 Welcome to the Fandall hurry up. I'm Ariel Epstein joining us today is number fire and Fandall's own Jim Zanis. Jim I remember last week you said we were staying on the positive side of the NFL. This week you're taking us more to the negative too many good vibes. We can't have these good vibes lingering. It's June. We're supposed to be in a bad mood because it's like a weird point in the sports calendar so got to bring it back down. We can't have too much optimism here too many good vibes. We're bringing it back down and talking about the downsides for today. It is summer. I'm usually in a better mood in the summer. However it puts me in an even better mood talking NFL whether it's for teams that will or won't make the playoffs. This week we're talking about teams that won't make the playoffs. Starting with the Indianapolis Colts. You do not believe the Colts are making the playoffs this year. Why are you placing this bet. I think this number is just overly optimistic about them. I had them a nine point one wins my wind total projections which means that they are kind of on the fringes and you're getting plus 158 years to me. It's kind of more on the edges of a coin flip than plus 158. They actually do make it. They are behind Tennessee in the division. They are behind the Chargers the Dolphins and the Browns among non division winners. So they rank eighth for me in the ASC right now which will put them the outside looking at that. They've got 39% odds to miss the playoffs based on the implied mark at this number. And I think it's probably actually higher than that Carson Wentz is an unknown here left tackles an unknown given the health of the left tackle they signed Eric Fisher. So I think that there are enough unknowns here with this team where you're getting plus 131 58. That's more than enough for me to take the plunge here especially now that Tennessee has been strengthened with Julio Jones. Being in town Coltett plus 158 to not make the playoffs this year. The Colts were the last team into the AFC playoff picture last season. The other two teams you're going to talk about Jim or in the minus the first team that's not making the playoffs in your mind is the New England Patriots at minus 154 to not make the playoffs. Why are you willing to pay this juice. A big part of it is what my wind total projections say for them. And that's based largely on their projected passing efficiency. And it's hard for me to get super jazzed here despite the fact they have a very good offensive line and they've made additions to their past catchers and still either Cam Newton or rookie quarterback. And it's tough to see this passing offense lighting things up. And if they don't do that it's going to be tough division that features Buffalo who I like a lot in Miami you should be on the upswing here especially if their defense can carry over what they did last year. So minus 154 is a very fair number. I had them at 7.6 wins in my wind total projections. That makes them pretty far off. So minus 154 to me despite being a decent amount of juice to pay I still think there's value in that number given how good the AFC East now is. But also how many doubts I still have lingering about this Patriots passing offense. The Patriots were seven and nine last season. Miss the playoffs also uncertain quarterback situation. Is it Cam Newton. Is it the rookie. No one knows yet. Last game we're going to talk about the Denver Broncos laying minus 190 to not make the playoffs. Jim how come you're going to lay the juice here on the no for the Broncos. Yeah I think that the one way the Broncos make the playoffs is if they get Aaron Rodgers and to get to that point you need to make two assumptions. The first one is that Rodgers is traded because he may not be traded. He may play for the Packers. He may retire. So you have to make the assumption he is traded which is not the most probabilistic outcome to me. The second assumption is he's traded specifically to Denver and there should be a lot of suitors if the Packers do decide to move Rodgers. So that's another step. So to me I think that with the Broncos being minus 190 to miss. I think that I've got to make a lot of jumps to have them in the playoffs as of right now minus 190 is a fair number when they're competing against the chiefs and the chargers in the AFC West. Talk with the chargers last week as being a team I like to make the playoffs which inherently means I'm probably not in on Denver and I think that minus 190 is a fair number to put them at because quarterback play matters so much. You make it better if they decide to start Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock. But either way they're not a team that'll light the world on fire there and I think that's enough where at minus 190 I think there is value on the Broncos to miss the playoffs in 2021. The Denver Broncos to miss the playoffs heavy juice minus 190. However very uncertain quarterback situation in Denver in addition to only having five wins last season. That's it for us here on the Fandall hurry up for Jim Zanis. I'm Ariel Epstein. Good luck to those futures bets in the NFL.