 All right, very good morning guys. It is Friday the 18th of December, so I hope you're doing well and welcome to What in many ways is to kind of the final trading day of the week Don't worry. We'll still be here on Monday doing the sessions as usual But often for bigger players in the market really today defines the end of the the year in some respects This year could be a little bit unique There's still a number of unresolved quite major issues to contend with Namely brexit and obviously us stimulus which I'm going to update you on in a moment But otherwise today could be quite interesting for the sense of you know if there is any Kind of book squaring just going into the end of the week end of the year into that quiet kind of Christmas typical lull You've also got quadruple witching today, which I'll explain in a moment as well happening throughout the day so Quite interesting day perhaps then given the view that we've held since the beginning of the week, which was that Generally we were looking for Optimism in the beginning of the week But then those two major issues of stimulus and brexit to be unresolved Which is very much looking the case and whether just given some of the relative Elevation we've seen in a lot of asset prices, particularly in the equity space For example, you know, are they susceptible for a bit of a pullback and then throwing the kind of Mini hand grenade of quadruple witching which typically adds to a bit of that volatility And are we going to see a little bit of a move today? Perhaps to the downside yet to be seen But let me get up to speed what's been going on overnight The close on wall street was marginally positive up roughly around 0.5 to 0.6 percent across the major three indices Not too much really to speak of in the asia-pacific session sentiment a little bit dented Donald trump again coming out with some final departing blows on china the u.s. Preparing to blacklist semiconductor manufacturing international corp and dozens of other chinese companies According to people familiar with the matter that was a Reuters exclusive overnight And then in terms of the final kind of major central bank decision coming out of the bank of japan All very much as expected they maintain their main policy settings and they extended their virus program by six months saying it would take more action Without hesitation if it was required. So Quite similar to generally the tone we've heard from the likes of the fed and bank of england this week So as we stand this morning, um the dollar Moved a little higher in terms of the overnight session. I don't think that's too Untoward given the fact that the dollar Saw a decent move and pretty consistent move to the downside yesterday I mean the Dixie trading below 90 at the moment So that theme of dollar weakness it has been consistent And as such then that has given a little bit of support to the major pairs albeit. They're still marginally lower For euro dollar in the top left We're just at a level of Kind of relative support at the moment looking at the euro futures here So this would be a level to to keep an eye on as we go through the rest of the session This was the high in which we moved up to In yesterday morning We broke through that acted as to support and has done again. So late in the agent session before this latest bounce So that would be the first area I'd be looking at with the kind of range then formed around that 123 Which was last night's high for the euro with some of that ongoing dollar Weakness, but the bigger move I guess is sterling underperformance When you're looking at the currency market at least, I've just marked this up here You might have seen in the amplified discord chat. We were talking about it last night I think it was around half six or so I was putting in a few comments about a brexit comment and that kind of leads us up to where we are at the moment But as you can see euro dollars down about 10 Cables down about 33 pips at the moment this morning and coming off those highs This was one of the main things that we were talking about in the the live room yesterday Was that the pound has seen a pretty incredible run and obviously on the daily continuation You know, we're set to close above an area really which we haven't managed to really get our head above Which is around that 135 throughout going back all the way to this time last year, which puts us at kind of a multi-year high Now a lot of that has been buoyed by the weakness of the dollar But also anticipation of a brexit deal But what it does mean then ultimately Is that the pound could well be susceptible to given its its move higher? We've had throughout the week to flash move lower As a byproduct of the fact that you know the move has been quite stretched as far as this week is concerned i.e. I'm kind of overbought in that sense So it'd be something to be mindful of I definitely don't anticipate a deal happening today And if you look at the comments this morning, I think it really sets the stall of where we're at at the moment Which is what we'll talk about. So Prime Minister Boris Johnson has come out and said trade talks with the EU are in a serious situation after a call with the EU Essentially what this is revolving around is he warned that a deal would be impossible Unless the bloc softens its demand over fisheries also the FT separately reported Brussels 750 billion European recovery fund has become a sticking point as johnson has warned that EU level Spending should not be exempt From state aid restrictions in any agreement. So this kind of competitive level playing field so As much as progress that we we seemingly made on these three points two of them have just reared their head again And meanwhile talks are continuing in Brussels today Officials cautiously predicting a deal in the coming days This does put quite a lot of emphasis on monitoring the weekend's news. I would be anticipating At this point no deal. And so in terms of Not in its entirety, but no deal being struck on sunday Which some have penciled in and that means then just be mindful of any potential gap down that we might see at the reopening of Trade on sunday night for sterling The cabinet office minister in the uk michael gove You might have seen in the house of lord's committee Conversation yesterday said that negotiations could even continue after christmas He said that EU could provisionally apply an agreement or any agreement that would come about allowing it to delay getting the european parliament approval until the 2021 That being then the europe has already said they could hold a final kind of session on the 28th So for me the writing was on the wall. This is going right down to the wire, which was going to be 28th 29th 30th so I guess i'll be seeing you between christmas and the new year at this point But from a pound perspective today It could add as a bit of a drag ahead wind just given that positioning Generally quite elevated in cable. I guess the saving grace there is dollar weakness, which is The overriding theme here in the global currency market at the moment which can offset that to a certain degree So if cable does hold up then There probably would be a what i'd call a moderate gap down potentially if there's no deal struck on sunday It wouldn't be looking for massive given that i don't think it'd be wholly surprising if that does end up being the case That does put pressure on though on sterling and you know We were talking about yesterday on the