 It is the most wonderful time of the year once again is the twenty twenty two men's college basketball tournament is just around the corner and that that means it is time to fill out your brackets for this year's March Madness. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire dot com here to help guide you through the bracket filling out process for twenty twenty two and I will not be giving my own analysis because I know nothing here. So instead I brought on three analysts who do know what they are talking about to educate you on how to fill out your bracket for this year's starting tournament starting off with my co-host over on covering the spread. Dr. Ed Feng you can find his work over at the power rank dot com. You know dot you know Ed from the covering the spread of course and from the power rank. Ed it is your time of year. How are things gone so far. How are you doing today. I'm doing alright. I'm a little tired. But I think I saw a countdown timer that says we're less than three days away so that's promising and playing games even closer than that. So a lot of fun coming up here for the twenty twenty two men's college basketball tournament. But join here as well by a couple more analysts who you know if you've been sticking with us over here on number fire for a while. One of them is Jessica gridiron. She was with me and Brandon Godulla on our NFL playoff streams every Friday breaking down her thoughts on some profits and more you can find her on Twitter at gridiron and wine. Jessica welcome to the show. We're talking to college basketball for today. How you doing. I'm doing great. I'm glad to be here and I'm just ready for the madness to begin. Absolutely. And you do some some college basketball betting as well. So kind of what got you into that. What's your background in the college basketball side of things. I think people here mostly know you for the NFL stuff. Yeah definitely. So I when it comes to college basketball in general I liked I enjoy more betting on it. I do brackets more for fun. So I'm here to enjoy the show and definitely give you my input on who I think is going to go all the way things like that. But when it comes to me I'm all about numbers and day to day and I was able to make projections on what I think the outcomes would be. And with college basketball it's been kind of fun and there's so many games. Living in Vegas is how college you know college basketball used to be in UNLV for me. And that's what got me into it. And here I am today. And the good thing is there is a lot of overlap between betting and filling out your brackets. So that would be valuable knowledge for us here for today. Also joined here by Bennett Corcoran. He is a senior data scientist for a number fire and Fandle and he was on our stream last year as well breaking down March Madness giving out his thoughts. You can find Bennett on Twitter at 617 Bennett Bennett. Welcome back. How are you doing today. Doing great Jim. Great to be here. Thanks again for having me. Absolutely. So I didn't have you on board and I think it's it's it's fun because between you and Jessica we've got a lot of smart people who know the numbers side of things. And Bennett for people who haven't gone over to number fire use the tools over there we'll be sharing screen later on that shows all the day we've got over at number fire. But what all goes into having these numbers that help you fill out your bracket hopefully in a smarter way than you typically would. Yeah no. So I mean it really comes down to just team rankings. So basically being able to generate simulations based on team rankings coming up with different stage odds you can see what's the probability this team is going to go to the sweet 16 final four ultimately win the championship. And then from there you can kind of make informed decisions to help you win your pool. So and of course Ed wrote the book on winning your pools. We'll talk to him about strategy for that as well and he's got his numbers as well over at the power rank dot com says the smart people to let you know what you need to know. For this year's tournament before we dive into that though quick rundown of how we'll do things for today. It's a bit different than a lot of NCAA tournament shows because we want to start with the most important thing. The way to win your bracket is to pick the national champion because that's where the majority of the points come. So we're going to spend the opening part of our discussion today breaking down who Bennett and Jessica think win the national championship for this year because that is the key decision point the key place to start. If you want to win your bracket regardless of pool size you kind of got to pick the winner to figure that out. Then we'll go through some strategies for how to fill out your brackets based on pool size. We'll lean on Ed's knowledge in that department and then we'll go region by region after that breaking down. You know the typical stuff you talk about looking for some upsets looking for some sleepers and all of that before we dive in to today's show. Got to remind you that it is true the best time of year. March means meaningful basketball and Fanduil is getting fans an exclusive opportunity to bet on March Madness games this year presenting Fanduil's risk free bet the bracket. Here's what you have to do log into the Fanduil sportsbook and opt into the promotion then place a way to run any college basketball game with odds of minus 200 or longer. If your bet loses you receive a refund inside credit. Head over to Fanduil sportsbook and place a way to run any twenty twenty two NCAA men's basketball game today must be twenty one plus and present Arizona Colorado Connecticut Iowa Illinois Indiana Louisiana and permitted Paris is only Michigan New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Tennessee or West Virginia or Virginia gambling problem called 100 gamblers of Fanduil dot com slash R.G. In Arizona one hundred next step or text next up to five three three four two in Connecticut one eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven. This is C.C.P.G. dot org slash chat in Indiana one hundred nine with it for confidential help in Michigan call one hundred two seven seven one one seven in Louisiana one eight seven seven seven seven seven zero stop in New York. Text HOPE NY or call one eight seven seven eight HOPE NY in Tennessee call the red line at one eight hundred eighty nine nine seventy nine or in West Virginia. Go to one eight hundred gambler dot net with that all said let's dive on in and break down the brackets for the twenty twenty two men's college basketball tournament starting off at Ed because I mentioned before you literally wrote the book on filling out your bracket I've got over here somewhere I'll find it as we're talking here but you wrote the book I'm filling out your bracket and the majority of the first part of that book focuses on what kind of pools you want to be in because you know if you're talking about a a faddle type thing where you're playing against you know you know a bunch of people who are playing betting on faddle and stuff like that there are a lot of people involved if you're in a smaller work pool maybe twenty people it's a very different dynamic so Ed for you when you are looking at the way you want to fill out your brackets what pools you want to enter what's the optimal pool size and why is that the case. Right I mean I think the most important thing to understand is that you know if you use analytics use number fire use the stuff on my site you're gonna have a pretty good chance of beating any one person right like you have a good chance of winning a two person pool So but the problem is even though you have that edge your probability of winning a pool decreases exponentially with pool size so that's really the main thing right. And you know in winter take all pools I would not recommend getting into anything greater than 100 smaller is usually better. You know probably easiest thing is to win the 10 person pool with people who only think about college basketball in the month of March like your family maybe me. You know you know we make you think about it more in February and March, but you know anything in that like the 20 to 50 ranges is also pretty good. I never thought about this until I talked to someone that had used my site but he ends up getting in smaller pools by entering the ones with a bigger entry fee. So they naturally tend to be smaller, and that has really worked out for him so things to think about when you're when you're trying to get in a pool. Yeah and as I said I did find the book over here how to win your NCAA tournament pool written by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find that over on Amazon if you want to read the full details of that. We'll talk about the strategy portion of that throughout the show for today as well because it's a hyper important thing while you're filling out your brackets. And let's start with the all important thing because Eddie talked about in your book how upsets don't matter that much because you don't get that many points for picking a round of 64 type games. So you can pick a seer on the national champion and go from