 well let's get over to our ms the tim orton don't forget folks you can reach them or every trading day at all the dash oracle dot com that's or dash oracle dot com tim or what's going on brother they are going to over three charges you have to get it i have them i have a great uh... it will take a look at that fixed chart okay let's say uh... which is chart number one it's uh... it's kind it's not a huge divergence here but this is an hour chart and uh... uh... second window up from the bottom is the s p y and one window above that is the early of their so i want to show you what's kind of going on here when you got the vix rising along with the s p y he's yes very fine and i noticed those uh... this is an hour chart so this is kind of a not a major divergence but it's still a divergence but uh... this chart goes back to uh... last august so i guess it's close to a year going back but we had a divergence back in december two thousand twenty-two and another divergence in february of this year and uh... pretty much in having to purchase and now we've been having divergence and so it looks like about mid-june on here and the both got even though the vix is still low it's around fourteen and change yes or a third thirteen change it's still higher than it was in mid-june even though the s p's are higher and so this is like nothing real major but tells me probably upside is coming to an end uh... but my opinion is really no major top year forming is probably more of a sideways pattern okay so and i got out of my position on friday yet and i'm going to set in here and you know today you know if the real wise cop method we're testing that previous high we had here was a last uh... tuesday be what last wednesday we're testing that high yes and and most likely you know i'm just eyeballed here but probably going to have a lot of volume to the previous high of last wednesday and that's uh... that's a little bit more barriers you know the f one c meeting tomorrow at two o'clock eastern announcement right now so this and right after closed and we have google and microsoft coming up with numbers yeah that could be definitely to put some certain volatility in the market so i mean this is not like screaming bearish here but you know the bullish lean kind of went away it didn't really term super promise every year but you know we're starting to uh... season signs also uh... the weakest quarter of the year darts uh... july seven to run into october seven okay and re and we're in that period now uh... flip to uh... the next chart okay it looks like it looks in the bigger picture as it goes back quite a ways uh... back to two thousand seventeen but i do a lot of stuff with the trend trend to me kind of measures it can be forward but that it works best at bottom top says it just can't give you some warnings uh... the bottom window is a ten-day average of the trend yes uh... the next window higher is a twenty one day the next window higher is a six three day yes so you got basically two weeks a month and three months time frames and the beginning of uh... look like about july iraq smack beginning of july all through all three of those time frames uh... uh... hit and bearish uh... categories and that's that pink area i got showed there is uh... so anyhow we get to trend that low for three months in a row which is a six three day thing and you know it's the upside starts to weaken some yeah so you need i guess you need panic you need fear in the market for it for it to move higher and it is going up with really no fear and that's kind of what we're having right now because uh... according to the trend anyhow you know the upside you know just choppy it's not you know a little bit weakly if you also notice i got the uh... as to why circle there uh... on top right top one so anyhow we're running into the uh... you know as high as we had back in early two thousand twenty two right smack at him and uh... so that's kind of a very resistant film you know it could be you know we run into that zone back off and go up again you know maybe create a a trading range here but yeah you know it's interesting to remember you it really had showed us that the last time that we just pulled out we only pulled out a little the panic are the uh... the other panic right came in the market very quickly didn't it right yeah yeah matter of fact i got out and also do you know like the first day down you know the trend really get it got high i think well i think it will go down much went down for a couple more days right after i got in but you know that that signal to some energy to the market to the upside so i'm thinking what i think that done yet right and you know what we kind of backed off you know about this week but last week and uh... the trend on that back off was you know like one of point eight five really didn't have any energy to get going higher again and so and you know we've been rallying up here yesterday we know we broke above uh... couple of previous highs of uh... be thursday and friday of last week we broke above those minor is a minor high on lighter volume yesterday and uh... now today we're above that you know what today's volume the higher than it was in the previous high of last week you know it doesn't look like it i think we're running a little bit of trouble here you know i don't think it is a big short line up uh... that still may happen but no i don't know that's what that's why i can't go around here right now i'm with it that's why i brought up the aspect of the last time we are small pullback and because there was like panic i mean that so that was so intriguing to me like when you explain in that because i could see how that could happen again because uh... i think there's a lot of people including myself that are nervous up here do you know what i mean? it's like okay man you know listen i heard this stat today listen to this stat Tim this is wild because one of the big money managers that uh... Morgan Stanley that was a big bear right he threw in the towel yesterday right but the stat Bloomberg came out with the stat this morning what the stat was is that when you go over a seventy six point eight retracement from the low the bear market low which we just did not since nineteen twenty nine has that not gone to a higher high is that wild? okay, oh the Fibonacci relationship yes yeah, we didn't do the actual statistics but we're way over sixty one point eight yeah, no, we were over the seventy six point eight so when i heard that stat, i said to myself this is intriguing you know anyway i just wanted to throw it out there because it isn't intriguing but at the same time i can picture that you get a short term pullback and you have that going and then you know those little panics stay right there Tim we've got a quick break folks Tim and I are going to be coming right back we have the Dow Industries right now up sixty three and Aztec's up one thirteen S&P's are up eighteen Tim and I are coming right back folks welcome back folks, down, Dow Industries right now up sixty three we get the Aztec up one ten S&P's are up seventeen, we're talking about man, it's the Tim Ord and okay so Tim, you want to go to the next shot? yeah, we can go to the next one, this is oh no, we can stay with the trend pardon? just tell me who you want to do okay, number three be good okay i'm ready this is just a real simple thing and it's like kind of a no-brainer but this is a short term, doesn't look at the big term, in other words this thing can term bearish next week but the bottom window is the eighteen day average