given that Italy is such an as such enormous government bond market It's a third largest government bond market in the world any kind of upheaval Upheaval could push the Italian government bond yields higher and put pressure at the Italian banking system And that could potentially trigger another round of the eurozone debt crisis also also going on Is the news in the oil market? oil had a major once again a major sell-off at the back end of last week As countries like the United States Russia and Saudi Arabia Are trading either in terms of in terms of production or either at or near their all-time production But over the weekend we heard that Saudi Arabia are looking to reduce their output for the month of december And it's also talked that Saudi Arabia and the junction with Russia are looking at actually curbing their Their production in 2019. So we have seen a bounce back in the price of oil the lower oil prices was also was also going to feeding into the fact that The demand for oil is Supply of oil is high people are requesting is the demand for oil going to be low As demand is low in the future. Is that because global growth is slow? So that that's also been an issue Overnight equity market in Asia Finished hiring sessions. There's no major news out of Asia. The one going to pause the story was Ali Baba The the retail company out of china. They had a record singles day This year single day completely smashed Last year's which was a which was a record last year So it was it's encouraging to see it that they're a strong retail environment still going on in China Despite the fact that the economy is cooling Brexit is also going to be on the agenda here in the uk Theresa May is in a very difficult decision as as a whole seems to be the case recently Joe Johnson has resigned from the government as a over the weekend Theresa May is in a tricky position because the hardline Brexiteers of the Tory party They don't want to have it wound up in a scenario by the uk Is essentially stuck in the customs union And definitely until a an agreement can be reached in relation to the back in relation to the Irish border And the democratic unionist party of northern Ireland to your property of Theresa May attend Downing Street Then what northern Ireland treated differently from great britain post brexit So it's a difficult balancing act for mason may so it's going to be a tough time for her I've likely going to be a tough time for the british pound this week as well I take a look now at some of the major markets and See how things are playing out Excuse me, uh, starting off looking at the footsie 100 I'm looking at that on a weekly chart for a very good reason I want to take a look at this red line here at the 200 a 200 week 200 week moving average this red line here essentially the footsie trader Basically traded below it In late october but we've since then we have pushed higher So while we hold above this red line here the 200 week moving average at 69 64 We could see the market edge a bit higher It you know, it's that will be a break below that will be quite negative So while we remain positive things could look okay It is a bit concerning though that we haven't actually taken out The highs of late october So we are below the highs of the october but once we're above why we were made above the 200 week moving average We could see further ground to the upside being made and if you do push on higher We could be looking heading up towards 70 to 20 This region here and if you go beyond 70 to 20 We could be looking at targeting this red line here at the 200 day moving average at a 7904 and a break back below a break back below the a break back below The 200 week moving average Which would come into play at 69 64 could bring the February to bring the February low of Of 68 38 in the play and a break below that could take us back down towards 66 78 Take a look now. What's going on over in germany I'll flip over to the weekly chart because once again I want to look at the 200 week moving average this red line here is the 200 week moving average on the germarket at the dex Notice how we have traded above it, but we are trading pretty much back on it again Our pretty much the 200 week moving average comes in play at 11504 We're currently trading 11400 and 48 so we're a bit below the 200 week moving average While we remain below it that is That is a negative sign and if you do do it If you do remain below it I could take the push on low from here. We could be looking at retesting That the october low all just north of 11,000 11,050 And if you go below that with any printing new multi-month lows and the cuba link heading back down towards 11,000 Move to the upside on the on the on the germarket Roots to the upside. We could see resistance coming to play At this blue line here the 50 d moving average which comes into play at 11,848 and move beyond that Could bring say 12,000 into play and notice how this trend line here from the highs of june through the highs of july And also to the highs of september We're coming to play just beyond that about 11,000. Sorry about 12,020. So there that was keep an eye out for to the upside on the On the backs I take a look now at the italian market because italy is going to be very much in focus this week So italian market has been in a fairly obvious downward trend for a number of months But we have managed to actually bounce back But notice how the market appears to be turning over all itself yet again another If market continues to turn over itself We could be looking at falling back to 19,000 and then below that we could be looking at every test in the october low of 18,415 And if we go beyond that we could be getting back down towards 18,000 Move to the upside in italian market if we do manage to actually take out This blue line here the 50 moving average at just north of 20,000 to 20,066 We're going to be heading toward this yellow line here at the 180 moving average at 20,737 Notice how it didn't actually quite up to it But it since it wasn't quite essentially resistant, but it wasn't too far away from it So if the market shied away from it before what our day moving average it could shy away from it again Take a look now at the u.s. Markets, which are in far better shape than their european counterparts Starting off looking at the dow Jones if you draw a trend line between the lows of 2018 Which is february 2018 Through mark to the lows of march April and may we get this trend line here Notice how the market did trade below this trend line, but it did close above it And the market has since the close above it the market Managed to actually going to make a very decent move to the upside. So while we hold above this trend line It's likely we could see for the gains being made on the dow Jones Notice how we're well above this red line here at the 280 moving average which comes into play 25,103 So we're in fairly decent shape on the dow Jones that ground. We haven't given back some of the gains We're not too far away from the 50 moving average this blue line here at 25,883 And if you look to kind of push on higher we keep looking at Testing the recent highs from the back end of last week And if we go beyond that we could be looking at any up towards this region here from around 25,000 Apologies 25 26,520 600 and then if you go beyond that we could be looking any up towards the 27 27,000 mark If you do have a break below this trend line here, which