there. Gonzaga the most popular pick over at ESPN. They are winning in 28.1% of the brackets over on ESPN. Also the betting favorites over at Fandall Sportsbook. They are three to one. So Bennett, I want to talk to you first. What do number fire numbers say about Gonzaga relative to the public? And what do you think about them as being the clear favorite for this year's field? Yeah, thanks Jim. I mean, number fire is fairly aligned with the public percentages. So number fire has about 27%. You mentioned 28% of the public's picking Gonzaga. I actually think it's probably a bit closer to like 30%. That Gonzaga is going to ultimately win Fandall Sportsbook gods at three to one. So that says about 25%. So all these numbers are, you know, same ballpark. I think personally, like I mentioned, I'd say it's a bit on the high end. So a bit closer to 30, which is, you know, right in line a little bit higher than the public. So I think that alone allows you to kind of justify betting Gonzaga or taking them in your pool. But I do think it's important to caution that, you know, this is just Monday. And it's important to kind of keep up with these public pick percentages throughout the week. Right. And, you know, it's possible that that would change. And, you know, that would ultimately have to change your strategy. If this gets up to like 40%, you're not going to want to take Gonzaga. But I think, you know, if it's, if it locks Thursday and it looks similar to this, I would feel comfortable taking them. And it's important to know too, because it has changed already. I was looking at the pick percentages on around like noon or so today, and they were at 29.3%. They're down to 28.1%. So actually moving the other direction where people see, okay, Gonzaga is the chalk. Let me pivot. Let me talk to you, Jessica. What are your thoughts on Gonzaga overall? Are you taking them to win the whole thing this year? What are your thoughts and then as a favorite here this year? Yeah. Yes, definitely. So I like Gonzaga. The reason I'm picking them is when my, look at my projections, I use a blend of Torvik, Ken Palm, team rankings and four factors, among other things. And yes, I know it's super square, but I have Gonzaga winning it all. I mean, this is their revenge tour after last year's disappointment. And all my projections and numbers agree. They don't have an elite opponent until around elite eight in my opinion. So I'm all on Zaga. I was last year too, and they made it one game away from securing that victory. And this year I feel like they do it. Now I'm not the biggest fan of being on the public side, but I trust my numbers. And I wouldn't fade them regardless of the chalky bet. So that's why I like Gonzaga. Trust in your stuff. Love to hear it. So Bennett and Jessica are both on Gonzaga. Ed, are you talking me out of this or am I just putting Gonzaga all the way right now? And what are your numbers saying about Gonzaga for this year? Yeah, I like Gonzaga as well. A couple of weeks ago, I bet them, I think plus 375 to win it all. Angry at myself that I didn't do it early. Looks like we may have lost Ed there. We'll get Ed back and we'll, we'll get his thoughts on Gonzaga and other tournament thoughts too. One thing that Bennett mentioned, we were talking about Gonzaga on his end was where number fire has them relative to what the public is picking. So the thought process there is if the odds that number fire assigns to Gonzaga are higher than the odds that the public is picking them, then there is some incentive to go with Gonzaga and ride that chalk. However, let's say Gonzaga is being picked 29% of the time and instead we see the public picking them, you know, and number fire has them at around 20, you know, 22%, that's not true to pivot. So Bennett, are you seeing any teams that wind up looking under value to you potentially maybe incentivizing you to pivot there, or regardless of pool size, is it all about Gonzaga for you? Yeah, so I mean, I think when you look at the kind of the public pick percentages relative to the number fire projections or, you know, whatever other projections you're using, I think Gonzaga definitely seems like the kind of clear cut choice just because when you look at kind of the other teams that you would consider, like we were talking about last year, for example, we had Baylor in Illinois, they were both in that like kind of 10 to 15% chance to win. Number fire is Arizona 12%. I kind of think it's a bit lower given their region. So I don't think there's as much of a pivot. I would say if you really didn't want to pick Gonzaga and you were kind of looking for a pick that was going to help, you know, kind of deviate from the rest of the field, I would say one team that I would consider is potentially Kentucky. I think they have about seven and a half percent chance to win it all. So nothing crazy, but it looks like the public pick percentages is closer to like six and a half range. Yeah. Well, as I mentioned before, you know, these things can change fairly quickly. Obviously, Kentucky is a fairly popular team. So that might not necessarily hold by Thursday. So I would just make sure to kind of keep an eye on all that. But that's another team I would consider if you're looking to kind of go against the grade in a larger pool. All right, we got Ed back here. So let's go back to Ed and hear your thoughts on Gonzaga. Are you just riding with Gonzaga no matter what this year? Yeah, absolutely. You know, I've got some futures at plus 375 a week or two ago. I think what we said, I think there is plus 300 most places right now. And that's after I feel like they got stuck with a pretty tough region. I think highly of Duke. I think they are, you know, it's a highly variable team, but as a team with a very high ceiling, perhaps even higher than Gonzaga. So that region is partially tough. But, you know, I mean, Gonzaga is the most complete team in this tournament. And I don't think there's any doubt about it, you know, in some of the member numbers that I trust the most, their five points clear of anyone else. And I feel like there's Gonzaga and there's about five, maybe six teams that you can make an argument for that are in that next pile. And I think you could kind of pick one of those five teams at random. If you wanted to go with some other choice. But yeah, I think Gonzaga is a clear favorite. And, you know, I think their probability of winning this tournament is probably pushing one in three. That doesn't mean they win it. Obviously, you would take the field over that anytime. But just remember, it's difficult to win the tournament. You know, sometimes you have you don't have a great game in the national championship game against the second best team in the country. These things happen. So, but I do like the odds for Gonzaga. Yeah, again, Gonzaga three to one over a Fandalsports book to win for this year's tournaments and Ed's numbers like them a whole lot. Now, one thing that Bennett mentioned was that Kentucky over on number fire stuff might be a bit undervalued. They're at 6.7% to win the national championship based on the public picks. They've been higher over a number of fires. And I want to go back to you. Are there any teams you're seeing is undervalued here? Let's say I'm stuck in a large, large, large pool. I can't get out of it. I've already committed. It's a free pool. I want to win this thing. And I'm like, OK, I don't want to pick Gonzaga. Are there any teams you see as being undervalued by the public right now that could be a pivot if you're saying I can't pick Gonzaga because the pool size that I'm in. I think I'm going to go back to my last answer. I mean, if there's there's five teams that that you can make an argument for is being, you know, there's five teams in that next group. I think you can literally pick one at random. So, I mean, let's put Arizona in there, Baylor, Kentucky, Kansas. Yeah, I might be missing a team. Duke, sorry. