 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a baseball betters and a baseball fans dream come true tonight because we have Jacob DeRome I'm facing off with the Los Angeles Dodgers and that is kind of a postseason preview Maybe not from the Dodgers perspective with Tyler Anderson starting, but DeGrom Dodgers going head-to-head out in New York. That's a pretty fun spot And I do think there are some good ways to get some betting exposure to this game If you want a little bit extra on the line while you're watching for time I'll break that down will break down some money lines like for today a couple strikeout props Where I'm showing its value and then we'll dive into some racing for this weekend too To get you set for both NASCAR cup series at Darlington and Formula one in the Dutch Grand Prix Welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the Fandall podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to take a look at a wide variety of subjects for today Typically our college football preview will be on Wednesdays I'll be talking with Dr. Ed Fang and Parker Fleming tomorrow to break down. They're fair if that's a week one Across college football that'll actually be up probably tonight around seven o'clock or so We're gonna court that this afternoon So I will have that go live around seven or so tonight in case you want to get in on those spreads Before they can move so again Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread if you're around want a podcast listen to tonight plan around that one Should be up around 7 p.m. Eastern ourselves. We'll talk to Ed and Parker then To get you set for week one of college football I can set for today though MLB money lines MLB strikeout props couple stuff a couple things that that Mets Dodgers game And then some NASCAR and Formula one Later on before we get to the money lines though NFL kickoff is still a few weeks away But you can get on the action now on Fandall sports book with their NFL Super win bonus right now Anyone who places at least a $50 Super Bowl future winner bet will get $5 back for each win Their team has during the regular season There are also a ton of other futures markets available like team win totals division winners player props and so much more There is no better place to get ready for the football season there on Fandall America's number one sports book an official sports betting partner of the NFL Must be 21 plus and president select states only bonus issued is non Withdrawable free bets that expire seven days after a seat max free bet $50 restriction applies see terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step protection except if I 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat In Indiana 1 800 9 with it in Louisiana 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 8 7 7 8 Hope and wire text open Y in Tennessee call the red line at 1 800 8 9 9 79 in Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Let's take it to these MLB Money lines for today my mom my numbers actually showing value in six different money lines for today Which is a larger number than I typically like but I'm not willing to bet all those personally I go through where my numbers see value dig in decide do I agree? Do I not and then pass in the ones where I don't agree bet the ones where I do the two more I agree most for today are the Mets in the White Sox the Mets minus 156 against the Dodgers This has moved from open and opened at minus 135 But I believe that movement is in the right direction and think it should go even further as a day goes along I've got the Mets win odds for tonight at sixty six point seven percent percent their applied odds sixty point nine percent So still a good amount of cushion there to go despite the movement And this is because of how good Jacob de Grom has looked in the five stars of ground is made his skill interactive ERA is one point three one which is Disgusting absurd unreal just for some context on that we got Garrett Cole on the belt for tonight His skill interactive you are rain is most relevant sample which is his past 13 starts is two point seven oh Degrom one point three one his expected you are right under two So even if you know, we're looking at okay, you got a knee array around two point five Maybe that'll get worse. No doesn't seem like it. He's pretty good He's got a 45 percent strikeout rate Degrom has looked every bit of Degrom in his first couple starts back Which is a true delight to all of us Other side here is Tyler Anderson He does a good job with contact suppression. So his results aren't entirely fluky But it is a tough spot for him facing the Mets here. I'm showing value out to minus 200 on this game I think right now at minus 156. There's still enough there to bet this one I think if you open your app and it says minus 170, I'd probably still be okay with that too I think the Mets are just in a good spot here with the Grom in the bump It's hard to fully wrap your head around how good he is and yeah, the Dodgers are tough But so are the Mets so to me I'm going to go in on the Mets here at minus 156 and bet on them to topple the Dodgers here We'll talk more about Degrom in just a second but first let's talk about the White Sox here Their numbers also moved a tiny bit, but I don't think it's moved enough. They're at minus 196 now You can get minus 190 at at least Caesar's I saw this morning