 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now David white and welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour with me And it doesn't matter where me is as long as you are here at the appointed time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So what do we have going on today? Well, we've got a little bit of a bounce not nearly the kind of volume We've had in the past. We're only doing about 6.7 billion shares Pretty much what I said this morning is I if I'm looking for a fairly Decent top in the marketplace and I suspect We have to have the Nasdaq roll over. We've got a fairly nice bounce going today so far and as I talked about yesterday, I thought it was kind of I Kind of weird that we weren't getting much out of Nvidia. It's the big winner today in VDA and There's a few things we talked about yesterday like them actually being able to Deliver more cards and actually find one in stock somewhere Which is pretty much AMD's kind of well AMD kind of led that about a month ago But in video just this weekend you could walk in for a very short amount of time and buy one of the high-end Video cards at retail price No discounts, but pretty amazing that you could even find one after of almost two years of a massive shortage of any of the latest generation cards But you got a nice move out here, I would like to see a little bit more volume I'd also kind of dislike that this was known for a day or two and then they kind of pushed it with a bunch of Upgrades so I'm kind of worried about whether or not this sticks But I don't have to worry about the products the products they announced were pretty amazing And they continue to march on and move forward. So it's tough to be Incredibly bearish on these but I'm kind of interested in the way that these things are working We're right at the downtrend line on just a lot of these different things like AMD so Yeah, can we break through this downtrend line? Well, we're up, but it's not a blowout volume day Of course tomorrow is a Friday and the question is do we see a lot of people head for the hills? You certainly see that already in gold today What's the last tick on that up 28 bucks? I think we're finally out of the range of the consolidation For the move up and now That probably tells you that you should start worrying about the market itself i.e. The S&P and the NASDAQ We may be another day or two Before we hit the hay high in the NASDAQ and I really when I looked at The market around noon or one what impressed me was the S&P was up on light volume in that Those stocks of the New York Stock Exchange, but probably just up in the fact that the NASDAQ was up and not a Big rousing endorsement or a lot of volume in some of the stocks that were hit yesterday But as I said before I'm fairly bearish here I could be proven wrong and I would change my mind as fast as a New York second But I just think we're starting to warm up and in the next day or two I'll probably find myself a short either NASDAQ stocks or NASDAQ itself But probably fairly close as I say I think we saw the blow off top and I think we probably are gonna see um Two steps forward three steps back Probably into the first week of May now But we'll see we also have a tim ord on the line today And he'll be in the next segment if you have any questions you can email me at path tfnn.com and we'll look at it But uh, you know what they don't make it easy To be short And especially the ones that pay the big bucks But uh, I think we're kind of in that range here where it's very hard to get uh, too excited about paying up for any stocks um And uh, you know, we had a nice move lower. We've got uh What did have a lot of volume not blow out, but we did have a uh Even a lighter day so far up so You know, maybe the best uh, we get is a draw out here I don't think so options are still rather bearish Going in to options expiration, which is mid month next month Uh, but that's kind of it. What's uh, do a little history because I know we got Tim koana on so we won't get to that in the next segment Uh, but again eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight if you want to Talk to tim or i today And of course you uh, if you have any questions for tim, I'll email them to him During the breaks. Uh, and you can do that at uh path tfnn.com Uh, so what else do we have here? I think that's it Let's do a little history and we shall move onwards and upwards And it's all just a little bit of history repeating And on this day In 2001 the russian space station mirror burns up the earth's atmosphere after 15 years in orbit The debris that didn't burned up falls safely into the pacific ocean between chili new zealand, which is uh pretty much a dumping ground for satellites these days With a Agreement I think that happened in 2005 Um, everybody that's got a satellite has to agree to leave a charge in it, which is a small rocket motor Uh to deorbit them and deorbit them somewhere between as we said south america and uh africa or in the uh in the between africa and australia But they're probably Getting the close to 500 or so Objects that have re-entered earth's atmosphere most of them burn up totally in the atmosphere But uh, you never know of course. I remember the big uh party That I had had to be 1979 memory serves me correct where we had our uh, skylab Uh party everybody was sure they were going to get hit But it was more of a excuse to get drunk than anything else But that uh, and I think that was about right wasn't it 1979 maybe somebody in the dental tell me But uh, I do digress Let's uh, take a quick look before we go to the break and see if there's anything else going on in here um To up 43 on the s&p cash up 261 on the dow 166 higher on the naztec Russell's up 13 crude oils down almost two bucks gold's up Uh buck uh, well not a buck up 1.4 percent, but it looks like it's broken out of that Consolidation range and maybe that's telling us that maybe we're close to a high also in the equities We'll be back with uh, tim will The path of least resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win Visit tfnn.com today and subscribe to david white's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk free With our 30 day money back guarantee take the path of least resistance at tfnn educating investors What's separating you from the most successful men and women on wall street? 