 So Penny you we discussed about the US. I think the US has been one of the key drivers and shapers of global trades in 1945 has been at the beginning of 44 beginning of the Bretton Woods Conference and bringing the world together trying to Define some rules of the game now lately. We have seen that these rules of the game have changed or are changing You have been looking at that for many years from different vantage points from corporate from government So what's your view on geopolitics and trade and what can be done today also in the light of what will happen next year? Great. Well, thank you. So I believe trade is a force for good And I'm so pleased to be here today because I can actually say the word trade Which you can't really say in Washington DC at the moment everything's supply chains Economic security other issues, but we don't really talk about trade Earlier today. We saw some fantastic slides and some presentations about how trade has contributed to global wealth creation and we've also seen how trade has been impactful at helping poverty decline Globally because the lowest 25% of our populations are the ones that are most impacted by the regressive trade policies Like tariffs and non-tariff barriers that go into effect when COVID-19 hit People suddenly had to grapple with the fact that everything wasn't available Instantaneously, I know I had to deal with my kids who didn't understand why they couldn't get exactly what they wanted Exactly at that moment because of the overwhelming but slightly odd demands. We all had during that period trade and supply chains were actually quite resilient during COVID-19 and while we may not have been able to get the hair Clippers we needed or the peloton machines or some of the other things that all of us wanted when we were at home Making bread and trying to do jobs and educate children at the same time Supply chains generally Adjusted because international trade and the rules generally worked and I think that that is not understood or appreciated enough by folks What people have focused on are some of the export controls and export restrictions that went into place Some of the port issues that arose the hard Infrastructure issues that arose because it is people that are behind the movement of goods And when people can't get to their jobs because of COVID it does bollocks up things a little bit And then there was also in some cases really extreme demand for things that we had to retool Factories and other things to do So when I think about the geopolitics and when I look forward, I think what impacts Is really coming into the fore is the lack of trust that developed coming out of this So while trade moved relatively well There was some distrust that came up building on what had been developing over time already But it really I think came to the fore coming out of COVID-19 and you can particularly see that around the vaccine issue particularly in the global south so That's resulted in a whole lot of supply chain resilience groups being developed and a whole lot of other things that are going on But that current geopolitical situation and the tensions that are there between some of the big countries is Really leading to these debates as you've pointed out about de-globalization Reglobalization or or maybe everything is just a lot of Hot air that we're there we're talking about and nothing's really changing I Think trade is like water it finds its way around the rocks and the river But there are ways to control Guide Sometimes damn water, but as long as there is demand or gravity The water will continue to flow and what we're seeing now is governments trying to control the flows of trade in ways that I think Were pointed out earlier using export controls using sanctions using indirect means using investments Outbound investment regimes and other regimes all of that is coming to the fore to try to control where we are today so as a result I think trade is becoming more regional both physically and cultural and so Let me turn now a bit to where we are in the US. So There was a great piece last week. It was a comedy skit On a show in the United States called Saturday Night Live And it was a skit about George Washington trying to rally the troops to fight for life Liberty and the pursuit of the Americans ability to use their own series of weights and measures and it went through a whole discussion about how the Americans wanted to use kind of irrational Slightly random weights and measures whether it be Fahrenheit whether it be pounds whether it be tons whether it be any of the measures we use in the United States and it pointed out how We wanted to be able to do Exactly what we wanted to do and even though it wasn't a hundred percent rational That was what our goal was and I think sometimes when I look at our trade policy It reminds me of how Americans have adopted our series of weights and measures in the United States It's not always in our best interest, but by gosh, we're gonna do it so Jake Sullivan recently published a piece in foreign affairs talking about our current US foreign policy And where we're going to reestablish us leadership, but he didn't mention trade once in the piece If you look at other US government publications, they've pretty much stopped mentioning exports as well So for the Biden administration Global leadership is back and there really are trying to rebuild friendships with people around the world but They're also trying to grow the US economy as they say from the middle out the bottom up and That seems to be taking precedence in terms of how they're approaching our international economic relations So they're trying to develop a whole series of new economic tools that will help them to deepen these Relationships with countries, but not sacrifice the middle class. So we see things like I path This week. They're doing the America's leaders summit All of which are tools that are generally not binding Do not fall under any kind of enforcement mechanism and Frankly, it may not be durable if the administration changes in a year's time so Very innovative trying to be very creative, but at the end of the day Unclear how durable these new things they're developing are gonna be The WTO has been largely ignored and neglected by the administration and we can see that where it is That may be the best-case scenario for the WTO at the moment is that as we we look forward And as we also look forward, there's a heavy focus on manufacturing and you had the chart on good on goods but Services is a huge part of the US economy and services does continue to grow But the administration made some kind of surprising announcements last week about digital trade that I think were quite confusing given I think Where the US is on digital trade? So people are asking will a Biden 2.0 be more open to trade I'm I'm not convinced if you look at Biden's record as a senator and his voting record You will see that he's got a very mixed record with regards to trade And I know a lot of people are pinning hopes that maybe Biden if he stays on or wins reelection Will do something ambitious. I just don't I'm not convinced that that's where we're going And I think that where we are today is probably the best-case scenario for the US with regards to trade Let me conclude with companies So I think what became also really clear out of this is that companies didn't know where all their risk were and risk Generally companies you can scenario plan risk or generally not what the last crisis was It's something new usually something that surprises you and while it might occasionally be a black swan What hits you is usually something that's within your control so supply chains were an issue not necessarily because of other things but because Didn't really rise to the C-suite in the past So so being able and sitting down and doing creative scenario planning Looking at some of the issues in a much more thoughtful way I think are really important for companies and I know others on this panel will be discussing some of the specifics around how to do that Moving forward so with that I could like to conclude. Thank you Nicholas for the time and thank you all in the audience I know we're post lunch. It's always the hardest lot to have at a conference. So thank you for your attention Thank you very much Penny and we'll try to be as into interesting and entertaining as possible to overcome post lunch inertia I think just on this last point which you mentioned it's interesting I met one with the CEO and maybe he has a very focused view of the world But he said to me, you know, it's interesting because I have three new topics on my agenda the last ten years So ten years ago digital appeared on my agenda five years ago Sustainability appeared on my agenda and geopolitics appeared on my agenda on February 24th laugh of last year Which I found interesting that this is kind of a five-year increment and he and And that's also something which we see that this kind of geopolitical muscle needs to be developed