 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got two full weeks of college football in the books in Colorado is still undefeated and still hot And they've got another game this week coming up at this time. They're pretty big favorites We're gonna talk about their matchup here with Colorado State breakdown whether Colorado can cover a pretty big Pretty big spread here in this one talk about other big week three games and get Dr. Ed Feng's read on his favorite bets For week three at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and on Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Dr Ed Feng you can find his work at the power bank comma check him out on Twitter at the power ranking Ed We are on to week three in college football. How you doing today? I'm doing great feeling a little bit of fall chill in the air here in Ann Arbor and That definitely means more college football to come and and that's very exciting I've officially made the transition into long sleeves and jeans and Ed. Let me say as someone who is a larger individual shedding the Getting out of my summer clothes transition to fall clothes where I'm not gonna sweat constantly is like the best time We could possibly have Awesome sounds good. Yeah, absolutely. So we're talking week three in college football here in a second break down It's thoughts on Colorado. We're talking about the the playcock clock rules as well So a couple different things We're gonna be focusing on for this week to get you ready for week three and look forward as well for the rest of This college football season the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast our first look at NFL week number two went up yesterday via myself and Ryan Williams I broke down spots where I see value in my mod of week two Ryan talks in future see likes and much more We're never full breakdown of NFL week two tomorrow with Ed So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also check us out on the Fandall YouTube page and on Fandall TV plus by going to Fandall comm slash watch We're checking out Fandall TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku devices Get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from Fandall America's number one sportsbook right now new customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars and bonus bets guarantee Plus all customers who bet five dollars will get one hundred dollars off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV Now is the time to join Fandall the app is easy to use you can bet on everything from spreads to player props and more Fandall official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Starkas, you know, LLC first online a real money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is non-ledrable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit Fandall comm slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and Illinois call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-42 in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chan connecticut 1-800-9 with it in Indiana 1-800-522-4700 of his KS gambling help.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana Visit MD gambling help at Oregon, Maryland 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling help line MA.org or call 100-327-5050 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts Call 1-877-8 Hope & Wire text Hope & Wire in New York NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 1923 no refunds terms and embargoes apply $100 off NFL Sunday ticket now YouTube TV YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV Redemption requires a Google account and current form of payment commercial use is excluded Let's shift our focus now and talk about week number three here in college football And we're gonna talk about the gains here in a second but first We talked going into the year about the impact of the new play clock rules where the clock no longer stops after first down Which obviously is a big impact on Totals with college football. We've got three four weeks of data or two and a half weeks of data now Based on what you've seen thus far once you are running your totals model for college football How are you gonna tweak things to account for that new rule? I'm probably actually not tweaking things as much as you might think it was interesting running through the data You know, there was a team a team scored on average twenty seven point three points Last season and that's only down slightly. It's twenty six point seven. So not even actually a full point Difference so that would be almost, you know, two points on the total That's not a ton and not quite as much as people expected Obviously, you're gonna get a little bit of noise with a small sample size of games so far, you know there's maybe some FPS versus FCS that are Skewing those numbers Another good thing. So I'll kill I will continue to keep an eye on it Maybe that changes as we get into these more tougher conference games But we shall see I also actually looked at the number of plays because this was Something The number of places actually probably a better metric for how paces, you know How the clock changes are affecting things It doesn't look like it's changed too much. There have been sixty seven point eight plays the the last two seasons Approximately it's down to place so sixty five point five. I Believe the expectation before the season it was more like gonna be like four plays per game So, you know not not a ton and Actually, maybe maybe four plays per game if it's two per team then it's four plays per game So, you know, probably not as much as like we expected and not as big an impact on scoreboard so I will continue to keep an eye on it, but You know, I think it kind of matters more for Yeah, it might not matter as much as we thought and it's important to have a data-centric approach for this because At least on Twitter, you've seen like these anecdotes about how like college football games are suddenly a lower scoring