you come into play in around 24,450 They're there about that will be a fairly a bearish sign of a good point to further losses And also take a look at the S&P 500 Similar situation It's getting very it's getting decent trend line support from a trend line Which was much further back from the lows of february 2016 to the lows of november 2016. You draw this trend line along here apologies Notice how the market actually Perfectly respected in the end the trend line here. So we're well above the trend line support On top of that we are fairly comfortably above The 200 d moving average this red line here, which comes into play at 2762 and why we remain north of that It's likely we could see The S&P 500 push higher if it do push on higher from here We could really be looking at retesting at the 1 or d moving average this yellow line here, which comes into play At 2822 and if you go beyond that you could be looking heading up towards this area here these lows here from september at 2872 and if you go beyond that we've been looking at retesting the old-time highs Once again, it's only if you drop back below the d moving average You could be looking at retesting 2700 and a break below 2700 might bring the the trend line support into play Which should be in around 2620 and of course if you go below below that we'll be looking at targeting 2600 and a break below that will then point to would be will be quite bearish indeed a point to further losses Take a look now what's going on the gold market has been a fairly strong inverse relation between gold And the u.s. Dollar recently we've seen a bit of a move to the upside in the u.s. Dollar So it's no surprise you've seen a bit of a sell-off in gold in recent sessions You can see all these red candles here and even though it isn't a massive move. It is still significant though that the gold This morning traded back to 11 not seen since since mid-october So we're basically at a one month low for the price of gold, which isn't enormous But gold has been very has been experienced low volatility recently. So a one month low is More significant than it sounds If you could look to continue to push on north from here, we could be looking at targeting 1200 A break below 1200 might bring the september lows in the play 1180 and a below 1180 if you were looking at back down towards 1160 Move to the upside in gold Gains could be kept in around this area here at 1243 and if you go beyond that the next day to keep them f4 Will be this region here at 1265 Take a look now what's going on the old market as I said all was under enormous pressure For a couple of weeks, but we have seen a bit of a bounce back today. This is Quite a quite a sizable move in the in the old market and working a brain crude oil provide Every multi-year highs here in early october and then it was I think quite a very heavy round of losses In recent months in recent weeks notice how The market actually almost well respected this this this price here at basically $69 a barrel As much to push on higher from here if the wider downward trend Continues we could be breaking back below breaking below 69 I bring them this area and into into play at 60 67 spot 50 Move to the upside may run into resistance at the 200 moving average this red line here at 74 spot 11 And then if you go beyond that 75 this region here 75 might act as resistance Take a look now at WTI, which is is in even worse shape than Brent if you can believe it So so the WTI market has been Experienced a far largest sell-off as you can see here then the then it's Brent counterpart Once again, we have seen a bit of a push higher here though as of this morning But if the downward trend does continue, we could be looking any back down towards The the February February 2018 low of Of a 58 10 if the downward trend does continue a bounce back may run into resistance in around this area here 62 spot 50 and if you go beyond that we could be looking up towards 65 dollars a barrel and if you go beyond 65 dollars a barrel of WTI The 200 moving average This red line here at 67 spot 53 make them into play and notice how how far below WTI is below its purity moving average that gives you an indication of how bearish a sentiment currently is Take a look now at the euro dollar So as of this morning the euro Broke through the august lows. So back down to levels not seen since June 2017 So once you get an indication of how bearish things are on the euro is partially driven by the certainly throughout the Italy So as I said, we've now created, you know, the lowest level than over a year, you know, multi multi multi multi multi month lows If you dig it into push on lower from here, we could be looking any back down towards this area here at one spot 1110 And he moves to the upside In euro dollar mirror into resistance in around the kind of 113 mark 113 did act a decent support not too long ago So it may act as a resistance in the near term and if you do go beyond 113 We could be like heading up towards 115 115 10 this area here Take a look at pound dollar. As I said that the pounds under pressure on the back of a continued uncertainty. It's already Brexit So the wider term view has been between april and august pound dollar was in a fairly obvious downward trend It's just a bit of a comeback In august but once again, it would appear that we could be looking for The market could be turning over itself and falling into the that was the wider downward trend because notice how the highs and how the highs We see a succession of lower highs here We had a decent bounce back in september But then with the rally in october fail to take off the valley in september and the rally in november fail to take off The rally in october So a series of lower highs here and so we could see a series of lower lows kicking we could do After market gets pushed on lower here We could be looking at retesting the october lows and if you go beyond that we could be looking at retesting The august low which comes to play at one spot 2661 moves to the upside Maybe run into resistance from the in this this area here You know, he had made october highs in around the one spot 3250 area And if you go beyond that we could be looking at heading up towards this area here The early july high one spot 3361 I take a quick look at the week ahead If you go to our website Cmcmarkets.com and under news and analysis, you will find the week ahead video week ahead both video and written article So on Tuesday went on Tuesday wednesday We have uk cpi unemployment and wages on Tuesday tomorrow We have first half figures from vodafone and Tuesday We have third quarter figures from home depot in the us on Tuesday wednesday We have a number of real estate investment trust companies from the uk reporting land securities British land and works and work workspace all their first half figures On wednesday we have a number of economic indicators from china fixed assets investment Retail sales and industrial production Wednesday and thursday we have us inflation and us retail sales and wednesday and friday We have eurozone gdp and eurozone cpi it's also worth Noting if you go to our website cmcmarkets.com and under the learn section and they go to webinars and events tonight On monday the 12th of november 7 p.m. UK time 1900 GMT We have a webinar you can attend Twitter development program part two It is free to sign up. 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Thank you very much