 Hey everyone, welcome to this weekend's video update. I'm actually recording this on the morning of Saturday, February 27th Hope everybody had a good week of trading Let's take a look at the markets We'll take a look at an update on our day trading and then we'll jump into the alerts and our current portfolio To start with take a look at the S&P 500 ticker SPX Just give me a little bit of a long-term perspective chart Going all the way back to to the pre-2013. I mean think about think about this end of 2013 The S&P was at 1800 we almost hit 4,000 earlier this year so Pretty crazy run. We've seen overall Obviously we had a nice sizable dip in that upside run during the whole coronavirus scare But they didn't even since then it's just been up up and away with some small blips here and there And in fact, we are in the middle of one of those small blips now when you're in Positions and you're trading and especially if you have long positions Sometimes a little dip like this feels like the world's coming to an end and the market's crashing Especially if you read the headlines or listen to the financial media But keep in mind This is in the big picture. This is right now a pretty small blip now Every big blip starts with a small blip so don't get me wrong It doesn't mean that this couldn't turn into something more But keep in mind what we've seen here the last couple weeks This is no different than what we saw a few weeks ago, you know, you can see it's the same really the same size Little little down move. So the question is do we just rip up to new highs again? Like we did last time or is there more to it where we see some more downside if we look at it from a Perspective of a on a percentage basis. I mean look at the S&P It was up as much as six point seven five percent year to date Now we're still up about three percent year to date So we've seen a few percent decline and we could certainly see another few percent decline And that would still be nothing but a little blip, you know five or ten percent correction is pretty normal in a might in a market cycle and so What are we doing to position ourselves for this? Well, we currently have a little bit less than one-to-one on our short delta versus our theta ratio and so While we did have some long positions and we that we had to close out for losses this week And we did have a couple iron ducks that we got flushed out of our overall portfolio Still grew because of that short delta that we had now as the market moves lower that short delta amount You know lowers as well our delta neutral positions become a little bit more long delta. We start to add in some more long delta plays And and we start to you know flush out of some of our short deltas and so that's just the natural progression So I I'm really good with where our portfolio is positioned And I just I bring this up to give you a little bit of our thought process in this in how this works because if If this thing does continue to flush lower will benefit But we'll get to a point where we're gonna actually start getting in a position where our portfolios a little bit long delta And that's okay as well Because then you benefit from a bounce and it's just it's playing that kind of game of ping-pong But always having a range and always Understanding the overall delta that you're carrying in your portfolio and being aware of the overall directional bias that you have So it's not that everyone needs to be exactly how we are it's about creating a level of comfort with your portfolio and the positions that you have and Maybe needing to add in some long positions or some short positions to balance that overall directional bias and So I like our position. We've got a good diversified portfolio different asset classes and and and ticker symbols And so we'll continue to manage as as needed But if you're looking for my kind of opinion of where we go from here I would say we probably bounce. I mean, I don't think we're done ripping into new all-time highs I think this is just a little short-term blip, but at the same time it wouldn't surprise me either if we saw some more downside on some of these You know inflation scares and everything else that that's going on and see another two three four or five percent drop But I would say the most likely scenario is we rip back up to new highs And so that is what we will manage around but we'll continue to stay mechanical If we do see lower prices, we'll continue to add in some long long long delta positions Like some of these long-call diagonals that we've been doing will be we'll continue to add in some iron ducks Which start off with a little bit of long delta and so we will will continue to manage as needed So that's the that's the plan there Before we jump into the alerts. Let's take a look at quick look at our day trading Actually, let me bring up our trade checker trade tracker sheet We had another good week of day trading booked a little over $2,500 in profits Which has been pretty consistent with what we've done over the last couple weeks So let me Widen this out a little bit here for you So you can see this week was a little rough on the mighty 90s had some really big pushes in the market They just kind of they kind of squeezed us on some of our mighty 90 trades So only took seven but our win rate is not where we need it to be we need that to be over Over 60 percent You can see the average is about 65 percent on our on our win rate So we really need to be over 60 percent closer to 70 or 80 is is better Which we've seen you know several