 Okay, very good morning. I hope you're doing well Gonna go through a couple of different things first of all which you can see to the chart to the side of me Stocks worldwide posting their first back-to-back gains in more than a month quite incredible So just having two days of going up in the equity market globally has been an anomaly of late But yesterday was one of those days obviously we can touch upon now the kind of more Concrete the confirmation at least of the Senate for the US Stimulus package that now goes to the house, but it's going to be kind of fast-tracked from here Generally speaking so now that's now into the system the question of course comes Well, where do we go now? Do we now start to see that price still and it's almost like that that? Positivity is over or do we continue to push higher and I guess these are some of the things that we can discuss as well as The jobless claims a lot of people will be talking about that later Also some virus updates and so on but before I begin don't forget if you are watching this on YouTube to subscribe to the channel It is my birthday today So if you want to give me a treat for my birthday hit that subscribe button And we're all good If you're if you're lucky, we might send you out one of these I've got a bit of of the merch going on the Amplify t-shirt today. So Yeah, let's get this let's get the show on the road So as you can see here then, you know from the the chart back-to-back gains What does that look like from a broader context then selling us up for the session this morning? Well things are relatively I guess calm but a little bit of profit-taking perhaps in the equity space given what we've just said the Dow futures down about 340 the taxes down just over 250 at the moment So t-notes up about eight ticks. You can see here in the bottom right-hand side And then gold gold if anything just backing off slightly from some of the longer-term levels We're going to have a look at some of these charts technically as in terms of the last part of my delivery So I won't touch too much on those at the moment But FX markets the Dixie's down the touch Having seen some weakness Towards the back end of yesterday. So we're down two tents there. So both pairs up Or be a cable relatively flat this morning. Don't forget as well UK data. I think it's because of the lock the lockdown issues but also some of the Ability for the Bank of England to try and counteract this leaking of data and things like that as it goes under review Given some of the things and difficulties they've had in recent months So UK economic data continues to come out early 7 a.m. We had retail sales But it was all backward-looking numbers. So it's not really anything too much to to worry about quite quite honestly So let's go straight into some headlines and let's start then with The Senate what exactly have they done? Well, they passed a historic two trillion Dollar virus rescue package and as I say the financial Crisis package was about 800 billion. So this is far exceeds that one It equates to about 9.5 percent of us GDP if that helps give it some context the package includes Injection of loans tax breaks direct payments for major corporations individual taxpayers So it's very expansive very far-reaching as we said yesterday much of a similar vein to what we had in the UK We've seen in other places So I don't think this is really new information the confirmation of this going through the Senate I wouldn't be expecting that to be like the Ignition then of another upward move. I think we saw that two days ago That was when we had that bigger stock market rally Since 1933 in the Dow and 12 years in the S&P. So it's kind of done in that respect Which does put us put us at quite interesting I guess juncture now for equity markets from whether or not now we start to see a renewed kind of push on the Downside or not a few things though that I thought was quite interesting There are a few people I've seen have mentioned and that is the actually over the course of the beginning of this week So Monday Tuesday Wednesday, generally training volumes Have been relatively low And some would say then you know when we've seen these massive bouts of volatility Obviously it can act as a bit of a trigger point then for real flushing markets You get these our Algorithmic systems also hitting the moves of volume typically is quite high on those days And you can see that period really of mid-march volume really peaked when we were seeing these big Multi swings remember the Dow Since mid-march up until really the end of last week was seeing an average price increment percentage wise about 7% So these are huge moves But that has dropped quite considerably and if anything you know Although we did see we're still seeing some pretty sizable moves in the equity market generally it feels a lot more Let's say smooth in terms of some of the price movement than what we've been seeing of late The other thing as well as the volatility Kind of indexes so the VIX Whether this is looking at the Eurostocks 50 or if you're looking at the more brook broader benchmark the kind of S&P VIX index but generally speaking still elevated but off the initial highs and where we were which were Way above the global financial crisis that we have pulled back now to kind of the sovereign crisis level if that makes you feel That is better so still very high But again volatility decreasing volume generally traded levels decreasing perhaps the general Lockdowns that we're now seeing in mainland Europe in London I know some people have said the FX markets that has is having Implications