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We like to check in with our guy Tim or Tim or has been writing a newsletter for over 30 years One mini awards for time or the year in different sectors S&P gold all that kind of different stuff Uh, but uh, I'll ask those guys aren't around anymore but uh Yeah, we've got tim Which is better than than an award award show like the Oscars for stock traders But uh, I do digress. Hey tim, how you doing? Hi Good good. Thanks for having me on again. So, uh What happened the last couple of weeks or even the last week? Um, we got some uh, actually we could actually uh Take a look I mean in terms of the market. What is actually doing? Well, we got chart one, which is on the gold market That flipped the chart two. I thought that was real interesting if you don't mind So you want to go to two? Yeah, if you if you can we can't well We can do one first if you want, but two is I've got two All right Well, yeah, this is uh This chart goes back to about 2000 uh 2016 And the bottom window is a mcconnell osquare for the nasdaq composite And uh, and I grew our red lines there to show the times When the mcconnell oscar gets way below minus 300 is really oversold And uh, it's easy to do for a balance And on that balance is really key how What kind of strength the mark will have going forward? So won't just have a kind of selling climax and that happens when the mcconnell the nasdaq that then the nasdaq mcconnell osquare falls below minus 300. So it's kind of selling climax So the markets kind of just have exhaustion moves to the downside Then right after that within a few days or maybe a week or most You should see Uh a sign of strength right out of that bottom and that sign of strength is up to plus 300 as usually in the case of A bottom and usually you won't go back down and retest that low and when that happened at the 2018 low um Looks like about january or maybe january 2019 low that happened went below a minus 300 two plus 300 Probably a couple of weeks or whatever and again, it happened in march of 2020 on the Uh, what pernola not pernola, but uh the virus attack, you know, that was in march The market blew down and right after that low had jumped up to plus 300 Not once but a couple different times showing quite a bit of strength going forward And this happened this has to happen right at the bottoms and uh Recently we had a kind of selling climax looks like about january or so Uh, I don't have the date on that but last week rally produced Uh a plus 300 on the mcown possibly or for the naztec So we actually have a selling climax. We actually have two of them down there one and Looks like about december or so Then another one i think it's probably january 24th because that's when the low happened at least one of the lows Then the mark kind of staggered a little bit and they really shot up last week So I think the bottom's in according to this indicator And uh, you can see some consolations along the way But the problem probably near midterm low just happened here Um at that would be the february 24th low And um, I've got a question on that and that is we made a high volume low at 41 14 on the s and p cash That hadn't been tested yet um The s and p cash Well, you had a selling climax on january 24th right Right, but my question is it was high volume. It wasn't low volume. It hadn't been retested We got down to the into the 4200s But that hadn't that low with all that volume hadn't been retested. What's your thoughts on that? Well, I actually the best volume to use is on the qqqs and also on the spy is spx For some reason works pretty well, but that High spy works better for his volume. Is this you're concerned if you look at the january 24th low We had a kind of selling climax and we went down and tested that low On february 24th exactly one month later and the volume was wider than were closed above it Then we tried to test the february 24th low Right after that and we couldn't get down to that low then Then you know in early march uh mid march we kind of blew out of that low But the sign of strength so my opinion we did have a retest of the january 24th low On lighter volume and we almost tried to test the february 20th 24th low, but couldn't get down Had to get down to it. So in my opinion Uh with if you looking at the spy volume, we did have a successful retest of the january 24th low That's how i'm interpreting it Okay We can go on further if you have another question No, that was it. Uh, we've got uh on this chart the uh nasdaq composite the top The nazi. What's that? I don't have that symbol Oh in as i that's a nazi summation index. Oh, okay So that then below that i'm down at the bottom, which we've already described. So I just wanted to make sure right So yeah, we use I didn't put anything a whole lot on the nazi summation index But when it breaks zero is usually a significant vent to the downside or where it can be You know, we you know, we did break below zero on the summation index and at the moment we're still below