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, all those five teams are so close by my numbers. And I think each has a weakness. We could talk about them. If you would like, but I don't really think I don't I think you can make a case for all five. Yeah. And I think that's a tough thing, too, is you can say to yourself, I want to pivot off Gonzaga, but where do you pivot? So, Jessica, let's go to you. Your numbers like Gonzaga, you're going Gonzaga. And I think that based on the way it sounds like what they're saying, you should just do that. Are there any teams you think, though, are undervalued? If you said, I'm not going to take Gonzaga, any team, do you think the public may be a bit too low on in terms of winning the actual national championship? Yeah, definitely. My next tier down would be Arizona or UCLA as a good option. And then I would look at Kentucky and Texas Tech after that. But there's significant significant drop off in my opinion. I mean, it's it's literally Gonzaga all the way. But if you like I said, if you had to do it, you Arizona and UCLA would be my two, two ones to choose. Yeah, Arizona is a 12.8% by the public UCLA 1.7%. And that is a pretty tough region, which means it'll be tough for them to get out. But it means that if they do get out, it's a pretty big endorsement of how good that team is for sure. All right. Oh, I was going to add one last thing, spoiler alert. Another team that I also really like that could go all the way is SDSU. Oh, the Jackrabbits. All right. I'd like to talk about the Jackrabbits this early in the show. But pitch me on the Jackrabbits here. No, sorry. Not sorry. Not SDSU. San Diego State. Here. Sorry. I'm so that wrong. Jackrabbits. I'm like, wait a minute. No, San Diego State. My bad. Okay. Okay. Totally said the wrong one. Yeah. Well, I mean, like they're also SDSU. They're multiple SDSU. You know, let's party. That's the beauty of March Madness for sure. And I'm from Minnesota. So my mind automatically went to South Dakota versus versus San Diego. I'd make a bit more sense. What about San Diego draws you towards them? I love the eight seed in the Midwest. They play Kansas potential in the second round. What draws you that direction? I love their defense. I think that their defense is really strong. And I feel like if they can get past Kansas and according to my projections, I have them doing it. I feel like that'll be the big upset. This is, you know, going to be the number one team that I see being an upset in this region. And San Diego State from there. Again, I have them going up against them, making it to go up against Iowa. And I feel like again, if they're deep, like I said, their defense is great. If their offense can make it happen, I feel like they could go all the way. A matchup between San Diego State's defense and Iowa's offense. Chef's kiss. Sign me up for that after what they did in the big 10 tournament. Okay. So that was the national championship discussion. Let's go now region by region and break down what the numbers are saying here. We'll pull up the number fire projections to make this a little bit easier. And these are, again, free to people who are premium members over on number fire. So you have a number fire, go to the March Bandit section, sign it for premium. You can see all of this and it'll show you win odds based on each game. And you can kind of pick teams based on that. You can see these projections right on the screen. Let's start things off with one of the guys behind the projections, Ben, and talk about this south region where Arizona is a one C, but Tennessee's a three C coming off a win in the SEC tournament. What are you seeing in this south region, Bennett? And what are your thoughts on this one overall? Yeah, I mean, when the bracket was released, I immediately thought this was going to be the most difficult region. I mean, you go kind of, you know, team by team here. Arizona is obviously one of the better one seeds. Tennessee, a lot of people thought should have been a two seed and ended up being a three seed after that SEC tournament win. Villanova, clearly a strong team. Houston, a lot of the projection systems really like for them to be a five seed even after beating Memphis on Sunday was a bit of a surprise. And then Illinois is another really strong team. So all in all, I think, you know, this is the most competitive region tops bottom. And I think, you know, from a bracket kind of building standpoint, as you're approaching this, you do kind of have to go against the grade in my opinion. And I think it makes sense going over back to kind of the pick percentages, about almost half of brackets right now are picking Arizona. And I think this field is just so competitive that I do think it makes sense to deviate. So is there a particular team you're thinking you may want to deviate with, because like you've got options. You know, we talked about, you talked about Houston. I think that that could be a team that people could turn to. They're the five seed here. We've got Michigan as the 11th. We'll get really crazy. But you know, when you're trying to deviate off Arizona, what is the primary alternative for you here? Yeah, no, absolutely. I think in terms of just odds to reach the final four, I think Tennessee and Villanova stand out as the kind of next tier below Arizona. They're out to their both, you know, 18, 19% advanced to the final four. And then Houston and Illinois would be kind of a tier below that. But I think in a smaller pool, it makes more sense to go with the higher odds pick. So Tennessee or Villanova. Tennessee, like I said, probably should have been a two seed does a really good job of generating extra possession. So if they're not shooting well, they can kind of stay in games. And then, you know, Villanova obviously, you know, a very veteran team has been in these kind of games before. So, you know, I could definitely see either of them, you know, making a pretty decent run. Yeah. That would be fun to imagine if we do get that number fire saying that that Tennessee would be a 55% to win that game. And we heard Bennett talking about Houston being a team that the numbers love. Do your numbers love Houston too? And what's your view of this south regional? Yeah. So I actually heading into the tournament, I thought I'd be talking a lot about Illinois. This is a team I really like Kofi Kober and the big. I think my numbers are underestimating them because they've been missing a player under Kerbello who was hurt and they worked them back pretty slowly into the back of the season. Ever since I saw this kid play last year as a freshman, I thought he had potential to be big 10 player of the year. And he's working his way back. But then the bracket comes out and it's like, oh, well, dang, they got that second round and they got that 32 matchup with Houston. And I actually have Houston as the second best team in this region. So yeah, I like Houston a lot. They are missing Marcus Sasser who is one of their guards, a great shooter. He hasn't played for a while. So their excellent numbers reflect their play without him. I think it's always in the long run going to be hard to miss someone who can shoot higher than 40% from three, which Sasser does. Another thing about Houston, they have, I like to call him Kevin Durant. Fabian White, last year was one of these workhorse guys that got on the offensive glass and kind of did the dirty work for that team. He's turned into Kevin Durant. He wears number 35. He went from shooting like two three pointers all season last year to hitting 40% of his three pointers this year. So he's kind of a critical piece of that team. So I do like Houston and yeah, probably don't don't pick Michigan to the Final Four. Might talk about them later on instead, but and then it doesn't want to go to Arizona for this one. He's thinking that the public may be overvaluing them. What's your view of Arizona here and who do you think is your pick for the Final Four? And you can also by pool size if you want, but like just in general, what team are you zeroing in on here? Yeah, I actually went through a phase this weekend where I was kind of doubting Arizona. They kind of fallen in my numbers. They had lost at Colorado. They let a pretty bad Stanford team hang with them in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament. And then I turned tuned into the final and they just kind of obliterated UCLA in the second half of that game. It was it was kind of what we expect from this Arizona team passing like a lot of passing and a lot of beautiful passing. So I think Arizona is pretty good. Oh, yeah, that's what I was going to say. So, but, but I do think there's probably some value in picking against them. The more I think about it. So, yeah, I think this could be a good spot for maybe Houston. Okay. Yeah, Houston is a pretty good team too. Yeah. Houston's a 5C. Tennessee the 3C. What about you, Jessica? What's your view of who could be in the Final Four from the South Regional? Yeah. So I love Arizona here personally. You know, Houston or Tennessee would be my backups. Nova, not so much, but they would be my fourth choice. And originally when I did my first bracket, I had Houston losing to Gonzaga in the Final, but it was mostly based on efficiency numbers. And I decided to pivot back to Arizona. We'll see if that really works out for me. And again, I like Gonzaga and I'm not comfortable taking Arizona because it's a public side here again when I look at my numbers. But so I'm going to take Arizona. Yeah, they're currently 44% in the public brackets to advance to the Final Four over there. But it definitely makes sense based on what Ed was talking about, based on what your numbers are saying. And Houston, intriguing. I'll put it that way for sure. Now, we talked about Villanova, Jessica. You mentioned how you're not really into them. Why? You know, what's kind of the key drawback for you? Is that matchup with Tennessee looming? Are you worried about sister Jean kicking in the second round? You know, what pushes you off of Villanova here? In the sweet 16, that's where I have them dropping off against Tennessee and causing an upset. I feel like Tennessee would be the dogs in that matchup. And they're going to, you know, cause upset and kill and Villanova is going to have to say goodbye. What about you, Bennett? You look at the upper seeds here in this south region. At Arizona, you talked about, you know, probably finding a way to not pick them. But what's your view of