 This is part three of lecture three in this part of the lecture. We're gonna gonna be diving into the controlled Roots of processing information. So we have this automatic route in which we rely on Euristics while making decisions, which is great because it's very efficient. It's smart. It's it's it's it's quick But it's also flawed in a way because these heuristics also can make us to make bad decisions social decisions So we're now gonna zoom into the controls thinking style and Typically, this is a sort of the more superior thinking style is what we sort of use every all the power that we have in our brain to make To come up with good decisions, but in this part of the lecture We're gonna see that also this controlled route of processing information is a bit flawed and sometimes even when we really try Our very best to make good decisions Yeah, our brain works in ways that we still end up making bad decisions or having bad intuition So let me start off with an example for you to To get a sense of what I mean. So here you see a family These are all kids of one set of parents They have 12 kids and they are all boys all boys 12 kids. What are the odds, right? So now let's imagine or not imagine this actually happens this family the Schwann family The mother got pregnant again So if I ask you to estimate whether this next kid will be a boy or a girl, what would you guess and Even though that you probably are familiar with the concept of you know What the odds are when someone is pregnant that the odds are pretty much 50 50 So you the best answer when using control thinking style would be it's 50 50 I don't know right but still we have if we have an example like this our brain also works tricks on us So we feel like we can sort of if there's 12 boys already the chance of adding another boy Having a family with 13 boys. That's very very low chance, right? So you think think to yourself after 12 boys It must be a girl or you think to yourself if it's 12 boys, it's probably gonna be another boy Both styles of thinking is incorrect. We don't know it's 50 50 But still our brain sort of plays tricks on us because we feel like we can predict this We can control this so for this example the 13th baby of this family was Another boy. Yes, and the story doesn't end here because after the 13th boy the mother got pregnant again child number 14 What do you think? Another boy. It's crazy, right and then a miracle happened the 15th baby It was a girl unbelievable So the Michigan couple finally welcomes the baby after having 14 boys. Well, this is what I call persistence I have three boys myself. I don't think I'm gonna take it this far. It's too extreme for me So this is just for you to show that that our brain tries to understand the world around it Even when when there's just odds even when things are random We have this very big desire to control the world around us And we do so all the time We see for example Relationships that are not actually there. This is called illusory correlation So we you know what correlation is right that there's a Relationship to between two factors and we oftentimes have the idea that there's a correlation a relationship between factors That are that is not actually there. I also I'm your social psychology teacher But I have these illusory correlations as well For example, I feel like every time I'll I go outside and step on my bike. It starts to rain You know, I feel like there's a relationship there the times I decide to go my bike It's gonna rain. So I experienced this correlation. That's not actually there I don't control. I don't actually control the weather, you know, I don't have that power but still we feel like we do have that power and Especially when the odds are higher So we want to control the outcomes of things that we really can't control we use this For example, we also feel like we can control outcomes by changing our behavior This is something that you can witness it if you visit a casino This has been used by observation research so people researchers go to casinos and observe people and when The players want the dice to have a small number like for example one or two They roll the dice very slowly and if they want a higher number, they really throw the dice So they have this they change their behavior based on the idea that they are controlling the outcomes This is called an illusion of control. So it's sort of related to the illusory correlation But this is I do something so I roll dice is either I do it slowly and then I feel like I have a higher sense of having a Small number or I throw them and I have the idea that I get a higher number Which is of course totally, you know, that's not happening You don't control the outcome of the dice by the speed of throwing the dice Also, of course people do this all the time you wear your lucky t-shirts If you are watching for example your favorite team playing on Television so you're not impacting the game at all But still you really need to wear your special socks because then your team will win So these are all examples of our you know rational brains We are smart very smart creatures humans, but still we feel like we control outcomes that we actually don't And we do so especially when it when the stakes are high So for example, if it's a very important match of a very important moment Then we really want to wear our lucky t-shirts and ironically we also want to do this We want to change our world. We want to control our worlds after things happened especially after disaster strikes and This is what happens to this guy. You see her in the picture. He's standing by himself all alone For the Dutch people he probably looks familiar his name is Sven Kramer He is a long-distance ice skater and