you minus 190 By the White Sox is seventy six point one percent to win this game They're implied odds if we take the fan to a one at minus 196 or sixty six point two percent So a lot of value Lanslin pitching for the White Sox. He's pitching really well right now He's cut back on his sinker usage in his past eight starts in those eight starts his skill interactive ERA is two point six nine had a lot of strikeouts very few walks He is facing a poor offense here the White Sox are facing a lefty Usually that used to be like, okay automatic that on the White Sox It's not as much that as it used to be but their WRC plus in the current active roster is back up to 116 versus lefties So it's still preferable to a righty and it is still a good spot for the White Sox for sure Now I was on the White Sox last night. They lost I did not get good movement in my favor in that one But I feel a lot better about Lanslin than I did about Lucas G Lito I just thought the White Sox were a bit undervalued at minus 135 there didn't work out I am willing to go back to the well here as well Now I do think that because it's the White Sox offense in a good spot and Lanslin pitching well You could put some thought to the run line here. The White Sox are plus 114 to cover Minus one and a half right now I think that's pretty fair But again the constant discussion here is that typically the run line market will have a higher hold than the money line market That's true here too the the hold in the run line market is 4.5 percent So you're paying a 4.5 percent tax effectively whereas in the money line market It's 4.1 percent when in doubt go with the lower hold markets That's why I will go with the money line here But If you don't want to lay Minus 196 now trying to just you know grind out some profits. I get that You could go with the run line here at plus 114 My personal preference though is a money line at minus 196 in the White Sox again You can get minus 190 check that out at your available books But if minus 196 is your best number I would be okay with that the two Money lines I feel best about for today are the Mets at minus 156 and the White Sox at minus 196 Let's go back to that uh that Mets versus Dodgers game and talk about some strikeout props here I am tempted By the Grom over eight and out strikeouts That number is now minus 122 at Fandall sports books So we are seeing some movement towards the over on this number But I don't have a lot of data on pitchers similar to the Grom because I projected out I think like 1300 starters this year And I've never had a projection higher than the Groms 10.11 strikeouts the strikeout projection for the Grom for me tonight I don't know the over rates on eight and a half at that number I'm guessing it's pretty good, but it's a eight and a half's a big number in terms of strikeouts He is facing the Dodgers. He's not getting like a full full pitch count lease just yet I did bet this one personally because I I figured 10.11 is probably enough, but I don't think I'd recommend it necessarily There's a difference like I'm willing to bet more things than willing to recommend So I did bet it I want to make that clear But I also want to make clear that I don't have data to back this one up and say yeah You should definitely go out and you know hammer this one because I don't know what his over rods actually are Because it's such an outlier projection. So If you want to go ahead, uh, but I can't like put full faith behind this one just because I don't have data to tell you what his actual over rods are so Keep that in mind at the Grom, but I think that minus 122 over eight and a half is pretty fair If you want more exposure to that game The one I like more and the one I can quantify is Anibal Sanchez under four and a half strikeouts That's minus 156 at Fando and I think that's the best price I've seen thus far and there are a couple of factors in play for liking the under here The first one is this the biggest one for me is pitch count. It seems like they are scaling Sanchez back right now because he's gone 79 and 81 pitches in his past two starts. That's while letting up just one earned run Between those two starts. It's not like he's been ineffective. He's just getting yanked early for whatever reason four and a third innings And one five and another it could just be that they're you know, it's a lost season They don't really care what they see from Sanchez. That could be the factor there That's the primary thing for me The second thing is that Sanchez is just a low strikeout pitcher 17 strikeout for him across eight starts this year Even we go back to before The pitch count got reduced for Sanchez. If you assume the pitch count goes back up He topped four and a half strikeouts just once in his six starts with a longer pitch count I had Sanchez projected for 3.12 strikeouts today. I have his under odds at 73.3 So at minus 156 pretty good value here. I am okay Plugging an under on Sanchez. I feel better about the Sanchez under than I do about the degrom over So if you're picking just one strikeout prop for today, I would go with on eball Sanchez under four and a half strikeouts minus 156 currently a fandal sportsbook But again under odds for me 73.3 percent So we'd be wanting to go a bit longer than that on that one as well So hopefully some good stuff for baseball for today. Monday was a good good slate didn't do well last