now as a result of these new play clock rules, but Those are largely refuted by the data and it's important to have a data-centric approach for stuff like this We actually have data to look at so ignore some random stuff You may see on Twitter the data says it's not as big of a an impact is, you know We may have thought but add shocker that Twitter might be a bit misleading at times Wait, what are people saying on Twitter? This is one thread. The one thread about how like some Oklahoma game was like way lower scoring than it was last year It's like a one-game sample and it was very annoying but people like latched on to it and it got traction somehow Well, that's fine. I mean if that's probably not affecting the markets, but I mean if you want to go down one one game Rabbit hole. I'm gonna guess people buying into one thread on Twitter probably are not gonna be people affecting markets too much Unfortunately probably oh well alas, but regardless nice to know things are relatively status quo in that regard Let's take a look at some week three games here Let's talk about Minnesota going in the road to take on UNC where this game right now Sees UNC favored by seven and a half taking on the Minnesota Golden Gophers Ned looking at Minnesota's first couple of games I think the offense has been a bit underwhelming not really letting things up against Nebraska and Eastern Michigan But that's you know based on looking at just the points scored and as we know points scored aren't everything So what's your read on this offense from Minnesota through the first couple of games? Yeah, I mean, I think that might be a little bit misleading You know Minnesota's offense had almost a 50% success rate against EMU So that that's that's pretty good the college football average is about 41 42 percent And then you know in Nebraska's defense might actually be good You know they held Colorado 41 percent success rate so you know Colorado So Nebraska was minus three in turnovers in that game Which is part of the reason about the margin got a little bit bigger than we expected So yeah, I mean, I'm not completely down on Minnesota's offense just yet On the other side of the ball, you know, you have North Carolina at that, you know, we kind of We don't really know about this team We think the offense is going to be good with Drake may and that that's probably right But the defense had an amazing performance You know week one against South Carolina allowed 34 success rate Not as good last week in app state and a much closer game allowed almost a 44 percent success rate It was a unit that really had a lot of suspicion about so I think it was important not to take too much from just one game against South Carolina Overall my numbers have this at UNC Minus eight so not seeing any value in this game And Yeah, so pass on the on side here Yeah, the UNC offense probably not one will be too suspect of Based on the fact they've got drake may there I know they've had a lot of turnover obviously, but pretty pretty fun offense for sure If Ed is in line at the market, then I am okay ignoring that one person Let's instead talk about Tennessee at Florida right now Tennessee is a six and a half point favorite total in this game is 58 and a half And we saw this Tennessee team that undergo a lot of turnover from 2022 to 2023. It was in key pieces especially an offense and They look pretty good through the first couple of games. So when you look at Tennessee With the current offense and current team they have constructed What is the ceiling like for them in your eyes? Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure I agree that they they look pretty good You know like they they actually had a 41 passing success rate against Austin P They were one of my 48 and a half point favorites ended up winning 30 to 13 here. So So I'm not convinced that they've been good and whenever I see Joe Milton I tend to think I I don't I don't know. I mean this this guy has Not been the starter in Has lost the starting job three times already. So in Michigan and a couple years ago at Tennessee We lost it to hand in hooker. So I think the jury is still out there. I'm not, uh, You know, Tennessee is a team that we had high expectations About in in the preseason So I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet and it actually brings in, uh, you know, kind of a pretty interesting point like, uh I had Tennessee preseason I want to make Tennessee about a seven and a half point favorite, which You know a little bit more than the markets are right now and Right now like I'm only making them About a three point favorite in this game And the reason is because I really downgraded them after the Austin P game last week And you can really ask whether I should Do that Actually just had a conversation with Mike Craig this morning. It will be posted on the football analytic show pretty soon And I asked him about what, you know, what he does with these fbs versus fcs games and You know, I mean he basically said for games in which the point spread is huge. He Is more likely to ignore it So that would mean that you know, this prediction is probably going to be closer to six and a half If you just throw out the Tennessee versus Austin P game last week The idea is like Tennessee is not going to throw everything out there They know they're going to florida the sub coming week a much bigger game. They're not going to get up for an fcs opponent um Anyway, I think the jury's still out in Tennessee Florida You know, that was was the exact opposite, you know, they had mcneese state last week before this big game And they pounded them and you know the metrics underlying that game suggested that was was uh So I mean, basically they played like they should have against mcneese state Tennessee really didn't so You know, my numbers are showing a ton of value um I think in this one i'm less likely to uh pull the trigger on florida plus six and half because of that And and that's simply because you know, like i'm