 अन्त्यागिलाई और या भिश्था। बस्था का ज़ी अब यहां देखारखेगया। आप आप यहां ईधला की लिए रद श्लाँग, जूद वो आप देखाग्या थानागा। अप ध़ती होगा जो बआप लिए बियान ती के विन्चान, उगनामीग गरोठ होँ रहा है, लोगने के लिवेंग स्वल्च्तन्ट मेरदा होँ रहा हैं के यसके दिटैमःन्थ कै आंजयां? अवर दाईंै एईज्ँ एकऊनमीच्त कब रहा होनके ठाई था और उसंगे थेटिटैम्नेच्त के आँ अई अख्चीं ठीहां ?? तर्डिन 來 अपने यव दिक सुआए नवात होगा 니, थो और सरःव, because in China there is large growth rate and there are little less growth rates. तो इसकी रीजन्स क्या है, ग़ोद खुरीज इसको कैसे इसको अनलाइज करते हैं, और क्या इसका जबाब देते हैं। तो आज हम सेकंट कुश्टन पर बात करेंगे, कि इंकम कुन्ट्रीज जो दिफ्रन्सेज हैं, अंके बारी में गरुच छिए हमें क्या इनस्चाएट देते। पहला कुस्टन तो आज है क्या गूड़ ग्रुच छिएं क्सक्ट्रीज अद्बाब और सेक्टेझ? कि जो इस वक्ट अत अजँस्टन इंक्ट्ट्ट्रिज हैं, रीज आन पौर की दर्म्यां, उसके बारे में गोल सुरीस हमें क्या बताताती है? करन्ट अंट्रकन्ट्री दिफ्रेंसिद इन पर केपिटा इंखम अर दर सुल्ट अप नेगेटिप शोक्स इन दे पास्ट पर एक देहम्पल पास्ट वार सार कलूनिल प्रमिनेश्यन सोलोग रोत मोडल हम ने पडाओ उसके मताबक तो ये कि तमाम एकोन्ट्मीश कनवर्ष करेंगी अगर दे स्टेडी श्टेट लेवल लेकन नेगेटिप शोक्स की बजे से ज़से हम नहीं देखा कि हिस्टरूरी कली कुछ एकोन्टमीश में नेगेटिप शोक्स आए ञाऔट्स की वगजे से होगशे है चिसा, मेहानथा और लोगयाेटूकी आया आप आग unsett हर्दिख लेवल कोरीएगा च्ट़ी ठ steal आप लगषे ते ठलगी सत्पाब गोulsiveन्पष ग्वाटग से बन और आप कुछyor यонеiles यज़ेई क्हदशब बहुज़े हैं करीब हैं, तो उस भजैसे अनके गरोच लेगत रेज़ ठाहें. यज़ेई उस की रेजन प्रवाईट करतें, ग्रोट थ्योरीज चागदिस लिए आप प्रप्टिएश। अर फुँचर के बारे में के वर दू दीस, फुट्रीस प्रेदिक्त अब दा फुट्र दिस्टिबूशन अप दवेल्त अपनेशन, या आई तो दिफ्रन्स दिस हैं रिच्ट पूर में. इंबिरिकल के आवीटेंस या इस फावले से उसको स्टेटि करनें कि लिए बवसारी स्टेटिस हुएं, इक सिंपल सी इक रिग रेग़्ेशन इखुशवन यहम से हम उसको युज की आगे और हम असको समझ लेदें के वो किसरा से इस बाक को स्टब शटीख करतें. आप याद़ा को यह सब रब लाग आप वाए याद़ा कि आप ती ती बआप थी आप अप ख़ DANIEL, आप पेरी धािनग्ये लेए अब ती आप पषक रब एद़ा कि यह आप बदादादीट ड़ादा आप देटा आप. पर कपिता इंक्यम है. आई कुन्त्री को लिय क्या अगड्टने के हम ने... क्रोण्तेजेँका different कुन्त्रीस का ड़ेता है. और ती वन और सेखन में है ती वो थी सेग्गा थो ताए्म पीडित कि लेए बेएं. 0 तायं पीडितोर वान तायं पीडित. जीरो ताम पीरीडग रेद ने कि सेझा कोई लोग या सेझा ती भान की होंग. इस इं दोनों का सेजा थे आप को कंट्री आई का इस पीरीडग के रर्ञ में ग्रोत रेध वताएग. left hand side पर क्या, dependent variable क्या अपका, growth rate क्या, between कुन्से दो time periods आपका, T0 and T1. And on the right hand side पर इसको न किस को, इस ग़ोट रेट को किस पर regress कर रें, alpha, constant. And we regress यस को न पर regress कर रें, country, i का जो zero time period में income level आपका, on that, regress कर रें. Plus heirate. So this is a simple regression in the course of your econometrics. You study these things here. Now what does this mean? If the value of beta is important, we take it as, if beta is zero, we take it as a simple case. If beta is zero, what does it mean? On the left side क्या बता है, growth rate क्या? During that time period, we have taken two time periods, zero and one, there is growth rate between them. So if beta is zero, then whose growth rate will be equal to alpha? Alpha is the constant. So what does it mean? That any country has a lot of initial income levels. They are growing at a constant rate. That means poor countries are also growing at the rate at which rich countries are growing. So what is the implication of this? That the difference between rich and poor is constant. If beta is negative, what is the implication of this? Negative means that those countries whose initial income level was high, their growth rate is low, and vice versa. So what will be the implication of this? This will indicate the convergence. That the rich countries are growing at a relatively slow rate because beta is negative. By increasing the initial income, the growth rate will reduce due to the negative beta. And initially, in the initial period, if their income was low, then their growth rate will be high. So beta will support negative convergence. Similarly, if beta is positive, what will be the implication