zero But with the mccall and osprey are going from minus 300 to plus 300 Um We're probably done basing. I guess you might say it and more or less. I think we're starting to uh an uptrend so Um, we can actually take a look at the s and p's. We set next chart There's just a chart number Number two. Oh, I would be here. Let's be chart number three Yeah, okay. Well the same thing Well the kind of same thing happened this chart goes back to it looks like 2015 And I this is a bottom window now. That's nyse mccall and osprey And it's kind of the same scenario but uh I use the nyse, but anyhow, uh, when you go below minus 200 Then you flip and go above Plus 200 it also represents a you mean a term low and I point that out my market letter I pointed out then I think it was a january 24th low. It fell below way below 200 and As I said to really get an uptrend going To confirm an uptrend has started we need that the mccall and osprey hit above plus 200 And I don't have the date there, but a few days ago. We get we did get above plus 200 So the nasdaq mccall and osprey and the nyse mccall and osprey both gave bullish signals Now let the bullish signals going back On this chart 2015 So you got to have a minus 200 and then you got last up to plus 200 If you look at that blow down in march of of 2020 I'm going to interrupt you. I'm going to interrupt you just a minute. We're going to Are there a break? I emailed you some more stocks that Some of the listeners wanted you to take a look at so you'll have an opportunity to Pick those up and then we'll get back to this chart when we come back We've got tim ward on the line of the or dash oracle. 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So in downtrends It's very seldom you get a selling climax And uh and that for that and when the market does rally I'm calling off or does not get above Um, at least on the nyc does not get above plus 200 does give maybe plus 100 But does not really show a science drink. So you need That's finance drink to operate off of a selling climax. So that's the point But yeah, it does look like minus 300. So Okay Um, I sent you some I've got some kind of feedback here, right I I sent you some charts So did you look at any of those or find anything you'd like to talk about? Yeah, well, then we can uh Actually, I'm I actually am looking at the the gold or not the gold but the uh oil stocks He had slumber jay in there And um, um, I got I got rigged and I got I forgot the other one I just only got a couple of uh of oil stocks But I'm thinking those oils a lot of those oil stocks. I think are bottoming out So I don't know what biden's ministration is is going to do but The oil stocks a lot of them are showing promise here that your leaf in a basing period and um And a lot of them have drawn drawn cups and handles Or you know, they're on they already drawn the cup and a lot of them are on the handles now and so um Anyhow, I don't think it's the oil companies even though uh Uh, the democrats are really negative on anything Fossil fuels, whatever With gas prices, you know four and five dollars a pop Uh, I think biden's going to be forced to open up some of these Oil companies, you know, let them produce. That's what the charts are saying So I think uh, they're worth the speculative shot. I'll put it that way. I got a couple you know, I I think uh They may perform here going forward over the next, you know, six months or so even though Um, democrats are not in that corner Um, they may be forced to To do something with the fossil fuels. So anyhow, so you were looking at rig rig and slumber j And slumber j did you have another one you were looking at? um Oh, it's I don't have it in front of me right now, but I can't remember a while and but um, but slumber j looks okay Let me pull that chart up again um Let's see s or uh slb here. Yeah Here it is Yeah, it's you know, it's been an uptrend since april But you know, you really got to look at uh, the big Charts and let me do a volume study here real quick Yeah, we had a selling climax back in april 2020 Uh, even though biden did get you know, obviously the president of the market actually actually has been moving up And over the last couple of weeks here, you kind of have shown us on a strength that you're running into a consolidation pattern all basically the whole 2019 So, um the bigger charts I think are are turned in the corner or actually have turned the corner so, um You know what can slumber j get back to 75? I think 10 so um You know the trend's up Uh, so when this is making higher highs higher lows that's the definition of a enough trend. So You know, it's a little bit speckly. Obviously, it's not ideal But might if you do if you do a monthly bow and your band on slumber j As long as it stays above the mid bow and your band Uh, as usually a good sign going forward and if you look on the monthly charts um, he had a selling climax and he had a Looks like about probably march in april. He had a retest that's on climax didn't quite touch it But since then it's been moving up when we closed above the mid bow and your band back in Looks like about february march of uh 2021 And we're still making higher highs in this last monthly high which this month has made it on higher volume So there's nothing really bearish about that the only You know, we do have a trading range of from in 2019 to 2020 by around that 40 to I'm sorry about 30 30 to 40 range And we're kind of eight right through it. So To me this thing's an uptrend. So You should keep moving higher in my opinion Um, how high, you know, I think we could get back to 75. So As long as stays above the mid bow and your band Um stocks in an uptrend So and making higher