 Since the late 2000s, Ubuntu has been the most important and popular Linux distribution out there. Like, it's not even really all that debatable. It's just a distro that the vast majority of people who use Linux on the desktop use. And for that entire period of time, it has also come under a lot of scrutiny because of that popularity, whenever canonical and the people who develop the Ubuntu desktop make any type of change, there's always an outcry from some portion of the community. It's just the way that it kind of works. And it doesn't even really matter what changes they've made, whether it's for good or bad. Some people are going to be pissed off because they made the change. And even as new as I am to the Linux community, like I started using Linux full time in 2017, for that entire period of time, at least for the most part, Ubuntu has been a very important and influential distribution. But it feels like in the last year or so, maybe even two years, the influence and popularity of Ubuntu seems to be waning, at least in terms of its usage on the desktop. Now, I don't have any hard numbers to back this up other than the recent losses of the Ubuntu desktop on the Steam hardware survey. But it still feels like a lot of like Linux YouTubers, a lot of bloggers that cover Linux have moved away from speaking about Ubuntu in a positive light. And it led me to think about the future of Ubuntu, because like I said, Ubuntu has been a very influential, very popular distribution for well over a decade. What does the next 10 years look like for the Ubuntu desktop? And is it even appropriate to start thinking about Ubuntu as a waning desktop, something that is on the decline? So let's just start off with the current state of Ubuntu, because I think that a lot of Linux YouTubers, a lot of Linux content creators, whether they create blogs or whatever, have been very unfair to Ubuntu over the last couple of years. And well, they have had some stinkers in terms of releases. The release from late last year was not a good release in terms of stability, in terms of consistency, it wasn't very good. But the most recent LTS was actually quite good and quite well received. But there's still a lot of talk about how Fedora is the new Ubuntu and how we should stop pushing new users to Ubuntu and push them towards Fedora instead. And it makes me wonder, is that something that we should really actually do? Should we stop telling new users to use Ubuntu and instead use Fedora? And as I'm thinking this, I'm wondering why this should even be a question, because for me, it's not actually a question. If I were to tell someone what distribution they should use as their first Linux distribution, Ubuntu is definitely still probably the one that I would say. Now, there are other options that are really good. So Linux Mint, based on Ubuntu, ZorinOS, based on Ubuntu, we kind of get the idea, right? Like every distribution I can think of, except for a couple of exceptions that I would point a new user towards, they're based on Ubuntu. I would never tell a new user to go use Manjaro. I know some people have said Manjaro is great for new Linux users. I don't think so. Arch is just something that should be used by a new Linux user after they've used Linux for a little while and understand the differences between a desktop environment and a distro. Once they get the lingo down a little bit, then they can try an ArchBase distro and probably be more successful at it. But for me personally, whenever I tell anyone that wants to use Linux for the first time, and they ask me what they should use, I always point them towards an Ubuntu-based distribution. Easy to use, very stable, lots of software, I mean, the list just goes on and on, right? Even something as locked down as elementary OS is a good option for new users, again, based on Ubuntu, popOS, based on Ubuntu. So this idea that Ubuntu is no longer important, that it's not something we should point new users towards, just doesn't make any sense to me. It doesn't make any sense to me. Now, that doesn't mean that Fedora is bad. Like Fedora is a fantastic distribution, and it's not even as if Fedora is a bad idea for new users. I would say it could be used by a new user fairly successfully. But there are certain quirks about Fedora that are just different, things like their complete disregard for anything proprietary. So you have to enable certain repositories in order to get those things. And it's not well explained. So it's not as if enabling those non-free repositories is hard, like they give you an option right there at the beginning, but they don't explain why you should do so. You know what I mean? They don't say, hey, if you want Nvidia drivers, you have to enable this thing. And they don't do that. They just have, like, if I remember right, just like one sentence, would you like to enable non-free repository or something like that? And that's it. Like then there's a button. So that's one quirk of Fedora that is not all that new user friendly. Also, they use vanilla GNOME. And while I think that vanilla GNOME has gotten better, for sure, Ubuntu has actually done a fantastic job of taking GNOME and making it so that it doesn't suck so bad. They've made it faster. They've made it more customizable. You know, they've added features to it that make it so you actually want to use it. And while, like I said, vanilla GNOME has gotten better in those