for some of the traded volume and therefore some of the subsequent movement as well So perhaps I might explain it But a couple of these you could interpret potentially as signals you probably saw The hedge fund manager Bill Ackman of Pershing Square He was loading up and and on his portfolio of his long-only positions now Just looking to rearm and build up more long positions and some of his equity holdings. There's been some other Portfolio manager saying similar type things So I guess these all could be if you're more of a bullish mindset some good signals to be seeing In order for trying to ascertain whether we've hit a bottom or not for me. I'm not quite convinced at this point I do think that there's a potential for more downside because in respect of all these measures And particularly those that we've seen from governments now from the US I mean there's not a lot more now the US can do kind of like the UK They've now played that big they fired that big bazooka the same way of which the ECB The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have done so now it's down to now the development of the virus I think which carries the key as to whether or not We have already found a bottom or we're going to get another retest at those levels And so prudent of course to have an update on the the virus situation We're now a total confirmed cases 472,000 deaths just north of 21,000 I guess when these countries on the left the ones that continue to be the most Underwatch would be Italy 75,000 cases, but deaths now in Italy at 7,500 so more than double that of mainland China US is going to leapfrog them though very quickly Would not be a surprise to see that in the next 24 hours 48 hours I would expect Spain also is being a key area as well, which is growing quite considerably in terms of its death rate The UK is still tracking just just shy of 10,000 for the moment. So if you're looking at that from a trajectory point of view from the rate of number of cumulative deaths New York probably still one of the steepest and that's probably one of the most worrying Given then the US in my mind still has We're still so early in the cycle and to make that have a bit more sense This was a good graphic that I saw from JP Morgan analysts yesterday and this is this is a Simplistic version of just the distributions in order to plot roughly where we are in terms of doing the development of the virus But there's there's two important things here for me And this again is what I think will determine whether or not we've hit a bottom or not in markets and that is The US and the UK and if you actually look at some of these other European countries like Spain for example We're still really in the early development or acceleration phase at this point in time And I would agree with this graphics probably a day or two out of date I'd say probably all of these have shifted slightly Further along the curve But the idea here is being that people like China are way beyond that at the moment as we've discussed at the beginning of the Week they're looking to gradually reopen Generally the infrastructure particularly in places like Wuhan the heart has hit given the origination of the virus in that area And then a full opening if you like on the 8th of April But that's the important point on to but let's finish one one is you know things are going to get a lot worse And at this point yes We have tried to get ahead of that hence the reason why you've got a two trillion dollar rescue package already put Into play because we know it's going to be bad This is very important for I think the reaction the markets are going to have with jobless Quite frankly. I don't think it's important. It is going to be bad We know that so by definition And I don't think it's going to come as a shock And so I think it's potential to move markets might be fairly limited in my opinion. So Here I think these numbers are going to get Drastically worse and as I said the US I feel it's only matter of time. It's almost inevitable They will have to adopt similar type measures to what we've just deployed in the UK this week Which is much more onerous rules more strict about home or being at home in self-containment to stop the stop the spread So that's part one part two is this other part which is down here then the recovery phase Now the recovery phase the reason the interesting thing here is if we go back to here You can see well, let me let me scroll It's probably a better one to look at would be countries. So rather than cities. We're looking here now You've got a lot of the far east nations. So Japan South Korea But there's a few things here that people have been mentioning JP were saying about the recent Infection spike has actually occurred in Hong Kong and Singapore Now suggest as long as the global infection curve is developing Premature relaxation of heightened community risk awareness could set off a rebound of Controlled infection curve or a second wave, you know What if you see this wave here, which is what we're generally living through globally at the moment But as when China reopened that's what we're just suggesting here with Hong Kong in Singapore And you start to see another another renewed spike in cases and deaths Do we then have a secondary more flatter wave perhaps as another round goes through that? for me would be a massive negative for markets because then you know governments and central banks have just got to go even further at that point and Yeah, the question marks on how much, you know, it's kind of like every time you do You fire your bazooka your bazooka becomes a little less effective