times you can see our profits when we get that higher when push win percentage But this week a little bit in the red on the mighty 90s Did start jumping into some pair trades went four for four on our pairs trades for over $1,100 in profit And then our our runners continue to be Phenomenal over $3,400 on 27 trades on our runners So net net a little over $2,500 bucks on the week like I said That's pretty consistent with what we did last week and the week before of course the week before that was a monster over 5,400 but Continue to to book some nice profits. We also cracked the thousand trademark Going back to since we've been tracking this on August 31st And we also cracked the $50,000 level of profit So good stuff in our day trading if you haven't had a chance to jump in there yet on our live streams It's a lot of fun making some money having fun. So we'll continue to continue to do that All right jumping into our alerts starting with Monday our first trade was a closing trade in natty gas and This is a this is a kind of a good Lesson of trade, but this is one that was a short strangle that we put on it was actually before I can't remember the exact date. We first put it on but put it on before the whole corona crash and we You know with every asset class Just moving like crazy during that period. We kind of got blown out of one side And so we've just continued to manage Mechanically roll up the untested sides roll out time to extend duration And we worked our way back to profits and finally close this one out For a nice a nice profit of over $700 after all adjustments and rolls So I had a nice contraction and implied volatility over the last couple weeks Stayed in a decent range. He gave us the opportunity to to book that trade So it always feels good to close one of those out after you've been kind of managing and rolling for quite a few quite a ways and so we were completely out of natty gas now and And booked a nice profit and implied volatility is next to nothing now So we won't be jumping into any more premium and natty gas anytime soon, but it feels good to be out of that one Next trade SPX opened up an iron duct did this one with 14 days to expiration. So if we take a look at SPX And let's go to our analyze tab to give you the visual representation. Oops. That's SMH SPX so here's the iron duct that we put on you can see price with this flush on Thursday and Friday has already come Down into the duckhead this one expires on the 9th. So got some time here So hopefully it hangs out in our range during that period and we can book a profit We've got another get to the weekly double calendar when we get to that alert So next trade Twitter did an opening trade and Twitter did a long call diagonal We've been doing some of these different long call diagonals just to a add some long Delta add some long bias in our portfolio to help balance against that other short Delta and so Twitter was a good one You know and with these they're cool because we're taking very little risk And we're targeting kind of one-to-one or better where we're trying to get at least a hundred percent profit on these or more and so let's take a look at Twitter and Where we're at here, so you know we we're taking a risk of about 380 bucks on this trade That's the max max loss we can take that's also the capital required to put this trade on so we can do these very small You can see we're already up 243 dollars. We're actually up quite a bit more But you know, so what is that that's about a oh? 60 70 percent we're already a 60 or 70 percent return on capital on this trade And so when we're looking at when we're looking at entering these we're really looking at trying to jump in to Trades that are that are strong or remember these are long call diagonals. So they're bullish We're wanting up movement to benefit from these and so you know Twitter announced earnings had a big jump And then just started pulling back trading sideways. So we were looking for another continuation in that same direction So we got into this trade. I think it was on this day here and you can see it's it's really pushed up since then So that's exactly what we're looking for on these type of trades. So like I said We're looking at the charts to try to figure out a good timing to enter these trades but really if we are Within our overall portfolio allocation if we're in within our parameters of the range of of our Delta bias that we want To be in we can really be very flexible in the types of trades and what we put on And so this is an example of that just putting on some bullish Bullish Delta to counter counteract our other short Delta plays as well as just take advantage of a price pattern On the charts trend to try to benefit from that. So that's what we did in Twitter Next trade Tesla did a closing trade in Tesla So this is an iron duck that we had on in Tesla Look like who's in good shape to potentially book a duck head But Tesla with along with the rest of the market just kind of got really weak and flushed through our downside break Even so we had to close this out just took a loss on that Tesla iron duck QQQ so this is a Rolling adjusting trade in these short call verticals that we've been rolling just to keep that short Delta with that flushed down in The market. We were over 50% of max profit on this piece. So we just extended duration Rolled that out in time To to keep that as one of our short Delta plays in our portfolio So if we take a look at QQQ And on that down move it really benefited, you know, a lot of our short Delta