Villanova, Tennessee, et cetera? Are you thinking we might see some shakier, higher seeds in this region or no? Yeah. I mean, I think all these teams are, you know, worthy of potentially getting to the final four. And I think it's one of those things where it kind of depends on pool size. I think in a smaller pool, you can probably go with like a Tennessee or Villanova, a larger pool, go with Illinois or Houston. And it's also one of those things if you're one of those people that does multiple brackets and you're doing a few brackets in the same pool, I think this is the kind of region where you're kind of rotating out final four teams and trying to kind of get exposure to all these teams. I think these are, you know, some of the best teams in the field and they just kind of all happen to drop against each other here. But I, yeah, I think all these teams would be kind of, you know, worthy final four teams. And that's kind of why I'm looking to pick against Arizona here. If there's chaos, try to take advantage of the chaos by being a little bit different. I think that's the way to view things here in the South Regional. Okay, let's go down to you, Ed, because I know how much you hate picking up sets. I'm going to make you do it first for the South Regional. We got Loyola Chicago. They're going to get some buzz because they always do. It's March. That's obligatory. They're a 10 seed. They'll face Villanova if they beat Ohio State in the second round. Are you going back to Loyola Chicago this year or any other higher seeds you think could do some damage here in the South Regional? Yeah. I mean, I have Ohio State winning by two. So that's clearly going to be close 7-10 matchup. In terms of upsets, I mean, I mean, Michigan I have as a three point favorite in this game. So I think that's a good spot. 11 over a 6. Loyola Chicago. I don't know. I feel like they're going to get picked a lot. And I think I have high respect for this Ohio State program. They're a really good team. EJ Liddell is a heck of a player. Like if this guy were four inches taller, you know, he could be like a top three pick for the next NBA draft. And he already does a lot of amazing things. So I really like the Ohio State team. I'm not picking Loyola Chicago. I like Ohio State to move on there. You mentioned the public stuff in Loyola Chicago with 47.8% to win that first round game versus Ohio State based on the public percentages. So people are, you know, that sounds about right. Right. I mean, they had just the fantastic game where they took down Illinois to go to sweet 16 last year. I had the final four run a couple of years ago. Yeah, that plays into the mind of the public. It will. And it certainly will. And I think that Ben was talking about how the public percentages may change throughout the course of the week. That's one where you could see their number go up. You get more casual people entering later in the week. Haven't filled their bracket yet. They see Loyola Chicago looking for some upsets. I can see that one increasing. So again, keep aggressive. Who's being picked? Just if you go to ESPN, you click on who picked whom. That'll show you who is going how far in each bracket. Okay, let's go to you, Jessica. You already gave us San Diego State in the Midwest. So let's go to the south here. You're talking about some teams that could do some damage down there. Any teams catching your eye in the south regional as potentially upset city for you? Yeah, so I have in the first round, I have Michigan beating Colorado. I also have we were just talking about Lola beating Ohio. But I do have them only making it to the second round and then Nova coming in and beating them there. And then I have like I mentioned, I have Houston too, who going to the second round that he's going to the sweet 16. But again, I have Arizona taken over. Okay, perfect. Then let's finish up with you. We talked through most of the upset. So you're anything else catching your eye in terms of the south regional? No, I mean, I like Michigan as well as kind of a fake upset. I just don't decide to hang with Hunter Dickinson and move to the other place. I'll take them and then I like Lola to win one game Ohio State. You know, they've had a good year, but they've kind of struggled as of late and they have a couple of key rotation players. Kyle Young and Zach Kee are both questionable. So that's kind of a wait and see, but I'll lean the ramblers for now. Although I do think Nova will probably take care of business. Although if they do match up, you know, it should be should be a good one, but I just don't think they're quite as good as the world last year. Yeah. All right. Any final thoughts from anyone else on the south regional or should we move on to Midwest? All right. Let's do it. Let's move over to the Midwest right now where Kansas is the one seed. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'm not a big 10 title, but again, kind of some decent depth here. Again, probably just like my bias Northwestern brain watching them get obliterated by Iowa. Like I have that like burned in my brain at this point. So Jessica, I want to start with you here. What's your view of the Midwest in terms of who you think could go to the final four here? Yeah. So this is well for the Midwest. This is the only region I have zero upsets in the first round to be honest. And then going on to the second round I have this is where all the upsets begin in my opinion. I have San Diego State making the upset with Kansas. I have Iowa with Providence and then I have LSU beating Wisconsin. And then I have Auburn winning. Now I even have LSU going as far as beating Auburn within the sweet 16. And then I have San Diego State. Like I mentioned, beating Iowa and then San Diego State going all the way. Okay. So you have San Diego State doing the whole thing. I like that. Is that something? Is that something that will change for you based on like pool size or is it a situation where you just objectively think that defense is going to fuel them? Even if you're like a smaller pool, you're going to San Diego State all the way? Possibly. But I mean I love defense and I feel like there's got to be a Cinderella story somewhere in this madness. Sure. And I feel like San Diego State has a good chance of being that. Why not San Diego State? All right. Let's go to you Bennett. We got San Diego State as Jess's call here in the Midwest. Where are you looking here? What are Number Fire's numbers saying? What do you think about this region? Yeah. So Number Fire has Kansas and Auburn as kind of the two top teams. In my opinion, I think this is the weakest region in the field. So, you know, Providence in Wisconsin are two of the probably lowest rated top four seeds in the field. I happen to draw the same region. I think, yeah, we're looking at the Number Fire projections here. Kansas and Auburn both grading out, you know, as the kind of top two picks, although I will say going back and looking at the public pick percentage, it doesn't look like Kansas. The kind of delta between their public pick percentage and their kind of true odds is quite significant. So kind of similar to Arizona where we have about 44% of people so far picking Kansas. So I think, given that, I do kind of want to take a look elsewhere. I'm honestly not a huge fan of Auburn, but I think you can justify it given how many people are taking Kansas and given kind of the lack of depth in the field. I do think this Iowa team is playing really well right now. And, you know, if I had to take it, especially if you're going to be in a larger pool and taking Zaga, kind of like what we talked about in the last region, but if you're going to try to be different somewhere, I think, you know, Iowa is an interesting place to look. And that is something to keep in mind. If you are going with the chalk at the National Champion, it does incentivize being a bit different elsewhere. And, you know, if you have an alternative you like to win the National Champion, then find ways to be different elsewhere. Maybe that is taking Iowa over Kansas or something of that nature. That could be a route for doing so there. You mentioned the public pick percentage of Kansas. They are at 44% right now to make the final four over at ESPN. But their odds to make the final four at Fandall Sportsbook are two to one, which is 33% implied. So there's a pretty big gap between there and there. So, Ed, I want to go to you. Let's say you're looking at Kansas. Maybe your numbers are higher in Kansas than in the South Side of the region. So, Ed, this is your interview with this region. And if you're not going Kansas, where are you turning instead? Michael Craig texted me during the selection show and he said Midwest region, FN blows in order to Providence Four. Question mark? And that doesn't, that doesn't, so probably, the worst-seeded team here is Wisconsin. Yeah. If Michigan were to play Wisconsin I would make Um, and, uh, so Wisconsin is, is vastly over seeded. Providence is, is been the king of winning one score games, which is why they're, they're up so high. Actually, Iowa is the third best team in this region behind Kansas and Auburn. Um, man, what a fun team. Keegan Murray is like a joy to watch. I