 Okay, very good morning to you. It's coming up to 7 a.m. on Tuesday the 9th of February Just going to give you a quick rundown of the major fundamental news and the view for the day ahead What to look out for also going to incorporate quite a few charts into the briefing this morning Given the fact that it's actually pretty quiet on the news front But first things first. I just wanted to mention this. This is the amplifier live new Twitter handle so just to keep you informed and I will convey this on Twitter later But given the growth of amplify we've now split into three distinct different brands given our business Areas so for the trading division. We are now officially called amplify live So this is our new handle You can just search for amplify live or it's at 80 underscore amplify live So if you do follow the Amphi training official Twitter handle I now strongly encourage you to follow this one if you want to stay on top of anything market or trading related Everything that's going to go down this hand or going forward the amplify training official one will be kept completely corporate news going forward, so Do check that out otherwise, let's go straight into the briefing talk about this morning and What we had yesterday was a higher close on Wall Street for the sixth consecutive session The S&P Dow Nasdaq 100 all finishing up in a relative uniform fashion between 0.6 to 0.7% higher We've generally maintained that in the overnight session crude oil is trading thermally through 58 bucks Precious metal sort of at a rebound. We've had a key Breakthrough a long-term trend line in a Dixie, which is pressuring prices overnight in the Asia Pact session For the dollar, which is in turn supporting both major currency pairs here with euro dollar up 21 top left and cable up 31 at the moment, so Yeah, let's let's talk about why is this happening? Well, it's a fairly clear and positive picture really that's been driving markets for the last couple of sessions and really this can be summarized by fiscal further fiscal stimulus is coming in the US Whether or not it's going to be quite the lofty heights of the 1.9 trillion dollars that Biden Originally proposed isn't really the point the idea is that even if that's watered down There's been a range of what all-street banks are expecting But it's still one in excess of a trillion dollars that will be coming at some point in the near future That in itself has led to a bit of an ongoing Kind of reflation trade. We've seen break-even suggest then that that is being priced in and that is helping underpin some of the resurgence in the likes of Gold prices. You've then got declining rate in Cases of COVID-19 now in terms of the latest statistic the US reported a 25% drop in new cases of COVID-19 to around 825,000 last week. That's the biggest fall in in America since the start of the pandemic in one single week Health officials did say That they are still worried about new variants of the virus that could slow progress But nonetheless that number definitely is a positive catalyst as well You've then had the earning season, which I think generally has gone a little bit To the wayside, but otherwise has been particularly strong Particularly if you're looking at the likes of the mega cap tech names Which of course there's such large components that underpin the composition and a lot of these stock indices And then you've got an accelerated vaccination program remember when Joe Biden came in he's definitely ramped that up. It's already well underway in the UK Europe has been a bit of a laggard, but obviously vaccination Programs are ongoing and so all of these things have been definite clear positive catalysts Definitely reading couple articles this morning There's one in the FT which I shared on the Amphi live Twitter account talking about the potential for commodity supercycle The idea then the early phase of this is somewhat of restocking and a lot of the developed markets But then the demand underpinned for commodity prices given the period ahead of renewed economic growth that we could be in store for probably a little bit early to be talking about super cycles in the commodity space, but Definitely that is a factor that's helped lift some of these metals across the spectrum from precious to base at the moment so look let's look at a few of the charts to encapsulate some of these ideas and Let's start with equities So have a look at the S&P 500 and from a price Performance points of view we have had six consecutive days of gains and we'll look at the calendar in a moment the calendar From an economic point of view is very quiet And that always makes me think well, perhaps we've got a bit of a period here of consolidation If anything just a bit of a soft pullback from the highs then given the fact that marketers, you know moved higher so consistently for a fairly long period of time so here Sticking in the overnight Asia Pacific session actually petered out at all-time highs at 39 13 the quarter in the S&P future But wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see us just drift back down until we get into the North American trading hours And kind of consolidate around these areas thirty nine hundred a pretty nice area downside support You've got the pivot level. You've got the previous yesterday afternoon high with the prior Overnight Asia pack session high and coming in so all around this kind of thirty nine hundred to thirty nine oh two area And then given the way that this market tends to technically in price pattern form you kind of have like these areas of I guess Consolidation of range which can then define areas of potential key interests So here as just mentioned if we go further down then 38 86 50 and you can see price responding quite a lot around these areas it's 75 and 25 and then again down here at 38 68 now in terms of today's session. I definitely don't see us getting down here But could we come back down to these types of levels? These are solid areas of support particularly down here 86 50 where if we got down there, I think just All the more reason then for people to just pick up the pullback for the eventual push back up to all-time highs So still remaining fairly bullish of mindset inequities for all the aforementioned reason Now that doesn't mean just blindly jumping in at the top of these levels But just looking for the pullbacks then if you were looking at any type