plays And so we were able to Lock that in and roll it out so you can see now we've we're up about 80 80 60 70 80 bucks since that role so looking for some more downside to benefit this particular piece Next trade XLK another one of our short Delta and very similar to the QQQs This is a long long put vertical as opposed to a short call vertical, but very same on the risk profile We're over 50% of max profit on this piece. So we just locked in that that that Benefit and rolled it out to the next cycle. So if we take a look at XLK You can see very similar. So we roll it out to April and you know, we're up about $140 on this position since we did that since we did that role And we and we've got a lot of a lot of room to the downside if things do continue to fall apart in stocks Next trade opening trade in Roku. So this was a an iron duck that we put on in Roku as Roku Came down had a big down day After it announced earnings we put on an iron duck because the implied volatility was spiking The options were juicy and gives us a big buffer to the downside did this one with 10 days to expiration So let's take a look at Roku. We've actually got a couple different positions on in Roku Here's the iron duck and you can see it's still just barely in the beak starting to enter the head So we've got until three six on this one This needs to go to today Which is okay. So anyway, so there's the iron duck while we're here We've also got a another kind of a long directional play now We put this on before the down move so that we're at little We're a little down on this one But this is one of those long call verticals where we've got to find risk a very small amount We've still got some time on this one So there's some still some time that this thing could push up and get back into range But it took a pretty heavy flush on that down move in in Roku. So But we've got two different positions on there Yeah, on that on that drop after they announced their earnings this thing just kind of started flushing lower So So we're down on our long delta play, but we'll continue to manage and give it time You got to give Time for the probabilities to work out You can't you can't just get scared out of trades if you're getting scared out of a trade on something like this That means you traded too large. So keep your position size in check and you'll be just fine Next trade by do we didn't iron condor So this is what I wanted to talk about because this is a little bit different than a lot of trades that we do Hey, we put this one on with 23 days to expiration So it's not in that typical 30 to 60 day wheelhouse What we're typically selling premium and the reason we're okay with doing this is this is kind of a this is a It's an iron condor, but it's kind of a skewed iron condor And so you almost can think of this as kind of a combination between an iron condor and an iron duck And and so the way the way we did this is we're looking at this I wanted to put on a a Upside a long bias trade and by do but the implied volatility is so high that I also wanted to benefit If we get a contraction in implied volatility So let's start with by do and take a look at the chart and I'll kind of explain what I'm talking about Is kind of like we we saw on Twitter, you know had this big up move We're starting to see this pullback We wanted to get long for a potential continuation up to the upside and at the same time if you look at the implied Volatility the I view percentiles was at 100 at the time. We put this on it's come down a little bit at 96 So we want to benefit from a contraction in implied volatility So we took a position to kind of help hopefully benefit from both of those if they play out And so we put on this skewed iron condor where you know price started right here now prices come down a little bit Since we put this on the price started about right here So we had this big room to the upside if we do get a continuation up and as implied volatility Contracts we would benefit from that as well So gave you know less risk to the upside a little bit more to the downside And we're also looking at this from a perspective if we're not going to take max loss on this You know we're using twenty two hundred dollars in buying capper capital, which is which is also our max loss But if this thing comes through and breaks through our downside break even we're gonna you know Basically, we took in a credit of eight hundred dollars on this So we would we would get out at around a loss of about eight hundred or we may give it a little bit more room But if this thing doesn't bounce, you know, it kind of you know This is kind of a price peak So this would be kind of the the line in the sand if it doesn't bounce on this level There's probably lower prices to come and so that's what we want to see here on that trade So just kind of a skewed iron condor a little bit different than what we do But you know kind of kind of sharing some some additional strategy with you there Next trade SPX iron duck. So this is one that we let expire booked a beak profit on this of 125 Rolling adjusting trade in Apple so that another one of our short Delta plays where as price came flushing down We were over 50% of max profit on this piece. So we just extended duration Rolled this one out actually in this one as you can see here We we stayed in the same cycle because it happened so quickly that we didn't want to roll out to a further dated option cycle So we just rolled our strikes down stayed in that 50 50 day option cycle in Apple so if we take a look at Apple