of the advanced decline percent for GDX, next window up is the GDX up, down volume percent and in a nutshell if they're above minus ten, both of them markets in an uptrend period and below minus ten, GDX in a downtrend period and they both turned up you know pretty much close to July first both turned up, turned up above minus ten and even though the market did retrace here last week a little bit both of those indicators remain well above minus ten, so you know, we're in the twenties right now, both of them around the twenty-five plus twenty-five range yes so uh... we're an uptrend and nothing really, how far we'll go, we don't know but as long as that remains blue, I guess you might say, that's when both indicators are above minus ten uh... the uptrend should continue and I went back as far as you could go forget, when did GDX begin? uh... I think it began in two thousand and eleven maybe uh... let me get a fire right now, but I know I love this chart Tim, because you know I love it so much is that what you had is that you had the uh... aspect of the uh... even though the two thousand six, two thousand six, maybe twenty second, two thousand six, yeah okay you know, because even when it was going sideways, I mean you know the GDX you know pulled back a little head, it had some real good strength, we had a couple days of strength but you just pulled back, but yet that this stayed higher, much higher actually, which is pretty cool yeah yeah, it kind of, well it's got the advanced client in it it's got up-down, up-down volume in it right, so it really on a short-term basis, it really shows what's going on in the market and uh... you know, I went back to two thousand six as far as you could take it back and it really, it doesn't spin year-round, both of them are above you know, minus ten right, it's going to keep going, how long, don't know, don't care I know, I do care but I'm with ya, when it turns down then you know, you take your profit and there you go, sure, you don't, you know, you know but even that last high we had back in April you know, it got pretty close to the highs there right, you know, even though the market went back up and tested that high in in May both of those indicators remain weak right, so I thought that was pretty cool yeah, thanks John so it catches the trend so it doesn't really worry about the wiggles you know, and uh... you know, to me, I think this thing's going to remain blue in my opinion, all the way in October, you know, right don't know if that really happened or not, but uh... I'm thinking that's probably a good chance, but this is a good indicator for you know, playing options too right, right, you know, because the windows are anywhere from the month to I think I've seen one last year about six months on this, but most of them for a month, it's three month type of time frames which is perfect for option trading no, big time, big time, there's no doubt about that pretty wild man, telling him yeah, so but yeah, I just want to present that to you, it's kind of like you don't have to do a lot of thinking, you know right, no, no, I'm with you and we know you know, particularly, well, the market's trend period, but in the gold market, man gold trend's like a monster, I mean, if it's going up, it likes to go up a long way, if it's going down, it likes to go down a long way, so this is always a cool little tool to have in your toolbox, no doubt about that yeah, yeah, so anyhow, I wanted to just point that out, I didn't want to spend a lot of time on it, but uh, right now we're in a bullish trend and and how long, don't know, and um, but you know, it's could be months, I think it's gonna go on through October, so yeah, so it'd be really interesting, you know, we tomorrow at two, I mean, you're almost, well, you're at highs, tomorrow at two we get the Fed announcement, so it's gonna be really intriguing, because you know, the market expectation is like, okay, you're gonna come up with a quarter point, and of course, the whole key is, is that okay, what is, what is the statement going to be like, okay, we're gonna, you know, continue to go up, or is there gonna be another pause, uh, you know, what, where, where are they gonna go with the the structure, the interest rate structure here, which, you know, no doubt is going to affect everything, so this is going to be intriguing. I, I think yeah, I think the market kind of, at least how I'm reading it anyhow, that the mage is kind of flipped sideways, I think the core points are obviously already built in, because the market's rallying into that, and there's a 90 percent kind of point of consensus that is going to be our core point read, so it's already, you know, k baked into the market, right, what the market does after that, I don't know, um, but, right, that's, that's a problem, I don't see anything real bearish here, I just see some minor diverges, and, and uh, but we'll, we'll see, but you know, we'll get some panic again, because we need some panic in the market to build energy here, to get going to the upside again, is that one chart I showed you in that 10 day, you know, the 21 day and the 63 day average, oh yeah, got, got pretty low, it's running out of kind of energy to, you know, running out of panic to keep this driving market going higher, right, so I think we need some back and forth here to build some energy, and uh, and I think year in we're going to be higher than what we are right now, no, I know, I remember the first time you said that, and you know, I can picture, I, you know, well, it's going to be intriguing here folks, is that I can picture, you know, because of the last downtrend, you know, the panic came in really quick, I can picture the same thing happening, and if that's what happens, well, you know, we'll be ready for it, I mean, that's what's really pretty cool, yeah, because, you know, if they, is up that quick, yeah, you're right, you know, we know the signs to look for when, when we start seeing panic, and you don't get scared with the crowd, you know, yeah, right, yeah, it was, it was separated, so we're not the crowd anymore, we're part of that, I don't know, call it smart money, I guess, I don't know, yeah, well, the thing that's so intriguing about this, meaning that if you just get a shallow retracement and you have such a panic, and I can picture why there would be such a panic, you know, because we've gone up so far, that's on one side, but on the other side, you know, because we've been in inflation for so long, you know, the bottom line is that when you look at higher numbers, that doesn't mean that we can buy more with that higher number, do you know what I mean? It's like, okay, a dollar's not worth what a dollar was five years ago, man, not even close, you know what I'm saying? So it's like, okay, you got a higher number, okay, well, you got a higher number, okay, but now if you cash that in and want to go buy something with it, well, you're not going to be able to buy as much as you bought, you know, five years ago, if we were talking about the same number that would be, you know what I mean? So I think, you know, after watching Zambabwe, remember, I mean, you were on the air with me, we watched Zambabwe go to the moon. Yeah, in the stock market, it was like, okay, yeah, that was all about inflation, you know what I mean? I think it was going up thousands of points every day, folks, it was insane. Yeah, amazing. Yeah. Well, listen, man, you have a great night, a safe night, and we'll look forward to talking to you Thursday, Tim. All right. Thank you. Okay.