for a long time He was the king of long-distance ice skater skating especially on the 10k so 10k of speed skating He was the champ and he he was just unbeatable for a long time But then something happened In the Olympic Games of 2014. He didn't win. He got silver So second best the second from the entire world You would think that he was would be you know ecstatic, right? He would be so happy But actually research shows that people who win silver are oftentimes Destroyed they're not happy at all here on the right hand side You see the winner who is obviously happy but also with Bob the young who is embracing the winner He's also super happy Bob the young who won bronze the third prize so worse than Sven Kramer It's happier than Sven Kramer and this is something that it wants you if you watch the next Olympics or a world game You oftentimes see that people that have the silver prize are Destroyed are just so sad and this is also referred to oftentimes as the silver drama And for Sven Kramer this was even worse because something happened in the last Olympics before where he was disqualified Because his coach gave him the wrong instructions and after this race in 2014 the Olympics race He was really driven to win the gold medal once again on the Olympics But it never happened for him and again so and the chances are you know He's not gonna win this again. So this makes it even more painful Even though it's really weird because this is something he got a good outcome He got silver, but people are not happy with silver It's sort of also what happens in a completely different scenario. I'm gonna paint you this picture now Something I read in the paper a couple of years ago This is of the postcode lottery which is a lottery in the Netherlands in which people from a certain postal area can Win a prize. So this is about a certain guy Kamal Let's read along so Kamal can forget about the millions instead He received flowers from the postcode lottery Kamal who lives in a millionaire street in sitarts Plays in Netherlands in the south of the Netherlands and has been taking part in the lottery for years Doesn't win any money because he didn't have enough money on his account for the direct debit to take place in the crucial month So the moment them the exact month that He could have win the prize and he could have become millionaire He was too poor to for this direct debit to take place So this is heartbreaking, right? And for Kamal, this is just something that you cannot even you know, you kind of wrap your head around it It's so bad. So if something like this happens or the the race the the silver race of Sven Kramer, what? These people probably Kamal and Sven engaged in is something that psychologists refer to as counterfactual thinking and Counterfactual thinking is sort of our endeavors to try to mentally change some aspect of the past as a way of Imagining what could have been for Kamal It's so easy to just imagine if I only checked, you know My account if I only made sure that I had enough money on my account then I was a millionaire and for Sven Kramer It's probably if I just you know was a little bit faster in the corners on the screen Then I could have won the gold medal So if something happens if you feel like you could have controlled the outcome and you just made the wrong call at a crucial Moment in your life. This is something that people just have a really hard time Dealing with we experience a lot of regret a lot of anger a lot of frustration if this happens Counterfactual thinking that's basic. It's the impact of what could have been I was so so close of getting that price of Winning that award of winning the medal So People spend quite some time to try to control things in our life that we cannot control So that's sort of the unpleasant truth. I want to tell you talk to you about We have less control over the outcomes in our life than we think Ironically though when it comes to things we can actually control we make mistakes as well And this is for example illustrated in the planning fallacy and this the planning fallacy basically means that We overestimate we have more positive ideas about how quickly we can Wrap up a project then is actually the case for example. You probably now We're still quite in the beginning of the course You will think you know, I will just go to that exam. It will be flawless I will just watch watch the lectures I will just read the book and I will do the exam and then everything will be fine Maybe you'll even postpone, you know watching the lectures because you feel like yeah I can easily do that in the three weeks before the exam, you know I have plenty of time then so I can just do it then and we fail to realize that our reality is oftentimes Difference oftentimes things happen. Maybe you get sick. Maybe you know your cat eats your book Maybe something else happens. You get distracted. Maybe your boyfriend or girlfriend breaks up with you leaving you destroyed in Uncapable of studying for the exam so we tend to ignore all the obstacles that are still in our way And that's something that's illustrated Here and the planning fallacy is also one more example of sort of the unrealistic optimism And sort of the exaggerated self-esteem that people have we have the ideas that we can control the world We are in control. We know that we're gonna rock it. Well instead Things will oftentimes be more difficult than we than we think so I'm telling you this right now in the beginning of the course Keep this in mind the planning fallacy while you're working towards your exam Still far away would make sure you have a good planning that also takes you into account the obstacles that you will come across Thanks for watching. This is the end of the lecture