now Apple had a Decent little bounce a couple days ago but then just kind of fell apart along with the rest of the market and so you can see we're up about 50 bucks on this position since we did that roll and we got a lot of room to the downside if things do continue to move lower Next trade Amazon iron duck this one was a little frustrating because we were so close To booking a duck head, but then the market just fell apart and this thing flushed lower down to our down to our exit point So we had to close that one out for a loss in Amazon Airbnb this was one of our long Delta plays that we're We like to put these on kind of leading up to earnings especially in a stock like Airbnb Which is getting a lot of buzz a lot of hype So that we were what we were anticipating was a potential up move into earnings Unfortunately didn't get that so we just closed that before earnings took a little loss on that one And then same thing with Donkey Kong So this one was real close to break even then that last day right before earnings kind of moved a little bit lower So we took a little loss on that one as well But those are those long call diagonals I mentioned and then in Lyft We did a after they announced earnings there they moved above the expected move And so we did a post earnings trade like we teach in our earnings course in this case We did a long call Lyft is such a low-price stock kind of a $50 stock So it makes sense to just buy some deep in the money calls in this case Price is holding really well even though the rest of the market is flushing Price of Lyft has been holding really well. So just wanted to extend duration give us a little bit more time to be right On this trade and so if you take a look at a chart of Lyft Well, let's look at the analyze tab first. So, you know, we just rolled this so it's pretty close to where we put it on But if we look at a chart, you know, even with that big flush down the market, you can see Price has really held Above the level that was pre earnings So it's just been consolidating chopping around and so we just want to give ourselves more time to be right on this trade So assuming the market just doesn't completely fall apart We should see a bounce in Lyft in the next week and and try to book a profit on that trade So that's the that's the plan on Lyft SPX opening trade. So we added a weekly double calendar in SPX as As price was bouncing on Friday We implied volatility was contracting. It fell apart later in the day, but But we got in with implied volatility was it was actually Contracting really well and I got a I got a couple questions about this in the community because one of the criteria of trading red Is is now that we want to see an IV percentile on this 21-day IV indicator We want to see that under 50 And obviously the that it's above 50 while it was contracting is down and kind of a 55 ish level I think when we put this on You know, do you want to use that same criteria for weekly double calendars? And so my answer is this there are some similarities between the you know weekly double calendar and a red trade, right? We're trading two different expiration cycles, but Tim Weiss has laid out a very Specific criteria for trading red. And so if you're trading red trades, you need to follow that specific criteria For the weekly double calendar Well, it does have a lot of similar characteristics What we're trying to do is is really we're trying to get in on a day when implied volatility is contracting And so even though implied volatility is high overall We we we entered on the day when implied volatility was contracting and And hopefully will benefit that because remember implied volatility even though it's at, you know The IV percentile on this 21-day Indicators in the 60s or 70s. That doesn't mean it can't go to you know 70 or 180 or 90 or 100 next week and so we could still benefit now if implied volatility Contracts from here if this market does just turn around and rip higher and implied volatility, you know Tanks is that gonna hurt our weekly double calendar? Yeah, that's gonna work against that trade but You know just what I would say is don't mix criteria for different strategies We have these multiple strategies with specific criteria follow the specific criteria for those trades and And manage them as we teach as well and that'll just kind of keep things separate You don't want to you don't want to mix things because then you start to create a little bit of confusion and you start doing things, you know based on You know criteria that you shouldn't so I hope that makes sense Today is the 27th for some reason my calendar was on the 20th. Okay, so here's the weekly calendar Weekly double calendar, which put on pretty close to where we where we put it on You know pretty centered so Look forward to closing that out near expiration next week assuming price stays in a decent range for us Gold iron condor so we entered a new iron condor in GC, which is the futures contract for gold So we take a look at GC implied volatility spiked it. It wasn't necessarily near the And don't pay attention to the P&L line because the futures a little goofy after hours We're not up 500 bucks on this trade already. We just put on on Friday, but we are dead centered so pretty close to where we put it on and Nice wide range for gold to move around in But if we take a look at GLD, which is the corresponding ETF so you can look at the SN So you can look at the IV percentile wasn't quite at the 50 level Which is what we like to do to sell premium but you can see