of long strategy the bias still to the upside Otherwise else where you know following on we are gold excuse me oil and Equities have pretty much been moving in a uniform way because they're both moving off the same narrative at the moment And here's a look at WCI crude. I mean it's just had such a great moves Initiate since the beginning of the month. So at the last Several trading sessions. We've just gone from around a 52 handle all the way up and we're trading at 58 54 the front-run futures at the moment now We've gone through the next kind of near area of technical relevance Which would have been that high back here, which was a 20-second a jam and we're above that this morning Which means then that technically not a great feel until we get further up to that 21st a jam 2020 high which was also that high print that we had back on the 6th of December 2019 And that pretty much is the $60 handle. I mean that level would be actually 59 73 So upside now we're up here and given the fact that we've gone through a couple of these previous areas of resistance Then perhaps we can just continue moving up until 60 as well psychologically Perhaps the market has that as a target in mind For this this run up that we've had in oil prices. So I'll be keeping an eye on that as well today Otherwise I did mention the Dixie and really the Dixie is an important catalyst for Oil and metals as well as the direct dollar-based currency pairs And this was that long term Descending kind of trend line from May November test that when we broke last week above it was quite a key catalyst for Subsequent price movement in those assets What we've had in the overnight session is we basically last night very late closed below it And then we push back down beneath it And I think that is important. So the Dixie in the overnight session did trade Quite heavy at around 2 a.m. London time I think that was more just confirmation of the move back below this area So the Dixie is down about a quarter percent on the session today But I do think that this means then this markets now a little bit more susceptible for that prevailing Dollar weakness trend to materialize Irrespective of the facts of this ongoing kind of reflation trade happening in the fixed income space that has Being a bit of a breakdown in the correlation of what you would normally perceive to be then firm a dollar with higher moving yields That isn't particularly holding true right now So I don't think there's much in a way to stop now this dollar trading a little heavy The Fed remembers the final catalyst of the key component that's helped elevate these markets, which is there in a Commodative mode for the foreseeable future and that dumbishness lends its hand Then irrespective of these positive elements happening economically for this dollar to continue to remain on the back foot So with that being said quite key to watch then the major currency pairs So if we're looking at euro dollar here We're in a very tight range here in the overnight Asia pack sessions So really just keeping an eye on this as European markets get fully up and running in a short while We've just had out now as I speak just gone 7 a.m. The German trade balance the export number plus 0.1 Expectations were for minus 1% so I'm quite keen to look at the upside here because if we do get that Consistent dollar weakness come through Then we'll be looking out for a breakout of this tight range Perhaps then a push up in the euro takes us back up to the 121 hand or which on the daily pivots looks like that's the R2 But was also Combined and those that double top that we had a price action going back to the beginning of the month on the overnight session of the second So consequently, it's a dollar day. It's not really so euro based and that meaning then that cable is also making some gains on the upside You can see here. This was some of the price pattern I know the charts a little bit messy here, but this is something we were looking at last week I look at that perfect test on that trend line something that Sam will be proud of To the tick actually so let me just remove some of these just to really make it crystal About that cable trend line So here going back to this is a year-to-date trend line from the beginning of the year on the fourth You've had the retest on the 21st of Jan 27th and then absolutely to the tick overnight We've had that in a late Asia pack session here on cable So that's going to be a key area to watch I'd have that trend line on for any further push up Should we then start to see that dollar weakness come through just above around this trend line You've obviously got the one 38 handle in the futures. I start looking on a daily chart here and cable obviously the upside Looks a little bit blue skies now There's not nothing too much here technically in the way So looking more psychologically on these handles if we start reverting back to type Which is just generally the pound cushioned by the very successful and speedy roll out of the vaccination program Irrespective of some minor secondary data on the retail sales front talking about How bad that's been? I don't think that's necessarily new information And I think markets are willing to look beyond the current state of high-street sales In the UK on the back of the vaccination program being successfully adopted and that bringing further forward sooner Irrespective of the fact that yes, we are aware of variant risk in the virus, but the economic recovery ensuing in the UK And then quit looking the the metal space just just really gold I wanted to have a quick look at and I was just looking here at gold on a 30 minute chart and Looking at the high that we had so let me just give you tighten this a little bit This is that range that we were trading And that was a clear double top from the 21st of Jan and the 29th of Feb And that was the the range high at the time that we were trading before the breakdown in price that we saw on the falls of this month But I'm using that high from the 29th. So firstly just drawing a fib retracement to the low that we printed Last week on the fourth and that's 618 fib retracement does come in at around the exact same levels as this support area in the 29th resistance here on the third On a on two occasions and in the overnight Asia-Pacific session It's a quite key area here of resistance With this recovery that we have seen in the yellow metal