mean, this guy is athletic. He shoots threes. If Iowa only played defense, uh, you know, they could be a legitimate final four, fourth threat every year. But, um, yeah, I was riding high, um, I don't know. I mean, Kansas is the best team in this region. Um, you know, they have the wings, Ochaibajie and Christian Brown that I'm pretty sure everyone's been saying it brown, even though it's written brawn. So I'm going to go with that brawn. Yeah. So they're really good on offense. They've kind of slipped on defense. Um, but I mean, I still do have Kansas and Auburn as the best two teams. Uh, I think you go with one of them and I would give the edge to Kansas. Yeah. Uh, Mike Craig, the guy you mentioned, um, is a professional sports better. A guy we've had on cover in the spread, very smart guy. So if you're going to listen to someone who comes to like college athletics, I'd listen to Mike Craig. And if Mike Craig thinks this region sucks, that is, uh, that's pretty interesting to me. And I was reading Brandi Gajula's work over at Number Fire and he was running down the most over seated teams in the entire region. I believe that Wisconsin and Providence are both up there for sure as well. Okay. Let's talk about Providence. They are the four seat here. And are they overrated enough where you consider the other SD state in this same region and maybe go with the Jack rabbits in that first round, or is a situation where you just have no interest in going towards them to make a run? Um, I, I, I am usually so exhausted this week that I have no interest in even thinking about who to pick in round of 64 games. I'm, I'm usually going to go with the favorite. I have Providence and a favorite as much as I would like to pick against this overrated team. Um, I'm going to do the lazy thing and go with the four seat here. It's not ladies, it's right, but it does get interesting in the next round. Yeah. That's where you get to Iowa. And let's actually want to talk to Jessica about Iowa because it's interesting because with the way they play, it's a pretty volatile like approach because they take a lot of threes. And that can lead to some very high highs, but if you're not hitting the threes, that can lead to some rough stuff as well. The defense, not great. So when you're looking at Iowa, how do you view them in this region? Do you think they could legitimately make a run or does that volatility scare you off? No, I mean, that's exactly why I have them losing to SDSU. I think that they beat Providence and keep in mind when I looked at my projections too, this is one of the teams where, um, I have them only winning by like one or two points. And again, I just feeling like you, of course, would want to just, you know, think you'd want to just constantly take the favorites, but there's going to be upsets. And so this is also an opportunity for, uh, Iowa to be able to beat Providence. And then like I said, move on to SDSU, but even with a, but I'm just going back to San Diego state's, uh, defense and being able to handle business. Yeah, absolutely. Okay. Let's go to Bennett then let's talk about the rest of this region, open things up here beyond just Providence, beyond just Kansas, et cetera, et cetera. Any upsets you're seeing into this Midwest regional, because you, like you said, it's not the best bracket, maybe incentive to, uh, to fade the public here with Kansas being such, uh, you know, such a heavy favorite. What are you looking to in terms of deviation in this region, especially as it changed some offsets here? Yeah. I mean, I think looking at South Dakota state, uh, the jackrabbits, let's do it. That's party. Yeah. Right. I know it's a 13 four, but really the line is only two points and the jackrabbits have the most efficient offense in the country. Uh, they're a really good team. And we talked about Providence a little bit, you know, 12, I think 12 and two and games side by five points or less. So, uh, they've been kind of the top of the Ken Palm luck rankings throughout the whole season. Uh, so I, I do think you can justify taking a shot there. I don't think most people are going to be looking at Vegas odds in your pool and recognize how tight the spread is going to be. I think, you know, 60 or 70% of people will still end up taking Providence if not more. And I think you can kind of, you know, try to pick up an extra point and take the jackrabbits there. I don't expect either of them to make much noise beyond that first game, but it's an, it's an interesting roundup set potentially. Um, the other one that, uh, I wanted to call out was, you know, potential second round matchup. So LSU. So we talked about Wisconsin being potentially over as well. Um, obviously Johnny Davis is not quite a hundred percent. Definitely, definitely didn't look a hundred percent in that Michigan state game in the big 10 tournament. Um, and then just in general, you know, they don't really do a good job of creating extra possession. So offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, things like that. They don't really do much of that at all. So it's a lot riding on, on Johnny Davis. And I just, if he's not going to be a hundred percent, you know, they've won a lot of close games anyway. And it was referring to, you know, how there would be kind of a pick them against Michigan. And I tend to agree. So I think this LSU team could be pretty interesting. They had Xavier Pinson, their point guard was out for a good portion of conference play. And I think they, they are a little slept on because of that. Um, so I have them beating Wisconsin and number fire also agrees. Very vehemently agrees. I would say, uh, with LSU at 67% to win that game, hypothetically versus Wisconsin, something that both those teams get there. Now, Jessica, you've already fulfilled your upset requirement for this bracket with San Diego state going all the way. And the other lowers he did teams you think are interesting in terms of potentially making a run here. Yeah. In the Midwest. Yes. Yeah. I've LSU because I feel like they're, they're on the same lines of SDS, uh, San Diego state. I feel like they have the same thing going for them. They have a good defense, their offense, you know, hopefully if they can click and they can play well, then they'll be able to get a lot further, but not sold on Auburn at the end of the day. Okay. Perfect. That is a good justification as well. Okay. They're up to the Midwest. Let's move now out to the East where Baylor is the one seed and it seems like a pretty tough bracket. The problem is we said that about Baylor last year too, and then they won the national championship. So apparently doesn't matter if Baylor gets a tough draw. So I don't want to talk to you. What are your numbers saying about Baylor here? And what do they say about the relative to the rest of the, a really tough East regional? Yeah. I mean, I have Baylor as the best team here, but, you know, Kentucky's not that far behind. And, um, I really think you can take either, either kind of either one of these teams. I think it's less than a point that separates them in my member numbers. And, um, yeah, again, I mean, these are two teams that belong in the class that, uh, behind Gonzaga. And I think it's pretty close. Um, I don't like Purdue. Um, they're the three seed here. I don't see them doing too much. Um, they've really kind of fallen off in the numbers recently. They got off to a really hot start shooting from three. And, and that is almost completely evaporated over the last eight games. And, uh, I'm also not a fan of, of UCLA. I don't know if it's, I'm still just mad that they beat Michigan last year in the lead eight, but I just feel like, uh, I, yeah, I mean, you know, that, I mean, they aren't pretty high in my numbers, but I just, I, I don't feel like they have that highest ceiling. So, uh, you know, this region comes down to Baylor or Kentucky, flip of coin, pick one of them. Okay. Then it, we've got Ed flipping the coin between Baylor and Kentucky. What are you doing here? You talked about Kentucky earlier as being potentially an undervalued team in terms of the national championship. Is that enough where you would take them over Baylor in the East year? I think so. Yeah. I think those two teams, as I mentioned, are kind of one A and one B in this region. Um, also not particularly so long for do. Um, but yeah, no, I think those two teams are kind of a cut above. I think Baylor has been really impressive this year, just in terms of, you know, being able to kind of rebound from last year, lost a ton of players from the national championship team and have still kind of maintained this elite level. They also do a great job of kind of generating extra possessions, forcing turnovers, crashing the glass. Um, the reason I kind of have been leading towards Kentucky is that Baylor does have a couple of key injuries. So L.J. Crier's missed like most of conference play and, you know, he's a kind of key guard for them. And then Jonathan Chuachua, whether they're leading rebounder, he's out for the year. So both those guys have been out for, you know, a month or so, um, they've had some pretty impressive performances, you know, through that stretch. So I don't want to completely