of this? That those countries whose income was high in the beginning are growing at a higher rate and their income was growing at a higher rate, then divergence will increase the differences between them. And in another case, if beta is negative, then it supports convergence. And if its value is minus 1, then this indicates perfect convergence. If this is minus 1, then this means that whatever is the initial level, finally what will happen to you is that ultimately all countries will reach the same point. So this was the discussion of beta's negative, positive and values. So what are the empirical results? In 1986, 16 industrialized countries used the available data. And what are the two time periods? The initial time period was 1870 and the second time period was 1979. So during this period, the growth rate came to the left-hand side. And these are the regression results. What is important in the results? The value of beta 1 is negative. Negative means that it is showing convergence. Number 2, it is almost 1 minus 1.995. So this is the perfect convergence. And if you recall the econometrics, then its standard error is 0.094. It is very small. This means that we measure the beta very precisely. And the value of R-Scare is also 0.87 indicating the health of our results. And how much percent is being explained. So with the help of this sample, these results are supporting this convergence. So this is what I have explained. Now let us look at the graph. In the graph, we took the growth rate of 16 countries on the vertical axis. Log per capita income growth. And on the horizontal axis, the initial income of 1870 is negative. Negatively sloped. The graph we have is that in 1870 per capita income, their growth rate is high. And as a result of this, their growth rate was more. But this sample was a bi-sample. 16 countries selected were industrialized countries. When this sample was increased to other countries, then this graph was made. Now the negative relationship in this was so strong that it was not strong. And the value of beta was almost minus 1. That was almost half. That means that our sample was a bi-sample. In this graph, we took a picture of the perfect convergence. And further, when many other countries participated in this sample, when the sample was increased, then the convergence was almost over. In this diagram, you can see that there is no negative relationship between the initial income and the growth rates. So, from this point onwards, the convergence that we talked about, was an absolute convergence. If without any condition, all countries will converge and the low income will grow at a high rate and the high income will grow at a low rate and they will converge. But from this point onwards, the convergence is not absolute. This is conditional convergence. Conditional convergence means that if some conditions of those countries will be the same, social infrastructure, human capital, rule of law, what is the condition of the institutions in that country, what is the condition of the rule of law, what is the condition of property rights, these are the things. Degree of openness to foreign trade and some macroeconomic variables. If these things are similar, then their steady-state level will be similar. If these things are different, then their steady-state level will be different. Every country will come at their steady-state level, but due to the different level of the steady-state level, they will not converge. So, what is the implication of this? If the government tries to improve its institutions, improve the rule of law, improve the saving rate and improve the human capital, which we have read, focus on research and development, then in the end, there is a chance that they can attain the higher income growth rate. Institutional changes are very important. The steady-state income level will be determined. Favorable social infrastructure, it can potentially lead to the higher steady-state income level. In institutional changes, economists talk about discouraging current-seeking activities and encouraging productive activities so that the country can grow in that way. Thank you very much.