in terms of trying to manage market Prices because we get accustomed to it in that sense as market participants So they're kind of the two things I'm watching here on this curve one the acceleration Phase particularly in the number of these mainland European UK and particularly the US and then two Do we see a secondary Wave of infections if there's a premature relaxation of the rules that have been Put into place in order to delay and contain this virus in these other areas that are further down the curve So that for me is going to be particularly key. I think All right Quick look at some other things. This is some UK data did come out earlier this morning Was UK retail sales? But honestly, it doesn't even warrant me talking about to be quite frank because this is February data And the virus in terms of its impact in the UK hasn't really started to pick up until The middle of March and so this data really is redundant But one thing we do have later To my understanding according to the Bank of England press office the Bank of England rate decision is still going ahead today as per normal I would Anticipate though. It's going to be a non-event in the fact that we've already seen them have their inter meeting Decision anyway, so we know what the situation is in that respect. So we'll see how that plays out I'll update you more as we get closer to that event Otherwise Having a quick look at the US session. Well, let's just check mainland Europe You've got the well, there's nothing really too much easy the economic bill is in money suppliers I'm gonna be market moving so going to the US session you get the GDP Numbers for Q4 remember though, you know, we're in the end of March now So these Q4 numbers are very dated and the market is much more obsessed now about forward-looking Remember, even if Q4 GDP comes out this afternoon in the US unrevised at 2.1% That means nothing because Q2 potentially could be a negative 30% So hence the reason why these old data points particularly backward-looking are really quite irrelevant at this point in time The one load it probably is going to draw a lot of attention as this one the initial jobless claims You can see here on investing comm is expected to be a one million reading. This was a graphic that I saw Last night, you might have seen me tweet it This was looking at a couple of just a selection of Wall Street banks and their expectation Generally of what the initial unemployment claims and projections are for today Now estimates range as you can see here from just sub one million up to four million According to city for the week ended March 21st The low end of this range so even if I was to take UBS that would be more than three fold increase from last week's number Just to give you a guide The number of states specifically citing COVID-19 related layoffs Is why these estimates are so high and they've already been quite explicit in that it's going to impact the numbers Many states reported increased layoffs in service related industries as you would imagine Accommodation food services specifically as well as transportation the warehouse industries these types of things The two most recent peaks in jobless claims that we've had as some context in 1982 and 2008 the financial crisis Were much more gradual Trying to recall the number in my head. I think I was looking at it yesterday There was more like seeing half a million clips in terms of the jobless change when it came to the financial crisis Because remember at that point it was companies gradually going kind of going under going bankrupt So it meant that there was these gradual waves of unemployed whereas with a virus. It's Contain and delay everyone must work from home Everyone the every small medium business needs to make an immediate decision about their economic future remember The scary time was just a week ago. You didn't know what the government were going to do So that uncertainty then could have been a trigger for these small businesses Who can't afford then to take that risk and have to cut their Their staff and have quite a large layoffs across the board. So hence the reason why this is very different This is going to be a much more elevated number as you can see city on the top end four million GS as we discussed on Monday two and a quarter million UBS a little bit more pessimistic with the figure Well, I shouldn't say pessimistic. It's probably the wrong word a little bit more low ball with their number 860 But as I said in summary I mean would I look at this figure and it's kind of drama and it's kind of like a non-farm parallel release We all wait for this figure Yes, it's going to be interesting. Yes, obviously it is a reality of the situation these are factual layoffs, but in terms of then adding to this jobless claims, but At the end of the day, I think it's been so well telegraphed and talked about I don't think now four million I mean four million is toppy, but a number in the millions I don't think it's as surprising perhaps as what it could have been that's what I mean If the number is let's say north of four million I guess then it could add some additional weight to the just general precarious nature of markets from a sentiment point of view at this point in time And perhaps that could trigger a bit of a move lower inequities and a bit of a flight to quality bit Perhaps because that would suggest that things are actually the worst case scenario so to speak Let's have a quick look at a couple of charts before I do just a quick word Andy did email me yesterday So feel free to follow and message me on Twitter if you ever have any questions