longer higher time frame chart You know as much as we might have grind it up up toward 137 That's understandable given what we're seeing But as if we do get down to say post christmas Down to the 27th 28th 29th 30th these types of dates I would expect then the pressure to ratchet up and and it's pretty significant headwinds then for the pound to maybe Just push us back down before then inevitably either they commit to then Still talking in 2021 in whatever shape or form or they get the deal done and then we get that mild relief rally So there's a little bit of a ebb and flow to the movement. I'd anticipate going forward More tweets and rumors. I'm sure to look out for today But I would say relatively downbeat The other thing then is us stimulus. This hasn't Really come to fruition. This has been ongoing. We were at the same place this time last week Congressional leaders are working through the final sticking points on the coronavirus relief deal Although the agreement probably won't come In time for both chambers to vote by today And that means the federal government could shut down briefly over the weekend if senators object to temporary funding While these negotiations continue senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said Will probably require work over the weekend to get it through congress, so Much like the conversation and the timing as I've just said about brexit And and much like the historical Sense of what I've seen over the years. I would think this has still got a little bit of time to drag this out into what then more towards the new year Just before and then I'm sure they'll cut a deal but A temporary federal government shutdown Over a couple of days. It's probably not the most unusual thing and neither would I see it as In itself particularly damaging to markets. I guess the only thing that is damaging to markets It's this idea that you know, ultimately equity markets are still elevated right now and You know, if you're looking at things like the s&p, for example, if I just bring that up on a daily You know, we are still pretty much at record all-time high levels so You know for on this market to just take a bit off the top just given The reasons that I've just said A lot of this is building in the conclusion of some of these top-level macro themes which remain unresolved And then you've got market index futures and options and single stock futures and option Explorations today, which is called Drupal witching which happens four times a year and typically can add to some Intra-day volatility Well, then if we had a bit of a pullback back down Towards 3700 here or if we're looking on the on this time frame Would be around this level of the highs and lows You can see we've already come back down had a test of it Late in the ages session they've had a bit of a bounce up to pivot It'd be quite a key level I'd say if we do see downside pressure to have a look at you can see these highs are getting a little bit more shallow now I've been got up to yesterday resistance and that double top around the daily r2 Any breakdown here probably looking at the 91 to recorder level and then down towards 82 and a half if that were to materialize Any significant dips once again, I think if they are significant They just get bought into at this point. So Definitely not calling for a persistent sell-off If that did happen, I think you get by a step in Lower down to just lift the market again crude market Otherwise just having a quick look elsewhere Pretty stable and obviously it's been a Quite a big week for oil. You know, we have got up. I mean look if you look strategically on on the on the daily chart We have hit our target To the tick almost, um, you know 7 cents off just hitting that 48 66 which was that high that we saw on the 3rd of march. So Um hitting that top and just pulling back a little bit to trade where we are at the moment Which is about 50 cents off that level makes Absolutely clear technical sense given how quickly and persistently the market was rallied throughout this week Um, so at the moment a bit of consolidation for oil. I don't think it's too untoward that probably then The platforms here would be around the 48 handle Probably on any pullback that I'll be looking at The gold market obviously it's it's sort of late and so therefore Um at the moment, it's a pretty tight range that we're seeing that's being formed over the age of pacific region Um 84 to 91 on the upper and and lower side. So Need to see a breakout of either side of that to really make any definitive Call on this don't really have too much of a bias really here In either way, but would probably just be more looking for the market to to show its hand And then potentially you get a break on these levels and a pushback down This level around 77 spot 9 in the futures looks Quite interesting as a downside target for price And then likewise on the upside if we did get the break and then a push back up to the high that we had Yesterday afternoon, which would be the psychological 1900 handle, which if you go on the daily 1900 of course, not only is just symbolic but also technically relevant For where we're trading back in the middle of november as well would be a good upside area to keep an eye on today All right, quick look at the calendar. What have we got to wrap up the week? We just had the uk retail sales report come out minus 3.8 percent against expected minus 4.2, but quite frankly There's just other Things going on for the british pound at the moment So I don't think that's too important really to consider if you're looking at the pound The number a negative number albeit not as deep a contraction as some were anticipating But remember it's negative because of the fact that in november we've had quite strict restrictions across most of the uk So not that surprising that the number is going to be negative at this point Otherwise going further forward. We've got german ifo Which often is quite interesting albeit a number shouldn't really move too much against its previous So the headline figure is better at 90 the previous 90 spot 7 This as a reminder is the kind of german companies Outlook for current and six months outlook of what they see for economic conditions and could be quite interesting I guess perhaps I guess timing of the survey but any downside surprise given the fact that germany has just A few days ago moved into a stricter form of lockdown Going forward through to all the tenth of january of 2021 And whether or not that's going to impact companies perceptions and pessimism is going to grow We'll find out shortly Otherwise into the rest of the day is pretty quiet. There is no major us data So all the more reason I think that it's going to be very much a sentiment driven day upon You know, can the markets stay up on the premise of Still the belief that look no need to panic just yet There's still time to run to get this similar deal done Or do we just see this kind of just rollover of the markets going into the weekend? It's a it's a possibility And then as I said, you've got all the explorations happening throughout the day So just a quick recap for the guys. I know you're mainly trading things like the DAX So midday And then the e-mini s and p nasdaq down. That's all going to happen at the market open All right, that is it guys Not much more for me to add. So I'm going to let you get on and I'll see you in the live chat room on apathy life Have a great weekend and a good session ahead