not sure what to make out of one fcs game Uh, you know, maybe moving forward if we see a lackluster performance from Tennessee again, especially on the offensive side of the ball Against the florida defense that you know, we didn't really trust too much coming into the season Uh, I'd be more likely to be fading the volunteers I think that's an interesting dynamic too because Mike craig is obviously a very sharp guy and again We've had in the show here before uh extremely someone who I respect a lot with regards to his thoughts in college football So him saying that is obviously important, but also we've talked here on the show about how It is still important when good teams do what they should against bad teams and You could kind of talk about it either way. So I feel like to me I understand both sides of the argument. So i'm curious You know, I feel like for you when you're showing that much value I I guess i'm a bit surprised that you're not going to take it But I think that I think that I guess I get it too because we both respect Mike a lot And you can also understand his side of the argument. So I understand it. I I guess that you know, just it's it's definitely a tough thing to weigh When looking at stuff this point of the year Right and I feel like if I if I knew either of these teams more in depth Then maybe I'd be more likely to pull the trigger if Tennessee were a team like tcu Then that would be a lot different a team that I thought was overrated heading into the season um Florida, uh, uh, you know like the uh the result at utah was probably not uh the the scoreboard was probably A little bit harsher to Florida than it should have been so there's there's there's a lot of things I I think that, um It is possible to take advantage of my number on this, but I think you need a little bit more in-depth knowledge about it and I also think that the Like the null hypothesis if we're talking, you know, your Stanford phd terms the null hypothesis should be that you're not Going to bet a game and you have to be convinced that you want to bet a game and if you have reason where you can't really You know, you can't convince yourself to bet a game. Don't bet it That's the the beauty of betting college football is You can bet a lot of other games Those other games could include colorado taking on colorado state the host of college game day for this weekend Obviously colorado has lit it up at across their first couple of games But this time around they are big time favorites 22 and a half is the spread for this game colorado colorado state A fan dual sports book in the total is 59 and a half So ed we talked about the numbers in colorado entering last week But your numbers now have one more game to factor in there where colorado won convincingly Obviously the success rate may not have been as high for them in that game But score a lot of points. So now with two weeks of data on this very fresh team What are your numbers saying about them right now? I have bumped them up past FBS average. So, uh, I'm a 59th now point About a half point better than fbs average. That is going to be on the low side. Um, I just Obviously like I have one, um system that updates every team and there's just some teams that just Don't fit into that system and it makes it hard to get to where the markets are which are, you know, probably Which are in this case definitely Better than than what I have. So I'm definitely adjusting on colorado. Uh, I still think, um This is definitely not the week to fade colorado. That's what you're inclined to do Which is something that I am inclined to do Colorado state is is not good. Um, they they have been in the hundreds for a couple years in terms of their rank And they got blown out week one against washington state and you know Is one of these things where the scoreboard was actually probably kinder to colorado state than what actually happened on the football field so Colorado should win this one. They should win this one pretty easily I find it interesting that game day has decided to go to boulder this week when they have Oregon and usc Coming up in the two weeks after those should be, uh, I don't know. I mean those games should get some pretty good ratings Yeah, uh, because Oregon and usc are both pretty good teams and I'm pretty sure fando was aligned for that. I think that's all Oregon minus 14 and a half against colorado at the very bottom there If you check it So, yeah, I mean Look, I you know, I I think I talked about last week that uh, I like nabrasco plus three That didn't work out and colorado won pretty comfortably and should have won pretty comfortably they got upgraded in my numbers again and Yeah, I mean, I I still have them a little bit underrated. I can't get to this number of colorado Um, you know minus 22 and whatnot against colorado state They're gonna have the spotlight and that 10 p.m. Window and uh, I think they're gonna get a lot of attention and that's gonna be great Uh, but it'll be, you know, it's gonna be even better the next two weeks when they play some real competition So that organ game you mentioned uh, organ currently 14 and a half point favorite against colorado at fando sports book This is for next week and we talked about this before but your college football model reacts a lot more quickly now than The old model in large part because of the transfer portal. So At what point are you going to say? Okay I have enough data my model reacts quickly enough We're gonna put a lot of stock in what the model is saying about colorado and feel confident In fading them if you're still inclined at that time Well, so so I didn't use the new model because of the transfer portal Uh, I used a new model because I found it to be more accurate than what I was using before Which was based on strength of schedule adjustments in season Uh, it it just turns out to be better to react week to week in college football And that's that's really how most people kind of handicap things, right? They see something and