or if you're watching this on YouTube Just leave a comment or a question. I'll always reply throughout the day But I got asked about can Trump Cancell the US election. So this is why I found that the short answer is no He can't under the US Constitution amendment 20 Trump and vice president Mike Pence cannot stay in office past their allotted four-year term without being re-elected If the election does not happen for any reason constitutional rules of succession kick in so One thing to be aware of though Obviously just because it hasn't happened before and just because Constitution has its rules now That doesn't mean that cannot change though an old antiquated law dating back to basically post wartime in 1948 whereby you could have a different Interpretation of the text that was used that could move the date a little from my understanding of what I've read back a little bit I a couple of weeks, but probably you wouldn't be able to go any further than that So if there were a delay probably a very short one and then the election wouldn't actually need to take place So again much is legal text. It's all about One's proof of into how you interpret certain terminology that's used in some of these old Old laws. So yeah, I hope to answer your question. I think the answer is no I can see why you you would ask that question though Given the virus and does he need to delay it in order to get a bit more of an economic recovery up on the way So he's got more of a chance, but to be quite honest I think he's gonna be able to do what needs to be done to spin a bad situation in his favor anyway So I don't think that's gonna happen in terms of I think the election will still go ahead All things being equal at this point. All right, let's have a quick look at some charts. I Just saw the S&P 500 was flashing Session lows This was a chart I had marked up from yesterday You might have seen those I did tweet a few few charts yesterday Don't forget to check out Sam is still sharing all his charts via his Twitter account while he is Not doing the briefings with me for the moment. So here obviously a couple of markups You got the Fed the initial volatility we saw in the Fed announcement Back at the beginning of the week on Monday, then you've got the US stimulus rally So remember the stimulus rally came two days ago So this is just kind of it's almost like buying the rumor sell the fact type price action now that we've seen Because yesterday we peaked we got up to that level which was the hide that you can see here from going back to the 17th and then we just came Back quite aggressively really into the late US session yesterday before we then had a little pop perhaps Just going into the beginning of the Asian session But again under a little bit of pressure this morning that does bring into context perhaps quite an interesting area If I just put my lips on so if we come back down, you've got the S1 level here You've got that double bottom that you can see from yesterday's price activity You can see a bit of resistance there on the pride day on Tuesday and the Fed blip high as well So if we did remain heavy quite a big area of support there to keep an eye on now that we're below Where we had a mark up at around 2448 30 Potentially that could be a downside level to target today if we were going to be Moving any lower? Otherwise a quick look in some other markets. I was looking at WTI crude oil last night and We're pretty much locked in a range bound activity at the moment It's been particularly quiet from the likes of Russia and Saudi and so on so at the moment Respecting this range, you know, and I continue to play that accordingly Unless something really meaningful develops now that meaningful development could be either a comment out of Russia or Saudi or It could be then let's say Joplus comes in at five million that acts as then a kind of ignition for price movement downward in Inequities they start to break some key technical levels. I'd expect then that to also Start to feed through into the the Crude market and just add a little bit of further weight as people become more bearish again about the future prospects for the economy Despite the stimulus and then you'd be looking for perhaps a break We come back up to the level and then look to then play the market back down See perhaps you have to target here at that 23rd low and then you can keep the Second part of the position on looking to target down at these levels here So one Two if that was to materialize again on the upside though similar case really, but just playing the other way So just keeping an eye for this rain top end of the range that we've traded on the week Any break above there? I'd probably be looking then up at around the twenty six dollar handle You can see that that comes in within a 10 cent range of that previous high That we had printed on the 20th just here So pretty much just watching the range for oil for the moment It has been in a bit of a phase of consolidation so far this week for gold markets Yeah, really interesting actually for gold because we've kind of got up to that high yesterday You got a quite a defined clear resistance level here psychologically On the the 1700 in the futures. You can see we ran up to it on Tuesday. We had a retest of it Later on in that session right at the US close and then we've kind of come south ever since that point I was just looking here on a slightly longer time frame. This is a 90 minute So that double top that we were just referring to here. I mean, that's your 1700 and you can see it It is a big level we go back to the beginning of March had a little