it's at the top end of its range that we've seen in quite some time and I had a big spike here recently So just selling some premium looking for a contraction in implied volatility to to benefit that trade All right back to the alerts Twilio was a closing trade So this is another post earnings trade got caught in that flushed down with the rest of the market So we ended up just closing it out taking the loss on that one Then lastly SPX we closed out this weekly double calendar that hit it that was expiring Yesterday on Friday when we closed it. We were just looking for a little little bit more bump in the market We're you know, we were in the profit I was just wait for a little bit more and then the the market kind of fell apart later in the day So we ended up taking a loss on the trade, unfortunately But that's kind of the fire you play with when you wait till the last minute to close these things out very well could have been a nice winner, but just kind of Teeter totter moved the other way honest at the at the last part of the day So we ended up taking a loss on that one. So those are all of the alerts. Let's take a look at some of these other positions that we have Starting with ES So this is a a long put vertical that we have an ES. So this is another one of our short Delta plays you can see we're up about 400 and some dollars since we did our last roll in ES ZB this thing did catch a nice bounce remember last week in this we adjusted rolled it out when inverted and so You know, this isn't taken into consideration that the credit and the profits we already booked on on those closed pieces So it looks a little bit goofy, but nice bounce in bonds finally this thing's the bonds have just been on a real downhill slide So nice relief from that slide and bonds and we'll continue to manage their way out of this one. I Already mentioned Apple I mentioned by do John Deere. So John Deere had another good earnings announcement Continue to move higher. This is one of our short Delta plays So this one's what well out of range. We need some downside in DE to To move down. I did get a question I think it was from Andrew about you know on this because of they had good earnings does it make sense just to close this out take a loss and you know Enter reenter or enter in something else else for short Delta and I would say you certainly can do that You know, I mean if you're if you're anticipating that John Deere is gonna have higher prices Then then you could certainly do that. We're just we're just staying mechanical I mean, this is one tiny piece of our portfolio This is one tiny piece of our overall short Delta and yeah, this thing's been working against us But but looking at it from a contrarian standpoint, I would also say I mean, you know This thing has just been so strong that at some point it's gonna come down And so if I was looking at this chart and and looking for you know Potential contrarian play to add some short Delta. I would say yeah I mean John Deere would would be a you know a good potential candidate So we're gonna stay in it and and continue to manage it that way But but you also need to you know, we're not saying you need to copy exactly what we're doing But you should do what what you think is best for your portfolio DIA had a couple of big flushes the last couple days. We've got a short Delta piece in here Which is a short call vertical Similar to some of our others and you can see we're up a little bit of money Sorry having a little problems with my mouse here up about 150 bucks since we did that last roll looking for some more downside to benefit that eBay, okay So eBay we had a couple of long calls. These were post earning long calls Let one of them expire at max loss. This other one's near max loss as well We're gonna give it to next week to see if it'll bounce It kind of flushed down through our level after that post earnings play We're you know, we're coming down to a point where we might see a bounce So just gonna see if we get a little bounce and then close out the rest next week. So that'll be a loser overall IWM another short Delta play another set of Long put verticals here this one. We are almost at 50% of max profit on this piece We're up about at 408 bucks. So if it moves much lower, we'll go ahead and lock that in roll that out to April into next week I mentioned Roku rut. We've got an iron duck in rut Click off here click on our actual position And so you can see prices hanging out right there in the duck head in rut SMH we've got this short strangle that's been adjusted Nice down. We've brought this thing closer to center. So we're a little over a thousand bucks on this trade since our last roll This is in march So we'll be looking to roll out next week as we get close to that See we're at 20, you know on friday. We were at 21 days So just giving it over the weekend to collect a little bit more theta potentially And then we're going to roll out to april extend duration on that one I mentioned spx. I mentioned twitter. I mentioned xlk zoom zoom So zoom announces earnings on three one after the market. So that's monday So we did this. This is another one of our long call diagonals kind of got caught up in the in the Down move of the market. So we're we're down a little bit on this one But we're going to see if we get a little bit of the bounce on monday And then just close this out might take a little loss on that one So those are all the alerts. Those are all of our positions. Hope you guys have a good weekend And we will talk to you next week. Cheers