write them off. They were still able to beat Kansas at home. And, you know, they've certainly played well without those guys. But I think in terms of just upside, you know, are you going to be able to beat the very best, uh, in the tournament? That's kind of why I'm just leading towards Kentucky at the moment. So we got a coin flip and a lean so far. Jessica, break this tie. Where are you going? In the East Regional, are you leaving from Baylor, Kentucky, or do you have a strong preference for one of those two? Yeah. So I like Baylor. However, whenever I see a single possession when I lean towards the underdog, I mean, I have them meeting UCLA in the sweet 16 and it's a one point game. So I went UCLA in that spot, which ends Baylor's run. I also have Texas and Kentucky on the other side in the sweet 16 with Kentucky squeezing a tight win out there. But ultimately losing to UCLA in the elite eight. Okay, perfect. Let me take Baylor out of here. Let's go back to UCLA, plug that in. And Number Fire does see a pretty tight game. So this is looking like it's going to be a pretty fun regional out in the East. Let's talk about we talked a lot about Providence. Talked about Wisconsin in the other region. And both Ed and Bennett mentioned that Purdue is a team they're pretty skeptical of. And Jessica with Texas advancing to face Kentucky for you. It sounds like you're also pretty low on Purdue. Is that correct? You are right. Yes, I have Texas beating them. Absolutely. I'm not sold on them. But you live in Texas now. Are you like, are you like a little worried? Like, you know, you've got to pump up the home fans here. Right. I'm sorry, but I'm going to have to say nope. Alrighty, let's go down to Ed then and talk about Kentucky because in the second round, facing either Murray State or San Francisco, and those are not bad teams. Like those are pretty tough assignments. Does that do anything for you, Ed, in terms of balancing whether you want to go with Baylor or Kentucky, knowing that the second round match for Kentucky is not overly easy? Well, I so I think the one thing that I've realized about Kentucky is they're not tall. Oscar Sheboy is their center and he's six nine. They don't play anybody taller than that. And I think that's part of the reason why they struggled against Tennessee this year, a team that has length. They've lost twice to to Tennessee. You know, Murray State and San Francisco are two very good teams, but they don't really present those types of challenges. So, yeah, I don't know. I mean, where would they reach? Where where would they finally get to some length? Maybe Purdue? Obviously, they have Zach Eadie at seven four. I would argue he's probably the shortest seven four guy ever to play basketball. But and then, yeah. So, I mean, I'm looking I'm looking at that for Kentucky later. I'm sure a lot of pokes going to be on Virginia Tech in this this first round of 64 games simply because of the upset over Duke. Yeah, I like Texas there. Texas is going to be a more talented team. They've been playing top 15 basketball all year. I don't think Virginia Tech gets it done there at all. And number of fires, numbers agree with you there with Texas being a fifty nine percent to win that game. OK, let's stick with you, Ed, and talk about some higher seeds. Any higher seeds you think have some life in this bracket or would they mostly be just one and dubs? In the in the East, correct. Yep. Yeah, I'm thinking I'm thinking they're most one and dubs. I mean, I'm really going to be rooting for for San Francisco. I haven't favored over Murray State. They have some great guard play, but. It's going to be a tall order to get get past Kentucky. Yeah, whatever stuff. Yeah. So, you know, it's interesting. I mean, I have Indiana winning the play in game and then a very, very, very tight game with St. Mary's actually a program that I love. This is the top 10 defensive team in the nation when I look at adjusted points per possession. But Indiana made a run through the the Big 10 tournament. It wasn't all skill. You know, they went two and one in in one score games. And I thought the end of those games were basically the epitome of why one score games are so random. Got the benefit of some, you know, critical turnovers late in the game from both Michigan and Illinois and then only lost to Iowa because Jordan Bohan and hit a bank in three. So it just yeah, close games are random. But yeah, you know, Indiana did show that they're a really good defensive team. And Trace Jackson Davis is a legitimate NBA level big. So yeah, maybe Indiana of any double digit seed. OK, I like it. The 512 there, Indiana facing off with Wyoming for their play in game to get there. Let's go to you, Bennett, as well. Talking about we talked about some higher seats at Ed. Talking about San Francisco, especially being one at least to get one win under the belt, but then facing Kentucky. Any other upsets you're seeing in this first round or potentially beyond for you, Bennett? Yeah, so I agree with Ed about Indiana if they're able to advance against Wyoming. I know the recent, you know, success in close games in the Big 10 tournament is certainly a thing. But if you go back to some of their conference play, you know, they had quite a few close games that did not go their way. And I believe they have a losing record in those type of games. So I do think they're better than the record indicates. And I could see them posing problems for this very talented St. Mary's team. I will disagree with Ed about Votek. I think they I'm Texas is a really good team, but I think this is going to be a really good game. And I think they have an opportunity to pull an upset here. I think either team could post some problems for Purdue. I just think Purdue defensively, especially a team like Votek, who their offense is, you know, very much predicated on, you know, running all these kind of different ball screen actions and, you know, putting Purdue bigs in these different kind of pick and roll actions and things like that. They've really, really struggled. And the turnovers for Purdue have also gone up considerably. So I think whoever wins that Votek Texas game is going to be in a great position potentially gets the second weekend. Okay. So Purdue is a three seat, 11 for Virginia Tech. That could be an interesting one there. What about for you, Jessica? Any upsets your eye here in the East Regional? Yeah. So I have St. Mary's, North Carolina and Murray State as one and done teams in this region. Okay. And then Texas in round two as well as UCLA knocking off Baylor, as I mentioned before. And I had UCLA coming out of this region. So then that makes another upset again for Kentucky. Alrighty. So UCLA pretty lively here for Jessica. Let's put Kentucky over here and see what that game would look like. And Number Fire has that one as being very tight with a 55% win odds for Kentucky there. So if you go your one possession, your one possession rule there would favor UCLA. Okay. Let's slide on up now to our final region to discuss. And luckily, not a lot to discuss at the top in here because we're going to talk about Gonzaga as being the national championship pick. Bennett, for you, do you see any true contenders in this West to potentially knock off Gonzaga or is it a no brainer? Even if you deviate from them winning the national championship that they are getting out of the West for you. Yeah. I mean, it's interesting for some of these other top seeds, like we were talking about the one seed to some of these other regions and we were looking at the kind of ESPN, you know, pick percentage versus what the odds are on Number Fire or any other projection site. And for a lot of these teams, there was like a pretty large gap between the pick percentage and the true odds. But for Gonzaga, they're pretty much right in line. I think about 58 or 59% of people are picking Gonzaga to go to the final four and that's pretty much what the odds we have on site suggests. So I don't really see a need to differentiate and go elsewhere. I'm probably a bit lower on Duke than Consensus as well. I just think they're upside is certainly there but I think a lot of people will be picking them. So I think it makes sense to kind of buy into that variance the other way and fade them. So I don't really see a reason to not go with Gonzaga in the final four here. And it sounds like we're in Consensus there too because we all like Gonzaga to win the national championship for this year. So Jessica, we talked to you about that Duke team. They're the two seed down here, but they would face Texas Tech. And you're talking about San Diego State's defense, Texas Tech, not too shabby there either. Is that a spot where you're thinking you're going with Texas Tech to knock off Duke? And what's your view of the non-Gonzaga teams in this West? Yeah, so just like you mentioned, that's where I do. I have Duke facing Texas Tech in the sweet 16 and Texas Tech winning this game. I just, again, it's coming down to here they are. This is the team that has one of the best defenses. And I feel like that's where it's gonna be able to show up. Now Gonzaga though, they're the whole package basically. And I feel like this is where it could be a