 Okay, very good morning. It is Wednesday the 14th of April. I hope you're all doing well I'm gonna run you through a couple of different things I'm gonna look at the charts a couple of them from a technical perspective But of course I'll run through things as well fundamentally and look at some of the major news That's happened in particular wanted to delve into the topic of Vaccines in a little bit more detail following on from what happened with the pausing of the rollout of the J And J drug in the likes of the US in Europe Which has now happened. What does that mean? What can we? Take from that in terms of an interpretation for the overall impact that it can have on markets So starting off then let's have a look at the overall Mix of how different assets are trading this morning And it's a little bit of where we finished yesterday We did see record high prints in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and this of course coming Irrespective of that initial J&J news, which did exert some initial downside pressure on US indices We're actually more than recovered that after we saw the US CPI print, which although Was one of the biggest increases that we've seen inflation in many years In fact, it was not that kind of wild inflation increase that some had been fearing just a few months ago And as such if anything kind of relief rally on the back of that And that's been observed across the markets with dollar still weaker at this point in time Obviously the Dixie got hit quite aggressively yesterday and that helped support both major pairs And the Dixie is still down trading lower by around two tenths of 1% this morning into the European open So both major pairs in the top left Eurodollar and cable up respectively 20 and 30 pips each respectively gold still supported US yields also Decreasing sharply yesterday posted a CPI number the 10 years sitting flat at the moment But it did get a further boost yesterday after demand for the longer dated 30 year US bond auction was particularly strong as well Which is also alleviating concerns given the kind of breadth of supply coming from the US Treasury WTI crude Excuse me also higher benefiting from the same kind of narrative really because if inflation is not wildly out of control then there's no need to be fearful about the Fed having to take pre-emptive action in a more hawkish sense in terms of Having this early taper talk or talking about rate rising suit rate rises sooner rather than later And as such that kind of lower environment allowing growth to materialize And if we have inflation but almost in a positive way fitting more of a growth than inflation scare narrative Then that scene is more positive generally for the kind of growth story and oil benefiting on the back of that demand The ongoing commitment from OPEC as well Remaining steadfast to help support the market and we had a bit of a breakout late yesterday through the Kind of close of US into Asian trade of that trend line that's been in place since the end of March We kind of held around that area That was yesterday's high through much of the Asia pack session and a bit of a breakout this morning as Europe has come in And also admit the weaker dollar still trend that we're seeing at the moment So in WTI futures, we've just reclaimed a $61 handle Technically having broken through that high that we had back on the 6th of this month at 1690 upside targets now Not to a little bit way higher Looking at 6118 Some price reaction that we saw at the end of March then beyond that point up to 6150 and 75 would be that high At the beginning of the month So it's still looking pretty bullish there as well for the time being while we're on oil and just to cross it off The other thing of course, we did have the API crude or infantry's last night Excuse me, and we had a crude drawdown of 3.6 million That was a deeper draw than analysts were expecting of 2.5 Cushing that was a bill of 917,000 gasoline a bill of 5.565 million The other thing that we have had on the charts is an ongoing Appreciation of Bitcoin Just having a quick look at the chart here yesterday saw a bit of a breakout through 62,000 62,000 was also the the high that we printed back on the the 15th of March And we just see the further acceleration futures here have traded up beyond 65 and a half thousand in the Bitcoin future Looking on the daily chart, you can see the significance of the breakout Excuse me You have to again excuse the coughing I've I've tried to record this briefing a couple times And unfortunately, I can't get through it all without at least a small cough So you have to bear with me, but as you can see here the excuse me the the technical break Just changing my charts over to what we've had here is the 60,000 345 level that had been kind of a key area of resistance really going back to Mid-March and the the breakout of that has just been seen further upside You know, why is this happening or beyond the technicals? There's obviously a fundamental matter That people are turning just a little bit more bullish again on the crypto space Particularly the kind of front runners like Bitcoin, Ether printing all-time highs coming before the coin base Kind of listing that's happening today going public and Then that's that could set a reference price of that at 250 bucks for the direct listing If you wanted more detail on that issue specifically, what what is a direct listing who a coin base? What does it mean for crypto? So on then just check out the Amplify Trading YouTube channel If you just search and subscribe to Amplify Trading on YouTube You're better scroll down and you'll find this coin base video that our man in the know Eddie Don mess did yesterday in The chat with one of our senior traders Tim Duggan. So just click on that check that out It'll explain everything you need to know about about coin base and so on but otherwise that let's get back to business and talk of vaccines and This was one of the headlines that we had Last night so Johnson Johnson said it's delaying its rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine in Europe After US regulators paused immunizations with the shot-pending review of rare blood Clots now one thing to be aware of here is that initially US indices dipped when the US came out and