night But we'll see if we can get a bounce back here on this Wednesday. Okay Let's take a look at some motor racing stuff for this weekend beginning with the cookout southern 500 That is the NASCAR cup series at garland who was talking about formula one in the Dutch Grand Prix In just a bit and this is a race where my numbers are Pretty far off in the market and that is concerning always You don't want to be super deviant because that means you're probably betting against people who are putting a lot of Money in this market betting a seat will make these lines for a very smart It is unnerving But the last time this happened was a Richmond and great race for me there We talked about kevin harvard to win at 16 to 1 he did win there joey legano was undervalued there He dominated that race so I'm actually okay Being a bit different at a track that has some similarities honestly to Richmond in darlington So I want to run through what my numbers are saying here They are showing value on four separate outrides and three of them. I agree with one of them is ryan blaney I don't agree with that one. He Is terrible at darlington relative to other tracks and my numbers can't quite catch up to Can't quite encapsulate how bad he is at this track. So He is showing value there, but i'm not going to bet it. So I want to make that fully clear I am on board with joey legano martin truex junior christopher bell Let's talk about those three guys and what markets i'm plugging them in here legano 9 to 1 of fangirl sports book, but you can get him a 10 to 1 elsewhere I have a 12 to win this race. He won the first darlington race So that's obviously a major factor here second place ever running position He did bump woolly and buy it out of the way, but that kind of Overlooks the fact that legano was a dominant car for that race and legano has been great on every track with Heavy tire fall off this year. There have been four races attracts with massive massive tire fall off So darlington both richman races and fontana and in those races legano's aggregate average running position is 4.8 Nobody else is better than 8.0. We have denny hamlin at exactly 8.0 and we have ryan blaney at 8.0 as well martin truex junior 8.8 and then at 9.3 We have william byron. So legano has been an outlier at how good he's been at these heavy fall off tracks legano also on gateway another track with Uh, where that requires some speed, but also blends breaking and off throttle time I'm very okay being higher than the market on legano here that happens for me a lot But I think at this race specifically given what he did here in the spring No objections. I'm fully on board with legano at 9 to 1 or 10 to 1 to win this race Truex is a bigger question mark, uh, that we do get more relaxed odds on him He's 11 to 1 to win a fandall sports book. Now. He's not in the playoffs. That's why this is a weird dynamic And that is a concern. We could see joe gibbs racing Prioritized our other three cars like specifically chris rebelle's pick crew sucks and we could see them Move some of those guys moved truex's crew over to bell nor to adell bell who is in the playoffs So we could see some changes here, but truex very very good at this track He is an outlier in terms of non playoff drivers because typically you see drivers in the playoff win But like truex finished the season like fourth and points fourth or fifth and points Didn't make the playoffs. I don't think that's an indictment of him and should fully push us away from him here Truex is led more than half the laps and two in the past four going to races. He was great enrichment heavy tire fall off there It's hard to know How much the playoff issues ding him, but I have truex at 12.3 to win this race up from 8.3 implied That's a four percentage point gap Do we ding him four percentage points ding him like, uh, you know Two thirds of his win odds or ding him a third of his win odds because he's not in the playoffs I probably say no So I'm willing to bet truex despite this at 11 to 1 to win this week. It is a concern I want to make that very clear, but I do still think that we can buy into truex here Bell is the thinnest outright value on the board of these three. He's 5.9 percent for me versus 5.0 implied So instead of going the outright since I had legano and truex I went the podium at 6 to 1 for chris rebelle his podium odds for me are 19.2 versus 14.3 implied Darlington historically has not been his best track, but not terrible here. He was very good here back in the spring He had a seventh place at returning position finished sixth in that race He was also tremendous in both Richmond races. Uh, that is massive tire fall off He isn't the playoffs which could help him as well I think the podium market is the best market for bell Whereas I prefer the outright markets for legano and truex I'd also mentioned that eric jones if you can find him I got 70 to 1 uh to win this race If you can find that on jones, that would be a value also a non-playoff drivers to keep that in mind But he's very good at darlington. We've seen him have good speed this year 10th place average running position Back in the spring at this track. So I do like jones But my favorite guys for outrides are legano and truex despite the weird dynamics with truex for this week In addition to the outright bets, I like top 10 bets on legano and truex 2 legano minus 2 Minus 2 10 at