tight game, but I still see Gonzaga being able to be able to beat them and move on. Alrighty, Ed, what about you? Non-Gonzaga teams in this West regional, obviously we're knocking the knock off Gonzaga, but your broad thoughts on teams like Duke, Texas Tech, Arkansas, et cetera in the West? Yeah, I mean, Arkansas is a really good team that has gone through the gauntlet of the SEC. A lot of top 25 teams from that league, not a push over by any stretch. Obviously for me, it gets really interesting in Duke there. I mean, we could see a situation in the next NBA draft where every single one of those guys goes in the first round, starts with Paolo Boncero, who is a 6'10, kind of stretch four. He is a better shooter than whatever his three point percentages this year, which has been bad. And then there's a lot of talent on that team. I think my line to myself has been like, this Duke team should never lose a game. Like that's the level of their talent, but they do. And I mean, Virginia Tech just lit them up from three. Partially that was not the best defense from Duke, but also that was just Virginia Tech just lit it up. And I've seen other Duke games where their defense was pretty decent. I would say actually pretty decent for some of Coach K's teams over the last six or seven years. So yeah, you can imagine Duke going down pretty early. You can imagine Duke winning this entire tournament. So they're a very interesting team to me. Let's talk to you Ed about, one thing you mentioned there was a talent. And one thing you've alluded to in the past, you talk about in your book is the predictiveness of preseason polls because they are wisdom of crowds. They indicate talent expectations and how that's how you can pinpoint teams like when Kentucky made around a couple of years ago where preseason polling had a very high, didn't do well during the regular season, but the talent was there. Why do you weigh that in to your numbers? The preseason polling, what is the draw to you and what does it add to your model? Yeah, so the preseason polls not actually in my model anymore. I use a different preseason component, but I certainly reference the preseason poll when I do my analysis and I make sure people try to understand that you should take that seriously. There's a lot of really interesting examples this year. Arizona was outside the top 25 and usually that's a red light for me. Like, oh, wait, how far is this team gonna go? Arizona is an example of a team where I'm kind of like, how did the pollsters all miss this? They're fast, talented, athletic. Maybe you didn't see that it was all gonna come together under this new coach so soon, but I mean, there's clear NBA talent on that team. Also, when you think about this Duke team, they were ninth in the preseason AP poll. That's not indicative of the talent that they've shown on the floor this year. It's actually probably indicative of the performance on the floor, but not necessarily of their talent, of their ceiling. And then they have UCLA second. I've already said that I don't like this UCLA team, but and there's certainly not, I don't think anyone's gonna say that they're the second best team in the country by that poll, but the preseason AP poll there supports more Jessica's opinion of UCLA than mine, for instance. So there's a lot of interesting insights. Like if you're gonna get serious about kind of analyzing teams, who's gonna go to the final four, who has a legit chance to win, like go poke back after that preseason poll, like make that part of your process. Yeah, absolutely. You can get some good signals from wisdom of the crowd as always. People putting their money out there, that can lead you the right direction a lot of times. Okay, let's talk to you Jessica now and talk about this West regional. What are some teams you're thinking maybe vulnerable early on? Some higher seeds that you think could be at risk of an upset here in this West regional. Oh, well, honestly, I'd have to say, well, Arkansas, cause I see Vermont, I have them getting out and Vermont going, making it to the second round, even actually going all the way to the sweet 16. You know, when you look at the Vermont's four factors, you know, they're pretty good. Effective field goal percentage, their third turnover percentage, their 16th, their defensively offensive rebounds, their number one. So I feel like they're gonna be an upset, they'll cause an upset to Arkansas. And that's pretty much really in this one that I have as far, cause you know, I have Texas Tech going pretty far, Duke going, yeah, I'd say that'd probably be the only one. Okay, Bennett, looking for some upsets out here in the West. We got Vermont from Jessica. Anything on your end that you're seeing here, Bennett? Yeah, I actually kind of like that Vermont pick. I just think they're a really experienced team that can slow it down and they take a ton of threes. So they kind of play this, you know, high variance style of play. Arkansas is really good, but they might be vulnerable in that matchup. Some other upset potential picks that I was looking at, Davidson over in Michigan State kind of popped out to me right away. Sparty really struggles to take care of the ball. Davidson isn't necessarily gonna turn them over, but they do an excellent job of taking care of the ball themselves. And I think defensively, Davidson does a really good job of kind of denying the paint and trying to make you shoot in Michigan State is definitely not a, you know, elite shooting team by any means. So I think, you know, Davidson and that 7-10 matchup poses, you know, potential upset there. I guess for the other possible upset I was thinking about, depending on who wins the playing game, whoever faces Alabama, I definitely consider them to be vulnerable. Obviously it kind of depends on who they play, but I think that Crimson Tide are just a bit sloppy in general, they turn it over a ton. They take half their shots from three and they make 30% of them, which is not great. So I think they're, you know, a really high variance team where, you know, if everything's going right, you know, they could win a few games but they could also bow fairly early. So I think that's one to monitor after we see kind of what the matchup ends up being. I wanna stick with that quickly there, Bennett. Talking about the volatility because that's something they played a key factor in Virginia with the UMBC game because they played this really slow pace, left them more susceptible to variance and to an upset in that situation. Are there any teams you see Bennett, like some higher teams may get some buzz this week that are in that like high variance category who make it upset as a result of kind of the style of play that they decide to apply, whether it be heavy reliance on the three or pace, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah, I mean, well, we talked about Duke. I think they're kind of like the, one of the higher variance teams in the country where they play Gonzaga in the non-conference and they look dominant and then they play Syracuse in the ACC tournament and it's a nail biter. So I think they're certainly at the top of the list in terms of just like high volatile teams. I guess as it more leads to like style of play, I mean, there are certain profiles where you look at some of these top teams like Villanova, for example, is a team that plays fairly slow and is kind of relying on the three. They might be susceptible to getting knocked off. Although I do think they're fairly talented and probably a bit higher on them than consensus, but that's kind of the profile that you're looking for in teams of like, a team that just kind of plays slower, slows the game down and kind of takes like these kind of high variant shots. Nova's a little bit different because they don't turn it over very frequently at all, but that's the kind of type of team you look for and think, oh, they might be susceptible for potentially getting knocked off. Now, what about you Ed? It's not like you want to jump in there was something that you wanted to touch on here in the West? Yeah, absolutely. Let's talk about Alabama. So this is a team, Bennett talked about their three-point shooting statistics of which you can go, ah, yeah, they're dumb, right? But Naples is just doubling down on the importance of the three-point shot and he's letting his guy shoot it because he thinks his guys can make it. And so far this season, they haven't been. Javon Quinterly is their point guard and he made 43% of the threes last year. He is up to 28% this season. Clearly his true skill level is somewhere between 28 and 43. So actually I have Alabama about 19th in my numbers right now. That is with the poor shooting. Last year they were probably, I don't know, sixth and they had some incredible shooting numbers. Like the type of shooting numbers that you say are gonna regress in the NCAA tournament, they made it all the way to the lead eight, which is where their seed suggested. I think the true level of that program is probably right in between. I think they're probably low teens type program overall and we just haven't seen it yet. And obviously if you're gonna make a run in the tournament, you just have to get hot, right? And