said they're pausing the use of J&J's drug They can review it over the coming days. However, we were already recovering off those lows even before the CPI hit One thing to bear in mind here is that the J&J vaccine like the one developed by AstraZeneca uses and adenovirus To deliver the genetic material into the body to provoke a defense against COVID-19 The Astro vaccine uses a chimpanzee Adenovirus to achieve the response while J&J is derived from humans. That's the one slight differential But Russia's spandex five vaccine and one from China can see no biodegestics They also rely on the same approach again This mainly being the different approach from the MRMA technology adopted by Moderna and Pfizer by NTECH So the point being there with this and the reason why I think that there's Intra-day volatility and how to understand and interpret that is that when you see a flash headline like J&J pulls their drug in the US the initial knee-jerk reaction is always Fairly exaggerated because if you think about the way the news is delivered It's simply just a red sticky kind of headline on Bloomberg and markets will react to the knee-jerk kind of almost a motive fashion to that But one of the things I always encourage our traders to do is look beyond the headline and understand the kind of devil in the detail and actually I think given the fact that the Delivery mechanism if you like of how that drug works with J&J very similar to Astra and we're talking about the same issue In terms of blood clots as the as the risking in question then actually I think the market was Better prepared now than it would have been without Astra having confronted its issues that it's had over the recent weeks and so That being said then when Sputnik 5 comes out or the Chinese company can see no comes out Then again, it's almost like a diminishing law of return in regard to the fact that the blood clot issue is It's definitely looks like it's linked in a way to that delivery mechanism So it gets less surprising each time a couple things though You've also got Mike Ivy in our community very blessed to have him as part of the team Because he really is on top of all of this stuff and he he made three really key interesting points I think about the vaccine which I wanted to run through so point one was It shouldn't really affect the US vaccination plan Too much Entirely plausible the FDA could issue an imitation to use along the lines of the EMA the MHRA and AstraZeneca But mRNA vaccines are becoming ever more plentiful in the US and an interesting graphic here to look at is this one this is looking at the Kind of composition and the timeline of what the US rollout program looks out looks like for COVID-19 And as you can see from the beginning they've been very aggressive adopting the more expensive And the technologically different mRNA vaccines in Pfizer and Moderna J&J is coming a little bit later to the party only really started to be manufactured and distributed now to pick up in the future So one of the things here might be that There might be some operational issues as J&J vaccine may need to be aimed at older people Rather than the hard to reach there's obviously unique benefits to the fact that The J&J drug generally as comparative to say Moderna or Pfizer just generally easier to store Therefore easier to distribute given the temperature issue It's also a single shot rather than a double shot So on and so forth The overall takeaway here then is that it could well delay The overall vaccine strategy, but we're talking about weeks rather than months So it's a little bit more contained than perhaps then the kind of Sensational way it was reported in yesterday To further stress that point. This was an interesting tweet that I saw last night I think it was around 9 p.m. Or so London time yesterday evening and it's the Pfizer CEO And the Pfizer CEO here saying it's ramped up production of their COVID-19 vaccine And actually they can deliver 10% more doses to the US by the end of May previously agreed a total of 220 million and Will supply a full 300 million agreed on the end of July two weeks early So almost counteracting it and if you think about the weighted importance for the strategy of deployment of vaccines in America Well, it's it's almost outweighs that percentage increase what J&J we're going to bring to market at this point anyway so it offsets and mitigates then the kind of The kind of quantifying the impact of what the J&J issue might have and at this point Yeah, the J&J issue we're still yet to really see the definitive outcome from the likes of the FDA and so on the other thing then is How what does this look like and what's the impact for Europe? So, okay, we can ascertain here there from this discussion that perhaps then It's not so bad for the US because of the composition of the basket of vaccines that the US has its strategy based upon What about Europe and unfortunately for Europe as it has been from the beginning with the whole vaccine saga It's another significant speed bump actually given the fact that COVID cases are still Generally heading in the wrong direction in a lot of areas who are still facing restrictions at the moment coming in contrast to generally Reopenings that are happening at the moment like in the UK that initiated on Monday It's definitely more significant potentially for the EU And the reason for that is that a lack of supply because of production problems and our possible restrictions on the use of compounds Is the same issues that we've had with generally the the Astra vaccine If you remember the ingredients That's required as part of the makeup of then the manufacturing process that might well take place in Europe a lot of that comes from the UK For example now by the numbers I was just looking at this last night the EU has 200 million J&J Doses on order with an option for 200 million more. So this chart we have here of the US I don't unfortunately have one for Europe But Europe's heavily dependent on J&J coming to market. So this is a significant headache They had 55 million doses which were expected to hit this quarter The other potentially problematic thing here is that companies like Pfizer and Moderna Have very much been steering their efforts to servicing the US Not Europe and as we've just