the annual sports book truex minus 150 I've got both those guys above those marks this weekend and that's after they move from their open truex open minus 140 But gano, I think it was minus 185 or somewhere in there. So they'd move but Not far enough where they're no longer values for me I still think those are good bets to to grab right now. So overall just being high on truex and uh bell or truex and legano I would also say in group bets. I find a lot of value in bell He is plus 650 top toyota at season. I think he's 71 at draft kings I've got him around 18 percent there. So uh check around for other markets on bell He's showing value in a lot of spots for me Not as much in the outright market, but top toyota podium markets all those things group ads they do like christopher bell there Let's talk about formula one now They will be at their second race out of the break for formula one for the dutch grand prix in the outright markets I am showing some value in ferrari a plus 220. They're a good amount above that for me, but my model I think it's too low on max first hoppin. Um Obviously a home race for him You know got that narrative. Uh, he was insanely fast this past weekend And I don't think my my model's fully Capturing how good he was. So I'm showing value in the ferrari outright at plus 220 I'm not going to bet that though because I think that for stoppin is going to be so tough to top in this race One where my numbers and I agree is being high on the mclarence both mclarence Yes, both for this week I'm showing value in the top 10 odds for both lando norris and daniel rickardo And I also do show a slight edge on norris's top six odds at plus 130 the top 10 numbers Are minus 270 for norris and plus 115 for rickardo lando's been Right on the edge of the top six recently He has been sixth or seventh in Five of the past or for the past five races and He's backed it up with really good speed and practice pretty good qualifying times Lando has been top 10 in 10 out of 14 races this year, which is 71 percent as implied odds are 73 percent, but They've been on the rise recently mclaren has I think at least a little bit the speed for norris has been better of late So i'm fine with both the markets for norris that the t6 bet and the t10 bet I think both those Are values for norris that I do buy into for this week and the t6 odds were plus 130 t10 was minus 270 rickardo might be a tougher sell for you and tougher sell for me initially too because I have been I first ran my formula one model for the second arrest last race last year had a bunch of heads against rickardo In the final race of the year and i'm not sure how much money i've had rickardo at all this year for good reason He's been pretty bad. So my numbers have been low on rickardo for a while now But I think he's undervalued finally the the sentiment is spun enough against him where he might actually be Undervalued Getting a top 10 is not a huge ask for rickardo. Obviously it's now official that he will not return to mclaren next year But they will give him good stuff Do not get that twisted because they want to catch alpine in the constructors championship For fourth and they're 20 points behind right now And my numbers do like fernando alonso this week I'll estimate okon is above rickardo too But like they need as many points as they can get and that means they're going to give Ricardo the best equipment that they can this is not a lame duck situation Rather than finishes My model looks at a driver's speed score and speed score is a number I made up that it capsulates practice time qualifying speed stuff like that to cancel out for Weird stuff that can happen during a race Of rickardo's five best speed scores this year in 14 races Three have come in his past three races He's turned that into just one top 10 finish But historically rickardo has been someone who has outperformed his speed score because he's not super fast qualified Not super fast in practice, but he has run decently well during the race I do think plus 115 is a good number for rickardo. I have him at 51 to finish top 10 versus 47 percent implied I think that's a big enough edge to go in here. So again, my numbers have not been on rickardo at all since I started running them They are on him here And they're also on his team at land of norris which makes feels better about buying into rickardo they need to push to catch alpine and I think they got to get spot to do it a good shot to do it for this week So uh, both norris and rickardo showing value for me this week norris with the t6 and the t10 numbers and rickardo on the t10 at plus 115 That's all we got here for today as mentioned that we'll be back later on tonight With our week zero college or week one college football betting preview with ed fang and parker fleming Get that by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear you're enjoying this daily format make sure you leave a rating or a view because it does Help us a bunch. We appreciate those of you who did so in the past If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the vandal podcast network at vandal podcasts. Enjoy the baseball for tonight. Enjoy digrom versus the the dodgers enjoy It's a nascar in formula one this week. Looking forward to talking to you later on once again to break down some college football This has been covering the spread right here on the vandal podcast network