breakthrough but failed to close above it and Same thing happening again this week And so that continues to be a key level but as we've continued to remain quite heavy It's quite interesting to see we've had a bit of a bounce after the initial test that was seen in what the overnight session and If we come back down to around that 16 12 10 level you can see I've got it marked up here those highs That we previously the market has responded to around a similar price point could be quite interesting And again, if that does start to break down If gold let's say if we have a bit more risk on if equities do start living on the on the upside Then perhaps then we could break through that and see a bit of an extension through to 1600 as a target You've got 1605 as well the s1 before we would get to that point again Any reversal though if if we've talked about those other markets where equities will coming under pressure perhaps if that was to happen That again looking for the market to respond and move back higher in this type of fashion and for it to act now that we've Come down quite aggressively about 1890 dollars for it to act as a bit of a safe haven short term again Just on the intraday basis just given now that it's relatively low comparative to the price action of the last 12 hours in that sense Last thing I'll look at is the pound again. I was just I was having a Chat with a few people online last night Of which I'll show you in a second, but the pounds main is quite buoyant this morning. We've managed to Break you can see the trend line just from some of the near-term price activity that we've had Also then taking out the highs that were seen from the overnight Asia-Pacific session and also from yesterday Evening that's now helping price just continue to edge higher and keeping eye here. You've got the Weekly high coming in at just ahead of the 120 handle now up here is really quite important and What I mean by this is this level here is key because if you start putting on a weekly This is now looking at hopefully you can see my annotations on this chart This is looking at a much longer term Picture of cable here. We start to bring in the e referendum You can see on the left-hand side all the way through the journey of cable if you like nails that 120 was massive You remember me look at the if I just move this so you can make it a bit more clear You know the flushing prices that we had At the beginning of March where it wasn't even that long ago two weeks ago or so as soon as we broke 120 It came crashing down quite quickly then 116 soon became 114 66 the low in the futures, but you can see this sharp recovery that we've had we retested that Got rejected. We've seen a continuation of the bounce particularly with some of the dollar Movement of the weakness on the back of some of the Fed move So here cables at a real key point and where we close today could be quite pivotal if we close above that 120 Does it remain a little bit more bullish? I guess you know sounds your man for making those types of calls from a technical perspective But yeah, that's something that's going to be really interesting I think that's a really big level coming up here around that 120 You got the previous high as I said there at 91 as well in the sterling futures So it definitely would be keeping an eye on that for sure All right One of the things I have been saying is that yeah I was doing a webinar last night and the webinar I was doing if you ever did want to join is On our amplify now, so this is more for the guys who perhaps are watching this on YouTube You've never really you're quite new to the channel So as well as having a small proprietary trading arm amplify, we also have a Training program. There's two different forms. There's one that's like an on-demand Program, which is amplify now, which I'm showing you here So just to quickly run you through this is it works on a subscription monthly service But basically what it is is we've put together Everything that you would need to know To understand financial markets better This for us is the kind of key foundation that any trader would need to have in order to be able to Understand markets correctly. So here we've got kind of chapters where each one of these are lessons But their videos predominantly among 95% of the videos and there's about 75 of them in total From peers the head of trading or from me and you can see here economics 101 So we explain how macroeconomics works how monetary policy works I look at the Fed in great detail for half an hour in the video what you need to look for How do they use their language and things like that? So there's economics equity markets to explain the forex markets the bond market commodity markets So I talk about things like geopolitics or China Supply and demand law these types of things technical analysis, of course trading the news psychology You know, it's very much in depth and actually the other cool thing about this is that every Wednesday night I get to hold a webinar just for the members of this who are online. So whilst they go through this this course content and They also get a level 4 diploma and an accredited diploma So professional qualification they get to improve and enhance their knowledge particularly in the fundamentals But it we also cover risk management trade execution technical analysis as well So check that out. I'll put the link to that into the description of the video for anyone interested. All right. Well, that's it Gonna leave you and I'll See you online any questions though. Just feel free to to leave me a comment. All right guys. Have a good day