highs higher lows. So You had the vicks on there too What was the question on the vicks just an opinion or what or yeah, what's what's going off and doing here? Well, it did you know you get above Uh, I do a lot with the vicks. I actually do several different ratios with them. I use a bbix Which is a vicks of the vicks and I compare that to the vicks And a lot of times the vvix leads the vicks And when that happens you're usually close to reversal, but I think you know, the vicks really Got, you know, very high at that march low And so I'm thinking that pretty much finished off the bottom anytime it gets above 30 Uh, as usually the market's kind of looking for a low and that's pretty much what happened here So on a short term basis here kind of flipped sideways We're down around the 22 20 and 22 and a quarter range And we're kind of just touching a new low here, but I'm thinking yesterday's low could be touched again But um vicks, um, you know, it's basically in a downtrend, you know, touching the low today So, uh, I think the bottom's in on the sb's and nasa and along with the gold market I mean, it's kind of, you know, we got a war going on and all sorts of stuff, you know, you got to follow Uh, you got to follow the charts not your opinions so um You know, I'm gays in general I'm bearish on the vicks and bullish on the Uh, the markets, you know, includes, uh The invicks, you know the nasa vicks So, uh, we're gonna go to the break here when we come back We've got one last that uh, they sent to us, which is the smh is the semiconductors So we'll ask you about those when we return and uh, I think we've got one more chart left to go Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? 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If you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look trade chau or chad Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etfs china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services llc Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv We return we've got tim ward on the line to the or dash oracle dot com They're writing newsletter for over 30 years Is that more like 35 or 40? Yeah, it's been 89 so Um long time that's before that's before the the internet. You know i was doing it by fax but anyhow Um slumber or not slumber j but uh semi conductor here You know you kind of had a buying climax in november december they ran up and it went Way above is mid bowling your band And that's kind of climatic to the upside and then obviously then you get a correction down And we did have a i'm looking at the weekly chart here And if you did you did have a selling climax on a january 24th little that week Volume really stood out there Then went down for a retest and and actually had a couple of retest And now you kind of breaking back up again You know normally you get these buying climaxes and turns around gets the selling climaxes Kind of flips the market a lot of times sideways So I think you may go back up to the previous highs up around 320 on um The s the etf for semi conductor was smh But I bet that Previous highs going to be resistance. I think this market kind of just flips sideways But that's a long ways up from where we are. We're at you know 274 Uh, but I bet that 320 area is going to be resistant. So I'm thinking this really had a great run over the last several years And so I'm thinking we're going to hit the previous highs and Be resistance. So so but right now I think it's an uptrend. So along with almost everything else just because of the uh uh NASDAQ doing the You know the selling climax in a buying frenzy off the lows and along with the smp is doing the same thing or the nyc doing the same thing I think most stocks will move up here You know, will it be like You know 21 we're up over 20 percent Uh, I don't you know, we'll get back to the previous highs Or it could be a decent percent, but not probably like last year so Okay, I'm think I'm thinking just back to the highs and from there. I don't know Let's go to your gold chart Which is number one Go ahead number one. Yeah anyhow, this if you look, um, this is The second window down from the top is inflation deflation ratio and I kind of watch this thing real pretty close And the inflation deflation ratio from about 2016 to current time pretty much just Based it it wasn't going down wasn't going up. It just formed a few our huge base Well, that base is six years old And that's a huge base to come off of and I draw on a trend line there And we did break above that trend line And if you look in the top window Uh, the top one is the rsi for this inflation deflation ratio so when this Inflation deflation ratio is trending higher that means inflation south basin deflation and it's a bullish sign for gold So if you notice it kind of mirrors what the gold Chart does which is right below that inflation deflation ratio is the xAU And it shows what happens over the years When this ratio is rising and falling so, um I think we'll build a huge base in this inflation deflation ratio is it's going to rise and possibly I guess mirror in the opposite direction of what happened from 2012 down to 2016 So I'm thinking this ratio is going to continue to rise and it's going to rise for a number of years Just reason why because that base was so long Uh, normally the longer the base the longer the rise afterwards So I think we're in the early stages of the gold market right rising here. So Well, I had a lot of people that They had a lot of people that were what I thought were Incredibly bullish on gold and just thought it should go straight up Of course, we went to a high and then pulled back and then of course they were sure it was a