seen from the Pfizer CEO They're looking to ramp up production to top up the speed of that of delivering to America Given the fact that generally how this has worked is the first orders in are the first clients to be served and America were very aggressive for Pfizer and Moderna. The UK was very aggressive to Astra Europe's being a little bit slow on the pickup on the order side So therefore they're kind of lasting queue And so it's just another problem after the AstraZeneca one now for J&J for Europe Going forward in terms of their Their ability to really continue to speed up the vaccination rollout Which of course will be imperative for the eventual reopening of the economy and a divergence in timing that we might see between the US UK and mainland Europe the third point and the final point here is really about Vaccine hesitancy There were some charts if you remember I shared briefly a few weeks ago Which showed that after the kind of vaccine war saga that we're still kind of seeing to a certain degree But when it was at its Most of them in us between the European officials in Britain What we actually saw was that UK people have remained pretty confident with the acceptance of the Astra drug But the confidence in the validity of that drug has decreased substantially in mainland Europe. I mean, they don't trust it They don't want it which is another real problematic potential issue because if let's say the J&J drug is said to have had blood clot issues and This gets significantly blown out of proportion by the media Then that can have negative connotation then for people's perception about the safety of that drug And so if then J&J does come to market and it is able to then be seen by the medical authorities It's being accepted that the benefits outweigh the risks like what we've heard with the Astra drug from the EMA in In terms of for the UK and Europe Well, then the problem is then do people believe that in mainland Europe for Astra drug We've seen they don't irrespective of the medical advice So this is another third final issue that could potentially arise from the vaccine situation So yeah couple things there. I know quite a lot to take in The final comment was the White House. What have they said about this while their COVID coordinator has said the US has More than enough Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to maintain its current pace of vaccinations And I think there's some legitimacy in that just given the the kind of what we've just discussed with the composition of the Vaccine basket in the in the US. All right, we'll move on a few other things to talk about just very briefly Feds Harker Spoke last night said the US economy could grow five to six percent this year buoyed by the increase in vaccinations Strong fiscal aid, but importantly the Federal Reserve is not going to pull back from its support just yet Separately Feds Rosengren said sees no urgency for the Fed to raise interest rates Even with a positive economic outlook as long as inflation is in a two to two and a half percent range. He is not particularly concerned Noting though that both of these are non-voting members of the FOMC But again, we emphasizing that idea that although improvements are happening That they're not in the mindset yet of that having any impact for their policy path at this point in time Overnight very brief mention We did have the RBNZ rate decision. No surprises at all there kept rates at point two five percent kept their large scale asset purchase program and a hundred billion dollars Kiwi In fact, actually the Kiwi dollar rallied obviously comes amid the the softer dollar at the moment Just looking technically at the Kiwi chart on a daily continuation Just quite interesting here to keep an eye on the upside level of 71 Psychologically 71 in Kiwi. You've also got the support levels from Mid to late Jan the support level that held in early March. We're coming back up for a test of that at the moment It's quite an interesting technical level there for the Kiwi to watch as we go through the session for the rest of today finally then let's have a quick wrap up of The Calendar for today what's in store so going through the UK European morning. It is particularly quiet You've got the IEA monthly oil market report for the energy trade is interested You've then got the industrial production numbers from the Eurozone at 10 o'clock as well But would be anticipating too much move on the back of those you've then got US import Export prices at 130 the DOE all infantry numbers to follow the API's last night will come out at 330 as usual You've then got a whole plethora of speakers today Just sticking with the main ones. You've got fed power The fed share is speaking later on today. Hey speaking at the economic club in Washington There is going to be a moderated Q&A that's happening at 5 p.m. London time You do also have feds Williams and Clarida who are voting members and Bostick But they're not going to be speaking until very late towards the close on on Wall Street from ECB perspective Christine Lagarde to speak at 3 p.m. And the Reuters event and you've also got the vice president the Gwendoff speaking this morning at 8 a.m. And then you also have Bank of England member Haskell as well talking later on this afternoon So quite a lot to be aware of there Finally there is earnings as well happening earning season really starts to kick off Today with the bigger US financial firms reporting and it's always the first couple of companies from that sector That generally carry the most influence because then they act as a precursor for generally how that sector has performed So today is probably quite interesting for the financials GS JP Wells Fargo all reporting pre-market as you can see here Generally as earning season gets underway analysts are expecting earnings for S&P 500 companies to have jumped 25% from a year earlier Driven it by strength and consumer discretionary and financial companies are looking for good numbers today from these guys the kind of bar is set are they going to exceed that bar is the question and That is it so I'm going to leave it there let you guys get on with the session Hopefully the the the discussion of the vaccines was was useful and I wish you a good session ahead. Thanks very much