that doesn't necessarily show your skills as a program. But Alabama's a team that, yeah, it's a high variance team that I think can win some games. I think they're better, well, they're definitely better than the record. And I think they have potential beyond that because I think they will shoot better. And let's not forget, they were already beating Gonzaga this year. Yeah, they're beating. If you're gonna do in Alabama, if you're eating Gonzaga already this year, I don't expect either of them to do it again, but definitely in Duke's case and probably in Alabama's case, like there's the talent to do that. Yeah, Alabama at their best has beaten Gonzaga, Houston and Baylor. So it's either who's who and at their worst, you know, they're bound out to a Vanderbilt and some of these teams in the SEC kind of taking them down to the wire. So they're just gonna be a really interesting team to watch. They do play a lot faster than some of these teams, I would say, are like susceptible to upsets, which is something. That's a key point to make too, where volatility can be a bad thing, but it can also be good because it can lead to, you know, you having a better chance. If you can increase that volatility against team where you're a big underdog, that could be a positive thing. And that kind of played in Virginia's favor when they won the national championship. It can swing both ways, helpful to know which teams have that volatility, whether it be for good or for evil, I guess is the way we could say that there. Okay, that does ramp up our region by region breakdown, but I want to go around the horn here and talk to each person and see if there's anything else they want to get off their chest in terms of teams they like, teams are skeptical of, strategies they may want to deploy here. Jessica, I'm gonna start with you. We got, we got San Diego State going all the way. Anything else, standing out to you in terms of things you want to mention before people throw out their brackets for this year? Just, I mean, I guess just have fun with it. Like I said, I can do all these, I feel like you can plug all these numbers in and then the complete opposite thing can happen. But like I said, some big upsets, I like San Diego State, I like UCLA, Texas Tech. If you can see, I have a theme going on as far as defense, but yeah, other than that, just have fun with it and go Gonzaga, this is their year, they can make it happen. And go Aztec, let's not forget that too. We got to get rid of the Aztecs as well in the Jackrabbit. Sentimental favorite for me, at least over there. Find Jessica on Twitter at Gridiron and Wine. And Jessica, people want to find your college basketball betting stuff. Where can they find that? Where, if they want to get your insights from a betting perspective, in addition to your tournament insights too. Yeah, just go to my, go to Twitter at Gridiron and Wine, that's where you'll find me. And I post free plays and a lot of stuff that you'll see, fandom content that you'll be able to find a lot of my picks for, especially when March Madness goes, brackets are fun for me, but I like, let's go day-to-day when it goes to the games. That's where I'll be having a lot more fun. You're gonna be busy, I like that. All right, that is Jessica Gridiron again, find her on Twitter at Gridiron and Wine. Bennett Corcoran is on Twitter at 617, Bennett, Bennett. Any final thoughts for you on the tournament for this year, based on either what you've seen personally or what the numbers say over at Numberfire? Yeah, I mean, just kind of reiterating, but I still think Gonzaga is a cut above. And I think you just kind of have to look for other spots in the other three regions to kind of try your best to deviate, especially if you are in a larger pool, to just kind of try your best to pick a team that is gonna be potentially under-picked and then just kind of go from there and kind of build the rest of it out from there. So I think, if you're gonna pick Gonzaga to win it all, like picking Arizona to go out earlier, picking Kansas to go out earlier, stuff like that, so where you're able to build something fairly unique and that way, if you do nail three of the final four and you have one of them as a team that nobody really selected other than you and maybe one or two other people, then you're in great shape. So I think that's kind of my approach and yeah, best of luck out there. And there were several slots you alluded to where people could deviate from the public too. So it's not as if you have no options. If you don't have to be Gonzaga, the spot where you get different, you can go with Gonzaga and be different elsewhere and benefit and highlight a couple of spots he liked in that regard. Ed is on Twitter at the Power Rank and of course all of his work, all of his numbers over at thepowerrank.com. Ed, where people get that stuff? What are you doing for this week? I know nothing on your plate, I'm sure. But any final thoughts for you on the tournament as well? Yeah, so there's a lot of stuff going on. If you sign up for my free email newsletter, you'll get an email after you sign up that has all the stuff that's going on in terms of all my predictions and the bracket wisdom series. There's links to everything there. So my final thought about this tournament is about predicting upsets. So we all know that we can trust the analytics and we can go and see things like the market favoring Michigan, number fires and the power ranks numbers are favoring Michigan. Okay, we can go with that upset. And we can look at games in which things are close. I think one that we talked about, actually, Texas is only about a two point favorite in the numbers I trust. So if you're gonna go with Virginia Tech, that makes sense too, right? Cause that point spread is small. But a lot of you are gonna find that unsatisfying, right? It's like, oh, who's the next UMBC that wants to, that's gonna become the Cinderella? And I did some work into this by looking at all underdogs this season in college basketball that were six point or more underdogs and looked at the characteristics of how they pulled off those upsets. And you can ask, oh, well, do they slow the pace down? The answer is no, at least not on average. Do they shoot more threes? And the answer is no. They actually shoot fewer threes than they normally do compared to the season long average. And the one thing that I found is the biggest, the biggest characteristic of those upset games is three point shooting percentage. Underdogs of six or more points tend to shoot 5.5% from three better than their season long average. And favorites that lose tend to shoot 5.5% percentage points worse. And this is the same trend that we've seen over the last couple of years. And so if you want to predict upsets, you need to predict three point shooting. And that is difficult, if not impossible. I talked a little bit about how I think Alabama's gonna shoot better than they have for the season. And I do believe in that, but I think that's a one or two percentage edge. It's not something I would go with. The results of that study basically mean like, it's difficult, if not impossible to predict who these Cinderella's are gonna be. So yes, if you wanna go have fun and do that, that's all great, more power to you, but it's hard. And me personally, I'm just going with the numbers in those other round games and I'm gonna spend my time figuring out who I think can win at all. Time is a resource at this time of the year. And you wanna dedicate your time in those valuable regions of the bracket. And that is identifying who will advance to the final four, who will in the national championship. And we can talk here about offsets only one. That's why I try to make it a smaller episode of the show for today, because it is not a key within the process in terms of actually winning your bracket. For fun, yeah, it makes Thursday, Friday a bit more juicy, but winning your bracket a different discussion. So again, find all of Ed's work over at the power rank. Also the football analytics show for the Bracket Wisdom podcast series that they are running there too, short, easy to digest episodes all up there, your drive to the gym, at least for me, that you can fit those in there as well. So the football analytics show to get Ed's podcast. You can subscribe to our betting podcast over at the covering of the spread podcast feed. Find that wherever you get your podcast, we'll be back here once again next week to break down the sweet 16 from a betting perspective and get you sent for that. But I wanna say one big thank you to Bennett, Jessica and Ed for swinging by for tonight, breaking down all their thoughts and allowing me to fill out a less dumb bracket for this year. I appreciate all three of you and wish you the best of luck in your brackets. I wanna wish all of you watching the best of luck to you as well. Hopefully the insights you've gained here for today are valuable and can lead to a good week for you. A fantastic March Mad is hopefully some spare cash as well. We're gonna say thank you to everyone for tonight. Good luck. We'll talk to you once again next year. This has been covering the spread, breaking down the 2022 Men's Basketball Tournament.