v bottom And it's taken a week or 10 days or so to uh To consolidate out Any ideas on that or do you think that my my call my at least characterization of that is a little different But I kind of think that the more we uh bore people out of the market in gold the better office work we are generally Yeah, yeah, you don't want to Really anybody in the market tell the last you know the last couple of years or last few months of the you know That's when the buying buying frenzy happens But uh, yeah, I think we're in the early stages. We're not seeing you know, um I traded the gold market back in the 80s back in uh I wouldn't have had that first blow off and it was a frenzy back then and everybody and their mother was in I mean grandmas and everybody We're not even we're near that stage everybody's kind of really had a sour taste in their mouth From the 2011 highs. I mean gold stocks in general got destroyed From the 2011 high Let's say in like the xcu Uh, two current prices and they're still uh, a lot of these gold stocks are still hanging after lows They're not breaking new lows now like the world over the last several years But a lot of them are big huge base patterns so I think probably it looks like now since they they're starting just to come up, but I think the smart money is just getting in now if you even look at the Gdx gold ratio I got that chart going back to I think 2018 And only one time in the last couple hundred year or a hundred years or so has ever been that ratio has ever been this low So, you know, a lot of people say well, you got to buy when the market's cheap Well, gold market compared to gold or the gold stocks compared to gold is extremely cheap according to last hundred years So we'll have another frenzy again. I don't know but uh, it seems like um You know normally what comes off the bottom first are the generals and the soldiers come off later So what you want to have the leaders? Um form right now and all of these leaders are pretty much all the ones I'm looking at anyhow are all in uptrend So we're still early in the gold market So but there's a lot of penny stocks in the gold market So and some of these penny stocks are going to probably turn into a hundred dollar bills at some point Over the next several years. So I mean at least what I'm hoping for Well, I I've always thought that maybe the the real big move in gold up higher to a lot of people that are looking for 2400 or 2500 Is going to come when they quit playing with nfts and bitcoin and a lot of these other things that that uh Have been kind of a distraction of where people would probably have picked up gold a long time you know over the last couple of years they've been in these other things And you know, maybe when they get a sour taste in them, maybe they'll come back to Uh the shiny yellow metal Right. Well, you know the bitcoins and all that other stuff, you know You got a piece. I don't even think you even have a piece of paper. I think it's just a Blip on a computer screen somewhere, right? Yeah, I am I'm a fan of it Hey Tim, I want to thank you again for being here If anybody wants the charts that we looked at, uh, just email me at path at tfnn.com and I'll send them to you Thanks again, Tim for being here and uh letting us into your wisdom Tim or at the or dash oracle dot com Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts at tfnn You'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis And it's not just dry tedious text either tfnn airs live financial content streamed live on tfnn.com and tfnn's youtube channel with tiger tv Live every market day from 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern for free Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds tiger tv has eight different shows with expert hosts to help You make the right moves with your money watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? 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Tom will bisect and dissect the markets The Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN And as we get ready to wrap up the end of another excellent power trading hour We look forward to the last hour of the day with Tom O'Brien And just kind of thinking about some of the stuff that we saw or heard with Tim Ord As I said if you want his charts just email me at pathtfnn.com and I'll send them to you I've zipped them up and we're ready to go on that Okay And see you got Hector asking about are we ready to go again in ARQQ You know the the thing I have is you had kind of a false breakdown You came back and you're going sideways But you know you you don't really have a clear signal one way or the other You had a lot of volume one day and it's just gone back into inside days on that You know it's are you going to need something That's stronger right now the indexes are being held up by a handful of I'm going to say six stocks And that's why I'm not incredibly bullish on the rest of the market Those six stocks have a lot of cash and they can buy stuff back But I'm thinking that the S&P has kind of shown that you know other than a couple of stocks It's got a problem going higher. I think we're stalling out here Thinking that the Nasdaq said just a few days behind it We haven't gotten any quite any big signal yet But some of these other stocks that are running today with a 9% move 10% move in Nvidia and AMD Uh taking you right back up to what should be fairly stiff resistance So well, I think the proof of the pudding on whether you should be bullish or bearish Probably coming in the next couple of days probably by tomorrow's close and we shall see So when you can not when you have to and we will return Like the car third to the Philippines tomorrow