they say oh that team played pretty well Let's move pretty quick and moving pretty quick is is the right idea um in college football As for this game. Oh What were you asking about? Oh, yeah when when to fade them? I don't know. I mean I Pretty I I'm pretty sure that I will probably be betting organ at some point. Uh, you know for that Do you know anything about the handle that you guys are taking on this game? Uh, the organ game or the colorado? Um, I have not asked uh What I'm sure it's up for a reason. That's what I would say Yeah, for sure. I just wonder if like, I mean, I'm sure the handle is pretty huge. Maybe it's a little bit less On such a lopsided one against colorado state I I wouldn't be surprised. Um, I have not seen any discussion about I know last week. I think that it was like The handle on the colorado game this might have been for a different sport But because I saw it on twitter But it was like more than all but like five other college football games combined for that week It was insane how big of a gap there was between that one in the pack Yeah And then obviously like most of the public money is on colorado correct and the public wins wins again and uh Uh Yeah, I mean look this colorado team is going to get tested and yeah, it's going to be it's going to be pretty soon And it's going to be fun It will be fun I think that we can say that definitively we don't know where the saddle in what the ceiling looks like for this team But they will be fun regardless Let's open up the board at across week three in college football. Where is the best value for you at fandall sports book right now? For sure. I'm I'm going to go to this uh, houston at tcu game So this is a game That my numbers really like So I I actually have this tcu by two And the spread is seven and a half Oh, I guess houston's at home So tcu's a team i've talked a lot about I think they're overrated I still think they're overrated and they actually got quite a downgrade last week Against nickle state. They're a 42 point favorite and they won but the underlying numbers really didn't justify that at all Houston's a little bit of a different story. They're probably not in the same league as a tcu But uh, you know, they were the underdog against utsa and ended up winning by a field goal They were a touchdown favorite against rison actually ended up losing but The results were you know within within a reasonable Within a reasonable amount of what the expectation was Before the game with the markets Uh, their defense hasn't been good, but usually data holgers and teams tend to be pretty good on the offensive side of the ball So my numbers really like tcu in this one. Uh, if I only have if I have them winning by two and What I like about this game is it's also the question of like how much do you want to pay attention to a game against an fcs team Like tcu had last week and even if you don't Take the adjustment for tcu against nickles. You're still showing value against hueson here This is the tcu team that like I said I mentioned I've Been interested in fading since the pre season because of that I actually really think there's value in in hueson plus seven and a half here at home Uh, it is their big 12 opener. I think they'll be excited. Uh, maybe the defense will even show up and come to play Um, so this is the game that I like here All right, right you right now as you mentioned hueson plus seven and a half is Minus 118 a fandal sportsbook, but you do get the benefit of a win if it lands on seven With that one of the take on tcu that game as ad mentioned is in hueson That is all that we have here for this week on covering the spread from a college football perspective But as mentioned, we are back once again to marlton talks in nfl with ed and if people are looking for your newsletter Your discussion with mike craig where can they find all those things? I talk with mike craig on my podcast the football analytic show check that out wherever You get your podcast and then my free newsletter is at thepowerrank.com Been people seem to really like five and i'll get saturday Uh, i've been saying if you need action on any given weekend is definitely the free service for you And basically ever since the nba finals i've been putting a prop At the beginning of usually and it's something that i do Usually five nuggets saturday is kind of more about what other people are saying and and it is a service for You know it it i basically try to curate sharp people's opinions And uh, but i also do a little bit of myself and and i've you know kind of sense the nba started Since the nba i was like, oh well, let me challenge myself to to do some player props and and that's been fun And it's been reasonably successful and that will continue through football season. So head ryan tanny hill over Uh, half an interception last week, which didn't really take that long to win, which was nice Uh, that's not obviously that's not going to be representative results every week But check out five every saturday you can sign up at the power the power rank dot com Could have had a tannahill altar over because i think he had three picks in that game That's what someone else told me today and i've like i actually stopped paying attention to the game Right you won your bet. Why why care for that? I had sains money line though So i was very grateful because they could have blown that game a tannahill made sure that they they pulled through for me There you go All right again, check that out Sign up for the newsletter by going to the power rank dot com and check out the discussion with my craig We discussed before a very sharp college football mind Uh college basketball mind as well by searching for the football analytics show wherever you get your podcast I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast and check out fan dual research at fan dual research Back with you once again tomorrow to break down nfl week number two This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network