that I'll be watching today any breakout above here then prices could Pop higher quite quickly. I'd be looking at 47 spot 7 Which is the previous highs and lows in this period here back on the 2nd of February and then just looking at these previous price Points probably up then to 55 Dollars would be the next target and then 18 kind of 60 above there So using these previous prices that we were seeing back at the beginning of the month as potential upside targets under those Scenarios again dollar weakness kind of generally helps that as does the whole Idea of the reflation trade and therefore an inflation hedge And bringing back the shine if you like to to go prices for the moment So, yeah, technically some quite interesting charts You know European XC indices I'd be looking at kind of the same Setup to a certain degree so the DAX futures trading a little heavier this morning But again, just having a look here Well quite an interesting level the DAX is just flirting with actually we still got an hour or so till the cash opened But the futures market And the DAX is a very volatile character So I definitely keep an eye on that there at the 14,000 and 33 level the break down there if it does trade heavy Kind of got an area that's quite nice just around the s1 a support as a target on any quick move down to 14,000 s1 and those previous highs and lows would be a good target on any Short or area of then potential support for eventually equities to just generally again the bias remained to the upside Irrespective of any short term what I would classify more profit-taking moves than anything really fundamentally driven Italian equities obviously have been the biggest beneficiary They're still performing very well at the moment They did yesterday at least on the back of Mario Draghi looking more positive Given some of the weekend narratives that he's going to be out of form. It's looking like a Technocratic government in Italy so BTP futures still remaining fairly elevated around the top end of their recent range of last week And the Italian yields then consequently still trading lower at the moment Bitcoin will finish Got to mention it right Tesla and Elon Musk obviously investing one and a half billion dollars and generally You know a big corporate name legitimizing crypto currency in that way He's just gonna fuel probably further gains then into the crypto space overall in the short term We had a big Pop in price yesterday. We've basically Asia's taken that Batten and just followed it up to 48,000 seen the overnight session and Europe here has just Pressed it up to 49,000. We've come in early doors. Will we go to 50,000? Well, it's not a question of will yes, we will will it happen today? Possibly will it happen at some point in the future? Absolutely. So With this market tends to trade very much in a behavioral and technical way I think just looking at the price action from yesterday. You can see We after we popped higher through 40,000 fresh all-time highs. Where do we go? What's the instant target? Well, 45,000 round figures comes back down pulls back find support area. Where does it find it? 43,000 comes back up for a test a period of Hesitation on price 45,000 break up. Where does it go? 48,000 so it's all very round figure driven when we're trading a market that has never been this high so Whether we get to 50,000 or not. I just remember that generally speaking on these types of days I mean The initiation of this move to the high is around a 21% gain in the price of Bitcoin And that does mean that Bitcoin as we have seen in the past is susceptible to pretty Strong pullbacks of several percentage points Perhaps even as much as 10% on a day when it has gone up 20% before then the next kind of move higher than in two So yeah, just be careful of coming into this market at its relative high is trying to get long When actually you might have missed the boat here and actually then you've just got to wait for a strategic point of it Coming back down now whether that's 48,000 whether that's 46,000 here from that overnight Asia Paclow Or whether that's 45,000 which obviously is a very probably the most Appetizing key technical level here is 45 and 43 in the short term and he pulled back to there I'd probably anticipate people to come back in start buying it up again So and pull back here to then move it back higher or we come back down to this area to move it back higher All right, quick look at the calendar and we'll wrap it up So what have we got today? And again, just to stress not much of me talking about news Of course because there really isn't any major headlines for me to speak of other than the general overall sentiment as we we've discussed But as far as the day is concerned one of the main things I'm looking out for but it is a quiet calendar They hence the reason why I really wanted to go through those charts in a bit more detail I think it's definitely going to be more responsive To general trends and technicals today given the lack of fundamental catalysts Because overall then all of those macro drivers still remain in place. Nothing's really changed there The only thing is markets have got a little bit more expensive if you like So there's a degree particularly inequities or whether or not you might have a bit of a pullback on this Push higher that we've had but again just to say that it doesn't deter from the fact that still remain relatively bullish in direction So this morning is pretty quiet now as German data is out the way this afternoon equally so nothing major coming out And then the oil infantry is not coming from the API to aftermarket, of course Speaker wise ECB is lame talking this afternoon at 3 p.m. London feds Bullard non-voter But is speaking on the economy and monetary policy and is a vocal chap who's speaking at 5 p.m. London time so perhaps worth keeping an arm as well and then for any fixed income traders You've got the 58 billion dollars in the three and no auction later on this evening at 6 p.m. London time All right, that is it. So have a good session ahead any questions at all Feel free to reach me on the discord room. If you're watching this on YouTube Don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel much more coming if you missed this the session the guys recorded yesterday about Tesla and Bitcoin check it out on the channel. I'm sure you'll enjoy it. Thanks very much guys. Have a good day