areas, it's still not as far as Ubuntu has taken it. So I think that Ubuntu has actually done a better job of making GNOME usable than the Fedora guys have. So that's another thing that I think would, at least in some ways, make Fedora less interesting or less good for new users. And then there's community because there is a very large community surrounding Fedora. And it's a good community. Like they're very helpful. And there's a lot of documentation for Fedora. But when you're a new user and you need to find some help, you want that help to be as plentiful as possible. And because Ubuntu has been so popular over the last decade and a half or however long it's been, there is a ton of documentation out there. Now some of it's out of date, obviously. But if you have a problem with Ubuntu, there is like a 95% chance, maybe even higher, that someone else has had that problem as well. And there's a solution online for you to fix your problem. And that's not necessarily true about Fedora because it's not as widely used. So when we start talking about what distribution we should point new users towards, I still feel Ubuntu or an Ubuntu based distribution is the correct answer. So to answer the initial question, is Fedora the new Ubuntu? I don't think so. Like I don't think that Fedora is ready for that position yet. It has to grow in popularity. So the documentation and support online increases. It has to be more user friendly, at least in certain areas. So I think that Ubuntu is still and rightfully so the best distribution for new users. And I'm not just talking about Ubuntu, like the thing, like the actual distro. I'm talking about, you know, the flavors and the things based on Ubuntu, like Linux Mint again, elementary OS, Zorin, PopOS, whatever, things based on Ubuntu just tend to work better for new users on the broadest range of hardware than any other distribution out there. It just seems to be the case. And there's a reason why Ubuntu has been so popular. The question I asked earlier is why there seems to be this idea that Ubuntu is on the decline. And I think some of that is general dislike of canonical. Now I can't really explain why people dislike canonicals much they always have. Like I don't really understand it. Like I don't know whether or not it's just antipathy towards all corporations or whatever. I don't know if people tend to have this kind of tribalism towards liking Red Hat but disliking canonical. I don't know because some people who hate canonical with a passion are perfectly fine with Red Hat and well, Red Hat is owned by a corporation that is bigger than canonical is. So I don't really understand the idea of disliking canonical just because they're a corporation. Now some of that I think some of the dislike of canonical I think is due to the fact that canonical has been known quite frequently over the last years to work with the devil. And when I talk about the devil, I mean Google, Microsoft, Amazon, they being canonical don't seem to have any problem working with giant evil corporations that everyone in the Foss community rightfully can't stand. So some of that evilness seems to have rubbed off on them and they got infected. That's a possibility as well. But also I covered this in a video a few months ago. Ubuntu, at least before this last release, is kind of boring. Like it's just one release after another, hardly any new features, just making GNOME as stable as possible, whatever. It just it works. It's nothing exciting. There's no push forward. And the thing about Fedora is it seems like Fedora has become the distribution that pushes things forward. And that used to be Ubuntu. So Fedora develops type wire. Fedora pushes forth Wayland. Fedora pushes forth advancements in system D, like so on and so forth. Like it's just on and on. Everything that's new to Linux and Linux desktop over the last few years has come from the people and the community surrounding Fedora. And there's this idea that Fedora, therefore, is taking over from Ubuntu as the distribution that is pushing things forward. I would argue that Ubuntu hasn't been that in a long time and maybe even hardly ever that. Like Xorg was developed by the same guys that are doing Wayland now. And Xorg is 30 years old. You know what I mean? Pulse Audio developed by the same guys who are doing type wire. It's not as if Ubuntu has ever been all that innovative. And when it comes to underlying technologies, it doesn't mean that they've never contributed to any of those things they have. But a lot of their big ideas have been complete failures. Things like MIR, you know, technically still around, but definitely not Wayland. You know what I mean? And there's nothing wrong with that. But I don't think Ubuntu at least recently has ever been that distribution that has pushed things forward. That's always been Fedora. So in that case, you know, you really can't say Fedora is the new Ubuntu because there's the roles really haven't changed. So bottom line now that I've been rambling on for 10 or 12 minutes. Ubuntu is a fantastic distribution. Fedora is a fantastic distribution. But I don't think that Ubuntu is as on the decline as some people seem to think. So that is it for this video. If you have comments on the state of Ubuntu, you can leave those in the comments section below. If you want to follow me on Twitter, you can do so at the Linuxcast. 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